"A strong mind is one of the key components that separates the great from the good." – Gary Player
The most anticipated time of the golf season has arrived as it is the week of The Masters. This is considered by many as the unofficial start of spring and while avid golf fans live for this event, even non-golf enthusiasts know about this epic tournament and what it means. Its beautiful simplicity is what makes it the greatest golf tournament in the world and famed Augusta National plays host to its 89th Masters. Back in the day, hitting the ball a mile would be the greatest asset a player could have and even though the yardage has increased from 6,985 yards in 2001 to 7,555 yards today, making it the 8th longest course on tour, bombing it is no longer the biggest necessity.
Unless you have seen Augusta National in person, you cannot appreciate the undulations throughout and the enormous elevation changes which means getting a flat lie is not very common. Bomb and gouge will not get it done. Basically, it is a 'second shot' course as the approaches are important just to get into position as hitting an approach shot to the wrong place in some cases means not even being able to go after the pin. That brings big scores into play so the thought process is just as important as the physical part of the game. This place emphasizes the mental aspect arguably more than anywhere else but the shots still have to be made.
There are no secrets as to what it takes to put yourself into contention as Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach are at the top. Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green plays a key role as according to Data Golf, Augusta National is the toughest course on tour in this category with the demanding greens and strategic bunkering. Despite the importance of ball striking, driving distance still plays a key role especially on the four the Par 5’s which are the only four holes that average under par with all four being reachable. This can also play into the Par 4s with all ten measuring over 440 yards including three at over 490 yards.
Putting strength is thought to be a huge component to have success because of the slope, speed and subtleties of the greens but this is not the case. 15 of the last 17 winners were ranked outside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting, the two outliers being Jon Rahm in 2023 (No. 37) and Jordan Spieth in 2015 (No. 9). It is an interesting dynamic because the greens at Augusta National are the ultimate equalizer for every player because of the difficulty so nearly everyone struggles thus the great putters come back to the field. It was ranked No. 2 in SG: Putting Difficulty last year and over the last 15 years, it is ranked No. 2 in SG: Putting Difficulty (>15’) and No. 7 in SG: Putting Difficulty (5 ‘ < Putts < 15’).
Past history at Augusta National is paramount as a Masters debutant has not won here since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. There have been numerous close calls along the way but experience, even if it is just a little, has prevailed. There are 21 players in the field this year making their maiden walk around the property. Experience is great but successful experience goes further as 26 of the last 27 winners made the cut the year before they won while 24 of those 27 winners finished T38 or better. 14 of the last 17 winners had finished T22 or better in any previous Masters and 18 of the last 22 winners were at least 27 years old. This cuts the field down a considerable portion as of the 96 players, 28 fit all five of these categories.
Another qualifier that we can look at is winning success elsewhere, both quantity and quality. Of the last 16 winners, only two have not won at least four previous events, Danny Willett in 2016 and Jordan Spieth in 2015 while all 16 of those winners had won at least once on U.S. soil within two years. Having success in recent previous majors has found its way to success at Augusta National as of the last 15 winners, 13 have finished T6 or better in a major within the last two years. The two exceptions were Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Charl Schwartzel in 2011. Only 12 players in the field this year nail all three of those outside qualifiers.
When looking at the above numbers involving course history success and getting it done away from Augusta National, there are only eight players in the field that check off all 11 boxes and the names are far from staggering (Odd from DraftKings): Scottie Scheffler (+400), Rory McIlroy (+650), Collin Morikawa (+1800), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Bryson DeChambeau (+1800), Hideki Matsuyama (+3000), Russell Henley (+5500) and Jason Day (+7500). These do not necessarily determine a winner as nothing is given but we can correlate these trends with the metrics to pull out our best fits for this week and then go further off track.
Surprisingly, the European contingent has struggled at Augusta National. Granted, it is a totally different experience but with the huge number of world class players, a European had not won since 1999 (Jose Maria Olazabal) until 2016 when Danny Willett was the surprising winner and then Sergio Garcia backed it up the next year and it was not until 2023 that Jon Rahm gave the Euros another victory. In total, the green jacket has been given to only nine European players (Nick Faldo 3 times, Olazabal 2 times, Seve Ballesteros 2 times, Bernhard Langer 2 times, Ian Woosnam, Sandy Lyle, Willett, Garcia and Rahm).
Americans dominated here early on with Gary Player being the only non-American to win through the first 43 years and he actually did it three times. Since then, it has been up for grabs as over the last 46 years, Americans have won the green jacket 25 times, 16 of those by six players, Tiger Woods (5), Phil Mickelson (3), Tom Watson (2). Ben Crenshaw (2), Bubba Watson (2) and Scottie Scheffler (2) with the rest of the world not far behind with 21 wins. Past history plays a big part as you will see names near the top that you rarely see in other events as successful players here are usually successful more than once.
We have seen a mix of good and bad over the last few years and we are expecting nothing but the latter this week. Practice was suspended on Monday and the forecast did call for storms throughout the afternoon with potential thunderstorms that could produce 1 to 2 inches of rain but that is about it. The rest of the week calls for mostly sunny weather during the day with a possibility of scattered showers overnight Thursday into very early Friday morning with temperatures going into the low 70s and very little wind so conditions should be ideal for all four rounds. There are no AM/PM waves or split tee times.
Top five key categories this week in order:
Strokes Gained: Tee-To-GreenStrokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around-The-GreenPar 5 ScoringPar 4: 450+ / Prox. 200+
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Collin MorikawaOdds: Win 1,800 ~ Top Five 280 ~ Top Ten 130Payout: Win 9,000.00 ~ Top Five 700.00 ~ Top Ten 325.00
Five of the last six champions have been priced between +500 and +1,400 so we will delve into the short market with one selection and that is Morikawa. He is one of the eight players that fit all 11 history qualifiers and is ranked first in the Data Golf Performance Table. In five starts this season, he has finished no worse than T17 which includes a pair of runner-ups and has gained strokes in all categories in every event except for putting. Going back to The Masters last year, he has made 21 starts, he has not missed a cut, he has gained strokes on approach all but twice and he has gained strokes off the tee all but once resulting in eight top 5s. His last three Masters finishes have been T3, T10 and solo fifth.
Tommy FleetwoodOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 500 ~ Top Ten 230Payout: Win 20,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,250.00 ~ Top Ten 575.00
When looking at the 11 history qualifiers, Fleetwood fits ten of those, his only miss is that he has yet to win a tournament on U.S. soil which has been part of his conversation for a while now. His recent majors history is nearly impeccable as over the last three years which includes 12 events, he has missed the cut only twice and in the 10 he was around for the weekend, he has four top 5s including a T3 here last year. The two missed cuts were due to (-) SG: Approach, the last coming at The Open Championship last year and in 16 events since then, he has gained strokes on approach 15 times. He is also (+) in SG: Around-The-Green in 12 of those and (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in 15 of those.
Shane LowryOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 250Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,375.00 ~ Top Ten 625.00
Lowry possesses everything we look at to win here which are current form, course history and major accomplishments. He has missed one cut in seven starts this year and has four T11s including a solo second at Pebble Beach while gaining strokes across the board except for putting where he has lost strokes in five of seven, but putting is not as crucial here as mentioned. Like Fleetwood, he has missed only two cuts in majors over the last three years, losing strokes in approach in both but he was (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all 12. He finished T43 here last year, his only failure from the above 11 history qualifiers, but prior to that were four straight top 25s including a T3 in 2022.
Russell HenleyOdds: Win 5,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 320Payout: Win 27,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 800.00
Henley is ranked No. 7 in the OWGR which many would not guess, has not finished outside the top 40 in seven starts this year and has not missed a cut since THE PLAYERS Championship last season. He is part of the group of eight players that fit all 11 history qualifiers and breaking that down, he made the cut in all four majors last season including a T7 and solo fifth and in 2023, he had a T14 The U.S. Open and a T4 at Augusta National. He has gained strokes in every category in his last 12 rounds, 24 rounds, 50 rounds and 100 rounds and is ranked No. 4 in the Data Golf Performance Table. He is not long off the tee but his Masters history shuns that as does his win at Bay Hill last month.
Robert MacIntyreOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 825.00
MacIntyre is the shortest chalk lefty in the field and at those odds, he is hardly a favorite but needs to be looked at. His three worst finishes this season (T40, T53, MC) were when he was bad with the putter but that is the least of the metrics needed and in the MC at The Genesis, he lost strokes in approach which is the only time he has in seven PGA Tour starts. His form is ideal right now as he has gained strokes in all other categories in his last 12 rounds, 24 rounds and 50 rounds. He has not played The Masters the last two years but finished T12 and T23 in 2021 and 2022 respectively and he is coming in with much better form than any of those past four years.
Will ZalatorisOdds: Win 6,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 32,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 825.00
The good: Zalatoris has not missed a cut in 11 straight starts with no finish lower than T48. The bad: He has not contended in any of those with his best finish being a T12 twice. He has only one PGA Tour career win but when he was nearing the top of his game, his back gave out and it has been a long recovery but his form is back as he has been dialed in with his irons, losing strokes on approach only once his last 13 starts. His putting has been off but it does not matter here and he is a top lag putter on tour. To say his game fits Augusta National would be an understatement as in three starts, he has a runner-up, a T6 and a T9 and he is second to only Scottie Scheffler in SG: Augusta National going back to 2014.
Five players to finish inside the top 20 ($100 per) Min Woo Lee +160, Jason Day +210, Keegan Bradley +260, Billy Horschel +320, Michael Kim +330
Results through The Valero Texas Open (10 Tournaments):
Win: -4,000Top Five: -2,000Top Ten: -525
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