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Hot Streaks and Achievements

*64%* 16 of 25, *58%* 81 of 139, *55%* 339 of 612 All-Sports runs, *64%* 44 of 69 25*s through 3/26
*65%* 11 of 17, *59%* 46 of 78, *61%* 62 of 101 CBB runs, *74%* 29 of 39 CBB Totals through 3/26
16 PGA Tour winners in the last 88 reports (ONE in '25); *64%* 51 of 82 props run through 3/26

Biography

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his A-List clients.

Active since: 1997

Location: Las Vegas, NV

Frank Sawyer founded Hollywood Sports in 1997 at the urging of his celebrity clients, who recognized (and were greatly benefiting from) Frank’s unique handicapping skill set. Over the last 23 years, Frank’s had such spectacular success — with both his picks and his ever-expanding network of clients — that he relocated his business to Las Vegas, Nevada.

Certainly, Frank has the deep knowledge to find the edge in the numbers, but perhaps his greatest edge results from his drive to outwork his competition. And Frank’s hard work and research is instantly illustrated by the extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles.

Also at the core of Frank’s success is a proven methodology. His model starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles, along with the latest in cutting edge analytics, to identify value in the betting line.

Frank believes long-term success not only involves a continuous deep-dive into sports that he covers, but also an expansion into new events that can provide additional tools to use in his handicapping toolbox — with the ultimate goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years, to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey (along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer) that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997.

Frank uses a 10*, 20*, and 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet; 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; while 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated selections with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. Frank’s signature play is his “A-List” release, which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities. For Frank’s futures reports, or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which represents his best value play relative to the odds for the event; and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog which offers value with its potential big payout.

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Super Bowl Autoposy: In-Denial or Don't Believe the Philly Hype?

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

For the first time in four seasons, we lost our NFL Game of the Year — each selection in the Super Bowl — when the Philadelphia Eagles thumped the Kansas City Chiefs by a 40-22 score. I concede that the score was not indicative of how much of a blowout that game was. However, three weeks later, I remain steadfast that it was an outlier game and score. I admit that I could be in complete denial. If so, I hope I discover enlightenment in my deep dives on both the Eagles and Chiefs in late summer when I do my foundational work for the 2024-2025 NFL season. Admittedly, something was nagging me about the situation for this game. I usually post my Report the morning after the championship games but this year only posted them the Friday late night two days before. Despite that, I remain convinced that ff these teams played ten times, I think we saw the outlier worst case scenario for KC. In hindsight, I think I may have underestimated the negative impact of complacency from defending champions — but I convinced myself the opportunity to three-peat overwhelmed those concerns regarding how defending champions can tend to let their guard down. Watching the game, I think Mahomes played the worst game I have ever seen him play — even after the offensive line issues. I do not even pretend to be an Xs and Os expert — but the play-calling had me scratching my head to address the offensive line issues and I have since read commentary from more informed sources sharing this view. I was well aware of the offensive line issues all season. But when they moved Joe Thuney to left tackle, the protection got significantly better (albeit at the expense of their elite inside running since Thuney was no longer at left guard). I double-checked afterwards: Kansas City had given up six sacks combined in their previous four games (excluding the Denver Week 18 game when the starers rested) before the Super Bowl. If Jayden Daniels could put up 36 points (and the Rams put up 405 yards with their suspect offensive line in the playoffs), then I thought Kansas City with two weeks to prepare would be fine. I was convinced Kansas City would play up-tempo to tire out the defensive line that started playing better only when Fangio cut down the snaps of all the Georgia draft picks who had been underachieving. But it didn’t happen. And Marquise Brown did not get as many snaps. I know Fangio’s two-high safety look takes away the deep ball, but you need Brown out there for it to take away the damn deep ball to open up space in the middle. I considered the officiating narrative to be 95% Hindsight Bias and 5% “Michael Jordan Knows How to Play the Refs”. I still do. I argued in my Report for the Super Bowl that the close wins were a feature rather than a bug (for starters, at worst, it's an argument that KC should have lost more games — not that they were due to get blown out). I thought the collection of skill position talent that was all finally healthy was the best Mahomes had at his disposal since the Tyreek Hill days — so I did not even think the “too many close wins” narrative applied to what was going to happen in February football. New England, the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson Seahawks, and the Jordan Bulls all made a living winning close games. Those dynasties were operating at a different level where they were confident that they had the talent and brain trust to win close games.Finally, I remain steadfast that Philly is mediocre — and one of the worst Super Bowl champions in our lifetime. I know there is talk about a dynasty already, so I may be anxious to fade them (unless my summer sober deep dive illuminates something I missed very badly). I think the Eagles got lucky to avoid Detroit. Their best win was against Baltimore before the Super Bowl — and they avoided Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, and even Minnesota. To quote my Super Bowl Report after doing a bunch of work to expose all of the Eagles' close wins: "Their losses were to solid but flawed playoff teams, Washington and Tampa Bay, along with Atlanta early in the season. I appreciate their defense became better when rookie Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup with their base defense shifting to a 4-2-5 nickel look. But their season-long defensive stats benefitted from two games apiece against the New York Giants and Dallas (combined 10-24 record) along with contests against cupcakes like Cleveland, Carolina, New Orleans, and Jacksonville who combined for a 17-51 record. The season-ending injury last month to Nakobe Dean should not be underestimated either since he was the jack-of-all-trades linebacker that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was featuring in his blitz packages. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be healthier with two weeks to rest — but I am not sure he will be at full strength still regarding his mobility (outside the tush-push) given the knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. I worry that the Eagles' passing game is limited — they only passed for more than 236 yards five times this season (and two of those games were in the first month of the season). What if Hurts is only a B+ passer? Sure, I don’t want to punish Philly for evolving into a run-first team when Saquon Barkley had a career year. But if Philadelphia gets into a situation where they have to pass — either because they fall behind by more double-digits (remember their scoring woes in the first quarter) or because it is late in the game — can Hurts win the game with his arm in a facet of his game that has been off going back to the second half of last season? And this raises another point: I’m not sure this Eagles squad is battle-tested. While they were 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession, only four of their victories were against teams who made the playoffs (Washington twice, LA Rams, Green Bay). Remember all those cupcakes they got to play? Their remaining five wins decided by eight points or less were against New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and the New York Giants who all failed to win more than five games. I worry that after playing five straight games at home, the Eagles are playing their first game away from Lincoln Financial Field since December 22nd (a loss at Washington).”I would like to see these teams play a few more times. What happens if Mahomes does not spot Philly 14 points in the first half? That was all but insurmountable. If Kansas City had the opportunity to tie or take the lead in the opening possession of the second half, is the game script simply adhering to how they win most of their games? How does the first quarter go if, after admittedly getting a favorable initial call from the officials, the next five or so coin-flip decisions from the officials do not all go the Eagles' way? Two weeks of working the refs — which is not to say that the Chiefs may have been due (but Hindsight Bias from haters) — but it does question the validity of the blowout. It was a nightmare first half and Mahomes was uncharacteristically awful with his accuracy in those opening three drives even before the pick-six and all-but second pick-six. When Kansas City cannot run the football, they start panicking, the Eagles front smells blood, cue the blowout. Maybe that is lots of Copamine. Thank God the Over cashed. But I am not ready to overreact to that final score when it comes to assessing these two teams next season. Best of luck — Frank.

The Roller Coaster Ride of Aston Viilla in the English Premier League

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

Aston Villa is underachieving in the English Premier League relative to the deeper metrics. They are tied for ninth place in the table with 42 points (albeit with one more match played than Fulham who shares that spot)— but their expected points rise to 42.40. They have scored 40 goals — but their expected goals (xG) rise to 48.990. They have surrendered 45 goals — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is slightly lower at 44.58. Aston Villa has performed better in their return to the UEFA Champions League this year where they earned one of the top eight seeds and a bye into the Final 16 Knockout Stage — and they have a very winnable showdown with Club Brugge on deck so a Quarterfinals or better finish is very much in the card for Emery’s men. The Villans are relatively healthy right now — and they added an important cog for their attack last month by acquiring forward Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United with the option to buy. He gives the starting XI another viable scorer to complement Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers. Aston Villa has been very tough to beat at home where they have lost only once in their last 24 matches in the EPL. This season, they have an W7-D7-L1 mark at home against EPL competition — and their 28 points betray the expected 31.06 points from the predictive analytics. They have 25 goals at home — but their xG is 31.94. They have surrendered 18 goals — but their xGA drops to 15.77. Aston Villa wanted to avenge a 3-0 loss at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea back on December 1st — but that was at the peak of the Blues best stretch all season when they were in much better health. The Villans had won seven of their last 11 matches at home at Villa Park with the other four matches resulting in draws. They came away in that showdown against the Blues with a 2-1 upset victory on February 22nd. Aston Villa surrendered the first goal in the ninth minute but finally leveled the score in the 57th minute in the second half when Marco Asensio scored from a Rashford pass who had just come on as a substitute. Asensio then scored the game-winner from another assist from Rashford in the 89th minute. But they followed that up with a 4-1 loss at Crystal Palace in EPL action on February 25th. The Villans have a W4-D2-L7 mark on the road in the English Premier League with 14 points. Their expected points drop to 11.33 in their 13 matches on the road in the EPL. Aston Villa did return home to beat Cardiff City by a 2-0 score in their latest match in the FA Cup on Friday, February 28th.These recent results only continue to suggest that the Villans are dangerous at home but reckless when on the road. They play their opening round match in the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League on the road against Club Brugge on Tuesday. Best of luck — Frank.

More Reckless Play-Calling Slays the Lions in the Playoffs Again

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

If one could there was one play that defined the Detroit Lions under head coach Dan Campbell, it was during a possession in the fourth quarter that Tom Brady described as their most important of the season. Trailing by a 38-28 score midway through the quarter, the Lions could still pull within a field goal with a touchdown drive and force rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to execute in what would have been a deafening madhouse at Ford Field. Given all the previous mistakes Detroit had made, their prospects looked pretty good after the big hole they dug for themselves. With a veteran quarterback with Super Bowl experience, it was time to get serious and get down to business. Instead, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could not resist opening up his big book of “Look at Me” trick plays and decided that it was the appropriate time to put the ball in the hands of a wide receiver to throw a pass for yet another Gotcha! gimmick play. Unfortunately, for the Lions’ faithful, Jameson Williams threw an interception that all but sealed their fate in an eventual 45-28 upset loss. Asking a wide receiver who has been suspended twice in his career — one for gambling and one for PEDs — to be the steward of the football in a passing play in the most important drive of the season, what could go wrong?Campbell knew the play was coming. His headset was on. He could have vetoed it. Ultimately, that ill-advised play call was on him. But Campbell didn’t veto the play, because his identity is defined by recklessness disguised as aggressiveness. He let Johnson call gimmick play after gimmick play because he thought it was sending a message. It was sending a message, albeit the wrong one. Johnson spent the entire season calling plays as if he was auditioning for head coaching jobs. That was on full display in the Lions’ game in Chicago when he dialed up the fake fumble trick to great fanfare despite the final score not being in doubt. This is the old Daffy Duck problem when he finally decided to one-up Bugs Bunny by drinking his special TNT cocktail that allowed him to explode on stage and his soul ascent into heaven in front of an amazed crowd: sure, Daffy finally bested Bugs, but as he remarked in his skyward exit, the only problem with the trick is that he could only do it once. Why waste such a sweet trick play in a meaningless moment? I remember Johnson’s trick play using right tackle Penei Sewell as a receiver late in the game against Dallas when the Lions were crushing the Cowboys. Another flashy play from the boy-genius! But besides the problem of wasting trick plays in blowouts, this play was executed in about 15 minutes of real time from the season-ending injury to defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Imagine the impact to the season if asking Sewell to be a wide receiver rather than a tight end ending up in an injury by asking him to execute plays and potentially get hit in the legs by defenders in plays that he is protected from when blocking on the line? Flashy. Reckless. Irresponsible.After Detroit’s loss in the NFC Championship Game against San Francisco, I wrote the following: “I wondered if Campbell’s aggressiveness would end up backfiring for his team. Aggressive play-calling is a way for underdogs to overachieve expectations. It made sense for Campbell to instill confidence in his team by taking these chances. These tactics also helped protect a suspect defense that was giving up plenty of points … The surprise value of the trick has limited returns … The seeds were planted for Detroit’s historic meltdown in the NFC Championship Game … (t)he play-calling got aggressive with a failed long pass to tight end Sam LaPorta setting up a third-and-five. The Lions chose to run the ball — as if it was two-down territory despite them being in field goal range. Then on fourth and a long one-yard, quarterback Jared Goff’s pass to Josh Reynolds was dropped. Granted a 31-10 lead after scoring a potential touchdown might have been the dagger. But neutralizing the Niners' initial field goal in the second half by matching those three points would have made it a 27-10 game with half the third quarter already burned. A three-possession lead would continue to squeeze the life out of a team and a fan base that had little to cheer about. Instead, San Francisco got the stop they needed … In a matter of a few moments, a game that seemed almost out of reach was now tied. And a franchise that had never reached the Super Bowl had suddenly blown a 17-point lead … (l)osing cultures don’t flip simply because someone declares it over. Winning cultures come from winning games — and good head coaches are stewards of their players in managing games to secure victories. In this regard, Campbell failed. His decision-making was, in fact, the act of a loser — one who thought seizing a 21-point lead was necessary. He communicated to his team that taking the easier 17-point lead was not going to be enough.”A year later, the play-calling in their first playoff game since that collapse against the 49ers was just a massive indictment that even my most cynical suspicions would never have suspected. Now both Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn have moved on to take head coaching jobs in the league. I’m not sure the loss of Johnson will be that big a deal since he was so anxious to become a head coach — as he did less than 24 hours later after the loss to the Commanders when he accepted Chicago’s offer. Johnson remarked that maximizing efficiency from the quarterback has become more important than limiting turnovers — a fascinating comment from a guy who chose to maximize quarterback efficiency by turning to a wide receiver to throw a critical fourth quarter pass. I’m not sure the offensive coaching staffs of the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs agree: The Eagles have not committed a turnover in five straight games and the Chiefs’ streak of eight straight games without turning the ball over got snapped in the AFC Championship Game with their one giveaway broke that streak. In a world where the final four teams all ranked in the top four in fourth down conversion success rates while being aggressive in their fourth down chances, perhaps turning the ball over is even more damaging since these teams are burning time off the clock which is making overall possessions scarcer and even more valuable. Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore made that exact point before the NFC Championship Game. As for Campbell, it was a season where he seemed to focus on a revenge tour against bad teams (Dallas, San Francisco) who were out of the playoff race and too concerned about putting up regular season banners as if his Lions were a team of destiny. Ask Josh Allen about teams of destiny. Heck, ask Buffalo Bills fans over the last 30 years if teams that get heartbroken in the postseason are promised anything the next season. As I wrote last year at this time, “perhaps Campbell will learn from his mistakes.” In hindsight, he did not successfully prepare his team to play their best football in the postseason. He also did not prepare his coaching staff and himself to coach their best games in the postseason. And now their window of opportunity to reach a Super Bowl may have just passed them by.Best of luck — Frank.

Fool's Gold: The Sam Darnold 2024 Season

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

I was worried about quarterback Sam Darnold going into the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 18 showdown with the Detroit Lions in game that would determine home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. He had been elevated into the MVP conversation that week after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. Darnold and the Vikings got exposed in that game as the Lions held them to only 262 yards of offense despite all their injuries on defense. Detroit won the game by a 31-9 score. There was a stretch in early November when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I wasn’t buying it. He threw only one interception against the Packers — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. That Week 18 game against the Lions was the biggest showcase in Darnold’s career — and he laid an egg by completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He was high on many of the incompletions. He missed open receivers — most notably Jordan Addison who head coach Kevin O’Connell schemed wide open inside the five-yard line in one of the Vikings’ several Red Zone drives that came up empty. I don’t think the problem was that Darnold was simply too amped up for this game. I think he is streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — and acts like he won the Super Bowl afterward like he did in a post-game locker room celebration after the win against Green Bay. But when things go bad as they did in that game at Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk — and what his midseason slump demonstrated to me is that he cannot simply flip the switch. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long which compounds the problem. His decision-making is a problem as well as he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. It sure helps having a wide receiver as talented as Justin Jefferson with his wide catch radius to bail out his quarterback when the throws are not on the money.Minnesota had a 10-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession this season. They only outgained their opponents by +11.3 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. They reminded me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams. My concerns about Darnold bore out in the Vikings’ opening-round exit against the Los Angeles Rams in their wildcard playoff game. Minnesota got upset by a 27-9 score. Darnold completed 25 of 40 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His stat line does not do justice to how underwhelming his play was in that game. Per ESPN Research on Twitter/X at halftime of that game: “Sam Darnold has 8 overthrows tonight, the second-most for a game in his career. The only other game with more was in Week 7 of 2019 when he had 12 while with the Jets vs. the Patriots. (You know what game that was.).”The game ESPN was referencing in the parenthetical was the one where Darnold later admitted to seeing “ghosts” in the pocket. I still think Darnold is one of the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL. Someone will sign him to a contract in free agency. But he cost himself perhaps as high as a $45 million per year contract with how he played in his most important two games of the season. Market demand may help him receive a contract offer similar to the one Baker Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay which got him $30 million per season. But certainly, the wild speculation in December that the Vikings might be willing to trade away rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy for draft capital in order to sign Darnold to a long-term contract was premature and an overreaction to short-term results. Imagine what O’Connell can do with McCarthy — who remains on a rookie deal which gives the team more salary cap flexibility. Minnesota’s signing of Daniel Jones once he was released by the New York Giants gave them some potential insurance at quarterback. Perhaps O’Connell can resurrect Jones’ career as he did Darnold’s. Stockpiling quarterback talent — especially at a low cost — is smart. Creating more viable options is savvy, especially with McCarthy coming off knee surgery. But this is likely McCarthy’s team moving forward.Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 5 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Tuesday, Dec 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.ARKANSAS STATE: Things hit rock bottom for head coach Butch Jones early last season when they got crushed by Oklahoma by a 73-0 score before losing to Memphis by a 37-3 score. The Red Wolves entered the season with an 11-26 record since Jones took over — so the former Tennessee head coach was already on the hot season coming into his fourth season with the program. But things changed after the season-ending injury to senior quarterback J.T. Shrout which created the opportunity for freshman Jaylen Raynor who would then average 231 passing Yards-Per-Game with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with an 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Red Wolves would become bowl-eligible the rest of the way before losing to Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl by a 21-19 score. Now 16 starters return this season as Jones looks to take this program to the next level after three straight top recruiting classes in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas State averaged 45.8 Points-Per-Game in their six wins by only 11.0 PPG in their seven losses. They need to get their defense playing better after ranking 102nd and 124th in the nation by allowing 30.4 PPG and 443.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They only held one opponent to less than 21 points. Six starters return on that side of the ball — and Jones added nine players in the transfer portal to improve the talent level on defense. BOISE STATE: The Broncos season turned around last year after third-year head coach Andy Avalos got fired on November 12th with the team underachieving expectations. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos took over as interim head coach and led the team to three straight wins including a dominant 44-20 win at UNLV to take the Mountain West Conference championship that eluded them the previous season despite a perfect 8-0 regular season mark. After a 35-22 loss against UCLA in the LA Bowl, Boise State finished with an 8-6 record. Seventeen starters are back from that group — and Danielson added some impactful transfers. The offense is led by junior running back Ashton Jeanty who rushed for 1347 yards en route to winning the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year Award. The defense has 11 starters back along with 16 of the 19 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. But while that unit was young last season, they ranked 100th in the nation by allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and ranked 71st in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. BOWLING GREEN: The Bowling Green administration was finally rewarded with their patience in head coach Scott Loeffler as the team seemed to have made a breakthrough in the second half of last season. The Falcons won five of their last six games before losing to Minnesota by a 30-24 score in the Quick Lane Bowl. Loeffler’s teams only posted a 7-22 record in his first three seasons — and the 0-5 campaign in the 2020 COVID year in his second season may have significantly derailed the rebuilding effort he had planned. But Bowling Green went to their first bowl game since 2015 two years which gave Loeffler the benefit of an extra few weeks of practice. Now 15 starters return from last year’s 7-6 squad — and Loeffler added seven transfers on the defensive side of the football. Five of their six losses came against teams who combined to produce a 59-10 record including the national champion Michigan Wolverines who Loeffler conceded really beat them up physically early in the season. Sixth-year senior Connor Bazelak returns at quarterback after making big strides in the second half of the season. The former Indiana and Missouri quarterback improved after trusting his offensive system more and limiting his turnovers. The defense was aggressive and opportunistic — they led the nation in forced turnovers and ranked 16th in sack rate. BUFFALO: After a 3-9 season last year, third-year head coach Maurice Linguist bailed the program to become the co-defensive coordinator at Alabama. Pete Lembo comes in as the new head coach with 15 years of head coaching experience at Lehigh, Elon, and then Ball State for five seasons where he compiled a 33-29 record. Since leaving the Cardinals, he has been an in-demand special teams coordinator. He inherits ten starters and added at least a dozen players in the transfer portal. The defense should be in decent shape after the Bulls ranked 53rd in the nation by allowing 367.1 total Yards-Per-Game. But the offense only scored 20.9 Points-Per-Game and 318.8 total YPG, ranking 109th and 113th, and only three starters return. CALIFORNIA: The Golden Bears rallied when their record fell to 3-6 by winning three straight games to become bowl-eligible before losing to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl by a 34-14 score. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from that team as they begin their inaugural season in the ACC. California was outgained by -82 net Yards-Per-Game in the last season of the Pac-12. For the second-straight season, the defense did not play up to Wilcox’s expectations as they rank 111th and 102nd in the nation by surrendering 32.8 Points-Per-Game and 414.1 YPG. The offense will have their fourth new offensive coordinator in Wilcox’s eight seasons with offensive line coach and run game coordinator Mike Bloesch taking over for Jake Spavital who took the same job at Baylor. Sophomore Fernando Mendoza returns at quarterback after taking the starting job after the first month of the season — but he will be challenged by senior North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers who passed for 3382 yards with 29 touchdown passes and only five interceptions last season. Running back Jaydn Ott is an All-American candidate after rushing for 1305 yards and 12 touchdowns in his sophomore season. Wilcox has gotten more aggressive in the transfer portal with an Admissions Office that has been more cooperative regarding their rigorous academic standards. Despite being a West Coast team playing many of their games on the East Coast, Wilcox reeled in his best recruiting class in four years. CLEMSON: Head coach Dabo Swinney continues to “get off my lawn” regarding the transfer portal with him bringing only two backup quarterbacks in the last six seasons. Clemson has a solid NIL program but it is dedicated to retaining rather than adding players. Perhaps Swinney is crazy like a fox in the positive impact this has on the culture within his program. On the other hand, the Tigers lost 12 in the transfer portal in the offseason and bypassed taking advantage of the selective targeting of specific positional needs that other potential playoff contenders engage in. Swinney is banking on his recruiting, nurturing, and coaching up, which will put his collective roster in a position to compete for a national championship when the playoffs arrive — and he just has to make sure his team is still in the tournament. But the defense lost five players to the NFL in the meantime and only returned five starters. Junior quarterback Cade Klubnik completed 64% of his passes for 2844 yards last season — but he threw nine interceptions and failed to close the deal in the fourth quarter in losses to Florida State, Miami (FL), and North Carolina State. On one hand, perhaps the Tigers are the ultimate “buy-low” stock according to Swinney after his team won the first down battle by a combined 94-60 margin in their four losses last season. Or perhaps the fumbles and missed Red Zone field goal attempts in those games were just a harbinger of things to come for this program. Klubnik only ranked 80th in Quarterback Rating -- so he is either going to break out this season or fail to fulfill the promise of his five-star rating coming out of high school. FLORIDA: Head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat after two straight losing campaigns that have resulted in an 11-14 record with the Gators. In their five-game losing streak to close last season, they gave up 38.2 Points-Per-Game. Fourteen starters return including senior quarterback Graham Mertz who bypassed the transfer portal after his first year in Gainesville — but he may be challenged by fellow former five-star recruit D.J. Lagway entering the program. Before getting too aggressive about fading Florida, remember the size that still exists on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Three starters return on the defensive line. The top seven returnees on the offensive line have an average size of 6’6 and weigh 326 pounds. FRESNO STATE: Jeff Tedford stepped down as head coach of this program in mid-June due to ongoing health issues. Tedford is a fantastic head coach who led the Bulldogs to a Mountain West Conference championship in his third season here in 2019 before stepping down in the offseason because of health reasons. He was rehired for the 2022 season. He did not coach the New Mexico Bowl last year because of health issues. Assistant head coach and linebackers coach Tim Skipper was the interim head coach in Fresno State’s 37-10 win against New Mexico State — and he has been tapped as the interim head for this season. Thirteen starters return from that group headlined by junior Mikey Keene who won the MVP award for that bowl game by completing 31 of 39 passes for 390 yards with three touchdowns in the air and another on the ground. In their four losses, they failed to score at least 20 points — so this is an area of concern. The defense has taken a step back as well after the 23.5 Points-Per-Game they allowed were the most they surrendered since 2017. The Bulldogs’ defense fell to 79th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. They gave up 30 points six times — and they ranked 97th in the nation by giving up 166.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The players responded and played great for Skipper in the bowl game — but changing head coaches in June is far from ideal.GEORGIA: The Bulldogs’ 27-24 upset loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship kept them from attempting to become the first college football team to pull off a three-peat since Minnesota in the 1930s. Since November of 2020, Georgia has a 46-2 record — and both those two losses were against the Crimson Tide. Sixteen starters return led by senior quarterback Carson Beck who ranked fourth in the nation by completing 72.4% of his passes and ranked third with 3941 passing yards. Beck must find new favorite targets with tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey off to the NFL — but head coach Kirby Smart brought in three transfers to compete with an already talented if younger wide receiver and tight end rooms. Four starters return on the offensive for a group that might be the best in the country. Seven starters return on defense including eight of the 12 players in the front seven who logged-in at least 200 snaps. As usual, this side of the football has to replace players who are now playing on Sundays — but considering that only four are gone to the NFL with none of them getting drafted in the first round indicates this group could be quite good. Smart did lose three starters in the secondary to the NFL — but what this unit lacks in experience it makes up for in young blue-chip talent waiting for their opportunity. GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles return 13 starters from a team that lost their final five games of the season after a 41-21 loss to Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. After two straight 6-7 seasons, there is unrest with this program entering the third-year with former USC head coach Clay Helton leading the program. The transition from a spread triple-option offense to an Air Raid passing attack has gone about as well as possible — although their 31 turnovers last season were tied with Nebraska for most in the nation. But the other side of the ball continues to be the concern after Georgia Southern surrendered 30.5 Points-Per-Game last season after giving up 31.6 and 31.4 PPG in the prior two years. INDIANA: Tom Allen was relieved of his head coaching duties after seven seasons since the Hoosiers compiled just a 10-26 record in the last three years after their surprising 6-2 mark in the COVID 2020 campaign. They have lost 24 of their last 27 games against Big Ten rivals. In comes in new head coach Curt Cignetti who may be trying to transform Indiana into James Madison West with 13 players joining him. The Dukes posted a 52-9 record in his tenure there including a 19-4 mark the last two seasons. In all, Cignetti brought in 30 transfers to join nine returning starters. The defense lost 14 players including five starters to the transfer portal but Cignetti brought six players on that side of the ball from James Madison including four who were All-Sun Belt Conference award winners. On offense, Cignetti’s initial priority was improving the speed and athleticism of that group — and he added eight players in the transfer portal at the skill positions. The wide receiver room has the potential to be one of the most dynamic groups in the nation for former Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The three-year starter for the Bobcats looks to rebound from a down season last year — but he won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year two years ago. He has a 21-11 career record as a starter. With so many new players in Bloomington, establishing a winning culture is a concern. But Cignetti has never had a losing season in his 13 years as a head coach — and as he tells recruits: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.” KANSAS STATE: After overseeing a 12-11 mark in his first two seasons, head coach Chris Klieman enters his sixth year with the Wildcats with a 27-13 record in the last three seasons to firmly establish them as one of the teams to beat in the Big 12 conference. Kansas State finished 9-4 last season after their 28-19 victory against North Carolina State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Only 12 starters return from that group. The defense should continue to be good with eight starters back from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Five of the top six tacklers are back as well as 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense experienced some turnover in the offseason with offensive coordinator Collin Klein taking the same job at Texas A&M and quarterback Will Howard transferring to Ohio State. Klieman hired former Texas Tech and Utah State head coach Matt Wells and elevated offensive line coach Conor Riley to serve as co-offensive coordinators. And don’t tell Buckeye Nation that sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson was probably going to beat Howard out for the starting quarterback job anyway. Johnson is one of the most prized recruits in the history of the program with his dual-threat skills and should bring more of a passing threat to this offense than Howard or even when Klein when quarterbacking this team over a decade ago. A looming problem could be their inexperienced offensive line that lost three multi-year starters from last year’s team. MISSISSIPPI: After a 10-3 season two years ago, the Rebels took a step back to an 8-5 record in head coach Lane Kiffin’s fourth season with the program. Such are the swings when a program becomes so dependent on the transfer portal. But Kiffin was able to build off a team with 14 returning starters and use the portal again last offseason to build a roster that would produce the first 11-win season in program history last year. Ole Miss finished with an 11-2 record after a statement victory and offensive explosion against a good Penn State defense in their 38-25 win in the Peach Bowl. Yet a 52-17 loss to Georgia in a game where the Bulldogs rushed for over 300 yards demonstrated to Kiffin that there remains a significant talent deficit in their program. The “Portal King” used the 11-win season to get aggressive in the transfer portal once again. Another large group of incoming players including eight who were former 4 or 5-star players coming out of high school was enough for it to be graded the number one transfer class in the nation. Kiffin’s top goal was to get bigger, stronger, and more athletic on his front seven after the Georgia debacle. Five of the five and four-star transfers were for the defense — and the Rebels will likely have six transfers in their starting defense to complement the six returning starters that are back. The offense lost two-time first-team All-SEC running back Quinshon Judkins who transferred to Ohio State — but Kiffin added multiple running backs, wide receivers, and offensive linemen to upgrade the talent on the roster. Senior quarterback Jaxson Dart bypassed the NFL to return after passing for 3364 yards and adding 381 rushing yards. Entering his third year as the starter, the former USC transfer threw 23 touchdown passes and lowered his interception count from 11 to just five last season. The problem with bringing in so many new players year after year is that building a culture is not a given and can be volatile. But culture is not enough to beat Georgia and compete for a national championship. Both lines look significantly better on paper. Kiffin is a quarterback whisperer. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding is one of the best in the business — and he will be tasked to see that if building an elite front seven is too difficult at a place like Ole Miss, can one be rented?NORTH TEXAS: The Mean Green met even the wildest of expectations on the offensive side of the ball under first-year head coach Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple and former head coach at Incarnate Work oversaw an offense that ranked sixth in the nation by generating 495.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Morris deploys a run-first philosophy in an Air Raid scheme — North Texas was second in the FBS by averaging 191.2 rushing YPG. But the other side of the ball was a nightmare as they ranked 128th and 130th in the country by surrendering 37.1 Points-Per-Game and 476.4 total YPG. Nine starters return from the 5-7 team that failed to qualify for a bowl game. The Mean Green were then ravaged in the transfer portal with more than two dozen players exiting the program including most of their productive players on offense. Rogers responded by bringing in more than 40 players including 20 from Power Four conferences with an emphasis on improving the overall size of the team. The defense should be better under second-year defensive coordinator Matt Caponi since things cannot get worse. Morris lost starting quarterback Chandler Rogers who transferred to California. He brought in junior Chandler Morris from TCU to compete for the job this year. The skill position rooms have depth — but the offensive line needs to improve which is why Morris brought in five transfers. NORTHERN ILLINOIS: The Huskies stumbled out of the gate last season with four losses in their first five games, but they won six of their last eight games culminating in their 21-19 win against Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl. Head coach Thomas Hammock lost 18 players in the transfer portal — but 16 starters return to lead an experienced roster featuring 30 seniors. Hammock has created a physical identity for his team with a run-first offense that often deploys either two tight ends (12) or two running back (21) personnel. Replacing quarterback Rocky Lombardi will be a challenge — the former Michigan State transfer led them to their MAC championship in 2021 — but he only completed 58.9% of his passes in his Northern Illinois career so there is room for the passing game to improve. The defense returns eight starters from a group that ranked 23rd in the nation by giving up only 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Hammock oversees a program that does a great job of overseeing the high school talent they recruit — so the losses in the transfer portal are not lethal. The Huskies were just 5-3 in conference play last year but they outgained these opponents by +79 YPG. OHIO: The Bobcats enjoyed their second-straight ten-win season after finishing 10-3 last year with their 41-21 victory against Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. But perhaps no other team has lost more players. Fourth-year head coach Tim Albin lost 34 players either to graduation or the transfer portal. Even more demoralizing for the Ohio faithful is that they have lost 21 players either to the NFL or via transfer to a bigger college football conference. Albin responded by adding 17 transfer players — but nine of these players were from the FCS level or lower so it is fair to say that they are losing this war of predators. The defense replaces nine of their top 12 tacklers and eight of the 13 players who logged-in at least 300 snaps. But Albin does return six players from that unit who got at least one start as a sophomore last season. The other side of the ball may be trickier to replace after losing their top six receivers, running back Sieh Bangura in the transfer portal to Minnesota and quarterback Kurtis Rourke in the transfer portal to Indiana. Rourke was a three-year starter who won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. If that was not enough, Albin also has new coordinators with Brian Smith running the offense and John Hauser overseeing the defense.OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes are going all-in this season to win the National Championship. Four players on defense bypassed the NFL to return for the chance to not only hoist a trophy but to also beat Michigan for the first time in their careers. Head coach Ryan Day also brought in four of the biggest prizes in the transfer portal. The defense gets even more talent with sophomore and second-team All-American Caleb Downs coming over from Alabama. He joins a unit that returns nine starters and ten of the 14 players who logged in 200 to more snaps that ranked second and third in the nation by only giving up 11.2 Points-Per-Game and 265.4 total Yards-Per-Game. First-team All-Big Ten running back TreVeyon Henderson is joined by Quinshon Judkins who was a two-time first-team All-SEC running back from Ole Miss. The offensive line was a weak link last season in both run blocking and pass protection. Senior center Seth McLaughlin comes in from Alabama. But the most important transfer will be dual-threat quarterback Will Howard who was a four-year starter at Kansas State. Day is also relinquishing the play-calling duties with his former mentor and NFL head coach Chip Kelly leaving UCLA and the headaches of running a college program to simply coach football and run an offense. Twenty players are on the roster with at least 12 collegiate starts in their career. But pressure comes with the sky-high expectations. The offensive line remains a concern — and so too is the quarterback. Howard was losing reps to Avery Johnson at Kansas State last year and he struggled with his deep passes in spring practice with the Buckeyes. He only completed 61% of his passes last season while throwing 10 interceptions. With Kyle McCord transferring to Syracuse, he has become the scapegoat for the loss at Michigan — but there is a good argument to be had that he is the better quarterback over Howard. He completed 65.5% of his passes with only six interceptions last season. McCord ranked seventh in the nation in Total Quarterback Rating while Howard ranked 23rd in that metric. PENN STATE: Another year for head coach James Franklin in Happy Valley and another ten-win campaign for the Nittany Lions for the fifth time in the last seven non-COVID seasons. But once again, Penn State fell short against Michigan and Ohio State — and then they lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl by a 35-28 score. The number one reason why the Nittany Lions cannot crash through this ceiling is their lack of elite future NFL talent at the skill positions. They only had 47 gains of more than 20 yards last season, ranking 97th in the nation. They only averaged 1.5 plays per game of 30 or more yards, ranking 110th in the nation. This lack of explosiveness on offense is simply putting too much pressure on the quarterback. Former five-star recruit Drew Allar threw 25 touchdown passes and just two interceptions last season — but against the Wolverines and Buckeyes, he completed only 28 of 64 passes for a mere 261 passing yards while appearing gun-shy to throw the ball down the field to attack the opposing defense. The wide receiver room continues to lack play-makers who can separate. In theory, the running back room is dynamic behind the one-two punch off juniors Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen — but those two rushers went from generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry as freshmen to 4.8 YPC in their sophomore seasons last year. The offensive line replaces three starters to the NFL. Franklin did attempt to address the explosiveness problem in the offseason by poaching Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to run the offense. The defense should remain outstanding with seven starters back from the unit that ranked third and second in the nation by allowing only 13.5 Points-Per-Game and 247.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen takes over as defensive coordinator for Manny Diaz who took the Duke head coaching job. PITTSBURGH: In my preseason preview of the Panthers last season, I wondered if head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program after posting 20 victories in the previous two seasons — or was this a football team that will take a step or two back this season? After suffering their most losses since the 1998 season with a 3-9 mark last year, the answer is clear. The offense hit rock bottom by scoring only 20.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 317.9 total Yards-Per-Game, ranking 114th in the nation in both categories. The defense ranked 73rd in the nation by giving up 27.3 PPG — and their SP+ defensive ranking of 59th was their lowest in five seasons using the metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Narduzzi addressed the offense by hiring 31-year-old Western Carolina offensive coordinator Kade Bell to run the offense. Bell will deploy a fast-tempo system with spread principles. It remains to be seen if Narduzzi will give Bell the freedom to implement his intended system or if his defensive principles will demand that some of those tactics get reined in. Up-tempo schemes tend to put additional pressure on their own defense since these offenses tend not to be on the field as much. Only two starters return on defense after two leaders from that unit left the program for the transfer portal in spring practice. That is not a ringing endorsement regarding where the program is headed. Narduzzi brought in nine transfer players to the defense including five on the defensive line — but with the secondary losing three NFL-caliber players to graduation, it is difficult not to see that this program is taking two steps back for every step forward. RUTGERS: After overseeing just a 12-22 record in his first three seasons back as the Scarlet Knights head coach, Greg Schiano’s team broke out with a 7-6 record after a 31-24 win against Miami (FL) in the Pinstripe Bowl to register their first winning season since 2014. There were concerns about Schiano’s culture a season ago at this time, but a year later sees him finally beginning to re-establish the roster depth he fostered in his first 11-year stint with the program — and recruiting is starting to take off. Rutgers brings a defense-first mentality to their games — they ranked 16th in the nation by allowing only 313.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Scarlet Knights return four of the five starters in their secondary that helped them rank 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 176.3 passing YPG — and they ranked 17th in Opponent Yards per Dropback Allowed. That group does lose cornerback Max Melton who got drafted in the second round of the NFL draft. But while the run defense ranked 41st by giving up 137.8 rushing YPG, the deeper metrics exposed them as ranking 101st in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also ranked 101st in Sack Rate. The defensive front is undersized but one of the most experienced units in the nation. The front seven features three fifth-year seniors and one sixth-year senior. Eight starters return on defense — and another eight starters are back on offense including three starters on the offensive line. That line has four seniors this season and returns 48 of the 65 starts from their 13 games last season. Under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, Rutgers ran the ball 61.9% of the time which was the eighth-highest amount in the FBS. While this physical run-first approach allowed them to be flat-track bullies against lesser competition, the Scarlet Knights only managed to score 8.4 Points-Per-Game in their five games against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Schiano addressed the problems in the passing game by bringing in senior quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis who previously played for Ciarocca at Minnesota. The “Greek Rifle” has 17 career starts after starting in 12 games for the Golden Gophers last season. SAN JOSE STATE: The new head coach is Ken Niumatalolo who previously served as the head coach at Navy for 15 seasons. He replaces Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. This Spartans team lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal — so things are all but starting over at San Jose State. While Niumatalolo’s Navy teams deployed the spread triple option rushing attack, that will not be the offense the Spartans operate. Instead, Niumatalolo hired Texas State passing coordinator Chris Stutzmann as his offensive coordinator. The former Hawai’i wide receiver will install an offense based on Run-and-Shot and Air Raid principles. Niumatalolo was able to retain defensive coordinator Derrick Odum who returns for his seventh season with the program. After surrendering 39.8 Points-Per-Game in their first six games, San Jose State held their final six Mountain West Conference opponents to just 17.8 PPG. They finished with a 7-6 record after a 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina in the Hawai’i Bowl.SOUTH FLORIDA: The Bulls experienced an instant and incredible turnaround last season in the first year under new head coach Alex Golesh by posting a 7-6 record that culminated in a triumphant 45-0 blowout victory against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. They also played Alabama close in a 17-3 loss. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. The former Tennessee offensive coordinator installed a simple but effective up-tempo offense that ranked 17th in the nation by generating 451.6 Yards-Per-Game. The South Florida offense led the nation in total plays per game and ranked fourth in total drives per game. One of Golesh’s first good decisions was to name redshirt freshman Byrum Brown as his starting quarterback. Brown responded by completing 64.9% of his passes for 3292 yards and adding another 809 yards on the ground. If he can improve his down-the-field accuracy, he will become one of the most complete quarterbacks in the nation. Eighteen starters return to what will be one of the most experienced teams in the FBS. Eight starters are back on defense along with 10 of their 14 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. That unit needs to improve after ranking 115th in the nation by surrendering 432.5 total YPG — but shutting out the Orange and holding the Crimson Tide to 17 points demonstrates their potential. TENNESSEE: The Volunteers' defense took a big step in the right direction last season by holding their opponents to 335.2 total Yards-Per-Game which ranked 32nd in the nation and represented a -70.1 net YPG improvement to what they surrendered the previous season. While the pass defense ranked in the middle of the pack by ranking 64th in the nation by giving up 221.5 passing, that was still a significant improvement from the previous season when they ranked 126th by giving up 289.5 passing YPG. But fourth-year defensive coordinator Tim Banks faces a big challenge after losing 11 players from the secondary either to the NFL or the transfer portal. But Banks claims he may have the best defensive line in the nation — and with a rotation that goes ten deep, he might be right. James Pearce, Jr. anchors the unit — and the first-team All-SEC defensive end may be one of the top ten picks in the next NFL draft. The ability and the willingness to rotate these defensive linemen should give Tennessee a big edge late in games. Freshman Nico Iamaleava is probably an upgrade at quarterback over Joe Milton. The former five-star recruit was the MVP in the Citrus Bowl after accounting for four touchdowns. But the question remains if this program can take the next step by staying competitive with the best teams in the country. They lost all three of their games last year against teams that finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings system — and the average loss in those three games was by -24 Points-Per-Game. TEXAS: The Longhorns return 15 starters from the team that won the Big 12 Championship and reached the College Football Playoffs where they lost to Washington by a 37-31 score in the Semifinals. Head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in another 25 new plays to this group with the sky-high expectation that they play for the National Championship this season. Quarterback Quinn Ewers bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season and third year as the starter — but sophomore Arch Manning looms behind him. Ewers completed 69.0% of his passes for 3479 yards. While he is very accurate with intermediate routes, he is not as much of a threat in the vertical passing game down the field. He also struggles with timing routes and does not throw his targets open. Six other starters are back on offense including four offensive linemen in what could be the best offensive line in the nation. Eight starters are back on defense — but their pass defense must improve. Texas ranked 113th by surrendering 254.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and six of their opponents passed for at least 300 yards against them. Only one starter is back in the secondary with Sarkisian hitting the transfer portal to improve the talent. I do worry about Sarkisian’s temperament to lead a team to a national title. He has always been anointed as the Chosen One regarding the next wunderkind offensive mind and head coach — and he always gets another chance to fulfill this perception of potential. The team motto he installed for this team was “obsessed” — and I’m just not sure that is the healthiest of mindsets to prepare a team to handle adversity. The fact that he is a recovering alcoholic makes it even worse. Yo, “obsession” is not a healthy characteristic! Players and coaches can commit to the work ethic necessary to put the team in a position to win a national championship without it becoming (and glorifying it) an obsession. Does the zeal to become “obsessed” indirectly put too much pressure on this team? TOLEDO: The Rockets return eight starters from the group that went undefeated in the Mid-American Conference regular season before getting upset in the MAC Championship Game by a 23-14 score to Miami (OH). Head coach Jason Candle’s team won the MAC Championship the year before — and they did finish 11-3 last year despite then losing to Wyoming Bowl in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score with a depleted roster. Candle is doing a great job after eight seasons with the program — and the Rockets have not had a losing season since 2009. His ability to identify high school talent and then develop it in his program has been his calling card. This skill will be challenged this season with only eight starters back from his 11-3 club. He lost starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone in the transfer portal — and the offensive line must be completely rebuilt after losing all five starters from last season. The secondary also lost cornerbacks Quinton Mitchell and Chris McDonald with both graduating — Mitchell was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and McDonald was an All-MAC awardee. TULANE: After the Green Wave went 23-5 in the last two seasons including a victory against USC in the Cotton Bowl two years ago, Willie Fritz took the head coaching job at Houston. But Tulane managed to bring in another excellent head coach in Jon Sumrall who posted a 23-4 record in his two seasons at Troy. He inherits 15 starters — and he was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding 11 additional players on offense and another 10 players on defense. Of particular note are the three blue-chippers he brought in offense. Quarterback Ty Thompson was a former five-star recruit at Oregon who played behind Bo Nix last season. Two dynamic wide receivers join him: Mario Williams from USC and Shazz Preston from Alabama. Because former Troy offensive coordinator Jordan Craddock likes to deploy two-tight end 12 personnel, tight end Alex Bauman bypassed the transfer window to return to Tulane for his junior season. UTSA: The Frank Harris era finally comes to a close for the Roadrunners after the quarterback graduated after being in the program for seven seasons to become the best football player in school history. Injuries and the COVID hardship year account for the seven-year career — he led UTSA to 32 victories in the last three seasons, including two Conference USA Championship Game wins. The Roadrunners finished 9-4 last year after their 35-17 victory against Marshall. Fourteen starters return. Head coach Jeff Traylor did lose some important players in the transfer portal, but he was aggressive in filling those holes, including several former blue-chip recruits from Power Four conferences. This could be his deepest roster yet in his five seasons with the program. VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies return 19 starters from the team that finished with five wins in their last seven games to end with a 7-6 record. They bear Tulane by a 41-20 score in the Military Bowl. Enthusiasm is high, with junior quarterback Kyron Drones returning after igniting the team in the second half of the season when he was inserted into the starting lineup. Virginia Tech outgained their ACC opponents by +107 Yards-Per-Game. In their final seven games with Drones under center, they scored 34.7 Points-Per-Game. The defense returns eight starters from a group that ranked fourth in sacks per dropback rate and fourth by holding their opponents to 168.8 passing Yards-Per-Game. WEST VIRGINIA: Neal Brown was on the hot seat last year going into his fifth season as the head coach of the Mountaineers. West Virginia had a 22-25 record in his first four seasons. With his fourth offensive coordinator in his tenure, he took responsibility for that side of the ball by taking over the play-calling. Armed with the knowledge that his team was 18-4 if they ran for at least 100 yards (3-21 if they failed to reach 100 rushing yards), Brown committed to a ground-and-pound identity with a Thunder and Lightning duo at running back. C.J. Donaldson and Jaheim White combined to rush for 1570 yards and 24 touchdowns. The Mountaineers won five of their final six games, including a 30-10 victory against North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl to finish 9-4. Brown was given a multi-year extension. Eight starters are back on offense including both those running backs and senior dual-threat quarterback. Brown has struggled with how he has handled the transfer portal in the past — and he changed his tactics by focusing more on player retention and using the portal to address specific problems. His attention was on the secondary in the offseason as he brought in six transfers including five cornerbacks to bolster his pass defense. They join five returning starters on that side of the ball. The roster looks better but the Big 12 schedule is brutal. WESTERN KENTUCKY: Head coach Tyson Helton returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 after rallying from 28 points down to beat Old Dominion in overtime in the Famous Tastery Bowl. Nine starters are back on offense but that unit moves on from two-year starter Austin Reed who got drafted into the NFL. Helton brought in junior T.J. Finley from Texas State to compete for the starting quarterback job. The former Auburn signal-caller passed for 3439 yards with 24 touchdown passes and eight interceptions for the Bobcats last season. But he will have to beat out redshirt sophomore Caden Veltkamp who threw for 383 yards and five touchdown passes in the bowl game. The other side of the beak continues to be the problem for the Hilltoppers after they ranked 108th in the nation by giving up 419.7 total Yards-Per-Game. That unit lost nine of the 16 players who logged in at least 350 snaps last year. Helton hit the transfer portal by bringing in another five players to try to improve the talent level on defense. Helton has been very reliant on using the transfer portal but he perhaps has become too dependent on short-term one-year fixes. After leading Conference USA with a +136 net YPG mark, they only outgained conference rivals by +13 net YPG last season. Best of luck -- Frank.

The Second Half Turnaround of the Baltimore Ravens Defense

Saturday, Dec 28, 2024

The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game going into Week 17 — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now.Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore had played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17 going into their Christmas Day game on the road in Houston against the Texans.The Ravens may have played their best defensive game in the season in our NFL Total of the Month for that contest. Baltimore held the Houston offense scoreless in a 31-2 victory. The Texans managed only ten first downs and gained only 185 yards of offense. Quarterback C.J. Stroud completed only 17 of 31 passes for 185 yards before he got subbed out of the game. Moving forward, with Hamilton playing at free safety and Pees providing his insight on a weekly basis, this Ravens team may have one of the best defenses in the league — despite what the season-long statistics may suggest. Best of luck — Frank.

When Handicapping Instincts Trump the Analytics: Two Case Studies

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

Successful sports handicapping requires not simply assessing teams but analyzing how your assessment of a team relates to the lines put out by the bookmakers. One of the challenges in addressing this conundrum relates as when to rely on the deeper analytics to drive a conclusion versus trusting one’s instincts from years of experience reacting to oddsmakers posted numbers. Two illustrative examples of this took place during a two-day span in the NFL this month.The Detroit Lions traveled to Houston to play the Texans as a 3.5-point road favorite for Sunday Night Football on November 10th. I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by Week 10 of this NFL season considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. Those caveats aside, we may have been seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presented us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic was not enough for me to endorse the Texans in that contest. The second factor that persuaded me was simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions were thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown the previous week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and that they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit were only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game at the time. The Lions led the NFL in net turnover margin — and they were averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That dynamic was simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit had forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I didn’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we were catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets the previous week by +29 net yards despite a 21-13 loss. The Texans had not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they had then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expected wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field for this game. I expected plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers were generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry against them at the time. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career before that game, he enjoyed a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston was 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They were outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans were holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They ranked second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home which was more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generated on the road going into that game. Houston raced out to a 23-7 lead going into halftime of that game. While they did not score in the second half and lost the game by a 26-23 score, they still covered the +3.5 point spread. The next day for Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Miami Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite. This was a fishy line. Miami was on a three-game losing streak and has won only two games this season — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision. The Rams were riding a three-game winning streak and were getting healthy on both sides of the ball, especially with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau back from their injuries. The Dolphins were crushing their bettors this season — they were getting outscored by -8.2 Points-Per-Game relative to the point spread. The betting public was all over the Rams that night. At DraftKings, 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are on Los Angeles — and yet most books including DraftKings had not even moved the Rams to a field goal favorite? I smelled a rat — and I decided to fade the public. I saw enough to justify this decision. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of his 28 passes last week. They outgained the Bills by +48 net yards while generating 373 total yards of offense. In the previous two weeks since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol, their offense ranked second in Expected Points Added per play on offense. The Dolphins defense had played a bit better than expected as well. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They were only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they were holding their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami came into the game desperate — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. I appreciated that the Los Angeles offense was much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were healthy and on the field. But the Rams were still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. The Rams got outgained by -58 net yards in their win against the Seahawks the previous week — but a +2 net turnover margin including a 103-yard interception return for a touchdown helped them overcome that yardage deficit. It was telling that Los Angeles had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November.Miami raced out to a 10-6 lead at halftime and went on to win the game by a 23-15 score to pull off the upset victory. Proving once again, sometimes the number presented by the bookies tells a more compelling story than the narrative that the deeper analytics appear to be telling us. Best of luck — Frank.

Assessing Stanford Football After Year Two of the Troy Taylor Tenure

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The Stanford Cardinal finished 3-9 in the second season under head coach Troy Taylor after their 34-31 loss at San Jose State on Friday, November 29th. While this team seemed to be better this season in their first year in the ACC, the results do not do much to back that claim up.Last year was destined to be a trying season for Taylor’s first season as he was taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. A 3-9 campaign ensued with Stanford getting outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. But there were bright spots. The Cardinal pulled off upsets against Colorado and Washington State. Dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels showed flashes with 11 touchdown passes. Sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanor caught 62 balls for 1013 receiving yards in Taylor’s fast-paced stretch Air Raid offense. With four starters back, Stanford may have had the most improved offensive line in the country. But the defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG. Fifteen of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return with the hope that a second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April will lead to a significant growth spurt. Taylor has improved recruiting — they ranked 31st and 27th respectively by 247 Sports and Rivals for their 2024 class. He is not attempting to take shortcuts in the transfer portal (which simply may not be an option for a school like Stanford) so things remain a long-term project. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter the previous week against California and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. They entered their final game of the season against the Spartans surrendering 412.3 total YPG which resulted in 39.3 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they were giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They ranked 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. San Jose State gained 443 yards against them with their defense continuing to be a problem. Spartans’ quarterback Walker Eget completed 33 of 49 passes for 385 yards with four touchdown passes and an interception in that game. The previous week against UNLV, Eget only completed 4 of 22 passes for 81 yards albeit in rain and sloppy conditions. Stanford's offense did play better in their final game in 2024. After going into that contest scoring only 19.2 PPG on the road, they gained 379 yards with Daniels leading the offense down the field midway in the fourth quarter to take a 31-27 lead. He completed 26 of 40 passes for 252 yards with one touchdown pass — but he did throw three interceptions. He added another 91 yards on the ground with another touchdown. But the defense could not stop the Spartans who scored the winning touchdown with just under two minutes to go in the game. The Cardinal offense had not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they had failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They overcame those low standards against San Jose State. They were converting on just 34% of their third downs going into that game. They ranked 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss — but they only gave up one sack in their final game against a Spartans team that ranked 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss going into that game. Optimists can point to Stanford’s offensive numbers against San Jose State along with their general improvement on defense to conclude that the Cardinal is moving in the right direction under Taylor. Yet after two straight 3-9 campaigns, these are baby steps, at best. Stanford would probably be ill-advised to let Taylor go after only two seasons given his commitment to rebuilding this program with a strong foundation rather than quick-fix gambles. But he probably needs to see the Cardinal make significant strides on the field in his third season next year. UPDATE: The day after I wrote this article, Stanford hired their legendary quarterback Andrew Luck as their first football general manager. Such a splashy hire is a strong signal they they remain serious about rebuilding their football program. Best of luck — Frank.

I Remember Halloween! (and not fading 2-6 NFL favorites hosting a 6-2 visitor)

Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

It is not often teams with a 2-6 record are favored against teams with a 6-2 record -- but that was the case on Halloween with the New York Jets favored by less than a field goal against the Houston Texans. This was a clear Pros versus Joes game with the supposed "sharps" on the Jets with the public taking the team with the far better record and the better quarterback (and, yes, in 2024, C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback versus Aaron Rodgers).I endorsed the Jets in this situation -- and, no, this is not my wink-wink message for someone to call the police because I have been kidnapped by saying something very much out of character. I have been quite skeptical about this New York Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But they are favored tonight for a reason I do not invoke empirical situational angles often in my (long) Reports — but I do track this information in my database. In the last 20 years in the NFL games played in October, November, or December, there have been only eight teams who were not winning more than 25% of their games favored against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Those favorites with bad records have a 5-2-1 ATS mark going into tonight’s game. New York held the Patriots to just 247 yards last week and did not commit a turnover despite losing that game. In that “accomplishment”, they became the first team since 2013 to lose an NFL game despite holding their opponent to under 250 yards and not committing a turnover in that game. Before that game last Sunday, NFL teams who did not commit a turnover and did not allow 250 or more yards were 220-0 straight up. I do not like the chemistry and cohesion of this team at all — but perhaps that there are now 2-6 on the season, it fits their character to finally pull out a win in prime-time on Halloween night. The pressure was off at this point. They are not going to make the playoffs since that would require them to most likely reel off eight wins in their final nine games. They have an 0-4 record in games decided by six points or less. And now they were playing a wounded Texans team that is without C.J. Stroud’s top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. Now Houston goes back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. The Texans were getting outscored on the road by -1.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Jets were outscoring their opponents at home by +5.6 PPG and winning the yardage battle by +119.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Sure enough, the Jets found a way to win the game by a 21-13 score. As is kind of suspected, strange events were in store for this game played on Halloween night. Rookie Malachi Corley seemed to score the opening touchdown of the game -- but he decided to drop the ball before he crossed into the end zone with the ball bouncing in the end zone. I did my own research on this and it turns out that rather than the Jets scoring a touchdown, the result was a touchdown. If you want one play to define this team's season, this was it. But later, the Texans took three points off the board midway through when New York committed a personal foul on the field goal attempt by putting a knee to the Houston snapper. Down 14-10 at the time, Houston accepted the penalty to try to score a go-ahead touchdown. But when their drive stalled, the Texans tried for another field goal -- but this time the shorter attempt shanked off the left post. To paraphrase Glenn Danzig with the Misfits: "I remember (its) Halloween!"Rather than needing one more score to cover the point spread with a 14-13 lead, the Jets now just need to milk the clock to win (and cover the point spread). On a crucial third down play, Rodgers connected with Davante Adams for the game (and point spread) clinching touchdown. Be wary of fading unlikely favorites when hosting a team with a much better record -- especially on Halloween!

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 4 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part Two -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 AFC Teams

Thursday, Sep 26, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).BALTIMORE RAVENS: The philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson. Despite hosting the AFC Championship Game and holding Patrick Mahomes scoreless in the second half, Baltimore still suffered a 17-10 loss to Kansas City. What is there to take from that disappointment? On the one hand, perhaps there would have been a different outcome if Zay Flowers did not get the football spiked out of his hands as he was approaching the goal line. Later, Jackson threw an ill-advised pass into the endzone that was picked off from the triple coverage. On the other hand, why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Jackson has a 58-19 record as a starter but is just 2-4 in the postseason. And then there were the losses in the offseason. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight. BUFFALO BILLS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I do worry about the deep ball threat. And I worry about a defense that is replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. But, I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. Buffalo faces a tough schedule, but I like the philosophical changes. CINCINNATI BENGALS: At first glance, I want to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. Can they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? If the young defensive players take the next step, then Cincinnati can certainly compete for a Super Bowl — assuming Burrow fully recovers. But the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters. DENVER BRONCOS: If head coach Sean Payton shares only one thing in common with former quarterback Russell Wilson, it’s this: they both saw a mark in Broncos CEO and owner Greg Penner. To be fair, maybe all three of these multimillionaires share the same affinity since Penner married into the WalMart family and is now the chairman of the company. All that Walmart money is now paying Wilson $85 million for the next two years to not wear the Denver colors in a decision made by Payton who is getting paid $18 million per year. What better way to get close to completing that five-year contract than by making the difficult (and convenient) decision that the entire edifice must be torn down? It would be foolish to look too much into the team’s 7-4 finish that resulted in a respectable 8-9 record last season. Four of their wins were by three points or fewer (and eight combined points) with a midseason five-game winning streak fueled by forcing 16 turnovers). The Broncos led the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries which is some turnover good fortune reminiscent of Payton’s Super Bowl run with New Orleans in 2010. That level of turnover success — nor a trip back to the Super Bowl — occurred again for Payton in the Big Easy. Denver got outscored by -3.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -71.net Yards-Per-Game. There is a fundamental talent problem for this team. When eating $55 million in dead cap money this season from the Wilson contract, the immediate results were that All-Pro safety Justin Simmons along with linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry were lost in free agency. Payton and fourth-year general manager George Paton tried to fill holes with retreads in the free agency market including several of the players on the Saints who played for Payton in his final waning years. But Payton inherited a roster last season that only had four remaining players drafted in Day One of Day Two from 2018-2020 — and only wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. made any sort of impact from the rookie class last season. The hope is that Payton found his next Drew Brees in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, so no pressure on anybody not making $18 mill a year. Nix is praised for football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Ducks that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like the guy last year but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. After the humiliating 70-20 loss to Miami when they surrendered 726 yards of offense, Denver did play better on defense. Benching some aging veterans helped. But Payton game-managed the rest of the way with the offense burning time off the clock with his old Taysom Hill playbook. All those defensive takeaways made chicken salad out of you-know-what — and that was with Simmons and Jewell! Perhaps with Payton the clear alpha dog now, his impact on the culture continues to pull out close games with a roster getting closer and closer to his vision. But he needs Nix to make an immediate positive impact given the rest of the roster. HOUSTON TEXANS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods.INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: The easy question regarding the Colts is how good second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson can be — and can he stay healthy? I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin — but those were lateral moves for a team that got outgained by -13.0 net Yards-Per-Game and benefitted from winning six of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — and they were in the bottom half of the league in both run defense and pass defense. Is the talent level better on this team? Maybe Richardson is a generational talent — but he has only started 17 games in college and professional football and his opponents had four games in the NFL to break down all the supposed “revolutionary” ways first-year head coach Shane Steichen was deploying his talents. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: My biggest question regarding this team last year was if they were closer to the team that lost by only a touchdown on the road to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs or the one that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs. I concluded: “It seems as if the ‘plan’ is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks.” With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight vision, some conclusions can be drawn. Lawrence did not take a step forward: in his last seven games, he had seven touchdown passes by seven interceptions. His defenders will remind everyone of the four various injuries he tried to play through down the stretch. Yet, he led the NFL with 21 turnovers — 14 giveaways from interceptions and another seven from lost fumbles. He has 60 career turnovers in his first three years in the league. Ridley was better than I expected with 76 receptions for 1016 yards and eight touchdowns — but he was not resigned perhaps given the compensation package that would have been due Atlanta in the language of the original deal worked out by general manager Trent Baalke. More on him in a moment. In regards the underachieving linebackers, the results were mixed. Josh Allen validated himself completely with 17.5 sacks last year. Walker added 10 sacks but still seems to be underachieving his #1 pick in the 2022 draft given his size and mobility. Lloyd pass defense improved. Yet this was a team that got outgained by -3.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The first-level analytics suggest this remains just a .500 team rather than one that reached another level two years ago. Win six of their last seven in 2022-23, lose of six in to close out 2023-24 — that’s the noise of a .500 team. But I want to take a step back to consider Baalke, the former San Francisco 49ers general manager who got into an internal fight with Jim Harbaugh which led to Harbaugh getting fired and replaced by Jim Tomasula. After Tomasula’s 5-11 campaign, the Niners sacked him for Chip Kelly who promptly oversaw a 2-15 season that got both Baalke and him fired. What if Baalke’s 2011 Executive of the Year Award had more to do with the wizardry of Harbaugh as a head coach than Baalke’s general manager acumen? What if Baalke has been living off those Harbaugh vapors for years? After being hired as the Director of Player Personnel by Jacksonville — not exactly the model franchise of organization competence under owner Shahid Khan (father of Tony Khan, founder and co-owner of AEW, the professional wrestling company where as the booker he has his bloated fan-boy stable of wrestlers flip from heel to face as often as Lawrence was injured last year, which actually may explain a lot) — he was soon promoted to general manager nine months later. Perhaps seeing Baalke as the NFL’s version of former WCW honcho Eric Bischoff is the appropriate comparison to keep this wrestling analogy alive. Bischoff’s MO was to poach talent from the WWF and rework their storylines. Baalke isn’t working off scripts — but he does draft NFL talent as if wakes up at 3 PM ET just in time for the national CBS-TV game featuring the SEC. Baalke had nine draft picks last April — and seven of those players came from SEC programs (three from LSU!). The non-SEC players came from the Big 12 which may be a result of commercial breaks when he turned on a random game on ABC-TV or ESPN. I got curious, and this is not an aberration. In 2023, 12 of Baalke’s 13 draft picks came from Power Five conference teams with the exception of the offensive tackle he drafted from Appalachian State may be resulting from a Thursday Night ESPN viewing. In 2022, five of his seven picks were from Power Five Conferences. In 2021 in his inaugural season with new head coach Urban Meyer who was going to tear up the NFL like he did the SEC and Big Ten, he drafted another eight of nine players from Power Five conference schools. And, sure, I get it: the better athletes play at Power Five conference schools. But so do the other 31 teams in the NFL get that too. It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chancing on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns. Of course, if Baalke’s reliance on simply banking on the 29 SEC players he has drafted in his career was producing great results, then why mess with the formula (that everyone already knows about). Instead, this remains a .500 team. My question in 2021 was whether Harbaugh or Baalke deserved more of the credit for the 49ers’ Super Bowl appearance. Three years later, Harbaugh won a National Championship at Michigan while Baalke’s Jaguars teams have gone 22-31 with one playoff appearance. Baalke drafts like he’s former Raiders’ general manager Mike Mayock, albeit with the cover-his-ass political skills. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. And while Rice has a likely suspension looming for off-the-field issues and Brown suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason that will keep him out four-to-six weeks, both will likely be available when it is time for the Chiefs to rev things up in the postseason to make NFL history with a third straight Super Bowl title. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Last year in the offseason, I was concerned about head coach Josh McDaniels’ inability to address the culture issues that plagued his time in Denver. It turns out he learned little from his mistakes. The Raiders celebrated like it was 1999 when he was fired on Halloween — and proceeded to go 5-4 under their last nine games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Now the Raiders will proceed with their their third head coach and third general manager since 2022 with the interim tag removed from Pierce’s title and owner Mark Davis tapping former Los Angeles Chargers general manager Tom Telesco as the new GM. At least Tedesco’s past draft history puts him at least at replacement level — a clear step up from Dave Ziegler and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock (the latter who drafted like he woke up at noon Vegas time to watch Saturday college football to account for his deep scouting). Perhaps Davis concluded that since Circus Circus is on the north end of the strip, there was room for a second circus on the strip south of Tropicana Boulevard. The drafting and free agency mayhem under the previous two regimes leaves many positions thin. The good news is that the Las Vegas defense could be quite good. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is the coronated heart and soul of this team with his endorsement of Pierce helping him retain the gig. With the free agent signing of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins from Miami, opposing front lines face a blocking dilemma from the likely mismatches based on those choices. Since Pierce took over as head coach, the Raiders allowed only 16.0 Points-Per-Game in those final nine games — and that side of the ball is one of the few areas with continuity with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham back for his third season running the defense. The biggest question is the offense. I like Telesco’s decision to not pay running back Josh Jacobs a big second contract after he averaged only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. But while Samir White led the NFL in rushing yards the final four weeks of the season, the former Georgia Bulldog has never been a bell cow even going back to college. Alexander Mattison was signed from Minnesota but only after he failed in the bell cow role for the Vikings after they decided to move on from Dalvin Cook. The wide receiver room is intriguing with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers alongside second-year tight end Michael Mayer and the latest transformational tight end prospect in Brock Bowers. I would love to see a commitment to 12 personnel with both tight ends on the field with Bowers taking on a Travis Kelce role. But is first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy that guy? His time in Chicago devolved quickly into a “who to blame” battle between QB Jalen Hurts and himself. His previous stop was as the quarterback coach in Green Bay in the who-to-blame/who-to-credit shit show between Aaron Rodgers, Matt LeFluer, Nathaniel Hackett, and himself. And then there is the quarterback issue. Rookie Aidan O’Connell was solid in his time on the field as a rookie last year and had eight touchdown passes without an interception in his final four stars — but the quality of competition was not top-notch. Gardner Minshew was brought in as a free agent from Indianapolis. I applaud Telesco for not overpaying for someone like Kirk Cousins, something the past regimes may have done to bide time in their showcase on the Strip. Pierce is a players’ coach who deserves credit for some subtle tactical changes on offense like more play-action and more emphasis on getting the ball to their damn play-makers over supposed schematic flare. I can see the Raiders having a very good defense. I can see the offense being very interesting in 12 personnel with Adams and Meyers offsetting those two tight ends (even with either quarterback under center). But Getsy calling the plays for this vision? I am in a holding pattern, on that front. MIAMI DOLPHINS: The biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go. McDaniels tweaked the playbook away from some of the concepts Kyle Shanahan deploys as injuries at QB appear endemic to his system. Tagovailoa bulked up and took jiu-jitsu classes to train his body how to fall. Whatever it was, it worked as Tagovailoa played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But will that lead to some complacency concerning the ever-lingering concern of a professional athlete who has had multiple concussions? Tagovailoa slimmed down in the offseason — is he planning on running more? It is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including a 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jean Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries. The hope is that both linebackers are ready by the start of the season — but this unit will take a big hit if they cannot return to form. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster the unit led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. But it is not hard to imagine things unraveling on that side of the football.NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense looks to be adopting the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is likely to deploy a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes and, hopefully, more explosive plays. The team did sign Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. New general manager Eliot Wolf drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the second and fourth rounds, but it remains a question of whether either is a future WR1. The offensive line should be solid, albeit with questions at left tackle. However, there is continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. But even Belichick’s harshest critics would be foolish to suggest he was not still a defensive guru. Will the defense take a step back now without Belichick’s touch that ensured the tackling fundamentals were always sound (seven straight seasons top five in fewest broken tackles) and took away their opponents' top weapon (New England was third in Defensive DVOA against WR1s last year)? Wolf did not add any significant pieces on that side of the ball. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense. Better play at quarterback with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot (remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago). On the other hand, if the defense takes a step back without Belichick and the offensive problems continue, it could be a very long season in Foxboro. NEW YORK JETS: In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 41 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He plans to be just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and return from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. New York’s offensive line could be much better after left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses were signed as free agents, and then Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu was drafted in the first round. The Jets have intriguing talent at the skill positions. The defense should remain elite with defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams, and cornerback Sauce Gardner giving them All-Pros at all three levels. Peyton Manning was able to win a Super Bowl in Denver behind an outstanding defense despite being past his prime. This team does not need another MVP season from Rodgers to make a deep run. But the pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. If Rodgers can’t walk the walk (even after dolphin sound therapy) — or gets injured again — things could implode very quickly.PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.Best of luck -- Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 3 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Thursday, Sep 26, 2024

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).ATLANTA FALCONS: I do not mind the individual decisions the Falcons made in the offseason — but after adding them all up, I am troubled by the sum of its parts. It seems clear that owner Arthur Blank no longer wanted to be at parties having to defend his underwhelming quarterback room. So general manager Terry Fontenot invests $180 million ($100 million guaranteed) on a 36-year-old quarterback with a 1-3 career postseason record and spotty results in prime-time coming off an Achilles injury. OK, Kirk Cousins was the best available quarterback in free agency. And then Fontenot drafts Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the NFL draft despite him his injury history (two ACL tears), and his older age (three years older than the 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy). OK, Penix has a great arm and perhaps coaching can help his touch when under pressure. But making both moves together incurs some heavy opportunity costs that will make another Super Bowl run for Blank even more difficult. Cousins is Plan A — but using the eighth pick on Penix cost them a top-level offensive lineman or wide receiver, or the top defensive player in the draft (given the initial run of offensive players). By the way, if Cousins has not recovered from Achilles' injury, then veteran Taylor Heinicke is likely their Plan B Day One starting quarterback. Plan C is then Penix — but how does this work? The ideal scenario is that Cousins wins a couple of Super Bowls … and then somehow gives up his job to make room for Penix in two or three years. OK, then Penix begins his starting career at 26 or 27 years old and two or three years into his rookie deal. That is not the best way to maximize value out of your franchise quarterback drafted in the top eight picks (but they do have two Super Bowl rings!). But even then, the pivot to Penix loses the guaranteed money in the Cousins contract ($50 million? $25 million?) that could be used to sign other players to help the new era. Of course, even winning one Super Bowl with Cousins under center is unlikely — his two postseason victories since high school are equal to what McCarthy achieved with Michigan since December. Any early missteps will have the fans calling on Penix to get a chance. Does the locker room hold? There are a lot of ways this plan goes sideways. I want to step back to consider Atlanta’s rehiring of Raheem Morris as their head coach. I like Morris and I think he deserved an opportunity — and I tend to like head coaches in their second opportunity. But the former Tampa Bay head coach was already in the building as the defensive coordinator for Dan Quinn in 2020-21! If he is such a bright star (and maybe he is), then Blank cannot let him leave in 2021 after he first Quinn! Instead, Blank hires Arthur Smith, the son of the owner of FedEx, but fires him three years later. OK, maybe the additional three years in Los Angeles as the Rams defensive coordinator was the experience Morris needed to take the final step in his development — but Blank had no guarantee he could ever get him back. They are is an internal inconsistency with all these decisions — and I suspect they all have the common denominator of a meddling owner getting antsy in the twilight of his life. Blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl may do that to all of us. Perhaps hiring Sean McVay’s passing game coordinator Zac Robinson unlocks the vast potential of running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Perhaps Morris overseeing the defense again helps the younger players develop (and not miss the losses of veteran defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Bud Dupree). Perhaps making sure the quarterback room is in the best shape possible is the most important consideration. OK … but there is a haphazardness regarding these major decisions — and the writing is already on the wall explaining how this experiment failed if all does not go according to (Blank’s) plan. CAROLINA PANTHERS: The only area in which I feel comfortable prognosticating about the Panthers is that their defense is going to take several steps back from ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 293.9 Yards-Per-Game. That appears to be a number helped by Carolina’s negative game states and anemic offense. Despite their two victories last year, they did not play a down in the fourth quarter last year where they enjoyed a lead. The deeper analytics expose this: the Panthers ranked 26th in EPA per Play allowed and 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense replaces many of their best players — most notable linebackers Brent Burns and Frankie Luvu who combined for 49 pressures on the quarterback while being both strong run defenders. The likely regression of the defense is the subtext for the biggest question regarding the potential of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. In his defense, his support at the skill positions was laughable. When 33-year-old Adam Thielen catches 103 balls, it’s not because the “guy still has it.” The picture boy in the dictionary for empty calories only averaged 9.8 Yards-Per-Reception as defenses were overjoyed to allow another dump off to the zero YAC risk. With all five starters returning on the offensive line, pass protection was supposed to be an area of strength. Instead, some injuries and the regression of second-year left tackle Ikem Ekwonu led to a nightmare where Young was sacked 62 times — and the -477 sack yards lost was the third most in NFL history. It is easy to jump to conclusions about the 5’11 QB seemed undersized coming into the league at 204 pounds. But after Carolina traded WR1 D.J. Moore to Chicago (who wanted to help their young QB), Young was left with Terrace Marshall, free agent D.J. Chark, and rookie Jonathan Bingo. His dump-offs to Thielen make sense. And then there is the dysfunctional management approach of venture capital GOD! turned NFL owner David Tepper who pulled the trigger on his third midseason head coaching firing in the last five seasons in between dumping his next vodka-tonics on his heckling fan base. So quarterback whisperer Frank Reich is out and replaced by the next quarterback whisperer flavor of the month in Dave Canales. And maybe the 43-year-old has great potential — but two years ago at this time, he was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle. I worry about his inexperience as a manager of a team — and that worry is compounded by his decision to call his own plays — but when you just called the plays for a Tampa Bay offense that ranked the fourth worst in first and second down efficiency using the metrics of the Football Outsiders’ DVOA numbers, how could one resist? Rookie general manager Dan Morgan traded for Pittsburgh wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round. Morgan also overpaid for two guards in the free agent market — and the $73 million cap money dollars in their offensive line this season shatters the NFL record. Maybe this will truly help unlock Young and improve an offense that was last in the league by only generating 265.3 Yards-Per-Game? I think it is too early to come to conclusions about Young — but it is easy to be skeptical. CHICAGO BEARS: The hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft. General manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odenze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. But the defense should be the better unit that made a dramatic improvement in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — but we are still talking about a rookie quarterback. DALLAS COWBOYS: Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. The top running back may be Ezekiel Elliott who they let go last season in free agency. Another of those three significant free agent hires was running back Royce Freeman, who barely got time with the Los Angeles Rams last year. There is a theory that all Jones cares about is keeping the Cowboys in the news. With McCarthy and quarterback Dan Prescott headlining a long list, the hot seat is a rather wide this season in Dallas. DETROIT LIONS: After almost upsetting the 49ers on the road in San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl, the Lions are a trendy pick to get the opportunity to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nine starters return from an offense that has ranked in the top-four Yards-Per-Game in two straight seasons — and they scored at least 30 points in 11 games last year. If you like teams with great offensive lines (and I do), then it is easy to love Detroit’s group that returns four starters including a pair of All-Pros in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, The skill positions are loaded with stars that will be drafted early in all the fantasy drafts. But there are concerns. A lot is being asked of third-year wide receiver Jameson Williams to step up as a credible option despite catching only 24 balls last year after missing half the season due to a gambling suspension. He missed almost his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL in January when he was still playing at Alabama. General manager Brad Holmes traded up for him anyway — as he is wont to do. Williams is a deep threat — but if he is only a deep threat and continues to be flaky, then this offense may lack a reliable second option at wide receiver to complement slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. A second pass-rushing defensive end is also an area of weakness. Led by Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit led the NFL in pressure rate on the quarterback — but they were just 23 in actual sacks. The Lions have James Houston back from injury last year after he registered eight sacks in seven games as a rookie — but was that a fluke or a flash of the potential of the former sixth-round pick? Third-year pro Josh Paschal has not developed as a second-round pick. Holmes signed defensive end Marcus Davenport away from Minnesota — but he has played more than 13 games just once in his six-year career. Defensive coordinator generates pressure by being aggressive with blitz calls — but this only puts more pressure on the cornerbacks which are the weak link of this team. The Lions ranked 27th in the league by allowing 247.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and they were last by surrendering 69 receptions of 20 or more yards. After the team cut their top cornerback Cam Sutton after his off-the-field incident that led to an NFL suspension, Holmes made the secondary his highest priority by signing for Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis III and then trading up twice in the draft (of course) to select Alabama corner Terrion Arnold in the first round and Missouri corner Ennis Rakastraw in the second round. Kudos to Holmes for aggressively identifying an area of extreme need — but he did the last season as well. Holmes signed Sutton as a free agent from Pittsburgh last year as well as cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — and he traded up (of course) to draft safety Brian Branch. The Branch pick looks great in hindsight — but Moseley suffered an injury early in Game One and Gardner-Johnson missed most of the year with an injury. Depth at cornerback became a significant drawback in the second half of the season. Now Sutton and Gardner-Johnson are gone. These plans are not foolproof. Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback. Maybe Holmes' plan continues to work. But for a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an after thought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy, to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league. GREEN BAY PACKERS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: There are wildly different opinions regarding the state of this organization — and most of the disagreement starts with the evaluation of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first two years running the football operations. Coming off a 13-4 regular season, did Adofo-Mensah blow the Vikings’ opportunity to win the NFC North last year by not resigning running back Dalvin Cook? Minnesota only generated seven rushing touchdowns last year. And he is making this worse by not resigning veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Or, did Adofo-Mensah wisely not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign that ended with a seven-point loss at home to the New York Giants after a regular season where they got outscored and outgained? Despite a 7-10 campaign last year with Cousins missing nine games to injury and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson out seven games to injury, the Vikings only got outscored by 18 points over the entire season, just a 15 net difference in points from the previous year (and the 13-4 regular season mark). Adofo-Mensah began his tenure embracing a “competitive rebuild.” Resigning Jefferson for another four years while letting someone else take the chance to pay tons of money for an aging quarterback coming off a torn ACL seems pretty wise to me. And seemingly keeping to the script for this franchise, they selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the NFL draft who drew as divisive of pre-draft coverage as I have ever seen. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 21-year-old ran a 4.48 seconds time in the 40-yard dash. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” And with one set of pundits who I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, they made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated last year. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game not as effective as it was the year before. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — even before what he can potentially do as a rookie. But the Adofe-Mensah haters have plenty of ammunition to continue to hate. I’m kinda bullish of what McCarthy can do under head coach Kevin O’Connell’s guidance with weapons like Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockensen (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). The analytics suggested Minnesota was an eight-win team two years ago (their Pythagorean win tally was 8.4) — and they only dropped to 8.0 Pythagorean wins last year. The running back room should be better with Aaron Jones who averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season and thrives when the QB is under center. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores oversaw a unit that improved from 31st in the league in total defense to 16th by allowing only 333.2 total Yards-Per-Game. While Flores is aggressive, he also disguises and misdirects his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. While this team is unlikely to replicate the 13-4 record from two seasons ago, this might very well be the best overall team under the O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah regime in their three seasons on the job. NEW YORK GIANTS: It was a fateful January afternoon when the Giants visited Minnesota to play the Vikings in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs two seasons ago. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. New York pulled off the upset to advance to the NFC Divisional Round. In the offseason, the Vikings management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than sign him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. General manager Joe Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal. He resigned running back Saquon Barkley at a base of $10.1 million. New York kicked off their season with a confidence that was quickly shattered in a humiliating 40-0 loss in Dallas. Jones was sacked eight times by a disastrous offensive line that would go on to allow 85 sacks on the year, the second most in NFL history since they began tracking that stat in 1982. Jones got sacked 28 times in five games before going down with a knock injury. When he returned later in the season, he tore his ACL in the second quarter against Las Vegas. The Giants closed the season with a 6-11 record. As Minnesota drafted their hopeful next franchise quarterback as they continue to rebuild, head coach Brian Daboll along with Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. But he hired the previous “bums” — and former defensive coordinator Don Martindale had a good reputation in the league. Daboll is a screamer on the headset during the games — an act that wears thin. Martindale’s defenses are blitz-happy — but that also protected a young secondary and helped New York tie for NFL-lead with 31 takeaways (all after Week Four). Injuries played a big role — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round. But I have to go back to Schoen and his decision-making. His first two drafts have resulted in far too many misses: first-round pick right tackle Evan Deal, third-round wide receiver picks WanDale Robinson and Jalen Hyatt. He continues to sign retread after retread in free agency. Just on the offensive line, after adding four free agents and drafting two rookies in the first three rounds in his first draft in 2022, he signed another five free agents this offseason — but did not draft an offensive lineman. Perhaps Schoen knows he no longer has the time to wait on a rookie to develop after all six of his acquisitions in his first year have all seemed to flop (only his two draft picks remain on the team)? A healthy and improved offensive line could help Jones — and adding Nabors may finally address the gaping hole at WR1. But with Daboll’s leadership skills now in question, it will not seem like it will take much for this organization to implode, yet again. And that would put them at least three years behind that Vikings team they upset in early 2022. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. On the other hand, Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team.Best of luck -- Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 2 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 1 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024: Pretending "Let Russ Cook" Was Never a Thing

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.Best of luck — Frank.

The Champions League Final Was Destined to be Low-Scoring

Sunday, Jun 30, 2024

I expected a lower-scoring affair in the UEFA Champions League finals match between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid — and Real Madrid came away with a 2-0 victory to win the European club championship. Tactics make fights (and soccer matches) -- and both of these sides preferred to play in a defensive midblock position. They both preferred to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of the head coaches was going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti was likely to have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top could create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach was likely to goad Dortmund into a counter-attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. It set up to be a cagey affair -- and I did not expect the approach from either side to change if they gave up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal was going to be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent. Both of these sides saw their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they had given up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals. Real Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also had the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, but he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022. Only six combined goals had been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four had seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Under 2. For these reasons, our UEFA Champions League Total of the Year was on the under. The match was still scoreless at half-time. Dani Carvajal broke the game open for Real Madrid by scoring in the 74th minute. With Borussia Dortmund now needing to play more aggressively, Vinicius was able to score a second goal nine minutes later. Fortunately, Los Blancos kept their clean sheet the rest of the way without scoring a third goal. Best of luck — Frank.

Identifying Underlay Bets in Horse Racing -- The Case of Sierra Leone at the Belmont

Sunday, Jun 30, 2024

Successful handicapping in horse racing involves identifying overlay and underlay values to the betting odds — and reacting accordingly. We want overlays — horses that offer more value than their odds indicate. We should be cautious when it comes to investing in underlay horses since the betting value in those events is not commensurate with the odds.That’s the easy part. The hard part when handicapping horse races is to accurately evaluate and identify these overlay and underlay horses. When handicapping the Belmont Stakes, I concluded that the betting favorite Sierra Leone was an egregious underlay with his morning line odds at 9:5. While the betting action that Saturday went against that horse, Sierra Leone remained the betting favorite at 2:1 when the race started — and I considered him still of underlay value. Sierra Leone was considered the premier closer in this race — and perhaps my feelings would have been different for him if this was 1 1/2 miles. But the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes was temporarily moved to the Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York with Belmont Park undergoing a two-year renovation. This race was only 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, a 1/4 mile shorter than the traditional 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont. His two losses were by a nose including at the Kentucky Derby — but he demonstrated some immaturity in how he attacked that race. Trainer Chad Brown changed his jockey since the Derby — Flavien Prat was now riding him. And there was been an equipment change. Some pundits may see these changes as solving problems. Admittedly, sometimes “adding the blinkers” works — but more often than not, these tinkerings are indicative of a bigger problem. Generally, I think changes like this add risk — and adding risk does not make sense for a 2-1 favorite. The most important race for Sierra Leone was the Kentucky Derby — so the fact that these problems were not identified before then is a problem Brown needs to take responsibility for himself. Furthermore, Sierra Leone’s best Beyer figure was just 99 — and there were three other horses with higher speed figures in their career. While these speed numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, they are an objective way to measure the potential best efforts of the horses in the field. Sierra Leone finished in third place in the race. Dornoch won the race and rewarded his supporters at 17-1 closing odds for some very nice overlay value. Mindframe finished in second place after closing at 6-1 odds. His 103 Beyer figure was the best in the field, but I was hesitant to invest in horse racing for just the third time — and the first time in a graded stakes race. Interestingly, the other two horses with Beyer figures higher than Sierra Leone and in the 100s, Mystik Dan and Seize the Day, finished last and second-to-last. Sometimes the Beyer speed numbers present horses that have already peaked with their performance. Seize the Day who registered a 100 while winning the Preakness Stakes three weeks prior. His previous highest Beyer figure was 88 — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance. How much did Seize the Day benefit from the wet track that day? There were clear skies for the Belmont. It was his third race in five weeks — so fatigue was a concern. Fatigue was also a factor for #3 Mystik Dan who is the only horse to compete at both previous legs of the Triple Crown this year. Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby — and he had a reputation as a mudder before finishing second at the Preakness. Mystik Dan did not run the best technical race at the Derby but benefited from the large field and some bad trips from his top competition. I suspected the Preakness States field was relatively weak — and not beating Seize the Grey that day was an indictment. My handicapping did not all come out roses for the Belmont Stakes. My Best Bet was on #5 Antiquarian who was coming off winning the Peter Pan at 6-1 odds on May 11th. At 12-1 morning line odds, I thought Antiquarian was a nice overlay. I wrote at the time: “I think this race shapes up for another underdog to upset the favorites” — and I got that part right. Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes last year at closing odds in the 7-1 range — and that was also off winning the Peter Pan in his previous start. Granted, the Belmont was at a different track with a different distance — but a recent winner coming into the third leg of the Kentucky Derby certainly has precedent. Antiquarian’s previous race was a sixth place at the Louisiana Derby — but he had to break through the gate to begin that race which put him at a competitive disadvantage given that expenditure of energy. There was a lot to like. Antiquarian was lightly raced with this being just his fifth career start. He had steadily improved from race-to-race — and the distance did not appear to be a problem. He was trained by Todd Pletcher who has won the Belmont Stakes four times in his career. He was being ridden by John Velazquez who is one of the best jockeys in the business. Alas, Antiquarian faded late and finished in fifth place. But in a choice between being wrong about a 2-1 betting favorite or a horse at 12-1 odds I’ll take the overlay every time. Best of luck — Frank.

The Florida Panthers Flexed Their Muscles to WIn Game Five Against the Rangers

Friday, May 31, 2024

Going into Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, Florida had outplayed the Rangers in this series despite it being deadlocked at 2-2. If not for overtime losses in Games Two and Three, the Panthers could be attempting to wrap this series up tonight — or it could already be over. The most dominant aspect of this series had been Florida’s forechecking which has allowed them to dominate puck possession and shot attempts. In Games Three and Four, the Panthers outshot New York by a 197-87 margin pure shot attempts — and by a 77-46 margin shots on target (that were not blocked by a player). Florida had generated 33 High Danger Chances in the last two games while the Rangers have only 14 High Danger Chances. Overall, the Panthers had produced 7.59 expected Goals (xG) in Games Three and Four — and they had held New York to only 3.88 xG in these two games. Florida’s play on defense has been outstanding throughout the postseason. Going into Thursday’s Game Four, they lead all teams in the postseason in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) — and they had given up the fewest High Danger Chances. They had also given up the fewest Power Play goals in the playoffs as well. What was encouraging for the Panthers going into Game Five was their Power Play. After going 0-3 in Game One, they had scored in five of their last 12 Power Plays against the Rangers. They rank second in the postseason in Power Play goals. They rank third in High Danger Chances generated and third in the postseason in Corsi-For Percentage. I expected Florida to put their foot on the accelerator in this crucial Game Five. The Panthers had won 40 of their last 61 games after winning their last game. They had also won 23 of their last 30 games after a win at home — and they had won 10 of their last 14 games after a victory at home by one goal. They had scored seven combined goals in their last two games — and they have won 34 of their last 50 games after scoring three or more goals in their last two games. Florida had also been very good when playing away from home. The Panthers had won 21 of their last 29 road games in the second half of the season — and they had won 13 of their last 19 games on the road in the playoffs in the last two years. New York’s underlying metrics in these playoffs are underwhelming. They went into Thursday’s game ranked 14th in Corsi-For Percentage, ninth in expected Goals Percentage, and last of the final four teams in expected Goals For Percentage. They are last of the final four teams in Power Play goals. They were not getting production from some key players — Mike Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have yet to register a point. Adam Fox may be trying to play through an injury — and he was shaky in Game Four. The Rangers had lost 12 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by one goal. They had also lost 8 of their last 11 games at home after losing in overtime in their last game. Furthermore, New York had lost 5 of their last 8 games when the playoff series was tied — and they had lost 4 of their last 5 fifth games in a playoff series.The Rangers have overcome getting outplayed at even strength with strong play from their special teams. They want into Game Five ranked third in the playoffs on the Power Play. Even better, they have scored five shorthanded goals in the postseason — and Kreider broke his pointless streak by scoring a shorty at the 2:04 mark of the second period. But the Panthers responded just over six minutes later when Gustav Forsling scored at the 8:21 minute mark of the period. Anton Lundell then gave Florida the lead midway through the third period with his goal. Sam Bennett added an empty netter at the 18:08 minute mark of the third period. Alexis Lafreniere cut the deficit in half for the Rangers with fifty seconds left — but the Panthers held on to take the game by a 3-2 score. When an NHL playoff series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game Five goes on to win 78.8% of the time (231-62). Florida outshot New York by a 36-27 margin in Game Five as they continue to outplay the Rangers in most situations fueled by their dominant forecheck. With the books listing the Panthers as a money-line favorite in the -165 range, I will be passing on the side for a potential featured play since the price is higher than my -150 price threshold in the NHL (and MLB). And if New York pulls off the upset on the road, the odds change significantly with them hosting a Game Seven back at home at Madison Square Garden. But the informal Game Five rule did reward the team that has been playing better overall hockey in this series, despite the 2-2 tie in the series. Best of luck — Frank.

The Minnesota Timberwolves Dethroned their Arch Rivals But Were Not Ready to Take the Next Step

Friday, May 31, 2024

aAfter dominating the Timberwolves in crunch time in the first three games in the Western Conference Finals, Dallas looked poised to pull out another one on Tuesday and complete the four-game sweep when Luka Doncic got fouled while converting a long three-pointer late in that game. But Doncic missed the free throw and the T-Wolves pulled out the victory to make it a 3-1 series. Credit Minnesota for making some defensive adjustments and finally playing better in the clutch — but perhaps being down 0-3 in the series took away the pressure that had been impacting them. They had only scored 20 combined points in the final five minutes in the first three games of this series — but they put up 27 points in the fourth quarter in Game Four to preserve the five-point lead they had after the third quarter. The Mavericks only shot 42.0% from the field in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They made only 14 of 40 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they missed 12 of their 17 open 3-point attempts. But it was my expectation that Dallas would shoot better in Game Five. I thought they would also play better defense after allowing the Timberwolves to make 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 12 games. The Mavericks allowed Minnesota to make 50.6% of their shots in Game Two — but they had covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, Dallas had covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. They had demonstrated their resilience by covering the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they had covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have still won seven of their last nine games — and they had covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They had covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Dallas was going back on the road for Game Five where they had covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home.Minnesota played their best defensive game in this series by holding the Mavs to 42.0% shooting in Game Four. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 22 games by making 52.7% of their shots. Karl-Anthony Towns played his best game in the series — by far — by scoring 25 points on 9 of 13 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc including three in the fourth quarter. Towns had struggled in clutch time — and he had been inconsistent when playing at home in these playoffs. In his last five playoff games at home since the second round, Towns was scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game on 32.3% shooting and just a 29.6% clip from behind the arc. The Timberwolves had failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a win by six points or less. They return home where they had failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored by up to six points — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Minnesota did not experience more difficulties in clutch time in Game Five — but it was not for the reasons they wanted. Dallas raced out to a 35-19 lead at the end of the first quarter and went into halftime with a 69-40 edge. The Mavericks got their lead up to 36 points in the third quarter before cruising to a 124-103 victory to end the series in five games. Looking back on the Timberwolves season, they deserve credit for dethroning the defending NBA champions — and beating the Nuggets in Denver in a seventh game was impressive. General manager Tim Connelly did a great job in assembling a roster that frustrated the potent Denver offense when playing on the defensive end of the court. After losing to the Nuggets in five games in the postseason last year, Minnesota split their four regular-season games against them and went into the Western Conference Semifinals confident that they could beat the reigning champions. But the collection of players lacked defenders who could effectively so slow down Luka Doncic (albeit, a difficult task). Yet it was not their defense that let them down in Games One through Three. Anthony Edwards got outplayed by Doncic in those games. Perhaps Kyrie Irving made the difference for Dallas in crunch time. The biggest need this T-Wolves team needs is a reliable scorer to complement Edwards. Towns scored 28 points — but he missed five of his six shots from behind the arc including his first four which helped the Mavericks seize their insurmountable lead before he managed to score some empty calorie points with his team out of the game. His continued inconsistency and tendency to disappear in key moments may reduce him to a third option rather than a reliable number-two scorer. For Minnesota to take the next step and advance to the NBA Finals, Connelly needs to address this scoring need. Best of luck — Frank.

Tarik Skubal's Emergence as an Elite Starting Pitcher

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

At this time last season, Tarik Skubal was still recovering from flexor tendon surgery that ended his 2022 season prematurely in August. He demonstrated promise that year by posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. A year later, he has become one of the best-starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. When he did return in early July of last year, he started 15 times the rest of the way. He posted a 7-3 record with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. After getting up to 80 pitches in his fourth start, he registered a 2.37 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his final 12 starts. He struck out 33.6% of the batters he faced during that span. His outstanding pitching carried over into the spring where he registered a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings. He struck out 17 batters and walked only three in those spring training efforts. Going into his game on Sunday against Kansas City, the left-hander was coming off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He had a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He had punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he was striking out 31.2% of the batters he faced. This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal had a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an expected ERA of 2.30. I am leaning into the expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rates, barrel-rates, and exit velocity. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. His four-seamer is outstanding — and he uses his deceptive change-up as his primary off-speed pitch. If he can further develop his slider, he will be even more effective. The Tigers had won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He was set up to thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595. Skubal gave up a leadoff double to Maikel Garcia who then scored when the next batter, Bobby Witt Jr,. singled him home. But that was all the damage that Kansas City could muster with Skubal only giving up our hits and that lone run in seven innings of work. The lefty struck out six batters. Detroit won the game by a 4-1 score — and we won our MLB American League Central Game of the Month. Best of luck — Frank.

North Carolina State's Bubble Burst (and so did our Fear and Loathing month of March)

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

Perhaps we just needed the calendar to move to April? After enjoying a good college basketball season that included winning our College Basketball Game of the Month with Iowa State’s easy victory against Oklahoma on February 28th, about nothing went right in March with a very disappointing March Madness campaign. But once we got out of the month, we went 6-0 with our final six college basketball plays in April with 2-0 sweeps in both Final Four games and then in the National Championship. We also won our College Basketball Game of the Year on Purdue in their Final Four contest. Going into that game against North Carolina State, Purdue had won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game. The Wolfpack had won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game. This game was being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament had included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they had probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expected their bubble to finally burst — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run had been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo was not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns had thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey did not need to do that — he was just going to stand there and raise his arms. He didn’t commit many fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns could attempt to attack the rim — but Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack faced an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum was a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he used Burns to try to defend him, he risked getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men had fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue had played. Burns was too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he was spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue played the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey would have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranked third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he was on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams had attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense in the Elite Eight which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they had covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue had covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they had covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. The Boilermakers had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. Purdue controlled the game in a 63-50 victory. Edey scored 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting and grabbed 12 rebounds. Burns only scored 8 points. The Wolfpack only made 37% of their shots. The closest NC State would make the game was within seven points with just over eight minutes left. We won our College Basketball Game of the Year and ended the season on a relatively high note, but understanding an autopsy is needed to determine what went wrong in the month of March. I’ll solve it. Best of luck — Frank.

NCAA Tournament Committee Seeding is a Joke -- So Don't Handicap Using that "Information"

Sunday, Mar 31, 2024

Successful sports handicapping requires constant re-evaluation of one’s tactics and assumptions. The moment a previous handicapping edge becomes conventional wisdom is the likely moment that past advantage has become a losing relic of the past. Winning bettors continue to innovate as does the books trying to minimize their potential losses. And with the legalization of sports gambling across the country, gambling information as sports content has become more mainstream. Nowhere is this perhaps most evident than during March Madness. There was a time even within the last decade where the seeding of the NCAA Tournament could play into potentially successful empirical angles for or against teams in the Big Dance. But all of this was dependent on the betting public putting stock in how the Tournament Selection Committee made their decisions. If the public incorrectly viewed their seeding as a de-facto objective power ranking, then there might be underlying betting value critiquing that assumption with more insightful power rankings that exposed value relative to the point spread (as always, sensitive to public opinion). There was a time when an eighth seed in the NCAA Tournament was likely one of the #29 to #32 ranked teams in the nation. One could reliably assume that a 12-seeded team fell pretty close to a team that ranks #45 to #50. It would be simply foolish to maintain that expectation these days. After the expansion of the first four round midweek before “Round One” and with more and more attention paid to the NCAA Tournament as a television product, the seeding pays less attention to creating a pure power bracket than it does presenting television programming for three weeks. There is a reason that CBS’s new NCAA Tournament 15-second advertisement features 13 seconds of “dancing” (it’s the Big Dance, get it?) and their celebrity commentators celebrating something other than actual on-the-court basketball highlights. In the world of early entry in the NBA, the transfer portal, and NIL, television is banking on a feeling rather than the product on the floor. Just an initial yet non-exhaustive list of criteria that conflicts with a true power rating bracket demonstrates the problem. The committee seems to take the selection of the top four one-seeds very seriously — and these four top seeds get plenty of television exposure. But then the games begin as the committee attempts to place them in opening round games that have geographic proximity to their campus. More conflicts ensue, with this being only a partial list that I jotted down over the last two weeks from memory. I’m sure I am missing some (and there are probably more that are not made public):— teams from the same conference avoid being in the same potential Sweet 16 bracket.— teams who have already played each other three times avoid being in the same bracket before the Elite Eight. — non-conference opponents who played in the regular season avoid each other before the Sweet 16 bracket. — teams like BYU avoid playing on Sundays.— lower-seeded underdogs avoid playing in locations that would give them a geographical edge. Those conditions alone impact the ability to make a pure bracket. Then consider that the bracket is all but completed the night before Selection Sunday when the bracket is revealed — despite five conference tournament championship games having yet to be played. They don’t care about those results — although those results may have much to say about the true power ratings of the moment (as North Carolina State has demonstrated). Furthermore, cynical observers would suggest that the committee thinks about intriguing potential second and third-round matchups when seeding teams. Perhaps that is hindsight bias because even the random seeding of teams would stumble into compelling storylines. However, for those of us that consider seed numbers the equivalent of character names like “Rachel” and “Ross”, we do not think there is much integrity left in the process. Like the laughable College Football Playoff rankings show that is fully aware of the upcoming games on their multitude of networks that serve as de-facto playoff games (before their playoffs), it’s important to remember that is all a television show, folks. And we can still bet and win money off television programs! Just don’t put too much stock in thinking there is inherent value because the content creators decided to label a team a “Rachel”. I’ll pick on Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner here, whose work Giant Killers methodology I very much appreciated and considered insightful over the last decade or so. Maybe there is simply something about what happens to the people who start taking money from The Athletic, a publication that appears to offer bonuses for how often “insane” can be deployed as a descriptive noun. It's getting stale.Keating and Brenner’s premise remains dependent on the evaluation of seeding. In 2012, this made sense. In 2024, it is laughably outdated. I mean, you can try to imply that the “market” is following your advice when 11-seed Oregon is a favorite against 6-seed South Carolina when 10-seed Nevada is a favorite against 7-seed Dayton, when 11-seed New Mexico is a favorite against 6-seed Clemson (I should have trusted my gut on the Tigers in that one), and two of the four 9-seeds are favored over the 8-seeds. One can also say the stripper is talking to you because she finds you truly handsome and charming if you want to ignore context. Those aren't underdogs, and they weren't underdogs before you hit send when your article was finished. The lines were out a few hours after the Selection Sunday TV show. You published it midweek. However, in the real world, the market caught up long ago to take heed of the publicly available power rankings system (that, coincidentally, is very, very close to your own personal power rankings systems that are (a) conveniently hidden; (b) same all the same assumptions as every other power rankings system, and our (c) still wrong all the time. I still like Keating and Brenner’s stuff, even if it is not as illuminating in 2024. I am very much intrigued with their evolving classification of styles of teams, such as Generic Giant for a Clemson team that plays good defense but does not create more scoring possessions by forcing turnovers or crashing the offensive glass. The recent identification of Wounded Assassins referring to teams like NC State that took a bunch of regular season losses but remain dangerous is intriguing. Labeling Marquette as a Generic Giant when they ranked 20th in the nation in forcing turnovers seemed a major misstep and betrayal of how they previously viewed Shaka Smart-coached teams when he was leading the Havoc at VCU. But that is an aside to simply this: taking credit for the higher-seeded teams whom the market and the bookies all viewed as favorites as “upset” winners is a conclusion that deserves mockery, especially when attempting to target a smarter audience. One can pretend that that point of the Giant Killers series remains filling out the bracket. In the year of our Lord 2024 when legalization of sports betting is abundant, that is not how one is reading this work that started in earnest over a decade ago (and they know it). Keating and Brenner’s work would be better served moving forward by attacking the oddsmakers' line rather than the tournament selection committee’s number. Yes, attacking the “Rachel” label may be easier, but relying on padded numbers from faulty seedings pretending to be a power ranking system is simply not credible any longer. The work is getting harder. The transfer portal, NIL, and the continued reliance on 3-point shooting are adding more and more in-season and in-game variance to the NCAA Tournament than previous Big Dances. Just when I thought the little guy perhaps had an edge with experienced rosters after the Final Four runs of San Diego State and Florida Atlantic last year, we get chalk this season with only one double-digit seed advancing to the Sweet 16 and only two “non-Power Conference schools” — San Diego State and Gonzaga — reaching the final 16 teams (and those two teams are perennial powers in college basketball). Those are some of the issues I will be thinking about in the offseason as I make some much-needed tweaking to my college basketball handicapping fundamentals. Relying on past models may make it easier to produce content, but it is not producing winning results. And it is fooling fewer and fewer people. Best of luck — Frank.

Scottie Scheffler's Putter Keeps Him an Underlay Bet

Sunday, Mar 31, 2024

Scottie Scheffler was an overwhelming favorite this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open at the Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston. After back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago, DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260.That was a clear underlay value as far as I am concerned when I handicapped the event. Just as a gentle reminder for those too scared to not invest in Scheffler despite those short odds: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter this year.But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere. And as it turns out, those bettors backing Stephen Jaeger at +4500 were rewarded as he won the tournament after watching Scheffler miss the opportunity to improve his score to 12-under par and force a playoff. In hindsight, there were many moments where Scheffler’s blade let him down. Missing the five-foot birdie putt on 18 to force the playoff is the most apparent misstep. But he also missed an 11-foot birdie putt on the 17th hole. On the back nine in the final round, Scheffler missed three birdie putts inside 20 feet. He did not make a putt in the entire round outside 11 feet. He lost strokes on the green relative to the field for the fourth time in his twelve rounds going back to the start of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Perhaps most telling was a series of blunders in his second round on Friday. After a nice sand save, he missed a par putt that was inside six feet. While that is an understandable and unfortunate error, Scheffler magnified the problem by quickly setting up again for his bogey putt from 22 inches but lipped the ball around the hole for a double-bogey. He later described it as a “lapse of judgment” — but it may be even more telling. When your putter is the clear weakness in one’s game, abandoning one’s pre-shot ritual in resetting one’s body and mind after a frustrating result was the exposure of a lack of mental discipline. Where was his caddie to stop him from such a hasty reaction? Or, does his caddie lack the authority in their relationship to call him out? The best putters in the world never attempt to tap in a 1-foot, 10-inch putt after missing a makable par putt. The most disciplined and successful putters pick up their ball and reset their ritual process to meld their mental concentration with their physical execution. Scheffler is the best ball-striker in the world. A mental mistake like this is damning. Perhaps that’s what simply happens when one is trying to win their third straight PGA Tour event in a row?Scheffler is currently the favorite to win the Masters Championship coming up in two weeks — he is listed as a +400 favorite at DraftKings. I will not be investing in Scheffler at that price. Even if he is the best golfer in the world — and there are a few professionals on the LIV Tour who will take issue with that in Augusta — there is not nearly enough value in a 4-1 favorite given the volatility of a golf tournament. The leaderboard at the Houston Open demonstrates this. While Jaeger won the tournament at 12-under par, Scheffler was tied for second place at 11-under par with four other golfers. Another four pros finished at 10-under par — and then another three golfers were at 9-under par. When 13 pros are all within three strokes at the end of 72 holes, the value is with the field rather than even the best player in the world. Tiger Woods' history indicates that he only won an event that closely contested one out of every four times. Betting Scheffler at anything below -800 — and especially anything under -400 — is not a formula for success. At these prices, we will continue to look elsewhere on our weekly endeavors betting on the PGA Tour. Best of luck — Frank.

The Limitations of Season-Long NFL Power Ratings Exposed (again) as Kansas City Wins the Super Bowl (again)

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

The so-called “sharps” were on the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl— but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. We were on Kansas City — the Chiefs were our side for our 2023-24 NFL Game of the Year. Our reasoning was rewarded with Kansas City’s 25-22 victory. I concluded at the time that the sharps and the computer models were failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs had been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It was chip time now after reaching the Super Bowl again— so I was confident that the Chiefs would be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season. This team was different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group had faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team had found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it was chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possessed the best defense in the Mahomes era — they went into the Super Bowl holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They faced a San Francisco team that had good underlying numbers — but what if they were being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia did not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes appeared to be a mismatch — and it was Mahomes making big plays down the stretch while Purdy missed on some wide-open receivers in the second half of the Super Bowl. I had always appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that was no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. Spagnuolo revealed after the Super Bowl that he assigned two defensive players to act as spies to guard against his scrambling skills that played such an important role in their comeback victory against Detroit. Take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completed 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left. Spagnuolo would be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson seemed likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game. No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but I concluded that Kansas City had the edge in both coaching and with their defensive unit. The 49ers had the better skill position players — but then there was still the Mahomes versus Purdy matchup to consider. Even if Purdy was as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it was another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers were outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game going into the Super Bowl — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. We also correctly took the Under in this game in our 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. Those results made it three straight Super Bowls where we swept the side and total. Best of luck — Frank.

Anatomy of a 40-1 Winner/Handicapping Jake Knapp at the PGA Mexico Open

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

After a winning campaign with head-to-head props in the first seven PGA Tour events in 2024, we were able to score a big win at the PGA Mexico Open on Jake Knapp at 40-1 just in time before the tour moves to the East Coast. The rookie took a four-shot lead into the final round — but he did not make it easy on us as he was shaky with his driver early on and eventually gave that lead away after Sami Valimaki caught up to his score, helped by an early eagle on a Par 4. But then Valimaki caught some jitters while Knapp was steady with his chipping and putting. And while Knapp only hit two fairways off the tee all day, he pulled away for a two-stroke victory at 19-under par. Knapp was not my initial choice for the Long Shot Bet for our PGA Mexican Open Betting Report which always includes a Best Bet and Top Overlay Bet as well. The professional golfer outside the top ten favorites was considering at first glance was Maverick McNealy at 50-1 odds. But I dove deeper into my appreciation of Knapp, he elevated to my top Long Shot choice while being listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Knapp came into the week as the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What was exciting about Knapp was his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp has been focusing on ball speed off his club — and he was getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranked 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance going into the week — and his troubles with accuracy would be mitigated with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough at Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course.Knapp has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he had gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he had also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect with Knapp for the PGA Mexico Open was his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp was well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this. In completing the west coast swing that week, the PGA Tour was moving to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosted this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. It is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s were at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s played at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways were wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals had to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough had grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remained playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Besides cashing the 40-1 Long Shot ticket, we also cashed with Knapp in his Round One head-to-head props with Ryo Hisatsune. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that would make a big difference at this event. He ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranked 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. After a great close to the 2023 PGA Tour with first-place finishes in the final two events (concluding with the PGA Tour Championship in August — I take the fall events off to use that handicapping time on football), cashing the 40-1 ticket puts us up 16 units after the first eight events (assuming everyone plays three units per week on the Best Best, the Top Overlay Bet, and the Long Shot Bet) — meaning we have five straight weeks of free rolls to build the golf-specific bankroll. We go into the PGA Cognizant Classic on a 15 of 24 (63%) PGA head-to-head run with prop bets with our three targeted golfers as well. With THE Players Championship and the Masters just around the corner in the next six weeks, let’s keep it rolling!Best of luck — Frank.

Dan Campbell Screwed Dan Campbell (Along with the Lions and the Detroit Fan Base)

Wednesday, Jan 31, 2024

In my preseason deep dive on the Detroit Lions, one of my notes of concern regarded Dan Campbell’s proclivity to go for it on fourth down. In his first two seasons as their head coach, the Lions led the NFL in fourth down attempts. Detroit also attempted eight fake punts and was successful seven times. But with the higher expectations for the team, after they won eight of their final ten games last season, I wondered if Campbell’s aggressiveness would end up backfiring for his team. Aggressive play-calling is a way for underdogs to overachieve expectations. It made sense for Campbell to instill confidence in his team by taking these chances. These tactics also helped protect a suspect defense that was giving up plenty of points. But the problem with all the fake punts is that opponents become aware to be prepared for it. The surprise value of the trick has limited returns. Detroit converted on a fake punt early in the season — but when they tried it again in their Thanksgiving Day game against Green Bay, the Packers were ready for it. The Lions failed to execute the play — and Green Bay got the ball just outside the red zone. The Packers soon scored a touchdown to take a 29-14 lead — and they would go on to win by a 29-22 score. Perhaps the harbinger for the end of Detroit’s 2023-24 season took place last year in their game against New England. In that 29-0 loss, the Lions failed on all six of their fourth down attempts.Cut to Detroit’s regular season showdown at Dallas against the Cowboys late in the season. Campbell lost his cool by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions were too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. Campbell remained steadfast in not regretting his decision to simply kick the extra point and be willing to play in a tie game late in the fourth quarter. The seeds were planted for Detroit’s historic meltdown in the NFC Championship Game. The Lions enjoyed a dream first half on the road in San Francisco against the 49ers. And when faced with the opportunity late in the first half to try to score another touchdown with time running out, Campbell made the prudent and, in my mind, prudent decision to settle for a field goal rather than risking not scoring any points with time expiring. Detroit went into halftime with a 24-7 lead. For San Francisco to win, they would need to overcome a three-possession deficit. The 49ers got the ball first — the Lions scored a victory by holding them to just a field goal. 24-10. Detroit immediately moved the ball down the field with an effective rushing attack. But the play-calling got aggressive with a failed long pass to tight end Sam LaPorta setting up a third-and-five. The Lions chose to run the ball — as if it was two-down territory despite them being in field goal range. Then on fourth and a long one-yard, quarterback Jared Goff’s pass to Josh Reynolds was dropped. Granted a 31-10 lead after scoring a potential touchdown might have been the dagger. But neutralizing the Niners' initial field goal in the second half by matching those three points would have made it a 27-10 game with half the third quarter already burned. A three-possession lead would continue to squeeze the life out of a team and a fan base that had little to cheer about. Instead, San Francisco got the stop they needed. A few plays later, the Niners got very lucky when an overthrown deep pass from Brock Purdy got tipped up in the air which allowed Brandon Aiyuk to grab it for a 51-yard reception inside Detroit’s five-yard line. Moments later the 49ers are only trailing by seven points. For those of us who believe in momentum, the tables have suddenly turned. Perhaps the Momentum Gods would not intervene with the tipped ball if the Lions simply kicked the field goal. But a 27-17 lead would have felt much better when Detroit got the ball again. Instead, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs received a handoff deep on the Lions' side of the field suddenly led by only one score. Gibbs then fumbles, the Niners recover and score the tying touchdown. In a matter of a few moments, a game that seemed almost out of reach was now tied. And a franchise that had never reached the Super Bowl had suddenly blown a 17-point lead. Maybe Campbell’s aggressiveness helped Detroit win the NFC North and reach the playoffs. But losing cultures don’t flip simply because someone declares it over. Winning cultures come from winning games — and good head coaches are stewards of their players in managing games to secure victories. In this regard, Campbell failed. His decision-making was, in fact, the act of a loser — one who thought seizing a 21-point lead was necessary. He communicated to his team that taking the easier 17-point lead was not going to be enough. Campbell later defended his decision by uttering something about the 49ers taking back momentum by controlling the time of possession. The only second-half drive that San Francisco had was the one where they settled for a field goal. My dude, if the Niners were going to continue to embark on long-scoring drives, they were risking running out of time. They still needed three drives with just over 22 minutes left in the game. The field goal would have kept the pressure on. Pressure busts pipes. Even after all this, Campbell had one more ill-advised decision left in him. San Francisco scored a field goal to take a 27-24 lead. The Lions got the ball back and immediately moved down the field to get into field goal range. But once again, when faced with a fourth down, Campbell bypassed the potential game-tying field goal to go for it on fourth down. Once again, Detroit fails to convert. The 49ers move down the field to score a touchdown to take a ten-point lead with about three minutes left in the game. The Lions score a touchdown but then fail to recover an onside kick. The decision to forego a game-tying field represented the three-point margin in their 34-31 loss. While taking a potential 31-27 lead would have been better, the risk of missing the fourth down and creating the possibility of San Francisco scoring a touchdown to take a two-possession lead late in the game was of graver magnitude. I am aware of Expected Points Added models that called for the Lions to go for (both) fourth downs. Those models do not reveal their methodology regarding how they derive their numbers. Those models also do not take momentum into account — in fact, the underlying assumption is that momentum does not exist since it would invalidate their sample sizes since the data points may have circumstances no longer applicable. Who are you going to believe — businesses promoting their analytics or your lying eyes?In hindsight, Detroit’s second-half collapse was staggering. The fumble and the several dropped passes all happened after the missed fourth down when they had a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter. I consider it the most obvious example of negative momentum in action in recent history since the 2018 Western Conference Finals in the NBA when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight shots from 3-point range against Golden State. When discussing what happened in the famed Montreal Screwjob when professional wrestler Brett “the Hit Man” Hart lost his championship belt in an unscripted turn of events orchestrated by World Wrestling Federation owner Vince McMahon proclaimed in denying that he screwed Brett: “Brett screwed Brett.” Well, it’s now called the WWE for World Wrestling Entertainment and McMahon is now facing sex trafficking charges. McMahon broke kayfabe to justify why the script was changed for Hart in his last match with the company before leaving for a rival with this now-infamous quote. Watching Dan Campbell’s coaching performance in the NFC Championship Game reminded me of the line. Credit to San Francisco, but the Lions lost that game. Campbell screwed himself with those coaching decisions. He screwed his players were outplaying the 49ers and had put themselves in the position to win that game. And he screwed a fanbase that has not experienced the joy of an NFL championship since 1957.Brandon Staley got run out of town after making too many bad decisions despite his aggressiveness being defended by the supposed analytics. His players were initially on record for liking his tactics. But the losses piled up — and his players eventually turned on him. For those who think that cannot happen with this Lions team, just look at what happened to the Philadelphia Eagles. A year ago at this time, the Eagles were playing in the Super Bowl. Less than a year later, the culture inside the locker room completely eroded in a seven-game losing streak to end the season culminating in an embarrassing blowout loss in the playoffs. And Philadelphia has won another Super Bowl in 2018. Perhaps Campbell will learn from his mistakes. Coaching underdogs with a history of losing is one thing. Protecting double-digit leads in the playoffs is quite another. If Campbell does not grow, things could get very ugly much faster than expected in Motown. Best of luck — Frank.

Michigan Finally Silenced the Haters

Wednesday, Jan 31, 2024

There were plenty of casual dismissals of the Michigan Wolverines football team all season despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted by Bruce Feldman in The Athletic in the build-up to the College Football Playoffs where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It was funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan had won 24 games in a row in conference play. There were a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and the Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. Granted, the Michigan passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that was simply a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points should have been seen as a sign of utter domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. In the game against Maryland before the showdown with the Buckeyes, McCarthy’s foot injury kept him from planting his foot to throw the football. Still, the Wolverines scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. Critics also referenced Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State should have demonstrated that Harbaugh could prepare his team for big games. Michigan was been the most consistent team in the country going into the playoffs. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense was elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he had ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. He must not have been one of the rival conference coaches contacted by Feldman. Heading into the playoffs, I considered the notion of SEC dominance already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Were they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops came in which generally projected the Wolverines as a bigger favorite against Alabama than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). Michigan dominated the Crimson Tide in the first half of their Semifinal showdown but only went into halftime with a 13-10 lead. Special teams mishaps plagued the Wolverines from taking a larger lead. Alabama turned the tables in the third quarter to take control of the game — but McCarthy engineered a late fourth-quarter comeback to force overtime where Michigan scored the opening touchdown before stopping the Crimson Tide on downs to win the game. When the game was on the line, the Wolverines beat Alabama at the point of attack at the line of scrimmage and demonstrated more speed than the team with all the blue-chip five-star players. Michigan took their 27-20 victory into the National Championship Game against Washington. Once again, the betting public and many of the “sharps” were on the Huskies — especially with them getting 4.5 or more points and above the key number of 4. I committed to the Wolverines in our College Football Game of the Year. Michigan controlled the game and pulled away with a 34-13 victory and their first national championship in the BCS era. But the rival Big Ten coaches may have received their ultimate wish with Harbaugh deciding to return to the NFL to coach the Los Angeles Chargers. Now Harbaugh is not only out of the Big Ten, but perhaps the most vocal head coach in football regarding paying college athletes is no longer in the NCAA. In hindsight, the personal motivations critics had in downplaying this year’s Michigan team may offer the best explanation of their words. Best of luck — Frank.

The Foolish and the Folly: Guessing Motivation in Bowl Games

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

If I had a nickel for every time I heard or read something to the effect of “handicapping college football bowl games is all about assessing motivation”, this would already be my most profitable college football bowl season in history. I need to expunge just how monumentally ineffective and ill-advised this approach is. First, if there is an apparent “motivational mismatch” in a bowl game, the books already take this into account. This is a simple concept yet it is overwhelming and cannot be understated. If and when oddsmakers perceive that coaching changes, opt-outs, or transfer portal entries will impact the way the market will respond to the possible motivational shifts in the game, they move the number. For a bettor to hope to claim an edge regarding the motivation intangible, their argument would need to be something like “the current line does not adequately assess the motivational differences between these teams, even relative to the talent discrepancies.” We bet numbers, not teams.In a vast majority of cases, those lacking this awareness will base their warrant for backing a side on a motivational angle that the books already priced into their number. Simply reasserting the rationale without accounting for the line movement is, in practice, counter-productive. This is like betting against a team simply because their starting quarterback is injured. Yep — and the books moved the line!The second reason why assessing motivations is Fool’s Gold is that it is pure guesswork. What’s the evidence for one team being more motivated than the other? If it starts with “I don’t think …”, then put on your big shoes to go along with your red nose and flower on your lapel that squirts water because you are a clown. One of the reasons that it is clown reasoning is that there is not any evidence to back it up. If you are guessing, then you are losing. A monkey may have correctly guessed a coin flip landing heads five times in a row, but let the noise settle. Betting without evidence is the surest way to lose all your money. Deploying critical thinking in assessing actionable evidence is hard — but doing it correctly leads to profits. If the guessing aspect was bad enough, the fact that a handicapper/bettor can never understand and appreciate what is in the hearts and minds of the players in question should ward off thoughtful individuals from even attempting to embark on these paths. Bluntly, sometimes players and coaches become motivated simply because they are being told they have nothing in which to be motivated. The “lack of motivation” cries may actually help light the fire of motivation. Just for fun, I am going to review the previous bowl games this year to identify and expose when the conventional wisdom motivational narrative got upended by actual results. Arizona Bowl: Wyoming controlled the motivational angle with their long-time head coach Craig Bohl retiring after the game — and they were playing a Toledo team shellshocked after getting upset in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game by Miami (OH). The market pushed the Cowboys to be a 4.5-point favorite — and while Wyoming scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 16-15 victory, it was those holding Rockets tickets that went to the window. Orange Bowl: It was Florida State that had something to prove after getting snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee — and why would Georgia care about playing an undermanned Seminoles team after winning two straight National Championships? Of course, Florida State was missing nearly two dozen players from opt-outs to the transfer portal — but that should have been yet another reason to forego advancing a motivation argument. After their 63-3 victory, it looked like the Bulldogs were motivated to send a message that they should have made the playoffs. Music City Bowl: How motivated was Maryland given all their players in the transfer portal and with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa opting out of the game? Apparently, the dudes getting playing opportunities now like quarterback Billy Edwards were quite inspired to play well. The Terrapins upset an Auburn team “motivated to rebound their heartbreaking loss to Alabama in the Iron Bowl and attract recruits in Nashville” by a 31-13 score. The above are just the first three games from yesterday. We can do this for every game. It’s just so dumb. But, guessing about motivation is one way to disguise that one’s betting/handicapping is an evidence-optional endeavor. So, there's that. Given this, how should bettors handicap bowl games? The same way they handicap every other football and sporting event: with evidence that provides insight relative to the betting line. But isn't this even more difficult given all the opt-outs and players that enter the transfer portal? Yep -- and I find myself passing in more and more bowl games as they become treated as preseason games for the next college football season. I also find myself passing on more and more NFL preseason games when depth rotations become more unpredictable as more and first and second stringers do not play. Uncertainty is a reason to pass. Evidence is the shining light, and preferably lots of it.Best of luck — Frank.

The Philadelphia Eagles -- Overrated or Battle-Tested and Resilient?

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

When the Philadelphia Eagles traveled to Seattle to play the Seahawks on Monday Night Football on December 18th, their 10-3 record at the time was belied by some historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there had been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and the Eagles ranked 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. Philly’s defense was simply getting pounded. They had allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary was giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third-down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third-down pass plays was last in the league. They were also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone.Despite being road favorites in the field goal range, Philadelphia got upset in that game by a 20-17 score. We were on the Seahawks in that game with our 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year. As I concluded in handicapping the Eagles’ Super Bowl showdown with Kansas City, I considered their stout defensive numbers last season to be largely a product of their soft schedule. I wrote this after my deep dive on them for my preseason prep:“How good was the Eagles defense actually last season? They ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason.”In hindsight, the loss of those five starters has played a role in the decline in their defensive numbers. The loss of defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon should not be underestimated as well. And certainly playing the potent San Francisco offense in their out-of-divisional schedule along with quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, and Kirk Cousins was an upgrade in terms of offensive competition. Since that loss to the Seahawks, the Eagles held off the New York Giants by a 33-25 score before getting upset at home to Arizona in Gannon’s return to Lincoln Financial Field as the Cardinals head coach. The loss to Arizona has risked them winning the NFC East and hosting a playoff game in the wild-card round. They seem to have taken a step back.But bettors should be careful in simply thinking the Eagles are overrated now. Perhaps they were overrated last season — but their playoff experience does leave them more battle-tested now. From that perspective, their eight victories decided by one-scoring possession may be the by-product of a veteran and confident team knowing their best performances need to take place in the postseason. Successful handicapping requires assessing numbers rather than teams — but Philadelphia may offer some intriguing opportunities in early 2024.Best of luck — Frank.

Sean Payton has Russell Wilson Cooking Again — But It's From the Wrong Saints Quarterback’s Recipe Book

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Denver Broncos have picked themselves off the mat from a humiliating 70-20 loss early in the season to win five games in a row and get back into the AFC playoff hunt race with a 6-5 record. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced 15 turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they are allowing only 16.5 Points-Per-Game in their last six games. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” according to his many defenders in the national media. From this view, Wilson’s problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”. Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He had less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games and five of his last six games after Denver’s 29-12 win against Cleveland when Wilson only attempted 22 passes. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). Wilson did throw 35 passes in the Broncos’ victory against Minnesota on November 19th, but he needed the final drive to get into the 30s with his pass attempts with the game script forcing Payton to rely almost exclusively on Wilson’s arm. Admittedly, Wilson has been very effective in engineering two game-winning drives during this recent winning streak. And he has an outstanding 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But Denver did not sign him for $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $50 million signing bonus for a quarterback averaging only 26 pass attempts per game. The Taysom Hill comparison is apt. In Payton’s last season with New Orleans in 2021-22 in the year after Drew Brees retired, Hill started four games in the second half of the season where he was the exclusive quarterback and did not share playing time with Trevor Siemian. Hill averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game while only attempting more than 28 passes in a game once when he threw the ball 41 times in a 10-point loss to Dallas. For comparison’s sakes, Payton had Brees average 34.3 pass attempts in his final regular season in 2020 in games where he was knocked out because of injury — he attempted 30 or more passes in nine of the 11 regular season games in which he did not get injured. Perhaps Payton has pushed the right buttons to get Wilson back to the version of himself that he was in Seattle — the problem is that that is the version that was widely criticized as being too conservative and holding back his talents. The entire fever dream of Wilson getting liberated from Pete Carroll’s defensive philosophies was that he would be that he could finally COOK working with an offensive head coach. Nathaniel Hackett demonstrated things were more complicated than simply inserting an offensive mentality. And if Payton has let Wilson into the kitchen, the recipe book is the same one he used with Taysom Hill — a “quarterback” who cannot displace a guy making only $37.5 million per yard in Derek Carr in New Orleans. If you think Wilson is “fixed”, then you are moving the goalposts. Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Five -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.AKRON: Is the improvement in the second half of the season under first-year head coach Joe Moorhead sustainable heading into his second season? After generating only 4.9 Yards-Per-Play in their first nine games, the Zips averaged 5.7 YPP in their last three contests. On defense, Akron limited their final three opponents to 4.3 YPP after surrendering 6.6 YPP in their first nine games. Despite a 1-7 record in the Mid-American Conference, the Zips outgained their opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game — and they outgained their conference rivals by +109 YPG in their last three contests. Turnovers played a large role in holding them back as they ranked tied for third in the FBS with a -13 net turnover margin. They had a 1-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Moorehead has 15 starters back from that group. ARIZONA STATE: The Herm Edwards era unceremoniously ended after a 1-2 start last year amidst being a target of NCAA investigations for recruiting violations. With a mass exodus of players in the transfer portal, the program has been sitting on a ticking time bomb that finally went off. After hitting rock bottom with a 3-9 record, Oregon co-offensive coordinator and former Arizona State graduate Kenny Dillingham takes over as the new head coach. The 33-year-old faces a massive rebuild despite 13 starters back from last season. There are at least 48 new players not the roster this season including 32 players coming in from the transfer portal. ARKANSAS STATE: The Red Wolves return 11 starters from their team that finished just 3-9 in the third season under head coach Butch Jones. The former Tennessee head coach has brought in the top recruiting class in the Sun Belt Conference in two straight seasons — but those players have yet to change the results on the field. With a 9-26 record in his three seasons, this is a crucial season where results need to be seen with Jones clearly on the hot seat. ARMY: How successful will the Black Knights transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation? Head coach Jeff Monken is abandoning the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the recent change in the cut-blocking rules has hampered the effectiveness of the triple option scheme. Army’s scoring average fell from 32.8 Points-Per-Game to 28.6 PPG last season after that rule change. While the Black Knights finished the season with a 6-6 record, two of their victories were against FCS teams and two more of their wins were against the lowly Massachusetts and Connecticut. BALL STATE: Was the Cardinals’ Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season? Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since with an 11-14 record overall and a 7-9 conference mark in the last two years. Neu is on the hot seat with just the one winning season in his previous seven years as the Cardinals head coach. Fourteen starters are back from the group that finished 5-7 last year — but they lost some of their best players. Quarterback John Paddock transferred to Illinois while running back Carson Steele left for UCLA. They lost their top two receivers to graduation — and they are replacing three defensive backs who are now on NFL rosters. BOISE STATE: The Broncos come off a 10-4 season after a 35-32 win against North Texas in the Frisco Bowl. But after going 8-0 in conference play in the regular season, Boise State got upset at home by Fresno State by a 28-16 score in the Mountain West Championship Game. Third-year head coach Andy Avalos returns 14 starters from that team including eight super seniors playing in their sixth season. The offense has nine starters back led by sophomore quarterback Taylen Green who won the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year Award. In their ten games with Green as their starting quarterback, the Broncos generated 428.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 32.5 Points-Per-Game. The defense only returns five starters and just nine of the 18 players who logged-in 250 or more snaps. Depth is a concern on that side of the ball — defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson needs the transfer players brought in to meet expectations. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. BOWLING GREEN: Will the Falcons continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation? Last year, they upset Marshall but got upset by Eastern Kentucky and beaten by Ohio by 24 points. They were also fortunate in an upset victory against a Toledo team using a backup quarterback looking ahead to the MAC Championship Game. How do we judge a team that was 5-2 in games decided by one scoring possession while pulling off four upset victories but getting upset twice themselves along the way? Head coach Scott Loeffler has 13 starters back from that group that finished 6-7 overall but 5-3 in the conference. BUFFALO: Why did this program not bring in a single transfer from an FBS program while losing several players — is that a sign that third-year head coach Maurice Linguist is comfortable with the roster and culture he is building or is it a harbinger that this team is going to take a step back from their 7-6 campaign last year? I thought Linguist had been doing a great job using the transfer portal to bring in Power Five conference players to fill holes in the starting lineup on both sides of the ball — so the lack of activity was surprising. The Bulls bring back only ten starters from last year’s team that beat Georgia Southern by a 23-21 score in the Camellia Bowl.COLORADO STATE: Can the Rams make another jump in head coach Jay Norvell’s second season as they did in the second half of last year? Norvell brought 11 players with him last season when he left Nevada after five seasons -- but he was down to only 59 scholarship players at one point last year after cleaning house. In their first six games, they only averaged 243.7 Yards-Per-Game. But the team eventually bought in to his expectations and the teaching of the coaching staff as the Rams outgained their last four opponents by +76 Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-9 overall record. The offense improved to 324.2 total YPG in their last six games while the defense held their Mountain West Conference opponents to 20 Points-Per-Game and just 325 YPG. Now after signing perhaps the best freshman class in program history, Norvell is back up to 85 scholarship players — and 15 starters return. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.EASTERN MICHIGAN: Can the Eagles continue to overachieve under head coach Chris Creighton? Eastern Michigan got outgained in Mid-American Conference play by -9.0 Yards-Per-Game but still posted a 5-3 conference record. They pulled off five upset wins — and they had a 4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession which helped them finish 9-4 with their second bowl victory in program history in their 41-27 victory against San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Critics can continue to claim these are outlier results but the Eagles have pulled off 22 upset victories in the last six seasons. Entering his tenth year as head coach, Eastern Michigan has seen 53 of their last 73 games decided by one scoring possession. FLORIDA ATLANTIC: Former Texas head coach Tom Herman takes over running the Owls as they move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. Eighteen starters return from last year’s group that finished 5-7. The defense ranked 106th in the nation by giving up 424.8 total Yards-Per-Game but 18 of the 19 players who were on the field for at least 250 snaps are back. Herman added another nine players in the transfer portal in an attempt to improve the talent base. He also used the portal to upgrade the quarterback room by bringing in Daniel Richardson from Central Michigan and Casey Thompson from Nebraska (and who played for Herman at Texas). FAU underperformed expectations last season — but the upgrade in conferences may be difficult for a program that has lost 27 games in a row against Power Five conference opponents. GEORGIA: The Bulldogs won their second-straight national championship last year by completing their perfect 15-0 campaign with a 65-7 blowout victory against TCU in the National Championship Game. Head coach Kirby Smart now attempts to lead Georgia to become the first college football team to win three straight national titles since Minnesota accomplished this task in 1934-1936. Thirteen starters return to begin that question — one of those players is not their starting quarterback the last two years with Stetson Bennett on to the NFL. The offensive line may be the best in the country. The defense returns seven starters and 12 of the 16 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. While the blue-chippers remain seemingly a recyclable energy in Athens, the drain of NFL-ready talent may be beginning to take its toll with flashes of complacency on that side of the ball. LSU and Ohio State combined to score 71 points against them before they shut down an overmatched Horned Frogs offense. INDIANA: Head coach Tom Allen is on the hot seat in his seventh season with the Hoosiers. Since producing a surprising 6-2 record in the 2020 season impacted by COVID, Indiana has lost 18 of their 24 games — including 16 losses in their 18 games against fellow Big Ten competition. The Hoosiers are losing in the transfer portal wars. Recruiting has suffered until last year, when he pulled in a top-30 class in 2022. This year’s team lost 30 players who were either graduating seniors or who entered the portal. Allen did bring in 25 transfer players, including 16 on the defensive side of the ball. IOWA STATE: Does the Cyclones’ recent inability to win close games due for regression — or is it systemic a deeper problem inside head coach Matt Campbell’s program? Iowa State has lost 10 of their last 11 games decided by one scoring possession. They had a 1-6 record in one-score games last season. They finished the year with a 4-8 record despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game — and in Big 12 play, they had a 1-8 record despite ranking sixth in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +52 net YPG. Turnovers played a role in holding them back as did an inefficient offense inside the Red Zone. But the lack of athleticism on the roster may simply get exposed at key moments of the game. After seven years, perhaps Campbell and his coaching staff deserve credit for an overachieving roster — but without NFL talent like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall (and David Montgomery before him), the talent simply isn’t there to execute against the better teams in the Big 12. MISSISSIPPI: Ole Miss opened last season with a 7-1 mark before stumbling down the stretch with five losses in their last six contests including their final four games after a 42-25 loss to Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. Despite a 4-4 record in the SEC, they outgained their conference opponents by +79.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Rebels ranked eighth in the nation by generating 496.4 total YPG — but their defense let them down in the second half of the season by giving up 35 Points-Per-Game in their last seven contests. Those final seven opponents averaged 211 rushing YPG. Head coach Lane Kiffin hired Pete Golding as his new defensive coordinator who had been the defensive coordinator at Alabama for the last five seasons. Seven starters return on that side of the ball. The offense returns nine starters led by junior Jaxson Dart at quarterback. The former USC transfer passed for 2974 yards with 20 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions and he added another 614 rushing yards. Despite the 16 starters, Kiffin may be relying too much on the transfer portal at the expense of building a culture that can compete with the elite members of the conference. NORTH CAROLINA: The Tar Heels had a 9-1 record after ten games but lost their last four contests to end the season including a 39-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. Head coach Mach Brown has turned the program around that he returned to five years ago after hitting rock bottom in 2019 with a 2-9 record. Yet it still seems as if his teams are not meeting up to their expectations in the ACC. The nine victories last year were the most the Tar Heels have won in Brown’s second tenure with the program. I have questions about the underlying culture. Is Brown too dependent on the transfer portal? Players on the defensive side of the ball are not being developed to meet their recruiting rankings. North Carolina ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 436.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense scored only 20.1 Points-Per-Game in their last four games which was nearly half the 40.1 PPG they generated in their first ten games. Seventeen starters return led by ACC Player of the Year Drake May at quarterback. Yet will many be surprised if, once again, the defense disappoints and the team fails to beat the upper echelon of the ACC? NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Did the Huskies underachieve last season — or is inconsistency seemingly the consistent characteristic for this team under head coach Thomas Hammock? After a 5-7 season in his first year with the program, Northern Illinois was 0-6 in the COVID 2020 season. They responded by winning the Mid-American Conference championship in 2021 before taking a few steps back last year with a 3-9 record despite returning 18 starters. Hammock can point to the slew of injuries his team suffered. And despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies got upset six times and lost four of their six games decided by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters return including seventh-year senior Rocky Lombardi who quarterbacked their title run two years ago. NORTH TEXAS: Did the powers at be at North Texas push the panic button too soon when firing head coach Sean Littrell despite him leading the Mean Green to the Conference USA Championship Game? After their 48-27 loss on the road against UTSA in that contest, Littrell was let go with critics citing his 0-5 record in bowl games. But remember that he inherited a 1-11 team that had not played in a bowl game since 2014 — and he got them to six bowl games in his seven years with the program. Now as the team leaves Conference USA for the most difficult American Athletic Conference, they bring in a rookie head coach at the FBS level in Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple was the offensive coordinator at Washington State last season after a successful four-year run as the head coach at Incarnate Word. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team — and they brought in junior quarterback Chandler Rogers from UL-Monroe in the transfer portal. But what are the expectations in Denton for this football team — and are they reasonable? OKLAHOMA: Brent Venables as an assistant coach for 29 seasons which included 13 years as the Sooners’ defensive coordinator under Bob Stoops. He returned to Norman as the head coach last season with high expectations while replacing Lincoln Riley who went out west to USC. Oklahoma had not lost for than two games in seven straight seasons. Along the way, Venables felt compelled to make his feelings known about Deion Sanders’ Colorado team and the negative impact on team culture was his aggressive use of the transfer portal. Yet a year later and after a 6-7 record where the Sooners failed to finish the season ranked in the national polls for the first time since 2014, guess who changed his tune on the transfer portal? Venables took full advantage of the transfer portal with 63 new players on the roster. And the head coach bemoaning the importance of continuity when it comes to culture had overseen 56 of the 71 players that suited up for the Cheez-It Bowl (a 35-32 loss to Florida State) leave the program in one way or another. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is one of seven starters to return on offense — but that unit lost several key player makers. On the other side of the ball, there remains the question of whether the talent exists — especially in the front seven — to operate the same schemes that Venables had so much success with recently with Clemson. After their first losing season since 1998, the question will also be raised that while Venables can talk the talk as a head coach, can he walk the walk with these new responsibilities in the twilight of his career?RUTGERS: The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters from a group that finished 4-8 last season. Since Greg Schiano’s return to coaching a program that previously served as their head coach for 11 seasons, he has overseen just a 12-22 record in three seasons. The Rutgers current culture has been described as “stressful” which is perhaps not the best way to compete in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal. It may be telling that Schiano only brought in eight transfer players. The defense returns eight players from a unit that ranked 37th in the nation by giving up only 349.7 total Yards-Per-Game. But Rutgers only won one of their nine games in Big Ten play — and they got outgained by -133 YPG against conference opponents. SOUTH FLORIDA: Is the challenge for this program too big for rookie head coach Alex Goresh? The Bulls have won only four games in the last three seasons after their 1-11 campaign last season. They have a 1-33 record against FBS programs since 2019. Not only were they winless in their eight games against American Athletic Conference foes last season, but they got outgained by -116 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Goresh comes in from Tennessee after serving as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons (albeit with the Volunteers’ head coach Josh Huepel calling the plays). Thirteen starters return from last year’s team but only four on the offensive side of the ball in a unit that was hit hard in the transfer market. The defense has nine starters back plus another 11 transfers in an attempt to upgrade the talent to a unit that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG. TCU: The Horned Frogs were a great story last year as they took on the role of Cinderella to reach the National Championship Game under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes — before harsh reality set in when facing the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. Dykes was masterful in using the transfer portal last season — but is it simply too much to ask for him to pull off that trick again given all the losses this team has experienced since that 65-7 loss to Georgia? The Horned Frogs return only 10 starters after losing eight players to the NFL draft and another three players to the NFL as undrafted free agents. The team also lost their brilliant offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to the same job at Clemson. Dykes is recruiting the State of Texas well — and he seems to be winning with the transfer portal. But the losses may be simply overwhelming for a team whose magical run included a 6-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. TENNESSEE: The Volunteers return 12 starters from the team that finished 11-2 after their 31-14 victory against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Head coach Josh Heupel’s explosive offensive scored 50 or more points six times including their 52 points against the tough Alabama defense. But it is not a given that sixth-year senior quarterback Joe Milton can step in and maintain that high level of proficiency. Milton has lost the starting quarterback job twice in his career — once at Michigan and then here at Tennessee when he was the presumptive starter before getting overtaken by Hendon Hooker who was drafted into the NFL last spring. Milton has a canon of an arm — but he is not very mobile and accuracy and decision-making remain concerns in the passing game. The Vols defense returns seven starters and 14 of the 21 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is overseeing an aggressive unit that registered 27 sacks and forced 22 turnovers. They also ranked 20th in the nation by only giving up 115.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game. But their pass defense ranked 126th in the nation by surrendering 289.5 passing YPG — and they ranked 90th overall in total defense by giving up 405.3 total YPG. TEXAS: Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to bring in great recruiting classes — but the results on the field have only produced a 13-12 record in his first two seasons in Austin. Sixteen starters are back from the team that finished 8-5 last year after a 27-20 loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl. The Longhorns lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession last year. The talent level remains very high for this Texas roster — but the issue remains the results on the field. Is redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers really the guy? His best performances were against unranked opponents — and he only completed 29 of 74 passes (39.2%) of his passes of more than 15 air yards, ranking 80th in the FBS last season, Five-star freshman Arch Manning breathes down his neck to take his job if he slips up. TEXAS A&M: After five losses in the SEC by six points or less, the culture that head coach Jimbo Fisher needs to be questioned. Despite consistent top-10 recruiting classes and signing a 10-year, $95 million extension in 2021, this program seems to be moving in the wrong direction after their 9-1 campaign in 2020-21. The Aggies did upset an Alabama team ranked number one in the nation at the time the next season, but that team finished 8-4. Last year’s team posted a 5-7 record with only two victories in their eight SEC games is an unacceptable result given all the talent recruited and bought to play at College Station. In hindsight, perhaps Fisher’s aggressiveness in attracting recruits with NIL money contributed to the problem he now has. His solution for this crucial year was to bring into controversial new coordinators. Former Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin runs the defense as his career moves forward after one of his players died from heat stroke during his time with the Terrapins. It was later reported that the atmosphere in that program was rife with intimidation and abuse. Durkin’s rap sheet is mild when compared to that of Bobby Petrino in his various tenures at the University of Arkansas and Louisville as well as his brief stint in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons. Fisher has given up the play-calling to accommodate Petrino. With this powder keg of a coaching situation in this environment, what could go wrong? The Aggies' offense remains plagued by ineffective offensive lines. They ranked 100th in the nation by scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game. After ranking no worse than 32nd in the nation in total defense while giving up no more than 348.4 YPG in the first four years under Phillips, Texas A&M surrendered 365.1 YPG which ranked 51st in the nation. Perhaps the All-Star collection of college football minds can reverse these trends. Or, perhaps Fisher does not survive the season if the losses continue to pile up. TEXAS STATE: Former Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne takes over a program that has not had a winning season since 2014. In the previous four seasons under head coach Jake Spavital, the Bobcats were just 13-31. Kinne led Incarnate Word to the FCS semifinals with a high-powered offense that generated 51.5 Points-Per-Game and 581 Yards-Per-Game. The former Tulsa quarterback and then later the co-offensive coordinator at Central Florida wants to dictate tempo on offense by embracing fast and slow tempo depending on the game situation. He relied on over 40 transfers in the portal (including seven from Incarnate Word) to join a team returning 11 starters. Texas State finished 4-8 last year but they lost six of their eight games in Sun Belt play while getting outgained by -88 YPG which ranked 12th in the conference. TOLEDO: Will the Rockets’ Mid-American Conference championship last year open the doors for them to begin consistently dominating the conference? Granted, that was the second MAC title in head coach Jason Candle’s seven seasons with the program — but there has been a sentiment that he has underachieved relative to the quality of his recruiting classes during his tenure that have usually been the top of the league. Toledo reached the MAC Championship Game to then beat Ohio by a 17-7 score despite four of their losses being by seven points or less — with three of those losses in conference play. Critics of Candle will point to four upset losses as continuing evidence that his teams too often fall flat. TROY: Is regression all but inevitable for the Trojans after a 12-2 campaign where they beat Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game before an 18-12 victory against UTSA in the Cure Bowl? Under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall, Troy posted a 6-1 record in games decided by one possession or less — and they pulled off four upset wins. Only 12 starters return from that team with the defense replacing five of their top eight tacklers along with defensive coordinator Shiel Wood who took the same job at Tulane. But nine of the 16 players who took at least 300 snaps are back this season — and the offense will once again be led by senior quarterback Gunnar Watson and All-Sun Belt Conference running back Kimani Vidal. UL-LAFAYETTE: Was their 6-7 campaign under first-year head coach Mike Desmormeaux a blip on the radar a blip or a sign of things to come after their previous head coach Billy Napier left to take the Florida job? The Ragin’ Cajuns did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +36 Yards-Per-Game despite a 4-4 mark in conference play. They lost all four of their games decided by one scoring possession including a 23-16 loss to Houston in the Independence Bowl. However, the roster is bleeding players away in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — including two starters on defense after spring practice. UTSA: How will the Roadrunners adjust to the upgrade in competition in their move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference? They come off a Conference USA title after completing their perfect 8-0 conference record with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the conference championship game. UTSA has won 20 of their last 23 games against Conference USA opponents — but they are just 11-7 in their last 18 games against teams outside that conference. They have lost ten games in a row against ranked opponents. Sixteen starters return this season including their quarterback Frank Harris who will be playing in his seventh year with the program. He leads an offense that ranked 12th in the nation last year by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense has eight starters and 11 players back that logged in 300 or more snaps last season. VIRGINIA: Is the jury out already on second-year head coach Tony Elliott? The longtime Clemson offensive coordinator struggled in his first season with the Cavaliers with a 3-7 record — and now he is dealing with a host of challenges on and off the field. Elliott lacked a professional demeanor by ripping his assistant coaches in post-game press conferences as the team lost six of their final seven games. Certainly, the decision to cut their season short after the gun shooting tragedy on campus that directly impacted the team then complicated matters. Virginia seems to be losing in the transfer portal market. Senior quarterback Brennan Armstrong left for North Carolina State — and Elliott brought in Tony Muskett from Monmouth as his replacement. Replacing a veteran QB who has led the nation since 2019 by averaging 436.1 total Yards-Per-Game against FBS opponents with a QB from the FCS level seems to be a downgrade. Given all this, can Elliott learn from his mistakes and regroup to lead this inexperienced team? WAKE FOREST: Is the Demon Deacons’ seven-game bowl streak in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson? Only 11 starters return from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Six starters are back from a defensive unit whose numbers look better due to holding Army and VMI to ten points apiece. The Demon Deacons still ranked 81st in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and they ranked 92nd in the FBS by giving up 406.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They allowed 30 or more points seven times. WESTERN MICHIGAN: How steep a climb does first-year head coach Lance Taylor face with the Broncos firing head coach Tim Lester after the program’s first losing season since 2013? Last year’s team finished 5-7 overall with a 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference but got outgained by -28 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. It was the decline of the production on offense that may have done Lester in despite his 37-32 record in his six seasons with the program. The Broncos ranked 124th in the nation by averaging only 301.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They also ranked 118th in the FBS by scoring 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 21 points or less in nine of their 12 games. Taylor was Louisville’s offensive coordinator last year but he may need some time to rebuild this offense since the quarterback room again features second-year freshman Treyson Bourguet and redshirt sophomore Jack Salopek. The offense completed only 49.9% of their passes last year. The coaching change led to an exodus of players leaving the program in the transfer portal including 1000-yard running back Sean Tyler and leading receiver Corey Crooms who both joined former Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. Linebacker Ryan Selig also left for Minnesota -- leaving the defense with only two returning starters and just three of the 12 players that logged in 250 or more snaps last year. WISCONSIN: Luke Fickell takes over as head coach after posting a 57-17 record at Cincinnati which included an appearance in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator has eight starters back on defense from a group that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game. That side of the ball should remain excellent. The concern is on the other side of the line of scrimmage after the Badgers only generated 363.8 total YPG, ranking 90th in the FBS. Wisconsin has a talented running back returning in junior Braelon Allen who rushed for 1242 yards last year. But quarterback play was lacking in previous head coach Paul Chryst’s tenure. Fickell addressed that issue by bringing in sixth-year senior Tanner Mordecai from SMU. With 24 career starts under his belt, Mordecai has passed for 7152 yards with 72 touchdown passes in the last two seasons. Fickell also tapped former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense — but I have questions if installing his up-tempo Air Raid is a good fit. The Badgers’ culture has emphasized physicality and defense in the past. Trying to replicate a Big 12 offense in the chilly Madison, Wisconsin weather may have drawbacks. And Mordecai is not nearly as mobile as someone like Drake Maye who was the last quarterback Longo coached two years ago. Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Four -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

NFL 2023-24 Preview, Part Two -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 AFC Teams

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team takes about an hour to 90 minutes of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my AFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Lamar Jackson contract extension drama is finally over — but will this offense operate at a higher level if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken grants Jackson’s seeming request to want to pass the ball more often? Jackson claims he wants to run the ball less -- and while that sounds nice, in theory, it may take away the aspect of his game that makes him special. The receiving corps seems improved after drafting Zay Flowers in the first round and signing Odell Beckham, Jr. as a free agent to join wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens offense was stagnating schematically under previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman — and Monken has demonstrated willingness and skill to adapt his schemes to the talent on the roster. But while Jackson’s passing skills have improved over the years, he is not likely to ever thrive with his deep passes. Will this experiment work?BUFFALO BILLS: This a franchise that appears to be still reeling from their overtime loss to Kansas City from the 2021-22 season when they blew a touchdown lead when kicking off with just 13 seconds left on the clock. The Bills behaved like a team trying to win the AFC Championship Game and redeem themselves from that loss in September — rather than engaging in the long journey which is the new season. This was a team that was wound very tight — as evidenced by the meltdown of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a failed fourth down attempt in Miami for their first loss of the season in late September. A mass shooting and two deadly blizzards followed — all before the Damar Hamlin scare that canceled their game with Cincinnati late in the season on Monday Night Football. By the time of their showdown at home against Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs, this team was out of gas, physically and emotionally. A fundamental problem this team has yet to fix under Dorsey’s leadership on offense is a credible four-minute offense to protect leads. CINCINNATI BENGALS: Is Joe Burrow not getting enough help on the offensive side of the ball? The Bengals lost tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Samaje Perine in free agency. They did sign Irv Smith as a free agent from Minnesota but he has never been as productive a pass catcher as Hurst has been in the league. They also drafted Illinois’ Chase Brown in the fifth round of the NFL draft — and while he has promise as a runner, he is not likely to replace Perine’s 38 catches out of the backfield. Perine averaged 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry last season while Joe Mixon generated only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite being asked to rush more than twice the time as Perine’s 95 attempts. Perine is excellent in pass protection which is an area where Brown will not possess similar skills — and that brings us to the biggest question for this team. The Bengals did improve from 31st in the NFL in 2021-22 to 15th last season in adjusted sacks allowed — but the blocking technique being taught by the coaching staff to the offensive line remains criticized as substandard by some. They poached left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. from Kansas City — but it is telling that the Chiefs led by a former offensive lineman in Andy Reid did not seem anxious about resigning him themselves.DENVER BRONCOS: Can head coach Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson? It is no coincidence that Payton is now the head coach in Denver after Wilson made it clear he wanted to emulate the style of Drew Brees in the second half of his career now liberated from the shackles of the Seattle run-first offense so he could finally let the world See Him Cook! Despite his claims of showing up at 7 AM in the preseason to help the coaching staff install his desired plays, it was rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett who received most of the blame for Wilson’s disastrous season where he produced career-lows in most QB categories. Payton was just the man who could get Wilson’s career back on track — even if that meant, unironically, embracing the schemes of Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was Enemy Number One in the Let Russ Cook extended cinematic universe. Payton faces a dilemma that only a time machine or a lobotomy can fix. He could install an offense similar to what was working with Brees in the twilight of his career — but does Wilson have the vision and the on-the-field smarts to replicate what Brees was doing in operating that quick strike offense out of the shotgun? Wilson has never had a similar accuracy as Brees either. Instead, Payton could revert to schemes from which Wilson had success in Seattle (see Schottenheimer, Brian) — but does the 34-year-old have enough juice left in his legs to be a legitimate threat on the ground? Wilson’s success was as an improvising jazz artist — and here comes Payton as a prog rock artist who would meet with Brees for hours the night before the game to fine-tune the hours of game planning that had already been invested into the week to coordinate final decisions. HOUSTON TEXANS: It’s hard to be optimistic about the Texans, They have not won more than four games in three straight seasons. They have finished last in Yards-Per-Drive in two consecutive seasons. They ranked last season in rush defense by allowing 170.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They have their fourth head coach in five seasons with DeMeco Ryans taking over for Lovie Smith last season. After finishing 11-38-1 in their last three seasons while finishing in the bottom five in Points-Per-Game and PPG Allowed, the organization has hit the reset button with new coaching across the board. DeMeco Ryans is their fourth head coach in five seasons taking over for Lovie Smith last season. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick is a first-time play-caller. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke ran the Miami Dolphins defense in 2017 and 2018. The organization is banking on drafting quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second pick in the draft and then trading a haul to Arizona for the third pick where they defensive end Willie Anderson, but it is hard to tell how much impact all these changes will have in Year One. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: General manager Chris Ballard is on the hot seat as the franchise turns to Philadelphia offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their new head coach after firing former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich midseason who they also hired after a two-year stint as the Philly offensive coordinator. Despite their 4-12-1 record, the Colts were only outgained by -22.4 net Yards-Per-Game — and they were 4-6 in games decided by one scoring possession after posting a 9-8 record in 2022-23. Fumbles on the field and in management (hiring Jeff Saturday as an interim head coach) were pervasive — Indy led the AFC with 37 fumbles which were 11 more than the AFC team with the second-most fumbles. After investing in Matt Ryan as a free agent quarterback failed, the organization invested in Anthony Richardson as their quarterback of the future by drafting him in the first round despite his only 13 career starts in college. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: After a big leap last year after the Urban Meyer disaster when they finished 3-14, is this a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory? All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seems as if the “plan” is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Can the defending Super Bowl champions maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January? With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs are replacing eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark (and now Chris Jones is holding out). On the other hand, perhaps this organization is successfully rebuilding on the fly by getting younger at wide receiver and on defense. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: After making the playoffs the previous year, was the Raiders’ 6-11 record a reflection of bad luck — or is it a harbinger of things to come in head coach Josh McDaniels’ second season? On the one hand, the Raiders had a 3-9 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -13.1 net YPG — their Pythagorean win total was 7.9. They blew four games after holding a double-digit lead — and six of their losses came after holding a lead by a touchdown or more. This begs the question if there is a deeper problem regarding culture under McDaniels. The former New England offensive coordinator had culture problems when he was briefly the head coach in Denver. McDaniels had communication issues with some Broncos players and he was too rigid with his management style. He may not have learned from his mistakes in his first head coaching stint. On the other hand, this is not a great roster in Las Vegas. The Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock regime was a disaster with a bevy of high draft picks already busts. Unfortunately for Raiders’ fans, new general manager Dave Ziegler may be making similar mistakes by over-drafting players from name college programs or the signing of free agent pass rusher Chandler Jones last summer. The 33-year-old had only 4.5 sacks last year. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Is Brandon Staley really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams? Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not completed a full season since 2018. After he likely suffered three concussions last season, the first order of business is whether he can stay healthy for the entire season. He is taking jiu-jitsu lessons to learn how to fall better — so take that Aaron Donald! Given the history of injuries at the quarterback position for San Francisco under head coach Kyle Shanahan, we have to wonder if the schemes that Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel has inherited simply put the QB more at risk since a play-action system requires tight ends to sell out for the run and not pass protect. There is concern about the league catching up to McDaniel’s unique schemes with this team in their first season. Miami lost six of their last seven games — Tuagovailoa completed only 52.6% of his passes over his final four games with five interceptions and four fumbles when facing press coverage. The defense transforms from Cover-1 schemes to new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio who is the architect of the modern Cover-2 zone schemes. Maybe this shift helps — but the learning curve for success under Fangio is not immediate. Lastly, I turn to McDaniel — is he a schematic “genius” who the league began catching up to, or is he a true leader of men?NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Just how much blame should Matt Patricia and Joe Judge be blamed for the underwhelming Patriots offense that ranked 26th in the NFL by generating only 314.6 total Yards-Per-Game? While head coach Bill Belichick did not assign job titles, Patricia seemed to serve as the offensive coordinator who called the plays and Judge was the quarterbacks coach. I’m no fan of either coach — I’m agnostic on Judge while having animus towards Patricia regarding how he handled the allegations against him regarding sexual misconduct. However, I found the criticisms of both of them as unqualified for their jobs as lazy, and misunderstanding the role they both have. Belichick was a wide receivers coach before moving to the defensive side of the ball — he thinks that coaches coach and that understanding football requires understanding both sides of the ball. And while the current zeitgeist glamorizes the offensive coaches who deploy laminated play-calling sheets the size of a Greek restaurant menu, that is not the only way to oversee an effective offense. Many coaches privilege the ability to understand and execute offensive plays as more important as the diversity of a play-calling sheet — and it is fair to say that Belichick falls into that category. But now with Patricia banished and Judge back to the catch-all assistant head coach designation this season after Belichick tapped Bill O’Brien to once again serve as his head coach, the onus now falls on quarterback Mac Jones in his third year in the NFL. The idea is that reuniting Jones with his offensive coordinator at Alabama will solve the momentary bump in his career trajectory. But what if Jones simply doesn’t have what it takes?NEW YORK JETS: Will the Jets be serious about making a deep run in the playoffs — or will they get sucked into the media circus now with Aaron Rodgers in town? Between the spotlight of Hard Knocks, Rodgers’ weekly appearances on the Pat McAfee podcast, and the new Green Packers wing in the locker room featuring Rodgers’ ex-teammate buddies, there are plenty of opportunities for distractions. I find the bigger question mark relates to new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. How much was he to blame for his disastrous stint as head coach of the Denver Broncos? And how much credit did he deserve for the offensive success in Green Bay when he was the OC for some of Rodgers’ best seasons? If Hackett is simply a “yes man” for Rodgers, then that could become yet another source of friction in the locker room. On the other hand, if Rodgers and Hackett are serious and in sync and a defense that held 11 opponents to 20 points or less continues to develop under head coach Robert Saleh, then the Jets will be in position to snap their 12-season streak missing the playoffs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Is this team being underrated by the failure to appreciate simply how important T.J. Watt is to this team? The Steelers had a 1-6 record in the seven games Watt missed in his opening week injury — but they posted an 8-2 record when he was healthy and on the field. Their improvement in the second half of the season also coincided with rookie Kenny Pickett developing at quarterback as he started the final 12 games of the season. In his final eight starts, Pickett threw only one interception.Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Three -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

Saturday, Sep 30, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Part Three includes many of the teams that made their season debuts in September. BAYLOR: Was winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021 a fluke? After taking a step back with a 6-7 record after losing their final four games last year after a 30-15 loss to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, this is a critical season in assessing the culture of this program in the fourth season under head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears finished with an 11-3 record in his first season before falling to 2-7 during the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign. They did outgain their Big 12 rivals by +24 YPG. Yet Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears. With 12 starters back including junior quarterback Blake Shapen, another down season would place Aranda’s tenure in jeopardy. BYU: Will the Cougars have the physicality on their roster to sustain a full season of Power-Five conference play? Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team begins their first season in the Big 12 with 15 starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-5. They closed out the year by winning four games in a row culminating in a 24-23 victory against SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only five of their games were against Power-Five conference opponents or Notre Dame last year — and they went 2-3 in those five contests. Depth is a big concern for the roster — and they only return two starters apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. CINCINNATI: Did former head coach Luke Fickell leave this program at just the right time? After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters are back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. Now the Bearcats make their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. CLEMSON: After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. But Klubnik was shaky in the Orange Bowl against a suspect Tennessee defense by throwing two interceptions and failing to execute on numerous occasions in the red zone. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. But the secret sauce may be gone and it’s not as simple an explanation as Uiagelelei let them down the last two years. COASTAL CAROLINA: After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, will this program experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty? The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Game and 101st in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. COLORADO: Can head coach Deion Sanders' massive transfer portal reset rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball? Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. DUKE: Is it too easy and misguided to disregard the Blue Devils simply because they thrived on a soft schedule last season? They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again. But all four of the Blue Devils' losses were by eight points or less. They have a future NFLer at quarterback in junior Riley Leonard who passed for 2967 yards last year and added 699 yards on the ground. He has his three starting wide receivers and his starting tight end back from last year. And while I do not expect this team to enjoy another +16 net turnover margin, forcing turnovers is a skill — Duke had 10 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries for head coach Mike Elko who has eight starters back on that side of the ball in his second season with the program.FLORIDA STATE: Are the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell? They led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. The defense returns six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — and I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. Senior quarterback Jordan Travis is an intriguing NFL prospect. He was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he had only five interceptions with only 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. Has this program turned just a corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention?FRESNO STATE: Can the Bulldogs come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons? Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mikey Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. GEORGIA SOUTHERN: Can head coach Clay Helton get his defense under control after they ranked 128th in the nation by giving up 487.7 Yards-Per-Game? The Eagles replace eight of their top-ten tacklers along with nine of the 12 players who logged in 300 or more snaps — but that might be addition by subtraction. Helton’s team was 4-4 in games decided by one-scoring possession despite going up at least 30 points in four of those contests. Despite ranking 18th in the nation by generating 465.9 YPG, they still got outgained by 83 YPG in the Sun Belt because of their porous defense. GEORGIA STATE: After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. Is this team trending in the wrong direction in the seventh-year under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points? One-third of the roster has turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is back after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions.ILLINOIS: How close can the Fighting Illini get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG? Second-year head coach Bret Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He loses four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It will be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. IOWA: Can the Hawkeyes develop an even mid-level offensive attack? They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG. The senior Ferentz turned to Michigan for help by bringing senior quarterback Cade McNamara and senior tight end Erick All as transfers to help jumpstart the offense. But there are reasons why both players were not first-stringers for the Wolverines last year. The Iowa defense should once again be thought with 10 of the 16 players who logged at least 200 snaps returning. They were second in the nation by allowing only 13.3 PPG and 270.8 YPG. But Ferentz’s style of play on offense helps the defense — so significant changes on offense could disrupt the formula on defense. KANSAS: How high is the ceiling for the Jayhawks after they snapped their 14-year bowl drought in a wild 55-53 loss to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl? Third-year head coach Lance Leipold had ten starters back on offense along with over 90% of their production from that group ranked 20th in the nation by scoring 35.6 PPG. Junior quarterback Jalon Daniels ranked second in the nation in Total QBR despite missing four games with a separated shoulder. But can they stop anyone after ranking 126th in the nation by surrendering 469.4 YPG with their last four opponents scoring 43 PPG against them? Leipold is relying on the transfer portal to fill a defensive line that does not return any of their four starters — but he seems to be winning in the transfer window wars and bringing in more talent into Lawrence than what he is losing. LSU: Are the Tigers a bit overvalued right now coming off a fortunate opening season under head coach Brian Kelly that concluded with their 63-7 blowout victory against Purdue in their bowl game that was severely undermanned due to the roster exodus after the Boilermakers' head coach left the program. Despite posting a 6-2 record in SEC play that was headlined by a signature victory against Alabama, LSU got outgained by -5.0 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. They benefited from +2 net close wins decided by one scoring possession — so they were close to being an 8-6 team which correlates with their net yardage numbers. The Tigers had a big play problem on both sides of the ball. While ranking sixth in overall Success Rate on offense, they fell to 101st in Marginal Explosiveness. On defense, LSU ranked 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed but fell to 50th in Opponent Marginal Explosiveness Allowed. Their defense returns only nine of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps — and they lost seven defensive backs who got playing time last season. Kelly tried to fortify the back end with transfers — and perhaps he succeeded in upgrading the talent — but depth remains a problem. MIDDLE TENNESSEE: Will the Blue Raiders be a better team this season but fail to replicate or improve on their 8-5 record? Head coach Rick Stockstill’s team pulled off five upsets and benefited from a +12 net turnover margin which made up for a -44 net Yards-Per-Game mark in Conference USA play. The defense has eight starters back along with 12 of the 15 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense has five starters back along with sophomore Nick Vattiato who was the Conference USA Freshman of the Year in 2021 while earning MVP in the Bahamas Bowl before only playing in two games last season with senior Chase Cunningham returning from injury to reclaim the starting job. They did win five of their last six games including a 25-23 win against San Diego State in Hawai’i Bowl. MISSOURI: Will this team continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz? The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz is relinquishing the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. NEVADA: Can second-year head coach Ken Wilson raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense? The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. NOTRE DAME: Can the Fighting Irish compete for the College Football Playoff by repeating the power rushing attack they successfully deployed last season —and if not, is adding Sam Hartman at quarterback enough to transform the passing attack against elite competition? The Irish lost their first three games in the first three games under head coach Marcus Freeman last season with them only scoring 23.7 PPG and generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Play in their first six games. But after switching to a power-rushing attack, the Fighting Irish scored 38.7 PPG and averaged 6.2 YPP — and they returned two great starting tackles to serve as the foundation for this approach. Hartman offers the hope of a more sophisticated passing attack after passing for more than 300 YPG in the last two seasons for Wake Forest. But is there a true number-one wide receiver option from a unit that ranked sixth-to-last in receptions of 40 or more yards last year? OHIO STATE: Head coach Ryan Day has reached the College Football Playoff in three of the first four years under his leadership — but is his zeal to mold a team prepared for those potential games making the Buckeyes vulnerable against their biggest obstacle to winning a Big Ten Championship? Michigan has beaten them by 15 and 22 points in the last two seasons by controlling both sides of the line of scrimmage. Previous head coach Urban Meyer has subtly suggested that the program has gotten softer regarding their physicality with all the speed on the roster — and Day is certainly aware of this criticism. After four years of Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud under center, Day has to find a new quarterback this season amidst this challenge. And attention must be paid to their defense that allowed 87 combined points and a whopping 8.9 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games against the Wolverines and then Georgia in the playoff semifinals. OREGON: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. OREGON STATE: Can the Beavers take the next step and challenge for a Pac-12 Championship? They won their final four games of the season including a 30-3 dominant win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl to complete a 10-3 campaign. But all three of their losses were in conference play where they finished a solid 6-3 — but they lost to both USC and Washington by a field goal and got thumped by Utah by a 42-16 score in Salt Lake City. Head coach Jonathan Smith has 13 starters back in his sixth year with the program — and he may have scored an upgrade at quarterback with D.J. Uigalelei transferring in from Clemson. The former five-star recruit had a 22-9 career record as a starter for the Tigers. PENN STATE: With two of the four College Football Playoff teams in their division in the Big Ten conference, can the Nittany Lions reach the elite level necessary to compete against Ohio State and Michigan? They have lost nine of their last 12 games against the traditional Big Two in the conference since 2017. Even worse, they are winless in their last ten games against top-ten opponents in the last six seasons under head coach James Franklin. The hope is that the team is ready to take this final step with the offense turning over to sophomore blue-chipper Drew Allar at quarterback after four years of the capable if unspectacular Sean Clifford under center. PURDUE: How will first-year head coach Ryan Walters mesh with his offensive coordinator Graham Harrell who will be installing an Air Raid offense he previously oversaw at West Virginia and USC? Walters previously served as the defensive coordinator at Missouri and then Illinois last year which were mostly defensive-oriented smash-mouth teams. Walters’ last season with Missouri was in the first season under Eliah Drinkwitz in 2020 when he installed a no-huddle attack — and that Mizzo team gave up 49.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Walters was not retained the next season which allowed Bret Bielema to snatch him up when he took the Illinois head coaching job in 2021. SAM HOUSTON STATE: How much can be gleaned from the Bearkats 2022 season since head coach K.C. Keeler redshirted many of his key players since the program was ineligible to win a title in their last season before making the transition from the FCS to FBS this year? Sam Houston State won the FCS National Championship in the season that ended in the spring of 2021. Sixteen starters are back from last year’s team that posted a 5-4 record against exclusively FCS opponents. Keeler did bring in several transfers including sophomore quarterback Grant Gunnell from North Texas who was once a blue-chip prospect for Arizona. TEMPLE: Can the Owls continue the progress they demonstrated in the second half of last season under first-year head coach Stan Drayton? After getting outgained by -105 net Yards-Per-Game in their first seven contests, they outgained their final five opponents by +29 YPG. But they still finished 3-9 last season after Drayton inherited a team gutted by transfers with the program turning to their sixth head coach in seven seasons after the disastrous Rod Carey era came to an end. Sixteen starters return from last year led by quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of the legendary NFL quarterback, but roster depth remains a significant challenge. TEXAS TECH: Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? One of the appeals of McGuire was his ability to recruit Texas talent after his 13 seasons of coaching at the high school level in the state. Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury.TULSA: Will the Golden Hurricane be even worse on defense this season after ranking 116th and 98th in the FBS last year by allowing 33.1 Points-Per-Game and 414.2 total Yards-Per-Game? First-year head coach Kevin Wilson did not even hire a defensive coordinator until after spring practice. The Ohio State offensive coordinator for the last six seasons and former Indiana head coach from 2011-2016 eventually tapped UT-Martin defensive coordinator Chris Polizzi as his new DC — but there is a lot of work to do with a unit that lost six of their top eight tacklers from last year’s unit. Nine starters are back, including five on defense, from the team that finished 5-7. WESTERN KENTUCKY: How high is the ceiling for this program if they start winning more of their close games? The Hilltoppers have enjoyed 9-5 campaigns for two straight seasons despite posting a 2-7 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They led Conference USA by outgaining their opponents by +136 net Yards-Per-Game but Red Zone issues have held them back. They ranked 84th in the FBS last season with a touchdown rate of 58.3% with their Red Zone trips. On defense, they ranked 67th in the nation by allowing touchdowns in 60% of their opponent’s trips into the Red Zone. Eleven starters are back including senior quarterback Austin Reed who chose to not transfer away after leading the FBS with 4746 passing yards. Best of luck -- Frank.

NFL 2023-24 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

Saturday, Sep 30, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team takes about an hour to 90 minutes of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).ATLANTA FALCONS: The Falcons were finally released from salary cap jail — and general manager Terry Fontenot spent almost $180 million on 17 new players to the roster. However, I am not sure all that money was “spending for spending’s sake” now that the financial shackles were off versus a serious fortification of the roster. The Jessie Bates III signing at safety as he enters his seventh season seems sound, but the remaining pickups fall into the Aging Veteran or Underachieving Second-Chancer categories. Particularly on defense, did all that money just re-arrange the chairs on a sinking Titanic ship that ranked 27th in the league by allowing 362.1 Yards-Per-Game — and those numbers may be modest when considering head coach Arthur Smith’s ball control offensive attack. Atlanta has endured five straight losing seasons after their 7-10 mark last year — and it’s possible that Smith’s coaching made relative chicken salad out of what may be a really bad roster. The defensive line, linebackers, pass protection on the offensive line, and the wide receiver room all appear lacking. The Falcons got outgained by -42.5 net Yards-Per-Game — but after -3 net close losses by one scoring possession, they were only outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They drafted running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick in the first round of the April NFL draft in an area not of need. Perhaps he is a generational talent that could not be passed up — but similar arguments were made about tight end Kyle Pitts who was drafted with the fourth pick in the first round in 2022 and has caught three touchdown passes in his albeit injury-shortened career (amongst 96 career receptions). Desmond Ridder gets the opportunity to lead the offense in his second year after going 2-2 as a starter in his rookie season. The former third-round pick from Cincinnati has questions regarding his arm strength and the ceiling of his overall talent. CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Panthers played pretty well under interim head coach Steve Wilks last season — is that a sign of things to come or simply a dead cat bounce from the ending of the Matt Rhule tenure? Carolina posted an 11-27 record in the two-plus seasons under Rhule — but they closed out the season with a 6-6 record under Wilks last year to finish the year with a 7-10 record. All five starters on the offensive line are back on an underrated unit. But the team lost important pieces on offense when they traded wide receiver D.J. Moore to Chicago in their acquisition of the first pick in the NFL draft which they used to select quarterback Bryce Young. They did not resign running back D’Onta Foreman despite all he does is overachieve when given the opportunity with the football. The Panthers did take a chance on Philadelphia running back Miles Sanders in free agency — but the future of the offense lies in Young and new head coach Frank Reich’s ability to steward the 5’10 QB in the league. CHICAGO BEARS: How much of Justin Fields’ slow development is on him — and how much of it is on the lack of support around him? His vision down the field and accuracy on his throw remain works in progress. He holds on to the ball too long — his 3.12 seconds-per-throw was the fourth-highest in the NFL. But the Bears might have had the least dynamic wide-receiving units in the league. And the offensive line was a sieve — 38 of the 58 sacks they gave up (fourth most in the NFL) came against just three or four rushers who were able to generate pressure 38.3% of the time (highest in the NFL). Patrick Mahomes would likely struggle with that set of receivers when defenses are content to play eight seven or eight defenders in pass coverage who are still applying pressure two times every five plays. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore was an essential piece in trading away the first pick in the NFL draft to Carolina — and general manager Ryan Poles drafted right tackle Darnell Wright with one of his first-round picks to address the offensive line. DALLAS COWBOYS: Head coach Mike McCarthy takes over the play-calling for the now-departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore — but does the offense have the talent to successfully run the ball more and transition to a more conventional West Coast offense? I simply don’t know if moving on from Moore will help or hurt this offense (I suspect help, but I have don’t a strong opinion — and we will have much more information to evaluate that question as this season moves forward). Perhaps getting the ball out quicker will help establish Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks as the reliable secondary options to wide receiver CeeDee Lamb that this offense has lacked. Can Tony Pollard handle lead running back responsibilities with the team not resigning Ezekiel Elliott — and who will inherit Elliott’s elite pass-blocking and short-yardage running skills? DETROIT LIONS: Is this a franchise that is treating their lame-duck upset victory at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers in the final regular season game of the season as an indication that they are just a player or two away from a deep playoff run? While the league is moving away from investing heavily in running backs and linebackers, the Lions signed David Montgomery to a three-year $18 million deal in the offseason and then drafted a running back with the 12th pick in the first round of the NFL draft. They then drafted a linebacker at the 18th pick in the first round despite other past first-rounders at that position not getting the option taken on the fifth year of their rookie contract. This is a team that outgained in yardage last season after Carolina put up 570 total yards against them in Week 15 in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. With all the hype around a franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991, what happens if they get off to another slow start?GREEN BAY PACKERS: Will the Packers respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request? The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Is general manager Mickey Loomis simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or is he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints are seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. NEW YORK GIANTS: I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 mark that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Could the team add speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: How good was the Eagles' defense actually last season? They ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason.SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Can Geno Smith maintain his level of play from last season? He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage last year while winning the Comeback Player Of the Year Award. Arm talent was never the issue for the former West Virginia quarterback — he was the 39th pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He is more mature now — and he has clearly learned from working with Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. Perhaps there would be more success stories like Smith’s if quarterbacks received more opportunities in the second half of their career. On the other hand, Smith did regress after his great start in his first five games last season. All 11 of his interceptions took place in his final 11 games — and the Seahawks lost six of their last nine games. Perhaps his decline in play was due to the injury issues on their offensive line. Smith did lead the NFL in completion percentage above expectation which suggests he was not simply lucky to be seeing good results. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Is this team being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement? The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league. The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image.WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: How good can Sam Howell be for this team? While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league. Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Two -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

Viktor Hovland's Ascendance Rewards Our Faith (and Our Pocketbooks)

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

After Viktor Hovland rewarded my faith in him by winning the PGA BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs three weeks ago, I was not going to jump off the bandwagon the next week at the Tour Championship. Hovland paid out tickets at +1600 odds at most spots for winning the BMW Championship. He was my Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds with him listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings to win the week (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we wanted the prop for best raw score this week). At the BMW Championship, Hovland followed up his Round Three of 65 with a Round Four of 61 with that nine-under score bolstered by his shooting a sensational 28 on the back nine — and under pressure. I had been bullish on Hovland since he settled for second place at the PGA Championship. Hovland had been remarkably consistent this season with 17 top-25 finishes in his last 22 events — and he has eight top-25s in his last nine tournaments. Hovland settled for a tie for 13th place at the British Open last month. He looked poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with simply coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 105th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). He was above average Around-the-Green — statistically — this summer which accounts for his moving up the ranking. He was clearly playing with more confidence with his chipping as evidenced by a couple of clutch shots on Sunday last week. Hovland was already one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranked sixth on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The last seven winners at East Lake had finished in the top-seven for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Overall, Hovland ranked third in the field by gaining +2.1 shots per round versus the field — and he was arguably the hottest golfer in the field going into the Tour Championship at the East Lake Country Club in Atlanta. It was his fourth trip to East Lake where he finished in fourth place two years ago. He started two strokes behind Scottie Scheffler in the adjusted scoring but quickly overcame that deficit after Round One. After a second round of 64 which was six-under par, Hovland seized a lead that he would never relent. He won the Tour Championship with an adjusted score of 27-under par — but winning the raw score for the week remained very much in doubt on Sunday. Xander Schauffele joined him in the final group in Round Four — and he shot 8-under for the round which was one better than Hovland. Schauffele settled for second place in the adjusted score at 22-under par. Hovland and Schauffele ended up tied for the week with a score of 261 which was 19-under par. But fortunately for us, Schauffele was our Best Bet for the week at +900 (DraftKings)— so we were able to cash that ticket along with our Viktor Hovland ticket (our Top Overlay Bet once again) at +1000 (DraftKings) to share those two dead heat winners at a +950 net payout. Cashing at +1600 odds and then the net +950 odds is a great way to end our golf season. We had seven 1st Place winners in 2023 after enduring three near-miss second-place finishes since cashing our Brooks Koepka tickets at 20-1 with his win at the PGA Championship. Hollywood Sports has 12 first-place winners in our last 43 PGA Tour Reports with regulars now enjoying over 63 weeks of free rolls where they can invest in the Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet, and Long Shot for 2024 and beyond!FYI: I do not handicap the fall PGA Tour events. I need the time for football and the pros tend to treat those events a little differently. My next Golf Report will be for the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first week of 2024, so on to January (in golf) ...Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part One: 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

Monday, Jul 31, 2023

British Open Preview

Wednesday, Jul 19, 2023

The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This will be the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy won his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour. Rory McIlroy opened as the betting favorite at +650 odds at DraftKings. He won the Scottish Open last week and remains determined to win his first major championship in nine years since winning the 2014 British Open at Royal Liverpool in 2014. McIlroy's price has since dropped to +800 as of Wednesday evening. Scottie Scheffler opened at +700 odds at DraftKings as the second favorite in the futures market for this tournament, but he has since passed to become the number one bettors' favorite versus McIlroy with his +700 price holding steady. Scheffler has not won a major championship this season but he has not finished below 12th place in 17 straight tournaments. Jon Rahm is the third favorite at +1300 odds at DraftKings. He has four victories in 2013 but has not lifted a first-place trophy since winning the Masters in April. In his last event, he missed the cut at the Travelers Championship, which was the first time he did not make the weekend since 2021. Defending champion Cameron Smith opened at +1800 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. He has since dropped to +2000. After a fourth-place finish at the US Open, Smith comes into this British Open off a victory in his last tournament on the LIV Tour. We go for our sixth first place on the PGA Tour in 2023 and third major championship this season after winning with Rahm at the Masters before Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship. Best of luck -- Frank.

Riding the Miami Heat (even in defeat) to Win Our 2022-23 NBA Game of the Year!

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Miami Heat were limping down the stretch in the NBA postseason with losses in six of their last eight games heading into Game Five of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. In the face of a crucial situation at home where they had the opportunity to even the series at 2-2, they instead lost by a 108-95 score as a 3-point underdog to give the Nuggets to return home to win the championship with a commanding 3-1 series lead. But we had been riding the Heat for much of the playoff season — and they offered tremendous value as a big underdog getting eight or so points. After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things were certainly dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they seemed like they would be a tough out. I had comfortably concluded that the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat were off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark had improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena in Game Two of the NBA Finals, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1 that came into play for that fifth game. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. The Heat had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They had perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat had also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. Miami had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent.The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver had been great all season — but one of the flaws of that group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it was not going to help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets had covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games. Miami did get off to a fast start in Game Five as they went into halftime with a 51-44 lead. And while the Nuggets only scored 40 points in the second half, the lack of reliable scoring options for the Heat reared its ugly head as they were only able to score 43 points in the second half. Denver won the game by a 94-89 score to claim their first NBA championship. But they did not cover the eight or so points they were laying — and we won our NBA Game of the Year on Miami plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Ignoring Zig-Zag and Puck Luck: Backing the Vegas Golden Knights in their Stanley Cup Clinching 9-3 Victory

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Vegas Golden Knights took a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with a 3-2 victory on the road against the Panthers on June 10th. With the series returning to the Las Vegas strip three days late for Game Six, many bettors were tempted to zig-zag by backing Florida. It is a simple and easy formula that sometimes has success, especially in playoff series between good teams who can win on the road. Other bettors continued to be amazed at the “puck luck” that the Golden Knights enjoyed. After the first two games of the series, Vegas was scoring on 12.5% of their shot attempts — a number far above the 8.4% percentage on average for previous Stanley Cup winners at five-on-five even strength. Their goaltenders had a save percentage of .944 in the postseason which was also outperforming previous Stanley Cup winners that had averaged a .930 save percentage. A popular hockey metric is labeled PDO (it’s not an acronym, it comes from the online handle of the person who originally defended the value of this metric in an online forum) — it is a simple addition of save percentage and goal-scoring percentage per shot. A PDO of 100 is the average. A simplistic view of PDO would presume that teams with PDOs above 100 were experiencing good luck while teams with PDOs below 100 were saddled with bad luck. But we should expect Wayne Gretzky and Connor McDavid to have higher goal-scoring percentages than the rest of the league. Vezina Trophy-winning goaltenders are going to have higher save percentages. But it is interesting to compare Stanley Cup contenders with past Stanley Cup champions. The 2011 Boston Bruins had registered the highest PDO in NHL history with a 104.8 in that postseason. Vegas was crushing that mark with a 106.9 PDO.If the Golden Knights were in the middle of a best-of-31 series with the Panthers, then perhaps fading them based on that historically high PDO would make sense. But in a next-game situation, expecting the proverbial Regression Gods to suddenly show up is likely an act guilty of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Just because the roulette wheel landed red ten times in a row, betting on black is not suddenly a better investment. From what I observed in the waning moments of Game Four, I saw Game Five as a great opportunity to invest heavily on Vegas to win that game and clinch the Stanley Cup championship despite their puck luck and the temptation of the zig-zag model. From the often maligned “eye test”, I saw a Florida team that seemed already beaten. The Panthers had gotten their first power play opportunity with 17 seconds left in game after Alex Pietrangelo drew a delay of game penalty by knocking the puck into the stands. With a six-on-four advantage with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky pulled Florida could not beat Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill in a furious fury as time expired. Frustrated, Brandon Montour of the Panthers skated a few feet forward to cheat shot Vegas’ Brayden McNabb with his back turned. His actions triggered a post-game melee that even Hill got involved with for a few moments before getting out of there. That event provided a synopsis of this series: Florida, the bully, now getting bullied (and out-maneuvered) by a season Golden Knights team. The Panthers' physical style had great success against Toronto and Carolina en route to their Eastern Conference Finals triumph. But this mentality along with the commitment to forechecking is standard operating procedure to play against for this Golden Knights team that has learned to engage and thrive with these tactics since their inaugural season in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings became the standard bearer for this approach a decade ago— and the San Jose Sharks adopted it. The Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer later became the coach for the Knights — and it was the DeBoer’s latest team the Dallas Stars that Vegas had to beat in the Western Conference Finals. The underlying metrics supported the Golden Knights’ dominance in this series. They registered 3.7 expected goals (xG) in Game Four while holding Florida to 2.49 xG. In their 3-2 overtime loss on the road in Game Three, they won the xG battle by a 3.71-2.9 margin. The only game that the Golden Knights lost the xG numbers was in Game Two by a narrow 2.84-2.65 margin. The scoreboard has Vegas taking that game by a 7-2 score (showing the limitations of xG as not the end-all, be-all). For the series, the Golden Knights are dominating Florida by a 14.85-10.82 xG margin. And now Matthew Tkachuk is hurt with a left shoulder that seems to be a by-product of the hit he took in Game Three. Despite trailing in the third period, he stayed on the bench for 10:41 straight minutes before going on the ice late in that game. He did not practice the day before and was listed as questionable to play. Even if he did play, he would not be 100%. His three overtime-winning goals had been critical for the Panthers to win all seven of their overtime games in these playoffs. Vegas was not the only team that had been the beneficiary of “puck luck.” Florida’s success in winning close games obscured the fact that they had actually been outscored this postseason. Was this a team that simply rode the hot goaltending of Bobrovsky? The Panthers will have resolve in Game Five with the confidence that they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. But that was a divisional rivalry against a Bruins team playing with tons of pressure after their historic regular season. Florida did win last year’s President’s Trophy — but this is still a team that lacks deep playoff experience before now. This Golden Knights team had been building to this moment since their expansion season when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Washington. They were underrated by the analytics and the oddsmakers entering the postseason given all the injuries they sustained during the regular season — most notably with Mark Stone missing most of the season. Before Jack Eichel arrived, he was the team’s best player. Now he anchors a third line away from the Eichel line that is thriving with Jonathan Marchessault. Vegas may have the best fourth line in the NHL. And the other forward line involves William Karlsson, the best offensive player on the 2016-17 squad that reached the Cup Finals — and who is perhaps the team’s best defensive forward (or second to Stone). Back at home, head coach Bruce Cassidy had the advantage of the last-line choice — so he could ensure Karlsson is always playing against Tkachuk who only scored once in the first two games in this series in Las Vegas. It was Karlsson that was critical for the Knights’ slowing down Connor McDavid in the Western Conference Semifinals against Edmonton. Vegas outscored the Panthers by a whopping 12 to 4 margin in the first two games at home in this series. Hill continued to exceed expectations — but the unsung heroes are his supporting cast willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots. In Game Four, Vegas blocked 30 shots to Florida’s 15 blocks. And Cassidy deserves tons of credit for implementing a defensive scheme that operates as a passive 1-4 zone approach from the New Jersey Devils of last decade. It had allowed the Knights to continually have success despite rotating goaltenders all season.These were the reasons why I endorsed the Golden Knights in Game Five as my NHL Game of the Year — and they responded with an overwhelming 9-3 victory to win the game and lift Lord Stanley’s Cup in front of their home fans. Tkachuk was not able to play and it was later revealed that he had suffered a broken sternum in the third game of the series. Vegas scored twice in the first period — and after Florida scored first in the second period, the Golden Knights responded with four unanswered goals in the second period to take a commanding 6-1 lead to cruise to the victory in the final 20 minutes. Models like the zig-zag theory can be helpful — especially if they are backed with strong empirical evidence from similar situations. Using analytics to identify overvalued and undervalued teams is important. But these are just two of the tools in the successful handicapper’s toolbox. The best handicapping occurs when one assesses a variety of arguments — and makes good decisions regarding what evidence to privilege. While there were many good reasons to back the Golden Knights in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals, the best evidence might have come from the eye test in the final moments of Game Four. Best of luck — Frank.

Exposing Some Myths Regarding Power Ratings and NBA Game 7 Home Teams

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The Boston Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired in Game Six to pull out a 104-103 win on the road in Miami. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I continue to remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. With seemingly all the momentum, when I assessed the Game Seven situation with a clear head, I initially considered that perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams had a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams gets muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams were only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am reluctant to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size was too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it was fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And perhaps most importantly on that issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since Boston was the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that had not then played on the road. Ultimately, I endorsed and invested in the Heat plus the points because I lacked the confidence that the Celtics could close a game out. Those 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back was the latest example of that phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? The Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I was comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Giving a Miami team that had already pulled off eight upset victories in this postseason eight or so points as the underdog seemed off. Fundamentally, I considered the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed. These systems were largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat ranked second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark was much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also made 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that was still higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. Regarding power rankings, what data should be used — and what data should be de-emphasized? The Miami Heat present a fascinating example of this problem for the Quants since they have been such a better 3-point shooting team since their opening-round series with Milwaukee. But if the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument to be had that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. If the methodology is unwilling to stop at the postseason and needs to include the regular season data, then why not the data from last season or all the data since 2020? Where does one draw the line? Is there a shred of evidence to support your subjective decision to draw the line where you did? When people (like me) argue that quantitative methodologies that claim to be removed from subjective bias are bullshit, this is yet another example of this phenomenon. So, I thought there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I had more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. We were rewarded with a 103-84 victory by the Heat who pulled off their ninth upset win in the postseason to advance to the NBA Finals. Winning with Miami and the Under in that game has us going into the NBA Finals this season on an 18-6 (75%) NBA run. I don’t want to label this a “hot streak” since Hollywood Sports is now 78-36 (68%) in our last 114 NBA games in the playoffs. Isn’t this the expectation? It should be.Best of luck — Frank.

Anatomy of a 20-1 Winner/Handicapping Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The best thing to ever happen to lazy sports reporters who know little about the game of golf outside of their next tee time was the establishment of the LIV Tour. Like political journalists who do not understand health care policy or what the debt ceiling is, the opportunity to bypass policy discussion to instead speculate on the potential political fallout from politicians taking political stances allows these journalists to sound smart without them saying anything of substance. When politics becomes theater, the theater critic is elevated by critiquing the work of the “artists.” Similarly, sports journalists can use their five minutes of air time or their 500 words of written media to speculate on all the theater behind the PGA Tour players once again interacting directly with golfers who “defected” to the LIV Tour. “Will Rory say anything to Patrick?” gets elevated to content with the sports journalists moving to the safe space of theater criticism that allows them to successfully avoid having to (incorrectly) pick the winner. If only there was a LIV Tour for the NFL (or NBA, or MLB …). I am sorry if I am bursting the bubble for anyone who still clutches to the belief that there is some rivalry between the professionals on the PGA Tour and the LIV Tour. There is not. These are millionaires who play golf for a living and who spend much of their time on the course complaining to each other it is unfair that their tournament winners are taxed. The players that did not leave for the LIV Tour still thank their lucky stars every night for its development since it compelled the PGA Tour to change some of its policies including the establishment of elevated events with bigger payouts. The PGA pros are playing more golf this year — and they are making lots more money that “suddenly” appeared in response that the LIV Tour threat had on the suits who run the PGA Tour. This is a long detour to discuss the topic at hand: Brooks Koepka and his PGA Championship earlier this month. Our Best Bet to win the PGA Championship was on Brooks Koepka, who was listed at DraftKings at +2000. With Scottie Scheffler the favorite at +700 and Jon Rahm just behind him at +750, those pros had underlay values at such short prices. We were on Rahm for the Masters — and I faded all the LIV golfers (like Koepka) concerned about the lack of rigorous competition (with the guaranteed money) and the 54-hole tournaments. Koepka kept me nervous all weekend leading the tournament after each round before succumbing to the brutal Sunday schedule where he played about a third of the tournament given rain delays and the surge by Rahm. He was given no favors having to play more than 27 holes on that Sunday. But it was clear that he is as healthy as he has been in years. And the lack of being tested from week to week on the LIV Tour is not a concern for me when it comes to Koepka since he usually treated the non-majors on the PGA Tour as his practice rounds. Koepka had already won four major championships including two PGA Championships. He had five top-fives at PGA Championship events and six top-13s in his eight competitions overall. He seemed to be a great fit for this course as well. His PGA Championship at Beth Page was another brutal Par 70 course — and his 2019 US Open victory at Shinnecock was another long Par 70 course. Koepka ranks second in the field in scoring at difficult Par 70 courses consisting of 7200 or more yards. We were rewarded with Koepka winning the PGA Championship at the Oak Hills Country Club by two strokes. That was our tenth win in the last 28 Golf Reports going back to last summer and our fifth first-place winner in 2023. Going into June, regulars now have over 61 weeks of free rolls from previous PGA Tour winnings since last summer -- meaning they could invest their X into our Best Bet, Top Overlay, and Long Shot each week for the next 61 events and still keep a profit. That'll continue to work. Best of luck — Frank.

Contrarianism as Fool's Gold: UConn and Getting Out of the Way of a Freight Train

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

At first glance, it looked perhaps too easy to side with the Connecticut Huskies against the San Diego State Aztecs in the college basketball National Championship Game. UConn had been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Miami Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Most of the college basketball experts were siding with the Huskies to win and cover the 7.5 points they were laying as the favorite. The betting public was more mixed as they were giving more credit to an Aztecs team that was one of the best defensive teams in the nation to keep things close. I like fading the cadre of college basketball experts when their group think form a clear consensus on a side. But this was not a situation to get too cute. Sometimes the contrarian play is the wrong side — and that became evident in UConn’s 76-59 victory to easily win and cover the point spread. Thankfully, I thought better of my contrarian instincts in this instance. Here are a few of the reasons why. Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies in the Final Four — and San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address that conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they were steamrolling teams again. The Huskies had covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley felt his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacked familiarity with the Huskies' approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game was probably at least 68 points — they had reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch. But it was the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they were playing an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they had scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They were only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc seemed unlikely. The Aztecs took many of their shots from the midrange — and now they were playing a UConn team that ranked sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Aztecs were the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They had endured a difficult schedule — but they had been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all lived (and died) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn was a good 3-point shooting team, they probably had the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga was shooting 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson was making 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban was making 59.8% of his 2-pointers. The Aztecs had dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they had used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also ranked 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They held their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.There was one final nugget that convinced me to strongly endorse and invest heavily in the Huskies. UConn was the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group. That 2018 Villanova team was of particular significance to me since I had taken the contrarian route in backing Michigan in that game. I learned a lesson from that game. Avoid standing in front of freight trains if what you are looking at is, in fact, a freight train. Sometimes contrarianism is Fool’s Gold. And sometimes the college basketball expert class gets one right when they form a near-consensus. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. More importantly, we won our College Basketball Game of the Year by seeing the forest through the trees regarding the Connecticut Huskies.Best of luck — Frank.

Betting Numbers (not sides) -- and the Value of Passing

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

When the Milwaukee Bucks got upset for the second-straight time to the Miami Heat in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, it sure seemed at first glance like they would offer a nice opportunity for bettors in Game Five back at home. The problem with this logic is that if a vast majority of bettors also feel this way, then the resulting point spread number may not offer value relative to the situation. Bettors make a mistake if they become fixated exclusively on the circumstances -- without taking into account the corresponding point spread number. In this instance, the books placed Milwaukee as a favorite back at home as an 11.5-point favorite. So, the real question was: after the Heat pulled off two straight upset wins and now were traveling to play a Bucks team motivated to avoid playoff elimination after being upset in two straight games enough to expect them to win by 12 or more points? Empirical situational angles can be helpful to ascertain how teams in similar situations have responded relative to the point spread. However, when the point spread gets so high, the relevant sample size gets diluted. How many NBA teams coming off two straight upset losses and were now staving off elimination were then laying double-digits? One could go back 50 years to extract more numbers for that sample size, but does data prior to the establishment of the 3-point line really add insight to this situation? Sometimes the large point spread is indicative of just how resounding the favored team will respond. But sometimes it simply reveals how committed the betting public is to a narrative. The Bucks had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as a double-digit favorite — but the public was still zombie-betting Milwaukee despite Giannis Antetokounmpo not being 100%. The Bucks closed as a 13-point favorite in many locations. At a certain point, one simply has to pass. Fortunately, I concluded with a "No, thank you" on this proposition. I was not going to consider playing the Heat under those circumstances. But I have seen better results in my handicapping when accepting that sometimes the best way to utilize situations that I "like" is to use it simply say "no" to the other side. Passing is fine. Avoiding losers is good! For me, that Milwaukee had most recently failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss was concerning. I was troubled that they had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home when laying 6.5 to 12 points. They had not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The warning signs were there. Miami was also demonstrating that it is possible for "Heat Culture" to simply flip the switch in the postseason. I was so dismayed by their effort in their opening Play-In Tournament against Atlanta two weeks ago -- and that included Jimmy Butler. Things have changed. The Heat not only pulled a third straight upset in the playoffs by beating the Bucks in Milwaukee to end that series in five games, but they pulled off that trick again with a fourth straight upset victory against New York in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Sometimes the best option on the table is to pass. The number has to reflect the value of the prospective situation. Best of luck — Frank.

Alabama Lived by the 3 -- and Then It (Predictably) Died by the 3

Friday, Mar 31, 2023

The Alabama Crimson Tide would probably beat every team in the country if they were making their 3s. They went into the Sweet Sixteen ranked 8th in the nation by taking 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc. If they get hot, then everyone one of their opponents would be in deep trouble.But the thing about head coach Nate Oaks' team, one could say that about another 50 or 100 teams in the country. With "The Analytics" gaining more influence with their ingenious discovery that three points are more than two points, many teams bank their strategy on making 3s. We certainly caught the wrong end of that stick earlier this month fading Arizona State in the play-in game and then Northwestern in the first round of the Big Dance. Being on the wrong end of a red-hot shooting night is simply part of the deal when investing daily in college and NBA basketball. The Crimson Tide were a great team because their defense is so good that it offers them a great Plan B if they are only making an average number of their 3-pointers. But Alabama was not likely to cover big-point spreads against good teams if they are not nailing a high percentage of the 3s they take. They went into their Sweet Sixteen game against San Diego State as a 6.5-point favorite. They were only making 34.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 272nd in the nation, going into that game — and their proficiency from behind the arc dropped to 33.2% when playing away from home. In their last ten games away from home, they were only making 33.0% of their shots from behind the arc -- and that meant they were actually a little below base-level efficiency in using “math” to their advantage by lauding almost half of their shots from distance. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game. The reasoning above was one of the reasons we endorsed San Diego State as our Sweet Sixteen Underdog of the Year. The Aztecs played with a style that could give the Tide fits. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting Alabama's scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this number one seed. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 288th in the nation, those shots are only falling at a 28.7% rate which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only did San Diego State hold their opponents to 25.5% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama averages 10 made 3s per game from their 30 shots on average from distance. But the Aztecs had covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 346th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs crash the glass and outrebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds Per-Game — and the Crimson Tide had failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. Granted, San Diego State does not use “math” to their advantage on offense since they like to take midrange jumpers — but Alabama’s focus on taking away from shots from 3-point land plays into the Aztecs' hands in this matchup. The Crimson Tide were due for a visit from the Regression Gods in this regard as the 32% their opponents are shooting from midrange deviates significantly from the expected 38% field goal percentage based on national averages from where those shots are being taken. Alabama also ranked 290th in the nation in post-up defense — and they foul too much, ranking 222nd in the nation in defensive foul rate going into that game. San Diego State rewarded our faith by upsetting the Crimson Tide by a 71-64 score. Their perimeter defense frustrated Alabama as the Tide missed 24 of their 27 shots from behind the arc for an 11% shooting percentage from 3-point land. The Aztecs only made 20 of their 52 shots from inside the arc -- yet the advanced analytics do confirm that a 38.4% shooting percentage from 2-point shots does generate more points than making 11% of one's 27 shots from 3-point land (a 40 to 9 margin for those wishing for the math to be spelled out). In the end, Alabama lived by the 3 to earn the top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but this reliance did not offer them a good enough Plan B on the night they faced a good defensive team that was dedicated to thwarting 3-point shooting. The Variance Gods are fickle, indeed, and sometimes that is the most reliable intangible. Best of luck -- Frank.

The Surging Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, Mar 31, 2023

The Philadelphia 76ers may be flying under the radar in the Eastern Conference playoff race when compared to the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics. But the Sixers may prove difficult for either team to beat when they potentially play in the second round of the playoffs and/or the Eastern Conference Finals.With their 117-110 victory at home against Toronto to end the month on March 31st, Philly begins April with a 51-26 record, good for third place in the conference. As a 4-point favorite against the Raptors, the 76ers raced out to a 77-57 halftime lead after outscoring Toronto by a 46-27 margin in the second quarter. Joel Embiid continued his case as the Most Valuable Player in the league by scoring 25 points and pulling down 12 rebounds. In 14 games this month, Embiid is scoring 33.8 points-per-game on 58.9% shooting from the field. He is pulling down 9.3 rebounds-per-game. Philadelphia began the week by extending a mini-losing streak to three games in a 116-111 loss at Denver as a 7-point underdog at Denver on Monday. After finishing that four-game road trip out west, the Sixers returned home determined to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their previous five games. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. They responded to that three-game losing streak with a 116-108 victory at home against Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite on ESPN's Wednesday broadcast. They held the Mavericks to 46.8% shooting from the field in the win. Philly had seen a dip in their 3-point shooting going into that game. They were making only 36.6% of their 3-pointers in their previous ten games -- as opposed to their 38.6% shooting mark from behind the arc overall. Hosting the porous Mavericks defense did the trick as the Sixers made 17 of their 36 shots from behind the arc for a red-hot 47.2% clip from 3-point range. They followed that up on Friday night by nailing 12 of their 31 shots from 3-point range for a 38.7% clip. The Sixers have been defending the perimeter better as of late. They returned home on Wednesday ranking second in the NBA by holding their opponents to hit just 32.1% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games. In their last ten games, Philly ranked fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before playing Dallas. The Mavericks shoot a higher percentage of 3s than any team in the league and made 18 of their 46 shots from behind the arc on Wednesday. But Philly neutralized that 39.1% shooting by trading one less made 3-pointer by seizing +11 net points against Dallas at the charity stripe. They then held the Raptors to 8 of 26 shooting from behind the arc for a 30.8% shooting clip to end the month on Friday. After a 1-4 start to the season, the 76ers have posted a 50-22 record which ties the Celtics winning percentage for the season. Philadelphia is lurking as the playoffs get set to start in a couple of weeks. Bettors should take notice.Best of luck -- Frank.

If the NFL Has Pivoted to Offense, Why Was Scoring Down in '22-23?

Monday, Feb 27, 2023

It is considered conventional wisdom in many circles that the National Football desires and has been successful in making changes to the game to generate higher-scoring games. Perhaps the higher-ups of the NFL want higher scores, but that does not mean they are getting higher scores. "The league is pivoting to offense" mantra continues despite the average points-per-game mark dropping to 21.9 Points-Per-Game for the '22-23 NFL season. Last year was the second-straight season that scoring is down from its historic 24.8 Points-Per-Game high in 2020 (the year without fans in the stands because of the COVID outbreak, interestingly).The 21.9 Points-Per-Game average in 2022-23 was the lowest NFL scoring average since 2017 -- and the second-lowest since 2009. Perhaps the drop in scoring was due to more rushing attempts. The more teams run the football, the more time that burns off the play clock. Since midway through last season, the Philadelphia Eagles demonstrated that teams could be highly successful on offense with an attack that leaned heavily on the ground game. Other teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Washington Commanders amped up their rushing attacks. The Baltimore Ravens have been a run-first team with quarterback Lamar Jackson for years. Adherents of the notion that trends in the NFL are cyclical identify the strategic advantage teams seize with run-heavy offensive systems in an environment where more and more teams are deploying 4-2-5 defensive schemes with two linebackers and five defensive backs as their base defense to thwart pass-heavy offenses that often use three or more wide receivers. Rushing attempts were up to 27.3 runs per game last year which was the highest since 2011. The low was in 2019 when teams averaged 25.9 runs per game. But it is difficult to conclude that scoring is down by almost a field per game from 2020 simply because teams are trading off one or two passes per game for a rushing attempt. The passing game was down to 33.3 attempts per game in '22-23. That was the lowest since 2009. The league average for pass attempts peaked in '15-16 and '16-17 with 35.7 passes per game.Average offensive plays are down by roughly one to two per game. But does that really explain a 1.1 Points-Per-Game drop from last year -- and 2.0 Points-Per-Game from the 20-21 season? Something else is going on -- and the numbers contradict the lazy “league is moving to offense" trope.I do not know what the answer is. However, I do know that claims that the league is “making rule changes to the help offenses” are not precise. The recent changes in the NFL to protect quarterbacks and wide receivers in the name of player safety would seem to make it easier for teams to execute in the passing game. But does more passing necessarily lead to more scoring? More passing plays trade off with rushing plays. Or perhaps what NFL teams have realized is that their efficiency on offense — and their effectiveness overall when taking into account the benefits of running the ball to keep the clock moving and afford more time for their defense to rest — requires running the ball more often?With the Eagles reaching — and almost winning — the Super Bowl, these trends to running the ball are likely to continue into next season, despite what you may continue to hear from those touting the “scoring is up” false assumption. Best of luck — Frank.

Anatomy of a 35-1 Winner: Handicapping Chris Kirk at the PGA Honda Classic

Monday, Feb 27, 2023

Chris Kirk went into Sunday of the PGA Honda Classic with a two-stroke lead — but after bogeying a Par 4 at the 13th green, he fell behind rookie Eric Cole who was simultaneously registering a birdie at the 14th hole. Trailing by one stroke, Kirk then returned the favor to Cole by gaining two strokes by getting a birdie on the 16th hole while Cole was bogeying the 17th hole. After a nice drive on the 18th hole with a one-stroke lead on that Par 5, Kirk then began the draw on his second shot approach shot far too right with his ball landing about two inches shy of safe grass and bouncing back into the ocean to incur a penalty stroke. Cole looked to have the tournament in hand — but his approach shot was too hot and he found himself in the back bunker. Cole settled for par — and Kirk was able to salvage a bogey to force a playoff. After being forced to lay up after an errant tee shot that landed behind a tree, Kirk then pulled off a magnificent third shot putting him about six inches from the hole. Cole missed his long birdie putt which allowed Kirk to claim the championship with his easy tap-in. And Kirk rewarded Hollywood Sports’ PGA Tour regulars with the win at 35-1 odds. That was our second PGA Tour win in the last five weeks after cashing with Max Homa’s victory at the Farmers Insurance Open at 22-1 odds last month. We now have seven 1st place winners in our last 19 PGA Tour events. Now those are not 19 consecutive weeks on the PGA Tour. I do take the fall from handicapping golf after the PGA Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta. It takes me three or so hours to research and handicap each PGA Tour event — and that is time I desperately need for football in the fall. Besides, most of the professional golfers take the fall schedule with a grain of salt without any of the majors on the schedule — so it is a good fit to forego this event during the height of the football season. There are only so many hours in the day. When the PGA Tour picks up again in early January, I begin handicapping golf again which is a nice fit with football winding down to just the NFL playoffs. It was very nice to get our second winner under our belts for 2023 in the eighth tournament of the new year — and it continues a good run we were on to close out the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season. Kirk was too good to pass up on with the PGA Tour moving to Florida. While he opened at 25-1 odds at DraftKings on Monday after finishing in 7th place at this tournament last year, the market pushed his odds up to 35-1 by Wednesday to my delight. The Honda Classic at the PGA National Resort The Champion Course in Palm Springs is a Par 70 consisting of 7125 yards. The professionals were challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 67 bunkers. Tight fairways, three-inch Bermuda grass rough, and the propensity for high winds added to the intrigue this week. Only two Par 5s are on the course and the Par 3s are notoriously difficult. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The average score in 2022 at this event was 71.341.I liked that Kirk would have a chip on his shoulder after being in second place after Rounds One, Two, and Three before taking a step back in the final round on Sunday and settling for that 7th place. He finished tied for 21st place here in 2021 — so he likes this course. Said Kirk about his preference for courses that feature Bermuda grass greens: "If I know the greens are real quick and I can just kind of let it go, that seems to be when I hit my best putts and I seem to be pretty decent at reading Bermuda greens, so it's a combination of a number of things, but yeah, it's just what I'm most comfortable on." Kirk ranked 5th in the field this week in Adjusted Score when playing on courses with Bermuda greens over the last two years — and he ranks 15th in the field in over-performance on courses with Bermuda greens versus his baseline results over the last two years. Kirk opened 2023 with a 3rd place finish at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i before following that up with a tie for 3rd place at The American Express — but he had some extra to prove last week after missing the cut in his most recent event at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks prior. Kirk is one of the better ball-strikers on the tour. He ranked 20th on the tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and four of the last five winners of this tournament also led the field in that metric. Kirk also ranked fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained on Par 4 holes which will be important this week given the two fewer Par 5s. I always recommend three golfers per golf Betting Report. Kirk was our Top Overlay Bet representing the golfer who offered the most value relative to the odds — circumstances that got even better when his odds dropped from 25-1 to 35-1. Our Best Bet was on Shane Lowry who was in contention going into Sunday but settled for a tie for 5th place. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten initial favorites was on Jhonnatan Vegas who finished tied for 21st place after registering a six-under round on Sunday. For the three golfers I endorse for a golf tournament, I also recommend a head-to-head prop bet as an avenue to take more advantage of the golfers I have identified that have value for that event. We went a winning 2-1 with those props with Kirk and Vegas winning their head-to-head tournament matchups but Lowry losing his Round One head-to-head prop with Billy Horschel who came out on Thursday of the week strong before taking a step or two back by shooting three-over par the rest of the way and finishing in a tie for 42nd place. Regulars now have over 53 weeks of free rolls from previous PGA Tour winnings since last summer -- meaning they could invest their X into our Best Bet, Top Overlay, and Long Shot each week for the next 53 events and still keep a profit. That'll work (again). Best of luck — Frank.

To Defer or Not Defer: Is Attempting an Earlier 2-Pointer trailing by 15 Helpful?

Tuesday, Jan 31, 2023

Imagine a football team trailing in the fourth quarter by 15 points. They are driving down the field. They then score a touchdown. A strategy decision now needs to be made: go for the two-point conversion now or wait for the next (necessary) touchdown to then attempt the two-pointer. Their head coach chooses to kick the extra point. Cue Analytics-influenced NFL writer, as if he or she is Batman seeing the Bat-signal for another mistaken coaching decision from the Big Bible Book of Football Analytics, 1st Edition (because the analytics do not need to be updated once the rules have been established. Did they have to ever update the Old Testament?). It's time to tweet!"Should have gone for two points now. Better to know now if you need to go attempt an onside kick." (Aren't I smart? Where is the drop-mic emoji on Twitter, anyways?).Look, I understand that the earlier on-side kick is advantageous since there may not be enough time for an on-side kick if you miss the two-pointer at 21-19 -- but that possibility still exists in the world where the head coach defers the on-side kick decision, by the way -- and that does play a role in the floating (and hidden) probability chart. However, the "it's better to get the info ASAP" argument is not nearly as a slam dunk as the Twitteratti and The Analytics Say crowd suggests. There are at least three reasons why deferring might increase the probability of success on a deferred two-point attempt. (1) More information is important -- and that also includes acquiring more play-calling knowledge regarding what is working (and why) against the defense. Another offensive series produces more observation and data regarding what is working and what is not. And if the probability of forcing overtime is highly dependent on the success of the eventual twp-point attempt, then getting into that play with the highest possibility of success takes on disproportional impact.(2) The defense is getting more tired as the game goes on. Attempting the same two-point conversion play later in the game could see an uptick in the probability of success simply if it occurs later. I have heard several NFL coaches espouse their belief that players hit a wall where fatigue sets in. I have heard former Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Paul Alexander identify this threshold at roughly 50 snaps per player.(3) The heightened momentum from a team attempting to tie the score with a deferred two-pointer may be higher than the earlier two-point attempt. After another offensive touchdown and a defensive unit now on their heels at the precipice of blowing a 15-point lead, the probability of success may be higher at the moment for the offense than it would have been at the first touchdown. Those three arguments are all playing the probability game that The Analytics Say folks revel in. But the best argument to defer the two-point decision is this: failing to convert the earlier two-point conversion might be too deflating for the trailing team.Simply kicking the extra point keeps the trailing team at a hypothetical one-score deficit. And to quote the great philosopher Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber: "So you're telling me there's a chance!"Keeping the deficit at only one score maintains hope for the trailing team -- and that is a team that still needs to score a second touchdown, either way. A missed two-point conversion is a deflating buzz-kill, with the metaphorical mountain needing to be climbed still very high. This is a calculation that is dependent on the belief in momentum. And by momentum, I mean, that human beings' performance can increase or decrease from their baseline effort based on positive or negative feelings. At its core, many of the applications of analytics presume that momentum does not exist. The experience of the moment is dismissed as a product of hindsight bias. Admittedly, most of the Gotcha! folks on Twitter are not aware of this. The savvier ones do appreciate that the application of the quantitative they are citing is dependent on every statistical moment being roughly the same -- a necessary component for their sample size to be valid and the application to the new situation (where they are now geniuses) being appropriate. So, many of the "get the info ASAP" folks will deny any negative impact of deflating a team from a failed early two-pointer because ... it is impossible to deflate a team, or something.In the end, I don't think it is a bad decision to take the two-pointer early. If an offensive coordinator thinks his team has the goods to convert the play at that moment, then go for it. But this notion that head coaches who do not attempt the two-pointer ASAP are making some huge mistake in the Big Book of Analytics is just a take from someone living in Clownsville. Best of luck -- Frank.

Anatomy of a 22-1 Winner: Handicapping Max Homa at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open

Monday, Jan 30, 2023

Max Homa began Sunday of the PGA Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines trailing by five strokes to Sam Ryder. But about after a half hour after CBS-TV was interviewing Ryder’s mother about his potential victory, Homa birdied the 16th hole while the pressure got to Ryder who double-bodied the 15th hole — and that three-stroke swing gave Homa the lead that he would not relent. Homa went on to birdie the Par-5 18th hole to finish a five-under-par round to soon win the tournament by two strokes over Keegan Bradley who finished in 2nd place. And Homa rewarded Hollywood Sports’ PGA Tour regulars with the win at 22-1 odds. That was our sixth 1st place winner in our last 16 PGA Tour events. Now those are not 16 consecutive weeks on the PGA Tour. I do take the fall from handicapping golf after the PGA Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta. It takes me three or so hours to research and handicap each PGA Tour event — and that is time I desperately need for football in the fall. Besides, most of the professional golfers take the fall schedule with a grain of salt without any of the majors on the schedule — so it is a good fit to forego this event during the height of the football season. There are only so many hours in the day. When the PGA Tour picks up again in early January, I begin handicapping golf again which is a nice fit with football winding down to just the NFL playoffs. It was nice to get our first winner under our belts for 2023 in the fourth tournament of the new year — and it continues a good run we were on to close out the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season. Homa looked intriguing at 22-1 odds for this event set just outside San Diego. Success at Torrey Pines requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — and it actually ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of three shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. Furthermore, heavy winds were expected on Thursday for the second round — and that will impact our strategy. We wanted to avoid golfers playing the easier North Course on Thursday since they will have to deal with these winds; instead, we wanted to want to target golfers who can take advantage of the easier North Course in better weather conditions on Wednesday. Jon Rahm was the clear favorite at this event given his red-hot form and excellent cause history here — and he was listed at a mere +450 at DraftKings to win this event. But he got the North Course on Thursday — giving us another reason to fade him (besides his odds being simply too small relative to the strong field).I always recommend three golfers per golf Betting Report. Our Top Overlay Bet for the PGA Farmers Insurance Open on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Max Homa who was listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Homa was born and raised in Southern California before playing his college golf at the University of California-Berkeley — so he is comfortable and experienced in this environment. He likes putting on Poa Annua greens. He had nine top-20s in his last 11 tournaments with Poa Annua putting surfaces — and that includes three wins. He ranked 6th in the field in Adjusted Scoring the last two years on courses with Poa Annua greens. Homa is in good form with his last event being at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions last month where he finished tied for 3rd place. Homa is well-rounded with good ball-striking skills. For the 2021-22 season, he ranked 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total while ranking 24th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. So far for 2022-23, Homa ranks 7th in Shots-Gained: Total and 21st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Homa finished tied for 18th at this tournament in 2021 after a tie for 9th place in 2020 — and I expected that he should be feisty in his return to La Jolla this year after missing the cut at this event last year. Homa also got to play the easier North Course on Day One before the winds amped up for everyone on Thursday (Day Two).For the three golfers I endorse for a golf tournament, I also recommend a head-to-head prop bet as an avenue to take more advantage of the golfers I have identified that have value for that event. Homa was linked with Taylor Montgomery in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Montgomery finished in the 57th place at the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2021 before a tie for 11th place at the Farmers last year. While that is a great finish for the rookie this season, I noted that 12 of the last 14 winners of this tournament had previously finished in the top-ten at this event — and Homa met this qualification with his 2020 performance. Montgomery is an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year this season after making all nine of his cuts with eight top-15 finishes. But his ball-striking is not elite. Montgomery ranks 157th on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 84th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Five of the last six winners at this event finished in the top-16 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week. Montgomery is an outstanding putter — but the long distance and the smaller greens at the South Course are a mix that does not fit his game. Montgomery ranks tied for 94th this season in his Approach from 200 yards or farther. Homa ranked 25th in that metric last season. Montgomery finished in 31st place by shooting even par for the four rounds, leaving us with an easier winner. Our Best Bet to win this event is on Will Zalatoris who was listed at +1800 at DraftKings. He did not fire well after a second round of 77 which led to him missing the cut. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites was on Maverick McNealy who was listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. He finished tied for 31st at even par — but he did outperform J.J. Spaun who was our tournament matchup head-to-head prop with him. With two of three prop bet winners on top of the 22-1 winner on Homa, the PGA Tour was very profitable for us this week. But long-term success betting gold requires close attention to money management principles. Here are my money management recommendations for regulars. I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Throughout the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week. Regulars now have over 44 weeks of free rolls from previous PGA Tour winnings since last summer -- meaning they could invest their X into our Best Bet, Top Overlay, and Long Shot each week for the next 44 events and still keep a profit. That'll work. Best of luck — Frank.

The Easiest and Thirstiest Take is to Critique the Matt Patricia New England Offense (and it is wrong)

Thursday, Dec 15, 2022

It is the safest -- and thirstiest -- hot take to criticize Bill Belichick for tapping Matt Patricia as his offensive play-caller. And yet these hot-take artists are telling on themselves. Do you know why most of Mac Jones' passes on Monday were behind the line of scrimmage?Three rotation players on the offensive line were out -- including starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn. Leading receiver Jakobi Meyers was out. DeVante Parker got injured early. Do ya think the Patriots should have then unleashed the Air Raid offense?Belichick wins so many games by simply waiting for the other team to make a mistake. And too many of these opponents are happy to oblige. This is why New England owns the tie-breaker versus the Jets.So many hot takers have been on hair-trigger tweet alert to bury Belichick since he has not had a Super Bowl contender since Tom Brady left. Isn't the sign of a great coach that your teams are still playing at .500 and contending for the playoffs without a franchise-level QB?Winning half the games appears to be the floor for Belichick (24-22 now post-Brady after Monday) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now.And I hate to break the news, but the Patricia/Judge combo is simply not the worst offensive coordinating staff this season if analytics mean anything (and these hot takers usually love them some 'lytics if it confirms their priors).Football Outsiders ranked New England 25th in Offensive DVOA (26th run, 22nd pass) before Monday. Yet “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at QB ranked 29th in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game.Certainly, Arizona has been hit hard by injuries (before Murray's season-ender in that game). But the Patriots don't seem to get the benefit of the doubt regarding their injuries on offense (because of the NFL pundit rule that injuries only matter when it salvages a prior).I get it: if I had been a loud "Let Russ Cook" type, being proven devastatingly wrong has gotta sting (as many of these voices were when that was the safe take). But going after the low-hanging fruit of Patricia now coaching offense exposes a general lack of understanding.Belichick believes wants to run the football while leaning on Special Teams and his 3rd ranked DVOA Defense to win games. I know this approach is not the route to get a 538 article, but it is, once again, putting the Patriots in the position to reach the playoffs.What would New England's record be if their offensive coaching staff asked Jones to throw 40+ times a game? Better than 17-13? With that offensive roster? Of course, Belichick is an idiot for not having Mahomes at QB and Jefferson at WR while keeping that exact defense.But Belichick and Patricia are operating precisely the offense they should be running to maximize their chance to win games. It may not win the Offensive DVOA Trophy. Yet New England ranks 12th in overall DVOA, despite failing the eye test of the analytics folks.(And, btw, if one wants to challenge the reliability of DVOA, please let me join your Ted Talk: I can add another 90 minutes of content if provided a 15-second warning). I use these numbers here because (a) they are tempo-free and (b) the Patriots/Patricia critics love DVOA.Bottom line: the worst offensive coordinators undermine that unit and team's overall potential. Matt Nagy was unable or unwilling to adapt the scheme he copied from Andy Reid in Chicago. The Chargers average 22.7 PPG with Herbert -- with their defense giving up 25.1 PPG.I don't have any love for Patricia -- but I need to get the games right. I am appreciating Joe Judge coaching Jones on the sidelines while the less personable Patricia calls plays (would he get more respect if he had an offensive play chart the size of a Denny's menu?) This is the Belichick offense. And it is similar to the offense that Tom Brady was operating in the first two seasons as a starting quarterback. Brady was not running the run-and-shoot in 2001. The Patriots were a run-first team then. Wait for other teams to make mistakes. Best of luck -- Frank.

Did the Kyler Murray Injury Just Save Kliff Kingsbury's Job?

Wednesday, Dec 14, 2022

When the Arizona Cardinals hosted the New England Patriots on Monday, it seemed like their enter season was on the line. With a 4-8 record, the Cardinals likely needed to win out the remainder of their games to qualify for the postseason. This was not how their season was supposed to transpire. Owner Michael Bidwell inked contract extensions to general manager Steve Keim, head coach Kliff Kingsbury, and quarterback Kyler Murray. This took an act of faith when considering that the Cardinals only made the playoffs once in Kingsbury and Murray’s previous three seasons with the organization. It has been a history defined by fast starts but steep late-season collapses. Two years ago, Arizona opened the year with a 5-2 record before losing five of their last seven games to settle for an 8-8 mark. Last year, The Cardinals won the first seven games of the season before losing five of their last six games for an 11-6 regular season record that earned them a date in Los Angeles against the Rams in the NFC Wildcard round. They got crushed in that game by a 34-11 score. Murray still had two years on his contract going into the 2022-23 season. Bidwell decided to relent to Murray and his agent’s demands to get a contract extension signed before the season started. A controversy ensued when there was an alleged clause in the contract that required Murray to dedicate four or more hours of study time per week when away from the team facilities, which many took as an insult since this is the standard operating procedure for most starting quarterbacks in the league. The rocky foundation from which this contract was signed carried over into the regular season. Arizona was scoring only 22.0 Points-Per-Game heading into Monday night’s game. Murray and Kingsbury have openly feuded on the sidelines. Injuries have played a role. The game against the Patriots was just the second time all season that wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown were healthy and playing together. But these excuses only go so far after the major parties that represent this team signed big extensions. Even without both top-end wide receivers, Murray’s numbers have been unacceptable. Arizona went into Week 14 ranking 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. Murray appeared to be regressing — and that evidence started with his struggles against pressure. He had been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. But it was not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking in the passing game. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. The exclamation point was this: Murray had lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Frankly, if Kingsbury was not able to turn things around, I expected him to be one of the first coaches fired on Black Monday the day after the regular season ended. He has always been a lightning rod since he was hired by the Cardinals even though Texas Tech, his alma mater, fired him after he failed to post a winning record. Perhaps Murray is to blame here — but you can’t fire the quarterback that you just signed to a big extension. Yet all of that changed when Murray suffered a torn ACL injury early in Monday night’s game. The recovery time on this injury is in the 10-12 month range — meaning Murray’s return ranges from next Halloween to next Christmas, depending on how the rehab process goes (and the deeper analytics do indicate that playing video games six hours a day does not help in the rehab process). Even if Murray were to return next year, the mobility that has been such a critical element of his skill set will take longer to get back to 100%. Donovan McNabb needed more than one season to get back to his previous mobility — and he developed into more of a dropback passer who was never the same running threat as he was pre-injury. Only recently has Joe Burrow regained his pocket mobility and scrambling skills he had before he tore his ACL two seasons ago. This is a devastating injury for Murray at a critical juncture in his career. If Bidwell had not signed him to the contract extension in the summer, raise your hand if you think Murray gets a new deal with the team after this injury. I am not seeing many hands …So what does this organization do now? After losing to New England on Monday, this season looks over. They have one of the better backups in the league in Colt McCoy, but he is probably not a preferred starting quarterback next season. But what the Murray injury does is put on hold the divorce proceedings between Kingsbury and him. Furthermore, I think this just bought Kingsbury another year as the team’s head coach. The Cardinals can now bring in a veteran out of a group of free-agent quarterbacks that will include Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, and Carson Wentz — with other quarterbacks like Zach Wilson and Drew Lock perhaps attainable. The team can take a flier on these players and determine if Kingsbury has the chops to put them in a position to fulfill their vast potential. The team can also draft a quarterback after the first round. If Kingsbury succeeds next season with one of these quarterbacks, then perhaps Murray has to compete for a job in 2024-25 (and he is given the entire season to rehabilitate his leg). If Kingsbury fails with another quarterback, then Murray can probably get on the field before the end of next season to see how it goes (and remove the stigma of his injury, moving forward). At that point, going into the 2024-25 season, Murray and his contract might be moveable. The news then came out on Wednesday that Keim is going on an indefinite leave of absence due to health reasons. This development only increases the likelihood that Kingsbury is given one more year since he offers stability for the franchise. Who knows, at this point, how long Keim will be away from the team? Presumably, Bidwell would want his long-term general manager making the head coach and quarterback decisions. The Keim situation should get settled before other big decisions are made. A week ago at this time, I firmly believed Kingsbury’s days were numbered. Now, I expect him to return for his fifth year as the head coach for the Arizona Cardinals. Cue Ferris Bueller: “Life moves pretty fast …”Best of luck — Frank.

The Trials and Tribulations of Jim Harbaugh (finally) Getting His Guy at Quarterback

Wednesday, Nov 30, 2022

I am thinking a lot about the University of Michigan football team -- as I work on the other programs that are in reach of making the College Football Playoff. A successful run in the bowl season and the three College Football Playoff games begins now. I previously wrote about how head coach Jim Harbaugh has made a concerted effort to promote player positivity by pushing them to smile and lift each other up on the sideline along with bypassing post-game on-the-field interviews to allow for his players to be featured on national television. After renegotiating a contract extension after the disastrous 2-4 campaign during the 2020 COVID season, the Wolverines have since gone 24-2 and seem poised to make their second-straight College Football Playoff (even if they were to get upset by Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game despite being 16.5-point or so favorites). There are plenty of reasons that help explain the improved success of this program. But perhaps an underrated dynamic is that Harbaugh finally has his recruits at quarterback developing and playing at his former position for his alma mater. When Harbaugh arrived at Michigan in 2015, he was considered a quarterback whisperer for his development of players at the position in which he starred for years for the Chicago Bears and the Indianapolis Colts among the four teams he played for in his NFL career. Harbaugh was a starting quarterback under head coach Bo Schembechler when playing at Michigan before graduating in 1987. As the head coach for the San Francisco 49ers, Harbaugh nurtured the development of Alex Smith who was considered a bust at the time despite being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. Harbaugh later made the controversial decision to bench Smith for Colin Kapernick whose running skills helped take the Niners to the Super Bowl. Harbaugh was the head coach at Stanford during Andrew Luck's collegiate career. One of his quarterbacks at the University of San Diego, Josh Johnson, is still in the NFL (Denver) after a 13-year career at 36 years old. When Harbaugh arrived at Michigan in 2015, 5th-year senior quarterback Devin Gardner had just graduated. Junior Shane Morris, redshirt freshman Wilton Speight, and freshman Alex Malzone were in the quarterback room -- all recruits from previous head coach Brady Hoke. While the transfer portal is now commonplace in 2022, this was not the case in 2015 -- but Harbaugh made the unconventional move of convincing Iowa graduate student Jake Rudock to transfer to Michigan to be his starting quarterback. Rudock was a two-year starter but appeared out of favor with the Hawkeyes making his ripe for the picking. Harbaugh coached the veteran up, the Wolverines finished 10-3 on the season, and Rudock would go on to have several seasons in the NFL off the strength of that season. The success of Rudock may have convinced Harbaugh that the transfer portal was an untapped resource to be taken advantage of -- but this assessment might have held the program back, in hindsight. Harbaugh brought in John O'Korn from Houston to compete for the starting quarterback job in 2016 after he was benched in his sophomore season under a new head coach (and spread offense). O'Korn showed potential as the Cougars' starter in his freshman season. Yet O'Korn struggled in making second reads and lost the job to Wilton Speight was a dependable game manager.Speight returned as the incumbent starter for his season in 2017. O'Korn was his backup. After redshirting the previous year, Morris transfers to Central Michigan as a former high-level recruit under Hoke. Redshirt freshman Brandon Peters, a Harbaugh recruit, is the third-stringer. The Wolverines go 8-5 with the offense lacking an explosive passing attack that only had eight touchdown passes all season. Speight gets injured late in the year. Brandon Peters gets the start in the Outback Bowl against South Carolina. The Wolverines lost by a 26-19 score with Peters showing glimpses but not enough to build the program around. Harbaugh hit the transfer portal again by attracting Shea Patterson to come to the program after losing his starting job at Ole Miss in his sophomore season. Patterson was a former five-star recruit that Michigan pursued but listed below is Dylan McCaffrey who came to the program from the same 2016 class. McCaffrey was the son of former NFL wide receiver Ed McCaffrey who was rated as the 5th best Pro-Style QB in the class. Peters remains in the mix in his sophomore season. Like O'Korn, Patterson was a starter in his freshman season putting up promising numbers while doing so in the SEC. With the writing on the wall, Speight transfers to UCLA for a graduate year. Patterson takes the starting job in 2018 and puts up the most efficient numbers at quarterback for the program since 2000. He successfully adapts from the no-huddle spread run at Ole Miss to Harbaugh's pro-style system. He returns as the definitive first-stringer with McCaffrey as a backup along with freshman Joe Milton who comes in with a rocket of an arm. But Patterson fails to take another step in development in his senior year when the Wolverines go 9-4. Michigan loses to Alabama in the Citrus Bowl by 19 points in their fourth straight loss in a bowl game. Patterson graduates and signs a contract with the Kansas City Chiefs as an undrafted free agent. He is now in the USFL.2020 was gearing up to be the year McCaffrey takes over under center in the fourth year in the program as a redshirt junior. Then the COVID pandemic occurs. The Big Ten cancels their football season in August before later rescinding that move. McCaffrey enters the transfer portal and takes his talent to Northern Colorado where his father was head coach (in 2021 and 2022, he puts up solid but unspectacular numbers playing against FCS competition). Milton wins the starting job to begin the season. Injuries force him out which allows Cade McNamara, a freshman from Nevada. The offense performs better under McNamara who makes is an effective game manager to who the players seem to respond. Milton transfers to Tennessee where he was tapped as the starter by first-year head coach Josh Heupel last year before getting benched for Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker who was a Heisman Trophy candidate before his season-ending injury last month. McNamara returns as a redshirt freshman with an extra year of eligibility from the COVID season in 2021. He faces competition from another quarterback in the transfer portal with former Texas Tech quarterback Alex Bowman entering the program after playing as a freshman before getting injured and losing his job. J.J. McCarthy also enters the fray as a freshman as a five-star recruit. With Bowman joining the program in the fall, McNamara wins the starting job before completing 210 of 327 passes for 2576 yards with 15 touchdowns and only six interceptions. McNamara leads the team to beat Ohio State for the first time in the Harbaugh era. Michigan makes the College Football Playoff for the first time. Yet the allure of McCarthy's upside as a vertical passer and as a runner remains with the Wolverines for the 2022 season. McNamara steadily improved in the offseason while demonstrating the leadership skills that led him to be a captain the previous season. Harbaugh makes the controversial decision to give both McNamara and McCarthy starts to begin the season to determine the quarterback competition. The offense ignites under McCarthy, giving Harbaugh a definitive answer which received almost no pushback from the fanbase. The rest is history, up to this point. McNamara deals with an injury during the season before announcing his plans to transfer. Incidentally, Bowman remains with the program. That is quite a genealogy. In hindsight, the Rudock transfer may have been the most successful move in the transfer portal. Patterson gave the team two solid years, but he did not meet the expectations of a former five-star recruit with the opportunity to work with the quarterback whisperer that was once Harbaugh's reputation. But Harbaugh's own quarterback recruits have been mostly misfires from Peters having middling success at Illinois to McCaffrey being only decent at Northern Colorado now and Milton losing the starting QB job at Tennessee. Watching McNamara lead a new program will be interesting to watch despite him not likely being an NFL quarterback. For the first time in eight years at Michigan, Harbaugh has a five-star quarterback under center that he both recruited and developed. Best of luck -- Frank.

Jim Harbaugh's Pivot to Player Positivity at Michigan

Wednesday, Nov 30, 2022

After the Michigan Wolverines hit rock bottom with a 2-4 record for the 2020 COVID-impacted season, Jim Harbaugh made several fundamental changes to his program after signing a new contract for lesser money (and a modest buyout if he were to leave for the NFL). Much has been said about his turning to his brother, John, for help with coaching talent on the defensive side of the football. And the offense abandoned Run-Pass Options for more of a power-rushing attack that relies on a zone-blocking scheme from the offenisive line like with the Baltimore Ravens (although last year's starting quarterback, Cade McNamara, did not offer much rushing skill). But a subtle change that Harbaugh made became very evident to many observers after the Wolverines defeated Ohio State by a 45-23 score in Columbus on Saturday: he goes out of his way to de-emphasize his presence so his players can be highlighted and featured in post-game on the field interviews. When Harbaugh first arrived at his alma mater after taking the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl, he was the rock star returning home to re-establish glory for his alma mater. He made a big splash on the recruiting trail with exploits like waiting outside recruit's houses before the midnight window opening when recruiting could begin or conducting glamorous signing day celebrations. Harbaugh was the face and identity of the team which would often backfire when he would blow his gasket on the sidelines arguing a call with the officials. But after no appearances in the College Football Playoff after the 2020 season, Harbaugh's sixth year with the program, and an 0-5 record against Ohio State, the approach was not working. Since last year after signing the renegotiated contract, Harbaugh has made a concerted effort to get as much attention off him as possible. In their first two games of the season against Western Michigan and Washington, Harbaugh made a point of ending his post-game on-the-field interviews as quickly as possible while pressing for one or more of his players to take over fielding questions. This tactic bordered on pure comedy after the victory in Columbus on Saturday with Harbaugh declining to even field an initial question while telling Tom Rinaldi to speak with quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Harbaugh then put on his Sports Information Direction hat on by going to find running Donovan Edwards and drag him to join that post-game interview with Rinaldi.This Michigan team has also been coached to be overly positive on the sideline. It would be fair to suggest that the Wolverines often played tight in close games early in Harbaugh's tenure. Michigan might have made the college football playoff in the 2016-17 season (even with a close loss to Ohio State) if not for an October loss to Michigan State when the Spartans blocked a punt and returned for a touchdown to steal that game in the final moments. The Wolverines seemed to play as if they did not want to let down their head coach. After Michigan scored on a 69-yard touchdown pass to Cornelius Johnson to tie the score at 10-10 despite the Buckeyes dominating the 1st quarter, the concerted emphasis on positivity became evident. The players were all smiles on the sidelines, jumping around and raising their hands to fuel to emotions. J.J. McCarthy literally had a happy face written in sharpie on his hand. Rinaldi later commented that Ohio State appeared tight on their sideline. It starts with the coach. It is interesting to contrast that Ryan Day does all the post-game on-the-field interviews for the Buckeyes. I have observed that he has been consistent in an attitude that suggests that the team is letting him down if his team is not up a few touchdowns. Brian Kelly had a similar persona in his first few first years as the Notre Dame head coach. Kelly eventually mellowed -- and the Fighting Irish saw improved results. Positivity can only go so far. Michigan will have to rely on their talent if they want to win a National Championship this season. But a commitment to embrace positivity can play a role in handling adversity. And ensuring that is his players that get the spotlight after big wins for the national television audiences goes a long way to recruiting the next batch of players. It sure looks fun to play at the University of Michigan right now under Harbaugh. And that is a change in fortune -- by design. Best of luck -- Frank.

The Decline of the Elder Statesmen Quarterbacks

Monday, Oct 31, 2022

What do Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have in common besides now living in bachelor pads? They both are enduring perhaps their worst professional seasons this year, both statistically and regarding the win/loss record of their team. But it is not just those two “future Hall of Famers.” Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford are two other quarterbacks who get described as future “Hall of Famers”. Yet of those players are struggling mightily this year. And then there is Matt Ryan, who got benched for the rest of the season by the Indianapolis Colts a week ago. Here is the interesting thing about Ryan. Brady, Rodgers, and Wilson have a combined 9-15 record with each of their teams saddled with a 3-5 record. Those three “future Hall of Famers” have combined for only one game where their team scored at least 30 points. They have combined for one game where they threw at least three touchdown passes. They have combined for three games where they threw for at least 300 yards. Ryan had a 2-4 record before seemingly getting benched for the rest of the season (by owner Jim Irsay) after the Colts lost for the second time this year to Tennessee last week. Ryan had a game where Indianapolis scored at least 30 points. He had one game where he threw three touchdown passes. And he had three games where he passed for at least 300 yards. Ryan literally matches the productivity of Brady, Rodgers, and Wilson despite playing two fewer games — and it was Ryan that got benched? What is going on? Brady announced that he has filed for divorce. But I am not sure how that impacts his poor decision-making in games. He found the time to blow off a Saturday morning meeting the day before a game as he was returning from attending Robert Kraft's wedding the night before. It is not a great look when he then berates his struggling offensive line. Perhaps as the G.O.A.T., he has earned the right to attend the owner of his former team's party? But if building morale is part of leadership, perhaps Brady chose the wrong communication strategy with his teammates if he wants to build positive chemistry. Sure seems like the list is growing of people that have grown tired of his schtick. You can hear all about it on his podcast "Let's Go" ...Speaking of podcasts, then there is Aaron Rodgers. It was apparent to everyone that Rodgers had the challenge to work with a new group of wide receivers after Davante Adams decided he no longer wanted to have his professional career dependent on a guy who talks about retirement every other week. Rodgers chose to not work with his rookie wide receivers in the offseason. But he is very quick to let everyone know how they are letting him down. Rodgers appears on his weekly podcast with Pat McAfee to make sure everyone knows the Packers' woes are not his fault. It's never his fault. And ever since Russell Wilson threw the interception on the goal line in the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots, it has never been his fault in some circles. Offensive coordinator Pete Carroll is to blame for not calling a running play to Marshawn Lynch (yes, I know Carroll is not the offensive coordinator, that is part of the joke). The Let Russ Cook cult dreamed of the day when Wilson could finally be unleashed as if there were no specific examples of the Seahawks abandoning a ground game to let Wilson throw the ball 40-plus times. It didn't work out. Now we are seeing what happens when Carroll can Let Pete Cook with the run-first game management approach with quarterback Geno Smith who is out-performing Wilson in every measurable way. I was described as "insane" once for merely questioning if the Seahawks got the better end of the deal with Denver, considering the contract that Wilson would demand. The question has been definitively answered now -- before Halloween.And then there is Matthew Stafford who has added only two more pick-sixes to his resume this year. He is on pace to match the four pick-sixes he threw last year with the Rams. Can you imagine how Geno Smith would be crucified if he threw two pick-sixes in his first eight games? Stafford has been dealing with a right elbow injury that some have used as an excuse for his mistakes. Did these observers watch him play when he was trying to force-feed the ball to Calvin Johnson when he was quarterbacking the Detroit Lions? To paraphrase Michael Corleone in The Godfather II when discussing the declining health of Hyman Roth, Stafford has been suffering from the same elbow injury for the last twenty years ... Best of luck — Frank.

When It Comes to Bill Belichick, Stop Drinking the Hator-Aid

Monday, Oct 31, 2022

Show me a guy who makes his money off proclaiming “The Analytics”, and I will show you a guy who loves to ignore statistics to offer his random opinion. Take Aaron Schatz, the founder of Football Outsiders, whose DVOA formulas to assess offensive and defensive efficiency are based on his subjective determination that first downs and time of possession are statistics that need not be incorporated (side note: is this because of a sincere belief that these data points are overrated, or is it because finding a formula that accurately incorporates the notions that (a) a first down offers the offense the benefit of a reset and (b) time of possession wears down defenses, decreasing their efficiency are both much harder than simply pretending that football Yards-Per-Play can be measured the same as Points-Per-Possession in basketball? I guess my feelings about this are not hidden in the question …).Anyways, here is what Schatz tweeted after New England got beat in Miami, 20-7: “On one hand, you've got people who want to say that one bad game proves ‘it was all Brady’ and Belichick was never great. On the other hand, you've got people who want to deny that the preseason and Week 1 looked pretty bad. Tom Landry was 17-30 in his last 3 years. It happens.”I wrote about this last month that it was perhaps a bit premature to start digging the grave of the Patriots. I also wrote this: “If a McVay acolyte made the playoffs with a rookie quarterback last year, let’s just say they would be appreciated differently.” Since writing that sentence, Belichick has won two more games this season using a rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe as his starter. That makes it 12 victories in the last twenty-five games with a rookie quarterback. Yet these guys like Schatz are so quick to fire off a Hot Take tearing down Belichick. Let’s see what the stats say about Belichick’s team, using Schatz’s DVOA formulas that conveniently ignore time of possession and first downs. New England goes into Halloween night ranked 14th in their overall DVOA numbers. They rank ahead of 6-1 Minnesota, 5-2 Tennessee, and the 6-2 New York Giants. The Patriots' defense ranks 7th in DVOA defensive ratings. It seemed pretty clear to me that Belichick’s formula for success since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay was to lean on a good defense while running the football.Perhaps it is the run-first philosophy that triggers angst in the quants? The potent passing attacks like the Bills and the Chiefs produce exciting numbers. Is it ironic that “But The Analytics Say!” guys often fail to appreciate the value of the running game? With their 22-17 victory in New York against the Jets on Sunday, the Patriots have won four of their last seven games since Schatz decided to evaluate preseason games to make his conclusion about the state of this New England team, sample size be damned. I know that win-loss records are overrated when compared to statistical formulas someone cooked up to then later proclaim as “objective.” But Belichick’s Patriots now have a 21-20 regular season record in the post-Brady era (21-21 when including their playoff loss last year). I’m pretty sure the advanced analytics come to the conclusion that a 21-21 record is better than Tom Landry’s 17-30 record in his final three seasons. To paraphrase Schatz's tweet: on the one hand, if you have people who are on hair-trigger alert to dog Belichick at every possible moment that his team played badly (and it sure happened after the Patriots’ stinker on Monday Night Football against Chicago). On the other hand, there are people who appreciate that if a coach’s floor is a .500 record when they do not have an established quarterback (and they win multiple Super Bowls when they do have a good quarterback), that is precisely the evidence of a great coach.You can count me in the latter category. Best of luck — Frank.

The Preseason Denver Broncos Hype Train Was Always Shaky

Thursday, Sep 22, 2022

Prior to the start of the NFL regular season, many pundits considered the Denver Broncos a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Russell Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet these observers failed to appreciate that the Broncos were a flawed football team that had endured five-straight losing seasons. Denver was not a football team that was simply a plug-and-play quarterback away from instantly being on the same level as the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson was already getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense was overrated from a season ago with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expected some growing pains. Boy, did I get that one right with Nathaniel Hackett now being torched nationwide for his decision-making and clock management skills. At this point, I think the avalanche against him is overblown. The Hot Take sports media always wants to find a whipping boy. That said, his hire perplexed me at the time. Why was he the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur? It seemed a pretty convenient rationalization at the time — along with Sutton and Jeudy being innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver preseason hype, one seemed too willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I was skeptical that such extremism was that simple. The Wilson acquisition could still elevate this franchise into AFC Super Bowl contenders. But if Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). NFL Films guru Greg Cosell commented this week that Wilson is failing to identify open receivers and responded too slow to defensive coverages. These are fixable issues, as are the game management problems that Hackett has dealt with in the first two regular season games of the season. And as the pendulum of the fickle betting market swings the other way, the Broncos may offer value with where their number lies. Remember, we bet numbers, not teams. But the reasons for early-season skepticism regarding the Denver Broncos appear to have had merit with the benefit of hindsight. Best of luck — Frank.

Guess What Other Patriots' Quarterback Used to Struggle in Miami?

Sunday, Sep 18, 2022

The critics were quick to pounce on Bill Belichick after the Patriots lost their opening week game in Miami to the Dolphins, 20-7. The most creative observations came from those who admitted that it is foolhardy to make conclusions from one game, but “let’s do it anyways!” It takes a certain level of bravery to acknowledge that is it Overreaction Monday after the first Sunday of the regular season to only still march forward. The Prior Beliefs must always be validated.It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. But it is not as if Belichick’s teams have not had a history of flat efforts this century despite having Tom Brady as his quarterback for most of those games. Brady, the G.O.A.T and much better than Mac Jones, lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. So, the G.O.A.T. was able to lead his team to rebound. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. This narrative is exposing some interesting assumptions about the role and responsibility of an offensive coordinator. Some idealize it at is a Platonic ideal of drawing up the perfect play in the sand. While Andy Reid, Mike Shanahan, and Sean McVay may draw up great plays, that is not the only job description. And, dare I say it, stealing great plays from other coaches is a perfectly acceptable tactic. That is something I suspect Patricia can be just fine at. Not every offensive coordinator has to reinvent the wheel to get “oohs” and “ahhs” on the Twitter validation machine. Preparing your offensive players to execute the game plan designed to expose flaws in your opponent’s defense seems closer to the mission statement of an offensive coordinator. It was simply too early to pass judgment on the Patriots after Week One — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. When in doubt, don’t overreact. If a McVay acolyte made the playoffs with a rookie quarterback last year, let’s just say they would be appreciated differently. And Jones got injured in that opening game in Miami. Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson seem to get the benefit of the doubt if it is discovered later that they were injured during the game. Perhaps they earned that right to have that be baked in the rules. But it is interesting to observe that often the only consistency when applying these rules is Confirming the Priors. Anyways, we won our AFC Game of the Month on New England (although some may have pushed if they got the play in late at -3). On to Monday …Best of luck — Frank.

Two Heisman Trophy Long Shot Bets (that both play on Thursday night)!

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2022

Call it the Island of Misfit Toys Bowl on the first Thursday night of the college football season when West Virginia travels to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh. Both these programs decided to turn to the transfer window in the offseason to help address the graduation of multi-year starting quarterbacks. And both of these quarterbacks were not only highly touted recruits coming out of high school, but both were once teammates together at USC. Both quarterbacks eventually decided to transfer amidst the chaos that has been the Trojans program under head coach Clay Helton the last few seasons. And both of these quarterbacks offer Long Shot odds at 200-1 to win the Heisman Trophy this year with their new team. Fourth-year head coach Neal Brown announced earlier this week that J.T. Daniels has won the job to be the Mountaineers' starting quarterback. It has been a bumpy journey for the former five-star recruit who began his college career in Los Angeles before a pit stop in Athens, Georgia before settling down now in Morgantown, West Virginia. Daniels graduated early from his high school in South Anaheim and was recruited to play at USC as the High School National Player of the Year. He threw for over 12,000 yards in high school with 152 touchdown passes — and he was groomed to be the Trojans’ immediate starter as a freshman as they began their post-Sam Darnold era in 2018. He had 11 starts in that first year while showing flashes of brilliance including completing 26 of 31 passes in the first half of the Notre Dame game. But injuries held him back and he entered his sophomore season in a competition with Jack Sears, a redshirt sophomore who played well in his absence and thrived during spring practice. Daniels attended just 24 passes in 2019 before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the Trojans’ opening game against Fresno State. The injury created the opportunity for freshman Kedon Slovis to take over running the offense after winning the backup job. Slovis went on to complete 282 of 392 passes for 3502 yards with 30 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. With the highest completion percentage by a freshman of 71.9% in the history of NCAA football, Slovis cemented his place as the team’s starting moving forward. Both Daniels and Sears saw the writing on the wall and entered the transfer portal in the offseason. While Sears moved on to Boise State the next season, Daniels aimed higher by enrolling at the University of Georgia for the 2020 season as a redshirt sophomore. Coming off knee surgery, the onset of the COVID pandemic with its impact on practice time did Daniels no favors when competing against the steady hand of senior Stetson Bennett IV. But when the Bulldogs fell to 4-2 on the season after a 44-29 loss to Florida, head coach Kirby Smart turned to Daniels as his starting quarterback for the final four games. Not only did Georgia win all four games, but Daniels demonstrated his vast potential by completing 80 of 119 passes for 1231 yards with ten touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Bulldogs' offense averaged 37.3 Points-Per-Game in those final four games with Daniels’ strong arm unlocking a big-play element to the offense that did not exist with Bennett. Many expected Daniels to be the incumbent starter for Georgia to open the 2021 season — and Smart tapped him as his first-string quarterback in their opening game showdown with Clemson. The Bulldogs pulled off a 10-3 upset win in that game — but Daniels did not lead the team to a touchdown drive (Georgia’s defense set the tone that would define their National Championship season by scoring on a pick-six). Daniels completed 22 of 30 passes but in what was a low-risk game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he passes for just 135 yards. He also had an interception. An oblique injury kept him out of the following game against UAB which gave Bennett another chance under center — and the former walk-on and fifth-year senior took full advantage by completing 10 of 12 passes for 288 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels was ready to play the next week against South Carolina — and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 303 yards with three touchdown passes in the start to lead the Bulldogs to a 40-13 victory. But then a lat injury held him back the next week in a game where he split time with Bennett who continued to play at a very high level while protecting the football. Daniels would only throw 94 passes all season with 68 completions, 722 yards, and seven touchdown passes. He was perched to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Bennett if the Bulldogs ever stumbled — but Georgia had a spot in the playoffs locked before the SEC Championship Game where they lost to Alabama but having it only cost them in the final four seeding. Bennett would lead Georgia to the National Championship and was coming back as a super sixth-year senior. Daniels decided to transfer to a program where he could win the starting job while showing off his talents for the next level. Back at USC, Slovis followed up his freshman season by completing 177 of his 264 passes for 1921 yards with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. But the Trojans disappointed their fans with an 8-4 record. He returned for his junior season in 2021 with the hopes of building off the promise of his freshman season — but he completed 193 of 297 passes for 2153 yards with 11 touchdown passes but eight interceptions in a lost season where they lost four of their first seven games en route to a 4-8 finish with Helton fired midseason. Slovis was eventually benched for yet another highly touted freshman in Jaxson Dart as the program looked to the future. When USC lured head coach Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma and he brought his star sophomore quarterback with him, Caleb Williams, the writing was on the wall. Slovis transferred to Pittsburgh to fill the shoes of a five-year starter, Kenny Pickett. With wide receiver Jordan Addison transferring to USC, he may not have the weapons needed to put up Heisman numbers. The Panthers also have a new offensive coordinator in Frank Cignetti, Jr. who has serious run-first tendencies from his time in the NFL as the offensive coordinator for the St. Louis Rams under head coach Jeff Fisher. But Slovis remains a senior with a career completion percentage of 68.3% with 58 touchdown passes in his three seasons. Pittsburgh was a team that scored 41.4 PPG and generated 486.6 total YPG last season — ranking 3rd and 5th in the nation. Slovis certainly had a better pedigree to challenge for a Heisman Trophy before Picket’s surprising campaign last year.Daniels may offer an even more intriguing case playing for West Virginia. He gets reunited with Graham Harrell as his offensive coordinator. Although Harrell’s first season as offensive coordinator at USC was the same year that Daniels got injured in the first game, there is already familiarity. Harrell is considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in college football — and head coach Neal Brown needs to make a splash with him firmly on the hot seat with a 17-18 record with the Mountaineers. Daniels has three returning starters at wide receiver to work with along with the benefit of an offensive line that returns all five starters. As of Monday when I visited the Westgate, both Daniels and Slovis were at 200-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy — the same odds as Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. With Alabama quarterback Bryce Young the favorite at 4-1 odds to repeat as the Heisman winner, this field seems wide open to me. Many bettors will prefer Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud or Williams at USC with Riley — but at 9-4 and 7-1 odds as of Monday at the Westgate, those are underlay values. On the other hand, I threw fliers on both Daniels and Slovis at 200-1 odds. In new environments and diminished expectations, both veteran quarterbacks could put up huge numbers while getting the benefit of the east coast media machine. They both have two mighty big chips on their shoulder after being cast away by USC. And they both get to make a strong initial impression on ESPN on Thursday night in front of a national audience. Best of luck — Frank.

Kill Your Darlings: NFL Handicapping and Roster Realities

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2022

When one attends film school to study screenwriting, it is all but inevitable that a professor will exclaim to a room of would-be writers that for success that they must be willing to “kill your darlings.” It has become a subject of folklore as to who first delivered this phrase. Stephen King has been quoted: “Kill your darlings, kill your darlings, even when it breaks your egocentric little scribbler’s heart, kill your darlings.” William Faulkner is supposed to have proclaimed: “In writing, you must kill all your darlings.” Scholars go back to 1914 when Arthur Quiller-Couch used the phrase “murder your darlings” when advising on writing style. The lesson coming from these writers is that one must beholden to a higher truth even if it comes at the expense of particular thoughts and ideas that one fancies. For the writer, there may be certain scenes or lines of dialogue that they find particularly clever — but that does not mean that the audience will share that sentiment. In the editing process, as final decisions are being made, the successful writer must be willing to be a harsh critic and remove these extraneous elements. Sports handicappers go through a similar process. We all have brewing ideas about how good or bad teams will be in the new NFL season. “Denver is a Super Bowl contender now that they have Russell Wilson under center!” Or, “New England is a mess since they do not even have an official offensive coordinator.” Things like this are interesting thoughts in the month of August. But successful handicappers must be willing to kill these darlings when looking at the specific circumstances of the game at hand — and then filter those thoughts with the actual point spread and total that have been assigned for that.Actual rosters — not the imagined ones in August — remain fluid even as the month turns to September. The 32 NFL teams cut down their rosters to 53 players on Tuesday. Teams have been scouring the waiver wire ever since looking for upgrades. Many teams' quarterbacks' rooms have completely changed. Some teams have picked up players in the last 24 hours will get significant playing time for them in Week One. The assumptions of August often get crushed by specific situations of September. Take the state of affairs regarding injuries, all coming from Pat Kirwan from his Moving the Chains afternoon show on Sirius NFL Radio. As of August 30th, there are 120 players on the Injured List. Feeling bullish this season about the Las Vegas Raiders? They lead the NFL with eight players already on their Injured List. There are another 29 players on the PUP list. Seven players are suspended. Another seven players are out due to non-football-related injuries. Thirty-three other players were waived because of injury. In all, 182 players are unavailable from that list -- a rough average of four-to-five per NFL team. The NFL will also have more rookies playing than ever before. More numbers from Kirwan, a former general manager for the New York Jets: 30 of the 32 1st round draft picks made teams as of Tuesday; 27 of the 32 picks from the 2nd round are on active rosters; 39 of 31 from the 3rd round; 37 of 38 from the 4th round; 31 of 36 from the 5th round; 26 of 43 from the 6th round; 26 of 41 from the 7th round. NFL teams have also signed 53 undrafted college free agents who made one of the 32 rosters. Kirwan put the previous average of undrafted free agents who make initial 53-man rosters in the 38-40 range. It is interesting that the 53 undrafted free agents that made rosters are more than the 52 players drafted in Rounds Six and Seven who made rosters. In total, 16.8% of the rosters after Tuesday’s cut-down deadline comprise of rookies. Maybe these rookies — and the injuries — will not impact that “sleeper” team who have fallen in love with this offseason. But to have consistent success this season in the NFL, when it comes to your initial thoughts in the preseason about how teams will fare, you better be willing to kill your darlings. Best of luck — Frank.

Addition by Subtraction, Part Two - Could Green Bay Get Better without Davante Adams?

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

In my previous post, I considered how the Kansas City Chiefs would be learning to live life without wide receiver Tyreek Hill this season. The Green Bay Packers face a similar challenge as well this year. The Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in their offseason after he requested to be moved given uncertainty regarding how much longer Aaron Rodgers plans to keep playing. Hill caught 111 balls last year for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns for the Chiefs last season. Adams was even better with 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At first — and second glance — it may seem absurd to suggest that the Chiefs and Packers’ offenses may be better off in the long run after losing such productive players. But both of these potent offenses stalled at times last year despite having elite quarterbacks and top-level weapons like Hill and Adams. These experiences last year offer an interesting comparison that just might illuminate why both organizations were comfortable moving on from two of the very best wideouts in the NFL.Green Bay lost at home in the NFC Championship Game to San Francisco by a 13-10 score despite the 49ers failing to score an offensive touchdown. It was the second-straight time that Aaron Rodgers saw his team get upset at home at Lambeau Field in the postseason. While the Packers had a 13-4 record in the regular season (while feasting on the weak NFC North competition), they only outgained their opponents by +37.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Rodgers has won two-straight Most Valuable Player Awards, but he has underachieved in the playoffs once again. Since leading Green Bay to the Super Bowl twelve years ago, Rodgers has a 7-9 record in his 16 playoff games. Firing Mike McCarthy and bringing in a head coach who had lunch once with Sean McVay was supposed to be the solution for the Packers’ offense when they hired Matt LeFleur in 2019. But despite a 39-10 regular season record, the offense has stagnated for this team in the playoffs. In the case of the Chiefs, I argued that the allure of trying to get the ball to Hill was too intoxicating for Mahomes even when defenses overcompensated by playing two-high safety looks. I think the dynamic is similar for Rodgers when it comes to Adams, albeit for different reasons. The now 38-year-old veteran seems to have become finicky in his later years in the league. His “trust” factor with his wide receivers seems to be much higher than it is for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning back in his day who both seemed to need a few workout sessions before being comfortable in throwing the ball to (wide open) secondary targets. Of course, Brady and Manning are notorious for vigorous offseason programs designed to facilitate this trust and comfort. That’s not necessarily Rodgers’ thing. He seems to need years of experience and familiarity with his wide receivers before he develops trust. That helps explain why he drew a line in the sand last year for management to support his wishes by acquiring former Packer Randall Cobb as a free agent from Dallas despite his being on the wrong side of 30 years old. Cobb caught 28 balls for 375 yards last year. Like Mahomes being enthralled with the electric plays he connected with Hill on a frequent basis, it is easy to understand why Rodgers would key on Adams. The now-former Packer has great hands with a huge catch-radius and runs very precise routes. But when it becomes clear to everyone — including the 49ers defense and the bettors backing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game — that Rodgers is either going to throw the ball to Adams, running back, Aaron Jones, or an occasional lob to the 37-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, good defenses are capable enough to stop that. The Kansas City offense looks poised to get back to relying on schemes over talent this season. In Green Bay, the Packers will likely make a similar transition out of necessity. Like a parent hiding the video game console to get their child to do their homework, Rodgers will have to find new receivers to move the ball downfield if he wants to continue counting to throw the football in 61% of their snaps. Allen Lazard has the potential to step up as a primary option. Second-round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in college. Amari Rodgers is a second-year player from Clemson who was drafted with fanfare but only caught four balls last year. Sammy Watkins was signed as a free agent from Baltimore with still tremendous albeit unfulfilled upside. Cobb is still around, as is Jones and A.J. Dillon catching balls out of the backfield. I am more optimistic about the Kansas City offense than I am about the Packers’ offense at this early point of the season — but the Green Bay defense is significantly better than the Chiefs’ defense right now. Losing talents like Adams and Hill is tough. But in a league that is lauded for rule changes that favor offenses and with offensive coaches given so much adulation for their innate talent to draw up plays, it is surprising to observe so much skepticism regarding the prospects for both these offenses despite the likely increased reliance on schemes and fundamental play-calling this season. Best of luck — Frank.

Addition by Subtraction, Part One/ Could Kansas City Get Better without Tyreek Hill?

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

The Kansas City Chiefs will be learning to live life without one of the top wide receivers in the business this season. The Chiefs declined to outbid the services for Tyreek Hill who signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason. Hill caught 111 balls last year for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Adams was even better with 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At first — and second glance — it may seem absurd to suggest that the Chiefs’ offense may be better off in the long run after losing such a productive player. But, there is a case to be made. Kansas City blew a 21-3 halftime lead against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game to lose in overtime by a 27-24 score. Only scoring a field goal in the second half against the Bengals defense despite playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium is a concern. While their 28.2 Points-Per-Game scoring average and 396.8 total Yards-Per-Game tally were both ranked top-four in the league, both those marks were a decline from their 2020-21 averages. Patrick Mahomes averaged 284.6 passing YPG which was the lowest mark in his career. His 98.5 Passer Rating ranked only 10th in the NFL and was his lowest mark in his career as well. This all happened despite Mahomes playing behind a rebuilt offensive line that was much improved versus the unit that could not protect him in the 2021 Super Bowl against Tampa Bay. So, what gives?Opposing defenses began to find success against Mahomes by plying two-high safety coverages. In the copy-cat NFL, Mahomes began facing these defenses that were comfortable taking away deep balls week-after-week. Only 14.6% of the passes from Mahomes resulted in a reception of at least 15 yards, ranking 19th in the NFL. The freakish ability for Mahomes to make something about of nothing from broken plays was being taken away by these two-high safeties and dime defenses with six or more defensive backs. The play of the Chiefs defense did not help matters, especially early in the year before the club acquired Melvin Ingram for their defensive line which allowed Chris Jones to move back to his more comfortable interior of the line. Mahomes probably felt pressure to make something happen with his team trailing, but that may explain why Kansas City committed 25 turnovers which was their highest number since 2012. Mahomes has gotten very comfortable looking for Hill when he got into trouble. Hard to blame him given how great Hill is. The longer Mahomes could extend the play with his legs, the more likely the speedy Hill could find daylight and get open — and connecting on those video game plays had to be exhilarating. But the concern for many observing Mahomes was that he was too quick to abandon ship in the pocket and get into video game mode. This is where removing the temptation of what Hill offers may serve Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense in the long run. To be clear, the primary consideration for the Chiefs in not resigning Hill was the high premium he was finding on the open market that became a boon for wide receivers in the offseason. Kansas City could not afford the big contracts of Mahomes, Hill, tight end Travis Kelce while still making the moves they needed to make to improve their defense which included the need to replace three starters in the defensive backfield. But head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy have some exciting opportunities with their offense in this new era without Hill. Mahomes breakout out of the pocket should be Plan C or D, not Plan B as it became in the last few years. Reid and Bienemy want Mahomes to distribute the football quickly to receivers in space. Losing the Hill temptation helps the offense return to these fundamentals. The team has replaced Hill with several diverse talents than can help Mahomes spread the ball better than he has in the past. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a free agent signing from Green Bay who can provide the deep threat that Hill offered while adding intriguing size from his 6’4 frame. Valdes-Scantling is also an outstanding blocker. JuJu Smith-Schuster was signed from Pittsburgh to offer a reliable set of hands operating from the slot. Second-round pick Skyy Moore from Western Michigan offers the high-level route running that Hill provided. Josh Gordon remains on the roster with huge upside still if can overcome his problems off the field. Mecole Hardman Jr. is in his contract year and still has the speed that attracted them to draft him as a complement to Hill three years ago. And the number one option remains Kelce who caught 92 balls for 1125 yards with nine touchdowns last year. Reid and Bieniemy have to be confident that they can design plays that get these receivers open quickly. Rather than keying in on Hill, the Chiefs’ offense will improve if Mahomes successfully spreads the ball out more this season. Defenses will offer double-coverage against Kelce (still) but the offense has too much speed and should be able to punish that (understandable) decision. It is understandable why Mahomes began leaning on his talent. If the Kansas City offense can get back to relying first and foremost on their schemes, then they should be able to avoid blackouts like they experienced in the second half in the AFC Championship Game. Then, watch out. Best of luck — Frank.

Golden State: A Great Dynasty and Just Good Enough in a Down 2021-22

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors for winning their fourth NBA title since 2015. That answered critics worried that they were a team caught between generations from their core three of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green and their new generation of young players led by James Wiseman, Jordan Poole, and Jonathan Kuminga. But in hindsight, the Warriors may be remembered as a team carried by Curry who got it done despite an inconsistent Thompson still in long-term recovery from his torn ACL and Achilles injuries and a declining Green who already appears to be in the second half of his career. I thought this would be a seven-game series that the Warriors would win (but I remained undecided on the likely point spread winner early on during the NBA Finals). I incorrectly thought Boston would play Golden State very tough on the road in the decisive fifth game. Could the Warriors get yet another superman effort from Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting in Game Four to even the series at 2-2? Head coach Steve Kerr had a dilemma regarding offering playing time to Kevon Looney. Golden State had a significant weakness in rebounding that comes with their reliance on outside shooting. In the Celtics’ 116-100 win in Game Three, they controlled the boards and outrebounded the Warriors by a 47-31 margin. They scored 52 points in the paint and scored 22 points off 15 offensive rebounds which allowed them to win by 16 points despite only making 12 of 35 shots (37.5%) of their shots from 3-point range. Kerr gave Looney more court time in Game Four to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Game Three. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end. Boston head coach Ime Udoka was unable to push the buttons in Games Five or Six to expose that liability — but that may speak more to the limitations of his team playing in their first NBA Finals. Game Five was certainly pivotal — and it exposed the lack of championship experience of this Celtics group. It reminded me of how Golden State lost 2016 final to Cleveland. Boston’s Marcus Smart got too caught up in drawing fouls and flopping, a game within the game. Smart was flopping throughout the second half in a close game and then whining for calls which is just rarely going to happen for teams playing on the road (and by a player who lacks a title, despite being the reigning Defensive Player of the Year). And then the refs rewarded Jordan Poole's flop from a phantom Smart elbow (that missed by a mile) that the officials still called as a flagrant foul. That helped cement Golden State's 4th quarter momentum swing. The refs injected themselves into the game — and they got it wrong. Boston dug themselves too big a hole to win Game 5, but, wow, they still could have covered if they could have just been given the room to rebound before the refs started giving the Warriors 3-point swings (and Smart being on tilt did not help, of course). That Poole 3-pointer at the buzzer to end the third quarter certainly played a role in re-establishing the momentum for Golden State — and laid the foundation for Smart losing focus by doing his best Neymar impersonation by flopping around before Poole gets away with his flop. The Warriors went on to win by a 104-94 score despite Curry having that off-day by missing all nine shots from behind the arc.The Celtics' lack of urgency in handling and passing the basketball was been infuriating to watch at times. They had yet to learn that every playoff possession demands finer attention to detail — when Golden State turns the ball over, it is usually a function of their attempt to be aggressive (and is more forgivable). Too many of Boston’s 18 turnovers in that Game Five were a product of lackadaisicalness. It was tied for most turnovers they had committed in their last nine games and tied for the second-most in their last 62 games. Conversely, the Warriors only committed six turnovers in Game Five which was tied for the fewest turnovers they committed all season going back to Game Three of the regular when they also only had six turnovers at Sacramento on October 24th. The Celtics need to upgrade their point guard position in the offseason, but a lack of a true distributor does not explain how they followed up those 18 turnovers in Game Five with 22 turnovers in Game Six. Udoka could not fix the too many unforced errors that were giving Golden State scoring opportunities in transition. Maybe Boston will learn from the experience. But I do not think this Warriors team beats the Warriors team in 2017 that lost to the Cavaliers. And this group certainly does not beat the LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love trio. Golden State then won two titles with Kevin Durant the third wheel with Curry and Thompson. But this ’21-22 group reminded me of that ’17 squad that got caught up in talking and engaging in flopping theatrics with Cleveland that eventually led to Green missing a game due to suspension. When the Cavaliers trailed 3-2 in that series, James had his team completely dial into the task at hand. The Warriors still were engaging in the extra-curricular — and it played a role in them losing the last two games in the series. I am not sure this 2021-22 team learned much from that experience (outside of the value of adding Durant). But Golden State did benefit from playing a young and inexperienced Celtics team. They did not even have to play the young and inexperienced team from the year before the Phoenix Suns who could not get past Dallas. That Mavericks team had one great player in Luka Doncic before then banking on getting hot from behind the arc. Boston benefitted in getting to the finals by outlasting the reigning champions in the Milwaukee Bucks who were without their second-best player, the injured Khris Middleton. And do not start about the Brooklyn Nets because if you think that team had a switch somewhere to somehow start playing defense and finding an offensive flow to their game behind the big two of Durant and Kyrie Irving who are living off the reputations of postseasons past, then you were watching a different game than me. The 2021-22 NBA season was a down year in the overall quality of the elite teams in the league. Kudos to Curry for doing what James did in the season in the bubble to seize on the championship opportunity. But while the Warriors were perhaps a team caught between generations, I suspect the NBA is experiencing a similar transition. While the NBA media breathlessly wonders about the offseason fates of Durant, Irving, and James Harden, I look to the league’s young superstars like Doncic, Ja Morant, and a handful of other players with loads of potential where the likely future NBA titles — and potential dynasties — will be had. Best of luck — Frank.

The Evolving Understanding of Baseball Sabermetrics

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

While alternating between watching Game Six of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and Sunday Night Baseball between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves, ESPN displayed a surprising list: Pitching Leaders in BABIP. BABIP is an acronym for “Batted Average on Balls In Play”. Removing home runs and strikeouts from a hitter's batting average is a more specific manner to detail batting average perhaps offering better insight into how hitters and pitchers are performing. It is an offshoot from some of the ideas initially espoused by early sabermetrician Voras McCracken who developed the influential metric “Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics.” I mention McCracken because his seminal paper on this subject offered a narrative of his as a child hitting balls in a cemetery where he discovered that what happens to the batted-ball put into play is purely a function of luck. What struck me at the time was how mediocre of a wiffleball hitter McCracken must have been. Any backyard wiffleball hitter developed at least some skill in being able to place a batted ball in a certain direction. But it had become a foundational established truth of sabermetrics that hitters had no control over the batted ball, despite the seeming inconsistency that hitters had plenty of control over the batted ball if it landed over the fence for a home run. The fantasy baseball “experts” at ESPN would eager to deploy BABIP to identify players who were due for improved or declining numbers based on their BABIP number. Pitchers with high BABIPs were unlucky and those pitchers with low BABIPs were too lucky and sitting ducks to get blown up in their next appearance. Using the same logic, hitters with high BABIPs were riding good fortune, and hitters with low BABIPs were likely due to see better numbers. The fact that future Hall of Famers like Ichiro Suzuki was usually at the top of the BABIP list for hitters and Clayton Kershaw was at the top of the lowest BABIP numbers for pitchers gave little direct pause to the experts (probably not enough space at the website to detail that along with the trials and tribulations of their fifth-place teams in all their “experts” league in content as compelling as food pics on Twitter). In later years, these fantasy baseball experts (a few who are still detailing their latest experts league exploits even today) reigned in their BABIP as “all luck” to then claim it was all the amateur fantasy baseball players who were misusing BABIP. The expert manner to deploy the metric was more nuanced and sophisticated, you peons, yet this must have been ESPN's proprietary information as these experts rarely communicated how to evaluate the nuances. And the assumption remained that Ted Williams simply had no power to impact where the ball went off his bat. So to now see ESPN now fully incorporate BABIP into their “endorsed” statistics for their Sunday night broadcast — but with the assumption that BABIP is a component of skill — well, I was amused. This is the same network that will have their 4th-and-1 percentages come down from the heavens in the fall to tell you how much smarter they are than the idiots coaching football teams — all setting up their 12 hours of Hot Take Debate TV programming the next day. Fielding independent statistics was always more complicated to discover hidden meaning that McCracken and ESPN fantasy baseball experts suggested. But to paraphrase Marshall McLuhan, the “medium is the message” — and in this instance, the appearance of having more sophisticated knowledge of baseball is too often the point of the message, regardless of the coherence of the argument. There is a reason why these experts get to selectively mention the current state of their dozen fantasy baseball teams. They are experts because we were just told they are experts. For handicappers and bettors, having the “expert” business card laminated for posterity does not help at all if picking loser after loser at the betting window. For me, I experimented for a few years comparing team BABIP numbers versus the starting pitcher’s BABIP to determine discrepancies: playing behind the same defense, were certain starting pitchers generating big gaps in the net BABIP differential? If so, that difference could help identify starting pitchers who were experiencing luck/unluck relative to their baseline numbers. What I am looking for is underlying numbers that offer conflicting evidence to how a starting pitcher looks when only evaluating Win/Loss record, ERA, and WHIP. Eventually, I began analyzing these discrepancies between team BABIP and starting pitcher BABIP but made it specific to ground balls and line drives. A batter probably does not want to hit a ground ball, so those numbers might illuminate luck (or unluck for the pitcher) if the BABIP for ground balls is high. On the other hand, hitters want to hit line drives — so high Line Drive BABIPs is probably a good thing for hitters (and a bad thing for pitchers).I had pretty good success with this approach, but it took a lot of work. Eventually, I concluded that the advanced ERA formulas used by SIERA and xFIP did a fine enough job of identifying starting pitchers that were due a visit from the Regression Gods, either in a good or bad way. The xFIP metric stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (admittedly, from the McCracken family tree of logic). I like it because it normalizes the home runs that a pitcher allows from their fly ball rate since home runs allowed are also dependent on other factors like the ballpark). The folks at Baseball Prospectus developed SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average) in a complicated formula that attempts to project the ERA moving forward by taking into account the types of batted balls a pitcher puts into play. I like this tinker because it leaves room for the possibility that hard-hit balls (and direction) are a function of skill. It reminded me of the work I was doing with BABIP specific to Line Drives (hard-hit balls). These days, I use xFIP and SIERA as guides — but it is only one of the tools in my toolboxes. Most pitching metrics have a bias against ground ball pitchers despite the sustained success of pitching coaches like Dave Duncan of the St. Louis Cardinals who seemingly had his pitching staff overachieve for years. Fortunately for me, my reliance on team trends kept me away from betting against too many Cardinals’ starting pitchers hoping that their poor fielding independent numbers (like low strikeouts) would finally start catching up with them. Sports analytics continues to evolve, especially for those of us dependent on good results rather than self-serving propaganda. Look for basketball and soccer to improve in their evaluation of players and teams when they start detailing expected baskets/goals versus an individual’s net edge versus expected baskets and goals. Like Ichiro, Kershaw, and Ted Williams, Stephen Curry and Lionel Messi are elite players for a reason. Best of luck — Frank.

NHL Playoff Over/Under Trends After Rounds One and Two

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Once again, I want to return to assessing totals trends in the Stanley Cup playoffs. One of the data items I track is Over/Under results for each NHL game. I have found that there are certain games in a playoff series that are more likely to go Over the Total and other games in a series that is likely to finish Under the Total. Following these trends helps to inform my decisions regarding when to invest in a Total — and when to avoid investing in a Total I was leaning towards. These are not rules; it would be foolish to just zombie auto-bet the Over just because Game Threes in a playoff series have tended to be higher-scoring affairs. Data mining empirical trends like that — and then relying on them — is a good way to lose a bankroll. Instead, this data provides just another piece of evidence to consider when evaluating the case to play an Over, an Under, or to pass on the Totals situation. Game Ones had four Overs and four Unders in Round One of the Stanley Cup playoffs. In the second round, there was one Over and were three Unders in Game One. That leaves the running total for the 2022 NHL playoffs with five Overs and seven Unders. Last postseason, Game Ones had seven Overs and eight Unders. The grand total for Game Ones in the last two playoff seasons is now 12 Overs and 15 Unders. Game Twos had four Overs and four Unders in the first round this postseason. There was then one Over and three Unders in the second round. That leaves the running totals for the 2022 postseason at five Overs and Seven Unders. In last year’s playoffs, there were four Overs and 11 Unders in Game Two. The grand total for Game Twos in the last two years in the postseason is nine Overs and 18 Unders. Game Threes had six Overs and two unders in Round One of the playoffs this year. In Round Two, there was one Over and three Unders in Game Threes. The running numbers in the 2022 playoffs for Game Threes at seven Overs and five Unders. The Over was 9-5-1 in last year’s 15 Game Threes. The grand total for Game Threes in the last two postseasons is 16 Overs, 10 Unders, and one push.Game Fours had five Overs and three Unders in Round one of this year’s playoffs. In Round Two, there were two Overs and two Unders this postseason. There have been seven Overs and five Unders in Game Four in these playoffs. Last year, the Over was 6-7-2 in Game Fours. For the last two playoffs, there have now been 13 Overs, 12 Unders, and one push. Game Fives had five Overs, one Under, and one push in the opening round of the playoffs this season. In Round Two, there were two Overs and one Under. Games Fives have seen seven Overs, two Unders, and one push in 2022. Last year, the Over was 4-9-1 in the 14 Game Fives that were played. Overall, there have been 11 Overs, 11 Unders, and one push in the last two playoffs for Game Fives. Game Sixes had five Overs and two Unders in Round One this postseason. In Round Two, there was one Over and one Under. So far this postseason, there have been six Overs and three Unders in Game Sixes. Last year, the Over was 4-3-2 in Game Sixes. In the last two playoffs, there have been 10 Overs, six Unders, and two pushes. Game Sevens had one Over, three Unders, and one push in the playoffs this season. The lone Game Seven in the second round went Over the Total. For 2022, there have been two Game Seven Overs, three Game Seven Unders, and one push. There was one Game Seven Over last postseason and two Game Seven Unders. Over the last two playoffs, there have been three Overs in Game Seven, five Game Seven Unders, and one push.This data over a couple of surprises. The Game Two and Game Three numbers continue to be of note. The sample sizes are small, so there is not much to conclude from just the first round. But this information continues to fine-tune the data I have been collecting. And trends may change over time. Perhaps this data would offer more value if the closing number is separated from the game number in the series, although that will make the sample sizes even smaller. By the semifinals of the NHL playoffs last year, both series were seeing consistent totals of 5s. A year later, there have been 44 playoff games in the first two rounds where the oddsmakers had the total set at 6.5. In Round One, there were 17 Overs and 13 Unders in the 30 games with the total at 6.5. In Round Two, there were seven Overs and seven Unders in the 14 games with the total at 6.5. That leaves the Over with a 24-20 mark in the 44 playoff games this year with a total of 6.5.I will keep looking at these trends in the second round of the playoffs. Assessing this data is just another tool in the toolbox.Best of luck — Frank.

The Phoenix Suns Do Not Have a "Math Problem" -- On Lazy Thinking about 3-Point Shooting

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

As the eulogies for the demise of the Phoenix Suns continue, a common refrain is that this team was destined to experience trouble in the postseason because they are too reliant on shooting inside the arc. This notion is both lazy and wrong — and it had nothing to do with why they lost their Game Seven showdown at home to the Dallas Mavericks by a whopping 123-90 score. Just a gentle reminder for those not old enough to remember the 2020-21 season: the Suns won the Western Conference and played in the NBA Finals. Granted, they lost that series to the Milwaukee Bucks in Six Games, but that does challenge the notion that Phoenix’s style of play was only built for regular-season success (and granted, it was a year ago at this time when many of these same critics were convinced they were better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because of their sophisticated opinions on the best way to execute drop coverages about pick-and-rolls; funny, the “Budenholzer can’t coach” crowd has become silent). Phoenix did go into the fourth quarter of that Game Six on the road with the game tied. Most teams that leap from not even making the playoffs the previous season to being one quarter away from playing in a Game Seven of an NBA Finals would be lauded. Not Phoenix — they have a fundamental “math problem” because they fail to grasp the fact that three points are more than two points. The Suns indeed are one of the least reliant teams on 3-point shooting. Last year, they took 39.2% of their shots from the field from behind the arc, ranking 15th in the league. That number actually dropped in the playoffs to a 35.6% clip, ranking 13th of the 16 teams in the postseason. Phoenix’s Offensive Efficiency ranked 7th in the NBA in the regular season -- and it did drop to 10th in the postseason. But before you started screaming “Evidence!” — keep in mind that Milwaukee was crowned champion ranking 11th in the postseason in Offensive Efficiency despite taking 38.4% of their shots from 3-point range. Here’s the thing about math: making 34% of your 3-point shots does not produce more points than making, say, 52% of your 2-point shots. If a team takes 100 shots — all from 3-point land — and hits 34% of them, that results in 102 points. If their opponent takes 100 shots — all 2-pointers inside the arc — and hist 52% of these shots, they generate 104 points. Losing by two points, 104-102, presents a “math problem” for the team relying on 3-pointers. This season, Phoenix saw their 3-point attempts actually drop to a 35.4% clip of all the shots they took from the field, ranking 27th in the NBA. But not only did they then earn the top record in the regular season, but they also raised their Offensive Rating to fifth in the league. In the playoffs, their 3-point shooting actually lowered to representing just 32.8% of their shots, ranking 15th of 16 teams. Yet their Offensive Efficiency ranked 4th of all playoff teams. But, wait! The problem for the Suns is they ran into a Dallas team that simply understood how math works. The Mavericks top all postseason teams by attempting 49.8% of their shots from 3-point range. They get it! Three is more than two, idiots! Yet Dallas ranked just 14th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency in the regular season, they enter the Western Conference Finals ranking 5th in Offensive Efficiency — just behind the Suns' team they just dispatched. Yeah, but, Phoenix sure could have used some 3-point shooting in their humiliating loss to Dallas in Game Seven! The Mavericks set the tone by nailing 19 of their 39 shots from downtown for a 49% clip. Well, you will get no argument from me that it is tough to beat a team that makes nearly 50% of their shots from behind the arc — especially when they take half their shots from 3-point land. But the Suns did attempt 34 shots from 3-point range themselves — and their 35% field goal percentage from their 12 made 3s was around their average. What buried Phoenix in Game Seven was that they could not make their shots inside the arc. They missed 32 of their 53 shots that count for 2-points for a 39.6% percentage. The Suns had a 55.2% field goal percentage inside the arc in the regular season. If they meet that expectation in Game Seven, they make eight more baskets and score 16 more points. Admittedly, that only cuts the Dallas lead in half — but going into halftime trailing by 15 points is much different than going into halftime down an incredible 30 points. If Phoenix hits their 2s, the game script changes, and the Mavericks feel more pressure on the road — and perhaps they don’t continue their torrid 56.8% shooting clip. It’s a lot easier to make shots up 30 points. The Suns have problems. The effort in that Game Seven was not simply the result of bad luck outliers given the math problem inherent in the chaos of shooting a round ball into a round hole. But this was a team that began the playoffs with eight straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots (twice eclipsing 60%) and posted an Offensive Rating of 114.8 (which would be third best if applied to the regular season). Furthermore, the case can be made that Phoenix’s consistency with their shooting inside the arc helped them win close games during the regular season. In clutch situations where the game was still within five points with five minutes left to go, the Suns enjoyed an Offensive Efficiency Rating of 131.6. That helped them post a 33-9 record in games that were within five minutes with five minutes to go. The football analytics folks would argue that those results are completely a function of luck. The basketball analytics folks are more open to the idea that perhaps success like that is a function of skill. Of course, Phoenix was touchdowns away from being within five points of the Mavericks with five minutes left to go in their Game Seven. But to suggest that the problem with the Suns is that their offense would be better if they simply took more 3-point shots because “3 is more than 2!” is monumentally lacking. Don’t get me wrong, I do think Phoenix could use another reliable outside shooter. But the system deployed by head coach Monty Williams is not fundamentally flawed. The Suns got embarrassed in Game Seven because they are broken elsewhere. Best of luck — Frank.

The Fall of Manchester United

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

Manchester United has been a slow but inevitable train wreck waiting to happen ever since the club parted ways with manager Jose Mourinho in December of 2018. But it took the short-sighted signing and return of Cristiano Ronaldo this season to accelerate the collapse of this squad built on a shaky foundation. On paper, things do not appear so bad for the Red Devils. They began Matchweek 35 in sixth place in the English Premier League table. They reached the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League before losing to Atletico Madrid in the Round of 16. No shame losing to that Spanish side that won La Liga last season and who have been perennial Knock State participants in the Champions League under manager Diego Simeone. But Manchester United has probably little chance of returning to the Champions League next season being five points behind the fourth-place Arsenal who holds the final qualify spot — and the Gunners have two matches in hand still relative to the Red Devils. The underlining dynamic is of a team that is moving quickly in the wrong direction. The sacking of Mourinho in the middle of the 2018-19 campaign was warranted. He was in his third year managing the team — and that is about his shelf life before his prickly personality alienates both his players and upper management. The team was underperforming on the pitch. Management brought in a former player in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to serve as the caretaker manager — and the team responded by winning 14 of 17 matches at one point the rest of the way. But they also lost seven of nine during a stretch which triggered doubts that Solskjaer lacked the tactical expertise to maneuver a club with the high expectations of Manchester United. Ownership decided to make Solskjaer the permanent manager, yet with questions remaining about his tactical acumen and his ability to command the respect of the strong personalities in the locker room, it seemed like his termination was inevitable at some point. The team did improve in the 2020-21 season from the sixth place Solskjaer steered the team in half a season to a tie for third place and qualification in the Champions League. The Red Devils then claimed second place last year with eight more points than they accumulated the previous season. Under those conditions, it was hard to get rid of Solskjaer despite it still seeming he could not bring the franchise their first English Premier League title since 2012-13. When the team started slow this season, ownership finally relieved him of his duties on November 21st. They brought in Ralf Rangnick as the caretaker manager. The ironic aspect of the Solskjaer stewardship was that management was doing a good job of bringing in talent to compliment the exciting young players that were on the roster. The winter transfer period signing of Bruno Fernandes from Sporting Lisbon in 2020 turned out to be a brilliant move. He offered the team stability in the midfield that was not getting consistently from Paul Pogba, who was supposed to be the cornerstone of the franchise when he signed a budget-busting contract. With young scoring talents like Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, and Mason Greenwood, the Red Devils had legitimate attackers that could compete with Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. Even bringing Edinson Cavani from Paris Saint-Germain for 2020-21 offered the side a veteran attacker who could offer yet another scoring punch in the starting XI or off the bench. Man United entered the 2021 summer transfer window in desperate need of holding midfielders with vertical passing skills. Instead, this is when management went in a different direction to make a big splash by resigning Ronaldo. Perhaps the reunion with the international superstar and former player was a boon for public relations in the short term, but his addition to the roster disrupted the chemistry of the team. Ronaldo was no Cavani — if he was leaving Juventus to return to Manchester for the first time since the 2008-09 season, he was coming as the team’s talisman. But at 36-years-old, Ronaldo’s talents were on the decline — this is why he left Real Madrid for a Serie A side in Juventus three years prior. Bringing back a Prodigal Son is what a team does look to re-establish relevance. This Man United team was still on the ascent, albeit with perhaps the wrong manager. Ronaldo sucked all the air out of the room. And he replaced Fernandes as the leader on the pitch while taking over penalty kick responsibilities. His role as the number nine forward displaced the role Rashford, Martial, and Greenwood would often take. It was like the brother 15-years older than all his siblings coming back home to live at the parents' house and then expecting everything to return to the way it was when he left. Ronaldo has been about as good as expected. In 31 EPL matches, he has 17 goals. His three assists are light — and make a statement. But the productivity of his teammates — the ones that are still around — has diminished. Fernandes has scored nine goals and assisted on seven goals in the EPL after scoring 18 goals and assisting on 14 more in the English top-flight last season. Rashford is in a complete funk with only four goals and two assists after registering 11 goals and 11 assists last year and 17 goals with eight assists two years ago. Martial became disgruntled and transferred to Sevilla in January. Greenwood is unavailable after getting in trouble with the law. Cavani has played 10 minutes in the last 12 EPL matches after scoring 10 goals and added four assists in part-time work last season. And the team still lacks quality defensive midfielders. Change is afoot at Old Trafford in the offseason with the franchise finally making the big splash in leadership by hiring Erik ten Hag away from Ajax. It remains to be seen if retaining a 37-year-old Ronaldo will be in his long-term plans, but that seems unlikely. Pogba needs to go. The club needs to fix the Rashford decline and build around Jaden Sancho who they also brought in last year (a much better fit with the younger core talent if Ronaldo was not around). Fernandes should remain a solid investment. The Red Devils are desperate for world-class defensive midfielders. Things will not be easy. Manchester City and Liverpool are not just the best two teams in the EPL, they are the best two clubs in Europe. Chelsea is a step behind and has the challenge of acquiring new ownership — but they also won the Champions League last season so they are dynamite for a third-place club. Arsenal appears to be firmly in a promising rebuild. Tottenham remains solid. Man United was in a much better position a year ago at this time. Making a hard decision on Solksjaer earlier probably would have served the club better. In hindsight, the Ronaldo signing appears to be the actions of a uber-rich club still smelling the fumes from the Super League money-grab aspirations that went up in smoke. Best of luck — Frank.

The Limitations of Season-Long Analytics: A Look at North Carolina's Championship Game Run

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

Before the college basketball season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams that made significant advances during the season and into March. I had three reasons why the 2021-22 season would be unique in this regard.(1) The first full season of normality after the COVID-impacted 2020-21 campaign. The previous season was chaotic for all college basketball teams. Practice sessions were different with coaches and players navigating the rules of the road regarding what was safe and appropriate during a pandemic. Players were frequently unavailable to practice and/or play in games if they tested positive for COVID. These necessary disruptions impacted player and team development. While things were not back to pre-COVID levels of normalcy, the easing of COVID regulations provided coaches the opportunity to better develop individual skills and team cohesion. (2) The NCAA’s decision to grant everyone an extra year of eligibility would create some intriguing teams with veteran experience. The NCAA did not deem any collegiate player who competed during the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season to lose that year of college eligibility. This allowed many teams to bring back fifth-year seniors and even six-year “super seniors” who had already been granted an extra year of eligibility earlier in their collegiate careers. These teams who may lack the elite talent of the blue-chip programs could make up the divide with older groups with depth — and their experience may help them peak once March hit with single-elimination tournaments. Miami, Florida was a great example of this phenomenon as they were led by Kameron McCusty and Charlie Moore as super sixth-year seniors who led a starting five consisting of four seniors. Despite being a #10 seed, the Hurricanes reached the Elite Eight before losing to the eventual National Champion Kansas Jayhawks. (3) The opening up of the transfer portal is changing college basketball, irrespective of the after-effects of the pandemic. Most coaches say that the new transfer window rules have had the biggest impact on how college basketball operates. Good for the players (and boo-hoo for the well-paid head coaches whose jobs became more challenging). How transfers will fit into new rosters and systems is not something that is known in the early games in November. Coaches are building a team identity for March and the single-elimination tournaments at the end of the season. College basketball teams have always improved or regressed as the season goes on. Evaluating season-long team data and analytics should always be taken with a grain of salt. But, now more than ever, even the fantastic data provided by folks like Ken Pomeroy needed to be treated with additional scrutiny simply because it might include statistics that changed as qualitative adjustments were made to the individual teams in question. Frankly, I missed it on Miami (FL) this season. I did not appreciate how good they would be in the NCAA Tournament (and too quickly dismissed their results as a result of a favorable road to the Elite Eight). Fortunately, I finally figured out North Carolina — but it took their victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into the Final Four weekend in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Final Four). What made an impression on me was the team balance Davis had fostered. Davis’ decision to have R.J. Davis take over more of the ball-handling duties to let Caleb Love play more off the ball as a wing made a significant difference. Four different players led them in scoring in each of their first four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on in the Final Four showdown with Duke who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels could do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina saw at least one player nail at least three 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.0% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels were rolling — and I expected the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. North Carolina was our 25* College Basketball Game of the Year in the National Championship Game against Kansas. After taking a 38-22 lead late in the first half, the Tar Heels blew the lead in the second half but, fortunately, held on to cover the point spread getting +3.5 to +4 points in most spots. The oddsmakers and the market evaluated North Carolina for their season-long efforts — and the winning difference (by just a point!) was appreciating the improvements the Tar Heels made along the way that made a different and better team. A good lesson moving forward. Best of luck — Frank.

Gaming Out Some Game Theory Under the New NFL Overtime Rule

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

I have previously offered my proposal for a change to the NFL overtime rules: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeI have also written my thoughts about how the recent NFL change to the overtime rule may only kick the can regarding the problem they are attempting to solve: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/nfl-overtime-rule-change-kicking-the-can-or-game-theory-lollapoloozaIn that second article, I identified some interesting Game Theory circumstances that coaches will now have. These decisions do not solve the inherent structural problem from the advantage of winning the coin flip award, but it does offer some avenues for good or bad coaching decisions to determine the ending of the game. I see three questions that head coaches will now encounter.(1) We just won the flip — do we want the ball first or second?The answer to this one may initially seem pretty straightforward since years of the college football overtime system have provided many examples to analyze how this dynamic plays out. Most college football teams who win the right to choose the first option in overtime choose the second possession. The logic is that the offense that understands exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game has an advantage. What should an offense do if confronted with a fourth down? The team with the ball first may decide to simply kick the field goal. But this could be a mistake since their opponent now knows they can win the game with a touchdown — and change their play-calling to be more aggressive. On the other hand, if the team with the ball first attempts to go for it on fourth down — and fails — then their opponents seize a huge advantage since they can play conservatively and win the game with a short field goal. An important concept within Game Theory is this: it is disadvantageous to make the first critical (potentially game-defining) decision. Why is this? Putting yourself at unnecessary risk foregoes the opportunity for your opponent to offer you an advantage, free of charge (without taking a risk). Think of these scenarios as a game of chicken — the first one that blinks puts themselves at a disadvantage. This is the strategic foundation in chess to delay the deployment of the queen (with the Game Theory exceptions of this norm, notwithstanding). This is why college football teams choose the second possession in the overtime period. This is (one of the reasons) why it is more successful to avoid choosing big underdog upsets in the first round of your March Madness bracket (for every Saint Peter’s Hail Mary, there are far more misses — so let everyone else choose UAB while you retain the sizable haul from Houston). This is also a foundational reason that aggressive play in poker is advantageous when it forces your opponent to put all their chips at risk. Yet the “obvious” Game Theory decision within the new NFL overtime rules is not so obvious in practice. While the college system rotates who gets the ball first and last from round to round, the NFL system maintains the same order from round to round — but without a guarantee that that the team going last in round one will ever get the ball again (if their opponent scores first in that hypothetical round two). Opting for the ball last in the first round might doom that team to never getting a second chance at the football. This brings us to the second question.(2) If trailing by seven points in overtime, should you attempt a two-point conversion if you score a potential game-tying touchdown. If the team chooses (to attempt) to simply tie the game with an extra point, then all their opponent needs is a field goal to win the game. Is the team better off by simply trying to win the game with a two-point conversion now? The real question is simple: does the team have a higher chance of successfully converting the two-point conversion than they do in stopping their opponent from scoring a touchdown or field goal? In practice, determining the true answer is very hard. Game Theory suggests the more opportunity you offer your opponent to make a mistake, the more likely they will. But the margins are getting thinner. (3) Should the team getting the ball first in overtime attempt a two-point conversion after their touchdown with the knowledge that their opponent could hypothetically win the game with a two-point conversion if they counter with a touchdown?The real question posed to this team seems to be: are their odds of missing the two-point conversion lower than the risk assessment of (a) the probability that their opponent would choose to win the game with a two-point conversion rather than tie with an extra point (question (2), above; there is no risk of going for the two-point conversion if your opponent will always play for the tie) and (b) the probability of the success your opponent has in converting this two-point conversion. In poker, these risk assessments take place all the time in assessing pot odds regarding staying in a hand or folding. This is getting pretty complicated. Game Theory suggests that the more complicated the situation gets, the more likely someone will make a mistake. I don’t know how this will play out (besides knowing what Brandon Staley will choose in every instance). And the sample sizes are small. Even if the success rate of two-point conversions drops to 35% in overtime given the pressure of the moment, the depletion of a team’s best plays (that were already burned), and injuries impacting optimum effectiveness, teams that go for two will find some success. After playing these scenarios out, I still tend to defer to the assumption that the team that provokes their opponent to blink first will then be at an advantage. We have five months to game this out some more, maybe my thoughts will evolve?Best of luck — Frank.

NFL Overtime Rule Change -- Kicking the Can or Game Theory Lollapalooza?

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The NFL changed their overtime rules this week after the outcry from the AFC Divisional playoff run where Kansas City beat Buffalo by a 42-36 score. I wrote about my modest proposal to change the overtime rules at the time here: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeNot surprisingly, the league has voted to ensure each team gets one possession in overtime. Atlanta Falcons President Rich McKay inadvertently offered some comedy to the situation by citing that the decision was “data-driven” since the team who won the coin toss to begin overtime went on to win the game in 10 of the 12 playoff overtime games since the rule was initiated. That’s quite a sample size over a 13-year period since the New Orleans Saints were the first team to benefit from that rule change in the 2009 playoffs (Drew Brees versus Minnesota). Seven teams won the game in the first possession which seemed compelling to folks like McKay and NBC Sports’ journalist/pundit Peter King. If one less team would have clinched the game with an opening drive touchdown in the overtime over these 13 years, would the data no longer have supported the change? What exactly did the NFL, McKay, and King think was going to happen when the winner of the coin toss is given such a strong incentive to not bring out a kicker of any kind since a touchdown successfully ends the game for them?This reform does not solve the problem. It merely kicks the can. Peter King and the 24-hour Hot Take Industry will have plenty to still talk about with the next dozen NFL playoff games that go to overtime over the next dozen or so years. If Josh Allen would have countered the Chiefs' initial overtime touchdown with a Bills’ touchdown, then Kansas City gets the ball back with the opportunity to simply win the game via a field goal. The inequity stemming from the arbitrary coin flip emerges once again, albeit delayed. King can cite the statistics that the team that won the coin flip continues to be more likely to win in overtime. Surprise!As I mentioned in my previous thoughts on this matter, this change in the rule does create the opportunity for some interesting game theory. The team getting the ball second may choose to attempt to end the game right then and thereafter score their potential game-tying touchdown by attempting a 2-point conversion. Of course, if they fail, they lose the game. This possibility may convince the Brandon Staley’s of the world to attempt 2-point conversions if they score the first touchdown in overtime, which will be hilarious/infuriating depending on where one's money is invested. It will be like Lollapalooza for the NFL Analytics Twitter (once they decide where the Group Think answer is).This will add drama to the proceedings. The college football overtime format has drama — and the NFL has little interest in adopting their proposal. This reform by the NFL attempts to obscure the inherent problem that a coin flip gives one team a structural advantage. Layered within this change is the incentivizing for one or both teams bypassing the extra point for a two-point conversion. The first team to miss a two-point conversion probably loses. Sounds like the college system. My earlier proposal was to replace the coin flip with the awarding the structural advantage of getting to choose the first or last possession that generated the most total yards in the game (and add special teams yards!) with the choice of first or last possession. Some coaches may determine that getting the ball last becomes the more strategic option since that offense will know exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game. Peter King at least has to change his talking point to “the team that gained the most yardage during the game most often wins in overtime.” Rich McKay can continue to claim this is all “data-driven!”It will be interesting to see how this plays out in practice. One thing we probably can already conclude is that a dozen examples in a dozen years probably does not offer enough of a sample size to make responsible conclusions. But that will not stop us!Best of luck — Frank.

Finding Hidden Value: Wake Forest

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

Duke, Notre Dame, and North Carolina may receive most of the national attention in the ACC this season. But the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are a likely NCAA tournament team that can make a deep run in the ACC Tournament coming up in two weeks. Despite a 12-7 record in the ACC that has them in fifth place, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently projects them as a 10-seed in the Big Dance. Wake Forest was our selection for our College Basketball Game of the Month when they hosted Louisville on Saturday (February 26th) as a 9-point favorite. They looked primed for a big performance on Saturday hosting Louisville despite losing three of their previous four games. They got upset by an 80-69 score at Clemson as a 4-point favorite in their previous game on Wednesday. But the Demon Deacons allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. Wake Forest only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. A better effort against the Cardinals was likely when considering that they had covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons ranked second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they were second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They returned home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons were nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which was generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranked 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals ranked second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons had also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. They looked to be in a good position to secure an impressive victory. Wake Forest rewarded our faith in them back at home to make a statement as they crushed Louisville by a 99-77 score. The Demon Deacons did allow the Cardinals to make 51% of their shots but they did hold Louisville to just a 3 of 18 (17%) clip from behind the arc. But Wake Forest made 13 of their 27 (48%) shots from 3-point range to help fuel a 58% field goal percentage in the rout. The Demon Deacons also got to the free-throw line 27 times where they converted in 22 of their shots. Wake Forest only turned the ball over 10 times which helped them find their shooting rhythm on offense.All five of the Demon Deacons starters scored in double-digits. Head coach Steve Forbes’ team can put up points with any of the other teams in the ACC. They may get in trouble in the ACC Tournament against teams that are adept at forcing turnovers. Miami (FL), Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State all force at least 19.1% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. But Duke, Notre Dame, and North Carolina all do not force more than 14.6% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. Best of luck — Frank.

Finding Hidden Value: Maryland-Eastern Shore

Monday, Feb 21, 2022

Don’t sleep on the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament coming up in about two weeks. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that was still just 3-7 in conference play going into their game at North Carolina-Central on Monday (February 21st) — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. In concluding that Maryland-Eastern Shore playing as an underdog at North Carolina-Central in their February 21st contest would be my 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year, I was intrigued by how vulnerable the Eagles are very vulnerable in the turnover department. They ranked 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions going into that game. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore had covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while it was their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss.We were rewarded with a 79-66 victory by Maryland-Eastern Shore at North Carolina-Central where much of the handicapping was vindicated. Although the Hawks went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 43-31 score, they outscored the Eagles by a 48-23 margin to pull the upset and easily cover the +6.5 point spread. Once again, the Maryland-Eastern Shore pressure played a big role as they forced 22 turnovers representing 31.0% of the Eagles’ possessions. The Hawks did not create many more scoring opportunities from second-chances as they only pulled down five boards on the offensive glass. Then again, it is harder to pull down offensive boards when you make 52.8% of your shots. The x-factor for Maryland-Eastern Shore was their 3-point shooting as they nailed 14 of their 24 shots (58.3%) of their shots from distance. That 36% clip from behind the arc on the road in conference play pointed to a possible hot-shooting like this. And it overcame North Carolina-Central once again shooting well from 3-point land against the Hawks once again as they made 7 of their 18 shots (38.9%) of their 3-pointers.This was a nice win for us since it embodied so many of the elements of what we are looking for during March Madness. Teams that create more scoring opportunities rather it be from forcing turnovers or from pulling down offensive rebounds (or both) provide a Plan B if their shots are not falling. And teams that shoot the 3-ball well can always steal games by shooting great from distance. Moving forward, Maryland-Eastern Shore is a team to keep an eye for some point spread value in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament. Best of luck — Frank.

Fixing NFL Overtime

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Like clockwork, if a team wins by the opening touchdown in the overtime period in the NFL playoffs, calls will begin to change the procedures enacted to resolve these games that remain tied after regulation time. Critics (often holding losing bet tickets) will cry about the injustice of the system and the arbitrariness of the game decided by a coin flip. We do not bat an eyebrow watchman tired referees hurriedly deploy eye-ball tests when they guestimate where the ball was downed before Big Tech purifies the process with close-up camera angles. But, sure, let’s start complaining about the overtime system impacting the integrity of the game only when the process finally literally embraces literal coin flips to impact the outcome rather than just the de-facto coin-flip external actions that litter the game before that point. The overtime in the NFL playoffs used to be resolved with a full 15-minute extra period. This approach was abandoned because games would take too long. Player health and safety get invoked as a rationale, but if you are buying that, I have some oceanside property here in Las Vegas I can offer you at a really good deal. The essential problem remains how to develop a mechanism to resolve tied games that is fair to both teams but accomplishes this goal quickly. The college system has teams alternate possessions starting at the 25-yard line. But because those games were taking too long still to determine a winner, a system was implemented that had the teams embark on rotation two-point conversion attempts after the first two rounds at the 25-yard line. For many observers (including myself), that feels too much like the skills competition attempts to resolve games in the regular season of the NHL. Embracing a longer overtime session like the NHL does in the Stanley Cup playoffs would likely put the winner at a competitive disadvantage in their next game against an opponent who did not play in as long a game. Most new proposals to the overtime rules simply kick the can on the inevitable problem inherent in the advantage of winning the coin flip for overtime. The rules can be changed to allow for both teams to touch the ball once — then anything goes — but the team that got the ball first and scored a touchdown still has the edge of getting the ball first after the back-and-forth. If one is committed to eliminating a full period of additional play, then the dilemma of infinite regression regarding the fairness of “who gets the ball first” is inevitable. However, there may be a way out of this conundrum. Here is the Hollywood Sports’ proposal. First, ditch the overtime coin flip and award the team with the most yards from scrimmage with choice of ball/field direction. Better yet, include special teams' return yards to the mix on top of offensive yards from scrimmage so that all three phases of the game impact this tie-breaker determinant. The second tie-breaker can be fewer offensive plays (higher yards-per-play). This addresses the concern about the randomness of the coin-flip with the first option choice being rewarded based on a skills-based objective. Second, then let both teams get one offensive possession. While the "both teams get the ball once" overtime reform seems to just kick the can on the "but the other QB never gets the chance to respond" dilemma, perhaps the game-theory intangibles with the 2-point option neutralizes this concern in practice.Hypothetically, let’s look at the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City overtime classic that ended when Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a winning touchdown on the opening overtime drive after Kansas City won the arbitrary coin flip. Let’s then assume Josh Allen leads the Bills to a touchdown on their possession.Do the Bills then go for 2 to win the game, right then and there? Knowing that possibility, does Kansas City go for 2 after their initial Travis Kelce TD to pre-empt this Buffalo counter? More game-defining plays of makes/misses might nullify the concern of overtime taking too long. This scenario makes the strategic choice to defer getting the ball first (as is the conventional wisdom in college football) since there is heightened value in knowing what you need to win the game. If this game-theory stratagem with the removal of the arbitrary coin-flip for a determinant that is results-based, then I think we are getting somewhere to improve an, albeit, inherently flawed process. In an ideal world, the NFL playoffs would be able to transcend the physical limitations of their human being players and embrace the overtime process of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs before hitting a magic reset button for the winning team to be fully rested for their next game. But, alas …Best of luck — Frank.

On Heartbreak, and Appreciating Josh Allen

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Even in defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs, I was very much impressed with Josh Allen, who has convinced me to ignore the Bills' 0-6 record in one-possession games (after that loss) moving forward next season. I know the Buffalo Bills and their Bills’ Mafia fans thought this was the year for their team after losing in Kansas City last year by a 38-24 score. But there is a difference between disappointment and universe-shattering heartbreak. The Bad Boy Detroit Pistons thought they learned how to win after hardships but they had to discover what true heartbreak felt like in 1987 when Isiah Thomas inbounded the ball back to Larry Bird in the Eastern Conference Finals to spoil what would have likely been a decisive road win in the Garden. Thomas and the Pistons responded by winning titles in '89 and '90 after losing the NBA Finals in Game 7 in '88In appreciating of Allen, I quote the Buffalo Bills' section of Football Outsiders 2018 almanac as an illustration of what "the smartest guys in the analytics room" had spectacularly wrong back then: “(Brandon) Beane wouldn’t get into how his quarterback board looked in a post-draft press conference — a glaring tell that Allen wasn’t the No. 1 player at the position for him—but offered the boilerplate “he can make all the throws” nonsense that you’d have to believe to invest this pick in a player like Allen … The problem is that Allen isn’t even an accurate deep arm right now. He can throw a deep ball like Grandma can quit smoking any time she wants to … This is the blind leading the blind … It’s a shame that this offensive blueprint is so irresponsible because it’s erasing the good work that the Bills have done on defense and special teams … The Bills spent the middle of the summer filing a patent for the phrase “Respect the Process.” But they are asking us to respect their process when it’s conclusively not a good process … This process is just following conventional quarterback scouting wisdom and building to win in the 1980s … Ironically, snarky look-at-me rhetoric and potshots at establishment folks like Simms goes a long way in the world of "just trust the data." That’s some good stuff from an “expert” who remains a regular at the football analytics him whose data ranked the Dallas Cowboys as the top team in the NFL entering this postseason (before losing unceremoniously at home to San Francisco).The issue is not getting a few things wrong (we all do). But it was always an option to have reserved skepticism about Allen coming out of Wyoming. Wait for the data to develop. Nope, the above was another drop in the overreach of the Hot Take Industrial Complex. And I am a long-time customer who likes many of the regular contributors at Football Outsiders when I conduct my foundational work in July and August for all 32 NFL teams. But some of the writers advance some terrible arguments worthy of fading (and FO remains worse than a drunk monkey in the prediction game).So, congratulations to Allen (and the Bills) despite their brutal loss to the Chiefs this season. And those in the analytics community might boost their credibility if they just owned up to their sensational failures, rather than punching up versus dudes like Phil Simms with devastatingly more accomplishments.Best of luck — Frank.

A Failure to Establish the Run Dooms Michigan against Georgia

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Georgia entered the SEC Championship having not allowed more than the 378 yards that Tennessee put up against them in a 41-17 loss to the Bulldogs. But Alabama generated 536 yards of offense against Georgia en route to winning the SEC Championship by a 41-24 score. The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack in that game — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I did not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy in the College Football Semifinals. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan had thrown the ball more than 38 times just twice before that game. They wanted to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines like to deploy inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 34-7 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. Sure enough, Michigan only gained 84 yards on the ground in 27 carries in their 34-11 loss to the Bulldogs in the College Football Semifinals on Friday. Take away the non-sack yards and the Wolverines had 20 rushing attempts for 85 yards for a 4.25 Yards-Per-Carry average that looked like what Alabama was able to produce against them. But the difference was in the passing game. McNamara and freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy combined to complete only 18 of their 36 passes for 237 yards with one touchdown and two costly interceptions from McNamara. Michigan was not able to come close to repeating what Young and the Alabama passing attack was able to accomplish four weeks before this game. Michigan offense has slowed down significantly all season if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team. And against Georgia, they were sitting on a mere three points until McCarthy engineered a late drive to put a touchdown on the board. Now Georgia gets their opportunity to avenge their loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Did Alabama’s uniquely powerful passing attack expose a weakness in the Bulldogs that only they can exploit? Or did Kirby Smart and his coaching staff use that game to plug up the potential holes that existed in what has been an otherwise historically dominant defense?We will find out on January 10th — but I have some strong feelings on the subject. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Seven NFL Teams Running the Ball More - and Winning

Monday, Dec 06, 2021

Beating the point spread in the NFL requires staying vigilant in staying aware of the evolving strategies and tactics teams are using to find success. While Pro Football Focus produced another article espousing the virtues of abandoning the run (this latest version made the argument that pass blocking is easier than run blocking — a claim I have heard many NFL offensive line coaches disagree with for what that is worth), I was paying attention to seven teams riding recent good runs that appear to be linked to their renewed commitment to running the football.(1) New England. The Patriots are on a six-game winning streak heading into Monday Night Football in Buffalo against the Bills. New England has averaged 144 rushing yards per game during this streak with nine rushing touchdowns. The emergence of rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson to compliment Damien Harris has played a big role The football analytics community tends to dismiss the importance of the Time of Possession battle. The Patriots have averaged being on offense for almost 33 minutes per game during this stretch, but what does Bill Belichick know? The coaches that value Time of Possession argue that keeping their defense off the field keeps those players fresh. New England has allowed more than 13 points only once during their winning streak.(2) Indianapolis. The Colts went into Week 13 having won five of their last seven games. They have averaged 166 rushing yards per game with 14 touchdown passes in that stretch. They averaged more than 31 minutes per game on offense. Indianapolis traveled to Houston yesterday where they ran the ball 48 times for 238 yards. They were on offense for 41:35 minutes of the game. In shutting out the Texans in their 31-0 victory, they only allowed 141 total yards. (3) Cincinnati. The Bengals had averaged 178 rushing yards during a two-game winning streak going into their showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers. They rushed for five touchdowns in those two wins against Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. They averaged a time of possession of 36:20 minutes in those games with Joe Mixon running the ball 58 times. Falling behind 24-0 to the Chargers got Cincinnati away from this formula for success. They ran the ball only 25 times for 96 yards in a 41-22 loss to Los Angeles.(4) Baltimore. The Ravens had been on a two-game winning streak traveling to Pittsburgh last week. They averaged 136 rushing Yards-Per-Game in those games while being on offense for 38 minutes per game in those two contests. They allowed only 23 combined points in those two victories. In their 20-19 loss to the Steelers, they ran the ball 25 times for 107 yards. They did hold Pittsburgh to just 321 yards while being on offense for 36:30 minutes. Who knows what happens if Baltimore chooses to kick the extra point to force overtime after scoring the tying touchdown with just 12 seconds left in the game. Keeping the Steelers off the field was crucial to keep the game close since Pittsburgh was averaging 5.73 Yards-Per-Play. (5) San Francisco. The 49ers were on a three-game winning streak going into their game with the Seahawks. They averaged 178 rushing yards per game in those three games with five rushing touchdowns. The Niners averaged 41.7 rushing attempts per game during this span with their offense on the field for over 38 minutes per game. But in their 30-23 loss to Seattle yesterday, San Francisco only ran the ball 25 times for 71 yards. The 49ers’ offense was on the field for just 26:48 minutes. (6) Washington. The Football Team traveled to Las Vegas to play the Raiders on a three-game winning streak. They averaged 145 rushing yards per game with three rushing touchdowns in those games. Their average Time of Possession in those three games was 38:49 minutes. In their 17-15 victory against Las Vegas, they ran the ball 30 times for 112 yards. Their Time of Possession was 33:43 minutes. In their four-game winning streak with this dedication to running the football, they have held those four opponents to 17.5 Points-Per-Game. (7) Philadelphia. The Eagles went into Week 13 having won three of their last five games. They were averaging 236 rushing Yards-Per-Game with 10 rushing touchdowns in those games. In their 33-18 victory in New York against the Jets yesterday, Philly ran the ball 41 times for 185 yards which helped them stay on the field for 35:36 minutes. The Eagles have now held four of their last six opponents to 18 points or less. In other news, the NFL analytics sites tend to not fare very well when picking point spread winners. I think there models are fundamentally flawed because they treat Yards-Per-Play like Points-Per-Possession in basketball. The fundamental difference in evaluating those efficiency statistics is the opportunity football teams have in getting a reset of downs from achieving a first down. A lower Yards-Per-Play average is not as significant if the offense is still getting first downs — and that approach has the additional benefit of keeping their defense off the field (and, presumably, fresher). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Buffalo Bills' November Paradigm Shift on Offense

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score to begin the month of November, the Bills made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Breida in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. Breida ran the ball only three times but it was the first time he got touched the football since September 12th. His 28 yards on those three carries earned him more playing time.The game script the following week kept the Bills from continuing their ambition to run the football more. They fell behind Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter before going into halftime trailing by a 24-7 score. Perhaps an early score to pull within 10 points could have allowed head coach Sean McDermott to get back to running the football to open up the ancillary benefits to that tactic. But the Colts scored 14 points in the third quarter to take an insurmountable lead that could only be overcome by scoring quickly in the passing game. In the end, the Bills ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Breida’s contributions were encouraging moving forward as he gained 51 rushing yards on five carries.Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. I expected this formula for success to be what McDermott strived for in their bounce-back game in New Orleans against the Saints. Sure enough, the Bills ran the ball 32 times for 113 yards in a 31-6 victory against the Saints. Allen was only asked to throw the ball 28 times. He completed 23 of these passes. Breida ran the ball nine times for 26 yards. Interestingly, McDermott opted to have Zack Moss placed as a healthy scratch in that game leaving the primary rushing duties to Breida and David Montgomery. Buffalo held New Orleans to only 190 yards. The Jets gained 366 yards in the first game after McDermott had Daboll redesign the offense, but much of that was in garbage time. The Colts game got away from the Bills early, but expect McDermott to continue having Allen play under center with a renewed commitment to relying on their running backs as their primary ball carriers. Asking Allen to do less may be the most beneficial aspect of this change of tactics. Allen has rushed the ball 69 times for 382 yards this season. He only had two rushing attempts in the games against the Jets and Colts respectively before running the ball ten times in New Orleans. But running backs (or wide receivers in specialty plays) ran the ball 20 and 24 times in those games. McDermott will still want Allen to take advantage of his legs -- especially when the team needs a big play. But expect the running backs to take a higher load of the rushing attempts moving forward.Best of luck — Frank.

Joussiance and the Stagnation of Sean McVay

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

Jouissance is defined as a physical or intellectual delight, pleasure, or ecstasy. I first stumbled upon the concept in film school when the discussion of the dream state that the viewing experience inside a movie theater ventured into the work of French psychoanalyst Jacques Lacan. For Lacan, his use of the term had a sublimated sexual component in its expression in a subject. Lacan who I began to think about when watching Sean McVay embark on his 50-yard dash to celebrate Matthew Stafford’s successful long pass to DeSean Jackson during their prime-time victory against Tampa Bay earlier in the season. The dopamine was definitely triggering with the successful execution of that play. Big plays will do that. But I still found McVay’s (over)reaction surprising. We don’t see Andy Reid break out into a full sprint whenever Patrick Mahomes connects a deep ball with Tyreek Hill. Perhaps McVay was trying to offer support for a disgruntled Jackson unhappy in not being involved enough in the offense. If so, McVay’s player-management skills failed to please Jackson who asked for his release soon after. Los Angeles may be tied with the Dallas Cowboys to lead the NFL in Yards-Per-Play — but their only victory against a team with a winning record was that triumph against Buccaneers. After their 36-28 loss at Green Bay as a small favorite on Sunday (our NFL Game of the Month, by the way), the Rams have lost three games in a row. I argued in my defense of taking the Packers that I thought “offensive genius” Sean McVay has become too enamored with the dopamine hit he receives when Matthew Stafford connects on a long pass. In general, I think McVay is a fine young coach. I cringe when the “offensive genius” moniker seems to be a mandatory modifier to his name. I find the hiring trends involving anyone who once sat at the lunch table with him to be desperate. And I appreciate McVay when he admitted he prepared his team incorrectly in the Super Bowl loss to New England when his offense managed only three points. But I was very disappointed to see McVay throw Jared Goff under the bus after the blockbuster trade with Detroit to acquire Stafford. McVay never mentioned Goff by name. However, when a teenage boy breaks up with his girlfriend to start dating something new and then raves about how good a dancer she is and how nice her breath smells, the implication is obvious: the previous GF had no moves and pretty much stunk.In his jouissance of no longer having to manage the play of Goff, McVay has abandoned the play-action rushing attack that made the offense so effective in propelling the Rams’ Super Bowl run. The Rams only rushed for 68 yards against Green Bay after managing only 52 rushing yards against the 49ers in their upset loss to San Francisco two weeks ago. I worry that McVay has overrated the talents of Stafford. I like Stafford and I think he has incredible natural ability. His decision-making was sometimes questionable with Detroit — and he certainly lacks big-time playoff experience even going back to his days with Georgia. I think he got lulled into forcing the football to Calvin Johnson when those two stars were paired together — and I think he matured as a quarterback and as a leader after Johnson’s premature retirement. The addition of Odell Beckham worries me because it may play into McVay’s dopamine addiction for the long-ball and because Stafford may succumb to the pressure to get him the football rather than taking what the defense offers him. Maybe the Rams are the franchise where Beckham will stop being failed by everyone around him? Or maybe, just maybe, Beckham is part of the problem? Granted, they need Beckham now after the season-ending injury to Robert Woods. The Rams have lost three straight games despite being favored in all three games (the losing streak started with their loss to Tennessee on Sunday Night Football). Stafford five interceptions in those three games after throwing only four interceptions in his first eight starts with his new team. Even more concerning, Stafford has thrown a pick-six in each of these three games. He has also been sacked nine times in these three games. That is a problem that I think speaks more to play-calling than it does the quality of the offensive line or Stafford’s elusiveness in the pocket. McVay seems to have discovered the lost tapes from the Mike Martz offense. Jay Cutler got sacked a lot in that offense waiting for receivers to run 40 yards downfield. McVay’s effusive early praise of Stafford comes across as if his “brilliance” can finally be unleashed by running a Martz-inspired attack. I would like to see Stafford operate the play-action offense that Goff operated under. I do think Stafford was an upgrade to Goff but he needs a coach, not a cheerleader.Maybe Goff’s lack of preparation at times last season warranted McVay’s frustration with him. Perhaps the divorce was in the best interest of both parties? But McVay and the Rams were coming off a bye week on Sunday in their showdown against the Packers — and they got owned. The “offensive genius” seems stagnant. There are other quarterbacks and offensive head coaches who would face holy hell after three straight games with pick-sixes in what were all upset losses.Perhaps the offensive genius should take another lesson from Bill Belichick who has demonstrated from Tom Brady to now Mac Jones: be happy with what the defense offers (and the receiver will break out with a nice yards-after-catch one out of three times!). Interestingly, being enamored with the long ball was a challenge Patrick Mahomes faced earlier in the season. Or perhaps McVay should bypass his mid-game dopamine hits to instead take the advice from Joe Burrow who made these comments after Cincinnati’s blowout win against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Burrow commented on his renewed focus: “Just take care of the ball better. Eliminate some turnovers. We kind of fell in love with the big play, speaking of myself. The last two games, I’ve really just taken what the defenses have given me and stat lines aren’t dotty or impressive but it’s getting the job done. That’s all I care about is W’s, and whatever it takes to get the job done.”Best of luck — Frank.

25:16 - The Most Important Number to Understanding Seattle after Russell Wilson's Injury

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

When Russell Wilson suffered a finger injury in early October that would keep him out one to two months, many observers considered it the last straw for the Seahawks this season. While I expected the Seattle offense to be less explosive, I wrote at the time that the circumstances presented them an opportunity to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. I thought the key consideration was this: the Seahawks’ offense was on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game in the first five games Wilson started. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game was simply wearing them out. The “Let Russ Cook” mantra can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. I expected the Seahawks to run the ball more behind running back Alex Collins and slow the game down to help their beleaguered defense.The formula almost worked in a 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh. Seattle held the Steelers to just 335 yards. If not for a Geno Smith fumble from a vicious hit from T.J. Watt in overtime, then perhaps the Seahawks find a way to win that game. Seattle was then competitive the next week in a 13-10 loss at home to the New Orleans Saints (a team that then beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers the next week). The Seahawks held the Saints to just 304 yards. If not for two missed field goals by Jason Myers, Seattle might have won that game as well.Yet the usual suspect critics remained dismayed that the Seahawks did not blow out both teams even with Geno Smith under center. There is never a failing that would have simply been fixed by throwing the football more — the laziest of all the lazy Monday Morning Quarterbacking. If only there was a period in the Monday Night Football game when offensive coordinator Pete Carroll finally let Geno cook (there was: the disastrous final drive). “The Analytics are clear that getting to 3rd-and-1 is bad!” “Even worse is having the ball with the chance to win the game in the final possession!” I paraphrase what I read from blue check football expert on the twitter machine.As if the Analytics are quite clear in that (a) passing the football has no relationship to QB injuries (“mere coincidence”) and (b) the numbers do not reveal who the backup to Geno Smith is (Jacob Eason). “Let Jacob Cook, because interceptions are statistical anomalies!” I mock, therefore I am. The Pete Carroll Derangement Syndrome suffered by so many NFL media (who freelance as Seahawks fans) is a tell. Nine straight winning seasons lead the NFL right now, despite Seattle being run by that “idiot”! "That just shows you how good Saint Russell Wilson is!"More mocking: “Everyone knows that if only (fill in the blank for the latest hotshot OC, a former Matt Nagy type) was running Seattle offense on Monday, the Hawks upset the Saints by double-digits (after upsetting the Steelers on the road the week before), rather than just covering both times.”It's not that Carroll should be immune to criticism (issue #1: his failures on the offensive line). It is that (a) what he has accomplished in Seattle is objectively pretty, pretty, pretty good, yet (b) because it is a defensive philosophy that values running the football and an ancient concept called Time of Possession, the geniuses are miles away from simply engaging his (up to now) successful argument. By the way, the market said getting to coin flips with Geno was a win! It certainly was for those of us with Seattle tickets.What if the Seahawks without Carroll simply devolve into the Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford? Detroit was passing the ball over 60% of the time during that span -- a nice opportunity to test Let Matthew Cook aspirations of the critics. (I know, Detroit was still messing up 40%, unless it is the last play of the Super Bowl …).In cashing Seattle tickets the last two weeks, one of my arguments was that the removal of the pressure to Let Russ Cook would mean more rushing attempts and more Time of Possession. They added 2+ minutes of TOP in both games (but were still underwater with their defense on the field more than their offense). Still, Seattle played two of their best three defensive games of the season in the last two weeks. Their defense had been averaging 35:47 minutes per game on the field under Let Russ Cook (before the Steelers game). I know, Irrelevant!In Smith’s third start, Seattle dominated Jacksonville by a 31-7 score on Halloween. The defense held the Jaguars to 309 total yards. The defense was on the field more than the offense yet once again, but the 28:31 minutes were a day in the park compared to what they had been averaging in the Let Russ Cook days earlier this season. It bears repeating that many defensive coaches believe their players only have so many plays in them in a game before they fatigue and their effectiveness begins to significantly wane. Smith completed 20 of the 24 passes he attempted. Seattle ran the ball 25 times giving an almost 50-50 balance of rushing and passing. When Wilson returns to the field, many observers will notice the improved play of the defense he will be inheriting. Will they spot the connection?Best of luck — Frank.

Gerrit Cole's Second Half Slide

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The New York Yankees were counting on Gerrit Cole to be their ace in the American League Wildcard Playoff game against their arch-rivals in the Boston Red Sox. But I was worried about the second-half decline of the star right-handed starting pitcher. He was looking to rebound from a subpar effort where he allows five runs in six innings at Toronto in his final regular-season start. For the regular season, the right-hander had a 16-8 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP — but he had been saddled with a 5.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts. That continues a disturbing trend for the Yankees’ ace who, after a great start to the season, has a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 since the All-Star Break. Were his 181 1/3 innings this season after a pandemic-shortened campaign last year produced fatigue late in the season? Were the after-effects from his bout with COVID impacting his performances? Did his recent hamstring injury hold him back? Perhaps the league’s crackdown on foreign substances has thrown off his elite stuff despite his spin rates creeping back up to his early-season levels? I don’t know, but I was skeptical that he could simply flip the switch in the playoffs after posting a 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts despite the Yankees playing for their playoff lives the last few weeks.Cole only recorded outs with six of the twelve batters he faced in what was a 6-2 loss to the Red Sox that ended their season. He gave up four hits and walked two batters in his two innings of work. He gave up two gopher balls. The home run he threw to Xander Bogaerts was just the third home run he had even allowed to a right-handed batter on change up — and for the first time in four years. Cole did not make any excuses after the setback in taking responsibility for the disappointing outing. If he did have lingering issues from COVID and/or his hamstring, he should be good to go for spring training. But the crackdown on foreign substances is worthy of continued scrutiny. When comparing the 150 four-seam fastballs he through before June 3rd with the 300 he through after that date, he experienced the 16th largest drop in spin rate of all major league pitchers last season. While Cole was still a very good starting pitcher, the loss of that final edge may preclude from the elite status he enjoyed in the previous two seasons — the very reason the Yankees signed him to a long-term contract.Best of luck — Frank.

The Cincinnati Bengals Laying More than a Touchdown? A Brave New World!

Friday, Oct 01, 2021

Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. That is what I told clients on the last day in September with the Thursday Night game to begin Week Four in our play on the Jacksonville. Admittedly, anyone betting this game was forced to invest in a bad team since the Jaguars were playing the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals’ faithful saw their team in a situation that they have not enjoyed in many years. With the Bengals laying 7.5-points in most spots, it was just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals that his team was the point spread favorite — and it was the first time that Cincinnati was every laying more than a field goal in Taylor’s tenure. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this was a different Jacksonville team who went into halftime with a 14-0 lead before losing by a 24-21 score. Meyer’s decision to forego kicking a field goal at the end of the first half may have won him fans from the football analytics community live-tweeting during the game, but Jacksonville could have sure used three more points at the end of that game. Frankly, the Bengals were primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals were able to pull off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary for once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. Who knows what the future will hold this season regarding how I feel about this Bengals team. Bettors and handicappers make a mistake to get stuck in preconceived notions. Some teams improve, while other teams falter. However, I do not see myself backing Zac Taylor’s team too often if they find themselves laying more than a touchdown again this season. I don’t think I have the courage quite yet for that Brave New World.Best of luck — Frank.

Joe Judge on Analytics (and the Self-Own of his Critics)

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

New York Giants head coach Joe Judge got in trouble with the self-professed smartest guys online when he failed to demonstrate proper deference to the Analytics God. Here were Judge’s comments in a press conference earlier this week. "Analytics is just a tool. It’s nice to look at the numbers and how they go through the flow of the game, but the analytics change based on the opponent, based on who you have available for the game, and how the flow of the game is going, too. You can look at a stat sheet all ya want. I promise ya if Excel was gonna win football games, Bill Gates would be killing it right now. But you've got to take those numbers as a tool and go ahead and factor in how your team's playing at the time and how the opponent is as well. You’ve got to measure your strengths and weaknesses against the opponent every time and then also in terms of the flow of the game.”Judge’s tone and suggestion that analytics can be expressed by a simple Excel one-sheet have been ridiculed by many who profess to be devotees to football analytics, whatever that means (more on that below). Football statistics and metrics are attractive for a variety of reasons. One of the appeals for those who like to invoke “The Numbers” is that it offers the allure of a superior intelligence without having to do the work of province a warrant to defend the claim. And when capital-A “Analytics” is used as the cover, then the individual gets hide find the protection of the mob. “Joe Judge doesn’t believe in analytics, what an idiot” is the perfect sentiment for those whose deepest thoughts come in 280 characters or less. As an aside, those familiar with my work know that I value analytics. It was the addition of basketball analytics into my handicapping toolbox that helped conclude the 2010 NCAA Tournament on a 20-4 ATS run after the first day of the Big Dance. Sabermetrics has been a foundational aspect of my handicapping of MLB regarding the respective starting pitchers since Day One in the field. Expected goals (xG) play a critical role in my handicapping of soccer and the NHL. Analytics plays a role in my football handicapping, but I consider much of that work so fundamentally flawed that I take many of their predictive numbers with a large grain of salt. I am not anti-analytics. I am anti-lazy thinking (and making claims without warrants). Interestingly, the criticism of Judge’s comments exposes some assumptions many (not all) in the football analytics community make that would probably not withstand scrutiny if put under a microscope. Many football analytics adherents seem to advocate that there is a One Truth exposed by analytics as The Way. “The numbers say go for it on fourth-and-one.” Well, where did those numbers come from? League-wide data? What years? Does it include the pandemic season without fans in the stands? How big is the sample size? How big should the sample size be? Does that league-wide data treat Derrick Henry’s fourth-and-one numbers as equally relevant to those numbers for, say, Theo Riddick? Is Judge wrong when he argues that “the analytics change based on the opponent, based on who you have available for the game and how the flow of the game is going, too”? Do the football analytics folks really want to suggest that there is no statistical difference between Saquon Barkley rushing the football on 4th-and-one versus Gary Brightwell, their sixth-round pick from Arizona? Is there no statistical difference between attempting a fourth-and-down rushing play against the Tampa Bay run defense as opposed to the Detroit run defense? Another assumption many in the analytics community makes is that every statistical moment is the same. Many in the analytics basketball community presume this when defending the use of shooting tons of 3-pointers. They are later surprised when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight 3-pointers in Game Seven of the 2018 NBA Western Conference Finals. Too many in the quantitative field rigidly support the belief that those 27 misses could have just as easily happened on a Tuesday night in February of the regular season. To suggest otherwise is to expose a fundamental problem with their project: that the numbers may not apply as nicely to the situation at hand. For those interested in nuance and perspective, this revelation is not threatening. For those who have a vested interest — financial or otherwise — this proposition is an existential threat. It is not a radical idea to offer that basketball teams not good at shooting 3-pointers should shoot less of them (in place of higher percentage shots for their team’s skillsets). This is probably true even after confronting the fact that 3-point baskets offer 50% more value than 2-point baskets. Is it a radical idea by Judge that perhaps the percentages for his team on 4th-and-one may not be as prolific as that of the Kansas City Chiefs?And is it a radical idea that going for it on fourth-and-one (to continue using this one example since it most often gets deployed by the football analytics folks as if there is capital-t Truth answer to this question that can fit on an Excel sheet) that the answer may change based on field position, game score, and how much time is left in the game?The other major sports are getting better at appreciating that rather than establishing an Analytics Department to expose the Truth, instead the use of numbers and statistics is fluid that can be exploited for a strategic advantage. All numbers are not created equal because all formulas are not created equal. Some analytics are simply more illuminating. While yards per game offer some value, yards-per-play may offer a more insightful perspective. Just like the NFL has 32 unique scouting departments that make different evaluations, the league will eventually have 32 unique analytics departments that have differing views — and this is before head coaches then interpret that data based on his available personnel, the score of the game, and the moment in the game. Just using the analytics umbrella does not provide invincibility against potential critique. The audience is not privy to the NextGen formulas used to develop their stats ESPN hawks (in partnership) regarding what a coach should do in a certain situation. The broadcast is not a math class, but it is theater. It’s a smaller narrative within the bigger story. Many statistical models in football do not put any value on first downs and time of possession. Do they do this because they disagree with many football coaches who find both those aspects of the game critical? Or, do they do it because it is more convenient to ignore those facets of the game? Using Yards-Per-Play as the base unit of efficiency is easier than the messy work of determining how to value the reset of downs offered by generating 10 yards in four plays. There are many differences between Joe Judge and his critics, but one I would like to close with is this: it is only Judge that risks losing his job if gets a football decision wrong. His critics risk nothing. Many of his critics have a vested financial interest in presenting their criticism since that it is the foundation of their business model. When contemplating going for it on fourth-and-one (to torture this one example), I suspect there would be a quick about-face in opinion if the critic were to lose their job if they got the decision wrong. In fact, I suspect all it would take for many of his critics to demonstrate caution and nuance would be the mere threat of being blocked or unliked if their opinion from the cheap seats turned out to be correct. Best of luck — Frank.

Handicapping the 2021 NFLx Preseason: Autopsy Report

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

We concluded a 7-4 mark in the NFLx preseason by winning out 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year on Sunday with the Cleveland Browns minus the points against Atlanta. NFL preseason football is beatable — but it requires using a different set of methods than handicapping the NFL in the regular season. We will begin the 2022 NFLx preseason on a 16 of 22 (73%) NFLx run and a longer-running 46 of 74 (62%) NFLx preseason mark. We won six of our seven highest-rated 25* NFLx preseason plays this year, furthering a 13 of 14 (93%) NFLx 25* preseason run going back to 2019 and a longer running 26 of 34 (76%) preseason mark with 25* plays. Being a little choosier while being patient has helped to make decisions as to when to invest in a preseason situation. Handicapping the preseason in the NFL (successfully) is not the same as it was five years ago. Back then, deciphering edges against the point spread mostly involved the qualitative assessment and comparison of both team’s rosters — especially at quarterback. Getting a book on the philosophy each head coach had regarding how they used preseason games has always been important as well — but Sean McVay’s commitment to not play any starters in the preseason established a school of thought that many of his peers have adopted. After no preseason last year because of the pandemic and the league’s shift to just three preseason games, a new dynamic has taken hold this year. It had been conventional wisdom for most head coaches to use the third preseason game as the dress rehearsal game where he has his starters get in their most minutes — and then the last preseason game is used exclusively to make the final roster decisions. Not playing starters in the final preseason game also gave them a week of rest before the regular season while protecting them from short-term injuries that could threaten their status for the start of the season. But with the NFL having next week off before the start of the regular season, head coaches face a dilemma: not playing their starters in this third preseason game could risk them being rusty. First and foremost, handicapping the preseason requires understanding what philosophical approach the respective head coaches are using for the preseason game. Head coaching team trends that are specific to the preseason can help, but the loss of the fourth preseason game makes the sample size thinner even for veteran NFL head coaches. Following beat reporters who can provide insight regarding how the head coach plans to use the game is helpful. Often this news does not break until the day of the game. Favorites were 23-22-2 ATS this preseason. Going back to include the preseason data from 2019, underdogs hold a narrow 54-47-5 ATS mark. The Under was 28-20 this preseason. After the Under was 35-27-1 in the 2019 preseason, the Under is now 63-47-1 in the last two preseasons. I started tracking ATS numbers for games that conclude a three-day joint practice session. Oftentimes, head coaches use the controlled scrimmage environment (where quarterbacks wear the red jersey that prohibits getting hit) to work on their more sophisticated plays and packages. Did that affect the results of the exhibition game? In 2019, dogs were 6-5 ATS in preseason games that concludes joint practices. The Under was 8-3 in those games. In 2021, dogs were 7-5 ATS, but the Over was 8-4. Overall, underdogs are 13-10 ATS in preseason games that conclude joint practices the last two seasons. The Under is 12-11 in those situations the last two seasons. While the sample size remains small, it appears there is no angle to be gleaned from those joint practice situations. Duly noted for 2022! Best of luck — Frank.

The Lost and Last Days of Scott Frost at Nebraska

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

Nebraska is (most likely) going to have a new coach for their fabled college football team next season. The writing may have been written on the wall earlier this month when the head coach Scott Frost was placed under investigation for the improper use of consultants and analysts during games and practices. The NCAA investigation may extend to include possible off-campus workouts and practices that Frost organized despite guidelines that prohibited those activities during the early stages of the COVID pandemic. While Frost is a Nebraska alumnus, so too is athletic director Trev Alberts who was hired for the position after Frost’s tenure had started — so he is not an Alberts hire. But if Alberts still had a chance to salvage things this season, the Cornhuskers’ 30-22 upset loss at Illinois as a 6-point favorite likely sealed his fate. It is not so much the upset loss that was infuriating (especially for backers like me) as it was the continued mental mistakes that have become endemic for this program under Frost. Nebraska surrendered a safety that opened the scoring. They then went on to dominate the first quarter — and Adrian Martinez’s inability to complete a potential touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver to take a 14-2 lead led to the Huskers settling for a field goal … which they missed. The Nebraska defense remained dominant — but when an interception on the Illini’s side of the field was nullified by a roughing-the-passer penalty. The momentum shifted, Illinois scored a touchdown on that drive — and they recovered a fumble at the Cornhuskers’ 41-yard line which they returned for a touchdown to seize a 16-9 halftime lead. The Illini scored two more touchdowns in the third quarter to take a 30-9 lead before the Huskers scored two touchdowns to make the final score look respectable. Nebraska won the yardage battle by a 392 to 326 margin — yet Frost’s team was not competitive on the scoreboard. If that performance did not seal Frost’s fate in the eyes of Albert after the game, the coach’s comments after the game probably did. Uttered Frost about the play of his offense: “About half of our game plan was out the window when they lined up how they did.”To paraphrase the football wisdom of Bugs Bunny: “What a maroon!”As if accidentally conceding that one’s offensive acumen does not include the ability to make adjustments (after a month of practice), admitting to being be owned by Illinois coach Bret Bielema in his first game back in the Big Ten along with his defensive coordinator Ryan Walters who he poached from Missouri is not going to go over well with Albert who is one of the most fabled “blackshirts” in the history of the Nebraska program. Frost’s tenure with the Cornhuskers has been a disaster. On the field, the team is now 12-21 with seven upsets losses in his fourth season. They are 9-22 in Big Ten play. Supposedly an offensive guru, Nebraska scored only 23.1 PPG last season which was the lowest mark for the football team this century. The terrible play of the special teams has been the most consistent aspect of the program under Frost. Two of his best players last year, quarterback Luke McCaffrey and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, transferred away from the program in the offseason. Frost and his coaching staff are not developing NFL talent. And the recruiting has completely fallen off. 247 Sports rated the Huskers’ 2022 recruiting class as last in the Big Ten. Frost became a hot name in the college football ranks when he oversaw Central Florida’s 13-0 season in 2017-18. Frost took over that program the year prior after the Golden Knights bottomed out with an 0-12 record. That 2016-17 season for UCF was fluky in that they lost a bunch of talent from the prior year — and then they got hit hard with injuries, bad luck, upset losses, close losses, and a retiring head coach midseason. Frost came to Orlando from Oregon where he was the offensive coordinator. With George O’Leary’s recruits, he was handed a great situation -- which he took full advantage of. Yet in Frost’s five seasons as a head coach, that 2017-18 campaign at Central Florida was the only team he coached a team with a winning record. I think coaches should get some benefit of the doubt from last year’s results given the challenges of COVID. But with the early returns now in for Nebraska this season, the program is lost under Frost’s guidance. Best of luck — Frank.

Combating Losing Streaks: My Self-Audit Process

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

Losing streaks are inevitable. If a bettor is making one to four bets a day on average (and more during football and college basketball season), then there are going to be some dry stretches over those 1000 or so tickets. The key to long-term betting success is not avoiding losing streaks as much as how to handle losing streak. First and foremost, do no harm. Don’t chase bad money with good money. Now is the time to remain ever-vigilant in maintaining your standards regarding what is a worthwhile situation for investment and what is not. Stay consistent. For me, if I am not handicapping well, it is because I have lost the balance between my qualitative analysis and my handicapping fundamentals. By qualitative analysis, I mean my understanding and appreciation of what is going on between the two teams in question. Do I have the right take on a team being undervalued or overvalued? Am I missing information regarding injuries? Are there changes in tactics that are impacting things? Have I fallen into the trap of accepting conventional wisdom?By handicapping fundamentals, I mean remaining sensitive to the betting situation independent of the particulars of the two teams in question. Am I investing in situations that I would otherwise draw red flags? Am I ignoring situations that I would otherwise jump on? I am betting on too many plays? Am I not getting enough action out there?When I am most successful, the decisions I am making on a daily basis take into account the specifics of the two teams in question and then balancing those thoughts with the handicapper situational perspective independent from the two teams in question. When the qualitative assessments and handicapper instincts are in unison, that should lead to strong plays. If those two perspectives are in conflict, I should be passing. When the picture is muddier, I should be weighing evidence and making decisions to play or pass. After losses, I conduct autopsies to discern if I made a judgment mistake. If the losses coincide with ignoring some of the handicapping fundamentals I have accrued over the years, then it is a pretty easy fix to get back to prioritizing those values. If the autopsy exposes that I did not know as much about the issues that would decide the game, then I need to get in the trenches and learn more about the teams. Sometimes that is simply a function of harder work. But sometimes this work requires the difficult decision that the sources I am leaning on are not making a winning difference. That requires me to dump sources of information in the search for better analysis to help inform my conclusions. More often than not, if I get stuck in a losing streak in a sport, it is because the research I conduct is not providing enough actionable information. As the years have gone by, I rely less and less on ESPN (TV and their print/web) sources to help inform my thoughts. 538.com has all but dropped off the planet for me. In an ideal world, I could read it all. In practice, I need to make choices in a 24-hour day. Making better choices as to where I get my supporting research is often the solution to losing streaks. But given all this, sometimes the best response to a losing streak is not change anything. Sometimes the breaks don’t go our way. It is called bad luck. It happens. Sometimes well-informed choices backed by sound handicapping fundamentals do not lead to a winning ticket. Successfully identifying those situations — and then not changing course — is the best route to long-term success. The most important quality to embrace when conducting a self-audit is brutal honesty. Perhaps the choices are bad? Or perhaps the knowledge of the teams is simply rudimentary. But if conducting an autopsy of past losses leads to the conclusion that the choice was sound and the handicapping of the situation was spot-on, then perhaps the best conclusion is to simply accept that we can’t win them all. And regarding the losing streak, this too shall pass.Best of luck — Frank.

Someone, Please Kill the “Mike Budenholzer Won’t Make Adjustments” Narrative.

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

OK, I’ll do it. The notion that Mike Budenholzer lacks the wherewithal to make adjustments on the fly or from game to game in the NBA playoffs was always a tired and lazy criticism. It is the American pastime to second-guess coaching decisions — it is the sports equivalent of the joy audience members have in ridiculing the bad singer on American Idol or the craven power-hungry losers on Survivor. The programming serves the self-satisfying ego of the viewer by offering a few fleeting moments of superiority. The same dynamic works in sports with sports radio, the 24-Hour Hot Take TV Industry, and much of the color commentary in-game focused on the mistakes made by the coaches and players. And when the drive to feel superior to someone on TV can combine with the beehive mentality of jumping on an establishing bandwagon for some good ole confirmation bias feedback loops, the makings of conventional wisdom form. It is not uncommon for this conventional wisdom to be flat wrong that is beside the point. Flattering the ego of the individual presenting the Hot Take is the medium and the message. I don’t know how good of a basketball coach Mike Budenholzer is. I am not qualified to assess his tactical decisions. I also lack the inside knowledge regarding what his realistic options were at hand when a chance in tactics was perhaps needed. But I did take careful notes of the adjustments he made in the 2021 postseason which ultimately led to his Milwaukee Bucks winning the NBA title. I’ll identify a few.(1) Played his best players for more minutes in the playoffs. A common criticism Budenholzer received during the NBA playoffs in the bubble last year was that he was not playing his Big Two of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton's higher minutes. In Games One-Three of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Miami, Antetokounmpo averaged 37.9 minutes per game before getting injured in Game Four which completed the Heat’s four-game sweep. Middleton averaged 39.2 minutes per game in those four games. This critique is always troublesome for outsiders who lack the inside knowledge regarding how comfortable the player is in playing extended minutes. Interestingly, Budenholzer appeared to give Antetokounmpo the green light to take himself out of the game in this postseason. Perhaps that was seen as a necessity since Antetokoumpo was playing through injuries? Despite acquiring Jrue Holiday in the offseason to give his team a Big Three, Budenholzer did play those stars for longer periods in this postseason. Antetokounmpo averaged 40 minutes per game in the Brooklyn Nets series before average 39.8 minutes per game in the NBA Finals. Middleton averaged 42.5 minutes per game in the NBA Finals. Holiday averaged 41.7 minutes per game in the Finals. Predictably, I recall seeing some who criticized Budenholzer for not playing his stars enough last postseason now blame him for overworking his Big Three in these playoffs. Once the conclusion is determined (Budenholzer Bad!), the most important thing for some becomes confirming one’s prior assumptions. (2) Break the Giannis defensive wall by putting the ball in Middleton’s hands. Much was made of the defensive strategy that the Miami Heat deployed last year where they positioned three or four players into a wall-like formation to take away Antetokounmpo’s driving ability. In theory, the Bucks “adjustment” is simply for Antetokounmpo to drive-and-dish to an open shooter behind the arc to punish the tactic with 3-pointers — but the shooters need to make shots. It is hard to blame Budenholzer for shots not falling. However, this might be an offensive strategy that works better during the regular season rather than during the pressure of playoff basketball (see the James Harden Houston Rockets). Budenholzer’s adjustment in the playoffs this season was to take the ball out of Antetokounmpo’s hands as the primary ball-handler and let Middleton dictate the offense. Not only did Middleton thrive in this role with clutch baskets, but it allowed Antetokounmpo to crash the glass for second-chance scoring opportunities. (3) Pairing Bobby Portis with Antetokounmpo. Budenholzer did this early in the playoffs but got away from him in the Nets series since Portis was a liability on defense. But after falling behind 0-2 to the Suns in the NBA Finals, Coach Bud got back to getting Portis on the court with the Greek Freak. Portis was a three-point shooting threat that Phoenix had to respect. As opposed to when Brook Lopez or P.J. Tucker is on the court when Budenholzer could give Antetokounmpo stretches of the game where he was surrounded by four shooters to create more space for him to drive to the hole. When coaches like Ty Lue make elementary adjustments like this, they are lauded as geniuses. (4) Pick-and-roll defensive subtleties. It seemed like it was June of 2021 when many in the analytics community were introduced to the concept of drop coverage defense against pick-and-rolls. Rather than engage in a full-on switch to combat the offensive team’s pick, drop coverage has the switching defender accept the new defensive assignment but play off the ball. This move temporarily takes away a driving lane or a cut by the picker while giving time for a potential switch-back. But the drop does give space to the ball handler for an open jump shot. Chris Paul punished this tactic in the opening game of the Finals with his great mid-range game. It was a fascinating development to watch many in the analytics community calling the 2-point midrange shot the worst shot in basketball now blasting Budenholzer for a defensive tactic that lulled the opposition into taking this very shot. OK, whatever. Brook Lopez is an outstanding defensive player on drop coverage. Rather than completely abandoning this defense, the Bucks had Lopez just not drop back so much and play a step or two closer to the potential CP3 jumper to offer more resistance — and hand closer to the face. Paul was never as effective on these shots the rest of the series. (5) Deploy Holiday to start defending Paul in the backcourt. A question the Bucks’ brain trust had entering the NBA Finals regarded how to use Holiday as their best on-the-ball defender. Should he draw the assignment against Paul or Devin Booker? In Game One, Holiday defended Booker — and Paul had his big game. In Game Two, not only did Budenholzer switch assignments, but he had Holiday begin his defensive assault on CP3 as soon as he got the ball in the backcourt — forcing the veteran to exert more energy just to get into their half-court offense. Within three games of this tactic, Michael Wilbon was reduced to making excuses for his self-proclaimed best friend regarding a secret injury that we must not know about. These adjustments are just from my notes. I am sure there is more than those with a more sophisticated knowledge of the game appreciated. But coaches should not necessarily be judged on the adjustments they make. Sometimes the best tactical decision is to resist the urge to abandon ship on the strategies that have succeeded in the past. And every adjustment comes with a tradeoff. The Bucks led the league in defensive free throw rate in the regular season and the playoffs. That was not an accident. It was by design. Drop coverage on pick-and-rolls helps to lower foul rates since it is disincentives the player with the ball to drive the lane. Shooting midrange jump shots are less likely to draw fouls. And when your team is so dependent on Antetokounmpo, perhaps ensuring he does not get into foul trouble is a smart tactic? I don’t know if drop coverage on pick-and-rolls is better than switching with tight coverage or even not switching and fighting through the pick. I do know that if Wilbon or any of the other ankle-biters on the bandwagon want to criticize a tactic, they should at least engage the argument regarding why the tradeoff from the adjustment does not make things worse. Unfortunately, the notion that Budenholzer does not make adjustments will likely continue. Zombie narratives continue even after championships. But, those who continue to make the argument do serve a public good by telling on themselves. Best of luck — Frank.

The Fundamental Flaw in Regular Season NHL Analytics When Applied to the Postseason.

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

The Colorado Avalanche were laptop darlings who put up the best five-on-five regular season analytics since that advanced data started being tracked closely in 2007-08. Despite being significant favorites to win the West Division Finals, they were upset by the Vegas Golden Knights in six games. Vegas was then upset in the Stanley Cup Semifinals against a Montreal Canadiens team that many mathematical projections considered the worst team in the playoffs. The Golden Knights were -5000 money line favorites to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The New York Islanders overperformed relative to the projections from the analytics’ models for the third straight season under head coach Barry Trotz by taking the Tampa Bay Lightning to seven games in their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. What gives? Are these outlier results? Or is there a fundamental flaw in the assumptions of the mathematical projections used to make predictions in the Stanley Cup playoffs? I think that is the case.Frankly, most of the methods I use to handicap the NHL in the regular season I throw out when handicapping in the playoffs. The goals and dynamic of the regular season seem too different than the competitive experience of the Stanley Cup playoffs. This is not just my observation from handicapping the NHL for 25 years — this is what NHL players and coaches say. The regular season is a grind with teams playing three or four times a week. Often the zeal from the players is on scoring goals and padding statistics since stats help with new contracts. Seeding for the playoffs is not nearly the priority that it is in other sports since home-ice advantage is less of a factor. The coaching edge in making the final shift change at home is important, but the roar of the crowd has less impact on the game, generally, because the game is so fast. Just getting into the playoffs healthy and rested is more important than seizing a higher seed. The Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup in 2012 despite being seeded eighth in the Western Conference. None of the top seeds in the four divisions this year advanced to the Semifinals. Once the playoffs start, the zeal shifts from scoring goals to stopping goals. Players are much more willing to sacrifice their bodies to block shots. Star players take longer shifts. Benches are shortened. And the nature of a seven-game series completely changes the game-to-game dynamic. Players and coaches get deeper into their planning and preparation in stopping their opponents. Speed advantages begin to get neutralized. In the battle between offensive technique and defensive tactics, the defense tends to get the upper hand. The higher stakes of the playoffs create a new sense of urgency not felt in the regular season. Game management mistakes are more often game-changing plays. Finally, the referees are more likely to swallow their whistles and let the action continue. I have seen many NHL analytics experts complain loudly about the lack of penalties in this postseason. They might as well complain about the weather. It has been that way for decades. Every team that has made the playoffs in the last 50 years has sob stories. Keep crying (and losing), or adapt. There is a long list of NHL teams that were dynamic offensive teams in the regular season who then folded in the postseason. Tampa Bay had this problem before adjusting their style of play and making some subtle changes to their roster after getting swept in the first round of the 2019 playoffs to a defensive-minded Columbus team. That Lightning team also needed to learn to be better game-managers. Colorado made some critical mistakes in their series with Vegas. Rather than making the high-risk pass in the third period that often netted an additional goal, the Avalanche need to learn to not risk the costly turnover that might give their opponents a breakaway advantage. Scoring more is not as valuable as not risking getting exposed. When Tampa Bay finally learned that lesson, they won the Stanley Cup last year — and they appear to be on the verge of repeating as champions.The analytics folks are in a pickle as to how to adapt. Their modus operandi depends on the predictability of their data. It is difficult for them to concede the limitations of their regular season numbers, even if that happens to be the case. By the time the sample sizes become actionable in the postseason, the playoffs are almost over. Handicappers (like me) that also incorporate qualitative analysis can still find success (never more effective than in the 2017 playoffs where we ended on a 20-3 sides run with Pittsburgh’s repeat as Stanley Cup champions). Teams with veteran players with playoff experience that play defensive-first physical hockey with counter-attacking offensive tactics and elite goal-tending fit a profile that tends to perform better in the playoffs. That description seems to apply to the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders this postseason. Perhaps the NHL analytics community would find fertile ground in identifying team profiles that have success in the playoffs — and then make appropriate comparisons to new playoff teams. This was the interesting approach that Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating endeavored in their seminal 2015 article on Giant Killers in ESPN The Magazine that profiled the different templates of teams that tend to pull upsets in college basketball’s March Madness.Best of luck — Frank.

Was Jon Rahm’s Extra-Motivation the Key to Winning the US Open?

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

I think it was George Carlin who had a comedy bit in his stand-up act that mocked the notion of someone putting on their “game face.” Cue Carlin trying out several goofy facial expressions mimicking the hypothetical professional athlete who is ready to get down to business to take their craft extra-seriously. Carlin was the best.I thought of this joke when handicapping the US Open and reading many of the assessments regarding Jon Rahm’s chances of winning the tournament. The Spaniard was returning to action for the first time since having to disqualify himself ten days prior after the third round of the Memorial Tournament where he held a dominant six-stroke lead before getting word that he tested positive for COVID. With Rahm out of the way, space was opened up for Patrick Cantlay to outduel Collin Morikawa to win Jack Nicklaus’ tournament at Muirfield Village. There was some commentary that Rahm should have been allowed to complete the final round by himself early the next day in place of having to be disqualified. That is absurd. Part of the professional challenge in winning a golf tournament is to handle the pressure of performing when winning or losing is on the line. Round Four of a golf tournament is not the SATs, to be completed whenever possible. Besides, letting Rahm play by himself to complete the tournament would have given him a competitive advantage after violating a tournament rule (don’t test positive for COVID). It was unfortunate, but so are many of the rules of professional golf. The rules should not change depending on how where the golfer is on the leader board at the time.I digress. With Rahm cleared from COVID quarantine just in time for the US Open at Torrey Pines, many observers picked Rahm to win the event because he would be particularly motivated to prove himself after being robbed of his chance to win the Memorial. There were plenty of reasons to favor Rahm to win the US Open — but thinking he retained “extra” motivation after his DQ two weeks earlier was not a good one. At all. Was Rahm not motivated to finally win his first major before losing out on his opportunity to win the Memorial in Round Four? Were his competitors that week less motivated to win a major championship because their season had yet to be interrupted by COVID (or anything else). Brooks Koepka? Bryson DeChambeau? Jordan Spieth? Really?And, look, I am a handicapper that tries to make assessments into relative differences in motivation. That level of qualitative analysis is one of the tools in my proverbial toolbox. The handicappers and forecasters that rely exclusively on quantitative analysis tend to dismiss motivation as a factor. I think there are plenty of times when there may be discrepancies between two sides regarding how much they want to win — even amongst professionals. To be specific, I suspect that the drive that Phil Mickelson had to win the US Open may not have been as strong as it was when he pulled off his historic victory at the PGA Championship the previous month. Don’t get me wrong: when Mickelson teed off on the first tee in the first round, he probably wanted to win just as much as Jon Rahm or Brooks Koepka did. But this gets to the broader point: I care about motivation when it translates into harder and longer work to prepare for a tournament or game. If the players on the University of Michigan football team are all preparing ten extra hours in the week preparing to play arch-rival Ohio State, that may finally translate into a victory again against the Buckeyes. I am not sure if Mickelson worked quite as hard to prepare for the US Open as he was to prepare for the PGA Championship. It is only natural to level off your work once you find the success one is seeking. For Rahm, being even more motivated to win the US Open after suffering his DQ at the Memorial would have translated into more time practicing his craft on the golf course. But Rahm was required to be in quarantine — so he could not put in the work that makes the difference vis-a-vis your peers when there is a difference in motivation. Maybe the physical and mental break from golf helped Rahm once the US Open started? Could be — but that is a different argument (and one I considered). There were plenty of good reasons to like Rahm to win the US Open. He ranked number one on the tour in Adjusted Scoring at the time. He was playing great golf, as evidenced by his dominant lead at the Memorial before his DQ. He had a great course history at Torrey Pines. But Rahm wanting to prove something after losing out his chance to win the Memorial was not one of them. He was robbed of the ability to translate that extra incentive into the tangible work that makes a difference once the competition starts. And I do not buy the notion that competitors care more about success once their event starts.I passed on Rahm to win the US Open, mostly because his price at +1000 was too low. It looked like an underlay bet to me. My Best Best was on Brooks Koepka who closed at +1600 to win — and he finished fourth. Koepka is on record admitting his focus tends to wane at non-majors — so there is no way I think he was less motivated to win his third US Open than Rahm was to finally win his first major championship. Rahm having something to prove at the US Open after getting DQed in his last start was an easy sound bite or sentence to write. Too easy, and not very smart. As if the DQ afforded Rahm the opportunity he finally needed to find his “game face.” Best of luck — Frank.

Is It Time to Begin Fading the NBA Playoff Zig-Zag?

Monday, May 31, 2021

The Zig-Zag theory for handicapping the NBA playoffs has steadily gained in popularity over the last few years. The concept is appealing: bet on teams coming off a loss in the playoffs to cover the point spread. It is pretty easy to fill in the narrative to justify the strategy. Losing teams have more resolve to bounce back from a loss. Winning teams may have just a little less urgency to win again. And, at one point, teams coming off a playoff win in the series may become overvalued in the next game if the betting public becomes too enamored with the Recency Effect.But the point spread is the run — and the great equalizer. If the betting public begins to ignore the Recency Effect and begin banking on the Zig-Zag theory, the oddsmakers will adjust with worse lines on the team coming off a loss. Every half-point line moment matters as it decreases the win probability of that side covering the point spread. As more and more bettors employ the Zig-Zag approach, the value in the system will likely decline. I wonder if there will become a time where the betting value will become to fly the contrarian flag and bet against the zig-zag?The most important thing to consider when assessing past data is that it must be analyzed in relation to the point spread situation in question. Maybe a home favorite coming off a point spread loss by double-digits have covered the point spread in 28 of these last 32 situations — but if that home favorite is laying, say, 100 points, then they are not going to cover the point spread no matter who shiny the data mined angle is. Obviously, this example is exaggerated, but I do so to make this observation: there is a threshold as to when a past truth derived from empirical data will stop being a truth in the future given the changing expectations of the situation as demonstrated by the fluid point spread. Let’s look at how the Zig-Zag theory has done so far through four games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Overall, teams coming off straight-up losses in the previous playoff game this season have then covered the point spread in 11 of the 24 games. Or, put another way, Zig-Zag is 11-13 ATS in Games Two, Three, and Four this postseason. Sample size is always a consideration, but zombie auto bet Zig-Zaggers have not made money in these playoffs. Let’s look at the game-by-game breakdowns. In Game Two, teams off a straight-up loss in Game One are 4-4 ATS. In Game Three, teams off a straight-up loss in Game Two are 3-5 ATS. In Game Four, teams off a straight-up loss in Game Three are 4-4 ATS. In general, I am highly skeptical of silver bullet evidence to inform a situation in which to invest. The fluidity of the market makes such evidence short-term, at best. My handicapping approach is to assess and then analyze a wealth of evidence utilizing several different methods and approaches. My Reports are long to communicate this investment. Zig-Zag is certainly something I look at. I find the theory carries more weight when it combines with other intangibles such as team trends that help to expose a personality of a team.I will continue to assess how the Zig-Zag theory is working as the NBA playoffs move forward. Sharp bettors should already be exerted caution when considering the system. Sometimes the best answer to a Zig is to just pass. The day may come sooner rather than later that the expectation of a Zag from the betting market may create value to keep on Zigging. Best of luck — Frank.

NHL Playoff Over/Under Trends After the 1st Round

Monday, May 31, 2021

One of the data items I track is Over/Under results per each NHL game. I have found that there are certain games in a playoff series that are more likely to go Over the Total, and other games in a series that are likely to finish Under the Total. Following these trends helps to inform my decisions as to when to invest in a Total — and when to avoid investing in a Total I was leaning towards. These are not rules; it would be foolish to just zombie auto-bet the Over just because Game Threes in a playoff series have tended to be higher-scoring affairs. Data mining empirical trends like that — and then relying on them — is a good way to lose a bankroll. Instead, these data provide just another piece of evidence to consider when evaluating the case to play an Over, an Under, or to pass on the Totals situation. Game Ones had three Overs and five Unders in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Game Twos had two Overs and six Unders in the first round.Game Threes had seven Overs and one under. Game Fours had four Overs and four Unders. Game Fives had two Overs and six Unders.Game Sixes had two Overs and three Unders. Game Sevens had one Over and one Under.These data offer a couple of surprises. The Game Two and Game Three numbers are of note. The sample sizes are small, so there is not much to conclude from just the first round. But this information continues to fine-tune the data I have been collecting. And trends may change over time. A thing to keep in mind with all NHL data so far this season is that every number has been produced from divisional contests. There has to be a game played out-of-division. I am interested in if the exclusive divisional schedules would result in more Unders or more Overs given the heightened familiarity between the teams. In the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, there were 21 Overs and 24 Unders. Let’s break that data down by division.North Division: four Overs, seven Unders. East Division: four Overs, seven Unders. Central Division: seven Overs, five Unders. West Division: six Overs, five Unders.I will keep looking at these trends in the second round of the playoffs. Assessing this data is just another tool in the toolbox.Best of luck — Frank.

Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni: Secret Soul Mates?

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

At first glance, it would not seem that Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni would have much in common outside interest in scheming NFL plays on offense. Rodgers is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback destined for the Hall of Fame. Sirianni was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts before flop sweating through his first press conference in a golf shirt as the new head coach for the Philadelphia Eagles. But both individuals have something in common: they have been involved in dramas that reflect the increasing trend of NFL franchises to treat the white-collar management as the superstars of the organization. This is a trend that started in Major League Baseball. General managers began taking their role to be more than just assembling the parts for their managers to manipulate. The movie Moneyball depicts this phenomenon with Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane frustrated with Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Art Howe reluctance to use the players the way in which he wanted. Beane was the hero in that story. He was adventurous rebel thinking outside the box as the underdog running a baseball team that could not extravagantly spend the money that rich teams were able to indulge. Howe was the curmudgeon locked in the old world. Jonah Hill played the role of Paul DePodesta who Beane hires to teach him the secret math taught in the Ivy Leagues that would revolutionize baseball. The secret sauce is dubbed “sabermetrics” in baseball while analyzing statistics in other sports has been given the esoteric label of “analytics.” As I have written elsewhere, the secret math offers capital-T Truth — and those who question it are small-minded dinosaurs. Well, at least that is the impression that some who dabble (and profit) in the sports analytics community tend to frame the issues. An embrace of a deeper appreciation of statistics in football was inevitable, but its growth in football is neatly symbolized by DePodesta leaving the Oakland A’s for the NFL and the Cleveland Browns. When Browns' general manager Sashi Brown traded away many of his veterans to acquire draft choices, it was as if DePodesta had discovered the concept of tanking games in ancient texts at the Harvard library. For many, the Browns’ Super Bowl was inevitable — and it was going to be clear who the heroes would be in that story. Analytics are being embraced by every sport. In the NBA, we see its influence in the Philadelphia 76ers “trust the process” mantra that led to their current superstar duo of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. General manager Daryl Morey was highly influenced by analytics is assembling his Houston Rockets teams that were allergic to any shot that was not at the rim or behind the arc. Morey hired a head coach in Mike D’Antoni who shared this offensive philosophy. Morey now happens to be the GM for the Sixers. The number of championship appearances for the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia 76ers, and Houston Rockets remains zero. To be fair, there are teams across all the major sports that have invested in analytics to then win championships. The Houston Astros offer the best example in MLB, and the Boston Red Sox won the World Series with an analytics department even after they failed to woo Beane away from Oakland. But then again, it is not as if the use of statistics was invented by the Oakland A’s. Bill Belichick is shrewd with his ability to use statistics to help inform his decisions as head coach and general manager of the New England Patriots. But Belichick does not have a shiny Ivy League degree hanging on his office wall. It is harder to peddle the “Belichick” way on your new statistics website. This brings us back to Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni. Rodgers is in a power struggle with Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst and his hand-picked head coach, Matt LaFleur. Remember that LaFleur was the offensive coordinator of the middling Tennessee Titans offense that was continually flailing away on 4th-and-1s in 2018-19. But LaFleur was buddies with Sean McVay, the new wunderkind who could solve personnel mismatches with the power of his intellect and a nearby whiteboard. Now granted, Gutekunst is no Harvard man. But even a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse appreciates the power of pulling the strings from behind his office desk. He could hire LaFleur to “fix” Rodgers — and if the veteran quarterback doesn’t like it, then he would just get another quarterback that LaFleur would scheme-to-success using the new secret sauce. It has been reported that it was Gutekunst who made the unilateral decision to trade up in the first round last year to draft quarterback Jordan Love. Amidst whispers of Love struggling in practices (albeit, in a season impacted by COVID taking away the normal practice routines), LaFleur never elevated him above the third string. The Packers’ management has communicated that Rodgers is expendable. That motivated Rodgers’ rebuttal asking to be traded on the first day of the NFL draft. It was interesting to then observe Gutekunst choosing a defensive player in the first round, an area of need but not a choice that would placate Rodgers. In Philadelphia, general manager Howie Roseman along with highly engaged owner Jeffrey Lurie proved that their Super Bowl-winning head coach, Doug Pederson, was expendable when they fired him after the season. Did one of them set Pederson up by demanding he makes sure Nate Sudfeld got some reps at quarterback, despite the Eagles playing in a close game with Washington late in the season? Sure, Philadelphia was “trusting the process” by tanking, but management (and/or ownership) telling the head coach how to use his players comes straight out of Brad Pitt trading away the first baseman that Philip Seymour Hoffman was playing every day instead of Chris Pratt. It was later revealed that Roseman and Lurie would spend hours berating Pederson after games while demanding he defends the coaching decisions he made during the game. Roseman got his Law Degree at the University of Florida. Lurie was an academic with a doctorate before he finally followed in the footsteps of Michael Corleone to go into the family business to run the Hollywood movie company his grandfather founded. He produced Inside Man. Pederson was a career backup quarterback after a college career at UL-Monroe. Roseman and Lurie lure Nick Sirianni away from Indianapolis who was the offensive coordinator for Frank Reich, who was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles’ Super Bowl triumph. The 39-year-old looked over his head in his first press conference. He was nervous, which is not a crime. But it is also a characteristic of someone likely to be easily intimidated. Sirianni comes from a coaching family who began his coaching career after graduating from Mt. Union where he was a Division-III star. Perhaps it is that experience where he developed the rigor for competition that motivated his Rock-Paper-Scissors zoom duels with his new players? Sirianni may find success in Philadelphia, despite what seems to be a rocky start. What happens in August will matter far more than these initial events. He inherits a hot mess. But it seems evident that Roseman and Lurie hired someone who will take orders. Like in Major League Baseball where Ivy Leaguers have redefined the game to be a battle between strikeouts versus home runs because of The Math — the same Math that discovered that three points count more than two in basketball — the National Football League is slowly being taken over by the suits who know better. Because they have always known better. Just like the Enron guys. They were the smartest guys in the room too. How’s Enron doing lately?Best of luck -- Frank

Expand the College Football Playoffs!

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

FBS commissioners are considering the expansion of the number of teams that would qualify for the college football playoffs. This is a good idea! The creation of a four-team playoff was considered by many to be a lean-and-mean compromise at the time. Too often there was at least another team that had a credible argument to be considered to be chosen by the Bowl Championship Series to be one of the two teams to play for the National Championship. Added a semifinal playoff round of four teams addressed that issue without creating a large bracket akin to March Madness. But the new system has instead entrenched a hierarchy of the have and the have-nots. In the eight years with a four-team playoff, only eleven college football programs have competed in the event. Only four programs have won a national championship. The structure is not working to create and maintain fan interest. The powers-that-be should expand the college football playoff to 12 teams. The top four seeds should get byes into the quarterfinals. Here’s why:(1) More football games with high stakes are good! For those of us in the sports gambling industry, this would be a boon. The more high-profile games, the better, at least until the product becomes oversaturated. With interest beginning to wane as the same three to four teams compete in the playoff, the problem is not the oversaturation of college football, but the predominance of the same teams getting the opportunity. (2) Upsets will happen! College football may be the only sporting event where the avenues to be rewarded for midseason improvement are foreclosed. The best NFL team over the last 20 years has been the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick has a long history of his teams playing poorly in September before finding the groove later in the season. Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl run this season was propelled by their playing their best football starting in December. Is midseason improvement simply limited to the professionals? Of course not. One of the fascinating elements of March Madness is observing the improvement in the play of college basketball teams benefiting from months of practice, coaching, and competition. How many college football teams peaked late in the season over the years that would have proven to be the best team in the nation if only given the opportunity? The notion that the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world would continue to blow teams out like we have seen recently in the semifinals is remarkably naive. Sure, some blowouts will happen, but so too will the upsets. Even if you do not think that the improving teams will challenge the traditional powerhouses when playing on a neutral field under the pressure of a single-elimination tournament, the law of probability indicates that it will be more difficult for favorites with an expected win probability of, say, 75% or better to win more games. (3) Changes to the current system can only disrupt the Alabama/Clemson dominance. Arguments that expanding the playoff will only help the programs currently thriving in the four-team playoff miss the point. Save for granting Alabama and Clemson an automatic bid into the semifinals, the current system could not benefit these two programs more, as is. As recent history attests, Alabama and Clemson can both lose a regular-season game and still be tapped to playing in the semifinals because they remain entrenched as the first two teams on the list of the next group of teams with the fewest losses. This gives Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney tremendous advantages. Expanding the playoff structure opens up these benefits to other programs. Don’t underestimate the impact this has on recruiting. If 12 teams make the playoff, Saban and Swinney can no longer pitch recruits that if they want the national spotlight of playing in the college football playoffs, then they better commit to their school. (4) Arguments against expansion misidentify the problem. Admittedly, there are concerns with asking college football players to play a longer season. More games mean a higher risk of injury. More games mean less time in the classroom. But these are arguments against a playoff, in general. It is disingenuous to only begin expressing concerns about injury and the sanctity of the student-athlete after a four-team playoff is in place. The genie is out of the bottle. Instead, the legitimate concerns about player safety and classroom time should be redirected to the higher ambition of finally getting the players paid for the efforts. Pay the players! This is a topic worthy of another discussion, but paying the players resolves most of the rationalizations to not expand the playoffs. Best of luck — Frank.

Finding Hidden Value: CBB Maryland’s Home/Road Splits

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2021

Maryland’s head coach Mark Turgeon seemed to shift his tactics a bit after his team lost at Michigan, 87-63, on January 19th. There were 70 possessions in that game. The Terrapins did not see 70 possessions for the next 12 games lasting through the rest of the regular season. Turgeon slowed the pace of the games down particularly on the road. This change in approach helped to create some great betting opportunities later in the season. Let’s look at Maryland's first-round game in the NCAA Tournament against UConn.The Terrapins’ defensive prowess was underappreciated entering that game against the Huskies. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home at the time, they jumped to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road either on a neutral court or in true road games. But Turgeon was also seeing a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins were 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fell to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They were scoring 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which was -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland seemed to be clearly improving their play on defense as the season moved on. They had held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after Michigan made 51.7% of their shots against them on a neutral court in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. They ranked 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season going into the NCAA Tournament. Playing away from home where their offense declines but their defense improves offered an intriguing Under opportunity. But I do not handicap if I do not see complementary evidence from the other team involved in the game. In this instance, there was strong evidence from UConn that supported a play on the Under. The Huskies led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home at the time, they improved to fifth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road! And to put the icing on the cake, UConn was only making 40% of their shots on the road which resulted in 67.7 PPG which was -4.8 PPG below their season average. The Maryland/UConn Under was our 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year — and we were rewarded with a winning ticket after the Terrapins held the Huskies to just 54 points in their 63-54 victory that fell comfortably below the total that closed in the high 120s.This discovery about Maryland’s distinct play when playing away from College Park also played a significant role in the winning of our 25* CBB Big Ten Total of Year with the Under in the Terrapins’ 60-55 win at Northwestern on March 3rd. The Terrapins’ strong defensive play on the road also played a role in our backing them in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament against a Michigan State team that played significantly better at home at the Breslin Center than they did on the road. Finding the hidden value in Maryland’s home/road defensive splits made the winning difference on several occasions.Best of luck for us — Frank.

Finding Hidden Value: CBB Arkansas’ Home/Road Defensive Splits

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2021

The NCAA Tournament Elite 8 matchup between Arkansas and Baylor presented great value on the Bears. The Razorbacks had once again skirted danger for the third straight game in the 2021 Big Dance by falling behind by double-digits against Oral Roberts before rallying for the win. I argued at the time that the Razorbacks cannot afford to do that for the fourth straight time against this Baylor team — the Bears will start hitting more 3s and the lead will be 20. Baylor did not win by 20 points — but they built a 29-11 cushion in the first half which helped them cover the 7.5-point spread with their 81-72 victory. It was not just the inconsistent play that worried me about Arkansas — it was their particular vulnerabilities they demonstrated that generated their lapses in play. The Razorbacks entered that game ranked 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. However, they fell to 39th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. Handicappers that only looked at overall Net Efficiency may have overlooked this discrepancy. Let’s put a microscope on this. Arkansas had the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, but they fell to 43rd in that metric on the road. Looking even closer, while the Razorbacks held their opponents to just 27.9% shooting from behind the arc at home, ranking 31st in the nation, their opponents make 39.1% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 317th nationally. I argued that Baylor was the wrong opponent for them playing outside Fayetteville. And while Arkansas wanted to force turnovers with their full-court press, the Bears’ four-guard lineup only turns the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions away from Waco, ranking 42nd nationally. The Razorbacks only made 32.6% of their 3-pointers away from home at the time, ranking 187th in the nation. Baylor made only 3 of 19 (15.8%) of their shots from behind the arc in their Sweet 16 game against Villanova despite leading the nation with a 41.5% clip from 3-point land at the time. Against this Arkansas team that had such disparate home/road splits regarding opponent 3-point shooting, the Bears converted 8 of their 15 (53.2%) of their 3-pointers to make the difference in their win and point spread cover. And we won our 25* CBB Elite 8 Game of the Year on Baylor! Finding the hidden value in Arkansas’ home/road defensive splits made the winning difference. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Curious Case of Brighton’s xG

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

I wrote about the strengths and weaknesses of using expected goals (xG) analytics in handicapping soccer last summer. Since that time, Brighton and Hove Albion have become the poster child expressing the limitations of relying too heavily on these metrics. Bettors banking on the Regression Gods to finally help the Seagulls see more of their shots reach the back of the net likely find themselves in trouble now.As I wrote last summer: “Expected goals is a metric that determines a statistical probability on every scoring chance a team generates in a match. In this adventure of quantitative analysis, similar scoring situations are logged to determine a scoring probability from a deep data set in a way similar to measurements that predict the accuracy of an NBA shooter attempting a 22-foot corner 3-pointer. Shot attempts that have an empirical success rate of 35% or higher have been categorized as Big Chances. By reassessing a soccer match from the expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA) given the activity and nature of all the shot attempts in a match. If xG analysis offers a better evaluation regarding how a team is playing, then it could provide a more precise way to measure subsequent action.”Brighton played at West Bromwich Albion yesterday (February 27th) as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite. For handicappers relying almost exclusively on xG, that match may have looked rather tasty. The Seagulls may have been only 4 points above relegation land 16th place in the EPL table, but their expected points generated from a dissection of their xG and xGA for the season projects them as the fifth-best team in the English Premier League. West Brom, on the other hand, was in 19th place in points and dead-last 20th place in xPTs. Easy win for Brighton, right? If those bettors then looked at the xG results after that match, they might have started shopping for their new beachfront property. The Seagulls generated 3.28 xG against the Baggies while surrendering just 0.73 xG. The most likely score given that activity is a comfortable 3-1 win for Brighton. The actual score? West Brom 1, Brighton 0. Perhaps that was yet another statistical aberration. Just like last week, when Brighton dominated Crystal Palace by a 3.03-0.27 mark in xG but lost, 2-1. Just like two matchweeks ago when the Seagulls outclasses Aston Villa by a 2.44-0.44 mark in xG but settled for a 0-0 draw. I like to refer to the gambler’s expectation of outlier numbers returning back to a normal a call to the Regression Gods. The Miami Dolphins’ defense was not going to continue to bail out Tua Tagovailoa’s meager passing days in his rookie season by forcing multiple turnovers week-after-week-after week. When called, the Regression Gods eventually arrive. But these Gods never promised to show up promptly — and we need to keep our bankroll for when they finally make their triumphant return in the pursuit of justice. Sometimes these underlying numbers are not simply outliers due for regression. Sometimes these numbers are descriptive. To paraphrase former NFL head coach Dennis Green, sometimes the numbers “are we thought they were!” (“and we let ‘em off the hook!”). Perhaps Brighton has scored only 27 goals despite their xG projecting that the typical team typical players would score 37.85 goals precisely because the Seagulls are a roster consisting of below-average players! As I wrote in the summer: “Expected goals attempt to determine the most likely outcomes. But not all outcomes are created equal. Lionel Messi is going to score more goals than Glenn Murray dribbling up the left-wing and talking a shot from 30 yards out.” Well, Aaron Maupay may have replaced Murray as the Brighton striker this season — but he is still no Messi. Don’t get me wrong, I love xG — and incorporating expected goals analysis has improved by handicapping in soccer and hockey (where similar principles apply). We just should not become zombies to these numbers — it will drive us to bankruptcy. You wanna be an analytics fundamentalist and exclusively following the betting advice at Football Outsiders when betting the NFL? Kiss your bankroll goodbye in about a month. The most successful handicapping incorporates a variety of tools in the proverbial toolbox. A final tip regarding xG: use these numbers to illustrate the prospective floor and ceiling regarding a team’s potential. Brighton’s xG promise did pay off on February 3rd of this month when they upset Liverpool by a 1-0 score. They won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.97 margin — so this was not a fluky victory. Perhaps one lesson regarding the handicapping application of xG is this: underperforming teams in xG make dangerous underdogs but unreliability favorites. Best of luck — Frank.

Ya Think Iowa Plays Bad Defense? Check Out Ohio State!

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

Iowa may have the National Player of the Year in college basketball this season in Luka Garza with the senior All-American going into the last day of February leading the nation with a 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average. He leads a Hawkeyes’ attack that makes 40.4% of their 3-pointers, good for fourth-best in the nation. Fran McCaffrey’s team also assists on 63.5% of their made baskets with this exquisite ball movement ranking seventh-best nationally. For a team that scores 85.2 Points-Per-Game while ranking second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, perhaps it is these elite numbers that draw attention to their meager numbers on the other end of the court. Iowa is just 59th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 48.3% against them, ranking 104th nationally. The Hawkeyes do not attempt to force turnovers with their opponents only losing possession 16.2% of the time before a shot, 318th lowest nationally. And Iowa’s opponents nail 34.9% of their shots from behind the arc, 239th in the nation. These opponents are also taking 40.0% of their shots from downtown, with that mark being the 260th highest in the country. Perhaps the elite shooting Iowa brings to games is compelling their opponents to take more 3s to keep up? Maybe. But Iowa is clearly much better on offense with their liabilities on defense a red flag regarding their NCAA Tournament potential to make a deep run. The above seems to be fair criticism and assessment of the 2020-21 college basketball team entering March. But why have fellow Big Ten and nationally-ranked peers in Ohio State escaped similar scrutiny? The Buckeyes began the week as the number four ranked team in the nation and the de-facto fourth number one season in the NCAA Tournament — even after losing to third-ranked Michigan on February 21st. Sure, there is no shame in losing to this Wolverines team that is tearing up the Big Ten while only losing once all season even after a three-week COVID pause in the middle of the Big Ten season. Michigan scored 92 points against them while generating 1.37 Points-Per-Possession. Yet, the Wolverines got the credit and the Buckeyes got a pass since it was considered by many to be the best basketball game of the season. However, Ohio State entered their February 28th showdown with Iowa with worse defensive numbers across-the-board. The Buckeyes rank 81st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with eighth in the Big Ten in that metric (just behind Iowa in the conference). Opponents have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.1%, ranking 136th nationally. Like the Hawkeyes, Ohio State does not attempt to force many turnovers with their opponents only coughing it up in 15.6% of their possessions, 328th nationally. The Buckeyes do perform a bit better than Iowa in a 3-point defense. Their opponents make 34.4% of their 3-pointers, 215th nationally, while taking 38.6% of their shots from downtown, the 215th lowest rate. Generally, the analytics folks consider 3-point percentage defense to be a function of luck but limiting 3-point attempts more a function of skill. Maybe … the Milwaukee Bucks’ Mike Budenholzer would likely quarrel with that diagnosis since his system tries to lull opponents into taking bad 3-point shots. Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone defense at Syracuse attempts to accomplish the same task. Needless to say, Ohio State’s defense appears on paper to be performing worse than the Iowa defense. And at least the Hawkeyes thrive in one area: they do a good job of defending inside the arc. Their opponents are along only 45.6 % of their 2-point shots, 38th best in the nation. The Buckeyes’ opponents are making 47.5% of their shots inside the arc which ranks a respectable 97th in the nation. But that number declines to a 50.1% clip in Big Ten play, good for 9th best, while Iowa still holds their conference foes to 46.2% shooting of their 2s in conference play, ranking third best.These numbers helped to set the stage for their clash earlier today where Iowa upset Ohio State in Columbus, 73-57, as a 3-point underdog. The Buckeyes did little to stop the Hawkeyes scoring attack. Iowa shot 47% from the field while nailing 10 of 24 (42%) of their 3-pointers. Iowa scored at a healthy 1.11 Points-Per-Possession clip which was not far below their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency projected rate of 1.249. However, Ohio State made only 5 of their 17 (29%) 3-point attempts en route to a 45% shooting performance. The Buckeyes scored at just a 0.86 Points-Per-Possession clip which was well below their projected Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 1.226 per possession. Perhaps Ohio State just had a cold night shooting? Or perhaps the Iowa defense is steadily improving while the Buckeyes’ defense gets a pass due to their top-four ranking? During the Hawkeyes’ recent four-game winning streak, before losing at Michigan on Thursday, they had not allowed more than 68 points and 1.02 Points-Per-Possession during that stretch before the Wolverines scored 79 points at a 1.18 PPP rate. Now after their performance against the third-most efficient offense in the nation in the Buckeyes, Iowa has held five of their last six opponents below 69 points and 1.02 PPG. The Hawkeyes’ defense may be their Achilles’ heel in the Big Dance later this month. But the concerns they have on defense pale in comparison to the issues Chris Holtmann has with his Ohio State team right now.Best of luck — Frank.

Early Season 76ers' Data with/without Joel Embiid

Sunday, Jan 31, 2021

In handicapping the Philadelphia/Minnesota contest in the NBA on Friday (January 28th), I was looking closely at playing the Over until discovering that Joel Embiid was questionable with a sore back. The possibility that the Sixers would be without Embiid prompting to investigate how they have performed with their star center so far this season.Embiid has not played in four of their first 19 games going into that contest on the road against the Timberwolves. Philadelphia lost all four games. On December 27th, they lost at Cleveland by a 118-94 score. On January 9th, they lost at home to Denver, 115-103. On January 16th, the Sixers lost at Memphis by a 106-104 score. Then on January 25th, they lost at Denver, 119-104. The average score of those losses was 115-101.3. The 76ers have a field goal percentage of 42.5% in those four games with Embiid not playing while allowing their opponents to make 49.0% of their shots.In comparison, Philadelphia averages 116.7 PPG while making 50.7% of their shots in the 15 games Embiid played this season going into the weekend. That translates into +15.4 more PPG and a net 8.2% improvement in their shooting. On defense, the Sixers have held their 15 opponents when Embiid played to 109.4 PPG on 43.2% shooting from the field. While Philadelphia allows 8.1 more PPG without Embiid this season, opponents are shooting 5.8% better from the field. In regards to my potential Over play, the Sixers averaged 226.1 combined PPG in their 14 games with Embiid as opposed to them averaging 216.1 combined PPG in the four games they played without Embiid. So far, the loss of Embiid’s presence on defense has been overwhelmed by the loss of his offensive skills — although analyzing the possible slowing of the tempo without Embiid deserves consideration. I passed on the Over. Embiid took part in the shootaround and later played 27 minutes in Philly’s 118-94 victory that finished well below the 225 total. Fortunately, I avoided losing money on the Over bet I was considering. But the data regarding how Philly plays without Embiid could be valuable moving forward.The 76ers gave Embiid the night off on Sunday to end the month in their game at Indiana. Philadelphia rallied from a 95-82 deficit entering the fourth quarter to defeat the Pacers, 119-110. Analyzing how and why the Sixers scored 37 points in the fourth quarter while limiting Indiana to only 15 points in the final 12 minutes will be interesting. Of initial note is that the 76ers made 45 of their 92 shots for a 48.9% shooting percentage which is well above the 42.5% clip they had shot without Embiid in their previous four games. Yet they also allowed the Pacers to nail 41 of their 84 shots for a 48.8% clip which remains almost identical to the opponent’s field goal percentage of 49.0% they had without Embiid in their previous four games. Perhaps the decline in the Sixers’ defense will continue in the games Embiid does not play this season? That would make sense. Was Philly’s offensive effort against Indiana (without Embiid) an aberration? Or was their big fourth-quarter shooting effort the result of the Regression Gods finally making an appearance for this team that simply been underachieving how they should be playing on offense even without Embiid? This will be interesting to continue to track. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Using Shots-Gained Data to Handicap Golf

Sunday, Jan 31, 2021

When the PGA started using ShotLink data to provide more information for its golf events, it provided a remarkable resource for bettors. ShotLink uses proprietary data accumulated from cameras and lasers that track information each shot a golfer takes per round. I have written previously about the expected goals metric used in soccer. This data works similarly. ShotLink collects the data for every golfer from every one of his or her strokes during an event. This information can provide a point of comparison than for individual golfers. The concept of “strokes-gained” represents how an individual golfer's performance compared to the average from the field. This ShotLink data facilitates the statistical breakdown of each aspect of a golfer’s skill set. As an example, this information can be used to compare how a golfer performs 200 yards out from the pin versus the rest of the field. More generally, this data helps to create six different categories to help analyze a golfer’s strengths and weaknesses. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures a golfer’s first shot proficiency. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green measures a golfer’s ability to reach the green after their first shot. Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green measures a golfer’s pitching and sand wedge play. Shots-Gained: Putting measures how a golfer performs on the greens. Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green measures the performance of a golfer off the tee to get to his or her putter.This collected data can be quite helpful in handicapping the field for PGA tournaments. When assessing the field for the PGA Farmers Insurance Open earlier this week, I gave considerable weight to the following statistics: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey-Avoidance, Driving Distance. I did this given the nature of the South Course at Torrey Pines where three of the four rounds would be played this weekend. Past winners have excelled in those statistical categories. The South Course is a beast at 7465 yards with Poa Annua greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey-Avoidance, Driving Distance. This event was graded as the fourth-most difficult on the PGA Tour last season with the average professional finishing +0.534 strokes above par.These considerations led me to choose Patrick Reed as my Top Overlay Bet to win this tournament with him having +2800 odds at BetOnline. Reed ranked third in Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better so far for the 2020-21 season. He finished last season 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. Reed’s short game is one of the best in the world. He is eighth in the field in Bogey-Avoidance over his last six months. He ranked 32nd last year in Par-5 Scoring. He finished the ’19-20 campaign 26th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Reed was sixth on the tour in Par-4 Scoring. He is also great with the blade. Reed was fifth last year in Putting: Birdies or Better and 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Reed rewarded this work by winning the 2021 PGA Farmers Insurance Open by five strokes with his 14 under par. On to the PGA Waste Management Open, next week where analyzing the statistics that past winners have shared can help identify which of the professionals in next week’s field offers value.Best of luck for us — Frank.

Betting Underdogs: Take the Points or Bet the Moneyline?

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

When betting on an underdog, should you bet the moneyline with the expectation of the upset occurring or should you take the points for the value of the insurance of your team losing but staying inside the number? While there is a lower probability of the underdog winning the game, the oddsmakers account for this with progressively better payouts for those dogs that do pull the upset. In a previous article, I argued that thinking about why you are making the sports bet can help guide the answer to questions like this. I identified three reasons to bet on sports: (1) To Have Fun; (2) To Make Money; (3) To Prove You are Right. I strongly approve of the first two reasons — but I am very worried about those motivated by the bettors looking for validation to prove something from their financial investment.In this case, if you are betting simply to have fun, then the answer is simple: bet in a way that will maximize your enjoyment. Do you want the comfort of some insurance by taking the points? Then take the points! Do you just want to see if your underdog can pull the upset? Then bet the moneyline. If fun is your motivation, then there is not a wrong answer.There is a wrong answer if your goal in betting is to make money. However, it can very tricky to determine the correct answer regarding which bet will be more profitable. The bettor needs to accurately assess the long-term odds and payouts from the situation. Let's look at two examples. In Week 17 in the NFL, bettors have the option at BetOnline at the moment of taking the New York Giants as a +1 point underdog against the Dallas Cowboys at a -110 price or as moneyline underdog priced at +120. Let’s use $100 as the baseline bet. Moneyline bettors save $10 per bet if investing $100 as compared to point spread bettors investing $110 to win $100. However, what happens to the moneyline bettor if Dallas wins by a 17-16 score? Not only do they lose their $100 bet, but they also missed out on pushing the bet from which the point spread bettor benefited. For the moneyline bettor to be profitable in comparison to the point spread bettor, the final score would have to not end at +1 for the dog less than 20% of the time. The moneyline bettor is adding an extra $20 per bet versus the point spread bettor. However, it takes five straight winning bets to neutralize the dog losing by 1 point just once. Let’s look at the Chicago Bears getting +5 points versus the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. BetOnline offers the Bears at the moneyline price of +195. Using $100 as the baseline, moneyline bettors save $10 per loss versus the Chicago backers investing $110 to win $100 taking the +5 points. Out of ten bets, let's say the Bears lose by at least 6 points five times. The point spread bettor is down $50 dollars to the moneyline bettor. But if Chicago covers the point spread the other five times but only pulls the upset twice, the point spread bettor is better off. The point spread bettor wins $500 from those five times the Bears cover. Subtract the $50 in juice the point spread better invested at $110 that moneyline bettor avoided with $100 bets. That is a net of $450. The moneyline bettor wins $390 when Chicago pulls the upset twice. But they still lose the three other $100 bets when the Bears cover the point spread without pulling the upset. Their $90 is dwarfed by the point spread bettor’s $450 for a net loss in all ten bets of -$360. Not even a third Bears upset makes up for the net discrepancy since the $585 in winning tickets get reduced by $200 in the two Chicago point spread covers where they did not win the game as well. It would take two more Bears’ upset victories to turn the tables with the moneyline bettor generating $780 from those four winning tickets minus only one $100 losing ticket where Chicago covered the point spread for a net of $680 and a nice $230 profit over the point spread bettor.Got all that? It gets complicated. And the complexity is magnified because even the most technical sports gambler and handicapper are reduced to making estimated guesses regarding the probability of an upset. At least poker players have the benefit of more precise math when making decisions regarding implied pot odds. Frankly, if a sports bettor thinks they have something close to precise odds on the likelihood of an upset (versus a point spread cover), I would be very skeptical of that person. This sounds like someone trying to prove they are right about the dog being good (or the favorite being bad). I would not trust their math. One of the reasons I do not like the motivation to “prove oneself right” as the reason to make a sports bet is that emotions are involved. I consider emotions as a threat to making sound decisions. This is the reason I always prefer taking the point spread with underdog bets rather than taking the dog with the moneyline. I can live with not making even more money on my underdog bets. However, I am much more likely to go tilt if my underdog loses the game outright on a bad beat or buzzer-beater. I want to avoid negative emotions. And winning feels much better than losing. I will take more winning tickets even if some of them are not as rewarding as the occasional underdog winning outright. Winning promotes momentum and good cheer — and those are emotional conditions that help lead to better decisions for the next bet. For me, that is the route for more fun and to make more money.Best of luck for us — Frank.

Why Bet on Sports? Two Good Reasons (and Exposing One Bad One).

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

If winning a sports bet was easy, then everybody would be doing it. It is a great feeling to “love” a situation because of an insight you have on a particular game -- and then get validated by being right with the bonus of being rewarded by doubling your money. Unfortunately, easy wins are not the norm for those engaged in the long haul. When a gambler or handicapper goes on the hunt for wins on the daily sports card, the games available combined with the betting options available can seem overwhelming. Should I take the money-line instead of the point spread? What about parlaying those two plays together? Maybe teasing those two plays together would be better? I have found that answering some fundamental questions helps guide my betting decisions on a day-to-day basis. A most basic query for sports gamblers is this: Why are you betting on sports? This sentiment may sound like Jerry Maguire after eating a bad piece of cold pizza in the middle of the night. Yet finding an honest answer to this question can be quite helpful in guiding what game you bet on, what types of bets you make, and how much money you invest. I think there are three reasons to bet on sports. These reasons can overlap — but identifying what is most important for your motivation to make a bet can be quite helpful. The first two reasons below are good ones. I would be very cautious if you are motivated primarily by the third reason. (1) Bet on sports to have fun. This is a great reason. Hopefully, this means that any potential losses are manageable financially and not soul-crushing emotionally. Recreational betting to increase the enjoyment of watching a game on television or following the ESPN sports ticket can really get the dopamine firing away.(2) Bet on sports to make money. This is another great reason. However, accruing profits often means eschewing the fun-factor. It may require avoiding action on Monday Night Football. It also likely means that you should avoid the teasers, parlays, and other novelty bets that (generally) are offering less betting value than a simple straight against-the-spread bet.(3) Bet on sports to prove you are right. This is the dangerous motivation. For starters, making a prediction and then being right about does not require a financial investment. Scream away about it on Twitter or at the bar (then again, please don't do either of those because no one cares). The problem with the bettor looking to prove themselves right is that they will never find the validation they are searching for from a winning ticket. That bettor will likely continue to chase bets in the futile search to prove themselves to the world (or to themselves). The bets contain an emotional component. If you are going to bet with emotion, you should only do it for fun. A gambler betting on emotion is a gambler poised to lose. In future articles, I will get specific in how my “Mission Statement” regarding “why to bet on sports” guides me to make certain bets and avoid other types of bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.

How Many QB Hits Are Too Many? Assessing Joe Burrow's Season-Ending Injury

Monday, Nov 30, 2020

When Joe Burrow suffered his season-ending in Week 11 of the NFL season with a gruesome leg injury, many observers thought that this outcome was inevitable given the punishment the rookie was consistently facing. In hindsight, the statistics are staggering regarding how the Cincinnati Bengals treated their franchise quarterback. Burrow endured his injury in the third quarter against a Washington team with one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. He had already attempted 34 passes at that point of the game, while being on track to approach 50 throws in the game. These efforts were all for a team that was 2-6-1 at the time, and far out of the AFC playoff race. Burrow’s rookie season ended with him attempting 404 passes in his 8 1/2 games played. But it is not just his pass attempts that is the concern. Burrow was playing behind a suspect offensive line that made a season-ending injury a significant risk. Burrow was sacked 32 times. However, sacks are an insufficient measurement of the damage he was absorbing. Burrow also took 53 hits in the pocket. When then adding the 34 rushing attempts he made where he was tackled, the result is that Burrow had been subject to 125 significant hits from opposing defenders in just over half a season. Is approaching 250 hits a sustainable number for a quarterback to stay healthy?There was intriguing research done on the toll of high-usage in bell-cow running backs in the early 2000s. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders dubbed the phrase “the Curse of 370” when detailing the tendency for running backs who had 370 touches from rushing attempts and receptions had on the future productivity (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2004/ricky-williams-retires). I find it surprising that similar research has not been undertaken to attempt to identify if there is a correlation between hits on the quarterback and injury. To be fair, I may be unaware of such research. Such work is not being addressed in the higher-profile pieces I have read arguing for passing the football in seemingly every instance despite the ancillary risk this strategy has in putting the quarterback’s health at risk. In researching this article, I did come across a promising fantasy football site that does attempt to measure this data: https://sportsinjurypredictor.com. However, I would be interested in research that attempted to determine that theoretical magic number regarding the number of hits a quarterback endures before the risk of injury seems to significantly rise. Jamey Eisenberg made some conclusions regarding running backs for his CBS Fantasy Football work in 2014 that illuminates how similar work could be undertaken regarding hits on the quarterback: “We went back and looked at the past 10 years for running backs who had 400 touches in a season, including the playoffs, and found 27 occasions where it happened for 17 different running backs. Of those 27 times, only five -- Edgerrin James (2004), LaDainian Tomlinson (2005), James again (2005), Adrian Peterson (2009) and Ray Rice (2011) -- produced an increase in Fantasy points the following season, and you can see all the data in our chart below. The 22 other examples where a running back hit 400 touches over that span showed varying results -- all negative. Two running backs -- Tiki Barber and Ricky Williams -- retired following consecutive seasons with 400 touches. And nine times a running back suffered an injury -- Arian Foster (2013), Peterson (2013), Michael Turner (2009), Steven Jackson (2007), Larry Johnson (2007), Shaun Alexander (2006), Clinton Portis (2006), Curtis Martin (2005) and Jamal Lewis (2004) -- that caused him to miss games following a 400-touch campaign. Some of those injuries could be attributed to the heavy workload the year before.” (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/offseason-extra-the-year-after-400-plus-touches/)Identifying a theoretical number of hits absorbed where the risks of injury significantly increased for a quarterback would be fascinating. It would certainly better inform the debates regarding offensive run versus pass strategy. And this level of scholarship might have compelled the Bengals to run the ball a bit more to save their star rookie quarterback from sustaining an injury that may put his 2021-22 season into jeopardy. Best of luck — Frank.

"Let Russ Cook?" - Confirming Some Priors From Last Month

Monday, Nov 30, 2020

I wrote last month about some of the negative consequences to the “Let Russ Cook” mantra coming from many NFL observers and Russell Wilson fans regarding the Seattle Seahawks opened up their passing game in the first half of their games. The Seahawks went on a two-game losing streak in the middle of November with losses against Buffalo and the Los Angeles Rams, which were Wilson’s two worst games of the season. Wilson was responsible for seven turnovers himself, including four interceptions. The conventional wisdom was that the coaching staff was asking him to do too much. Head coach Pete Carroll appears to have taken a step back from the “Let Russ Cook” philosophy in their 28-21 victory on Thursday Night Football on November 19th. For the second time all season, Seattle ran the ball more than they passed — they had 31 rush attempts for 165 yards, with Wilson completing 23 of his 28 pass attempts. He did not commit a turnover. The commitment to running the ball also helped them control possession of 35:07 minutes of that game, which kept Kyler Murray off the field. Arizona managed only 314 total yards in what was the fewest yards the Seattle defense had allowed all season. Those 314 yards were also the second-lowest mark that the Cardinals had generated in a game up to that point of the season. That performance is evidence of two of the benefits of running the football that too many in the football analytics community fail to appreciate when critiquing the “establish the run” mentality. First, running the football lowers the propensity of the quarterback turning the ball over. Fewer pass attempts are fewer opportunities to throw interceptions. And the quarterback will fumble the ball less if the ball is not in this hand. Of course, the player with the football can still turn the ball over with a fumble mistake, but it would be interesting to study if quarterbacks in the pocket are more susceptible to a fumble than running backs. Running backs expect to be hit while quarterbacks focused on passing the ball are vulnerable to blindside hits. Second, running the football burns time off the clock, which can lead to fewer offensive possessions from the opposing offense. Murray (or Deshaun Watson, et al) can not score from the sidelines. And defensive players who asked to play fewer snaps retain more energy at the end of the game. Some defensive coaches make the case that defensive players only have about 50 plays in them before their productivity begins to decline. That would be another intriguing area to study. Seattle goes into their Monday Night Football game at Philadelphia to conclude Week Twelve of the season with 33 sacks on the quarterback. That mark ranks 30th in the league. The Seahawks are also 31st in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate on offense. With quarterbacks like Joe Burrow out the year with season-ending injuries, asking Russ to cook a little less may also be the best way he can still be in the kitchen come playoff time. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Go For It on 4th Down? We Need Better Analytics!

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

When Mike McCarthy was auditioning for a new head coaching gig after being let go by the Green Bay Packers, he made it known that he spent his year away from the game camped out in his basement lair studying tape and immersing himself in “analytics.” After Jerry Jones hired him as his next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, McCarthy made it seem that he had added the new-age analytics to his arsenal of coaching weapons. This new-found knowledge was tested right away in his first game as coach of the Cowboys. McCarthy found his team trailing by a 20-17 score in the fourth quarter. When the Dallas offense stalled at 4th-and-3 on the Los Rams’ 13-yard line, McCarthy bypassed attempting the 30-yard field goal since the “analytics” on 4th down attempts apparently provided a one-size-fits-all answer that required going for the 1st down to keep a potential touchdown drive alive. Unfortunately for the Cowboys faithful, Dallas failed to convert the 1st down and eventually lost the game by the same 20-17 score. I'm agnostic as to whether or not Mike McCarthy made the right or wrong call going for it at 4th-and-3 rather than kick the game-tying FG. However, the litany of defenses for his decision exposed one of the most flawed applications of analytics in football. Attempting to apply the "historical" probability odds of the success-rate on 4th-and-3 (or any other 4th down situation) to the Cowboys' specific chances in that spot represents deductive logic run amok.Here a just a few intangibles that would impact Dallas' success rate at that moment: (1) their field position; (2) the moment in the game; (3) the quality of the opponent’s defense; (3) their credible 3-yard rush play options; (4) their credible 3-yard pass play options; (5) the injury status/health of key offensive players. Each one of these considerations either impacts the specific success rate of the Cowboys’ 4th down play at that moment or contextualizes the risk calculus regarding the ramifications of the probability matrix if they settled for the field goal attempt. These intangibles expose the need for more precise data to identify qualitative factors that contextualize the "actual" probability. Head coaches conduct this additional level of analysis. And this inductive logic is even considered conventional wisdom in other situations! What are the "NFL history" odds for the probability of making a 45-yard field goal? 60%? Imagine that argument trotted out in a situation for a kicker who was struggling through out that very game in making chip-shot field goals (as was the case the next night for Monday Night Football when the Tennessee's place kicker Stephen Gostowksi made a game-winning field goal after missing kicks earlier in the game)?If the NFL history for success rate on 4th-and-3 is, say, 51% (guessing), that does not mean the Cowboys' had that same probability in that specific (statistical) moment. Maybe it was higher!It is indicative of football analytics still being in its infancy stage that this deductive logic is advanced so heavily. Imagine this argument being made after a hypothetical World Series moment: "Stolen base success rate is 55% -- so take your chances with (the relatively slow and non-base stealer) Cody Bellinger stealing 2nd (with two outs)!"Football coaches may, in fact, be better served by being more aggressive on 4th down. Citing general league-wide data that is even attempting to get more specific to being analogous to the situation at hand is flawed. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Problems in the Kitchen when you “Let Russ Cook!”

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

Seattle Seahawks fans, as well as the “you already lost if you did not pass on first down” football analytics crowd, have been vocal with their claims regarding how good that team would be if they passed the ball more in past seasons. This sentiment has evolved into the catchphrase “Let Russ Cook.”Yet when these critics call on the “old-fashioned” Seahawks' offense to run less and pass more (as offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer did in the first two games of the 2018 season before head coach Pete Carroll intervened), they typically fail to address Carroll's reasons for wanting to run the ball more. The direct and indirect benefits of running the football are under-appreciated by the football analytics community. Their arguments would strengthen if they better engaged with the rationale of (Super Bowl-winning) head coaches who find subtle advantages in running the football that transcends the yards-per-carry metric.First, “Russ can't cook” if Russ is on the sidelines with an injury. Carroll is very cognizant of the number of hits made on the quarterback. He has this number tracked by his coaching staff. Carroll speaks of "not taking the sugar" when it comes to the short-term allure of relying on Wilson to make yet another pass. Every drop back risks another quarterback hit. Have there been studies in the analytic community regarding the correlation between the number of QB hits and injuries? I have not seen any (and I pay attention). These stats are not cited in the "you already lost if you ran on first down" genre of analytics.I would be surprised if this area was not being studied by internal analytics departments. Is there is a threshold where QB hits correlate with a higher risk of injury (like the 400 carry threshold pointing to RB regression the next season)? That seems to be a fascinating subject to investigate. Second, Carroll thinks his team has a better chance of winning close games if he can manage the game to put his coaching staff and Wilson in that position. This belief runs counter to the conventional wisdom in the analytics community that winning close games is random.In general, that conventional wisdom makes sense: close games tend to be decided on a small number of plays (or decisions including by the refs) that would seem to even out over time. However, there is some interesting work being done in basketball suggesting winning close games can be a skill. Certainly, the eye-test watching Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, et al, supports the notion that "you don't want those QBs to have the ball last." Do these QBs behave differently in crunch time? For Wilson, that becomes the time he is allowed to "cook."What is fascinating about Seattle is that they began a rebuild for the '18-19 season after missing the playoffs. Rather than eating a couple of losing seasons, they made the playoffs. One would think that Carroll would get credit for "reloading" on the fly. Instead, implicit in the "Let Russ Cook" argument is that this team was closer to winning a Super Bowl these last two seasons than suffering 6-10 records. In college basketball, Carroll's tactics would elevate him to the genius level in the conventional wisdom of that sport.Now in Year Three of the rebuild, I was of the belief that Seattle would pass more this season — just as they did when they were making Super Bowl runs with Wilson (with a better defense and overall roster). I await the 538 dot com article where credit is taken for Seattle’s shift in tactics.I'm not a Carroll stan. I have issues with his approach to the offensive line. Rather, I am a stan for answering arguments -- both explicit and implicit. Fortunately, the misguided conventional wisdom on the Seahawks has contributed to point spread value in the last two seasons. So that has been good!As we now approach the halfway point of the NFL season, what if one of the unintended consequences of "Let Russ Cook" was a decline in play by the Seattle Seahawks defense? More early-down passing shortens Seattle's time of possession on drives. Consider these defensive numbers:2020 Seattle Defense (after Week Six): 27.0 PPG, 471.2 total YPG. 6.4 Yards-Per-Play allowed. 2020 Offense Average Time of Possession: 28:21. 2019 Seattle Defense: 24.9 PPG, 381.7 total YPG. 6.2 Yards-Per-Play allowed 2019 Offense Average Time of Possession: 31:26.Last year, the Seahawks had a 30/32 average run-to-pass play ratio during the regular season for a 51.6% pass rate per offensive snap. Now in the Let Russ Cook era, Seattle enters Week Eight of the NFL season with an average run-to-pass play ration of 25/36 fora 59.0% pass rate per snap offensive snap.Some defensive coaches claim that their players only have about 50 plays in them per game. When defensive players go beyond that point, then their energy level begins to decline. Of course, these defensive coaches can not code R to save their lives. Was "establishing the run" Carroll's method to elevate a mediocre defense? A closing thought from two-time Super Bowl champ (but failed R coder) Jimmie Johnson: "How you protect a defense is you eliminate the negative plays, and you increase your time of possession by running the football." Best of luck for us — Frank.

Soccer Handicapping Analytics: Expected Goals (xG)

Tuesday, Jul 14, 2020

Analytics can be a powerful tool in the handicapper toolbox when assessing potential value versus bookmaker odds. While statistical analysis has existed with sports since someone started keeping score, the analytics movement examines data to foster a better understanding of the sports we study and follow rather than relying solely on traditional statistics. Often this data can be more predictive of future activity and results than the conventional statistics. This offers exciting possibilities for sports bettors with the opportunity to deploy more accurate predictive data that a majority of the bettors in the market are not using. In baseball, the two most prevalent statistics associated with starting pitchers are Win-Loss record and Earned Runs Average. A statistical analysis of Win-Loss record determined that those numbers had little predictive value for that starting pitcher’s future performance. Data analysis went even deeper to discover that Fielding Independent Performance data such as strikeouts, walks, and batted ball activity offer a more accurate perspective of how a starting pitcher will perform in the future. Statistics such as FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are attempts to provide more accurate descriptive and predictive measurements of how many runs a pitcher allows. In soccer, the idea of expected goals serves a similar vision. Goals scored and goals allowed may be definitive in determining a final score but that does not mean that those numbers are the most predictive regarding future scores. What are other statistics that are important in scoring goals? Most goals are scored by shooting at the net in open play (with exceptions being penalty kicks and opponents scoring own goals which do not appear to be reliable events that can be created without luck and the random behavior of an opponent). The more shots a team takes at the net, the more likely they will score. And the better quality of these shots, the more likely they will get past a keeper. Expected goals is a metric that determines a statistical probability on every scoring chance a team generates in a match. In this adventure of quantitative analysis, similar scoring situations are logged to determine a scoring probability from a deep data set in a way similar to measurements that predict the accuracy of an NBA shooter attempting a 22-foot corner 3-pointer. Shot attempts that have an empirical success rate of 35% or higher have been categorized as Big Chances. By reassessing a soccer match from the expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA) given the activity and nature of all the shot attempts in a match. If xG analysis offers a better evaluation regarding how a team is playing, then it could provide a more precise way to measure subsequent action. For example, Southampton entered match week 32 of the 2019-20 English Premier League season with 38 goals scored. However, their xG of 44.20 suggested that they should have scored at least six more goals on the season given the average likelihood of events regarding their scoring opportunities. Bettors that decided that this information was evidence of the Saints covering the goal-line spread with their match at Watford or that the final score would finish over the 2.5 total were rewarded with Southampton’s 3-1 victory. Armed with expected goals and expected goals allowed data for both teams in an upcoming match can offer handicappers a powerful weapon in exposing the hidden value against the posted side and totals numbers of the bookmaker. But these potential strengths of using expected goals data do come with some caveats. There are some disadvantages to relying on expected goals data exclusively. For starters, one should not consider this objective data. At the beginning of the statistical endeavor, there is a human being assessing and categorizing shot attempts (even if eventually this analysis is then replicated by artificial intelligence). The mathematical formulas are all creations by human beings that are deployed in the quantitative analysis. As long as we live in a pre-Singularity world, this phenomenon is inevitable. And it is ok! Just remember that with the human eye and the touch comes the possibility of human error. There are competing expected goals systems in the marketplace. While ERA and field goal percentage are agreed upon statistics, xG remains a proprietary activity with different agents developing and propagating their numbers. Second, the concept of overachieving or underachieving can be misused. Expected goals attempt to determine the most likely outcomes. But not all outcomes are created equal. Lionel Messi is going to score more goals than Glenn Murray dribbling up the left-wing and talking a shot from 30 yards out. Ederson is more likely to make a spectacular save in that situation than Tom Heaton. While xG attempts to minimize outlier efforts, some players have earned their outlier status on both ends of the equation. Betting against Real Madrid (or taking more Unders) because their number of goals scored seems to be overachieving their expected goals may be foolhardy because they have Lionel Freaking Messi! Similarly, banking on bad teams to start playing closer to their expected points calculation (xPTS — a formula attempting to incorporate xG and xGA to reproduce their expected points for the season) may be foolhardy because that team may truly embody the outlier bad xG and xGA numbers. Third, be careful to not confuse recent results as overachievement (or underachievement) when what may be going on is the in-season improvement (or decline) of a team’s quality of play. Teams do get better (or worse) as the season moves forward. Coaching matters. Players improve. Injuries sometimes have disproportionate impacts. Teams can suffer from a loss of morale. An assumption in analytics that attempts to describe past results for predictive value moving forward is that those past results remain a credible assessment of the team’s quality. Yet team quality can be fluid. Fourth, regression to the mean is a long-term expectation so finding discrepancies between current results with expected goals results may not immediately produce dividends. Be patient. And remember what John Maynard Keynes said about the long-run (to paraphrase, we are all dead). Waiting for what may seem to be inevitable regression can be Fool’s Gold. Last, keep in mind that because the margins are thinner in soccer, the impact of expected goals is smaller. In basketball, identifying discrepancies between an expected score and a projected score using Points-Per-Possession analytics can be more fruitful since a college basketball game averages around 130 combined points per game with an NBA averaging over 200 combined points per game. Because soccer generally sees one zero to six combined goals scored per match, there are fewer scoring opportunities for which the discrepancies exposed via expected goals analysis translates into an actual difference in score. Your team can dominate their opponent on the pitch but still settle for a 1-1 draw. Because there are more scoring opportunities in basketball, the expected value identified from Points-Per-Possession analysis has more opportunities to demonstrate itself. These caveats aside, expected goals is a valuable tool to help the handicapping of soccer. Despite Liverpool winning the 2019-20 English Premier League championship, the xPTS analysis still projects Manchester City to be the better team this season. Those of us that used that information to help to conclude side with Man City in their July 2nd meeting were rewarded with a 4-0 victory. Relying on expected goals analysis alone will probably not be profitable. However, adding expected goals into the array of angles from which to determine value relative to the numbers that the bookmakers have posted should make successful soccer handicapping even more lucrative. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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