Most years, we hear about one or two horses heading into the Derby who appear to be above the rest of the field based on their performances in their prep races. But this year, we have what are being referred to as the "Big 3". Commandment, Further Ado, and Renegade, appear to have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. But while those three have done little wrong leading up to the 152nd edition of the Run for the Roses, it doesn't mean there aren't some others in the field this year that deserve some attention -- and a few that figure to be a pretty big price as well. CONTENDERS Commandment: This son of Into Mischief took the Florida route to the Derby, winning both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby on his way to Louisville. What racing experts like the most about Commandment is that in both of those Stakes victories, he did not have an easy time and had to fight of challengers all the way down the Gulfstream Park stretch in order to secure his wins (and Derby points). Most experts feel that having to gut it out against other quality competitors in a prep race serves a horse well in the field of 20 that is unique to the Derby. Commandment just might be trainer Brad Cox's best chance yet at making it to the Derby Winners Circle (he was awarded the victory in 2021 with Mandaloun but not until a year later when the original victor, Bob Baffert's Medina Spirit, was disqualified due to a drug violation). Further Ado: Another Brad Cox trainee, Further Ado was ultra-impressive in his last Derby prep, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course on April 4, winning by 11 lengths. The glass-half-full argument is that this son of Gun Runner is peaking at the right time and could run an even bigger race come the first Saturday in May. The glass-half-empty argument is that Further Ado's main challenger in the Blue Grass, the ultra-impressive Paladin, had to scratch out of the race due to injury, thereby leaving the field devoid of stakes-quality challengers for Cox's horse, who went off as an odd-on favorite. Skeptics would also point out that Further Ado's biggest races by far both came at Keeneland and although that track is in Kentucky, it is not Churchill Downs. Renegade: When Todd Pletcher had to take 2-year-old Champion Ted Noffey off the Derby trail due to injury, fans of the Hall of Fame trainer were understandably upset. But one thing about Pletcher's huge roster of stakes horses is that you probably don't have to feel sorry for him for long. Along comes this son of Into Mischief who may be even more talented than Ted Noffey (perhaps the two will meet at some point down the road). Renegade took the Arkansas route to the Derby and dominated in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 28. There's a good chance that Renegade will be made the betting favorite for the Derby. All things being equal between the Big 3, consider that Irad Ortiz, thought by many to be the best jockey in North America, had ridden all three -- Commandment, Further Ado, and Renegade. He therefore had his pick of whichever one he wanted to ride in the Derby. He chose Renegade. PRETENDERS Albus: On the same day that Further Ado was blitzing his rivals by 11 lengths in the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial was being run up in New York. And the only thing that will be remembered about this version of the once-storied Derby Prep was the fact that it was the last Wood Memorial to be run at Aqueduct Race Track, which will be closing down after the new Belmont Park opens. The winner that day was Albus, an all-but-unknown -- until then -- son of Yaupon trained by Riley Mott (son of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott). It took Albus three races to break his maiden and the fact that he went off in the Wood at 12-1 should tell you all you need to know about what people thought that day. He earned 100 points and the right to be in the Derby field, but he should probably be 100-1 on the first Saturday in May and he's likely going to be less than half that when the gates open. Don't be sucked in because of what he did in the Wood. Iron Honor: Chad Brown is one of the best trainers in North America and he almost always has an impressive stable of Triple Crown contenders. It looked like he would have one of the big favorites with a horse named Paladin, who was pointed to the Blue Grass on April 4 until a training injury sidelined him. For most trainers, that would be devastating. And although not a nice pill to swallow, Brown's barn is so deep that he brings two other colts to Churchill, including this son of Nyquist. Like Albus, Iron Honor punched his Derby ticket at New York's Aqueduct race track in the Gotham Stakes. But Iron Honor only has three lifetime races, and history tells us that's usually not enough of a foundation going into the Kentucky Derby. The connections of Brown and a well-respected ownership group led by Florida Panthers owner Vinnie Viola might result in Iron Honor getting some attention at the betting windows. You're best to look elsewhere. Wonder Dean/Danon Bourbon/Six Speed - AKA, the foreign invaders: History teaches us a lot, and what it's taught us about the Derby ever since foreign horses were able to win a spot in the starting gate is that it's just too big a hill to climb for them. Yes, there was Forever Young who came within a whisker of becoming the first Japanese horse to win the blanket of roses, but there's also been an almost endless list of others who have tried and not only failed, but did so miserably. All three of these horses looked impressive on foreign soil but having to travel halfway around the world and then line up in a 20-horse starting gate with a 150,000 fans screaming as they run past the grandstand will take its toll just like it has so many times before. Foreign money will likely come pouring in and you may see odds under 10-1 for at least two of these three runners, but let history be your guide and stay away (or use only in exotics). LIVE LONGSHOTS: The Puma: In 2023, these same connections (trainer Gustavo Delgado, owner OGMA Investments, jockey Javier Castellano) won the Derby with their colt, Mage. It's impressive enough that they're back with this son of Essential Quality only three years later. But what's amazing is that The Puma comes into the Derby in almost exactly the same fashion as his predecessor. Like Mage, The Puma's final prep was the Florida Derby, and like Mage he fought valiantly down the stretch, pushing his head in front as they turned for home only to come up short, finishing second to a horse that looks to be one of the favorites four weeks later. And like Mage, The Puma won't be one of the favorites in the race, and in fact he may go off around the morning line of 10-1 (you likely won't get the 15-1 price that Mage was). The Puma has done little wrong in his racing career and in the absence of the Big 3, he would be a short price. Like Mage, he may just be saving his best for the first Saturday in May. Potente: Bob Baffert is probably the most recognizable thoroughbred trainer in America. And he's pretty successful, having won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times. So we're very used to seeing the silver-haired California conditioner with one of the favorites in the race and maybe another horse to go with it. So it was surprising when, going into the last major weekend of qualifying races, we saw that Baffert still didn't have a confirmed runner in this year's Derby. He ran two horses in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4, and didn't win, but did get second with this son of Into Mischief. Potente has been improving with every race and his second place finish in California should set him up well for the first Saturday in May. Unlike most Baffert runners in the Derby, you're going to get a very nice price on Potente. Chief Wallabee: Only six trainers in the history of the Derby have won it in back-to-back years, including the aforementioned Baffert. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will attempt to be number seven when he sends out this son of Constitution. Chief Wallabee had two epic battles in Florida with Brad Cox's Commandment, losing to him in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. But Sovereignty also lost the Florida Derby to a Brad Cox horse as his last tune-up to the Run for the Roses. Mott is known as a patient trainer who gets his horses ready for the big race, often by not cranking them at 100% in their prep. And that's exactly what he did with Sovereignty who ran away from the field a year ago at odds of around 8-1. It would not be a surprise if Chief Wallabee does exactly the same thing (and at a bigger price).Don't miss my Kentucky Derby Winner, as I've cashed 5 of the last 6 Triple Crown races (and 15 of the last 32), including Sovereignty in last year's Derby, and 28-1 Mandaloun across-the-board in 2021.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie
Read more
