May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers
With most MLB starters now making at least 10 starts in the 2025 season there is a good sample size to consider. There are several pitchers that stand out as overachievers as we approach the end of the month of May, and these four American League starters may be worth considering playing against in future starting opportunities. Yusei Kikuchi – Los Angeles Angels Despite marginal numbers in six MLB seasons, Kikuchi snagged a nice three-year deal from the Angels in the off-season. The 33-year-old lefty was coming off two decent seasons and pitched well back in the AL West after being traded to the Astros last summer. In 11 starts with the Angels he has only one win, but his ERA is on pace to be a career best at 3.17. His FIP of 4.34 is well above his FIP in 2023 or 2024 however and his K/9 is the lowest since his MLB rookie season with Seattle in 2019. So far in 2025 Kikuchi has stranded over 82 percent of his baserunners, compared to a career average of just over 73 percent for a huge difference. Kikuchi has been one of the most at-risk starters for home runs in his career but so far in 2025 he has allowed only seven home runs in nearly 60 innings for a rate well below his career average. The Angels have competed better than expected this season but Kikuchi isn’t likely to sustain his impressive results in May with a 1.91 ERA in his last five starts and no losses. Jeffrey Springs – Sacramento Athletics Springs didn’t really have a breakout season until 2022 with the Rays as he was mostly a reliever early in his career. Injuries kept him off the mound for most of the past two seasons and he was picked up by the Athletics. With a 3.97 ERA in 59 innings Springs has solid results including posting five wins. He has not had the same strikeout potential as earlier in this career however with a 7.2 K/9 now at age 32. His BABIP so far this season is .234, well below his career norms, and he has been an extreme flyball pitcher this season but without the same strikeout potential as he had in 2022. Springs has not pitched well at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento with a 5.88 ERA in 26 innings at home as most of his starts so far this season have come on the road. In four of his five home starts he has allowed at least four runs for a concern moving forward, while the Athletics bullpen hasn’t done any of the team’s starters any favors in recent weeks with ugly results. Sean Burke – Chicago White SoxBurke was outstanding in 19 MLB innings last season, and he was on the AL Rookie of the Year radar this season. With an opportunity to be a regular starter for the White Sox, Burke still is in that race and his 4.33 ERA in 11 appearances has meant steady returns. His FIP is 5.68 however, and the 10.4 K/9 he posted in the small sample last season is nowhere to be found. In 54 innings Burke has allowed 30 walks while posting only 39 strikeouts, and while his numbers have improved in May compared with April, he has also had a few favorable matchups vs. lesser hitting teams in that run of moderate success. In his last start vs. a top offense, he allowed six runs vs. the Cubs and five times this season he has allowed four or more runs. Burke is only 25 and the former 3rd round pick still has serious potential but his run in May is likely as good as it will get for Burke this season. Ryan Pepiot – Tampa Bay Rays A third round pick in 2019, Pepiot showed some promise for the Dodgers in 2022 and 2023 and over 130 innings he had a solid season with the Rays last year. His ERA of 3.55 this season is nearly identical to the 3.60 ERA he had last season. The comparisons end there however as his FIP is much higher this season and his K/9 has fallen from 9.8 to 7.4. Pepiot is allowing more home runs, but he has so far been able to strand baserunners at a nearly 82 percent rate. Pepiot has pitched well in the Rays 2025 home in Tampa and 47 of 63 innings have been at home so far this season. That ratio will adjust in the upcoming schedule for the Rays as Pepiot has made only three road starts at this point in the season. Pepiot has the numbers and pedigree to command market support, but he hasn’t displayed the same potential this season despite the similar statistical pace to 2024. Coming off seven shutout innings last weekend, Pepiot may be at his peak valuation right now and closer to average returns can be expected the rest of the way.
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