April Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

With most starters now making at least five starts in the 2025 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four American League starters may be worth avoiding in upcoming starting efforts.  

Tyler Mahle – Texas Rangers

After back-to-back seasons limited by injury, Mahle has emerged a strong option in the Texas rotation so far, already 3-0 in six starts with a 1.14 ERA. Mahle has pitched well but he has a .217 BABIP and an over 87 percent strand rate so far this season. Mahle posted big strikeout counts in 2020 and 2021 with Cincinnati, but he hasn’t come close to matching that level since, including a 7.4 K/9 so far this season. Mahle has made four of his six starts at home while his road starts were in favorable pitching conditions in San Francisco and early April in Chicago. Mahle is only 30 and a second life to his career is possible but he isn’t likely to maintain this pace as his walk rate has been elevated and he has so far not allowed a single home run yet this season. 

Max Fried – New York Yankees

Max Fried, the 31-year-old left-hander, was a big free agent score for the Yankees after eight seasons pitching for Atlanta. With the numerous injuries on the New York pitching staff, the importance of the pick-up has been magnified and Fried has delivered with a 5-0 start and a 1.43 ERA. Fried’s K/9 of just 7.9 is the lowest he has had since his short rookie stint in 2017. Fried has always kept walks and home runs to a minimum but doing so at Yankee Stadium will be more challenging. Fried’s groundball rate so far in 2025 is the lowest of his career as well. Fried has drawn a favorable schedule of opposing offenses so far this season and while he will remain an upper level starter, the current bullpen questions for New York may leave Fried’s pricing a bit steep moving forward with his impressive win count.

Tyler Anderson – Los Angeles Angels

Starting strong in April is nothing new for Anderson, who had a great start to his 2024 season, posting a 2.23 ERA in his first six starts. Anderson wound up with a 3.81 ERA for the season going 10-15 in his decisions and his career K/9 is just 7.5 as he has never been a great swing-and-miss generator. This season Anderson is 2-0 in five starts with a 2.60 ERA, but his FIP is 5.23. He has allowed 12 walks and five home runs in five starts but has benefited from an ultra-low .167 BABIP while stranding almost 96 percent of his baserunners. After showing some life in the first two weeks of the season the Angels are back in the AL West basement already and Anderson’s numbers are likely to swell as the sample size grows as well. 

Hayden Wesneski – Houston Astros

A sixth round pick by the Yankees in 2019, Wesneski has pitched for the Cubs the past three seasons with mixed results, primarily as a reliever. For Houston he has pitched 28 innings in 2025 all in a starting role and his ERA has been solid at 3.86, While it is a small sample, Wesneski has a career HR/9 of nearly 1.7 and he has allowed six home runs in five starts this season. After allowing just five hits in his first two starts with Houston, Wesneski has allowed 19 hits in his last three starts despite keeping the scoring in check. His .240 BABIP is likely to climb over time and he has only had a 35 percent groundball rate this season as home runs are going to be a risk for Wesneski, particularly when he starts to face more challenging road venues.