Wayne Root Sports Picks For Sale

Hot Streaks and Achievements

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Biography

Wayne Root launched his career on FNN, and then starred on Proline and The Winning Edge TV shows to build the biggest brand in sports handicapping.

Active since:  1985

Location:  Las Vegas, NV

Wayne Root started his career at age 16 when the media dubbed him "The Betting Whizkid" and "the next Jimmy the Greek."  After graduating from prestigious Ivy League Columbia University, Wayne became the sports gaming expert on NBC Radio New York and NBC Radio Chicago.  Soon he was predicting NFL point spread winners on over 100 NBC Source Radio stations nationwide.  By age 27, Wayne was Jimmy “the Greek's” television partner on Financial News Network (now known as CNBC). ONLY IN AMERICA!  Wayne served as FNN’s Oddsmaker, NFL Analyst and host of its pregame and postgame football shows, including FNN Zone,  Huddle Up, Fantasy Zone, and The Fan Speaks Out.  He was also its anchorman for sports scores and updates.

Following FNN, Wayne was the star and rainmaker of the sports handicapping pregame show Proline on USA TV Network for 10 years. Wayne had the most expensive 900 (pay-per-call) numbers in U.S. telemarketing history:  $50 and $100 per call for his sports betting advice.  Millions of sports gamblers called for Wayne’s famous advice. 
 
Wayne’s national TV football pregame show, The Winning Edge aired from 2000 to 2009 on popular national television networks such as Fox Sports Net, Comcast Sports Net, Superstation WGN, Discovery and Spike TV. 
 
Wayne has been profiled by the biggest media in the world, including CNBC, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Equities, Worth, Success, Financial Times and Robb Report. 
 
Wayne literally “wrote the book" on sports gambling — three books to be exact...
 
ROOT on Risk: Betting to Win on Sports
The Zen of Gambling
The King of Vegas' Guide to Gambling
 
Wayne also co-created, co-executive produced and co-hosted a gambling reality TV show on Spike TV (King of Vegas).

In 2006, Wayne became the only Vegas oddsmaker or sports handicapper ever awarded a star on the Las Vegas Walk of Stars.  The Governor of Nevada presented Wayne's star at the ceremony.  It was named "Wayne Root Day" in the state of Nevada and Clark County (the city of Las Vegas).  Wayne's 180-pound granite star sits in the sidewalk on Las Vegas Blvd along with Vegas legends like Elvis Presley, Liberace, Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin, Sammy Davis, Jr., and Siegfield & Roy. 

Some recent highlights:

2020 January and February college basketball Pinnacles 18-8 (70%)
2019 MLB finished in top 5 in USA 
2019 NBA Playoffs 28-13 (68%)
2018 NFL Root Trust won 12 of 17 weeks (71%)
2018 MLB finished in top 8 in USA
2017 March Madness went 71% 

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2021 NFL: AFC East Preview

Wednesday, Jun 16, 2021

In a division long dominated by the Tom Brady led New England Patriots, the GOAT-less AFC East now seems to belong to the surging Buffalo Bills or perhaps the Tua-rich Miami Dolphins, so we look at the predictions, odds, and picks of which of these developing teams could run away with this division. The Buffalo Bills are just a few roster tweaks away from going deeper into the playoffs, so expect them to post yet another productive season with QB Josh Allen rapidly developing on the job.  Buffalo Bills -150 Win total: 10.5 Remember this is a 17 game season The team’s salary cap in 2021 will be lower than expected, so GM Brandon Beane will be forced to get clever this offseason if he expects to use free agency and the upcoming draft to fill in the roster spots he is currently lacking. This includes another edge rusher and some linebacker depth, both of which could help Josh Allen’s offense get back on the field with the talented playmakers he now has as targets, including WRs John Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley, plus soft-handed tight end Dawson Knox. Is this possible? Go two years without losing a division game.  (Probably) Miami Dolphins +325Win total: 9 Given that the 10-6 Dolphins almost made the playoffs last season, they seem to be just a few rosters moves away from getting themselves to that next level, but that is assuming they are happy with Tua Tagovailoa as their franchise quarterback. In his rookie season, Tagovailoa went 6-3 under center, completing 64.1 percent of his passes for just over 1,800 yards and 11 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, numbers that could see improvement as he continues to learn Miami’s offense and adjust to the NFL level. The Dolphins had the third overall pick in the draft and selected Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Because of a strong early schedule, the Dolphins will be 1-3 after four games. Week 1 at New England Week 2 Home vs Buffalo Week 3 at LV Raiders Week 4 Home vs Indianapolis New England Patriots +350Win total: 9 With Cam Newton starting at quarterback in New England last season, the team posted their worst record since the 2000 season and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008, the type of failures that do not sit well with GM and HC Bill Belichick. Now Newton is a question and the Patriots’ starting QB job is open, with backups Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer next in line, though chances are the team’s front office is looking to bring in some more veteran help at QB using free agency the way they did last offseason. For the first time in head coach Bill Belichick's 21-year tenure, the New England Patriots have drafted a quarterback in the first round. The Patriots selected Mac Jones from the University of Alabama with the 15th overall pick during the 2021 NFL draft. But there are plenty of holes to fill in New England’s roster, including in a defense that is historically excellent, so the Patriots used the draft to snag some young and affordable defensive talent to begin rebuilding the team on that side of the ball. The Patriots will be 3-0 entering their Week 4 matchup against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who will also be 3-0 entering the game -- further heightening the hype and excitement for what promises to be one of the most memorable nights in Gillette Stadium history.  New York Jets +2000 Win total: 6.5 The Jets’ front office was able to land the highly coveted Robert Saleh as their new head coach, the former defensive guru, and coordinator for the 49ers who was destined to lead his own NFL team at some point. Saleh has inherited a mess in New York, his Jets roster as holey as Swiss cheese on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold had become QB non gratis after failing to ever lead the Jets to the postseason and was traded to Carolina for draft picks. The Jets took BYU quarterback Zach Wilson with the second pick overall. New coach, new quarterback, new offensive scheme, new defensive scheme, pretty much new everything -- and that's a good thing because the old way stunk. The Added 17th Game   The 17th game for AFC East teams that was implemented by the NFL for 2021 comes at home against the NFC East:  Washington at Bills Giants at Dolphins Cowboys at Patriots Eagles at Jets

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50 Days From the MLB Trade Deadline

Wednesday, Jun 16, 2021

BEST PITCHER THAT COULD PUT YOU OVER THE TOPThis pitcher could get many teams to the World Series.  Max Scherzer Washington’s injury woes — Juan Soto and Stephen Strasburg are both on the injured list — and underperforming rotation have some wondering if the Nationals would look to deal Scherzer this summer if the season went awry. NEW YORK YANKEES  As of Tuesday, the Yankees sat in third place in the AL East at 33-32, 10 games behind Tampa Bay and seven behind Boston. They are 2.5 games behind in the Wild Card race. Max Scherzer is as lethal as ever, even as he approaches his 37th birthday four days before the July 31deadline. His 2.22 ERA is eighth in MLB and he’s only allowed 48 hits in 77 innings entering his start last week against the Giants. He has fanned 104, held opponents to a .180 average and has an 0.82 WHIP. Remember how he looked May 8 at Yankee Stadium? He annihilated the Yanks lineup, allowing two hits and a run in 7.1 innings while striking out 14 and walking one. All of that would make the future Hall of Famer a nifty complement to Gerrit Cole. The two could help the Yanks get to October and then be an intimidating 1-2 punch in any playoff series. Are there other’s? MANY!! ST LOUIS CARDINALS  The perfect fit is with the St. Louis Cardinals, who passed on the hometown hero as a free agent. The Cardinals, with three-fifths of their starting rotation on the injured list – including ace Jack Flaherty who could be out two months with his oblique injury – are in desperate need for a starter. Scherzer is a free agent at the season’s conclusion, and with his family still living in the St. Louis area, they would have a huge advantage retaining him. The Cardinals, after getting All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado in February, could easily package top third-base prospect Nolan Gorman. TAMPA BAY RAYS Do you want to return to the World Series? It’s hard to imagine a better bet to be made with $12 million than on a half season of Max Scherzer.The Rays are in first place; two games ahead of Boston and six ahead of the Yankees.  50 Day Watch There are 50 days left before teams have to officially decide whether they keep shopping, start selling, or simply wait until the next sale this winter. Washington is 28-35 (.444) entering Tuesday and in fourth place in the NL East. They are seven games out in the division and nine games out in the NL Wild Card race. If they sink further, perhaps they dangle Scherzer and re-tool around Juan Soto and Trea Turner. Stay tuned for a potential shopping spree coming to a city near you.

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2021 NFL Draft: Top 5 Quarterbacks

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

ouldn’t it be sweet if we could see all these young men develop into the likes of a Brady, Mahomes, Favre, Montana or Marino? So much talent to evaluate and every General Manager is dropping bottles of Tums sweating this week and the next few months. QB’s make the NFL teams their brand and the franchise while missing on a top draft choice will have some coaches fired down the line. We wish all these players the best this week and in the years to come.     1. Trevor Lawrence—-Clemson Height: 6’6″ Weight: 213  Unless something bizarre happens, Lawrence is headed to Jacksonville where he’ll hook up with Urban Meyer and the organization will dip into its deep pool of available cash and hopefully surround him with more than just a patchwork offensive line. How quickly he learns what he can’t get away with against NFL defenses is the determinant to how good he’ll be. Lawrence is regarded as the safest bet at quarterback since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford in 2012, played seven seasons and retired before the age of 30. Lawrence threw 90 touchdowns and 17 picks in three seasons at Clemson and runs like a deer. His game and playing style is so well-rounded that he can function in virtually any offense that awaits him in the NFL. His arm is more then sufficient to run a vertical passing game. His mind is quick enough and his ball placement is good enough to work in a West Coast system.  Mechanically Lawrence is as solid as it gets, and when you study him pay attention to his footwork in the pocket. Whether throwing from clean pockets or being forced to move and reset, Lawrence stays mechanically sound in those moments from head to toe.  Hopefully, having been the number quarterback for the past two years, nothing has changed his desires or leadership qualities along with his ego.   2. Zach Wilson——BYU Height:  6’2″  Weight: 214  Zach is a truly great thrower. His quick and nifty mobility is a complement to his game rather than a staple to old school drop back passer. When it comes to ball placement, accuracy, release, throwing a catchable ball he’s already there. Because of the teams quality of opponents played last season, some consider that a negative. He may have to work harder and get coached for a year on the sidelines like Mahomes did his rookie year. As a compliment, he has some Josh Rosen/Baker Mayfield to his style. Given how the league currently views Patrick Mahomes it is easy to see why Wilson is making a charge for QB1 on some boards. You can see how Wilson is reminiscent of Mahomes on almost every single throw. From the ability to make off-platform throws with ease, his willingness to create outside of the pocket, and his arm aggression, Wilson looks like a baby Mahomes on the field. 3. Justin Fields—-Ohio St Height: 6′ 2 3/4″ Weight: 227  His tools – strong arm, clean mechanics, accuracy, toughness, speed and power – are all there. Fields has that unknown risk factor related to how much of their brilliance is attributable to being surrounded by so much talent at OSU. His biggest claim was an eye-popping performance in the national semifinal game against Clemson which shot his stock up. After losing to Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers two seasons ago, Fields put on a show against them this past year, throwing six touchdowns, many of them after taking a brutal hit in the first half. Athleticism is one of his strengths, as Fields is a truly athletic quarterback that has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton. He posted recently a video on Twitter of him running a hand-timed 4.41 40-yard dash  4. Mac Jones—-Alabama  Height: 6’2″ Weight: 217  In the National Championship Game against Ohio State, Jones was 36 of 45 passes for 464 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. So is that why San Francisco trade up for a chance to draft him? Jones is not very powerfully built and the ball doesn’t pop off his hand with velocity like it does for the other four guys. He seems like a guy with a high floor and a low ceiling. With no combine this year, it’s somewhat difficult to grade him. How much should be attributed to the Alabama program and two incredible wide receivers?  He literally had better skill position players in Tuscaloosa than Cam Newton had in Foxboro. Mac’s name is McCorkle — Mac for short — which is a fact that I think you should know to win a trivia bet. Beyond that, however, Jones was the best at Pro Football Focus’s Adjusted Completion Percentage last season, positing a whopping number of 84.2%. Jones’ greatest strength is his accuracy, deep ball and ability to work at all three levels. He can move a little but he’s not particularly athletic and if he’s behind a less-than-stellar line, he’s going to have little elusiveness to fall back on.   5. Trey Lance——North Dakota St Height:  6′ 3 3/8″ Weight: 224  In his last full season, Lance threw 28 touchdowns and zero picks as a redshirt freshman in 2019. Because of Covid, his team only played one game in 2020. Much like Josh Allen of Buffalo when he was drafted and could go very deep, Lance may throw the best deep ball of any of the quarterbacks in this draft. There are some clear strengths that he offers. Easy arm talent is the first such strength. All of the top four quarterbacks in this class have what you might consider “plus” arms but Lance might have the best of the bunch. Effortless velocity shows up in every game. Then there is the athletic ability. Lance is a weapon with the football in his hands, and his rushing production at NDSU backs that up.  He’s exceptionally poised in the pocket and throws with an excellent base and has played in the cold weather as did Allen in Wyoming. He’s also a better than capable runner offering that new type of quarterback that coaches want. Because of just one season of FCS football under his belt, his decision-making and reading defenses skills will need time to grow.

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Baseball Betting: Don't Wait for Football - Get the MLB Profits Now

Tuesday, Apr 13, 2021

Betting Baseball Mission Statement  Upon completion of reading this, you should be able to see why baseball is by far the best sport to invest your money. With the house edge being significantly smaller compared to other sports, and the ability to predict future outcomes, baseball can quite easily and most definitely become your most profitable sport to bet. The Largest Sample Size Wins What statistic do you think is more reliable – Aaron Rodgers’ completion percentage in 16 games, or Juan Soto’s batting average in 162 games? If you have taken any kind of statistics course, you know that larger sample sizes are much more predictive. With so many measurable skills and outcomes, with consistently improving analytics readily available to anyone, over a long 162 game season, it’s relatively easy to create a predictive model for baseball (relative to other sports). And it’s not hard to convince anyone of the logic that this is very true and the reason that Sportsbooks place betting limits on baseball but not on football. Out of all the major American sports, baseball is by far the leader in analytics, research, and advanced statistics. Now popularly known as sabermetrics, this phenomenon has allowed front offices and sports bettors alike to more accurately project a game’s outcome. It comes with more bang for your buck. The only risk the players may have occasionally is less action but more profits to the bankroll to make up that shortcoming.  Point Spread vs Moneyline Betting Football and basketball regularly make up about two-thirds of all bets placed in the United States. In these sports, most bets are made on the point spread. Instead of simply betting who will win the game, most bettors bet HOW MUCH a team will win (or lose) by in football and basketball. Let’s look to understand the difference of laying points vs betting moneylines. In football, if you lay -7 points and bet the favorite and the score is 20-17 with 1:45 to play, the favorite will simply play to use up the clock, maybe kick a field goal and win by by six points. You lose your bet even tho the favorite won the game 23-17. Has the following happened to you betting a top 25 team in hoops? In basketball, you bet the favorite to cover a -12 point spread. With 1:25 to play and up 70-55, the home team favorite calls time out and sends in the second team substitutes. Final score is 72-62. You lose your bet even tho the favorite won the game. Does that sound all too familiar? Two favorites lose and the bettor goes 0-2.  Batter Up...Bet Baseball  In baseball, it’s who wins the game. If the LA Dodgers are playing the Colorado Rockies and you bet the Dodgers, all the Dodgers have to do is win the game...period. A game where you don’t have to win by a set amount. Just win the game and get paid. Additionally, in baseball, no matter who I pick though, I know that either team will try to “win” the game. Players will try to score runs on offense, prevent runs on defense, and managers will use strategies to optimize the team’s chance of winning – thus enhancing the chances of my bet winning. This doesn’t happen when betting point “spreads” in football or basketball. Why To Consider The House Edge The house edge for baseball is typically half that of point spread odds. Because baseball betting doesn’t have the same draw and popularity of football and basketball, sportsbooks cut their odds prices a long time ago to attract more action. Instead of the traditional -110 odds for even match-ups, -105 is now the norm for baseball. This drops the house edge from 4.55% to 2.44% using the same calculations as above. However, the price advantage doesn’t stop there. For each dollar bet, there is always a ten-cent difference between the amount required to win $1 with a bet on the favorite and the payout a $1 bet on the underdog will win. This difference, or spread, is where the term “dime line” comes from and is the number one reason why one definitely needs to concentrate on baseball. The Bottom Line Assuming you have created a model that gives you a positive expected value, the longer season is an incredible benefit. Compare this to a casino owning a roulette table which has a positive expected value of 5.26%. Would you rather own it for one hour, one day or one month? A lot of variance can happen in one hour and you might not make a profit despite the 5.26% edge. HOWEVER, this variance should smooth out, or regress to the mean over a longer period of time (such as 24 hours or 30 days). Compare this example to the difference between an NFL season and MLB season. In a 16-week NFL regular season, there are 256 NFL football games versus 2430 total baseball games over a 162-game season. Even if you built an NFL model with a positive expected value, there’s a decent chance you will lose money with such a small sample. By stretching this advantage over 2430 games, you are much more likely to make a profit. So lastly, are you in this for action or in this to make a profit? The baseball is in your hand; throw some strikes and and then hit it out of the ballpark. 

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Late-Season NBA Tips

Tuesday, Apr 13, 2021

Pay Close Attention To Late-Season Changes Smart, expert sports bettors know that it pays to be aware of what the betting public is likely to think and do in a particular situation because that will have an impact on how the lines are set, how they move, and where the value can be found. With my 35 years of experience, I can single handily tell you the Oddsmakers line on the next game of the one just played based on the previous play and how the public perceived the final result. This is especially true heading into the playoffs at the end of the year. The public thinks that teams are scripted by the NBA for playoffs seeding and who generates the best TV money. I certainly pay attention to that.  But more importantly, seeing an improvement late in a playoff-borderline team making a late season charge is certainly different than a team in fourth with no chance to move up to the number three seed, for solid information.   Understanding Momentum  There are all sorts of factors that can lead to a winning streak such as a dose of increased confidence, good health, an easy schedule, and luck among them. To put too much faith in momentum is to believe too strongly that what has happened in the past has a direct bearing on what will happen in the next game. That makes momentum a dangerous concept for NBA sports bettors. Understand what the changes are and look for solid reasons for better play for example. Let’s certainly not ignore negative momentum as internally there could also be reason to go against a certain team. There are usually glaring reason for such shifts in players play or a team’s performance. More important than momentum are matchups. Some teams play better at a slower tempo while other love the transition game. Certain teams defend the perimeter neutralizing the opponent’s three point shooting.   Look For Road Results  One of the simplest ways to measure how tough and talented a NBA team really is is to look at their performance on the road. This is an even bigger factor in the playoffs. Studies have shown that the biggest reason that home court advantage exists is the crowd. With Covid restrictions during the regular season, take that into account. As we move into post-season, the NBA may admit fans. That momentum of having crowds finally would probably help the home underdogs more than anyone. The officials normally are well aware of the crowd, and are not interested in making that crowd angry, so they subconsciously give the home team some advantages. In the playoffs the crowds and the fans are more enthusiastic and vocal. That means that home court advantage is going to be tougher to overcome in the playoffs than it might be in the middle of the regular season. A team that appears to have a lot of momentum on the road is one that is probably tough enough to not be bothered by the extra challenges the playoff offers when they are on their opponent’s hardwood. That will increase their chances of playoff success, and therefore makes them more interesting for sports bettors depending on how big a favorite they are for that particular game.   When a Good Team is Struggling  Let’s first find out why a good team is struggling late in the season. Are their players being rested? Was there a “key” injury? Is their regular season standings set to where they can’t move up in seedings? We always find out the “why”. More significant than a lot of momentum heading into the playoffs is the opposite – a total absence of momentum. Some strong contenders will perform at less than their potential down the stretch because they are looking forward to the playoffs and have little left to accomplish in the regular season. Sometimes, though, the struggles of a good team will go well beyond just trying to save themselves. If a team is losing games they should be able to win, performing well below expectations statistically, and bickering or exhibiting a bad attitude in the press, then it could be an important sign that the team isn’t as ready for the league playoffs as they should be, and may not be as strong in the playoffs as their record would suggest. This is especially true for the lower seeded team that barely make the playoffs. They may have extreme talent but are very young and are fighting among themselves.  Nice Betting Value Is Apparent  It usually happens in the first round of the playoffs. Some team that has a mediocre over-all win/loss regular season record may be playing their best basketball. Teams that were 15-26 the first part of the season may have for some important list of variables completely did an about face and finished 26-15. That’s the key stat!! If a team has been shooting better from the field, defending better on the perimeter and under the basket, or rebounding better recently then they did on the whole year then it’s quite possible that they have taken their game to a new level. Perhaps they are more comfortable with each other, or their coaches have found a better way to get through to them, or they are healthy. That’s the value of great coaches. They know the season is long and they’ll use all 82 regular season games to adjust the lineups and find the right chemistry. Whatever the reason, this type of momentum is very valuable for bettors because it can lead to a situation in which a team is better than their record, and therefore better than a lot of casual bettors will assume them to be. That could lead to nice value for the basketball bettor.

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Betting Against the Public in College Hoops: NCAA Basketball Tournament

Sunday, Mar 14, 2021

March Madness 2021 Every March the public gears up for the single best sporting event on planet Earth. Four weeks of daily college basketball. Businesses run promotions around this craziness. Betting pools are in every office. Wives sit with husbands to watch “their college team”. The word “madness” might not tell the entire story. Sharp gamblers love when the public is involved. They continually make our handicapping easier year after year. We have a good idea who will win prior to tip off. When the public is involved, they become our barometer of betting. Different Strategy for March Madness   There is increased public attention as we near the NCAA Tournament — so Betting Against the Public works particularly well at this time of the college basketball season. The annual countdown to March Madness begins anew. Although many casual fans wait until tournament time before regularly watching college hoops, the long duration of the regular season plus the copious number of Division 1 programs creates ample opportunities for contrarian sports bettors to extract value.  The Public Begins Madness Betting   Betting Against the Public has proven to work across all of the major sports, but March Madness is a special time of year. The public loves to bet big name favorites. Their knowledge is based on looking at a top 25 poll and then laying double digits.  When one team garners more than 60% of the bets and is favored by at least 14 points, the favorite wins against the spread 56.5% of the time.  Betting Trends and Tools  These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use “consensus” numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages and analysis accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace. College basketball offers sports investors many investment opportunities — and at the same time, many challenges.  We have many tools that sports investors can use for college hoops. Tools that the sports professionals utilize hourly. This includes bread-and-butter sports investing tools such as Betting Percentages and Line Moves. In addition, the Number of Bets placed at the counter is often overlooked as an indicator and the public doesn’t have access to that very important information. Parley cards are analyzed and put into algorithms for review.  Why Bet Contrarian to the Public?  The value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on the game so, naturally, it’s more lucrative to bet against the public when the volume of bets increases during March Madness. If more bets are being placed on a game, it’s more likely that oddsmakers will be forced to adjust their lines based on an influx of “square” or “public” money. These artificially inflated lines create value for anybody willing to take the unpopular side of a game. For example; would the public bet Ball St +8.5 to beat UCLA? Probably not. Would the public be inclined to wager on Michigan -18 against San Diego St? Most definitely! Contrary to popular belief. The oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. They take it in account prior to releasing the point spreads. Over the course of the day, market-setting sportsbooks allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. It’s only in the most heavily bet games (where sportsbooks have high levels of potential liability) that public money can affect the spread. Sharp bettors get the advantage from knowing the public’s side without the penalty of any line movement. The public rarely will move the betting number.  Oddsmakers Advantage with Lines  Public bettors overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, which makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint. It’s human nature to ROOT for winners and scoring, and the media’s propensity to overhype these teams only exasperates this tendency. The sharpest Vegas bettors certainly take advantage of this ongoing betting style. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines to exploit the tendencies of casual bettors. Since the “beginning” of time, the majority of public bettors have taken the underdog in just 22.65% of all college basketball games. That number is fairly consistent, regardless of how many bets are placed on each game. But what happens in the rare instances where the majority of public bettors are taking the underdog? Is there still value betting against the public? In those cases, the sharps could lay off that game. Again, if a game has 70% on the same side whether it’s the favorite or the underdog, since we don’t have to bet every game; we analyze, decide and move on. We’re not in the Madness for action, TV games or betting our favorite teams and alma mater. We’re in it to WIN. Our entertainment is always about WINNING.   Let the Madness begin.

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The Best NCAA Basketball Prop Bet for 2021

Friday, Feb 26, 2021

THE PROP BETThere’s a great prop bet in Las Vegas that gives you action among every team in all of college basketball. It’s this:#1 Gonzaga and #2 Baylor (+110) vs. The Field (-120).   THE ZAGS and THE BEARS This side is the underdog, the top two teams all season. Both teams are far ahead of their closest competition in terms of talent, rankings and athleticism. Gonzaga and Baylor are a combined 40-0 and are the underdogs. That’s what makes this such a great bet.   THE FIELD Let’s not look at all 64 teams but some possibilities for the sweet 16. We already know two of the teams so follow here:  THE BIG TEN There are four teams from the Big Ten sitting high in the top 5 rankings: Michigan 16-1, Ohio St 18-5 and Illinois 16-6. These three teams have fought with each other and had to play Iowa, Wisconsin and at Minnesota. Michigan is hot and talented.   THE BIG 12 From the difficult Big 12 we have good competition all throughout the conference but especially with Oklahoma 14-6, West Virginia 16-6, Texas at 14-6 and a resurrected Kansas team 17-8. All have experience with coaching at this level. THE SEC Two very good teams are Alabama 18-5 and Arkansas 17-5 from the SEC which are both high scoring offensive machines.   THE ACC The ACC has Florida St 13-3 and Virginia at 15-5. Duke is left to begging for a bid. FSU will be dangerous. BIG EAST Let’s not forget the Big East with Villanova 15-3 and Creighton at 16-5. Villanova just hasn’t had to play great competition. SLEEPER’S Houston 18-3 could be our final Sweet 16 entrant. But for fun, let’s add Loyola-Chicago 19-4 and San Diego St 17-4 from the Mountain West. Houston has offense, Loyola-Chicago has their Nun from two years ago and SD St places great defense.   CONSIDER THIS: Here are some factors to consider: 1. Gonzaga and Baylor wouldn’t meet until the final four due to seeding.  2. The other 14 teams certainly can knock each other off and will. 3. Upsets in round one and two will definitely happen to a few teams from the field.  4. In reality, Gonzaga and Baylor might only have to squeeze by the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight.   FINAL 4 FOR EXTRA PROFITS  Once we get to the Saturday portion of the Final Four, Gonzaga and Baylor could luck out and not meet. However, if so, then you’ll have a great bet on the Monday Championship Game as you’d get either team as a pick em because of this current wager and the opportunity to middle as their opponent would be getting 8 points or more.

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NCAA Tournament Betting Prep

Friday, Feb 26, 2021

Who’s on the Bubble?March 1st is Monday. There’s an excitement in the air. There’s madness to this month. March Madness. It is officially the time of year where teams start to cement their standings for the NCAA Tournament. There’s the beginning of new life for many teams after a very difficult year. This also means that it becomes more clear which teams are on the bubble. Plenty of time remains in the season, but it appears that the bubble is stronger compared to years past.  As of now, teams like Stanford, Richmond, and SMU are on the outside looking in along with other hopefuls. Will LSU (13-6) be considered? Or an 11-4 Xavier team? One could make a case for Maryland (13-10), Minnesota (13-9) and Indiana (12-9) from playing in the very difficult Big Ten. We need to also follow Texas Tech and Oklahoma St from the Big 12. This question about these teams really shows how strong the field must be.  These are teams that I was bullish off and on throughout the season who remain legitimate tournament threats if they find their way in or redefine their form and shooting touch. What this means is that the programs that do end up making it, I would most likely favor them this year in their early March Madness matchups.  Injuries vs Covid Remember to follow who’s been playing recently and who hasn’t. Are these recent developments or an injury from a month ago that impacted their season way back.  What seems like an obvious tip is actually quite difficult at times, considering how many teams there are in DI basketball. It is necessary to track team injuries when filling out your bracket simply because a team can obviously be over valued and over-ranked without their best player playing much or recently returning. He might have fresh legs but lost his shooting touch. That’s box scores information that we perform but certainly pays huge dividends.  Not only this, but remember to consider if a team lost a game when they weren’t playing at full strength or were perhaps without their head coach due to COVID protocols. Additionally, considering how a team played when certain players were injured compared to where they stand come tournament time is a sharp angle to take and will provide a leg up against your pool. If their replacements did a great job, note that as their bench strength deepened.  Conference Tournaments Teams that are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives may get in; but may be drained by that Thursday start of March Madness. Any bubble team that had to win their own conference tournament to move forward most likely won’t go far after playing three grueling days to get there. For example, it Duke won the ACC tournament, they’re in but still an underachieving but popular betting team this year. Watch those teams that happened to get hot in those conference tournaments.  Let’s all get crazy ready for March Madness. We’ll be focused and refocused every day of March.  Good Luck,Wayne 

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That First 2.3 Million Dollar Super Bowl Bet

Monday, Feb 01, 2021

alAll Super Bowl sports bettors should be focusing on many things other than those million-dollar bets that the media loves to report. Sportsbooks are filled with very smart $1000 bettors and right next to them in line to wager is that anonymous ego driven wealthy casino customer. It's a guarantee the hotel/casino PR Department will make his bet a media sensation. ESPN, Yahoo Sports and BETMGM, Caesars or the Las Vegas Westgate will be the first to call them for this story. But what does it really mean? Who cares what some anonymous millionaire bet or how much he wagered? In reality, which side does the bettor who actually earns his living from sports gambling like? The Handicapping Professional is your BEST BET!! Successful sports bettors don’t parade around town bragging about the size of their bets. They are stealth as they don't need everyone to know information which may affect the betting number as they bet at many different sports books grabbing the best numbers.  Someone bet $2.3 million dollars on the Buccaneers in a single wager this week. ESPN was all over it as were others. They reported everything except the person's identity. That's fair but do you want to follow a ghost bettor? What happens when another gambler bets $3.0 million on the Chiefs two days later? Now who do you follow? Neither!! Because they don't matter. Their bets are a creation by the media about someone that has too much money with the casinos not missing a beat.   If a celebrity makes the wager, sure, that’s news just not entertainment news. If Bill Gates makes a $3.0 million bet, that's newsworthy to some but not gambling news. If the "mattress-man" from Houston makes a huge bet, that's worthy of business news tying bets into a self serving store-wide promotion. The absolute real joke is back on those bettors. If the betting line didn’t move, we immediately know that even the sports books had no respect for those wagers.  Public money, even this large, doesn’t move anything. It just goes into their accounting department to be added to the balance sheet.   This is where astute bettors, sharps, math gurus and wise guys along with sports handicapping professionals such as Wayne Allyn Root are truly smarter than the house. And that’s why they win. These guys are your line movers. These players are respected and someone you should follow. Those other guys are basically some millionaire media creation. The real sports betting professionals such as Wayne Allyn Root will not only give great information on the side and total but in this new age era of 400 prop bets is second to none in terms of how to bet the Super Bowl.  Consider this one example of clearly thinking out of the box and using a prop bet for a huge score. When Denver met Carolina, that game was played with an older Peyton Manning at quarterback who could barely launch the football downfield. Wayne Root liked the Broncos side. But why bet $1100 to win $1000 without breaking down why the Broncos would win? His conclusion was that Manning would NOT throw them into the winners circle. It had to be won by defense. So if that was the case, Wayne Allyn Root made and advised all to bet on Von Miller to win the MVP at 16/1 odds. Von Miller did win the MVP and that same $1000 wager PAID A STAGGERING $16,000. That's the difference between an ego driven wealthy media and casino creation and your seasoned sports betting professional such as Wayne Allyn Root. His side, total and top 15 Super Bowl Prop bets are highly anticipated and will be released by Wednesday for all. 

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Follow the Money to Riches in Sports Betting

Wednesday, Jan 20, 2021

Big Connections Needed Unless you’re one with big connections, you can’t easily find out how much money has been bet on each team in a particular game. Many like to think they know, and some do, but trust that a 35 year betting sports professional like myself certainly does. It’s my job and duty to “follow the money”. What I want to verify is it 2500 public bettors betting $200 each for $500,000 or three sharp players giving $500,000 in three different bets. That’s good and solid information that’s needed.  Analyzing the Marketplace  What you can find out, though, is how many bets by percentage have been placed on each team by monitoring as many sports books as you can. When we see a game in which a huge majority of the bets – 70 percent or more – are on one team we would typically expect the odds for that team to get less attractive. That’s the sign of public money coming in. But is the public money only showing up at one betting site or across all of Vegas and offshore? The books generally like to have action that is closed to balanced so that they can make profits with little risk, so they will change the lines to attract action to one team to achieve that balance. This will give you data on where the marketplace is betting. It will additionally allow you to see the line movement at different betting establishments.  Sharp Money Bets When a game moves in the opposite direction to what you would expect are you confused? Sometimes, though, we will see games in which the large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves the opposite expected direction to make that team even more attractive. What that tells us is that the small number of bettors on the less popular team have bet more money than the large number of bettors on the popular team.  Do you Recognize the Upset? If the team’s point spread moves significantly then we know that the sharps bet the game aggressively. It can be profitable by betting against the public in these situations as the public. This is a great way to spot teams that are ready to pull off a big upset – something that can lead to very profitable moneyline bets. Even if the moneyline bets fail, the point spread bets that I post succeed and are successful a majority of the time.  See you in the Winner’s Circle and at the Cash Window

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Saints/Buccaneers: Is the Third Time the Charm?

Friday, Jan 15, 2021

Guaranteed to hear this statement this week. All week, you will hear the self-proclaimed experts tell you it is difficult to beat a team three times in one season. Let’s look at the weekend game that this aspires to:  the NFL’s  Tampa Bay vs New Orleans game.  One of the conventional wisdoms about the difficulty of dominating opponents you see on a regular basis doesn’t hold up to actual math, which is good news for people worried about the Saints as they play Tampa Sunday.  The History of Three-Peats Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs. The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which favors New Orleans. In the season opener, the Saints beat the Bucs by 11 points, and then the Saints shocked Tampa Bay on the road in the rematch, 38-3. Will Tom Brady be that special quarterback that will be able to break this trend? Wayne Root has a solid personal opinion about this situation after studying these situations for over 34 years.   Using a Baseball Analysis Manager Tony La Russa said he didn't like playing doubleheaders because it's hard to beat the same team twice in one day. But football is not two games. The point is that if you beat an opponent twice, you have proven your opponent to be inferior.  The Tom Brady Effect We shall see if the Tom Brady effect will apply or the Saints going for the 3-0 sweep. Playing on the road does not help his case completely. The home team going for the sweep is also 12-5, 71%. Yet for some reason, everyone is going to talk about the difficulty of beating a team three times in one year. The Dallas Effect NFL teams outside of Dallas have a .706 winning percentage when attempting to beat a team for the third time in one season because the Cowboys are 0-2. So bottom line, pay attention to handicapping professionals for real truths. I guarantee that you will hear how hard beating the same team three times this year more than once. To base a prediction on a game based on something a person believes to be true, even though we now know it is not, shows a lack of research and diminishes one's credibility. And that’s why you stick to Wayne Allyn Root.  

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Coach Belichick: Make that phone call Monday!

Friday, Jan 01, 2021

The City of Angels:Los Angeles, located on a broad basin in Southern California, the city is surrounded by vast mountain ranges, valleys, forests, beautiful beaches along the Pacific Ocean, and nearby desert. It is the home to the World Champions; Dodgers and Lakers.  Home of World Champions: Only the NFL is missing a World championship team. And it won’t be the Rams with their quarterback, Jared Goff. An NFL team needs to start with two things. A successful and innovative head coach and a franchise quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers will fire their coach Monday and whomever takes the job will inherit an upcoming franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. Enter Bill Belichick: He’s doesn’t have the time nor the patience to search for the next Tom Brady. Why should he? It’s sitting 3500 miles from him in sunny warm California.  All Bill has to do is “make the call,” throw away his winter clothes and grab his shades and head to the airport to join the Dodgers, Lakers and his new LA Chargers team. And if I was Owner Dean Spanos, I’d take my $18M home in La Jolla and give it to Coach Belichick. It’s no easy task filling up a 70,000 seat stadium with the competition coming from the Rams, Lakers, Dodgers and USC. That calls for marketing out of the box skills or one incredible hire.  Belichick’s opinion on Herbert: “He’s impressive – very talented player, tall, sees things well, has a good arm, can certainly make all the throws,” Belichick said of Herbert. “He’s athletic, can escape the pocket, smart. They do a number of things at the line of scrimmage – you’ve seen him check plays, audible against pressure, change plays against check-with-me type situations.  Furthermore: So, it looks like he’s going be a good quarterback for a long time, a lot to work with and I know he’s a smart, hard-working kid that likes football and I’m sure he will continue to get better, as he has this year throughout the course of the season. He’s improved from the early games that I’ve watched, and like I said, has a lot of good skill players to work with – good tight end, good backs, good receivers. So, yeah, he’s a good player.”  Will he; Should he: While Belichick highlighted all of his strengths, his notorious for exploiting rookie quarterback’s weaknesses. Maybe he didn’t notice any or maybe he’s headed west and doesn’t want to mess with his head. There’s no denying that Belichick would garner some buzz in the City of Angels. Belichick, who has a proven track record of winning, would be in a situation where he has the pieces to make a big run. Bottom line: They’ve got a star quarterback and they’re in a crowded sports market. Justin and Belichick would sell tickets for a franchise who can’t sell tickets. Quarterback Justin Herbert would have a coach that helped a guy develop into one of the best at his position, with that being Tom Brady.  Season tickets, going fast: They get someone to help sell tickets. It sounds like an exhausting argument, and it is, but the goal of upper-management is to make this team as successful and profitable as possible. There definitely is an added benefit to having Herbert and Belichick together to sell tickets. And having a defensive minded coach is exactly what the Chargers need to put with their offense.

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There's No Tanking in the NFL

Wednesday, Dec 23, 2020

THE FANS BELIEVE THISIn the NFL, there’s is no tanking to improve for draft positions. Many have thought so but it’s doubtful it’s gone from average Joes setting up a scenario for their team to justify whatever they wanted to fit their own agenda. “Please lose so we get the Number One selection”.  ORGANIZATION RESET Let me explain what is real and is very much defined by the teams actions. It’s call an “organization reset of assets”. That’s a fancy term for dumping players; not games. That’s a slick and smart way to dump salaries and clear cap space. This is management’s and the owners way of moving forward.  LAST YEAR MIAMI FOR TUA When the Miami Dolphins were dumping and trading their best players for their own organization reset, they not only lost games but we’re getting blown out. One couldn’t have a discussion without hearing how Miami was setting themselves up to draft Alabama’s quarterback, Tua. It was a sure bet as the losses piled up. Then what happened? They began to win. They actually finished the season with five (5) wins. What happened? They reset and properly allocated their organization’s assets. They dumped huge contracts.  2019 to 2020 RESULTS They NEVER lost a game on purpose. They reset for this year. If you look at the success of what they managed to do in a year; few would have believed they’d go from 0-10 last year to winning five games to eliminating New England from the playoffs last week to themselves at even money to make it into the wild card arena of the NFL playoffs. Cincinnati ended up choosing Joe Burrow as the first selection.   THE JETS WIN This brings me to 2020 with the race of becoming this year's worst team. The word was that the Jets had a firm hold on first place. But the head coach wouldn’t sign off on continuous losing. And why would he? He’s 99% for sure fired in two weeks. Why leave what he needed as a franchise quarterback for the new head coach to walk into? Why would Sam Darnold want to lose so that he would lose his job as the Jets' starting quarterback? He may not get another chance after this job. THE COWBOYS  If someone was to tank and trade up, the Cowboys could not renew Dak Prescott at $35M and lose the past two weeks. But they didn’t. In fact, they went winner, winner and still could make the playoffs.  THE TALENT IS UNPROVEN  Keep in mind the there are many talented players in the top six draft spots coming out of college. And none are guaranteed to be the next superstar. Who knows where the next Patrick Mahomes will come from? Or the next sixth-round pick as in Tom Brady. What about the next Dick Butkus? There’s always that next one. Or play, reset and get into the first six picks.   PLAYERS PLAY TO WIN This is why players won’t go 0-16. No matter what.  And it’s not proven that the coach or management have asked for that. Did you see the celebration for the Jets after Sunday’s defeat on the road against the Rams as a 17-point dog?  They did not want to be in the same all-time losers category as only two other teams are presently in. Did you see the clips of how much it meant for Cincinnati to defeat the Steelers as a 13.5-point underdog? Maybe the Jacksonville Jags will win a game in their last two weeks? But they won’t try to lose! WILL THE JAGS HOLD ON Only two games remain, but the Jaguars’ horrendous season can’t end soon enough. Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry took to Twitter Sunday, writing that the New York Jets delivered an early Christmas present to Jacksonville. Indeed, the Jaguars are now in the driver’s seat to land Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft because of the Jets' upset of the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, on Sunday to notch their first win of the season. JAGS FINAL TWO GAMES Now all they need to do is lose the final two games against Chicago Bears this upcoming Sunday at TIAA Bank Field, and the Indianapolis Colts in the season finale. Although the Jaguars and Jets now have identical 1-13 records, the Jaguars own the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker for the No. 1 overall pick. Will they tank or are they just bad enough to lose while playing and giving 100%?  I say there’s no tanking at all. But in the upcoming months, the Jags will get Trevor Lawrence on a cheap five-year contract and use cap space to protect their investment with some offensive lineman picks a big backfield blockers. Now that’s an organizational reset of assets. If they can only hold on and gain two more losses. 

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NFL Week 14: News, Results and Insights

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

Highlights, Questions and Comments  Philadelphia owes him $62M: In five seasons under Coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 11-3 in games not started by Carson Wentz (including the playoffs) and 35-33-1 with Wentz starting. Hard choices can be costly.  Drew Brees to start or wait?? Taysom Hill passed for a career-high 291 yards, but he also threw an interception and lost a fumble. With 11 cracked ribs, let him heal.  We knew he’d be a great one!! Washington’s rookie defensive end Chase Young put on a show with six tackles, a sack, two passes defended, two quarterback hits and a 47-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. Defense Defense Defense.  Strong case for MVP: Derrick Henry is leading the N.F.L. with 1,532 yards rushing this season — just 8 short of the total he led the N.F.L. with last year — and he has run for 100 or more yards in his last nine road games. Honor a running back that fee want to even tackle head on.  NFC-East picks up interest!! The severity of Alex Smith’s injury was not immediately announced. With the Giants losing last week, combined with wins by Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas, things stayed interesting in the N.F.C. East, which is making up for its lack of quality by having all four teams in the division race with three games remaining.  Vikings kicking themselves? Dan Bailey missed an extra-point attempt in the first quarter and proceeded to miss field-goal attempts of 36, 54 and 46 yards, with each sailing wide right. Vikings kicker is having a mental meltdown?  Bailey also missed two extra points and a 51-yard field-goal attempt last week, making him 1 of 4 on extra points and 2 of 6 on field goals.  Throw out the game stats!! Tampa Bay had the ball for less than 21 of the game’s 60 minutes, while Minnesota had the game’s leading passer, leading rusher and leading receiver. Final score: Bucs 26--Vikings 14I’m baaaaack Chicago fans!! Mitchell Trubisky had a terrific game against the Houston Texans, completing 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago managed to keep the Bears very much alive in the race for the N.F.C.’s third wild card.Could they finish 0-3; or 1-2?? Green Bay controls its own destiny as far as a first-round bye is concerned, and the Packers will close their season with winnable games against Carolina, Tennessee (in Green Bay) and Chicago. Need linebackers in a hurry!! The Steelers looked lost trying to slow down quarterback Josh Allen, receiver Stefon Diggs and the Bills’ offense, losting, 26-15. As a result, the Steelers will go into Week 15 trailing Kansas City for the top spot in the AFC. Defense is leaking fast.  Tom Brady’s Christmas wish!!Tampa Bay improved to 8-5, and is on its way to its first playoff appearance since 2007.  Brady has his offense set for a playoff run! The next John Elway?? Drew Lock finished the day with a career-high four passing touchdowns leading the Broncos to an unlikely win over Carolina. The Buffalo Bills are complete now. Stefon Diggs had 10 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. He is the first player this season to reach 100 receptions. It’ll be Allen to Diggs in the playoffs. 

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Betting Opportunities Within the NFC East Division

Monday, Dec 14, 2020

The NFC East ATS thru Week 14 The NY Giants are 8-4 ATS. S/u 5-8 and 2-4 at home The Football team is 6-5 ATSS/u 5-7 and 4-2 at home.  The Eagles are 4-8 ATS S/u 3-8-1 and 4-3 at home.  The Cowboys are 2-9 ATSS/u 4-9 and 1-5 at home.  S/U against winning teams  The NY Giants win over Seattle last week was the first win over a team with a winning record thru week 13. On week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New Orleans Saints for the NFC East division’s second win over a team with a winning record. That was my Pinnacle Bet of the Year (now 13-3). But let’s bet with the point spread and like the perception they give the masses. After all, the oddsmakers do this every week.  Making money in weeks 15-17  We can make money from week 15 to week 17.  Three  weeks of value and most bettors giving up on them. The oddsmakers know that.The straight up record for this division is 17-32-1. But with the point spread, it brings us to 23-28. A confident vote AGAINST Dallas  The biggest culprit is Dallas; America’s team. The oddsmakers realize this. The public is ingrained to believe that. The bets continue to flow in on them. If we never bet on Dallas, the worst division in the NFL would now be 20-18 ATS.  Adapt your thinking In gambling at sports, sometimes one needs to adapt and change betting philosophies. It’s daring and risky but we sports bettors are risk takers. If we bet on the NY Giants, Washington and Philadelphia but bet against the Dallas Cowboys, our ATS numbers would change to 30-21 ATS.  Going against Dallas makes sense It’s not out of character to adjust to these situations. Their starting quarterback is out for the year. Their backup got hurt for a few games. At four (4) wins, and needing one of the many college quarterbacks preparing for the NFL draft, why would they now be able to win? I don’t see the Cowboys playing for Texas pride. I don’t see them laying it on the turf for their coach. At times, even though their paychecks are on autopay, I don’t even see most playing for Jerry Jones money. With injuries, lack of attitude and focus, a bet against the Cowboys and bets on the other three are the money makers. The oddsmakers know everyone has given up on this division and will make their opponents over-priced wager opportunities for the masses.  Making money ATS in the NFC-East  I will concentrate on more NFC EAST bets in weeks 15-17 to finish the season. I’ll be on for the most part, NY, Washington and Philadelphia and against Dallas. 

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Surprise Coming to Texas Football?

Wednesday, Dec 02, 2020

Texas is huge in everything they do. They’re bigger than life! FOOTBALL IS KING Thursday thru Monday. Junior High football brings them in droves as their introduction. High School football sells out 50,000 seat stadiums and comes with pointspreads. College football is bloody to die for between the different loyaltists and alumni. The two teams in the NFL stink but are beloved throughout Texas and one as America’s Team. With 270,000 sq miles and 29,000,000 people, what can one person do to change the entire State of Texas football scene? We’re talking about getting excited about the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys. Gamblers bet like hell on Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. The University of Texas has always been king until recently. The Pony Express, SMU, was up there years ago paying huge dividends and the new kid on the block is U of Houston. Don’t think that they don’t support TCU, Rice, Texas St and UTEP for a minute because they do. So what is apparently lacking? I say it’s one thing that could collectively put Texas back on the football map. A much needed wrangling in of a football stranglehold. A huge cattle man? Probably not. An oil baron wouldn’t hurt but there’s better. A close source to me told me that Shelley Meyer is in Austin shopping for a residential palace.One Texas size mansion big enough to hosts Texas size boosters. In case you are not familiar with her, that’s football legend Urban Meyer’s wife. It seems that University of Texas is unhappy with Coach Tom Herman. That’s football Texas talk that he can’t win nor cover the spread as a favorite. It’s speculation on my part (haha) but we know when Texas goes ALL-IN, it’s not always about no limit Texas hold em poker. The spirit of all longhorn cattle or every Texas graduate is saddling up for this campfire miracle. It’s amazing that one person could change an entire industry in that State but Texas Football, whether College and Pro, requires the biggest name available and his name is Coach Urban Meyer.

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A College Football Bad Beat for the Ages

Saturday, Nov 21, 2020

DOUBLE BAD BEATTulane +5.5 vs Tulsa -5.5Over/Under 53.5———————-Bet TulaneBet Under————Halftime score 0-0Points are ok getting 5.5Under is incredible at 53.5————End of 3rd quarterTulane 14–Tulsa 0Points are looking greatUnder is 39 points from winning; So lock it up————Start of 4th quarterTulane 14 - Tulsa 7    14—14    1:51 left    21—14.     :06 leftTulsa has ball with .06 seconds left. QB throws 37 yard pass to tie and send to OT at 21-21———-First OTTulsa scores FG first 21-24Tulane scores FG 24-24 to tie———-2 OTTulane gets ball. Throws a 94 yard pick-6Final Score:Tulane 24Tulsa 30Tulane bettor had + 5.5 to lose by the hookTulane bettor also had under 53.5 to lose by the hook. And you think you had a bad day?

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Inside the NFL: Against the Spread (ATS) Numbers thru Week 9

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2020

Playing at Home Home teams get to enjoy the comfort of being on your home turf, whether it’s maintaining a game-week rhythm or eating meals in your home, or sleeping in your own bed. They also don’t have to contend with travel protocols. But does that add up to more point spread covers? Thru 9 weeks, home teams are 76-70-1; 51.7% straight/up Road Team Perks Performing well in road games has become less difficult, thanks to the advancement of private air travel, football technology and mental fortitude. You have talking headsets now in helmets, and you have signals from the sideline ...so the hardships of yesteryear are behind us somewhat. Thru week 9, visitors are 70-77-1; 47.6%  straight -up Empty Stadiums Nearly empty stadiums make for just one variable that a coronavirus world presents, and accurately projecting its impact will prove to be a difference-maker for everyone's bottom line. The biggest adjustment yet might be the decision to limit fans’ attendance at games. So how has this affected home-field advantage? Although it’s too early in the season to reach a definitive conclusion, it’s evident that the home-field advantage is waning from past NFL seasons. During the 2019 season, home teams were a mere nine games straight up, 132-123-1, combined above .500, (.518 win rate), the lowest home win rate since 2002.  Home teams over-all: 70-77 ATS; 47.6% Home Favorites 41-53 ATS; 43.7% Home Team Advantage?  The assessment begins with a concept that already seems to have become outdated: home-field advantage. In fact, home teams won just 52% of regular-season games last year. That ranks as the third-worst season in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) and worst since 1972.  Home dogs are 29-24; 54.7% Visitor underdogs;53-41 ATS; 56.3%  Outside Factors You're handicapping betting behavior more than anything, especially on the higher-profile games, Denver will still have its altitude, warm-weather teams still must endure late-season elements, and travel will still involve challenges and annoyances that figure to inhibit a team's performance such as navy to back road games. Add to your Handicapping  Over the past five years, a league-high 14.7% of NFL games were decided by exactly three points. The second-most common margin of victory was seven points (9.9%), followed by six points (7.1%). It’s a Dog eat Favorite World in 2020  Underdogs are:  82-65; 55.8% thru week 9.

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NFL Mid-Season Playoff Picture

Tuesday, Nov 10, 2020

If the NFL playoffs were to begin based on Week 9-ending records, this is how it would match up.  AFCPittsburgh has a Bye Raiders vs Bills Miami vs Kansas City Baltimore vs Tennessee NFCNew Orleans has a Bye LA Rams vs Seattle Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia  Arizona vs Green Bay  Looking to get into the playoffs  In the AFC, Cleveland and Indianapolis can certainly move up. Most after that would have to go on a 8-0 or 7-1 run. It’s possible but unlikely.  In the NFC, the Chicago Bears have an opportunity if they right the ship.  Value betting bottom teams? It will be interesting to see if a team that is 3-5, can finish the second half of the season 7-1 or 6-2 to finish at 10-6 or 9-7.  I think this week is the most critical week of the season. It might be a chance to see which coach can adapt, manage or MOTIVATE.  This will be followed up next week on the results of the upcoming games in Week 9. If you can identify a certain coach and why his team team fell behind at this point, there’s point spread value AND money to be made on these lower-tiered teams.  Finally  Good luck with all your football information and continue to come back for more thinking out of the box.

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Bad Beat for the Monday Night Bettors

Saturday, Nov 07, 2020

Jerick McKinnon’s late score in the 49ers’ game with the Green Bay Packers at Levi’s Stadium was about more than pride. Just ask the folks in Las Vegas. Or better yet, ask Coach Shanahan if he scored one for the boys that were counting on a lot of points in the Green Bay game. Last year in the Championship game between these two teams, about eight months ago, the 49ers were -7.5. Thursday, Green Bay was -7.5. That’s a 15 point swing. Then to offer a trap for the public, the line started falling with the sports books loving that the public would get sucked in. And they did. It at least balanced out the sharps that teased Green Bay down to -.5. The sharps also teased that with the over 42.5. That left the squares (60%) of them betting San Francisco and under 48.5. Keep in mind, Vegas doesn’t lose often. That was important to bettors, since the over/under for the game was 49.5 on Wednesday and at 48 by kickoff. Every sports book needed scoring at the 6:30 mark in the 4th quarter with the score 34-3. Then the 49ers decided to kick it in gear. The 49ers got the ball back on their own 25 with 2:32 left in the fourth quarter, and marched 75 yards on 10 plays to make the score 34-10. The Packers went three and out and just wanted to hit the showers. That’s probably when the call came in...if there was one. After quickly moving downfield, the Vegas sports books and all the "over" bettors were laughing uncontrollably as the under bettors sat stunned in a typical finished game they are accustomed. McKinnon’s 1-yard touchdown run with four seconds left, followed by the ensuing extra point, put the final score of Thursday’s game at 34-17. Pay Green Bay and the OVER. 

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The Falcons Should Trade QB Matt Ryan

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

If you were Arthur Blank and had just fired your General Manager and your football coach, what scenario would you like to see happen and could you make it happen as the Atlanta Falcons move forward? I would want my GM and new head football coach to have a clean slate to create what they needed for the next five years. One key to my plan is that I want a coach that wouldn’t consider this job unless I showed him some exciting keys to the kingdom. There’s nothing better than to arrive with the chance to draft Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence.   I have had a great relationship with Matt Ryan since 2008 and he’s very good but needs to be moved. I would have called or flown to Dallas to meet with Jerry Jones. His Cowboys stink but are only one game out of first place and are  starting Ben Dinucci, James Madison rookie starting QB against the Eagles on the road.  I’d offer to trade to Jerry Jones, Matt Ryan today! I’ve enjoyed Matt but 12 years and it’s time well spent but this is a business. I have a new coach and GM coming soon and that’s what needs focused. By trading Matt Ryan, I free up money. I then can pretty much insure myself a 1-15 record or thereabouts. Many think the NY Jets will want Trevor Lawrence but he has stated that he would rather remain at Clemson than play for the Jets. Sounds like Eli Manning refusing to play for San Diego.  In essence, I can almost plan on getting the number one quarterback coming out of college. Lawrence is from nearby Georgia and would love playing in Atlanta throwing to Julio Jones and other great receivers. You can bet there will be some young exciting college coaches banging down the door to interview with Mr Blank. Does Lincoln Riley sound familiar?   As I am writing this brilliant option to make Dallas relevant and Atlanta’s future bright, the Falcons defeated the Panthers tonight to have two wins and ruin this perfect trade idea. At least we were thinking out of the box. 

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NFL Top 5 Teams

Sunday, Oct 25, 2020

1) Pittsburgh 5-0 The Steelers are a legitimate contender for AFC supremacy, and next up is an intriguing matchup Sunday with the Titans in a rescheduled game. With both teams 5-0, one team will be in a position to dominate the AFC. Kevin Bush’s knee injury is quite worrisome though, as Pittsburgh’s second level depth is a real concern and could open up a weakness in their great defense. Of course that remains to be seen as they just usually have “it” defensively. Their defense keyed Sunday’s 38-7 rout of Cleveland, holding the previously-hot Browns to 220 total yards with four sacks and two picks against Baker Mayfield. Great game Sunday at Tennessee. 2) Kansas City 4-1 Did anyone see 245 rushing yards coming from the Chiefs in a game in which they possessed the ball for nearly 38 minutes? Did Coach Reid forget he has a NFL great quarterback they paid a boatload of money to use? The defending Super Bowl champions didn’t look like a team that necessarily needed to add former Jets running back Le’Veon Bell after Monday’s game against the Bills. Now the Chiefs add Bell to the running back mix but few understand why. The guess is that Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy will get far more out of Bell than the Jets did. Maybe they’re saving Mahomes for the playoffs.  Also noteworthy:  Kansas City’s improved defense held Josh Allen to just 122 passing yards. 3) Seattle 5-0 Just one of three undefeated teams with the Titans and Steelers. Seattle sits atop the NFC but for how long is anybody’s guess. Their test to move to 6-0 is Sunday in Arizona. But keep your eyes on a potential upset in Arizona as Kyler Murray leads his Cardinals against the unbeaten Seahawks. Seattle will return with consecutive key games against divisional opponents, which should go a long way to determine whether MVP candidate Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will run away with the NFC West. The Seahawks return from their bye to play two straight division games, first at Arizona on Sunday and then at home against the 49ers. There are no easy games in the rugged NFC West. They better hope the defense gets it going soon because that's been an issue all season. The team’s average margin of victory is 6.8 points and all of their opponents have scored at least 23 points. UGH! 4) Tennessee  5-0 Ryan Tannehill and the Titans continue to prove that last year’s run to the AFC title game was no fluke. Their overtime victory over the Texans on Sunday came behind the exploits of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry.  Ryan Tannehill threw for 364 yards and Derrick Henry ran for 212 while also chipping in with two catches for 52 yards. Derrick Henry (264 total yards Sunday vs. Houston) continues to build a case for MVP honors. On a short week, the Titans beat the AFC East division-leading Buffalo Bills and ran a two-minute drill in a comeback win over the Texans Sunday.  Within seven days, the Titans have likely erased a lot of doubt about their status as a playoff contender.  In Week 7, they'll play the Pittsburgh Steelers in a battle between the AFC's last two undefeated teams. 5) Baltimore 4-1  This team is not functioning at the level that last season’s team did. They are 5-1 heading into their bye and I still don't think they have played close to their best. They have the Steelers coming out of that bye, so they better be ready. Lamar Jackson’s struggles in the passing game are becoming more and more worrisome and the Ravens allowed too many long runs while not creating a consistent run game of their own.  Jackson had his best game of the season running the ball, with 108 yards on nine attempts.  It remains to be seen if he will win more games with his arm or with his legs. THESE TEAMS ARE LOOKING TO OVERTAKE YOU Green BayBuffaloTampa BayArizonaChicago 

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NFL Top 5 Teams

Wednesday, Oct 14, 2020

After five weeks of play, there are just a few teams one would be willing to bet that makes it to the Super Bowl.  Despite their loss on Sunday, the Chiefs are still the team to beat.  The Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks all look the real deal too. Even Gentle Ben might have something to say. But we do have a new Number One.  1. Green Bay Packers We don’t punish teams in the rankings for taking a week off.  Matt LaFleur’s team has made winning look easy in the opening four games, taking a perfect record into their well-deserved bye week. During their time off, they’ve jumped up in the power rankings.Just who was Matt LaFleur when he was hired to guide Aaron Rodgers a few years ago? Matt LaFleur has made them one of the toughest teams in the entire NFL as they’ve quietly won 20 games while losing only three in the regular season under his watchful eye. That’s who he is! Despite the fact they’ve just been on a bye week, the Packers’ 152 points this season is still good for fourth-most in the NFL. LaFleur and Rodgers (and Hammerstein) have connected...somehow. They were 4-0 heading into their bye and haven’t scored less than 30 points in any game this season. The Packers are also the only team in the league to not turn the ball over a single time this season.  This Sunday's Aaron Rodgers and Tom (GOAT) Brady matchup should be great. 2. Kansas City Chiefs We listened unmercifully on every local Las Vegas sports radio talk show on how the LV Raiders were going to defeat the Chiefs leading up to their Sunday game. No one could take all the hype seriously, could they? We now get to hear all the local experts regurgitate the almighty “I told you so”. (Gag me). The 8-point loss represents the worst defeat of Patrick Mahomes’ young NFL career. How did the Chiefs defense get carved up by Derek Carr? More concerning is that offensive line in front of Patrick Mahomes. In all honesty, this was the Chiefs’ second relatively poor performance in a four-week span. They just haven’t been the same freewheeling  consistently crisp team enough to hold the top spot. I am sure that Mahomes would bet he’ll be back in the final game of the NFL season. Book it!  3. Seattle Seahawks  The Seahawks were fortunate to survive on Sunday night, but the Vikings are better than their 1-4 record absolutely proves that Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf are a deadly duo right now. Definitely better yet, never give Russell Wilson a second chance. The Minnesota Vikings learned this the hard way as they elected to go for a fourth-and-1 from the Seattle Seahawks six-yard line while leading by five. Refusing to go up by eight points with a chipshot field goal, Zimmer had to face everyone for an explanation. The Seahawks defense stuffed the Vikings and that gave Wilson the ball. (Make that the “game ball”). That was a huge mistake. While he had less than two minutes to go 94-yards, there was little doubt he would do just that. And the results are in. Seattle remains undefeated and the Russell Wilson for MVP chants are growing after that remarkable comeback. He’s now leading one of only two undefeated NFC teams and is playing better than just about everyone right now. Many would love to see a Wilson-Mahomes Super Bowl matchup.   4. Baltimore Ravens  Perhaps the Ravens were scolded too much afterwards for their loss to the Chiefs. They're still very clearly one of the best teams in the AFC. You get to watch a sea of talent when you watch the Baltimore Ravens. It’s not enough that they have an MVP under center in Lamar Jackson who can tear teams apart with the run or pass, but they also have to have one of the best (if not the best) tight end in the game right now in Mark Andrews. And there’s more. Marquise Brown can score in the blink of an eye. The Ravens also boast the deepest stable of running backs in the NFL with Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins.  Right now, the Ravens' only loss was to the Chiefs which hurts them in the standings but not from having a very solid chance of making it to the Super Bowl.   5. Pittsburgh Steelers   With the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens nipping at their heels coming into last weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers just kept ignoring everything going on around them as they went on to win another game and go to 5-0.  The Steelers aren't even overly impressive, but they're steady, deadly and they keep winning games.  Last week, in a high scoring affair, they ended up taking out an in-state rival as they were able to beat up on the Philadelphia Eagles at home. I believe that we’ll be hearing Roethlisberger to Claypool for a touchdown over and over for the remainder of the season.  This rookie, Chase Claypool, scored four touchdowns and definitely looks like a future star.  They are looking to move up into the NFL Top Five.   Tennessee  Buffalo  LA Rams Cleveland  Chicago

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Top 5 NFL Rankings (Thru Week 4)

Thursday, Oct 08, 2020

We’re speaking of the NFL, where it’s topsy and turvy week-in and week-out. It’s like the swinging doors of the Wild West saloons. Expectedly, there have been some major upswings and downward falls. But those are from the lower-tiered teams.  1. Kansas City Never, ever take the defending Super Bowl champions out of the No. 1 spot in the Power Rankings until they lose their first game. Prior to Week 4, no team had started 4-0 in four consecutive seasons. While everyone gives credit to Patrick Mahomes and Coach Reid, Kansas City's underrated defense deserves praise. Kansas City‘s defense looks more capable over the last couple of weeks. It was only a few years ago they ranked number 30 or lower. Now, Kansas City is alone on top of the heap after one fourth of the season is behind us. Maybe a division game will slow them down.  2. Green Bay Rodgers looks as electric as ever and the Packers look very tough to beat. In fact, they may be in their own separate tier above the Ravens and just below the Chiefs. It must have helped motivate Rodgers when Green Bay drafted a rookie quarterback. But it’s all roses now and Aaron even seems to get along with his coach. Look out when his wide receivers get healthy and return and they bank win after win in their NFC North Division games. That offense is playing at an elite level. Aaron Rodgers is clearly in the MVP race.   3. Baltimore  They bounced back in nice fashion against Washington, but it wasn't exactly a big-time test. Even so, you have to win those types of games and move on. The Ravens lead the NFL in points off turnovers this season with 38. Of course that didn’t matter two weeks ago. Against mild manner Washington, Baltimore looked nothing like the discombobulated unit that was getting crushed by the Chiefs. But no one has looked very good against them either. Lamar Jackson is brilliant whenever he isn’t playing the Chiefs or Titans and their team's blitz-heavy defense has been highly effective against everyone but Kansas City. The Ravens have won their games big and have had great production from their ground game. But can they win the big ones: KC or Pittsburgh? 4. Pittsburgh  The Steelers are back and solid. When the Steel Curtain is making headlines, other teams are in trouble. It's (very) early, but they're on pace to record 80 sacks over a full season which would surpass the 1984 Bears' record of ‘72. They have looked solid to this point, especially on defense. If Ben Roethlisberger can get the most out of his weapons, the Steelers may push the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North. They got a week off because of the postponement due to COVID-19, so they essentially had an early bye that included practice. Will that help or hurt? Pittsburgh prepares for a stretch of 13 straight games, starting at home on Sunday against an Eagles team that finally has some momentum to build on. 5. Seattle  For the first time in Pete Carroll’s tenure, he has unleashed Russell Wilson in the passing game. Wilson has looked like the frontrunner for MVP at this point as he seemingly throws 10 touchdowns a week to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The offense wasn't as explosive against Miami, but they still scored over 30 points. They are 4-0, but do we know how good they are as a team? Given the long trip, not surprising the team wasn't hitting on all cylinders but can't complain too much about another efficient Russell Wilson performance. The last time the team was 4-0 they made it to the Super Bowl so Seahawks fans are hoping for similar vibes this season.———Looking to move up6. Buffalo 7. Tampa Bay8. New Orleans9. LA Rams10. Indianapolis 

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Bad Beats and Good Wins

Tuesday, Oct 06, 2020

At The Sportsbooks My good friend of over 30 years and I had a meeting Sunday morning as he is one of the greatest at betting big NFL (only) 6-point teasers. I personally don’t bet them but I get a kick out of him doing so. Plus his entire life is built around him being extremely lucky. It’s great entertainment just to sweat his teaser bets occasionally. There are certain things that are a must “rules” to bet these games properly. My rule is to rarely bet them.   I’m teasing you now about this teaser  Where can you ever have five of your teams score 123 total points, getting a total of 30 more teaser points and your very last game comes down to a two-point conversion on the last play of the game...to win by a half a point?    The Payout The payoff on this bet was +600. My friend bet a dime on this wager looking for a steal (as he calls it) of $6000. I reluctantly tossed in $200 just to be part of this action. I assure you, anything involving six teams over six hours is definitely action. It’s certainly not for most professional gamblers. But fun is fun and action is fun. His Selections  He picked the following teams: Miami +12.5Washington FB Team +19LV Raiders + 9Carolina + 9.5Lions + 10Bears + 8.5 4-0 to begin; two left for $7200 We had won the four early games and were sweating the fourth quarter of the Bills vs Raiders game along with the Colts vs Bears game. With the Raiders trailing 30-16 with less than two minutes left, Carr threw a pass for a touchdown to close the score to 30-23. With our + 9 points, we were finally 5-0 with one game to finish. And $7200.   Bears Make You Sweat Bullets  The Bears game seemed to never get untracked for over three quarters and half of the fourth. We needed a turnover. We had to get the ball back. But damn!!  With 3:47 left in the game, the Colts extended their lead with a successful field goal to make it 19-3. Now we had the ball and needed a miracle. The Bears got the ball back and moved it decently down the field but with under two minutes to go and on the Colts 30; it was nerve wracking for my buddy and had me on the edge of my seat pulling for him. Then one play here, a completion there and a run later, Nick Foles hit Allen Robinson for a 16 yard touchdown at the 1:47 mark making the score 19-9. Getting +8.5 points meant one thing. Knowing they needed a two point conversion to make the following onside kick meaningful, they had to attempt a two-point play and be successful. They handed the ball of the David Montgomery and he ran it in from the left side. The score was 19-11. Damn he is Lucky! There were a total of 123 points, 6.5 hours of TV viewing time, $7200 to collect in bets and it came down to one two-point play to win a six game teaser bet by a half point. As stated above, my friend is one of the luckiest gamblers I know. Next week, I hope he has another one to bet and watch. 

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Bad Beats: NFL 4-Team Parlay

Wednesday, Sep 30, 2020

Let’s discuss this crazy four team parlay over the weekend. You won’t believe this happening.Here are the wagers:Buffalo -1.5Pittsburgh -3.5Chicago + 2.5KC/Balt Over 54.5  Keep in mind that a four team parlay pays 10/1. Many call this type of wager a poor person's football lotto. Scraping up $200 to win $2000 is monthly bills-changing money. So off my friend went to Caesar's Sportsbook to purchase his piece of "game day hope." And he was sure to wear his "lucky" hat.  Game 1)   Buffalo  How great do you have to feel with Buffalo leading 21-3 at halftime against the LA Rams. You never know if a lead is safe in the NFL but the first score in the second half is a score by the Bills extending their lead to 28-3. With under 5:00 minutes left in the third quarter, the Rams are driving but who cares with this lead. The Rams score a touchdown making the score 28-10 and the partying continues. The Rams scored again within two minutes and quieting my friends happy expressions at 28-17. In the fourth quarter, the Rams scored another TD and a successful two point conversion having the score 28-25. OH NO!  On fourth and goal, the Rams went for it and scored another touchdown putting the Rams ahead 32-28. My friend was devastated and very quiet...And crushed. Josh Allen got the ball back with four minutes left and moved down the field and scored with .15 seconds left to win the game and cover the point spread. The smiles are back with this winner. The first game is a winner but meanwhile Chicago is getting blown out so it’s kind of all for naught.  Game 2)   Chicago It’s easy to hate Atlanta. They seem to always make a gambler’s life miserably lately. Always losing money on them. They are set to get a mention in pretty much every bad beat story. They have turned the Bad Beat into an art form, working their genius on the gridiron like other true masters work in clay or oils. This game started off slow. The Falcons led 6-3 after the first quarter. We both were prepared to see a close hard fought game. In the second quarter, Atlanta added a field goal and a touchdown to lead 16-3 as the game was getting away. But the Bears scored and at the end of the first half, the Falcons were leading 16-10. Not a problem. The second half start saw the Falcons add 10 quick points in the first five minutes now leading 26-10. The third quarter ended with no further scores. The last fifteen minutes began with the Bears and Nick Foles scoring a TD to cut the lead to 26-16 as the two point conversion failed. Two minutes later, Foles was back and threw a 37 yard touchdown pass to make it 26-23. He’s only getting plus +2.5 points and with under 4:00 minutes left and Atlanta having the ball, we needed to get the ball back and then a miracle score. Somehow, Atlanta didn’t do anything and our new Bears hero, Nick Foles, threw a 28 yard touchdown pass for a touchdown and let the confetti fly as the Bears won 30-26. I can only imagine the Atlanta Falcons can envision the horrid, soul crushing loss that lives inside of their heads. If others want to say that the Falcons blew another game, it’s probably true. At least two legs of the parlay are in.  Game 3)   Pittsburgh  The Steelers game was also an early game so it was difficult where to pay special attention with three games going at once. I had seen an early score while watching the Buffalo game where Houston was up 14-3 but Pittsburgh roared back to make it 17-14. All we knew for sure was the score at halftime was 21-17. The Steelers made the only score in the third quarter tying the game at 20-20. Now for the long 15 minute fourth quarter. We got in at the six minute mark and added a two point successful play to bring it to 28-20 which ended up as the final. We had purposely chosen these three games because the late games were difficult and we thought the extra time until Monday night would give us time to hedge our bets if lucky to go 3-0 with the early games.  Whoopee, Bravo, Presto. We are 3-0 and the best game is left. The perfect two teams to score a ton of points and we have (he does but by now I am truly involved) the over 54.5.  The One Day Wait.  Your mind starts to think of safe vacation spots for you, your spouse and your kids that wouldn’t be too crowded while the weather’s still warm. You know what would be great? A cabin. A nice one with a Jacuzzi right off some hiking trails. You can distance and if society continues to collapse, you’ll already be safely ensconced on a mountaintop watching the world burn from afar. Frankly, it’s my dream scenario. Or a quick trip to the beach knowing it would be prepaid with my $2000 win. What a life we live!!! ————— MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Kansas City/ Baltimore ov 54.5  There was plenty of fire in the first half as the Chiefs took a 27-10 lead. There could have been more as we were on a tie on points needed  We figured 30 or 31 points would be scored that half so we were in a great position with 37. I was the one to advise my friend to bet the over for the obvious reasons of two great QBs. I liked the Baltimore side and it looked like a oddsmakers trap giving you Mahomes and +2.5 points so the over seemed like the best choice. NOTE: Only four times in history has the Regular Season MVP and the Super Bowl MVP met with the SB MVP winning all four contest. Now back to the game. Only 19 points were needed after the break to push the total over. Thinking back while watching the second half, I was wondering if Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker’s missed extra point and 42-yard field goal wouldn’t matter.  4th Quarter Finale  Those points mattered. Only three points were scored in the third quarter. My friends heart was sinking. The two teams traded touchdowns in the fourth quarter to leave the Chiefs ahead 34-20 with 8:14 to play. To win $2000, any score would do for over bettors. The Ravens promptly drove down the field, but their drive stalled out with two Kansas City sacks and they turned the ball over on downs. This is starting to be a nightmare. My buddy and I had sweated they two days and three miracle games on Sunday. It’s our fate to win this. Certainly no Greater Power would take us this far and betray our magic ticket bought Sunday from the Church of the Holy Point Spread. Sweating the rest of the game with over eight minutes left was a true sweat thru your shirt moment with $2000 in your front right pocket. Neither of us said much not wanting to say an unlucky thing or being the blamed jinx. It was no longer tictock; it was tic-tic-tic-tic-tic as the minutes were vaporizing at nano speed on the clock. Under five minutes left, under four and three and the the two minute warning. Over bettors were in trouble. Make that big trouble. The Chiefs merely milked the clock and turned the ball over on downs instead of kicking a field goal with 23 seconds to go. So Sad He Lost That had to be the longest and most disheartening loss I have witnessed. I felt it was my money losing by the end. There were no words to say. He won three out of four games and lost money. It was not the right time to say parlays are difficult at best to win. He wins 75% and lost $200. The moral of the story is obvious. Don’t bet parlays. Be sure to read more Wayne Root articles if you enjoyed this one. 

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Dan Quinn's Atlanta Falcons: Another Historic Defeat!

Monday, Sep 21, 2020

Did greed overcome proper betting or was this too foolish to wager upon?  Here’s the situation.The Atlanta vs Dallas game goes to a TV commercial leaving you too much extra time to think clearly. Some of your buddies at the MGM Sportsbook says, “Go for it”. “You can’t lose”. You may have been having a great day or maybe you just wanted to pick up a cool fast, free $1000. What should one do?  At the seven minute mark left on on that “Black Sunday II”, the Atlanta Falcons led the Dallas Cowboys 39-24. Their odds on the in-game line was -3333. Someone bet $35,000 to win $1,050 on the Falcons’ moneyline, according to BetMGM. Historic Note since 1939Teams were 440-0 when scoring 39 points or more and with no turnovers. This scenario fit the situation perfectly. In a nano-second, you flash back to the Patriots vs Falcons Super Bowl and tell your buddies, “hell, it will never happen again”, and to the betting window you go. You count out your cash, grab your betting ticket and return to celebrate your perceived winner with your boys.Patience my boy!!It’s doubtful the next seven minutes will be patient. Dallas scores at the 4:52 mark bringing the score to 39-30. Ugh but no problem! Dallas goes for two and misses. YES!!!  Start the celebration Celebrating begins as the Falcons will get the ball back and up by nine points. One good first down and then four more plays should run out the clock. Oh No! Atlanta goes nowhere and the Cowboys will get the ball back. Can Dallas score?Of course. They go down the field and Dak Prescott scores from one yard out bringing the score to 39-37 with just over a minute to play. You are reminded by a buddy that with the recent rule changes for the onside kick, it’s effective just 11% of the time. It almost never works. Even if Dallas does recover the ball, they still have to score. So what could go wrong? I’ll tell you!!The same thing that went wrong in the Super Bowl debacle.  Horrible coaching.  From Dan Quinn to his special teams coach. They actually made a case that they thought the ball had to go in excess of 10 yards. THAT’s FOR THE OFFENSE DUMMIES!  How do they hold their jobs? How do they not know the rules.  But that is for the Owner (Arthur Blank) of the Falcons to demand an answer. Here’s my answer. It was NOT greedy. It would normally be a smart wager. However, the same coaching staff is on the sideline. And they have made a plethora of mistakes running the show since that Super Bowl.  Dan Quinn is a defensive guy. Might not even be respected as their head coach. Being down 15 points when the bet was made would have been a smart bet for most teams involved. (Well at least 440). I wouldn’t even say it was a case of being greedy. You just cannot do it if it involves the Falcons. History will place an asterisk that Atlanta moved the needle to 440-1. The gambler at the MGM will need more than asterisks to be reminded to never repeat history if it involves the Atlanta Falcons. 

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NFL Week 1 Review: Four Surprising Winners

Tuesday, Sep 15, 2020

The Washington Football Team, the Jacksonville Jags, the Chicago Bears and the Arizona Cardinals looked like dwellers in the cellar coming into the 2020 NFL season. They are all undefeated. How did they all accomplish this Herculean feat?  WASHINGTON 27, EAGLES 17 Washington was getting routed in Coach Rivera’s first game. As expected by most. Then poof, Peyton Barber ran for two touchdowns and Dwayne Haskins rallied Washington from a 17-point deficit to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-17. It was from a great defensive effort. One that they’ll most likely have to count on for wins. They sacked Carson Wentz eight times and forced two costly interceptions behind an Eagles injury-depleted offense line. Ryan Kerrigan led the way with two sacks and No. 2 overall pick Chase Young got a key sack.This seems to be the yearly pattern for Washington. Average offense that has to depend on their defense. If they ever get to a Championship Game, I hope they remember that defense wins playoff games. JAGUARS 27, COLTS 20 Minshew Mania is back and maybe better than before if the mustache is left out of conversations and he is left to play quarterback without distractions. The Jaguars entered Week 1 as the NFL’s biggest home underdogs with talk of tanking the season beginning with week 1. That talk was nonsense except maybe to the Colts. Gardner Minshew II was nearly flawless going 19-for-20 with 173 yards and three touchdown passes. Most were betting on Colts QB Philip Rivers as he made his Colts debut. He had 363 passing yards, one touchdown pass and two interceptions. An new NFL record was established as undrafted Jags rookie running back James Robinson accounted for 90 yards, including 62 on the ground. Look for everyone to forget Leonard Fournette real quick. BEARS 27, LIONS 23 The Lions had the game but let it slip away from them. They were in familiar week one territory. Detroit opened last season by blowing an 18-point lead at Arizona and settling for a tie. Could they do it back to back? Spoiler Alert: YES as Matthew Stafford had a game-winning touchdown pass to D’Andre Swift dropped blowing a 17 point lead. The highlights were that the Bears scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win the game. The bombshell of the game was that Mitchell Trubisky had three touchdown passes. QB Nick Foles can keep his clipboard job another week or two. Father Time, Adrian Peterson ran for 93 yards on 14 carries in his Detroit debut, just four days after signing with the team. Matt Stafford was 24 of 42 for 297 yards in his loss.  CARDINALS 24, 49ERS 20  Kyler Murray used the new offseason WR toy Arizona got him to get his second season off to a 1-0 rousing start. It all starts with the old adage: follow the money. It was evident that San Francisco did not as DeAndre Hopkins made a big impression in his first game with Arizona. He led the way with 14 catches for 151 yards in the game. I wonder if the Houston Texan players noticed someone missing? Was it mentioned that his performance was against one of the best secondaries in football? It is isn’t it? Arizona QB Murray threw for 230 yards and a touchdown and ran for 91 yards and another score to help the Cardinals shock the 49ers on their home field which Coach Shanahan is blaming the red fire lit skies on their loss.  What are the odds that 3 of 4 are undefeated after next week? We know, so follow Wayne Root all week and all season long.

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New England Patriots: 2020 Season Preview

Wednesday, Sep 09, 2020

The excitement in New England understandably is high following the addition of Cam Newton, but Patriots fans might want to temper their expectations. It might be a shorter list if we wrote a paper on the Patriots weaknesses in the Revolutionary War. Today’s New England Patriots have some glaring shortcomings  But the media hype is all about new quarterback Cam Newton. Pats fans might want to temper their enthusiasm while betting fans might want to rev up their bets against the Pats. Or at least be aware of what’s at stake. SCHEDULE The most difficult schedule in the NFL belongs to New England. They have their normal difficulty at Miami. While Brady always played well at Buffalo, the Bills will be favored to win at home. The Jets should be their 2-0 sweep. But what about their non-conference games?  At Seattle, at the Chiefs, at Houston and at LA Rams. Playing Denver, San Francisco and Baltimore at home will be ultra-challenging at best.  TIGHT ENDSIt the past it was Brady to Gronk. Now it’s Newton to a tight end of the unknown variety. This weakness for the Patriots is not only an issue for this season but has been for the last few years. Their offense loves to use the tight end especially up the middle needing a long completion. But this weakness comes at the tight end spot and that position both in the passing game and in the rushing attack shows a gaping hole. This offseason, New England did draft a pair of tight ends in the NFL Draft with the selections of Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene in the middle rounds of the draft but it remains a mystery on how they factor into the offense.  WIDE RECEIVERS Many question who are the targeted wide receivers?  Although Edelman will continue to be solid as he always is and hopefully will be, that leaves little else. N'Keal Harry and others could step up even more than what they did in 2019 but that group doesn’t necessarily raise any eyebrows as being filled with talent. Who will Cam Newton look to as his favorite go-to guy? Once other teams identify him, they will game plans accordingly. Do you still like New England? LINEBACKERS Can they excel on the defensive side of the ball? Their linebacker core indicates maybe not. I think the Pats’ most troubled position is linebacker. Behind a thin defensive line, the Pats’ linebackers are greener than the Belichicks have been used to in recent years and that is not the talent needed based on the scheduled top-notch quarterbacks they have to face. Donte Hightower is among football’s best but we always worry about injuries. It may be tough to bank on the two-time Pro Bowl selection making it through a full season healthy. Young linebackers Winovich and Bentley also have their work cut out of them as their roles are expected to expand in 2020. MEDIA HYPESo the bottom line is you now see a different picture of what’s being presented to Coach Belichick and his staff. The media has led many to believe that the only void they had was to replace Tom Brady. It’s far from that.  BETTINGI would bet under 9 wins as a futures bet and additionally would be cautious on straight bets as the oddsmakers will take advantage of the love the public has for New England.  By Wayne Allyn Root 

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Football Handicapping: Five Factors

Saturday, Jul 11, 2020

There are many ways to handicap football games when broken down to the basics. Here are 5 of the most important factors to share from 35 years of beating the Vegas number. In most match-ups, a combination of all factors weighs into the final outcome. However, many handicappers choose to rely on one of the following methods more than another. It is the “identify” of that handicapper. As any CEO in the business world can do, handicapping "numbers" is very similar to crunching the numbers of a financial report. Let's review the 5 most popular methods I've used during my 35 year career as “America's Oddsmaker” and “The King of Vegas Sports Gambling.”1) TECHNICALThere are more "technicals" available for each game than any other method. For example, when one hears that team A is 9-1 versus team B over the last 10 years- that is a technical. There are teams that are 9-2 at home and 2-9 on the road. Night games vs. day games and grass vs. turf are common examples of "techs". One has to consider how teams play within their division, as opposed to outside their division. A team like the Oakland Raiders was once labeled as "unbeatable" on Monday Night Football. That technical trend is no longer applicable. Trends must be updated often. One can go back into the history of numbers and find all these "stats and trends". Many trends follow patterns that don’t change for the way teams play. West coast teams traveling to play on the east coast with that early 1:00 start had always favored the east coast teams. The time change and travel took its toll. But the oddsmakers have offset that by adding more points to the east coast team adjusting the spread. This is not an automatic bet any longer. Another one (the NFL is trying to avoid) is playing three consecutive games on the road. It used to be another automatic play going against the road team on that third road game. The oddsmakers have adjusted their point spreads but the average gambler has not. These are the type of technical points of reference to be careful. 2) EMOTIONALOne has to watch certain games where emotional factors are involved. This is especially true in college where emotions can run especially high (due to youth and bitter long-term rivalries). Revenge is good for "an emotional outlook" of playing a game. An embarrassing loss from the previous year also needs to be considered. There are certain rivalry games where all stats can be thrown out and the underdog will play like the World Champions. In the NFL, what you watched last week may be a huge change of play this week. A team that looked embarrassing and pathetic in week four might come out in week five and play completely opposite from the previous week. The oddsmakers are guaranteed to have made the line adjustments to trick the bettors. Beware and check with Wayne Root. There's usually at least one game each week which this applies. 3) SITUATIONALThis is a combination of technical and emotional scenarios. There could be a "key" injury that is "situational" to that game. The weather could become a major factor in analyzing the game. Be careful of placing too much emphasis on injuries, as the team with the injured star often rises to the occasion for that situation. And when it comes to weather, wind is the number 1 factor- far ahead of rain or snow. This factor and by me usually betting live underdogs are the reasons to bet these games as close to kickoff as you can. There’s rarely an instance where betting a Sunday game on Friday is paramount. 4) FUNDAMENTALHandicapping by using "fundamentals" is simply looking at basic fundamental “X and O” football stats. When team A is ranked number 1 in passing versus the number 27 passing defense, one has to look at betting team A. There are teams- due to age and lack of speed- that have trouble on turf. Make sure the fundamentals are in place in terms of statistics when doing the analysis. The playoff teams that rush the ball the most seem to win more often. Be sure to check rushing stats versus "against the rush" stats before placing a wager in this method of handicapping. And separate regular season versus Playoff stats- it's a whole new season.5) BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLICWayne Allyn Root used to notice that most of his friends and fans lost nonstop in sports wagering. So a light bulb went off in his head over 30 years ago AND still applies to this day. Wayne began studying public opinion- and betting against it. He simply calls it "going against the public.” Experts might call it “Contrarian Betting Strategy.” His thinking is 90% "contrarian" to the public. And he has been the most successful handicapper in America for 35 years- starting with his days as co host with Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder on Financial News Network (now CNBC). Wayne's track record for over three (3) decades has been the source of the media declaring him "America's Oddsmaker,” “The Face of Las Vegas Gaming” and “The King of Vegas.” It is the reason that Wayne was awarded a star on the Las Vegas Walk of Stars- alongside Elvis, Liberace, Wayne Newton, Bobby Darin and Siegfried & Roy. He is the only professional sports handicapper ever honored (and the youngest recipient ever). All these years later, Wayne's focus remains on betting against the public. The public has a difficult time betting underdogs- so WAR bets on the underdogs. That's where the point spread value is found. When the point spread is rapidly escalating because of a "key" injury, WAR bets on the injured team. WAR loves to bet against popular “public teams” and wager on what he calls “orphans” (teams the betting public ignores or believes has virtually no chance of winning). 

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