by Matt Fargo
Monday, Jul 13, 2026All win totals courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Auburn Tigers Over 6.5 -115
Here we have a situation where a coaching change should boost the value of a team and in this case, it is for Auburn. The Tigers have underachieved for the last six years as they have gone under their win total every season and now we have seen the total go down a full win from last season. The coach being referred to is Alex Golesh who comes over from South Florida who turned around a program that was dug into the ground by Jeff Scott and he comes into another program that was going nowhere. While the offense has only one returning starter, several players followed Golesh including quarterback Byrum Brown along with a slew of receivers. They have only five road games and while four are against Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, steal one of those should lock this over as the home/neutral slate is a great one. Big turnaround.
Connecticut Huskies Under 5.5 -125
Jim Mora did a masterful job in turning around the Huskies that won 10 games total from 2016 to 2021 as he led them to three bowl games in four years including back-to-back nine-win seasons. Head coach Jason Candle comes over from Toledo but the cupboard is bare as only one total starter is back. Quarterback Joe Fagnano is gone while the only player back is receiver Shamar Porter. Playing as an independent can be good or bad as far as the schedule goes and while it has been favorable in the past, it is the opposite this season. Connecticut opens with FCS Lafayette and after that, there are likely just two sure wins against Southern Mississippi and UMass. They will be challenged in the other nine games including three home ACC games and two SBC home games against James Madison and Old Dominion as well as trips to Air Force and Wyoming.
North Texas Mean Green Under 5.5 +100
North Texas lost seven games in each of the four seasons before going 12-2 last season, the fewest losses the program sustained since 1977. Everything fell into place now it is a complete rebuild. Head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma St. and he took every playmaker, and over two dozen in total, with him as the Mean Green bring back no one. There is no chance they match last season’s success, especially on offense where they were one of the best in the country and the win total is telling us that but even getting six wins will be a challenge for new head coach Neal Brown. North Texas does have the benefit of playing FCS Houston Baptist and getting Charlotte, Rice and UAB at home but after those, the other eight games are either sure losses and coin flip games where they will be the underdog and going 0-6 on the road is more than feasible.
Ohio Bobcats Under 6.5 +100
When looking at unders, three categories are important, returning starters, coaching changes and schedule. Ohio is affected by all three of these. John Hauser takes over for Brian Smith who was fired for misconduct and while Houser has been in the system for the last four seasons, it is still a tough transition year especially with just five total starters returning. The biggest name that is gone is quarterback Parker Navarro who was an outstanding playmaker and there is little experience taking over. The defense is expected to regress once again or at the very least, remain the same average unit it was last season. The schedule is difficult as 1-2 is likely the best outcome in nonconference and in the MAC, the three easiest games are on the road (Sacramento St., Akron, Kent St.) while they miss UMass and have to play three of the four top teams.
Oklahoma St. Cowboys Over 5.5 -166
This is another instance where a coaching change can help a program right away. This one is heavily juiced but it is the only total we are playing that has significant juice so this is one we can eat. Mike Gunday was far from a bad coach but after 21 years, things started getting stale and it started in 2024 when the Cowboys were one of the favorites to win the Big 12 and finished with three wins and last year was a disaster with the only victory being a FCS win. Eric Morris is the new coach and he was a great hire and he brought most of his staff with him. While Oklahoma St. has only one returning starter, it does not matter here as much of the North Texas team tagged along including quarterback Drew Mestemaker. The schedule sets up perfect as it faces only two of the top five Big 12 teams and five of the bottom six and will go 2-1 in the nonconference.
UCLA Bruins Over 6.5 +110
We have mentioned coaching changes when playing unders but we also take that into consideration when looking at overs. We have a significant coaching upgrade for UCLA as DeShaun Foster was let go last season after a 0-3 start and the program went with Bob Chesney from James Madison, arguably one of the best hires in the country. He comes into a decent situation with the Bruins returning nine starters and filling a lot of the voids will be the players he brought with him from James Madison so there should not be much of a learning curve. One of the key returnees is quarterback Nico Iamaleava who was not very good but has a chance for a huge recovery. The schedule is one of the easiest in the conference as they miss Ohio St., Indiana and Penn St. and play a number of the bottom teams. UCLA is projected to be a double-digit underdog only twice.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Under 5.5 -115
Wake Forest won nine games last season under first year head coach Jake Dickert and it was fortunate with four one possession wins. The Demon Deacons have a lot to replace on offense especially in the run game as leading rusher Demond Claiborne is gone along with four offensive linemen and they went 7-1 last season when they ran for 130 or more yards. Quarterback Robby Ashford is also gone and is being replaced by North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez and it is far from an upgrade. They will have to rely on their defense most likely once again. The schedule looks decent on paper as they face Purdue, Akron and Merrimack in the nonconference and in the ACC, while they miss Clemson and Florida St., they have five road games including Louisville, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke while having to go west to face California so it is not a cakewalk.
Auburn Tigers Over 6.5 -115
Here we have a situation where a coaching change should boost the value of a team and in this case, it is for Auburn. The Tigers have underachieved for the last six years as they have gone under their win total every season and now we have seen the total go down a full win from last season. The coach being referred to is Alex Golesh who comes over from South Florida who turned around a program that was dug into the ground by Jeff Scott and he comes into another program that was going nowhere. While the offense has only one returning starter, several players followed Golesh including quarterback Byrum Brown along with a slew of receivers. They have only five road games and while four are against Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, steal one of those should lock this over as the home/neutral slate is a great one. Big turnaround.
Connecticut Huskies Under 5.5 -125
Jim Mora did a masterful job in turning around the Huskies that won 10 games total from 2016 to 2021 as he led them to three bowl games in four years including back-to-back nine-win seasons. Head coach Jason Candle comes over from Toledo but the cupboard is bare as only one total starter is back. Quarterback Joe Fagnano is gone while the only player back is receiver Shamar Porter. Playing as an independent can be good or bad as far as the schedule goes and while it has been favorable in the past, it is the opposite this season. Connecticut opens with FCS Lafayette and after that, there are likely just two sure wins against Southern Mississippi and UMass. They will be challenged in the other nine games including three home ACC games and two SBC home games against James Madison and Old Dominion as well as trips to Air Force and Wyoming.
North Texas Mean Green Under 5.5 +100
North Texas lost seven games in each of the four seasons before going 12-2 last season, the fewest losses the program sustained since 1977. Everything fell into place now it is a complete rebuild. Head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma St. and he took every playmaker, and over two dozen in total, with him as the Mean Green bring back no one. There is no chance they match last season’s success, especially on offense where they were one of the best in the country and the win total is telling us that but even getting six wins will be a challenge for new head coach Neal Brown. North Texas does have the benefit of playing FCS Houston Baptist and getting Charlotte, Rice and UAB at home but after those, the other eight games are either sure losses and coin flip games where they will be the underdog and going 0-6 on the road is more than feasible.
Ohio Bobcats Under 6.5 +100
When looking at unders, three categories are important, returning starters, coaching changes and schedule. Ohio is affected by all three of these. John Hauser takes over for Brian Smith who was fired for misconduct and while Houser has been in the system for the last four seasons, it is still a tough transition year especially with just five total starters returning. The biggest name that is gone is quarterback Parker Navarro who was an outstanding playmaker and there is little experience taking over. The defense is expected to regress once again or at the very least, remain the same average unit it was last season. The schedule is difficult as 1-2 is likely the best outcome in nonconference and in the MAC, the three easiest games are on the road (Sacramento St., Akron, Kent St.) while they miss UMass and have to play three of the four top teams.
Oklahoma St. Cowboys Over 5.5 -166
This is another instance where a coaching change can help a program right away. This one is heavily juiced but it is the only total we are playing that has significant juice so this is one we can eat. Mike Gunday was far from a bad coach but after 21 years, things started getting stale and it started in 2024 when the Cowboys were one of the favorites to win the Big 12 and finished with three wins and last year was a disaster with the only victory being a FCS win. Eric Morris is the new coach and he was a great hire and he brought most of his staff with him. While Oklahoma St. has only one returning starter, it does not matter here as much of the North Texas team tagged along including quarterback Drew Mestemaker. The schedule sets up perfect as it faces only two of the top five Big 12 teams and five of the bottom six and will go 2-1 in the nonconference.
UCLA Bruins Over 6.5 +110
We have mentioned coaching changes when playing unders but we also take that into consideration when looking at overs. We have a significant coaching upgrade for UCLA as DeShaun Foster was let go last season after a 0-3 start and the program went with Bob Chesney from James Madison, arguably one of the best hires in the country. He comes into a decent situation with the Bruins returning nine starters and filling a lot of the voids will be the players he brought with him from James Madison so there should not be much of a learning curve. One of the key returnees is quarterback Nico Iamaleava who was not very good but has a chance for a huge recovery. The schedule is one of the easiest in the conference as they miss Ohio St., Indiana and Penn St. and play a number of the bottom teams. UCLA is projected to be a double-digit underdog only twice.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Under 5.5 -115
Wake Forest won nine games last season under first year head coach Jake Dickert and it was fortunate with four one possession wins. The Demon Deacons have a lot to replace on offense especially in the run game as leading rusher Demond Claiborne is gone along with four offensive linemen and they went 7-1 last season when they ran for 130 or more yards. Quarterback Robby Ashford is also gone and is being replaced by North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez and it is far from an upgrade. They will have to rely on their defense most likely once again. The schedule looks decent on paper as they face Purdue, Akron and Merrimack in the nonconference and in the ACC, while they miss Clemson and Florida St., they have five road games including Louisville, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke while having to go west to face California so it is not a cakewalk.
