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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 04/08/2025

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 08, 2025

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Four NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks as a 4-point favorite with the total set at 225 (all odds from DraftKings). The Indiana Pacers play at home against the Washington Wizards as an 18.5-point favorite with an over/under of 239. The Memphis Grizzlies travel to Charlotte to face the Hornets as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 230.5. The Cleveland Guardians are home against the Chicago Bulls as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 239.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Brooklyn Nets host the New Orleans Pelicans as a 2-point favorite with a total of 214. The Boston Celtics play in New York against the Knicks on TNT as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.Two NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in Milwaukee to take on the Bucks as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 223.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 226. The Golden State Warriors visit Phoenix to battle the Suns on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point road favorite with a total of 227. The Los Angeles Clippers are home against the San Antonio Spurs at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Six NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Penguins host the Chicago Blackhawks as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Montreal Canadiens play at home against the Detroit Red Wings as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators visit the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The New Jersey Devils are home against the Boston Bruins as a -270 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Calgary Flames play at Buffalo against the Sabres as a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Florida to face the Panthers on ESPN as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars host the Vancouver Canucks as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The New York Islanders travel to Nashville to play the Predators as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Utah Hockey Club plays at home against the Seattle Kraken at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche are home against the Vegas Golden Knights on ESPN as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers host the New York Yankees at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets play at home against the Miami Marlins as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Cleveland Guardians are home against the Chicago White Sox as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more MLB games begin at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Washington against the Nationals as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays are home against the Los Angeles Angels at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on TBS at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two more MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play at home against the Texas Rangers as a -162 money-line favorite. The Kansas City Royals are home against the Minnesota Twins as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Colorado to face the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Baltimore Orioles at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games begin at 9:45 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Cincinnati Reds as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners are home against the Houston Astros as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Diego Padres travel to Oakland to face the A’s at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The knockout phase playoffs in the UEFA Champions League continues with the first leg of quarterfinal matches at 3:00 p.m. ET. Arsenal challenges Real Madrid as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Bayern Munich plays at home against Inter Milan as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. 

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The Masters Preview and Picks

by Matt Fargo

Monday, Apr 07, 2025

"A strong mind is one of the key components that separates the great from the good." – Gary Player The most anticipated time of the golf season has arrived as it is the week of The Masters. This is considered by many as the unofficial start of spring and while avid golf fans live for this event, even non-golf enthusiasts know about this epic tournament and what it means. Its beautiful simplicity is what makes it the greatest golf tournament in the world and famed Augusta National plays host to its 89th Masters. Back in the day, hitting the ball a mile would be the greatest asset a player could have and even though the yardage has increased from 6,985 yards in 2001 to 7,555 yards today, making it the 8th longest course on tour, bombing it is no longer the biggest necessity. Unless you have seen Augusta National in person, you cannot appreciate the undulations throughout and the enormous elevation changes which means getting a flat lie is not very common. Bomb and gouge will not get it done. Basically, it is a 'second shot' course as the approaches are important just to get into position as hitting an approach shot to the wrong place in some cases means not even being able to go after the pin. That brings big scores into play so the thought process is just as important as the physical part of the game. This place emphasizes the mental aspect arguably more than anywhere else but the shots still have to be made. There are no secrets as to what it takes to put yourself into contention as Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach are at the top. Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green plays a key role as according to Data Golf, Augusta National is the toughest course on tour in this category with the demanding greens and strategic bunkering. Despite the importance of ball striking, driving distance still plays a key role especially on the four the Par 5’s which are the only four holes that average under par with all four being reachable. This can also play into the Par 4s with all ten measuring over 440 yards including three at over 490 yards. Putting strength is thought to be a huge component to have success because of the slope, speed and subtleties of the greens but this is not the case. 15 of the last 17 winners were ranked outside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting, the two outliers being Jon Rahm in 2023 (No. 37) and Jordan Spieth in 2015 (No. 9). It is an interesting dynamic because the greens at Augusta National are the ultimate equalizer for every player because of the difficulty so nearly everyone struggles thus the great putters come back to the field. It was ranked No. 2 in SG: Putting Difficulty last year and over the last 15 years, it is ranked No. 2 in SG: Putting Difficulty (>15’) and No. 7 in SG: Putting Difficulty (5 ‘ < Putts < 15’). Past history at Augusta National is paramount as a Masters debutant has not won here since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. There have been numerous close calls along the way but experience, even if it is just a little, has prevailed. There are 21 players in the field this year making their maiden walk around the property. Experience is great but successful experience goes further as 26 of the last 27 winners made the cut the year before they won while 24 of those 27 winners finished T38 or better. 14 of the last 17 winners had finished T22 or better in any previous Masters and 18 of the last 22 winners were at least 27 years old. This cuts the field down a considerable portion as of the 96 players, 28 fit all five of these categories. Another qualifier that we can look at is winning success elsewhere, both quantity and quality. Of the last 16 winners, only two have not won at least four previous events, Danny Willett in 2016 and Jordan Spieth in 2015 while all 16 of those winners had won at least once on U.S. soil within two years. Having success in recent previous majors has found its way to success at Augusta National as of the last 15 winners, 13 have finished T6 or better in a major within the last two years. The two exceptions were Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Charl Schwartzel in 2011. Only 12 players in the field this year nail all three of those outside qualifiers. When looking at the above numbers involving course history success and getting it done away from Augusta National, there are only eight players in the field that check off all 11 boxes and the names are far from staggering (Odd from DraftKings): Scottie Scheffler (+400), Rory McIlroy (+650), Collin Morikawa (+1800), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Bryson DeChambeau (+1800), Hideki Matsuyama (+3000), Russell Henley (+5500) and Jason Day (+7500). These do not necessarily determine a winner as nothing is given but we can correlate these trends with the metrics to pull out our best fits for this week and then go further off track. Surprisingly, the European contingent has struggled at Augusta National. Granted, it is a totally different experience but with the huge number of world class players, a European had not won since 1999 (Jose Maria Olazabal) until 2016 when Danny Willett was the surprising winner and then Sergio Garcia backed it up the next year and it was not until 2023 that Jon Rahm gave the Euros another victory. In total, the green jacket has been given to only nine European players (Nick Faldo 3 times, Olazabal 2 times, Seve Ballesteros 2 times, Bernhard Langer 2 times, Ian Woosnam, Sandy Lyle, Willett, Garcia and Rahm). Americans dominated here early on with Gary Player being the only non-American to win through the first 43 years and he actually did it three times. Since then, it has been up for grabs as over the last 46 years, Americans have won the green jacket 25 times, 16 of those by six players, Tiger Woods (5), Phil Mickelson (3), Tom Watson (2). Ben Crenshaw (2), Bubba Watson (2) and Scottie Scheffler (2) with the rest of the world not far behind with 21 wins. Past history plays a big part as you will see names near the top that you rarely see in other events as successful players here are usually successful more than once. We have seen a mix of good and bad over the last few years and we are expecting nothing but the latter this week. Practice was suspended on Monday and the forecast did call for storms throughout the afternoon with potential thunderstorms that could produce 1 to 2 inches of rain but that is about it. The rest of the week calls for mostly sunny weather during the day with a possibility of scattered showers overnight Thursday into very early Friday morning with temperatures going into the low 70s and very little wind so conditions should be ideal for all four rounds. There are no AM/PM waves or split tee times. Top five key categories this week in order: Strokes Gained: Tee-To-GreenStrokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around-The-GreenPar 5 ScoringPar 4: 450+ / Prox. 200+ Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Collin MorikawaOdds: Win 1,800 ~ Top Five 280 ~ Top Ten 130Payout: Win 9,000.00 ~ Top Five 700.00 ~ Top Ten 325.00 Five of the last six champions have been priced between +500 and +1,400 so we will delve into the short market with one selection and that is Morikawa. He is one of the eight players that fit all 11 history qualifiers and is ranked first in the Data Golf Performance Table. In five starts this season, he has finished no worse than T17 which includes a pair of runner-ups and has gained strokes in all categories in every event except for putting. Going back to The Masters last year, he has made 21 starts, he has not missed a cut, he has gained strokes on approach all but twice and he has gained strokes off the tee all but once resulting in eight top 5s. His last three Masters finishes have been T3, T10 and solo fifth. Tommy FleetwoodOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 500 ~ Top Ten 230Payout: Win 20,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,250.00 ~ Top Ten 575.00 When looking at the 11 history qualifiers, Fleetwood fits ten of those, his only miss is that he has yet to win a tournament on U.S. soil which has been part of his conversation for a while now. His recent majors history is nearly impeccable as over the last three years which includes 12 events, he has missed the cut only twice and in the 10 he was around for the weekend, he has four top 5s including a T3 here last year. The two missed cuts were due to (-) SG: Approach, the last coming at The Open Championship last year and in 16 events since then, he has gained strokes on approach 15 times. He is also (+) in SG: Around-The-Green in 12 of those and (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in 15 of those. Shane LowryOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 250Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,375.00 ~ Top Ten 625.00 Lowry possesses everything we look at to win here which are current form, course history and major accomplishments. He has missed one cut in seven starts this year and has four T11s including a solo second at Pebble Beach while gaining strokes across the board except for putting where he has lost strokes in five of seven, but putting is not as crucial here as mentioned. Like Fleetwood, he has missed only two cuts in majors over the last three years, losing strokes in approach in both but he was (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all 12. He finished T43 here last year, his only failure from the above 11 history qualifiers, but prior to that were four straight top 25s including a T3 in 2022. Russell HenleyOdds: Win 5,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 320Payout: Win 27,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 800.00 Henley is ranked No. 7 in the OWGR which many would not guess, has not finished outside the top 40 in seven starts this year and has not missed a cut since THE PLAYERS Championship last season. He is part of the group of eight players that fit all 11 history qualifiers and breaking that down, he made the cut in all four majors last season including a T7 and solo fifth and in 2023, he had a T14 The U.S. Open and a T4 at Augusta National. He has gained strokes in every category in his last 12 rounds, 24 rounds, 50 rounds and 100 rounds and is ranked No. 4 in the Data Golf Performance Table. He is not long off the tee but his Masters history shuns that as does his win at Bay Hill last month. Robert MacIntyreOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 825.00 MacIntyre is the shortest chalk lefty in the field and at those odds, he is hardly a favorite but needs to be looked at. His three worst finishes this season (T40, T53, MC) were when he was bad with the putter but that is the least of the metrics needed and in the MC at The Genesis, he lost strokes in approach which is the only time he has in seven PGA Tour starts. His form is ideal right now as he has gained strokes in all other categories in his last 12 rounds, 24 rounds and 50 rounds. He has not played The Masters the last two years but finished T12 and T23 in 2021 and 2022 respectively and he is coming in with much better form than any of those past four years. Will ZalatorisOdds: Win 6,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 32,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 825.00 The good: Zalatoris has not missed a cut in 11 straight starts with no finish lower than T48. The bad: He has not contended in any of those with his best finish being a T12 twice. He has only one PGA Tour career win but when he was nearing the top of his game, his back gave out and it has been a long recovery but his form is back as he has been dialed in with his irons, losing strokes on approach only once his last 13 starts. His putting has been off but it does not matter here and he is a top lag putter on tour. To say his game fits Augusta National would be an understatement as in three starts, he has a runner-up, a T6 and a T9 and he is second to only Scottie Scheffler in SG: Augusta National going back to 2014. Five players to finish inside the top 20 ($100 per) Min Woo Lee +160, Jason Day +210, Keegan Bradley +260, Billy Horschel +320, Michael Kim +330 Results through The Valero Texas Open (10 Tournaments): Win: -4,000Top Five: -2,000Top Ten: -525

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/07/2025

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Apr 07, 2025

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has two games on its docket. The Detroit Pistons host the Sacramento Kings at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 230.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Miami Heat play at home against the Philadelphia 76ers at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 214. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to New York to play the Rangers at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets are home against the St. Louis Blues at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Three games conclude the NHL card at 10:37 p.m. ET. The Edmonton Oilers play in Anaheim against the Ducks as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Calgary Flames are in San Jose to face the Sharks as a -185 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings host the Seattle Kraken as a -238 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule concludes with the championship game of the NCAA tournament in the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Florida battles Houston on CBS at 8:50 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees visit the Detroit Tigers at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The St. Louis Cardinals play in Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Washington to face the Nationals as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Miami Marlins travel to New York to play the Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET. Two more MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals are home against the Minnesota Twins as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs host the Texas Rangers as a -130 money-line favorite. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Baltimore Orioles as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the Houston Astros as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The San Francisco Giants are home against the Cincinnati Reds at 9:45 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The San Diego Padres visit Oakland to challenge the A’s at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League concludes with one game. Newcastle United plays at Leicester City on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, EPL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/06/2025

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Apr 06, 2025

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has 11 games on its docket. The Chicago Bulls travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets at 1:10 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point road favorite with the total set at 226.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 233. The Toronto Raptors play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 213.5. Four NBA games start at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Hawks play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 243.5. The Portland Trail Blazers are home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 3-point favorite with a total of 227.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Sacramento Kings as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 237.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Washington Wizards as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 226. The New York Knicks are home against the Phoenix Suns at 7:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Denver Nuggets host the Indiana Pacers at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 238.5. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Bucks are in New Orleans to face the Pelicans as a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Houston Rockers as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. The Washington Capitals visit New York to play the Islanders on TNT at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Minnesota against the Wild on TNT at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators are home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers are in Detroit to play the Red Wings at 5:37 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres host the Boston Bruins as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play in Chicago against the Blackhawks as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Nashville Predators play at home against the Montreal Canadiens at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Vancouver to go against the Canucks on ESPN as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has one game between Division I opponents with the finals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Nebraska battles Central Florida on Fox at 5:30 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite at BetOnline with an over/under of 159.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. Five MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox are home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -115 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5. The New York Yankees travel to Pittsburgh to challenge the Pirates as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Philadelphia against the Phillies as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Washington against the Nationals as a -175 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the Chicago White Sox as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Houston Astros as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles visit the Kansas City Royals as a -112 road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs play at home against the San Diego Padres as a -135 money-line favorite. The Texas Rangers are home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 2:35 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Oakland A’s play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The San Francisco Giants host the Seattle Mariners at 4:05 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the Boston Red Sox playing at home against the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League continues with four games. Three games start at 9:00 a.m. ET. Chelsea travel to Brentford on the USA  Network as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. Liverpool plays at Fulham as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham is home against Southampton as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Manchester City is at Manchester United at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5.  

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, EPL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/05/2025

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 05, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. The New York Knicks travel to Atlanta to face the Hawks at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite, with the total set at 237 (all odds from DraftKings). Two more NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies travel to Detroit to play the Grizzlies as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 239.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play in Philadelphia to go against the 76ers as a 15-point road favorite with a total of 225. The Milwaukee Bucks are in Miami to face the Heat at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 215.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Dallas Mavericks at 10:40 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 220.5. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The New Jersey Devils play at home against the New York Rangers on ABC at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Florida Panthers play in Ottawa against the Senators at 2:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins on ABC at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -305 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 4:07 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Kings are home against the Edmonton Oilers as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Vancouver Canucks host the Anaheim Ducks as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.Six NHL games start at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche are on the road at St. Louis Blues as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Montreal Canadiens play at home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit the Utah Hockey Club as a -142 money-line road favor with an over/under of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Buffalo against the Sabres as a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are in Boston to take on the Boston Bruins as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Seattle Kraken traveled to San Jose to play the Sharks as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Calgary against the Flames as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has four games between Division I opponents. The semifinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament take place on Fox at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State battles Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 15.4.5. Villanova challenges Central Florida at 4:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 156.5. The final four of the national championship in college basketball at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, has two games on CBS. Florida takes on Auburn at 6:09 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 159.5. Duke goes against Houston at 8:49 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 136.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Houston Astros as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs are home against the San Diego Padres at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play the Philadelphia Phillies as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Washington to battle the Nationals as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Texas Rangers are home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets host the Toronto Blue Jays as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cincinnati Reds travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on FS1 as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Miami Marlins at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Oakland A’s play in Colorado against the Rockies at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The San Francisco Giants are home against the Seattle Mariners at 9:05 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians visit Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League begins with five games. Arsenal is at Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5-goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Three more EPL games start at 10:00 a.m. ET. Crystal Palace hosts Brighton and Hove Albion as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Wolverhampton plays at Ipswich Town on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Bournemouth is at West Ham United as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Aston Villa plays at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/04/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 04, 2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Sacramento Kings travel to Charlotte to face the Kings as an 11-point road favorite with the total set at 219.5. The Indiana Pacers host the Utah Jazz as a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Detroit Pistons play in Toronto against the Raptors as a 12-point road favorite with a total of 227.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 15-point favorite with an over/under of 228.Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in Houston to take on the Rockets as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers visit San Antonio to challenge the Spurs as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 241. The Chicago Bulls are home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. The Denver Nuggets play in Golden State against the Warriors as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 233. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:40 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers host the New Orleans Pelicans as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 225. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the Dallas Mavericks as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225.The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Carolina Hurricanes are in Detroit to battle the Red Wings a a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Washington Capitals are home against the Chicago Black Hawks as a -425 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago Cubs are home against the San Diego Padres at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Mets host the Toronto Blue Jays at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Oakland A’s travel to Colorado to face the Rockies at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The New York Yankees play in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 4:12 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 4:35 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Philadelphia to battle the Phillies on Apple TV+ as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Washington to go against the Nationals as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are home against the Tampa Bay Rays on Apple TV+ at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Cleveland Guardians play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, EPL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 04/03/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 03, 2025

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Philadelphia to face the 76ers as a 12-point road favorite, with the total set at 224.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Orlando Magic play in Washington against the Wizards as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 216.5. Three NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are in Miami to play the Heat on TNT as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 227. The Portland Trail Blazers visit Toronto to face the Raptors as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 225. The Minnesota Timberwolves play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 216. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Golden State Warriors on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Montreal Canadiens play at home against the Boston Bruins as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning are in Ottawa to go against the Senators as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche visit Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars are home against the Nashville Predators as a -290 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The St. Louis Blues host the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings play in Utah against the Hockey Club at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are home against the Winnipeg Jets at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are in San Jose to face the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -278 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has three games between Division I opponents. The final two games in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament on FS1 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Cincinnati challenges Central Florida as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152.5.The championship game of the NIT takes place at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. UC-Irvine battles Chattanooga on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5. The second quarterfinal game in the College Basketball Crown has Villanova taking on USC at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 151.5. Major League Baseball has five games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Houston Astros at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League concludes with one game. Chelsea is home to take on Tottenham at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/02/2025

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 02, 2025

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the New York Knicks on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 230 (all odds from DraftKings). The Indiana Pacers play at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The Sacramento Kings travel to Washington to face the Wizards as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. The Boston Celtics are home against the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 213. The Houston Rockets host the Utah Jazz at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Atlanta Hawks at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 238. The Denver Nuggets are home against the San Antonio Spurs at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 15-point favorite with a total of 235.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Detroit Pistons on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the New Orleans Pelicans at 10:40 p.m. ET as an 18-point favorite with a total of 216.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New York Rangers are home against the Minnesota Wild on TNT as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the Washington Capitals as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Florida Panthers at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche plays at Chicago against the Blackhawks on TNT at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -360 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks are home against the Seattle Kraken at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has the first two games in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament on FS1 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State battles Butler at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5. Nebraska challenges Georgetown at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds host the Texas Rangers as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Tampa Bay to face the Rays as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The St. Louis Cardinals are home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:15 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Washington Nationals play in Toronto to go against the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are in Oakland to play the A’s at 3:35 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros host the San Francisco Giants as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers travel to Seattle to play the Mariners as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Mets play in Miami against the Marlins at 4:40 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are in Baltimore to take on the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the Colorado Rockies at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Atlanta Braves at 8:38 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 8.Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League continues with six games. Five matches start at 2:45 p.m. ET. Bournemouth is home against Ipswich Town as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Brighton and Hove Albion host the Aston Villa as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester City hosts Leicester City on the USA Network as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Crystal Palace visits Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Everton at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.  

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Valero Texas Open Preview and Best Bets

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Apr 01, 2025

Min Woo Lee held off Sunday back nine charges from Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland to capture his first PGA Tour title with a one shot win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. San Antonio will be abuzz this weekend with the PGA Tour in town along with the city hosting the Final Four and even the Cleveland Cavalier make an appearance on Friday. The tour remains in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the third longest running event on tour, and while it has always been in the River City area, TPC San Antonio has held the event every year since 2010. TPC San Antonio is a par 72, 7,438-yard layout that sits 1,100 feet above elevation which reduces some of the distance because of the thinner air. Even though this is one of the longer courses on tour, ranked No. 20 in distance, accuracy is ideally more important and because of the dry firm conditions, there will be plenty of roll with accurate players keeping it in the fairway whereas errant tee shots will gather outside the heavily tree-lined fairways and native areas. It is flat, the rough is short and non-penal and there are only three water hazards across the property yet it is typically ranked in the top ten in difficulty and there is one good reason for that, the good ole’ Texas wind. Trying to defend his 2024 win is Akshay Bhatia, who picked up his second career PGA Tour win in a playoff over Denny McCarthy. He maintained a six-shot lead with nine holes remaining but McCarthy birdied his final seven holes to force the playoff which Bhatia won on the first hole. The last back-to-back winner was Zach Johnson in 2008-2009 and Bhatia will have a tough time defending against a talented field. Eight players ranked in the OWGR Top 25 are teeing it up and the field is strewn with others looking to win to gain a spot in The Masters next week. Ludvig Aberg (12/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Corey Conners (18/1), Patrick Cantlay (20/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20/1) are the chalky favorites this week. Accuracy off the tee is more important than distance so Stroke Gained: Off-The-Tee is where to look but on a secondary level as straight and long are both obviously beneficial but having one and not the other is not a liability. Hitting greens here is tough and well below the tour average which makes the short game very important, similar to last week at Memorial Park. TPC San Antonio has 64 bunkers so in addition to looking at Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and Scrambling, we also have to look at Sand Saves Gained. Putting is ranked down this week on the greens that typically run slow, rolling at an average of 11 on the Stimpmeter. There have been weather issues each of the last three weeks, leading to a Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS Championship, a Thursday/Friday wind wave at the Valspar Championship and heavy rain and storms leading to delays and ball in hand for the first three days in Houston. The biggest threat of rain in the forecast is overnight Friday into Saturday so precipitation looks clean. The wind will be lurking as usual but should not make a big impact with the worst of it coming Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thursday will be relatively calm and after that, gusts will not be constant and top out around 20-23 mph Friday-Sunday so this looks to be the first time in a month we need not be weather concerned. Top four key categories this week in order: Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenSand Saves GainedStrokes Gained: Off-The-Tee Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Jordan SpiethOdds: Win 2,000 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 10,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 525.00 Spieth has been inconsistent in most areas but has shown flashes in all SG categories. He has not won since 2022 when he was +0.99 in SG: Total and in six starts this year, he is +0.90 so he is close. In his last start at the Valspar Championship, he finished T28 where his iron game was dialed in as he was +1.96 in SG: Approach and his issue was surprisingly with the driver as he was -0.32 in SG: Off-The-Tee, only the third time in his last 23 starts he has been (-) in that category. He has a T4 and a T9 this year and in both events, his putter was on fire and that will not be needed here as his other strengths can get him over the top. Daniel BergerOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 700.00 It has been a long, hard comeback for Berger. After missing the latter half of 2022 and all of 2023, most of 2024 was a struggle but he regained his form in the Fall Swing with a T2 and a T7. After missing the cut in two of his first three starts this season, he has five straight top 25s including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. He is (+) in all SG categories and he is No. 3 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained so his short game is fine tuned. He is No. 20 in SG: Approach and has moved up to No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee while his putting has trended up after almost every event. Bud CauleyOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,125.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Cauley has not won in a decade but he is now fully healthy after recovering from a car accident that cost him all but one event from 2021-2023. Last year was a struggle obviously and while it has only been six starts this year, his +1.30 SG: Total is the best of his career and he is in great form with a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T4 at the Valspar Championship. Only seven players in the field are ranked in the top 40 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-The-Green, Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance and he is one of them while sitting in the top 10 in SG: Approach. Not to mention, he is No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee so his overall game puts him in great position. Lee HodgesOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 Hodges closed last season with a T8, T16 and T5 in three of his last four starts and started this season with a T10 at the Sony open and a T9 at the Farmers but he sustained a rib injury that affected him in his next two starts. He had to take six weeks off but he came back last week to finish T11 in Houston so he has not missed a beat. He was one of the worst putters last year and was (-) in SG: Putting in 11 of his last 12 starts but is (+) in five of six this season which is a bonus to go along with his elite ball striking where he has been (+) in SG: Approach in 11 of his last 12 starts and is No. 9 in the field in that category and has been (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all six starts. Alex SmalleyOdds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 35,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,750.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 We ran with Smalley last week and he missed the cut at TPC San Antonio by one shot, his second MC in as many weeks but we are going with him again in a buy low spot as his odds have gone up considerably. This came after four straight T21 or better finishes so we are not jumping off just yet. He was (-) in SG: Approach in those last two events which could not make up for spectacular driving and that has been his go to since last July. Like Berger, his short game is spot on as he is No. 10 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained. He had a MC here last year but was coming off six straight MCs. Results through Texas Children's Houston Open (9 Tournaments): Win: -1,500Top Five: -3,375Top Ten: -775

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Chris Beard's Ole Miss: Dangerous Dog (if and when they are not favored)

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Ole Miss was a dangerous underdog in one of the three showdowns between the SEC and the Big Ten in the Sweet Sixteen. Florida made a strong case that the SEC is the superior conference with their 16-point victory against Maryland in a Sweet Sixteen game played the night before. The Rebels may have had eleven losses on the year, yet they had an impressive list of victories against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play. They beat BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play before a statement victory against Iowa State as a five-point underdog in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Mississippi shot 58.2% from the field against the Cyclones, and they had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. They had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after pulling off an upset win in their previous game. What makes head coach Chris Beard’s team tough to play is their ability to win the turnover battle. When they had the basketball, they only turned the ball over in 12.9% of their possessions, ranking third best in the country. They forced turnovers in 20.3% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 33rd in the country. The Rebels had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games on the road against non-conference opponents. They had covered the point spread in nine of their last fourteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in all five of their games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.Michigan State faced a difficult challenge against the style of defense that Ole Miss plays. Beard’s defensive philosophy is to take away the middle of the court. His defenders try to force the opposing players to the baseline and the sidelines to use the out-of-bounds as an extra defender. One of the most effective ways to confront this type of defensive scheme is to get the ball-handler in isolation and then space the floor to either unclog the middle or find open areas. The Spartans' offense was predicated on ball movement. They had an assist rate of 61.1% of their made field goals, the 17th-highest mark in the country. Yet ball movement does not necessarily penetrate a clogged middle. Head coach Tom Izzo rarely relies on isolation plays. His team ranked 342nd in the frequency of isolation plays coming off of passes, and they ranked 337th in offensive efficiency from those isolation plays. Michigan State won for the tenth time in their last eleven games with a 71-63 victory against New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet of concern in that game was that their freshman phenom, Jase Richardson, only scored 6 points and missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts. Richardson jump-started the Spartans' scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup in early February. He was making 40.4% of his 3-pointers. He had played twelve straight games where he scored 10 or more points. He might have just had an off night, or the freshman may have struggled with the pressure of the NCAA tournament. If he is not hitting his 3s, Michigan State could be in grave trouble since they only make 31.0% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 323rd in the country. They only take 32.7% of their shots from 3-point land. That mark ranked 329th in the country and far below the national average of teams taking 39.0% of their shots from the 3-point line. Ole Miss was limiting their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, ranking 98th in the country. The Spartans were one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the country. Yet Michigan State usually loses the turnover battle. They only forced turnovers 16.2% of the time, ranking 245th in the country. In Big Ten play, they turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, ranking 13th in the conference. Given their lack of 3-point shooting, rebounding may not be enough to cover the point spread against this tested Rebels team that wins the turnover battle. The Spartans survived this Sweet Sixteen showdown, yet they only won by a 73-70 score. Ole Miss covered the point spread with most oddsmakers closing that game with the Rebels at +3.5. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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Nate Oats' Commitment to The Analytics Lowers Alabama's Potential Once Again

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Alabama’s Nate Oats is a fine head coach. From his four seasons with Buffalo to now six years with the Crimson Tide, he has demonstrated that a commitment to the foundational elements of the contributions from the analytical community can raise the floor regarding expectations of success for a basketball team. But I worry that a rigid devotion to these principles can also impose a ceiling regarding regarding what a basketball team can achieve. The case in point is Alabama’s Elite Eight encounter with Duke this season. The Crimson’s style under Oats has been consistent. On offense, his teams play fast and take almost half of their shots from behind the arc. On defense, his teams defend the perimeter and attempt to protect the rim. This approach is gospel to the analytics community, who never tire of lecturing the world that three points are more than two points and shots at the rim are higher percentage than midrange jump shots inside the arc. They get paid for such insight, which is one of the many reasons I mock many of these folks across all sports as invoking The Analytics. We get it. Not sure if this revelation reinvented the wheel as much as the price for the information. And, as Mike D’Antoni can attest, it is far from certain that simply reading The Big Book of Analytics (written but never updated in 2016) produces championships.  The Crimson Tide defense continues to be their weak link. On paper, they looked good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allowed their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots, which ranks 161st in the nation heading into their showdown with the Blue Devils — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses. Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they ranked 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummeted to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they ranked 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams. The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They had surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games before their Elite Eight game with Duke — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats, including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. And against Duke in the Elite Eight this year, they got blasted by an 85-65 score. The Blue Devils made 30 of their 57 (52.6%) shots — including 24 of their 43 shots from inside the arc. When opponents are scoring 48 points on 55.8% shooting from their 2-point shots before 3-point shooting and free throws, it will be very tough for Oats and The Analytics to overcome it. Best of luck — Frank.

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My Secret Weapon in Attacking College Basketball Totals: Opponent Possession Average

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

One of the tools in my proverbial toolbox when handicapping college basketball over/unders is Defensive Opponent Possession Average. This metric took on a starring role for the Elite Eight game in the NCAA Tournament between Tennessee and Houston — and it helped me determine that the situation would be my 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year.The Volunteers and Cougars ranked 351st and 354th out of the 364 teams in Division I, with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. For comparison's sake, the average possession length in Division I is 17.6 seconds. What does this mean, in practice? I see two distinct ramifications regarding shot quality. First, teams who shoot earlier in the shot clock tend to do so because they were able to generate a good shooting opportunity. Teams with longer opponents' average possession length are not giving up quality looks early in the shot clock. Second, the closer the team with the basketball gets to a shot clock violation, the more likely they are to force up a bad shot. So, Tennessee and Houston are two of the best teams in the nation when it comes to coaxing their opponents to take their first shot at the rim later in the shot clock. This helps Under plays for two reasons: (1) The longer a possession, the fewer overall possessions in a game. (2) The quality of the shots tend be worse if a team is taking longer to take a shot because of the play of the defense. But just like with any other angle, I would not endorse an Under play simply because it involved two teams with impressive numbers with this metric. To a certain extent, the number already takes this dynamic into account since it is represented by the team’s defensive efficiency numbers. I am most effective when taking multiple different perspectives into account to come to a conclusion. In the case of Tennessee versus Houston, there were several important factors and pieces of evidence that led me to bet and endorse the Under, despite the Total being set in the low 120s.Tennessee allowed the Kentucky Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in their previous game in the Sweet 16, which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting, which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc, which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game, which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row, which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee was once again an elite defensive team that ranked third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also ranked fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They presented a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they led the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc going into that game. But that mark did decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers had an elite perimeter defense that ranked second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranked 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they were scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers had played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who were making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They had played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They had played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games, including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers had played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Purdue Boilermakers in their victory in the Sweet 16. That effort continued a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts was perhaps not back to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cougars are the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They ranked 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they ranked second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They were holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting, which was resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee had only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also had an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play. The Volunteers ranked 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number did speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stopping the opponent’s offensive rebounding. But those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston had played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They had played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they had played 13 of these games Under the Total.If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. These are the reasons why Hollywood Sports was on the Under with a strong 25* endorsement — which we won with the Cougars’ 69-50 victory. Best of luck — Frank.

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