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Hot and Cold Baseball Teams
by Matt Fargo - 06/19/2009
The baseball season is in full swing and Matt Fargo will be examining teams that are hot and teams that are not and how they can make us some money. This week he takes a look at some cold teams that may be providing some good value to play against in the upcoming schedule.
Colorado Rockies 33-33 +1.97 Units
You might be thinking that the Rockies are red hot right now so how can they possibly be looked upon as a cold team possibility? Well it is the contrarian thinking that makes Colorado fall into this category. The Rockies are 13-1 over their last 14 games and they simply are not good enough to maintain this run. Despite this run, they are still 10.5 behind the Dodgers which shows how bad of a start they had. Actually, prior to this, Colorado went 2-7 in the nine games leading up to this recent surge.
The Rockies have made this improvement due to starting pitching which is something they are usually not blessed with. They have a 3.48 ERA over the last 10 games and combine that with a solid 3.93 ERA from the bullpen over those 10 games and you can see the massive progress. The issue is that the start of the season was so bad that we can expect this recent success to spiral. As for the offense, there is improvement as well but the Rockies are hitting just .258 on the year as the majority of bats have been struggling the entire season.
Colorado is about to enter a very tough stretch in the schedule. Following a home series this weekend with the Pirates, the Rockies travel for three straight series with three-game sets at the Angels, Athletics and Dodgers. Granted, they are going to be underdogs in most if not all of those games but the recent positive run may force linesmakers to make smaller lines than they normally would. Bettors who prefer playing small to mid-priced favorites will have a lot of opportunities to play against Colorado as a reversal is looming.
Chicago White Sox 31-35 -4.82 Units
Despite being four games under .500, the White Sox are only four games out in the American League Central division behind the Tigers. Things are not going to get easy however so the White Sox could slip further down with a rough upcoming schedule. Chicago was one inning away from heading into this weekend with a four-game winning streak but it blew a 5-1 lead against the Cubs in the eighth inning and eventually lost in the bottom of the ninth. It is just one defeat but losses like that can be tough to recover from and we could see that here.
Pitching has kept the White Sox afloat as their 4.10 ERA is 2nd best in the American League as both the starting pitching and the bullpen have been performing well. The starters have been led by Mark Buehrle who has a 3.43 ERA and while no other fulltime starter has an ERA below 4.00, no other fulltime starter has an ERA over 5.00 and that is key. While the pitching has kept Chicago alive, the bats have held it back from playing better. Chicago is hitting just .251 which is 2nd worst in the American League while the 273 runs scored are third worst.
As mentioned, the schedule is rough to close out June. This weekend, the White Sox close out their road trip with three games at Cincinnati before heading home next week to take on the Dodgers and Cubs in three-game sets. Playing at home is important if we are looking to fade since we will get some excellent numbers on the other side. It also helps knowing Chicago is just 16-18 at home this season. This should be a very good time to go against the White Sox.