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Hot Streaks and Achievements

  • MLB Sides: 15-6 YTD. Soc O/U: 17-5. NHL: 11-5. CBB O/U: 7-1. NBA: 13-8. EPL O/U: 8-0 YTD.
  • NHL: +$36,330 (+47 games). NFL Run: 22-12 (65%). CFB Run: 12-6 (67%).
  • NBA Tops: +$41,720 (+108 games). NFL Tops: +$27,150 (+55 games).

Biography

ASA, Inc.’s Lee Kostroski and Mike Merlet have a combined 50+ years in the handicapping profession, and are known for their “Big Game” prowess.

Active since:  1987

Location:  Madison, WI

The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASA), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the sports betting industry.  Both started with Doc’s Enterprises — Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s.  After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest firms in the business, they started ASA, Inc. in 1997 and have been going strong ever since.  They have especially been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES, and their Top Football plays have profited 16 of 23 seasons.  ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten.

ASA has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few.  They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season.

ASA’s handicapping methods have evolved over the years, with hard work and research being the anchor of their success.  Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections.  They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years, which gives them in-depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping.  That’s not where they stop, however.  They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest).  On top of that, they analyze each point spread (and their movements), comparing them with their own power ratings to find an edge.  Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models forecast the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that aren’t swayed by the human element.  So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection.  It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval.  Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping.  Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry.

Lee & Mike at ASA have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so.  Their 50+ years of experience will give you the winning edge you need.  Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you invest in the known commodity of ASA!

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SOCCER - Over / Under - Wed, Apr 30

ASA Champions Lg Crusher! 3 ET! 70% SOC O/U!

ASA 2-2 Tuesday and on 43-29 (60%) RUN including 8-2 (80%) w/NBA spreads! ASA 10-1 (91%) EPL O/U SEASON! ASA is 17-9 ...

$30

NBA - Point Spread - Wed, Apr 30

ASA NBA Situational Slaughter! 8-2 (80%) RUN!

ASA 2-2 Tuesday and on 43-29 (60%) RUN including 8-2 (80%) w/NBA spreads! ASA 10-1 (91%) EPL O/U SEASON! ASA is 17-9 ...

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NHL - Moneyline - Wed, Apr 30

ASA NHL Playoff Punisher! 6-2 (75%) PUNISHERS

ASA 2-2 Tuesday and on 43-29 (60%) RUN including 8-2 (80%) w/NBA spreads! ASA 10-1 (91%) EPL O/U SEASON! ASA is 17-9 ...

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NHL Playoff Series Prediction

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers First Round Series Betting Prediction (2025 NHL Playoffs) Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Series (-105) The Tampa Bay Lightning are a solid bet at -105 to beat the Florida Panthers in the 2025 NHL Playoffs first round, driven by offensive depth, goaltending, and health advantages. Tampa led the NHL with 3.60 goals per game (GF/GP), powered by Kucherov (121 points), Point (42 goals), and Guentzel (41 goals), while allowing 2.40 GA/GP since February 1 (sixth-fewest). Florida scored 3.00 GF/GP (15th) and allowed 2.72 GA/GP (seventh-fewest), but finished 29 goals below expected. Net Rating shows a two-goal difference, favoring Tampa’s finishing. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 SV%) outshines Sergei Bobrovsky (2.44 GAA, .906 SV%), with a .927 save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off. Florida’s injury woes—Tkachuk (groin), Ekblad (suspended), and Barkov (upper-body)—contrast with Tampa’s healthy roster and 20-6-5 run since January 30. Tampa’s power play matches Florida’s (9.56 xGF/60), but their top-10 penalty kill (80.3%) gives a slight edge. Tampa performs better when Florida takes penalties (20-9-3), which could disrupt the Panthers’ disciplined style. Tampa’s offensive firepower, goaltending, and health make them the pick to win in six or seven games.

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NFL Draft Props

Saturday, Apr 19, 2025

Top be a Top 10 Pick - Tetairoa McMillian (+430)According to most NFL insiders McMillan is the clear WR1 (not including Travis Hunter) in this year's NFL draft, making him a hot commodity for teams in need of a 6’4 220 lb monster. If McMillian had shown a bit more speed (ran a 4.48 40 yard dash reported by Jordan Schulz), he would be a consensus top 10 pick. Still, multiple teams in the top third of the draft order are desperate to get help at receiver. The Raiders, Jets, Panthers, Saints, and Cowboys are teams to target a player like McMillan. Three WRs went in the top 10 in the 2024 draft, showing teams willingness to invest high picks in playmakers. An NFL comparison to Drake London is a good sign, since London was the number eight overall pick in 2022. London and McMillan also ran very similar 40 times. As always, every mock draft is different and speculation runs wild with players as well as potential trades. For the current price, McMillan can return a lot of value with numerous mock drafts forecasting him as a top 10 selection.Team to Draft Shedeur Sanders- New York Giants (+350)Sanders has been mocked all over the first round, but it seems a majority project him to either go to the Saints at the nine spot (+150) or to the Giants at number three. New York does not have a patient fanbase and the star power of Sanders seems like a perfect fit on paper. If the Giants pass on Shedeur and he goes on to have a successful rookie year elsewhere, GM Joe Schoen will have some hard questions to answer. This pick relies heavily on what the Browns do with the number two overall pick. If Travis Hunter is off the board, the Giants might be more inclined to select their franchise QB, but if Abdul Carters goes at two, Hunter may be higher on New York's draft board. Watch for lots of movement on draft night as the Jets and Browns may also be willing to gamble on Sanders. First Offensive Lineman Drafted - Josh Simmons (+8000)A longshot on paper, this prop holds some value due to the uncertainty the public has on how NFL teams assess players. Ohio State’s Josh Simmons tore his patellar tendon six games into 2024, but was arguably in line to be the top tackle drafted in 2025. Simmons did a limited workout at the Ohio State pro day a few weeks ago, where recovery seemed to be going as planned. Thought by many to be the best true left tackle in the draft, some teams like the Patriots at four may be willing to overlook the recent injury to get a cornerstone left tackle. A sprinkle on Simmons could payout big, and we know the Patriots, for example, have shown major contrarian thinking in the draft in years past. 

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World Series Projections

Wednesday, Mar 26, 2025

Favorite - Philadelphia Phillies (+1000)The Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to repeat as World Series champs, but the return is not favorable for LAD at +240. If one team has the ability to knock off the 2025 favorites, it is the Phillies. They currently have the 2nd highest active payroll and plenty of talent to compete with anyone in the league. Last season Philly finished with the second most wins, and dominated at home winning a league best 54 games at Citizen Bank Park. However, that sensational performance only amounted to a disappointing divisional series loss to the Mets in four games. On offense, Philadelphia has an elite top five of their batting order, projected as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos. Ranked top five in almost all offensive categories in 2024, except the Phillies to have elite bats once again. On defense, Zack Wheeler is the highest paid starter in baseball, while having exceptional depth behind him. Having a top tier roster (or payroll) is not necessary to win the World Series, but it certainly helps when trying to dethrone the heavily favored Dodgers. Philly is one of the few who can compete with them on paper. Mid-Tier - Detroit Tigers (+3000)Even though Detroit ended their season to Cleveland in the divisional round, losing the series 3-2, they still finished as one of the hottest teams in MLB. The Tigers were 55-63 in August, then finished the regular season 31-12, sporting the best pitching in the league during that stretch. A historic ending to 2024 leaves high hopes for Detroit in 2025. Pitching is the catalyst for the Tigers, led by reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty are extremely solid while Jackson Jobe is possibly the best pitching prospect in the sport, with a flamethrower of an arm. With a rotation like that, the Tigers will be in a lot of close ball games. They led MLB in one run wins last season with 31, but hope to have a better run differential in 2025. They have an elite group of pitchers, making them dangerous for any team to face.  Long-Shot - Milwaukee Brewers (+5000)Each year the Brewers seem to lose a few of their best players, yet reload again and again in true moneyball fashion. They have made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons which is one of the best marks in the league, especially considering their 23rd ranked payroll. Milwaukee had a top 5 team ERA last season, and the rotation is expected to be strong again with the return of star Brandon Woodruff. The batting is led by veteran Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and young star Jackson Chourio. The Brewers should once again be in contention for a NL Central title with the chance to make some noise come playoff time. Milwaukee seems to get the absolute most bang for their buck when it comes to players, maybe their World Series odds could provide some value as well.  

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NCAA Potential Cinderellas

Tuesday, Mar 04, 2025

These are teams that will obviously have to win their conference tournaments to get into the Dance, but if they do, they have the recipe to potentially give higher seeded teams problems in the NCAA Tournament...George Mason Patriots (22-7) - Currently 2nd in the A10 (13-3)The Patriots may be the owners of the most notable Cinderella story in NCAA  history, when they made a Final Four appearance as an eleven seed in 2006. Winners of 12 of their last 14 games, another NCAA appearance may be in store. George Mason ranks as the 12th best scoring defense in all of college basketball while being led by Darius Maddox (13.4 ppg) and Jalen Haynes (13.2) on offense. Like all the teams on this list, the Patriots will need to win their upcoming conference tournament in order to have a chance to dance this March. North Alabama Lions (23-9) - Currently tied for 1st in the ASUN (14-4)Previously a Division II school until 2022, Northern Alabama has made a name for itself in the ASUN. Junior Jacari Lane is the sole of this team, scoring nearly 17 points a game, coming off a 31 point outing vs Austin Peay on Monday. Notably, four other North Alabama players average double figures to balance out a high scoring attack. The Lions will play Queens University in the ASUN semifinals on March 6th.  High Point Panthers (26-5) - Currently 1st in the Big South (14-2)High Point has a deadly scoring trio of Kenza Giffa, D’Maurian Williams, Kimani Hamilton who all average over 13.8ppg. Riding an eleven game winning streak, this Panthers team would be disappointed to miss the NCAA tournament. They are currently projected a 13 seed by ESPN and may be a popular upset pick no matter who they matchup with in the field of 68. High Point will start their Big Sky tournament on March 7th. McNeese Cowboys (25-6) - Currently 1st in the Southland (19-1)A seeming shoe-in for a NCAA tournament bid, McNeese still needs to take care of conference business, but is projected as a 12 seed currently. Of course the 12 vs 5 matchup never disappoints and the Cowboys will get to play spoiler as one of the best Mid-Major schools in the field, assuming they make it. In their two matchups against ranked appointments, they only lost to number 2 ranked Alabama by 8 points and number 25 ranked Mississippi State by 3 points, showing they can at least hang with elite competition while destroying almost all lesser teams.  Utah Valley Wolverines (21-7) - Currently 1st in the WAC (13-1)Fresh off their 100 point outing and demolition of Southern Utah, Utah Valley has now won 16 of their last 17 games after a rocky start to the year. A current projected 14 seed, the Wolverines have three scorers averaging over 12.6ppg. Grand Canyon poses the biggest threat to Utah Valley with the teams splitting their two conference matchups and GCU being the only team to beat the Wolverines since December 14th. Watch for a third likely matchup on March 15th in the WAC Championship. 

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Super Bowl Longshots

Wednesday, Feb 19, 2025

Cincinnati Bengals (+1700) (7th shortest odds)Philly opens the offseason with the shortest odds (+650) to win Super 60 in San Francisco next February, and deservingly so after dismantling every team they faced in the playoffs this year. However, history tells us there will likely be a new champion at this time next year since only nine times has a team repeated with back-to-back Super Bowl wins. The only team to also finish on a five game winning streak was the Bengals, even though they did miss the playoffs. Joe Burrow regained his MVP level play and it seems like Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins will be back in 2025. Of course some crucial roster moves will be needed on the defensive side of the ball, but the Bengals will return their main pieces to an offense that was sixth in total scoring last year. As the Chiefs seem to be getting older and losing steam, watch for Cincinnati to regain their spot atop the AFC ranks that they had back in 2022. Washington Commanders (+2300) (9th shortest odds)Jayden Daniels is fresh off a NFC championship game appearance, cementing his historic rookie season, yet Washington is regarded by oddsmakers well below the other three teams to play in the semi finals. Mastermind OC Kliff Kingsbury will be staying with the team a second year as they build pieces for another playoff run. The Commanders had the 13th ranked defense and the 5th best scoring offense. All signs point to Washington as a sure fire playoff team, missing only a few pieces to improve on their already great finish in 2024. Having an elite, young QB is a vital piece to any Super Bowl team, and a big reason all three teams on this list have value. Denver Broncos (+5500) (21st shortest odds)Another surprising playoff team from 2024 has great odds as they look to build on their success. Bo Nix quietly had a fantastic rookie campaign throwing for 3775 yards, 29 TDs, and 12 Ints. Finally Sean Peyton looked like he had his ideal players to run the scheme he wanted. They ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 10th in scoring offense, showing they are one of the most balanced teams in the league. Nix, on a rookie deal, gives Denver lots of freedom to make moves with the expanding salary cap. The addition of a few difference makers, whether in free agency, or the draft, may be all that the Broncos need. Momentum is a huge factor, and these teams feel like they are moving in the right direction with key pieces in place. 

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NBA All Star Game Analysis and Prediction

Sunday, Feb 16, 2025

2025 NBA All-Star Game Odds & Analysis   The NBA All-Star Weekend has taken a new twist this year with a four-team tournament setup, featuring some of the league's legends as coaches. Here's a breakdown of the teams, odds, and some predictions: These games will be played with the first team to score 40-points advancing.   The Teams: Shaq's OGs: This team is the OGs as the name implies with some of the league’s best Vets. The ‘old guys’ on this roster include LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, James Harden along with young stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. They are favored at +135 to win the whole event. Chuck's Global Stars: Chuck’s roster is mainly made up of international stars and foreign-born players. This lineup features: Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alperen Sengun, Donovan Mitchell, Pascal Siakam, Trae Young and Karl-Anthony Towns. This team has the two best players in the NBA on their roster with SGA and the Joker. They come in at +190, and if Giannis was in the lineup, would be the best bet of the day to win it all. Kenny's Young Stars: Featuring rising stars like Anthony Edwards and Jalen Brunson, this team could be a tough out for anyone considering these guys will play hard no matter what the circumstances are. Rounding out this roster is: Tyler Herro, Cade Cunningham, Darius Garland, Jaren Jackson Jr, Evan Mobley and Jalen Williams. They're listed at +340 to win it all. Candace's Rising Stars: The wildcard here, as they'll consist of the winners from the Rising Stars event. This is a very big moment for these young guys, and we don’t expect them to survive the pressure of the All-Star atmosphere. With odds at +850, this team is the long shot and will have their hands full in the opening game against Shaq’s OGs. Stephon Castle, Dalton Knecht, Jaylen Wells, Keyonte George, Zach Edey, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Ryan Dunn and Amen Thompson.   Game Spreads and Totals: Chuck vs. Kenny: Team Chuck is favored by 4.5 points. The total points set at 74.5 for this game.  We expect Team Chuck to advance and cover the spread in the process. Shaq vs. Candace: A 6.5-point spread in favor of Shaq's team, with a total of 72.5 points. Even though these teams are only playing to 40-points, the old guys will win and cover in the process.   Betting Prediction:   Team Chuck at +190: All of these rosters are loaded, but we like the value with Team Chuck at +190. This roster features the MVP favorites Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and has a great mix of players to complement them. They have a balanced attack that could be hard to stop with Mitchell, Towns and Young who can space the floor with their perimeter shooting. Wemby gives them a shot-blocker and rim protector in the middle. Siakam and Sengun are energy guys and will hit the boards hard and play defense.   Conclusion:   ·       The NBA ratings have plummeted this season and this is an attempt by Adan Silver to create a competitive environment on All-Star weekend. We actually feel this might work and expect games to have some semblance of defense which hasn't been the case in the past decade. Enjoy the games on Sunday. 

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NFL Championship Weekend Player Props

Thursday, Jan 23, 2025

Terry McLaurin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)McLaurin had 89 receiving yards in the Wild Card round against Tampa and 87 yards last week to knock off the number one seeded Lions. He can take the top off the defense and has the ability to create big plays in the YAC department as he did last week, taking a 58 yard screen pass to the house. Philly is favored (-6) which should give McLaurin a few extra targets, likely playing from behind. Terry is a focal point for the Commanders and has been fantastic all season both as a wide receiver and leader in the locker room. The offensive team captain has surpassed at least 60 receiving yards in 12 of 19 games this season, and he will be relied on again to give the Commanders a shot at the Super Bowl.  Saquon Barkley Over 125.5 Rushing Yards (-115)This rushing line shows how ridiculous Saquon has been in 2024, and his line comes in right on pace with his regular season per game average. He rushed for 146 yards in week 11 and 150 yards in week 16 against the Commanders 30th ranked rushing defense. Washington gave up 138 ypg on the ground during the regular season, and one can expect a massive dose of Barkley on Sunday at the Linc. The Eagles would like nothing more than to allow their elite offensive line to maul Washington, paving the way for Saquon to continue his historic rushing postseason. Josh Allen Over Anytime TD (-105)Big Josh Allen (6’5 235) has been using his legs all year long, punching in 14 rushing touchdowns this season. With the Super Bowl on the line, Allen will be more willing than ever to extend possessions and make every redzone opportunity count. Any plays inside the 10 yard line may be designed QB runs to go along with any goalline plays being possible “tush pushes”. Buffalo should have plenty of scoring opportunities as they bring their 2nd ranked scoring offense into Kansas City. Allen will need to run the ball as much as it takes to finally get over the hump against Mahomes and the Chiefs. James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)Cook has surpassed his designated rushing mark in both postseason games, averaging 93.5 yards in those two games. He has seen 40 carries total, making it likely he will see another 15 at least in the cold night at Arrowhead. Cook is explosive and efficient, and as long as the Bills remain within striking distance, he will play a huge role for Buffalo. The Bills need to win the line of scrimmage to allow some explosive plays over the top of the Chiefs beatable defense. In a toss up matchup (KC -2), this game will be won on the ground, allowing Cook every chance to go three for three hitting his postseason rushing prop. 

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NFL Wildcard Weekend Player Props

Thursday, Jan 09, 2025

Bills - RB James Cook Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)Cook, somewhat quietly, had a monster year in Buffalo amassing 1K yards while punching in a league-most 16 touchdowns. Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs also tied that touchdown number but seem to get more notoriety than Cook. Of the ten running backs to amas 1K yards and have double digit touchdowns, Cook saw the least amount of carries, speaking for his efficiency and nose for the end zone. Sunday’s noon matchup against Denver has the Bills as heavy favorites (-9) which bodes well for a run heavy game script. Cook plays on average 48% of the offensive snap while averaging 63 ypg on the ground. During playoff time, expect Cook to be on the field more than usual and the Bills to lean on him to close the game. Eagles - WR AJ Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)Arthur Juan Brown was nagged by a hamstring issue to start the year but since managed to get to 1K yards with seven touchdowns in just 13 games. He ranked fifth in receiving yards per game with 83. A physical specimen and one of the best big body pass catchers in the game, he is in store for lots of volume this week. The Packers are without Jaire Alexander, leaving a thin secondary to try and contain both Brown and DeVonta Smith. Green Bay also has to worry about stopping Saquon Barkley and getting pressure against one of the best offensive lines in football. Brown had 119 yards on 5 catches in their week 1 matchup against the Pack in Brazil. He has the chance to do similar damage in the Wild Card round. Commanders - WR Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Scary Terry has surpassed this current yardage total in 10 of his last 15 games. McLaurin had nearly 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns in a major bounce back year with rookie Jayden Daniels. Keep in mind, there were also numerous occasions Daniels missed McLaurin for big plays, highlighting the elite wide receiver that he is. The matchup at Tampa Bay is the highest point total of the weekend (50.5), and for good reason, as both defenses have major issues. Tampa ranked 29th in passing yards allowed with Washington ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed. In the warm Tampa weather, points will be flowing in this one, which is fantastic news for Terry’s yardage total. 

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NFL Sunday Night Player Prop

Saturday, Dec 28, 2024

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington CommandersSunday, Dec 29th at 8:15 PM ET PLAYER PROP – Washington QB Jayden Daniels Over 48.5 Rushing Yards Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders has been a dynamic force on the ground this season, averaging 8.5 rushes and 49 rushing yards per game. This trend looks set to continue against the Atlanta Falcons, who have shown vulnerabilities in defending against quarterback runs. Daniels has managed to exceed 66 rushing yards in three of his last four games, showcasing his ability to break significant yardage. Additionally, he has hit the 50-yard mark or higher in four of his last six home games, indicating a strong performance trend at home. The Falcons currently rank 28th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against quarterback runs, which suggests a favorable matchup for Daniels. This matchup could provide him with ample opportunities to exploit the defense with his legs, potentially leading to another high-rushing yardage game.  Daniels ranks 2nd among QBs in YPG rushing and when Atlanta faced Philadelphia’s QB Hurts, who ranks 3rd in rushing among QB’s, he ran for nearly 90 yards.   Given these stats and trends, Daniels is likely to have a notable impact on the ground. Prop bets focused on his rushing yards could be a smart play, particularly if set around or slightly above his recent averages which is where it sits right now at 48.5.  Facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL at limiting QB runs, we look for Daniels to get into at least the 50’s for his rushing yards on Sunday night.

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NFL Monday Night Player Prop

Sunday, Dec 22, 2024

NFL MONDAY NIGHT PLAYER PROP - Green Bay Packers - Josh Jacobs - Over 88.5 Rushing Yards: Current Form: Josh Jacobs has been in exceptional form this season, showcasing his ability to carry the load for Green Bay's offense. Heading into this game, Jacobs ranks third in the NFL with 1,147 rushing yards and is 4th in rushing attempts per game. Matchup Advantage: The Saints' defense has struggled significantly against the run this season, ranking 30th in the league by allowing 4.9 yards per rush. They've also given up an average of 134 rushing yards per game, which places them 27th league-wide. This matchup is particularly favorable for Jacobs, who thrives against weaker run defenses.  Green Bay has faced 5 rush defenses so far this season ranked 20th or lower.  In those games Jacobs has averaged 104 YPG on the ground. Game Script: We expect the Packers to get a lead (14 point favorites) and lean heavily on their run game to control the clock and the game's tempo, especially with the Saints' pass defense performing better than their rush defense. A strategy focusing on ground control could see Jacobs exceeding his rushing yard prop. Statistical Insights: Given the Saints' defensive stats, Jacobs has a clear path to go over 88.5 rushing yards. His season average of approximately 82.3 yards per game, combined with the Saints' vulnerabilities, suggests he's likely to hit this mark. Jacobs has also forced 60 missed tackles this season, second among running backs, indicating his ability to make something out of nothing even when the defense is stacked against him.  Conclusion: Given the matchup, Josh Jacobs stands a strong chance of going over his 88.5 rushing yards prop. His current form, the Saints' poor run defense, and a game script that could favor a ground-heavy approach all point towards a big night for Jacobs on the ground. Betting on Jacobs to exceed this threshold could be a wise choice for those looking at player props for this Monday Night Football game 

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NFL Player Props - Thanksgiving Day

Monday, Nov 25, 2024

BEARS - Caleb Williams Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)The first overall draft pick from 2024 has been one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL this year, showing flashes of greatness while simultaneously making plenty of head scratching plays. He is fresh off one of his best games throwing for 340 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks in a tough divisional loss against the Vikings. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze still make up one of the best receiving corps in football and will be called upon again against the Lions number one ranked scoring offense. Williams threw the ball 47 times last week, and a negative game script is in store again on Turkey Day against Detroit who has won nine straight, six of them by at least 10 points. Detroit ranks 25th in passing yards allowed so all signs point to a nice statistical day for Williams.  COWBOYS - Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (Even)Dowdle has taken over the Dallas backfield in recent weeks seeing almost 17 touches per game over the past four games. He only has one touchdown during that span but is due against the sorry looking Giants who gave up four rushing touchdowns against Tampa Bay, allowing each of their three running backs and Baker Mayfield to all punch one in. Dallas pulled off an improbable win against Washington last week, moving the ball very effectively with Rico as a featured piece. New York is giving up nearly 150 rushing yards per game and a running back seeing so much volume in a solid offense should have a great chance to find the end zone against them. DOLPHINS - Tyreek Hill Over 63.5 Rec Yards (-115)Miami is finally looking like the Dolphins of last year scoring 34 points each of the past two games. It was a Jaylen Waddle game last week and oddly enough Jonnu Smith has out produced Tyreek Hill in recent weeks as well. Still, the offense is starting to flow again and Hill remains a nightmare for opposing coordinators. With Tua back in the groove, it does not take much for Tyreek to get loose. Despite his wrist injury, Tua still loves to target Hill (14 targets the last 2 weeks) so we expect him to get his chances.  Miami badly needs a win to stay in playoff contention and Hill has been patient with the rocky season his team and Quarterback have had. Expect Tyreek to hit some big plays at Lambeau to cap off the Holiday.  

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NFL Player Props - Week 11

Thursday, Nov 14, 2024

Lamar Jackson over 42.5 Rush Yards (-115)Jackson has surpassed 45 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season. In the previous two weeks he has not needed to use his legs as much, shredding the Broncos and Bengals in the midst of throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He matches up against the Steelers and their second ranked scoring defense on the road this Sunday. A better defense actually suits Jackson’s rushing prop as he will be forced to run more rather than get what he wants from the pocket. Lamar has only played in 2 of the previous 6 games against Pittsburgh, and he rushed for 55 and 45 yards respectively. Expect Jackson to return to his scrambling ways in a huge divisional matchup in the highest projected point total of the weekend. Christian McCaffrey Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-120)CMC was finally back last week and totalled 107 yards with 68 receiving yards on seven targets. With such involvement in the passing game, especially after missing every game so far this season, McCaffrey will see plenty of volume once again. Another hotly contested division game has the second highest O/U of week 11. Seattle has a middle of the road defense but can fill it up on offense. Points should be plentiful and if CMC plays 88% of the running back snaps again, it's hard to imagine he does not amass his receiving total. Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+120) Hill caught his first touchdown since week one in last week's win vs the Rams. Since Tua has been back, the Dolphins offense went from abysmal to just mediocre. With so many weapons and Tyreek’s immense talent it's only a matter of time before Miami gets back on track. Hill had so many explosive plays and 13 TDs last season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in points allowed in 2024 and if Reek is ever going to have a breakout game, its going to be after a big win while gaining chemistry back with his quarterback against a bad team. Hill has nine targets the past two games combined which is unacceptable. The squeaky wheel treatment better be in store for the NFLs fastest man. 

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NFL Player Props - Week 8

Friday, Oct 25, 2024

Chuba Hubbard Over Anytime TD (+150)We have talked about Hubbard before and he has continued to deliver in 2024. He has a touchdown in four of his first seven games this year and remains the lone bright spot of a horrid Panthers offense. On top of that, he ranks fifth in rushing yards. Rookie Jonathan Brooks is ramping up to play and will surely take work from Hubbard but he looks to be a few weeks out from taking meaningful volume. Since week two, Chuba has seen nearly 20 touches a week and with that trend continuing, its great value with positive odds that he finds his way to the endzone once again. Even on one of the worst offenses in the league, someone still has to score. Davante Adams Over 58.5 Rec Yards (-115)Adams saw nine targets in his first action reunited with Aaron Rodgers last week. He only converted those into 30 yards however. On a short week, Adams played 96% of the snaps against the Steelers. Expect that number to remain high and Rodgers to feed Adams against the Patriots 24th ranked passing defense in week 8. During their last season in Green Bay, Adams and Rodgers connected for an average of 97 yards per game. A full week in the offense and some renewed chemistry should get the Jets offense back on track and Adams over his yardage total. Geno Smith Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-115) The league's passing yardage leader gets a home bout against the Bills this week in a possible shootout (O/U 47). Yes Geno is leading the NFL in passing yards averaging 284 yards per game. New OC Ryan Grubb has taken Smith’s QB play to a level we have not seen from the veteran. Buffalo ranks fifth in total points which will demand a high scoring game from Seattle. DK Metcalf is questionable to play but Tyler Lockett and Jaxson Smith-Njigba are more than capable to carry a larger workload in what should be a negative game script against the 5-2 Bills. Geno has surpassed 284 yards in five of seven games. There should be high confidence he can get to at least 250 yards once again. 

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NFL Player Props - Week 5

Friday, Oct 04, 2024

Garrett Wilson Over 52.5 Rec Yards (-115)Wilson has disappointed this season, being out produced by Aaron Rodgers' old companion Allen Lazard through four games. Still, Wilson is averaging nearly 48 yards per game. For as great as the Vikings defense has been this year, (ranking 4th in total points allowed) they have shockingly allowed the most passing yards in the entire NFL so far. Nearly a quarter of the way into the 2024 season, Minnesota is giving up nearly 275 yards per game through the air. Garret Wilson is too good and there is simply too much opportunity against this Vikings secondary to think Rodgers wont find a way to get his number target more looks. Wilson should deliver early on Sunday morning for a nice wakeup call from London. Chuba Hubbard Over Anytime TD (+120)Since Andy Dalton took over the Panthers offense in week 3, Chuba has been fantastic. In the past two weeks he has 48 touches for 290 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Hubbard currently has a stranglehold on the Panther RB room, playing 74% of the snaps last week. Chicago has a stout defense but ranks 19th in rushing yards allowed. Hubbard, in his third NFL season, has the ability to run between the tackles and has developed great hands to be a true every down back in Carolina. Rookie Jonathan Brooks will return from his ACL injury eventually this year, but for now Hubbard is the focal point for the Panthers and a good bet to keep his scoring streak alive this week. Jayden Daniels Over Anytime TD (+130)Daniels has four rushing touchdowns total and at least one in three of his first four games. Quickly being anointed as the best rookie QB in this class, he has led the Commanders to the third most points in the NFL this season. They had a scoring streak of 16 straight possessions finally snapped last week in a blowout win against the Cardinals. Daniels has been so hard to stop because of his willingness to extend drives using his legs. He has 46 rushing attempts in four games, and that becomes particularly dangerous for defenses in the RedZone. Washington has an elite offense and Daniels likes to run when his first reads are not open. There will be multiple opportunities for him to run another TD in this week and getting positive odds seems like great value. 

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NFL Sunday Night Preview and Props - Bills vs Ravens

Saturday, Sep 28, 2024

The upcoming Sunday Night Football game on September 29, 2024, features an exciting matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens, both teams’ contenders to win it all this season. Here's a quick preview: Buffalo Bills: Coming into this game, the Bills are looking to maintain their undefeated streak, having dominated in their first three games. Josh Allen has been in exceptional form, leading the offense throwing 7 touchdowns without an interception so far this season. The Bills' defense has also stepped up, significantly allowing just 20-total points in their last two games after giving up 28 vs Arizona in week 1.  Buffalo leads the NFL in YPP differential at +1.9 and they have the best point differential at +64. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens, under Lamar Jackson, are coming off a crucial win against the Dallas Cowboys, which might just be the momentum they need. Despite a 1-2 start this team leads the league in total yards per game at 430.3, rank 1st in yards per play (6.7) and are 2nd in overall rushing. Lamar Jackson's mobility could be a key in this game facing a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC this season.  When the Bills faced a mobile QB in week 1, Arizona's Kyler Murray, he rushed for over 10 YPC.   Game Expectation: This game is set to be a clash of styles and strategies. The Bills will likely aim to control the game through Josh Allen's arm as they face a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and YPC allowed.  Conversely, the Ravens might rely heavily on their ground game and Jackson's dual-threat capabilities to keep Buffalo's defense on the field as Buffalo's defensive weakness seems to be stopping the ground game. Key Points to Watch: Josh Allen vs. Ravens Defense: Can Allen continue his turnover-free streak against a Ravens defense that's been known for creating chaos? Lamar Jackson's Mobility: How will the Bills contain Jackson's ability to extend plays with his legs? Ravens' Run Game: Will Baltimore's consistent rushing attack find success against Buffalo's defensive front?   This game promises not only a battle of AFC titans but also a showcase of two of the league's most dynamic quarterbacks. Looking for better betting opportunities than just the Side or Total, we have found several player props that offer value.   Player Prop Bet Predictions: Josh Allen (QB, Bills) - Over 232.5 Passing Yards: Reason: Josh Allen has been highly efficient in all three games this season and owns the highest QBR rating in the NFL at 133.7. His overall passing YPG is only 211PYPG but he only threw it 19 times against the Dolphins in W2, a blowout Bills win. We expect a big game here, given the Ravens' vulnerable pass defense this season. Baltimore is allowing 291 passing yards per game which is the most in the NFL. The Ravens D allows 7.5 Yards Per Pass Attempt. Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens) - Over 57.5 Rushing Yards: Reason: Lamar Jackson is known for his legs and has averaged 84.7 rushing YPG this season, the second leading rusher on the team. The Bills have a solid overal defense, ranking 6th in DVOA, but they are susceptible to the run. Buffalo gives up 4.7 yards per carry (24th) and 118.3 rushing YPG (16th).   James Cook (RB, Bills) - Over 2.5 Receptions made: Reason: With the Ravens' defense being one of the best in the league against the run, we will look at Cook and his receiving props. Cook might not hit massive rushing numbers on the ground but should get enough targets coming out of the backfield. The Ravens pressure on QB Allen will force check downs to backs out of the backfield to push his receptions over this number. Cook is averaging 2.67 receptions per game and has been Over this number in 5 of his last 6 games.

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Week 1 NFL Player Props

Monday, Sep 02, 2024

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-125)This matchup has shootout written all over it and boasts the second highest scoring total of the weekend (O/U 49.5). There are lots of preseason question marks on the Miami defense leaving room for Lawrence to sling it all over the field in order to keep up with the Dolphins explosive offense. In 2023, the Dolphins had the 22rd ranked scoring defense and likely got worse on that side of the ball during the offseason. The Jags added the big bodies of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to win contested catches in the Red Zone, helping Lawrence boost his passing stats in his fourth season. Jacksonville will score multiple touchdowns on Sunday, and TLaw is in for a big day to start his 2024 campaign. Zamir White Over 51.5 Rush Yards (-115)White is replacing Josh Jacobs as the workhorse running back in Las Vegas with basically zero other competition for opportunities. In the concluding four games without Jacobs last year, White averaged 21 attempts per game and nearly 100 rushing yards per game. Going into year three, White is poised to be a key factor in what the Raiders wish to do, which is play defense and run the ball. This matchup is likely to see the most rushing attempts of the weekend and White should see at least 15 rushing attempts himself. At 6’0 215, even a fraction of the efficiency we saw from the end of last season will get White to his yardage goal week 1.  Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 Rec Yards (-115)Its weird to think, but the Rams defense has fallen from the ranks in recent years and is expected to be one of the worst units in the NFL for 2024. Similar to the Jags/Dolphins matchup, this one has the highest point total in the league for week 1 (O/U 51). Ra averaged 95 receiving yards per game last year, and a juicy matchup in front of a buzzing crowd at Ford Field will get the Sun God activated early this year. With such a high scoring game expected from oddsmakers, it's hard to see where the disconnect is for Detroit's star wide receiver. Last year St. Brown went over 80 yards in eleven of his sixteen games. 

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Longshot to Win the SEC

Saturday, Aug 24, 2024

ASA’s LONGSHOT TO WIN SEC Missouri +2500 at FanDuel Don’t sleep on this Missouri team in 2024.  Since they aren’t named Georgia or Alabama or LSU, we’re guessing many have already forgotten the Tigers finished with an 11-2 season last year and beat Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl.  Their 2 losses came at the hands of UGA and LSU and a look at the stats in those setbacks reveals that Mizzou played both toe to toe (almost dead even total yardage).  The Tigers bring back QB Cook who was one of the top QB’s in the league passing for over 3,300 yards and rushing for over 500 yards.  He has arguably the top WR in the nation, Luther Burden (86 receptions for 1200 yards), as his top target.  We have the Tigers offensive line rated as one of the top 20 units in the nation returning 4 starters from a team that finished in the top 15 in both yards before contact (rushing) and pressure rated allowed (passing).  They did lose their top RB but brought in 2 transfers that accounted for over 5,000 career rushing yards at App State and Georgia State.  The offense put up over 32 PPG last year and we look for 35+ PPG in 2024.  The defense was very solid last year finishing in the top 35 in both scoring defense and total defense.  Mizzou did lose some starters on that side of the ball but brought in key transfers from Florida, Clemson and Michigan State that should pick up the slack.  New DC Batoon comes in after leading South Alabama’s defense to a top 15 overall ranking (total defense).  They won’t need to be great on that side of the ball with the offense expected to be outstanding.  Lastly, the schedule really lays out in Missouri’s favor this year.  They avoid UGA, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss who are 4 of the top 5 teams in the SEC when it comes to odds to win the conference.  Their toughest road game is @ Alabama but they catch the Tide at a great time transitioning to a new coaching staff and new systems on both sides of the ball.  Missouri has a chance to make some waves in the SEC this year and at 25/1 they are worth looking at to win the conference. 

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Pittsburgh Steelers Win Projection

Monday, Aug 12, 2024

ASA’s AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION Pittsburgh Steelers – UNDER 8.5 Wins (-140) We’re going against the grain a bit here as the Steelers have never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin.  We think this is the year that streak ends.  Truth be told, that run really should have ended last season.  Pittsburgh finished with a 10-7 record a year ago but they ended the season with a negative point differential, they were outgained on the year both YPG and YPP, and had fewer rushing and passing yards than their opponents.  They finished 9-2 in games decided by a TD or less and while they went 5-1 in NFC North play, 4 of those 5 wins they faced back up QB’s vs Cincinnati (both games), Baltimore and Cleveland.  Those successes will be very difficult to duplicate in back to back years.  As will their turnover margin of +11 which was the 3rd best in the NFL last year.  To say they were fortunate to get to 10 wins is an understatement as their projected win total based on point differential and key stats was under 8.  The Steelers did bring in 2 new signal callers in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  The problem is, Wilson is on the downside of his career (13th year) and wasn’t great the last 2 season in Denver while Fields has never lived up to the hype with just a 10-28 record as a starter.  The defense allowing just 19.7 PPG last season but their YPG (21st) and YPP (23rd) numbers were not in line with their scoring defense so again, we feel they were fortunate on that side of the ball.  Pittsburgh just happens to have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this season based on opponents expected win totals.  They better get off to a red hot start if they expect to get to 9 wins this season as they back half of their schedule (final 8 games) is brutal.  A fast start might be tough with a new offensive coordinator, new QB, and they play 4 of their first 6 games on the road.  We think an 8 win season for Pittsburgh would be really solid this year and that still lands them under this total     

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WNBA Fails in Catching this Rising Star

Friday, Jul 19, 2024

There hasn’t been anyone as polarizing in the game of basketball since Michael Jordan arrived in the NBA in 1984 as Caitlin Clark in the WNBA this season. Clark put a spotlight on women’s basketball with a historic career at Iowa University and is easily the most popular player in the entire W in her rookie season with the Indiana Fever. To phrase this as delicately as possible, there have been several different approaches in her media coverage this season. Some pundits basically refuse to give her credit or acknowledge her greatness, largely because of petty jealousy and insecurities. The other end of the spectrum is the crazed fan that can’t rationally assess her objectively. We’re here to set the record straight with Caitlin Clark and grade her statistically thus far in her rookie season. By the numbers… In 26 games this season she is averaging 17.1PPG (12th), 5.8RPG (19th) and 8.2APG (1st). The Fever stand 11-15 SU on the season which is five more wins than they had last season at this time. In her days at the University of Iowa she was known as a scorer first when she set the NCAA all-time scoring record. In the WNBA she has become an assist machine with 13+ assists in four games this season including 19 in a game which broke the all-time WNBA record for one game. She currently ranks 12th in the league in overall usage percentage. Where does she stand historically as a rookie? She is averaging 15+ points, 5+ rebounds and 5+ assists per contest through her first 26 games of the season, something only Ionescu (twice), Candace Parker and Lindsay Whalen have done. She is one of only 4 total players in the entire league to rank in the top 20 in points per game, rebounding and assists per game. Making comparisons to some of the league’s all-time greats at the guard position in the WNBA we find some similar statistics. Diana Taurasi won rookie of the year in 2004 and helped the Mercury to a 17-17 regular season record in her first season in the league. Taurasi, who is on the short list as one of the greatest WNBA players ever, averaged 17PPG, 4.4RPG, 3.9APG in her rookie campaign. Another former great, Sue Bird, had comparable numbers in her 2002 rookie season with the Storm – 14.4PPG, 2.6RPG, 6.0APG. Cynthia Cooper joined the W in the year 1997 and put up 22.2PPG, 4.0RPG, 4.7APG. Elena Delle Donne was a guard/forward for Chicago and had a successful rookie campaign of 18.1PPG, 5.6RPG, 1.8APG (Chicago went 24-10 SU in the regular season). The USA Olympic team does not include Clark and It’s a catty costly error by the selection committee. In 26 years, the WNBA has yet to show a profit financially and has been supported by the NBA. They’ve gained an immense following this season due to Caitlyn Clark. The Indiana Fever has seen the largest increase in attendance from last season with a 312 percent increase. Overall, the league’s average attendance is up 40.3 percent from their final average from 2023. The biggest indicator of Clark’s impact comes when you examine the road attendance in games involving the Fever. Indiana leads the league in away game attendance at 15,333. In a recent game at Minnesota, against a Lynx team that is one of the four best in the W, there were far more Fever/Clark fans than Lynx fans, and it wasn’t close. Another interesting revelation regarding Clark’s impact on the league’s popularity is the All-Star voting numbers this season.  Last year A’ja Wilson was the league’s leading vote-getter with 90,000+ votes. This season Clark is over 750,000 votes, her teammate Aliyah Boston has over 600,000 votes. The missed marketing opportunity by the WNBA concerning Clark being on the Olympic team is a total travesty. The argument that Clark isn’t good enough to play on the Olympic team is absurd. The fact that she’s not on the team from a media/marketing standpoint is absolutely insane and negligent by the selection committee. The league was handed the ‘golden goose’ in terms of viewership and popularity and literally blew a perfect opportunity to grow their product. The USA Olympic team has won 7 straight gold medals and won by an average of 16PPG in 1996 in Tokyo and you’re telling me she couldn’t get minutes and or even be an asset with her current statistics? With their proven track record of NEVER being a profitable entity, the WNBA and the committee that selected the Olympic team clearly lack business sense. The betting markets have Clark as the clear betting favorite for Rookie of the Year and a heavy chalk at -1100. Behind her is Angel Reese at +650. Clark is +8000 to be WNBA MVP but we wouldn’t recommend making that wager as there are several players in the league that are significantly better than her and on Championship contenders. The best option to make some cash on Clark will be her player props. Early in the season her scoring prop was inflated, and she stayed Under her points prop in 15 of her first 21 games. She does go into the All-Star Break on a 4-0 Over streak though. She has eclipsed her Assist prop in 9 straight games going into the break and 16 of 26 games on the season.   We look forward to the second half of the WNBA season and can’t wait to see if Clark and the Fever can make a playoff push in the Eastern Conference. 

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NFL Full Season Player Props

Monday, Jul 15, 2024

Will Levis Over 3399.5 Passing yards (-110)In 2023, Levis averaged 200 passing yards per game during his nine starts. If you take that mark and multiply it by the 17 games he's expected to start next season, we get 3400 yards on the dot. Tennessee made it a point to get Levis some help this offseason adding Calvin Ridley,  Tony Pollard, and using a first round pick on an offensive lineman for the second consecutive year. Sophomore progression seems likely as the Titans were bottom five in total offense last year, looking insanely stagnant at times. A more pass happy attack is in store with the departure of Derrick Henry and Tennessee has a mediocre to bad defense further encouraging higher scoring affairs in 2024. New OC Nick Holz came from the Jaguars who ranked 9th in passing yards last season (243 ypg). There is zero QB competition for the Titans so if Levis stays healthy, he will have every opportunity to fight through any struggles that come up. De’Von Achane Over 750.5 Rushing Yards (-110)As explosive as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are in the passing game, Miami runs the ball as well as anyone in the NFL. They ranked sixth in rushing yards (136 ypg) while leading the league in yards per carry. Achane played a massive part in that efficiency, turning 103 attempts into 800 yards (7.8 ypc) in just 11 games. That explosion allows Achane to see a reduced workload or even miss some games due to injury and still be able to deliver his yardage total. If we take into account that Raheem Moster is 32 years old, having a lengthy injury history of his own, then Achane’s prop seems even more attainable. Possibly leading the Dolphins in rushing attempts, on a team that racked up over 2300 yards in 2023, Achane seems a no brainer. Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-110)Harrison is a physical specimen and will be Kyler Murray’s go to target from week one. Hollywood Brown departed for Kansas City, leaving no other established WR in the entire room. Harrison will be walking into 100+ targets and should have no trouble reaching the 1k mark in his rookie year. Murray’s health is the one thing to keep an eye on, but he did play in eight games after coming back from his ACL injury and remained healthy going into the offseason. With a couple highlights from upcoming training camp, Marvin Jr. will be a main topic of conversation and his prop yards may shift upwards in coming weeks. A Jamar Chase type of rookie year is well within reach for Harrison (81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TDs), it's just a matter of health and chemistry with Murray. 

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NFL MVP Wagers

Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024

Favorite - Joe Burrow (+1000)Injuries have plagued Cincinnati's young QB in two of four years so far. The Bengals have the sixth easiest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis making 2024 a prime bounce back year for Joey B. Tee Higgins signed his Franchise Tag securing arguably the best WR duo in league for at least one more year. When Burrow has been healthy, he has played like an elite QB, averaging 4.5k yards, 34TDs, and 13INTs in his two full seasons, during which he was also the most sacked QB in the NFL. In those seasons, the Bengals averaged 11 wins and won the AFC North each year. Cincinnati used its first round pick to draft Amarius Mims and also added Trent Brown who will help keep Burrow upright. Teams wins are a huge factor in MVP voting, so with a relatively easy schedule, top notch weapons, and beefed up protection, Burrow is in store for double digit wins once again with stats to justify an MVP case.    Sleeper - Justin Herbert (+2000) Herbert struggled last year as the Chargers took a step back because of injuries and poor coaching. Jim Harbaugh was brought in to right the ship and turnaround the Chargers perennial lack of clutchness. The pressure is off Herbert and no one seems to expect much of Los Angeles after letting Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler walk. New weapons will need to step up but a more spread target share may be what Herbert needs, similar to the way Jordan Love excelled in Green Bay last season. In three healthy seasons Herbert averaged about 4.7k yards, 32TDs, and 12INTs. A major positive to sprinkling money on Herby is his durability, missing only four games in four seasons as a Charger. LA has the second easiest SOS heading into this year and its leader will have full control to change the culture and use his first class arm talent to climb back into the elite QB ranks. Longshot - Jared Goff (+4000)Surprisingly Goff was second in the NFL in pass attempts last season (36 per game), even being in a run first offense. The Lions rolled through the NFC North and nearly went to the Super Bowl which raises the question as to why Goff did not receive one single MVP vote. He finished second in passing yards (4,575), fourth in passing TDs (30), only had 12INTs, and Detroit went 12-5. On top of that, he essentially had the exact same stats in 2022, repeating them for a second straight year and still seems to get disrespected as a system QB. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs accounted for 23 rushing TDs also taking away some potential stats. The Lions remain the team to beat in the North, building up exactly what Dan Campbell promised. Looking like a top 5 offense once again, Goff has plenty of room for even better stats and maybe some respect in 2024.

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