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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 11/06/26

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 06, 2026

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action. Week 10 in NCAAF college football continues with five games between FBS opponents. SMU hosts Virginia Tech on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 56.5. East Carolina plays at home against South Florida on ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 39.5. Nebraska travels on the road to play Illinois on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. New Mexico plays at Nevada on the CBS Sports Network at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 38.5. Arizona is at home to face TCU on ESPN at 10:15 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket in the NBA Cup. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics are on the road in Charlotte to challenge the Hornets as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 210.5. The Atlanta Hawks host the Washington Wizards as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 230.5. The Philadelphia 76ers visit Cleveland to play the Cavaliers on Amazon Prime Video at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. Four NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Memphis against the Grizzlies as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 225.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the road in New Orleans to battle the Grizzlies as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. The Toronto Raptors travel to Miami to play the Heat as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230.5. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The San Antonio Spurs play in Sacramento against the Kings as a 15.5-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home to face the Portland Trail Blazers on Amazon Prime Video as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. The Buffalo Sabres host the Columbus Blue Jackets at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Wild play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Calgary Flames are home to take on the Anaheim Ducks as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 72 games involving Division I opponents that tip off at 4:00 p.m. ET. Missouri battles St. Louis on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri, on ESPNU at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 161.5. Connecticut challenges Michigan on a neutral court at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, on TNT at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Kansas hosts Middle Tennessee on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 29.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League begins with one match. Everton plays at home against Coventry City on the USA Network at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NHL Previews and Odds 11/05/26

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 05, 2026

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and NHL action. Week 9 in the National Football League kicks off with one game. The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens on Amazon Prime at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Jaguars won for the fourth time in their previous five games with a 42-7 victory at home against the Indianapolis Colts as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. The Ravens are on a five-game losing streak after a 36-10 loss on the road in Buffalo against the Bills as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Jacksonville is a 10-point road favorite with the total set at 39.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Week 10 in NCAAF college football continues with two games between FBS opponents. UTSA plays on the road to play Florida Atlantic on ESPNU as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 72.5. James Madison is on the road at Southern Mississippi on ESPN2 at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 14.5-point road favorite with a total of 57.5. The National Basketball Association has two games on its docket. The Phoenix Suns host the Orlando Magic at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Miami Heat as a 7.5-point favorite at 10:10 p.m. ET.The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. Nine NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins are at home to take on the Boston Bruins as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars visit Columbus to play the Blue Jackets as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes play in New York against the Islanders as a -166 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Utah Mammoth are on the road in Montreal to take on the Canadiens as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Chicago Blackhawks as a -395 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Rangers play at home to challenge the Philadelphia Flyers as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The New Jersey Devils are at home against the St. Louis Blues as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights visit Detroit to challenge the Red Wings as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers host the Anaheim Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Nashville Predators at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 65 games involving Division I opponents that tip off at 6:00 p.m. ET. Four of these games are on major national television. Vanderbilt is at home against Wake Forest on ESPN2 at 6:00 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5. Two NCAAB games begin at 8:30 p.m. ET. DePaul is at home to face South Florida on truTV as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150.5. Illinois hosts Pennsylvania on FS1 as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 169.5. Arizona plays at home against Cal-Poly SLO on truTV at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 30.5-point favorite with an over/under of 173.5. 

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NFL MVP Race: Allen Leads, but Lawrence Offers the Value

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, Nov 04, 2026

The NFL MVP race is tightening, and the betting board raises a familiar question: Pay the premium for the favorite, or find a contender whose price hasn't caught up with his performance?Josh Allen (+165) leads the conversation, combining Buffalo’s winning ways with his ability to score through the air and on the ground. But several challengers have enough runway to make November and December interesting.All odds are courtesy DraftKings and are subject to change.Brock Purdy (+450) offers the combination of efficient quarterback play and team success that keeps voters interested. San Francisco’s ability to remain among the NFC’s best gives him a platform, although he must distinguish his contributions within a talented offense.Joe Burrow (+475) brings explosive production. His five touchdown passes against Tennessee pushed his season total to 20, including 13 over his past three games. That scoring surge makes him dangerous in this market.Caleb Williams (+500) has accelerated into contention following Chicago’s victory over Seattle. Sustaining that momentum will matter more than one impressive national television performance.Trevor Lawrence (+950) deserves closer inspection because his efficiency puts him firmly in the discussion at a considerably bigger return.Drake Maye (+1500) offers another route into the race if New England keeps climbing, while Patrick Mahomes (+1700) has the experience and playmaking ability to force his way back toward the front.Here is how I would approach the board. THE FAVORITE: Josh Allen (+165) Allen’s case starts with impact. Through seven games, he has produced 11 passing touchdowns and nine rushing scores, giving Buffalo multiple ways to finish possessions without changing who controls the offense.The Bills are 6-1, and their quarterback just threw for 289 passing yards and two touchdown passes in a 36-10 victory over Baltimore. He added another score on the ground, reinforcing how hard it is to measure his production through passing statistics alone. That versatility matters. A defense can cover Buffalo’s receivers and still lose to Allen’s legs. Near the goal line, his rushing threat creates another problem before the snap.The concern is the price. At +165, the implied probability is approximately 37.7% before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin. There is little room for a prolonged slump while other quarterbacks build their cases. Allen deserves favorite status. For a new wager, however, his number demands confidence that Buffalo’s winning pace and his touchdown production will continue through the stretch run. THE LONGSHOT: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+6000) If a receiver is going to crash this quarterback party, he needs a season that makes voters reconsider their usual approach. Smith-Njigba is producing the kind of numbers that can start that conversation.Seattle’s standout has 64 catches for 985 yards and nine touchdowns through eight games. That translates to approximately 2,093 receiving yards over a 17-game season, putting a historic milestone within reach if he maintains his current pace. He added 118 yards and a touchdown against Chicago, continuing to deliver even when Seattle’s overall offense struggled.The obstacle is translating individual brilliance into an MVP argument. Seattle must win enough games to keep his performances relevant in the playoff race, and he must convince voters that his influence exceeds that of the leading quarterbacks.At +6000, the implied probability is approximately 1.6%. That makes this a speculative investment requiring an exceptional finish. The appeal is clear: a potential 2,000-yard receiver with substantial touchdown production. The path remains narrow, but the upside explains the longshot consideration. THE PICK: Trevor Lawrence (+950) Lawrence offers the most appealing combination of current performance and available return among these choices.Through seven games, he has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards, with 17 touchdowns against four interceptions. His 112.6 passer rating and 8.5 yards per attempt show an offense generating meaningful gains without requiring excessive volume. Against Indianapolis, Lawrence needed only 14 attempts to produce 210 yards and three touchdowns. That is the attraction: his efficiency already supports a serious candidacy, even when Jacksonville does not need him throwing throughout the afternoon.The Jaguars are 5-2, giving him a foundation for the team success that typically strengthens an MVP campaign.At +950, the implied probability is approximately 9.5%. My assessment is that his performance merits a stronger chance than that price suggests. He still needs sustained production, more victories and defining performances against quality opponents. Those requirements are realistic enough to justify the wager. Allen is the deserved favorite, but Lawrence is where I would put my money.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and UCL Previews and Odds - 11/04/26

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 04, 2026

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and UCL action. Week 10 in NCAAF college football continues with three games between FBS opponents. Two NCAAF games kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Massachusetts hosts Ball State on ESPNU as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 49.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Toledo travels on the road to play Sacramento State on the CBS Sports Network as a 25.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Eastern Michigan takes on Central Michigan on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, on ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The National Basketball Association has 14 games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Hawks play on the road against the Washington Wizards as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The Detroit Pistons play at home against the Philadelphia 76ers on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 218.5.     Five NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics are at home to face the Milwaukee Bucks as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Charlotte Hornets are on the road in Brooklyn to battle the Nets as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 213.5. The New York Knicks host the Chicago Bulls as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 233.5. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 234.5. The Memphis Grizzlies are at home to challenge the Indiana Pacers as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 228.5. The Houston Rockets play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 8:40 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 220.5. Two NBA games start at 9:10 p.m. ET. The Portland Trail Blazers visit  Phoenix to face the Suns as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 227.5. The Denver Nuggets are at home to take on the Toronto Raptors as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The San Antonio Spurs host the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 227.5.  The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Sacramento to play the Kings at 10:10 p.m. ET as an 11.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 234.5. The Miami Heat play in Los Angeles against the Clippers at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 233.5. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:37 p.m. ET. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Chicago Blackhawks on TNT as a -250 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Buffalo Sabres are at home to battle the Ottawa Senators as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Kings host the San Jose Sharks on TNT as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Seattle Kraken play at home against the Calgary Flames as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 10 games involving Division I opponents that tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET. None of these games are on major national television.Matchday 3 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with nine league phase matches. Two games start at 12:45 p.m. ET. Real Madrid are on the road at AEK Athens as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Liverpool visits Fenerbahce as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5.  Seven matches conclude the UCL card at 3 p.m. ET. Borussia Dortmund are at home against Real Betis as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. FC Porto hosts Napoli as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Como travels on the road to Lens as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. PSV Eindhoven plays at home against Club Brugge as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Manchester City plays on the road at RB Leipzig as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Arsenal is on the road at Slavia Prague as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Viking FK is at home to play Sabah FK as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. All nine Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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Five Defining NFL Observations Through Week 8

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026

Eight weeks into the NFL season, the separation between contenders and pretenders remains remarkably thin.Minnesota's perfect start ended in Detroit. Kansas City suffered its second consecutive defeat. Chicago made an emphatic statement on Monday night, and Philadelphia continued a stunning decline that has left the NFC East searching for a credible favorite.Meanwhile, Buffalo and Pittsburgh strengthened their positions in the AFC, Denver showed it can finish against elite competition, and Las Vegas finally found a way to reverse a month of frustration.What stands out isn't simply the number of surprising results. It's how dramatically the league's hierarchy can change when injuries, turnovers and fourth-quarter execution intersect.Teams that appeared invincible two weeks ago suddenly look vulnerable. Others that seemed destined for disappointing seasons are building legitimate momentum.As the calendar turns toward the second half, five developments deserve particular attention.1. CHICAGO'S MONDAY NIGHT STATEMENT REVEALS A THREE-TEAM NFC NORTH BATTLEThe Chicago Bears didn't simply defeat Seattle on Monday night. They demonstrated that their improvement is becoming increasingly sustainable.Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown in the 34-17 victory, and Chicago controlled the game with sustained possessions, disciplined execution and timely defensive pressure.D'Andre Swift scored three rushing touchdowns, while newly acquired defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons immediately strengthened a unit that limited Seattle to 252 total yards and one third-down conversion in 11 attempts.The victory moved Chicago to 6-2, one-half game behind Minnesota in the NFC North.That became particularly significant because Detroit handed the Vikings their first defeat Sunday, winning 19-15 behind Jahmyr Gibbs' 151 rushing yards.The Lions improved to 5-2, leaving three teams separated by one game in losses.Minnesota still possesses one of the NFL's most formidable defenses. Detroit can still control games physically, and Chicago is developing an offensive identity that doesn't require Williams to make extraordinary plays on every possession.The Bears' opening touchdown drive against Seattle consumed 17 plays and 8:32, illustrating the patience and efficiency developing under Ben Johnson.The NFC North might ultimately be decided by which offense best complements its defense.Chicago's Monday performance suggests that race could remain unsettled deep into December.2. THE AFC WEST IS NO LONGER KANSAS CITY'S PERSONAL PROPERTYKansas City's 28-24 loss at Denver represented more than another regular-season defeat.It was the Chiefs' second straight setback and another reminder that their familiar late-game execution formula is no longer producing automatic victories.Denver entered the fourth quarter trailing 24-13, then scored 15 unanswered points to complete the comeback.The Broncos improved to 6-2, moving ahead of the 5-2 Chiefs in the division standings.The significance extends beyond the result.Denver has built a defense that can pressure quarterbacks without sacrificing its overall structure, while Bo Nix continues to gain experience in high-leverage situations.The Broncos aren't simply surviving close games. They're increasingly finding ways to finish them.Kansas City, meanwhile, has scored just 27 points over its past two games after managing only three against Seattle the previous week.The Chiefs have also been outscored 35-3 in the fourth quarters of those defeats, an especially troubling development for a team historically defined by late-game poise.Still, writing off Patrick Mahomes ignores years of evidence showing his ability to recover from difficult stretches.The more reasonable conclusion is that Kansas City's margin for error has narrowed.Denver has earned its place in the division championship conversation, and the Chiefs must now demonstrate that their championship experience can overcome emerging weaknesses in execution.3. THE RAIDERS FINALLY SHOWED RESILIENCE, BUT THE DEFENSE REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERNFor the first time in more than a month, the Raiders left the field with tangible evidence their season might still be salvageable.Las Vegas rallied from a 30-14 deficit to defeat the Jets 38-33, snapping a four-game losing streak and improving to 4-4.Kirk Cousins threw three touchdown passes, Brock Bowers caught seven passes for 92 yards and two scores, and Dylan Laube delivered a momentum-changing 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.The Raiders also benefited from Jeremy Chinn's end-zone interception, which preserved the victory.The comeback demonstrated an encouraging change in temperament.Instead of letting another early deficit become a complete collapse, Las Vegas responded offensively and generated the defensive stop needed to finish.But the performance also exposed familiar concerns.The Jets accumulated 439 total yards, with Braelon Allen rushing for 147 yards and Adonai Mitchell producing 142 receiving yards.Las Vegas cannot reasonably expect to surrender that much production every week and consistently emerge victorious.The Raiders' offense showed enough explosiveness to suggest the team can compete when Cousins receives adequate protection and Bowers is involved.The next challenge is establishing complementary football.At 4-4, Las Vegas remains within reach of the AFC playoff picture, but its margin for error is limited.A victory over the Jets provided relief. The upcoming matchup against San Francisco will provide a much clearer measurement of progress.4. QUARTERBACK HEALTH IS BECOMING THE AFC'S MOST IMPORTANT VARIABLEThe AFC playoff picture changed dramatically Sunday, and Baltimore's quarterback situation might ultimately prove more consequential than any single result.Lamar Jackson exited on the opening play against Buffalo with a hand injury, and the Ravens never recovered in a 36-10 defeat.Backup Tyler Huntley also departed injured, forcing rookie Joe Fagnano into action.Baltimore fell to 4-4, a particularly uncomfortable position in an AFC North where Pittsburgh is 6-2 and Cincinnati is 5-2.The Ravens' offensive identity depends heavily on Jackson's ability to extend plays, challenge defenses with his legs and create opportunities outside conventional passing situations.Without him, the entire structure changes.Buffalo capitalized with aggressive defensive pressure, while Josh Allen threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns as the Bills improved to 6-1.The result strengthened Buffalo's standing among AFC contenders, although defeating an opponent forced into emergency quarterback adjustments requires some perspective.The larger lesson is that quarterback availability increasingly shapes the conference's competitive balance.Cincinnati has benefited from Joe Burrow's explosive production, including five touchdown passes against Tennessee, while Kansas City remains heavily dependent on Patrick Mahomes.Teams with established quarterback stability possess an enormous advantage as the season moves toward its most demanding stretch.For Baltimore, the immediate priority isn't playoff positioning. It's figuring out how to stay competitive while its quarterback situation remains unresolved.5. THE NFC EAST IS PROVING THAT A DIVISION RACE DOESN'T REQUIRE A DOMINANT TEAMPerhaps no division better illustrates the NFL's unpredictable nature than the NFC East.The Giants entered their bye week at 4-2-1 and emerged with a stronger grip on first place without playing a snap.Dallas squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter advantage against Arizona and lost 33-30 in overtime, dropping to 3-5.Philadelphia suffered its sixth consecutive defeat, falling 27-10 at Washington and slipping to 2-6.The Commanders improved to 2-5-1, but injuries and inconsistent offense remain major obstacles.New York's advantage is increasingly built around stability rather than dominance.The Giants have navigated injuries, quarterback changes and close games while avoiding the prolonged losing streaks that have damaged their division rivals.Philadelphia's offensive struggles without Jalen Hurts have become particularly costly, and Tanner McKee hasn't been able to reverse the team's slide.Dallas continues to struggle to finish games, and Washington hasn't established the consistency needed to become a serious division threat.The remarkable part is that none of these teams is completely removed from the conversation.With multiple divisional meetings remaining, the standings could still change quickly.But the Giants now control their immediate opportunity.Their upcoming games against Philadelphia and Washington offer a chance to create meaningful separation.The NFC East might not produce one of the league's most impressive division champions.It could, however, produce one of its most fascinating races.

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The Minnesota Vikings Will Miss the Playoffs

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026

The Vikings lost to Detroit yesterday. They were the last undefeated team in the NFL. The 1972 Miami Dolphins cracked open another bottle of champagne.Unlike the playoffs, defense will only get you so far in the regular season.NFL teams need more offense than defense to even make the playoffs. The Vikings have a very good defense but will Kyler Murray be able to carry his part and starting adding points to help out the defense??We say NO. If fact, they have might not even make the playoffs. I project they finish 9-8. Their remaining schedule is brutal. Unless your team can average at least 28 points per game, don’t expect any favors in the win/loss column.The Minnesota Vikings average 20.8 points per game (PPG) scored during the 2026 NFL season, while allowing 12.3 points per game (the fewest in the NFL).Here’s the current odds of Minnesota winning the NFC-NorthThe Vikings' odds to win the NFC North range from +185 to +220 at major sportsbooks following their Week 8 loss to the Detroit Lions. They’re not even the favorites after Sunday’s loss to Detroit.Had the Las Vegas Raiders lost to the NY Jets yesterday, that would have made a case for the Vikings reaching out to reunite Kirk Cousins with his former team. Believe me, the Minnesota fans would love this move before the trade deadline. (And then the Raiders #1 selection QB Mendoza could get his feet wet and gear toward next season.).Remaining 2026 Regular Season ScheduleWeek 9: vs. Buffalo Bills Monday,LoseWeek 10: at Green Bay PackersLoseWeek 11: at San Francisco 49ersLoseWeek 12: vs. Atlanta FalconsWinWeek 13: vs. Carolina PanthersToss upWeek 14: at New England PatriotsLoseWeek 15: vs. Detroit LionsLoseWeek 16: vs. WashingtonWinWeek 17: at New York JetsWinWeek 18: vs. Chicago BearsLose

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NCAAF, UCL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 11/03/26

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026

The Tuesday sports card features NCAAF, NHL, NCAAB, and UCL action. Week 10 in NCAAF college football kicks off with two games between FBS opponents. Ohio travels on the road to play Akron on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 14-point road favorite with the total set at 51.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Miami (OH) hosts Buffalo on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. Eight NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Utah Mammoth play in Toronto against the Maple Leafs as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Detroit Red Wings as a -250 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Washington Capitals are at home to take on the Dallas Stars as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Montreal Canadiens host the Winnipeg Jets as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The New York Rangers play at home against the St. Louis Blues as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are on the road in Pittsburgh to face the Penguins as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Colorado Avalanche visit Columbus to challenge the Blue Jackets as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Minnesota Wild play in Philadelphia against the Flyers as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The New Jersey Devils are at home to battle the Edmonton Oilers at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are on the road in Nashville to play the Predators at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Anaheim Ducks travel to Vancouver to face the Canucks at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5.  The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 29 games involving Division I opponents that tip off at 6:00 p.m. ET. None of these games are on major national television.Matchday 3 in the UEFA Champions League begins with nine league phase matches. Two games start at 12:45 p.m. ET. Galatasaray hosts VfB Stuttgart as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Sporting Lisbon plays at Shakhtar Donetsk as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Seven matches conclude the UCL card at 3 p.m. ET. Bayern Munich is on the road at Atletico Madrid as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Barcelona plays at home against Aston Villa as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 4.5. Bodo/Glimt is at home to take on Lille as a -0.5 goal-line favorite on the CBS Sports Network with an over/under of 3.5. Inter Milan visits Feyenoord Rotterdam as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. LASK Linz hosts Slovan Bratislava as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Manchester United plays at home against AS Roma as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Paris Saint-Germain plays at Villarreal as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. All nine Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 11/02/26

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Nov 02, 2026

The Monday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action. Week 9 in the NFL concludes with one game. The Seattle Seahawks host the Chicago Bears on ESPN and the ESPN2 Manningcast at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Seahawks ended a two-game losing streak with a 20-3 win at home against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. The Bears have won four of their previous five games after a 30-24 win against New England as a 2.5-point favorite on October 22nd. Seattle is a 3-point favorite with the total set at 46.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Basketball Association has 15 games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. Five NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The New York Knicks are at home to face the Brooklyn Nets as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The Philadelphia 76ers host the Chicago Bulls as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 239.5. The Atlanta Hawks travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 232.5. The Charlotte Hornets play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 210.5. The Orlando Magic are at home to battle the Washington Wizards as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 224.5. Three NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Dallas Mavericks host the Sacramento Kings as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 234.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Milwaukee Bucks as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 233.5. The Memphis Grizzlies are at home to challenge the New Orleans Pelicans as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. Two NBA games begin at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Houston Rockets host the Boston Celtics as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 218.5. The San Antonio Spurs play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The Denver Nuggets are at home to face the Portland Trail Blazers at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 227.5. Three games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Miami Heat as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 227.5. The Toronto Raptors play in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 220.5. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Florida Panthers are at home to face the Detroit Red Wings as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are on the road in Boston to battle the Bruins as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Colorado Avalanche visit Chicago to challenge the Blackhawks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The San Jose Sharks host the Calgary Flames at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 118 games involving Division I opponents that tips off at 6:00 a.m. Two NCAAB games are featured on TNT in the Hall of Fame Classic Series at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Gonzaga faces Purdue at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 153.5. UCLA plays Arizona at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 11/01/26

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 01, 2026

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action. Week 8 in the NFL continues with 12 games. Eight NFL games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cleveland Browns as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 38.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Detroit Lions play at home against the Minnesota Vikings as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home to face the Atlanta Falcons as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. The Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play at home against the Atlanta Falcons as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. The Buffalo Bills are at home to take on the Baltimore Ravens as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 54.5. The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts as a 10-point favorite with a total of 46.5. The Dallas Cowboys play at home against the Arizona Cardinals as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 54.5. The New York Jets are at home to battle the Las Vegas Raiders as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 46.5. The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tennessee Titans as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. Three NFL games start in the second afternoon window. The Los Angeles Rams are the technical home team against the Los Angeles Chargers in their shared home, SoFi Stadium, at 4:05 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Two more NFL games start at 4:25 p.m. ET. The New England Patriots travel to Miami to challenge the Dolphins as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 43.5.  The Kansas City Chiefs play in Denver against the Broncos as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 40.5.  Sunday Night Football on NBC features the Washington Commanders hosting the Philadelphia Eagles at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Commanders are a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 40.5. The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. The Boston Celtics are on the road in Orlando to take on the Magic at 3:40 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. The Indiana Pacers play at home against the Brooklyn Nets at 5:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231.5. The Golden State Warriors are at home to face the Los Angeles Clippers at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 219.5. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Toronto Raptors at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the Winnipeg Jets at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Washington Capitals are at home to challenge the Minnesota Wild at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Utah Mammoth visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Rangers host the Edmonton Oilers at 6:07 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Ottawa Senators play in Anaheim against the Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball season tips off with three games on its schedule. Villanova takes on Notre Dame on Fox at 6:30 a.m. ET at the Palazzo dello Sport in Rome, Italy, as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5.  Matchweek 9 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Arsenal is on the road to take on Liverpool on Peacock at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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NCAA Basketball Futures Wager: Duke to Win the 2027 National Championship

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Nov 01, 2026

The NCAA Basketball season tips off today, and I look to repeat the Futures success I had last season, when I tabbed Michigan at 20-1 odds in the Preseason to win the Title.  I've had unparalled success on my NCAA Basketball Futures predictions, as I also cashed Baylor at 12-1 odds in 2021 and Virginia at 22-1 odds in 2019, for 3 Longshot Winning Tickets of the last 7 Championships.Let's take a look at the odds (courtesy of DraftKings) of the leading contenders:Florida +600Duke +620Connecticut +1100Illinois +1250Michigan +1550Texas +1600Michigan State +1700Louisville +2000Arkansas +2100Tennessee +2150Arizona +2300St. John's +2600Kansas +2700Houston +2800Texas Tech +3100Gonzaga +3200Virginia +3500Kentucky +3500North Carolina +4000Alabama +4000USC +4500LSU +4500Miami-Fla +5000Indiana +5000Iowa State +5400Missouri +5700Purdue +5800Iowa +6000UCLA +6200BYU +7000This season, I'm going to go with a team that's suffered its share of heartbreak in the last few March Madnesses.  Last season, Duke was right there with Michigan and Arizona as a co-favorite to win the title.  Indeed, Duke actually defeated Michigan, 68-63, as a 3-point underdog in February on a neutral court in Washington, DC.  But in the Elite Eight round, Duke stunningly lost to Connecticut, 73-72, when it blew a 19-point first half lead.  The worst part of the loss was that Cayden Boozer committed a needless turnover while trying to play keep-away to prevent the Huskies from fouling, and UConn's Braylon Mullins swished a 35-foot Hail Mary with 0.4 seconds left to knock out the Blue Devils.  Likewise, the previous season, Duke was up by 14 with eight minutes left, and held a six-point lead with 1:14 remaining in the semi-final game, before getting overtaken by the Houston Cougars, 70-67.  Those two seasons, Duke featured the best (Cooper Flagg) or one of the best (Cameron Boozer) players in the country.  This season, there's no superstar, but rather a deep and balanced roster, and I look for Jon Scheyer's men to (finally) go all the way, and give Scheyer his first National Title as head coach.  I will take them at +620 odds (at DraftKings).Duke has a great mix of returning talent and incoming high school stars, as Scheyer landed the #1-ranked recruiting class.  Boozer, a sophomore, returns, and will no doubt be highly motivated to redeem himself after last year's costly turnover.  Other returnees include senior guard, Caleb Foster, and junior center, Patrick Ngongba.  And Duke snagged former Wisconsin Badger star, John Blackwell, via the transfer portal.  The incoming freshmen include Cameron Williams, Bryson Howard, Deron Rippey Jr., and Joaquim (Jojo) Boumtje-Boumtje.  Blackwell will be a primary scorer, and was named to the preseason All-ACC First Team, as was center Ngongba II, who averaged 10.1 ppg and 5.8 rpg last season.  Boumtje-Boumtje was selected for the preseason All-ACC Second Team.  Duke was 3-0 in its preseason exhibitions, including a 90-84 road win at #17 Kansas, and an impressive 103-64 blowout of #8 Tennessee at Cameron Indoor Stadium.I love playing on teams to win a Championship that had a major disappointment the previous season, and look for Duke's recent losses in March Madness to serve as fuel for this 2026-27 campaign.  Take Duke at +620 odds (DraftKings).Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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College Football 2026-27 Preview, Part 4 -- 138 Questions and Thoughts for 138 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Oct 31, 2026

For the 16th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: After two previous reasonable hires, Mike MacIntyre and Butch Davis, who both had success revitalizing Power Five conference programs, the FIU administration went in a different direction by hiring former Florida A&M head coach Willie Simmons last year. In six seasons there, he posted a 66-24 record. He had posted a winning season in all eight of his years as a head coach. After serving as the running backs coach at Duke last year, Simmons returns to Florida, where he knows the high school ranks very well after his six years leading an HBCU program in the state. After leading the Golden Panthers to a 7-6 record last season (and making him nine-of-nine with winning seasons as a head coach), Simmons seems to be an inspired choice. He consistently got his football team to play hard for him last year. They ended the regular season on a four-game winning streak before getting beat by UTSA 57-20 in the First Responder Bowl. FIU finished 5-3 in Conference USA play — and they ranked second in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +42 net Yards-Per-Game. It was their first winning season since 2018 and first bowl game appearance since 2019. But a closer look at the numbers suggests it was too often feast-or-famine for this team last season. Using the metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, they exceeded his SP+ game projections by more than +10.0 or more points in six of their games — but they underachieved those SP+ projections by -12.0 or more points four times. Those results suggested he was able to coach up the team against most opponents, but when the talent difference was a bridge too far, the Golden Panthers got exposed. Simmons is trying to address this through his commitment to high school recruiting. But only six starters are back from last season, so he had to dip into the transfer portal. The starting quarterback appears to be former Appalachian State and Iowa State quarterback J.J. Kohl, who had six starts and played in eight games last year for the Mountaineers. The defense is a bigger lift. They ranked 103rd in the nation last season by surrendering 29.8 Points-Per-Game last year — and they gave up at least 34 points in five of their games. They have ranked 120th or worse in the SP+ defensive rankings in four of their last five seasons. Seven of the top 14 tacklers are back, but only three of the starters. Simmons hit the transfer portal by adding five defensive tackles and two linebackers into the mix. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: The Golden Eagles finished 7-6 last season after losing to Western Kentucky in the New Orleans Bowl by a 27-16 score — but that history is almost purely tangential to what this team will be this year. Charles Huff made Southern Mississippi Marshall Southwest last year when he left the Thundering Herd and brought more than 25 players and much of the coaching staff over from Marshall. Now Huff took his traveling circus to Memphis this year with many of the players with him. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson was tapped as the interim head coach for the bowl game and now takes over as the head coach. He previously was the head coach at Utah State after overseeing an Arkansas State program that went 38-18 in the Sun Belt Conference under his tenure. But only one starter returns on offense and just one of their top 21 tacklers on defense from the previous season. Anderson is completely reliant on the transfer portal in what is the most inexperienced FBS program in the nation. The incoming players consist of FCS and Division II players with experience, along with FBS players with limited previous playing time. Anderson is the fourth head coach for this program in the last three seasons. It bears noting that he has only led one team to a winning season in his last four years as a head coach — and he lost his job at Utah State amid allegations of sexual misconduct and domestic violence. His promotion seems more a matter of convenience for the program than his competency and professionalism as of 2026. TROY: The Trojans began last season by losing two of their first three games — and with a 5-10 record under second-year head coach Gerad Parker, things were beginning to look grim. But Troy rallied by winning six of their eight games in Sun Belt Conference play to win the West Division and earn the right to play in the SBC Championship Game. They only trailed James Madison on the road by a 17-14 score with five minutes left before the Dukes scored two late touchdowns to pull away with a 31-14 victory. After a 17-13 loss against Jacksonville State in the Salute to Veterans Bowl, the Trojans finished the season with an 8-6 record. Only six starters are back from that squad, but there are plenty of players who got playing time last season who will be asked to step up into bigger roles. The strength of the team is their defense under third-year defensive coordinator Dontae Wright, which held their opponents to 23.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Defensive end Donnie Smith is back after registering 11 sacks despite only playing part-time, which was good enough to earn him first-team All-Sun Belt Conference team honors. This unit lost eight of their top nine tacklers and just six of the 19 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return. Parker added transfers from Arkansas, Tennessee, and two players from Boston College, along with several junior college and Division II programs. On the other side of the ball, sixth-year quarterback Will “Goose” Crowder is back after missing six games last year. Staying healthy has been an issue after Crowder missed eight games to injury two years ago, but senior Tucker Kilcrease also returns after leading Troy to a 5-2 record in his seven starts last season. The team lost its top six receivers to either graduation or the transfer portal, leaving Parker to lean heavily on junior college transfers to fortify the ranks. Overall, 11 of the 24 players on offense who got starts last season are back. The offensive line has six players back who started games last year, and Parker brought in transfers from FBS programs. After ranking just 121st in the nation last season by generating 307.2 Yards-Per-Game, Parker tapped Tarleton State offensive coordinator Adam Austin to install his version of the “veer and shoot” offense that produced the highest-scoring offense in the FCS last season. Originally designed by former Baylor head coach Kenny Briles, this up-tempo scheme incorporates wide receiver splits and RPOs to spread the field both vertically and horizontally. Best of luck — Frank.

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Game Theory, Poker, and the Power of Leverage: The Next Evolution of The Analytics

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Oct 31, 2026

It is telling that this current wave of fourth down aggressiveness, apparently coming from the secret Big Book of Analytics that was published around ten years ago, is so trusted explicitly by too many pundits without ever reading or scrutinizing the evidence. We live in interesting times when it comes to when we are comfortable putting faith in authority. Many of these folks thought it prudent to “do their own research” when it comes to attempting to discern the science backing the use of vaccinations for public health. But if Ben Johnson is forgoing gimme field goals for going for it on fourth down, these same guys (yes, mostly guys) too often just shrug and conclude: “that’s what the people who claim to be authorities tell us what the math says!”I will leave the question unanswered as to why there is a certain type of person who considers “doing my own research” as appropriate in some instances yet blindly trusts the data-driven conclusions of others in other situations. I have plenty of thoughts that transcend the sports arena. However, I have a dream where this current era of football color commentators cosplaying as head coaches who think anyone cares what their random opinion regarding how they would handle a game management situation would be. The audience will no longer be subjected to these “experts” spreading the gossip regarding what they heard someone read when getting hold of one of the rare copies of the Big Book of The Analytics that actually provides the data and methodologies regarding the formulas that result in 50.1% projections being deemed: “The Analytics say GO FOR IT.” Apparently, the Marxist critiques regarding the profit motive in the pharmaceutical industry and vaccines do not extend to dudes trying to sell books (or getting social media likes) about how they would handle the football game management circumstances of the moment if they had control of the console in the Madden game. No, ESPN/Disney and The Athletic are public interest projects, unconcerned with profits. Greed is bad when it is professional golfers doing the LIV Tour, and sports washing is something that, definitely, only countries run by brown people conduct. Whether it’s challenging the assumptions of vaccine research, playing stenographer regarding what the agreed-upon Smart People say about how to manage football games, lecturing millionaire athletes about their professional decisions, or just asking questions about countries other than the United States attempting to monetize sporting events, what is most important is appreciating just how smart the messenger of these “insights” is. Now I’m even doing it. Look what you made me do, Greg Olsen! Did your Bachelor of Arts in Criminology at the University of Miami (FL, not Ohio) include reading some Foucault — or was that stuff cancelled along with a section on Dunning-Kruger?This is a silly period of time where a field of economically motivated folks pretend they invented the field of statistics and quantitative methodology. Qualitative methodology will make a comeback, although it will be a revolution not led by former professional athletes, even the ones who got through three years of majoring in American Studies at schools with great science departments across the quad, like at California-Berkeley. Rant over (I do have a word count threshold to meet …). This current wave of The Analytics will improve drastically when someone finally begins to borrow the logic of the “analytics” in another activity that involves a mix of mathematical principles and human emotion: poker. Doyle Brunson’s Super/System book, first published in 1978, details the advantage poker players seize from taking advantage of leverage by making big bets that force opponents to make difficult decisions (especially when all the opponent’s chips are at stake). This idea of leverage applies to football when teams have the opportunity to increase their lead by another scoring possession. My argument is that football coaches should settle for field goals more often rather than going for it on fourth down when the additional three points change the scoring possession lead/deficit. For example, taking a 10-point lead with a chip-shot field goal is probably a better choice than risking a fourth down to keep a potential scoring touchdown opportunity alive — and if you don’t believe me, then watch one game where a Kirk Ferentz-coached Iowa takes on the role of the underdog and what happens when they are down only one scoring possession versus being down multiple scoring possessions. Or ask Michigan. A scoreboard lead by more than one possession instills additional pressure on the opponent — and that may trigger more mistakes by them. And, by the way, the head coach may think their fourth down probability is roughly a 50% probability assessment — but that does not mean every play call design inherently enjoys that 50% risk. When fourth-and-one at the opponent’s goal line with a 38-year-old immobile quarterback, a play design using shotgun with four wide receivers with a few fade routes and inside slants in a crowded end zone is probably far away from a 50% proposition. Ordering an extra-large Diet Coke does not amplify the “dietness” of the soda. And, by the way to this by the way, more consideration should be given to the momentum swing gifted to the team that successfully stops this fourth down attempt. The pure analytics folks do not believe in momentum because they understand that every statistical moment roughly being the same being essential for the sample size of their data being valid for the question they are asking. Most of the pundits on TV invoking the Big Book of Analytics do not know this. Probably most of these “experts” believe in momentum. Poker players certainly believe in momentum. The description of a poker player going on “tilt” is simply suggesting the player is experiencing negative momentum. Golfers have a similar concept when they describe players who have the “yips.” The pure analytics folks don’t believe in momentum, as they argue these concepts of being on tilt or the yips are simply a rationalization to describe ordinary events. While talk of momentum is certainly overused by sports talking heads, that does not mean the concept does not exist — and recent studies about flow state are providing evidence that when Michael Jordan gets into the zone and cannot miss a basketball shot, it’s not simply redescribing a great basketball player doing great basketball things. If you have ever had the yips or gone on tilt playing poker (or making social media posts) — or maybe even felt something different in your body while nailing six 3-pointers in an intramural game despite being a mediocre basketball player, then you probably have a different conclusion about whether or not momentum is real. The Analytics will be more helpful in making in-game decisions when the formulas that require the rejection of the concept of momentum are finally rejected.The presumed monolith of “The Analytics” is what I have been critiquing for over a decade. To be clear, I am not critiquing the importance of statistics or quantitative methodology. I use analytics every day when handicapping football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, golf, horse racing, boxing/MMA, and any other sport I have dabbled in. Statistics have existed since mathematics was invented. As always, there are revealing statistics and inconsequential statistics. Calling your search engine “artificial intelligence” does not fiat that the machine is doing its own thinking, independent of its programming code.   “The Analytics” was always a branding exercise. What should not have been invented when the old wine came in new bottles was the importance of assessing the statistics as evidence to a conclusion. My critique of Ben Johnson is not just that he might have the wrong numbers; it is that he seems to fail to realize that the statistics are nuanced rather than obvious answers. Head coaches like John Harbaugh seem to have a better understanding of this, given his comments in the past where he mentions assessing the circumstances of the moment. In academia, that is called qualitative analysis. Most advanced degree programs in these areas require specific classes in both qualitative and quantitative analysis to better understand how these modes of reasoning interrelate. Of course, I am not suggesting that color commentators get an actual Master’s degree before opining on a particular subject that moves outside the Xs and Os of their sport of “expertise.” But imagine the idyllic moment of silence that would produce for the rest of us! There are plenty of very good poker players who have a sophisticated view regarding what statistics are and are not saying without getting the diploma. Doyle Brunson never studied Game Theory. I suspect he would have been a very good teacher on the subject.   Leverage changes the urgency of the statistical moment — and that changes the relevance of much of the sample size data used to justify a particular decision. Poker players understand this. Too many football color commentators are incurious, at best, or simply bandwagoning the latest fad that is considered smart, at worst. We will live in a better world when The Big Book of Analytics is not treated as the capital-T Truth but rather as a component in how to deploy the strategic advantage of Game Theory in sporting events, like Football.  Best of luck - Frank.   

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