Sepp Straka held off Shane Lowry and Justin Thomas as the latter two had late collapses allowing Straka to capture the Truist Championship, his second PGA Tour title of the season. The sixth signature event is in the books and we move on to the second major of the season with the PGA Championship coming from Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. We normally would have seen Quail Hollow last week playing host to the Truist Championship but we now get it one week later under more difficult conditions and higher stakes. It last hosted the PGA Championship in 2017 but that was when it was annually contested in August.
Quail Hollow is a par 71 that is being stretched to 7,626 yards this week and will reward the long hitters with Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, and Max Homa being recent winners of the then Wells Fargo Championship. The time change is significant because of the turf as the Bermuda layout will be overseeded with Poa on the greens and Ryegrass on the fairways and rough and this is only the second PGA Championship to be held on overseeded turf. Fairways are narrow so accuracy is also important making Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee an important statistical category. The course features the toughest three-hole closing stretch in the normal rotation known as The Green Mile.
The winning score here in 2017 was -8 from Justin Thomas but again, that was in August with much firmer conditions. We are going to see much softer conditions based on the late spring climate and the course is getting crushed with rain on Monday and into Tuesday. We have seen an average score of just around -14 over the last 10 years and with the course likely being slightly tricked up, we should see a winning score slightly lower than that. In addition to the narrow fairways, there are 61 bunkers throughout that offer protection while seven holes have water in play including those final three. The greens are above average in size but are ranked sixth in GIR and will be extremely fast.
Xander Schauffele looks to defend his championship after winning wire-to-wire but needed a birdie on the 72nd hole to avoid a playoff with Bryson DeChambeau to capture his first major and his first of two last year. It was not a typical major with the winning score -21 but it brought every ounce of excitement as eight players were within three strokes entering Sunday and we will see a much tougher test this week. Only seven players have hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy in back-to-back years so history is not on his side but Schauffele has finished runner-up here twice which came in 2023 and 2024.
The field of 156 is the strongest and deepest we have seen in 2025 with 99 of the top 100 in the OWGR teeing it up. Top 70 and ties make the cut which is slightly above the normal top 65 and ties at most events. The increase is even more beneficial to players considering 20 of the 156 are club professionals and they very rarely make the cut so the percentage of making the cut this week is +/- 50 percent compared to the typical +/- 41 percent. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +425 followed closely by Rory McIlroy at +500 while the remaining chalk under +3000 are Bryson Dechambeau (+950), Jon Rahm (+1800), Schauffele (+2200), Justin Thomas (+2200), Colin Morikawa (+2500) and Ludvig Aberg (+2800).
Top four key categories this week in order:
Driving DistanceStrokes Gained: Off-The-TeeStrokes Gained: ApproachProximity Gained 200+ Yards
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Justin ThomasOdds: Win 2,200 ~ Top Five 360 ~ Top Ten 170Payout: Win 11,000.00 ~ Top Five 900.00 ~ Top Ten 425.00
Thomas is trending at the right time. In his last two starts, he has a win at the RBC Heritage and a T2 in at the Truist Championship last week and these come after a pair of runner-ups and another pair of top tens in his first eight starts. He is ranked ninth in SG: Tee-To-Green and seventh in SG: Approach and right now his issue is with the driver and even that is not too bad. The main reason for his success this season is on the greens as he has gained strokes putting in nine of 11 starts and is ranked No. 23 in SG: Putting after coming in at No. 124 last season. And of course he won his first major here in 2017 and has a pair of top 20s at Quail Hollow since then.
Ludvig AbergOdds: Win 2,800 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 200Payout: Win 14,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 500.00
Two things of concern for Aberg is that first, he has not played well of late with a pair of missed cuts and a T54 and T60 over his last five starts and second, he has never played Quail Hollow. In regards to his recent form, the outlier is a T7 at The Masters so that is a big plus and as far as not playing here, his driver is good enough to not even make it a concern. He is ranked No. 10 in SG: Off-The-Tee and the only time he was in the negative was at Pebble Beach when he had to WD because of the flu. The putter has been the other concern but he has a win and another pair of top sevens when he was barely in the positive in strokes gained so if the flat stick gets going, he will be right there Sunday.
Wyndham ClarkOdds: Win 9,000 ~ Top Five 1,400 ~ Top Ten 600Payout: Win 45,000.00 ~ Top Five 3,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,500.00
The recent results are not there for Clark but they have not been horrible and his game is ideal for this venue. His approach game has let him down the most this season but he is ranked ninth over the last two years in GIR on long courses and the long iron play will be important here. He is one of the longest drivers on tour so he can tame a course like this and we have seen it once already as he won at Quail Hollow in 2023. Clark is a major winner so he knows what it takes and when his putter gets hot, he sometimes looks unbeatable and his best finish this season, a T5 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he was +1.06 in SG: Putting as the rest of his game was already in place.
Taylor PendrithOdds: Win 15,000 ~ Top Five 2,000 ~ Top Ten 850Payout: Win 75,000.00 ~ Top Five 5,000.00 ~ Top Ten 2,125.00
Pendrith has the game to compete here with his length off the tee and he proved that last year with a T10 at the Wells Fargo, the week right after his first PGA Tour win at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He is ranked fifth in SG: Off-The-Tee so he will let it fly and put himself in position with an above average approach game where he has gained strokes in nine of 13 starts. It will come down to putting and there is good news in that regard. He has gained strokes putting in three of his last six starts which may not be saying much but he did so only once in his first seven starts and that one positive was a miniscule +0.14.
Niklas NorgaardOdds: Win 25,000 ~ Top Five 3,000 ~ Top Ten 1,200Payout: Win 125,000.00 ~ Top Five 7,500.00 ~ Top Ten 3,000.00
Norgaard is the massive longshot we are backing as he is being overlooked and for good reason as after a decent run in February and March, he missed four straight cuts but has responded with a T33 at the Byron Nelson and then a T5 last week at the Myrtle Beach Classic. His short game and putting have made the difference of late and couple that with being the second longest driver of the ball on tour, he could be a big surprise to hang around. He possesses a win on the DP World Tour in a strong field at the Betfred British Masters and while a win here is unlikely, we love the form and odds where anything can happen and can still sneak onto the first page.
Results through The Truist Championship (13 Tournaments):
Win: -11,000Top Five: -125Top Ten: -825Top 20 Masters: -90
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