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Hot Streaks and Achievements

*67%* 8 of 12 *59%* 24 of 41, *57%* 89 of 155, *55%* 347 of 628 All-Sports, *62%* 48 of 77 25*s, 4/4
*60%* 65 of 109 CBB runs, *74%* 31 of 42 CBB Totals through 4/4
17 PGA Tour winners in the last 89 reports (TWO in '25); *63%* 54 of 86 props run through 4/4

Biography

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his A-List clients.

Active since: 1997

Location: Las Vegas, NV

Frank Sawyer founded Hollywood Sports in 1997 at the urging of his celebrity clients, who recognized (and were greatly benefiting from) Frank’s unique handicapping skill set. Over the last 23 years, Frank’s had such spectacular success — with both his picks and his ever-expanding network of clients — that he relocated his business to Las Vegas, Nevada.

Certainly, Frank has the deep knowledge to find the edge in the numbers, but perhaps his greatest edge results from his drive to outwork his competition. And Frank’s hard work and research is instantly illustrated by the extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles.

Also at the core of Frank’s success is a proven methodology. His model starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles, along with the latest in cutting edge analytics, to identify value in the betting line.

Frank believes long-term success not only involves a continuous deep-dive into sports that he covers, but also an expansion into new events that can provide additional tools to use in his handicapping toolbox — with the ultimate goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years, to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey (along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer) that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997.

Frank uses a 10*, 20*, and 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet; 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; while 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated selections with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. Frank’s signature play is his “A-List” release, which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities. For Frank’s futures reports, or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which represents his best value play relative to the odds for the event; and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog which offers value with its potential big payout.

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Nate Oats' Commitment to The Analytics Lowers Alabama's Potential Once Again

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Alabama’s Nate Oats is a fine head coach. From his four seasons with Buffalo to now six years with the Crimson Tide, he has demonstrated that a commitment to the foundational elements of the contributions from the analytical community can raise the floor regarding expectations of success for a basketball team. But I worry that a rigid devotion to these principles can also impose a ceiling regarding regarding what a basketball team can achieve. The case in point is Alabama’s Elite Eight encounter with Duke this season. The Crimson’s style under Oats has been consistent. On offense, his teams play fast and take almost half of their shots from behind the arc. On defense, his teams defend the perimeter and attempt to protect the rim. This approach is gospel to the analytics community, who never tire of lecturing the world that three points are more than two points and shots at the rim are higher percentage than midrange jump shots inside the arc. They get paid for such insight, which is one of the many reasons I mock many of these folks across all sports as invoking The Analytics. We get it. Not sure if this revelation reinvented the wheel as much as the price for the information. And, as Mike D’Antoni can attest, it is far from certain that simply reading The Big Book of Analytics (written but never updated in 2016) produces championships. The Crimson Tide defense continues to be their weak link. On paper, they looked good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allowed their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots, which ranks 161st in the nation heading into their showdown with the Blue Devils — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses. Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they ranked 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummeted to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they ranked 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams. The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They had surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games before their Elite Eight game with Duke — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats, including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. And against Duke in the Elite Eight this year, they got blasted by an 85-65 score. The Blue Devils made 30 of their 57 (52.6%) shots — including 24 of their 43 shots from inside the arc. When opponents are scoring 48 points on 55.8% shooting from their 2-point shots before 3-point shooting and free throws, it will be very tough for Oats and The Analytics to overcome it. Best of luck — Frank.

My Secret Weapon in Attacking College Basketball Totals: Opponent Possession Average

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

One of the tools in my proverbial toolbox when handicapping college basketball over/unders is Defensive Opponent Possession Average. This metric took on a starring role for the Elite Eight game in the NCAA Tournament between Tennessee and Houston — and it helped me determine that the situation would be my 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year.The Volunteers and Cougars ranked 351st and 354th out of the 364 teams in Division I, with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. For comparison's sake, the average possession length in Division I is 17.6 seconds. What does this mean, in practice? I see two distinct ramifications regarding shot quality. First, teams who shoot earlier in the shot clock tend to do so because they were able to generate a good shooting opportunity. Teams with longer opponents' average possession length are not giving up quality looks early in the shot clock. Second, the closer the team with the basketball gets to a shot clock violation, the more likely they are to force up a bad shot. So, Tennessee and Houston are two of the best teams in the nation when it comes to coaxing their opponents to take their first shot at the rim later in the shot clock. This helps Under plays for two reasons: (1) The longer a possession, the fewer overall possessions in a game. (2) The quality of the shots tend be worse if a team is taking longer to take a shot because of the play of the defense. But just like with any other angle, I would not endorse an Under play simply because it involved two teams with impressive numbers with this metric. To a certain extent, the number already takes this dynamic into account since it is represented by the team’s defensive efficiency numbers. I am most effective when taking multiple different perspectives into account to come to a conclusion. In the case of Tennessee versus Houston, there were several important factors and pieces of evidence that led me to bet and endorse the Under, despite the Total being set in the low 120s.Tennessee allowed the Kentucky Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in their previous game in the Sweet 16, which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting, which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc, which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game, which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row, which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee was once again an elite defensive team that ranked third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also ranked fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They presented a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they led the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc going into that game. But that mark did decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers had an elite perimeter defense that ranked second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranked 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they were scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers had played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who were making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They had played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They had played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games, including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers had played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Purdue Boilermakers in their victory in the Sweet 16. That effort continued a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts was perhaps not back to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cougars are the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They ranked 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they ranked second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They were holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting, which was resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee had only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also had an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play. The Volunteers ranked 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number did speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stopping the opponent’s offensive rebounding. But those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston had played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They had played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they had played 13 of these games Under the Total.If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. These are the reasons why Hollywood Sports was on the Under with a strong 25* endorsement — which we won with the Cougars’ 69-50 victory. Best of luck — Frank.

Super Bowl Autoposy: In-Denial or Don't Believe the Philly Hype?

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

For the first time in four seasons, we lost our NFL Game of the Year — each selection in the Super Bowl — when the Philadelphia Eagles thumped the Kansas City Chiefs by a 40-22 score. I concede that the score was not indicative of how much of a blowout that game was. However, three weeks later, I remain steadfast that it was an outlier game and score. I admit that I could be in complete denial. If so, I hope I discover enlightenment in my deep dives on both the Eagles and Chiefs in late summer when I do my foundational work for the 2024-2025 NFL season. Admittedly, something was nagging me about the situation for this game. I usually post my Report the morning after the championship games but this year only posted them the Friday late night two days before. Despite that, I remain convinced that ff these teams played ten times, I think we saw the outlier worst case scenario for KC. In hindsight, I think I may have underestimated the negative impact of complacency from defending champions — but I convinced myself the opportunity to three-peat overwhelmed those concerns regarding how defending champions can tend to let their guard down. Watching the game, I think Mahomes played the worst game I have ever seen him play — even after the offensive line issues. I do not even pretend to be an Xs and Os expert — but the play-calling had me scratching my head to address the offensive line issues and I have since read commentary from more informed sources sharing this view. I was well aware of the offensive line issues all season. But when they moved Joe Thuney to left tackle, the protection got significantly better (albeit at the expense of their elite inside running since Thuney was no longer at left guard). I double-checked afterwards: Kansas City had given up six sacks combined in their previous four games (excluding the Denver Week 18 game when the starers rested) before the Super Bowl. If Jayden Daniels could put up 36 points (and the Rams put up 405 yards with their suspect offensive line in the playoffs), then I thought Kansas City with two weeks to prepare would be fine. I was convinced Kansas City would play up-tempo to tire out the defensive line that started playing better only when Fangio cut down the snaps of all the Georgia draft picks who had been underachieving. But it didn’t happen. And Marquise Brown did not get as many snaps. I know Fangio’s two-high safety look takes away the deep ball, but you need Brown out there for it to take away the damn deep ball to open up space in the middle. I considered the officiating narrative to be 95% Hindsight Bias and 5% “Michael Jordan Knows How to Play the Refs”. I still do. I argued in my Report for the Super Bowl that the close wins were a feature rather than a bug (for starters, at worst, it's an argument that KC should have lost more games — not that they were due to get blown out). I thought the collection of skill position talent that was all finally healthy was the best Mahomes had at his disposal since the Tyreek Hill days — so I did not even think the “too many close wins” narrative applied to what was going to happen in February football. New England, the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson Seahawks, and the Jordan Bulls all made a living winning close games. Those dynasties were operating at a different level where they were confident that they had the talent and brain trust to win close games.Finally, I remain steadfast that Philly is mediocre — and one of the worst Super Bowl champions in our lifetime. I know there is talk about a dynasty already, so I may be anxious to fade them (unless my summer sober deep dive illuminates something I missed very badly). I think the Eagles got lucky to avoid Detroit. Their best win was against Baltimore before the Super Bowl — and they avoided Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, and even Minnesota. To quote my Super Bowl Report after doing a bunch of work to expose all of the Eagles' close wins: "Their losses were to solid but flawed playoff teams, Washington and Tampa Bay, along with Atlanta early in the season. I appreciate their defense became better when rookie Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup with their base defense shifting to a 4-2-5 nickel look. But their season-long defensive stats benefitted from two games apiece against the New York Giants and Dallas (combined 10-24 record) along with contests against cupcakes like Cleveland, Carolina, New Orleans, and Jacksonville who combined for a 17-51 record. The season-ending injury last month to Nakobe Dean should not be underestimated either since he was the jack-of-all-trades linebacker that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was featuring in his blitz packages. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be healthier with two weeks to rest — but I am not sure he will be at full strength still regarding his mobility (outside the tush-push) given the knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. I worry that the Eagles' passing game is limited — they only passed for more than 236 yards five times this season (and two of those games were in the first month of the season). What if Hurts is only a B+ passer? Sure, I don’t want to punish Philly for evolving into a run-first team when Saquon Barkley had a career year. But if Philadelphia gets into a situation where they have to pass — either because they fall behind by more double-digits (remember their scoring woes in the first quarter) or because it is late in the game — can Hurts win the game with his arm in a facet of his game that has been off going back to the second half of last season? And this raises another point: I’m not sure this Eagles squad is battle-tested. While they were 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession, only four of their victories were against teams who made the playoffs (Washington twice, LA Rams, Green Bay). Remember all those cupcakes they got to play? Their remaining five wins decided by eight points or less were against New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and the New York Giants who all failed to win more than five games. I worry that after playing five straight games at home, the Eagles are playing their first game away from Lincoln Financial Field since December 22nd (a loss at Washington).”I would like to see these teams play a few more times. What happens if Mahomes does not spot Philly 14 points in the first half? That was all but insurmountable. If Kansas City had the opportunity to tie or take the lead in the opening possession of the second half, is the game script simply adhering to how they win most of their games? How does the first quarter go if, after admittedly getting a favorable initial call from the officials, the next five or so coin-flip decisions from the officials do not all go the Eagles' way? Two weeks of working the refs — which is not to say that the Chiefs may have been due (but Hindsight Bias from haters) — but it does question the validity of the blowout. It was a nightmare first half and Mahomes was uncharacteristically awful with his accuracy in those opening three drives even before the pick-six and all-but second pick-six. When Kansas City cannot run the football, they start panicking, the Eagles front smells blood, cue the blowout. Maybe that is lots of Copamine. Thank God the Over cashed. But I am not ready to overreact to that final score when it comes to assessing these two teams next season. Best of luck — Frank.

The Roller Coaster Ride of Aston Viilla in the English Premier League

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

Aston Villa is underachieving in the English Premier League relative to the deeper metrics. They are tied for ninth place in the table with 42 points (albeit with one more match played than Fulham who shares that spot)— but their expected points rise to 42.40. They have scored 40 goals — but their expected goals (xG) rise to 48.990. They have surrendered 45 goals — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is slightly lower at 44.58. Aston Villa has performed better in their return to the UEFA Champions League this year where they earned one of the top eight seeds and a bye into the Final 16 Knockout Stage — and they have a very winnable showdown with Club Brugge on deck so a Quarterfinals or better finish is very much in the card for Emery’s men. The Villans are relatively healthy right now — and they added an important cog for their attack last month by acquiring forward Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United with the option to buy. He gives the starting XI another viable scorer to complement Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers. Aston Villa has been very tough to beat at home where they have lost only once in their last 24 matches in the EPL. This season, they have an W7-D7-L1 mark at home against EPL competition — and their 28 points betray the expected 31.06 points from the predictive analytics. They have 25 goals at home — but their xG is 31.94. They have surrendered 18 goals — but their xGA drops to 15.77. Aston Villa wanted to avenge a 3-0 loss at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea back on December 1st — but that was at the peak of the Blues best stretch all season when they were in much better health. The Villans had won seven of their last 11 matches at home at Villa Park with the other four matches resulting in draws. They came away in that showdown against the Blues with a 2-1 upset victory on February 22nd. Aston Villa surrendered the first goal in the ninth minute but finally leveled the score in the 57th minute in the second half when Marco Asensio scored from a Rashford pass who had just come on as a substitute. Asensio then scored the game-winner from another assist from Rashford in the 89th minute. But they followed that up with a 4-1 loss at Crystal Palace in EPL action on February 25th. The Villans have a W4-D2-L7 mark on the road in the English Premier League with 14 points. Their expected points drop to 11.33 in their 13 matches on the road in the EPL. Aston Villa did return home to beat Cardiff City by a 2-0 score in their latest match in the FA Cup on Friday, February 28th.These recent results only continue to suggest that the Villans are dangerous at home but reckless when on the road. They play their opening round match in the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League on the road against Club Brugge on Tuesday. Best of luck — Frank.

More Reckless Play-Calling Slays the Lions in the Playoffs Again

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

If one could there was one play that defined the Detroit Lions under head coach Dan Campbell, it was during a possession in the fourth quarter that Tom Brady described as their most important of the season. Trailing by a 38-28 score midway through the quarter, the Lions could still pull within a field goal with a touchdown drive and force rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to execute in what would have been a deafening madhouse at Ford Field. Given all the previous mistakes Detroit had made, their prospects looked pretty good after the big hole they dug for themselves. With a veteran quarterback with Super Bowl experience, it was time to get serious and get down to business. Instead, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could not resist opening up his big book of “Look at Me” trick plays and decided that it was the appropriate time to put the ball in the hands of a wide receiver to throw a pass for yet another Gotcha! gimmick play. Unfortunately, for the Lions’ faithful, Jameson Williams threw an interception that all but sealed their fate in an eventual 45-28 upset loss. Asking a wide receiver who has been suspended twice in his career — one for gambling and one for PEDs — to be the steward of the football in a passing play in the most important drive of the season, what could go wrong?Campbell knew the play was coming. His headset was on. He could have vetoed it. Ultimately, that ill-advised play call was on him. But Campbell didn’t veto the play, because his identity is defined by recklessness disguised as aggressiveness. He let Johnson call gimmick play after gimmick play because he thought it was sending a message. It was sending a message, albeit the wrong one. Johnson spent the entire season calling plays as if he was auditioning for head coaching jobs. That was on full display in the Lions’ game in Chicago when he dialed up the fake fumble trick to great fanfare despite the final score not being in doubt. This is the old Daffy Duck problem when he finally decided to one-up Bugs Bunny by drinking his special TNT cocktail that allowed him to explode on stage and his soul ascent into heaven in front of an amazed crowd: sure, Daffy finally bested Bugs, but as he remarked in his skyward exit, the only problem with the trick is that he could only do it once. Why waste such a sweet trick play in a meaningless moment? I remember Johnson’s trick play using right tackle Penei Sewell as a receiver late in the game against Dallas when the Lions were crushing the Cowboys. Another flashy play from the boy-genius! But besides the problem of wasting trick plays in blowouts, this play was executed in about 15 minutes of real time from the season-ending injury to defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Imagine the impact to the season if asking Sewell to be a wide receiver rather than a tight end ending up in an injury by asking him to execute plays and potentially get hit in the legs by defenders in plays that he is protected from when blocking on the line? Flashy. Reckless. Irresponsible.After Detroit’s loss in the NFC Championship Game against San Francisco, I wrote the following: “I wondered if Campbell’s aggressiveness would end up backfiring for his team. Aggressive play-calling is a way for underdogs to overachieve expectations. It made sense for Campbell to instill confidence in his team by taking these chances. These tactics also helped protect a suspect defense that was giving up plenty of points … The surprise value of the trick has limited returns … The seeds were planted for Detroit’s historic meltdown in the NFC Championship Game … (t)he play-calling got aggressive with a failed long pass to tight end Sam LaPorta setting up a third-and-five. The Lions chose to run the ball — as if it was two-down territory despite them being in field goal range. Then on fourth and a long one-yard, quarterback Jared Goff’s pass to Josh Reynolds was dropped. Granted a 31-10 lead after scoring a potential touchdown might have been the dagger. But neutralizing the Niners' initial field goal in the second half by matching those three points would have made it a 27-10 game with half the third quarter already burned. A three-possession lead would continue to squeeze the life out of a team and a fan base that had little to cheer about. Instead, San Francisco got the stop they needed … In a matter of a few moments, a game that seemed almost out of reach was now tied. And a franchise that had never reached the Super Bowl had suddenly blown a 17-point lead … (l)osing cultures don’t flip simply because someone declares it over. Winning cultures come from winning games — and good head coaches are stewards of their players in managing games to secure victories. In this regard, Campbell failed. His decision-making was, in fact, the act of a loser — one who thought seizing a 21-point lead was necessary. He communicated to his team that taking the easier 17-point lead was not going to be enough.”A year later, the play-calling in their first playoff game since that collapse against the 49ers was just a massive indictment that even my most cynical suspicions would never have suspected. Now both Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn have moved on to take head coaching jobs in the league. I’m not sure the loss of Johnson will be that big a deal since he was so anxious to become a head coach — as he did less than 24 hours later after the loss to the Commanders when he accepted Chicago’s offer. Johnson remarked that maximizing efficiency from the quarterback has become more important than limiting turnovers — a fascinating comment from a guy who chose to maximize quarterback efficiency by turning to a wide receiver to throw a critical fourth quarter pass. I’m not sure the offensive coaching staffs of the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs agree: The Eagles have not committed a turnover in five straight games and the Chiefs’ streak of eight straight games without turning the ball over got snapped in the AFC Championship Game with their one giveaway broke that streak. In a world where the final four teams all ranked in the top four in fourth down conversion success rates while being aggressive in their fourth down chances, perhaps turning the ball over is even more damaging since these teams are burning time off the clock which is making overall possessions scarcer and even more valuable. Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore made that exact point before the NFC Championship Game. As for Campbell, it was a season where he seemed to focus on a revenge tour against bad teams (Dallas, San Francisco) who were out of the playoff race and too concerned about putting up regular season banners as if his Lions were a team of destiny. Ask Josh Allen about teams of destiny. Heck, ask Buffalo Bills fans over the last 30 years if teams that get heartbroken in the postseason are promised anything the next season. As I wrote last year at this time, “perhaps Campbell will learn from his mistakes.” In hindsight, he did not successfully prepare his team to play their best football in the postseason. He also did not prepare his coaching staff and himself to coach their best games in the postseason. And now their window of opportunity to reach a Super Bowl may have just passed them by.Best of luck — Frank.

Fool's Gold: The Sam Darnold 2024 Season

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

I was worried about quarterback Sam Darnold going into the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 18 showdown with the Detroit Lions in game that would determine home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. He had been elevated into the MVP conversation that week after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. Darnold and the Vikings got exposed in that game as the Lions held them to only 262 yards of offense despite all their injuries on defense. Detroit won the game by a 31-9 score. There was a stretch in early November when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I wasn’t buying it. He threw only one interception against the Packers — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. That Week 18 game against the Lions was the biggest showcase in Darnold’s career — and he laid an egg by completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He was high on many of the incompletions. He missed open receivers — most notably Jordan Addison who head coach Kevin O’Connell schemed wide open inside the five-yard line in one of the Vikings’ several Red Zone drives that came up empty. I don’t think the problem was that Darnold was simply too amped up for this game. I think he is streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — and acts like he won the Super Bowl afterward like he did in a post-game locker room celebration after the win against Green Bay. But when things go bad as they did in that game at Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk — and what his midseason slump demonstrated to me is that he cannot simply flip the switch. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long which compounds the problem. His decision-making is a problem as well as he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. It sure helps having a wide receiver as talented as Justin Jefferson with his wide catch radius to bail out his quarterback when the throws are not on the money.Minnesota had a 10-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession this season. They only outgained their opponents by +11.3 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. They reminded me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams. My concerns about Darnold bore out in the Vikings’ opening-round exit against the Los Angeles Rams in their wildcard playoff game. Minnesota got upset by a 27-9 score. Darnold completed 25 of 40 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His stat line does not do justice to how underwhelming his play was in that game. Per ESPN Research on Twitter/X at halftime of that game: “Sam Darnold has 8 overthrows tonight, the second-most for a game in his career. The only other game with more was in Week 7 of 2019 when he had 12 while with the Jets vs. the Patriots. (You know what game that was.).”The game ESPN was referencing in the parenthetical was the one where Darnold later admitted to seeing “ghosts” in the pocket. I still think Darnold is one of the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL. Someone will sign him to a contract in free agency. But he cost himself perhaps as high as a $45 million per year contract with how he played in his most important two games of the season. Market demand may help him receive a contract offer similar to the one Baker Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay which got him $30 million per season. But certainly, the wild speculation in December that the Vikings might be willing to trade away rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy for draft capital in order to sign Darnold to a long-term contract was premature and an overreaction to short-term results. Imagine what O’Connell can do with McCarthy — who remains on a rookie deal which gives the team more salary cap flexibility. Minnesota’s signing of Daniel Jones once he was released by the New York Giants gave them some potential insurance at quarterback. Perhaps O’Connell can resurrect Jones’ career as he did Darnold’s. Stockpiling quarterback talent — especially at a low cost — is smart. Creating more viable options is savvy, especially with McCarthy coming off knee surgery. But this is likely McCarthy’s team moving forward.Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 5 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Tuesday, Dec 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.ARKANSAS STATE: Things hit rock bottom for head coach Butch Jones early last season when they got crushed by Oklahoma by a 73-0 score before losing to Memphis by a 37-3 score. The Red Wolves entered the season with an 11-26 record since Jones took over — so the former Tennessee head coach was already on the hot season coming into his fourth season with the program. But things changed after the season-ending injury to senior quarterback J.T. Shrout which created the opportunity for freshman Jaylen Raynor who would then average 231 passing Yards-Per-Game with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with an 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Red Wolves would become bowl-eligible the rest of the way before losing to Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl by a 21-19 score. Now 16 starters return this season as Jones looks to take this program to the next level after three straight top recruiting classes in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas State averaged 45.8 Points-Per-Game in their six wins by only 11.0 PPG in their seven losses. They need to get their defense playing better after ranking 102nd and 124th in the nation by allowing 30.4 PPG and 443.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They only held one opponent to less than 21 points. Six starters return on that side of the ball — and Jones added nine players in the transfer portal to improve the talent level on defense. BOISE STATE: The Broncos season turned around last year after third-year head coach Andy Avalos got fired on November 12th with the team underachieving expectations. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos took over as interim head coach and led the team to three straight wins including a dominant 44-20 win at UNLV to take the Mountain West Conference championship that eluded them the previous season despite a perfect 8-0 regular season mark. After a 35-22 loss against UCLA in the LA Bowl, Boise State finished with an 8-6 record. Seventeen starters are back from that group — and Danielson added some impactful transfers. The offense is led by junior running back Ashton Jeanty who rushed for 1347 yards en route to winning the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year Award. The defense has 11 starters back along with 16 of the 19 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. But while that unit was young last season, they ranked 100th in the nation by allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and ranked 71st in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. BOWLING GREEN: The Bowling Green administration was finally rewarded with their patience in head coach Scott Loeffler as the team seemed to have made a breakthrough in the second half of last season. The Falcons won five of their last six games before losing to Minnesota by a 30-24 score in the Quick Lane Bowl. Loeffler’s teams only posted a 7-22 record in his first three seasons — and the 0-5 campaign in the 2020 COVID year in his second season may have significantly derailed the rebuilding effort he had planned. But Bowling Green went to their first bowl game since 2015 two years which gave Loeffler the benefit of an extra few weeks of practice. Now 15 starters return from last year’s 7-6 squad — and Loeffler added seven transfers on the defensive side of the football. Five of their six losses came against teams who combined to produce a 59-10 record including the national champion Michigan Wolverines who Loeffler conceded really beat them up physically early in the season. Sixth-year senior Connor Bazelak returns at quarterback after making big strides in the second half of the season. The former Indiana and Missouri quarterback improved after trusting his offensive system more and limiting his turnovers. The defense was aggressive and opportunistic — they led the nation in forced turnovers and ranked 16th in sack rate. BUFFALO: After a 3-9 season last year, third-year head coach Maurice Linguist bailed the program to become the co-defensive coordinator at Alabama. Pete Lembo comes in as the new head coach with 15 years of head coaching experience at Lehigh, Elon, and then Ball State for five seasons where he compiled a 33-29 record. Since leaving the Cardinals, he has been an in-demand special teams coordinator. He inherits ten starters and added at least a dozen players in the transfer portal. The defense should be in decent shape after the Bulls ranked 53rd in the nation by allowing 367.1 total Yards-Per-Game. But the offense only scored 20.9 Points-Per-Game and 318.8 total YPG, ranking 109th and 113th, and only three starters return. CALIFORNIA: The Golden Bears rallied when their record fell to 3-6 by winning three straight games to become bowl-eligible before losing to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl by a 34-14 score. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from that team as they begin their inaugural season in the ACC. California was outgained by -82 net Yards-Per-Game in the last season of the Pac-12. For the second-straight season, the defense did not play up to Wilcox’s expectations as they rank 111th and 102nd in the nation by surrendering 32.8 Points-Per-Game and 414.1 YPG. The offense will have their fourth new offensive coordinator in Wilcox’s eight seasons with offensive line coach and run game coordinator Mike Bloesch taking over for Jake Spavital who took the same job at Baylor. Sophomore Fernando Mendoza returns at quarterback after taking the starting job after the first month of the season — but he will be challenged by senior North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers who passed for 3382 yards with 29 touchdown passes and only five interceptions last season. Running back Jaydn Ott is an All-American candidate after rushing for 1305 yards and 12 touchdowns in his sophomore season. Wilcox has gotten more aggressive in the transfer portal with an Admissions Office that has been more cooperative regarding their rigorous academic standards. Despite being a West Coast team playing many of their games on the East Coast, Wilcox reeled in his best recruiting class in four years. CLEMSON: Head coach Dabo Swinney continues to “get off my lawn” regarding the transfer portal with him bringing only two backup quarterbacks in the last six seasons. Clemson has a solid NIL program but it is dedicated to retaining rather than adding players. Perhaps Swinney is crazy like a fox in the positive impact this has on the culture within his program. On the other hand, the Tigers lost 12 in the transfer portal in the offseason and bypassed taking advantage of the selective targeting of specific positional needs that other potential playoff contenders engage in. Swinney is banking on his recruiting, nurturing, and coaching up, which will put his collective roster in a position to compete for a national championship when the playoffs arrive — and he just has to make sure his team is still in the tournament. But the defense lost five players to the NFL in the meantime and only returned five starters. Junior quarterback Cade Klubnik completed 64% of his passes for 2844 yards last season — but he threw nine interceptions and failed to close the deal in the fourth quarter in losses to Florida State, Miami (FL), and North Carolina State. On one hand, perhaps the Tigers are the ultimate “buy-low” stock according to Swinney after his team won the first down battle by a combined 94-60 margin in their four losses last season. Or perhaps the fumbles and missed Red Zone field goal attempts in those games were just a harbinger of things to come for this program. Klubnik only ranked 80th in Quarterback Rating -- so he is either going to break out this season or fail to fulfill the promise of his five-star rating coming out of high school. FLORIDA: Head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat after two straight losing campaigns that have resulted in an 11-14 record with the Gators. In their five-game losing streak to close last season, they gave up 38.2 Points-Per-Game. Fourteen starters return including senior quarterback Graham Mertz who bypassed the transfer portal after his first year in Gainesville — but he may be challenged by fellow former five-star recruit D.J. Lagway entering the program. Before getting too aggressive about fading Florida, remember the size that still exists on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Three starters return on the defensive line. The top seven returnees on the offensive line have an average size of 6’6 and weigh 326 pounds. FRESNO STATE: Jeff Tedford stepped down as head coach of this program in mid-June due to ongoing health issues. Tedford is a fantastic head coach who led the Bulldogs to a Mountain West Conference championship in his third season here in 2019 before stepping down in the offseason because of health reasons. He was rehired for the 2022 season. He did not coach the New Mexico Bowl last year because of health issues. Assistant head coach and linebackers coach Tim Skipper was the interim head coach in Fresno State’s 37-10 win against New Mexico State — and he has been tapped as the interim head for this season. Thirteen starters return from that group headlined by junior Mikey Keene who won the MVP award for that bowl game by completing 31 of 39 passes for 390 yards with three touchdowns in the air and another on the ground. In their four losses, they failed to score at least 20 points — so this is an area of concern. The defense has taken a step back as well after the 23.5 Points-Per-Game they allowed were the most they surrendered since 2017. The Bulldogs’ defense fell to 79th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. They gave up 30 points six times — and they ranked 97th in the nation by giving up 166.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The players responded and played great for Skipper in the bowl game — but changing head coaches in June is far from ideal.GEORGIA: The Bulldogs’ 27-24 upset loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship kept them from attempting to become the first college football team to pull off a three-peat since Minnesota in the 1930s. Since November of 2020, Georgia has a 46-2 record — and both those two losses were against the Crimson Tide. Sixteen starters return led by senior quarterback Carson Beck who ranked fourth in the nation by completing 72.4% of his passes and ranked third with 3941 passing yards. Beck must find new favorite targets with tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey off to the NFL — but head coach Kirby Smart brought in three transfers to compete with an already talented if younger wide receiver and tight end rooms. Four starters return on the offensive for a group that might be the best in the country. Seven starters return on defense including eight of the 12 players in the front seven who logged-in at least 200 snaps. As usual, this side of the football has to replace players who are now playing on Sundays — but considering that only four are gone to the NFL with none of them getting drafted in the first round indicates this group could be quite good. Smart did lose three starters in the secondary to the NFL — but what this unit lacks in experience it makes up for in young blue-chip talent waiting for their opportunity. GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles return 13 starters from a team that lost their final five games of the season after a 41-21 loss to Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. After two straight 6-7 seasons, there is unrest with this program entering the third-year with former USC head coach Clay Helton leading the program. The transition from a spread triple-option offense to an Air Raid passing attack has gone about as well as possible — although their 31 turnovers last season were tied with Nebraska for most in the nation. But the other side of the ball continues to be the concern after Georgia Southern surrendered 30.5 Points-Per-Game last season after giving up 31.6 and 31.4 PPG in the prior two years. INDIANA: Tom Allen was relieved of his head coaching duties after seven seasons since the Hoosiers compiled just a 10-26 record in the last three years after their surprising 6-2 mark in the COVID 2020 campaign. They have lost 24 of their last 27 games against Big Ten rivals. In comes in new head coach Curt Cignetti who may be trying to transform Indiana into James Madison West with 13 players joining him. The Dukes posted a 52-9 record in his tenure there including a 19-4 mark the last two seasons. In all, Cignetti brought in 30 transfers to join nine returning starters. The defense lost 14 players including five starters to the transfer portal but Cignetti brought six players on that side of the ball from James Madison including four who were All-Sun Belt Conference award winners. On offense, Cignetti’s initial priority was improving the speed and athleticism of that group — and he added eight players in the transfer portal at the skill positions. The wide receiver room has the potential to be one of the most dynamic groups in the nation for former Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The three-year starter for the Bobcats looks to rebound from a down season last year — but he won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year two years ago. He has a 21-11 career record as a starter. With so many new players in Bloomington, establishing a winning culture is a concern. But Cignetti has never had a losing season in his 13 years as a head coach — and as he tells recruits: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.” KANSAS STATE: After overseeing a 12-11 mark in his first two seasons, head coach Chris Klieman enters his sixth year with the Wildcats with a 27-13 record in the last three seasons to firmly establish them as one of the teams to beat in the Big 12 conference. Kansas State finished 9-4 last season after their 28-19 victory against North Carolina State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Only 12 starters return from that group. The defense should continue to be good with eight starters back from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Five of the top six tacklers are back as well as 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense experienced some turnover in the offseason with offensive coordinator Collin Klein taking the same job at Texas A&M and quarterback Will Howard transferring to Ohio State. Klieman hired former Texas Tech and Utah State head coach Matt Wells and elevated offensive line coach Conor Riley to serve as co-offensive coordinators. And don’t tell Buckeye Nation that sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson was probably going to beat Howard out for the starting quarterback job anyway. Johnson is one of the most prized recruits in the history of the program with his dual-threat skills and should bring more of a passing threat to this offense than Howard or even when Klein when quarterbacking this team over a decade ago. A looming problem could be their inexperienced offensive line that lost three multi-year starters from last year’s team. MISSISSIPPI: After a 10-3 season two years ago, the Rebels took a step back to an 8-5 record in head coach Lane Kiffin’s fourth season with the program. Such are the swings when a program becomes so dependent on the transfer portal. But Kiffin was able to build off a team with 14 returning starters and use the portal again last offseason to build a roster that would produce the first 11-win season in program history last year. Ole Miss finished with an 11-2 record after a statement victory and offensive explosion against a good Penn State defense in their 38-25 win in the Peach Bowl. Yet a 52-17 loss to Georgia in a game where the Bulldogs rushed for over 300 yards demonstrated to Kiffin that there remains a significant talent deficit in their program. The “Portal King” used the 11-win season to get aggressive in the transfer portal once again. Another large group of incoming players including eight who were former 4 or 5-star players coming out of high school was enough for it to be graded the number one transfer class in the nation. Kiffin’s top goal was to get bigger, stronger, and more athletic on his front seven after the Georgia debacle. Five of the five and four-star transfers were for the defense — and the Rebels will likely have six transfers in their starting defense to complement the six returning starters that are back. The offense lost two-time first-team All-SEC running back Quinshon Judkins who transferred to Ohio State — but Kiffin added multiple running backs, wide receivers, and offensive linemen to upgrade the talent on the roster. Senior quarterback Jaxson Dart bypassed the NFL to return after passing for 3364 yards and adding 381 rushing yards. Entering his third year as the starter, the former USC transfer threw 23 touchdown passes and lowered his interception count from 11 to just five last season. The problem with bringing in so many new players year after year is that building a culture is not a given and can be volatile. But culture is not enough to beat Georgia and compete for a national championship. Both lines look significantly better on paper. Kiffin is a quarterback whisperer. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding is one of the best in the business — and he will be tasked to see that if building an elite front seven is too difficult at a place like Ole Miss, can one be rented?NORTH TEXAS: The Mean Green met even the wildest of expectations on the offensive side of the ball under first-year head coach Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple and former head coach at Incarnate Work oversaw an offense that ranked sixth in the nation by generating 495.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Morris deploys a run-first philosophy in an Air Raid scheme — North Texas was second in the FBS by averaging 191.2 rushing YPG. But the other side of the ball was a nightmare as they ranked 128th and 130th in the country by surrendering 37.1 Points-Per-Game and 476.4 total YPG. Nine starters return from the 5-7 team that failed to qualify for a bowl game. The Mean Green were then ravaged in the transfer portal with more than two dozen players exiting the program including most of their productive players on offense. Rogers responded by bringing in more than 40 players including 20 from Power Four conferences with an emphasis on improving the overall size of the team. The defense should be better under second-year defensive coordinator Matt Caponi since things cannot get worse. Morris lost starting quarterback Chandler Rogers who transferred to California. He brought in junior Chandler Morris from TCU to compete for the job this year. The skill position rooms have depth — but the offensive line needs to improve which is why Morris brought in five transfers. NORTHERN ILLINOIS: The Huskies stumbled out of the gate last season with four losses in their first five games, but they won six of their last eight games culminating in their 21-19 win against Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl. Head coach Thomas Hammock lost 18 players in the transfer portal — but 16 starters return to lead an experienced roster featuring 30 seniors. Hammock has created a physical identity for his team with a run-first offense that often deploys either two tight ends (12) or two running back (21) personnel. Replacing quarterback Rocky Lombardi will be a challenge — the former Michigan State transfer led them to their MAC championship in 2021 — but he only completed 58.9% of his passes in his Northern Illinois career so there is room for the passing game to improve. The defense returns eight starters from a group that ranked 23rd in the nation by giving up only 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Hammock oversees a program that does a great job of overseeing the high school talent they recruit — so the losses in the transfer portal are not lethal. The Huskies were just 5-3 in conference play last year but they outgained these opponents by +79 YPG. OHIO: The Bobcats enjoyed their second-straight ten-win season after finishing 10-3 last year with their 41-21 victory against Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. But perhaps no other team has lost more players. Fourth-year head coach Tim Albin lost 34 players either to graduation or the transfer portal. Even more demoralizing for the Ohio faithful is that they have lost 21 players either to the NFL or via transfer to a bigger college football conference. Albin responded by adding 17 transfer players — but nine of these players were from the FCS level or lower so it is fair to say that they are losing this war of predators. The defense replaces nine of their top 12 tacklers and eight of the 13 players who logged-in at least 300 snaps. But Albin does return six players from that unit who got at least one start as a sophomore last season. The other side of the ball may be trickier to replace after losing their top six receivers, running back Sieh Bangura in the transfer portal to Minnesota and quarterback Kurtis Rourke in the transfer portal to Indiana. Rourke was a three-year starter who won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. If that was not enough, Albin also has new coordinators with Brian Smith running the offense and John Hauser overseeing the defense.OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes are going all-in this season to win the National Championship. Four players on defense bypassed the NFL to return for the chance to not only hoist a trophy but to also beat Michigan for the first time in their careers. Head coach Ryan Day also brought in four of the biggest prizes in the transfer portal. The defense gets even more talent with sophomore and second-team All-American Caleb Downs coming over from Alabama. He joins a unit that returns nine starters and ten of the 14 players who logged in 200 to more snaps that ranked second and third in the nation by only giving up 11.2 Points-Per-Game and 265.4 total Yards-Per-Game. First-team All-Big Ten running back TreVeyon Henderson is joined by Quinshon Judkins who was a two-time first-team All-SEC running back from Ole Miss. The offensive line was a weak link last season in both run blocking and pass protection. Senior center Seth McLaughlin comes in from Alabama. But the most important transfer will be dual-threat quarterback Will Howard who was a four-year starter at Kansas State. Day is also relinquishing the play-calling duties with his former mentor and NFL head coach Chip Kelly leaving UCLA and the headaches of running a college program to simply coach football and run an offense. Twenty players are on the roster with at least 12 collegiate starts in their career. But pressure comes with the sky-high expectations. The offensive line remains a concern — and so too is the quarterback. Howard was losing reps to Avery Johnson at Kansas State last year and he struggled with his deep passes in spring practice with the Buckeyes. He only completed 61% of his passes last season while throwing 10 interceptions. With Kyle McCord transferring to Syracuse, he has become the scapegoat for the loss at Michigan — but there is a good argument to be had that he is the better quarterback over Howard. He completed 65.5% of his passes with only six interceptions last season. McCord ranked seventh in the nation in Total Quarterback Rating while Howard ranked 23rd in that metric. PENN STATE: Another year for head coach James Franklin in Happy Valley and another ten-win campaign for the Nittany Lions for the fifth time in the last seven non-COVID seasons. But once again, Penn State fell short against Michigan and Ohio State — and then they lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl by a 35-28 score. The number one reason why the Nittany Lions cannot crash through this ceiling is their lack of elite future NFL talent at the skill positions. They only had 47 gains of more than 20 yards last season, ranking 97th in the nation. They only averaged 1.5 plays per game of 30 or more yards, ranking 110th in the nation. This lack of explosiveness on offense is simply putting too much pressure on the quarterback. Former five-star recruit Drew Allar threw 25 touchdown passes and just two interceptions last season — but against the Wolverines and Buckeyes, he completed only 28 of 64 passes for a mere 261 passing yards while appearing gun-shy to throw the ball down the field to attack the opposing defense. The wide receiver room continues to lack play-makers who can separate. In theory, the running back room is dynamic behind the one-two punch off juniors Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen — but those two rushers went from generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry as freshmen to 4.8 YPC in their sophomore seasons last year. The offensive line replaces three starters to the NFL. Franklin did attempt to address the explosiveness problem in the offseason by poaching Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to run the offense. The defense should remain outstanding with seven starters back from the unit that ranked third and second in the nation by allowing only 13.5 Points-Per-Game and 247.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen takes over as defensive coordinator for Manny Diaz who took the Duke head coaching job. PITTSBURGH: In my preseason preview of the Panthers last season, I wondered if head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program after posting 20 victories in the previous two seasons — or was this a football team that will take a step or two back this season? After suffering their most losses since the 1998 season with a 3-9 mark last year, the answer is clear. The offense hit rock bottom by scoring only 20.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 317.9 total Yards-Per-Game, ranking 114th in the nation in both categories. The defense ranked 73rd in the nation by giving up 27.3 PPG — and their SP+ defensive ranking of 59th was their lowest in five seasons using the metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Narduzzi addressed the offense by hiring 31-year-old Western Carolina offensive coordinator Kade Bell to run the offense. Bell will deploy a fast-tempo system with spread principles. It remains to be seen if Narduzzi will give Bell the freedom to implement his intended system or if his defensive principles will demand that some of those tactics get reined in. Up-tempo schemes tend to put additional pressure on their own defense since these offenses tend not to be on the field as much. Only two starters return on defense after two leaders from that unit left the program for the transfer portal in spring practice. That is not a ringing endorsement regarding where the program is headed. Narduzzi brought in nine transfer players to the defense including five on the defensive line — but with the secondary losing three NFL-caliber players to graduation, it is difficult not to see that this program is taking two steps back for every step forward. RUTGERS: After overseeing just a 12-22 record in his first three seasons back as the Scarlet Knights head coach, Greg Schiano’s team broke out with a 7-6 record after a 31-24 win against Miami (FL) in the Pinstripe Bowl to register their first winning season since 2014. There were concerns about Schiano’s culture a season ago at this time, but a year later sees him finally beginning to re-establish the roster depth he fostered in his first 11-year stint with the program — and recruiting is starting to take off. Rutgers brings a defense-first mentality to their games — they ranked 16th in the nation by allowing only 313.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Scarlet Knights return four of the five starters in their secondary that helped them rank 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 176.3 passing YPG — and they ranked 17th in Opponent Yards per Dropback Allowed. That group does lose cornerback Max Melton who got drafted in the second round of the NFL draft. But while the run defense ranked 41st by giving up 137.8 rushing YPG, the deeper metrics exposed them as ranking 101st in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also ranked 101st in Sack Rate. The defensive front is undersized but one of the most experienced units in the nation. The front seven features three fifth-year seniors and one sixth-year senior. Eight starters return on defense — and another eight starters are back on offense including three starters on the offensive line. That line has four seniors this season and returns 48 of the 65 starts from their 13 games last season. Under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, Rutgers ran the ball 61.9% of the time which was the eighth-highest amount in the FBS. While this physical run-first approach allowed them to be flat-track bullies against lesser competition, the Scarlet Knights only managed to score 8.4 Points-Per-Game in their five games against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Schiano addressed the problems in the passing game by bringing in senior quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis who previously played for Ciarocca at Minnesota. The “Greek Rifle” has 17 career starts after starting in 12 games for the Golden Gophers last season. SAN JOSE STATE: The new head coach is Ken Niumatalolo who previously served as the head coach at Navy for 15 seasons. He replaces Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. This Spartans team lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal — so things are all but starting over at San Jose State. While Niumatalolo’s Navy teams deployed the spread triple option rushing attack, that will not be the offense the Spartans operate. Instead, Niumatalolo hired Texas State passing coordinator Chris Stutzmann as his offensive coordinator. The former Hawai’i wide receiver will install an offense based on Run-and-Shot and Air Raid principles. Niumatalolo was able to retain defensive coordinator Derrick Odum who returns for his seventh season with the program. After surrendering 39.8 Points-Per-Game in their first six games, San Jose State held their final six Mountain West Conference opponents to just 17.8 PPG. They finished with a 7-6 record after a 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina in the Hawai’i Bowl.SOUTH FLORIDA: The Bulls experienced an instant and incredible turnaround last season in the first year under new head coach Alex Golesh by posting a 7-6 record that culminated in a triumphant 45-0 blowout victory against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. They also played Alabama close in a 17-3 loss. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. The former Tennessee offensive coordinator installed a simple but effective up-tempo offense that ranked 17th in the nation by generating 451.6 Yards-Per-Game. The South Florida offense led the nation in total plays per game and ranked fourth in total drives per game. One of Golesh’s first good decisions was to name redshirt freshman Byrum Brown as his starting quarterback. Brown responded by completing 64.9% of his passes for 3292 yards and adding another 809 yards on the ground. If he can improve his down-the-field accuracy, he will become one of the most complete quarterbacks in the nation. Eighteen starters return to what will be one of the most experienced teams in the FBS. Eight starters are back on defense along with 10 of their 14 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. That unit needs to improve after ranking 115th in the nation by surrendering 432.5 total YPG — but shutting out the Orange and holding the Crimson Tide to 17 points demonstrates their potential. TENNESSEE: The Volunteers' defense took a big step in the right direction last season by holding their opponents to 335.2 total Yards-Per-Game which ranked 32nd in the nation and represented a -70.1 net YPG improvement to what they surrendered the previous season. While the pass defense ranked in the middle of the pack by ranking 64th in the nation by giving up 221.5 passing, that was still a significant improvement from the previous season when they ranked 126th by giving up 289.5 passing YPG. But fourth-year defensive coordinator Tim Banks faces a big challenge after losing 11 players from the secondary either to the NFL or the transfer portal. But Banks claims he may have the best defensive line in the nation — and with a rotation that goes ten deep, he might be right. James Pearce, Jr. anchors the unit — and the first-team All-SEC defensive end may be one of the top ten picks in the next NFL draft. The ability and the willingness to rotate these defensive linemen should give Tennessee a big edge late in games. Freshman Nico Iamaleava is probably an upgrade at quarterback over Joe Milton. The former five-star recruit was the MVP in the Citrus Bowl after accounting for four touchdowns. But the question remains if this program can take the next step by staying competitive with the best teams in the country. They lost all three of their games last year against teams that finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings system — and the average loss in those three games was by -24 Points-Per-Game. TEXAS: The Longhorns return 15 starters from the team that won the Big 12 Championship and reached the College Football Playoffs where they lost to Washington by a 37-31 score in the Semifinals. Head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in another 25 new plays to this group with the sky-high expectation that they play for the National Championship this season. Quarterback Quinn Ewers bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season and third year as the starter — but sophomore Arch Manning looms behind him. Ewers completed 69.0% of his passes for 3479 yards. While he is very accurate with intermediate routes, he is not as much of a threat in the vertical passing game down the field. He also struggles with timing routes and does not throw his targets open. Six other starters are back on offense including four offensive linemen in what could be the best offensive line in the nation. Eight starters are back on defense — but their pass defense must improve. Texas ranked 113th by surrendering 254.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and six of their opponents passed for at least 300 yards against them. Only one starter is back in the secondary with Sarkisian hitting the transfer portal to improve the talent. I do worry about Sarkisian’s temperament to lead a team to a national title. He has always been anointed as the Chosen One regarding the next wunderkind offensive mind and head coach — and he always gets another chance to fulfill this perception of potential. The team motto he installed for this team was “obsessed” — and I’m just not sure that is the healthiest of mindsets to prepare a team to handle adversity. The fact that he is a recovering alcoholic makes it even worse. Yo, “obsession” is not a healthy characteristic! Players and coaches can commit to the work ethic necessary to put the team in a position to win a national championship without it becoming (and glorifying it) an obsession. Does the zeal to become “obsessed” indirectly put too much pressure on this team? TOLEDO: The Rockets return eight starters from the group that went undefeated in the Mid-American Conference regular season before getting upset in the MAC Championship Game by a 23-14 score to Miami (OH). Head coach Jason Candle’s team won the MAC Championship the year before — and they did finish 11-3 last year despite then losing to Wyoming Bowl in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score with a depleted roster. Candle is doing a great job after eight seasons with the program — and the Rockets have not had a losing season since 2009. His ability to identify high school talent and then develop it in his program has been his calling card. This skill will be challenged this season with only eight starters back from his 11-3 club. He lost starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone in the transfer portal — and the offensive line must be completely rebuilt after losing all five starters from last season. The secondary also lost cornerbacks Quinton Mitchell and Chris McDonald with both graduating — Mitchell was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and McDonald was an All-MAC awardee. TULANE: After the Green Wave went 23-5 in the last two seasons including a victory against USC in the Cotton Bowl two years ago, Willie Fritz took the head coaching job at Houston. But Tulane managed to bring in another excellent head coach in Jon Sumrall who posted a 23-4 record in his two seasons at Troy. He inherits 15 starters — and he was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding 11 additional players on offense and another 10 players on defense. Of particular note are the three blue-chippers he brought in offense. Quarterback Ty Thompson was a former five-star recruit at Oregon who played behind Bo Nix last season. Two dynamic wide receivers join him: Mario Williams from USC and Shazz Preston from Alabama. Because former Troy offensive coordinator Jordan Craddock likes to deploy two-tight end 12 personnel, tight end Alex Bauman bypassed the transfer window to return to Tulane for his junior season. UTSA: The Frank Harris era finally comes to a close for the Roadrunners after the quarterback graduated after being in the program for seven seasons to become the best football player in school history. Injuries and the COVID hardship year account for the seven-year career — he led UTSA to 32 victories in the last three seasons, including two Conference USA Championship Game wins. The Roadrunners finished 9-4 last year after their 35-17 victory against Marshall. Fourteen starters return. Head coach Jeff Traylor did lose some important players in the transfer portal, but he was aggressive in filling those holes, including several former blue-chip recruits from Power Four conferences. This could be his deepest roster yet in his five seasons with the program. VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies return 19 starters from the team that finished with five wins in their last seven games to end with a 7-6 record. They bear Tulane by a 41-20 score in the Military Bowl. Enthusiasm is high, with junior quarterback Kyron Drones returning after igniting the team in the second half of the season when he was inserted into the starting lineup. Virginia Tech outgained their ACC opponents by +107 Yards-Per-Game. In their final seven games with Drones under center, they scored 34.7 Points-Per-Game. The defense returns eight starters from a group that ranked fourth in sacks per dropback rate and fourth by holding their opponents to 168.8 passing Yards-Per-Game. WEST VIRGINIA: Neal Brown was on the hot seat last year going into his fifth season as the head coach of the Mountaineers. West Virginia had a 22-25 record in his first four seasons. With his fourth offensive coordinator in his tenure, he took responsibility for that side of the ball by taking over the play-calling. Armed with the knowledge that his team was 18-4 if they ran for at least 100 yards (3-21 if they failed to reach 100 rushing yards), Brown committed to a ground-and-pound identity with a Thunder and Lightning duo at running back. C.J. Donaldson and Jaheim White combined to rush for 1570 yards and 24 touchdowns. The Mountaineers won five of their final six games, including a 30-10 victory against North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl to finish 9-4. Brown was given a multi-year extension. Eight starters are back on offense including both those running backs and senior dual-threat quarterback. Brown has struggled with how he has handled the transfer portal in the past — and he changed his tactics by focusing more on player retention and using the portal to address specific problems. His attention was on the secondary in the offseason as he brought in six transfers including five cornerbacks to bolster his pass defense. They join five returning starters on that side of the ball. The roster looks better but the Big 12 schedule is brutal. WESTERN KENTUCKY: Head coach Tyson Helton returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 after rallying from 28 points down to beat Old Dominion in overtime in the Famous Tastery Bowl. Nine starters are back on offense but that unit moves on from two-year starter Austin Reed who got drafted into the NFL. Helton brought in junior T.J. Finley from Texas State to compete for the starting quarterback job. The former Auburn signal-caller passed for 3439 yards with 24 touchdown passes and eight interceptions for the Bobcats last season. But he will have to beat out redshirt sophomore Caden Veltkamp who threw for 383 yards and five touchdown passes in the bowl game. The other side of the beak continues to be the problem for the Hilltoppers after they ranked 108th in the nation by giving up 419.7 total Yards-Per-Game. That unit lost nine of the 16 players who logged in at least 350 snaps last year. Helton hit the transfer portal by bringing in another five players to try to improve the talent level on defense. Helton has been very reliant on using the transfer portal but he perhaps has become too dependent on short-term one-year fixes. After leading Conference USA with a +136 net YPG mark, they only outgained conference rivals by +13 net YPG last season. Best of luck -- Frank.

The Second Half Turnaround of the Baltimore Ravens Defense

Saturday, Dec 28, 2024

The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game going into Week 17 — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now.Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore had played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17 going into their Christmas Day game on the road in Houston against the Texans.The Ravens may have played their best defensive game in the season in our NFL Total of the Month for that contest. Baltimore held the Houston offense scoreless in a 31-2 victory. The Texans managed only ten first downs and gained only 185 yards of offense. Quarterback C.J. Stroud completed only 17 of 31 passes for 185 yards before he got subbed out of the game. Moving forward, with Hamilton playing at free safety and Pees providing his insight on a weekly basis, this Ravens team may have one of the best defenses in the league — despite what the season-long statistics may suggest. Best of luck — Frank.

When Handicapping Instincts Trump the Analytics: Two Case Studies

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

Successful sports handicapping requires not simply assessing teams but analyzing how your assessment of a team relates to the lines put out by the bookmakers. One of the challenges in addressing this conundrum relates as when to rely on the deeper analytics to drive a conclusion versus trusting one’s instincts from years of experience reacting to oddsmakers posted numbers. Two illustrative examples of this took place during a two-day span in the NFL this month.The Detroit Lions traveled to Houston to play the Texans as a 3.5-point road favorite for Sunday Night Football on November 10th. I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by Week 10 of this NFL season considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. Those caveats aside, we may have been seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presented us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic was not enough for me to endorse the Texans in that contest. The second factor that persuaded me was simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions were thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown the previous week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and that they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit were only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game at the time. The Lions led the NFL in net turnover margin — and they were averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That dynamic was simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit had forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I didn’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we were catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets the previous week by +29 net yards despite a 21-13 loss. The Texans had not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they had then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expected wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field for this game. I expected plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers were generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry against them at the time. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career before that game, he enjoyed a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston was 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They were outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans were holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They ranked second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home which was more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generated on the road going into that game. Houston raced out to a 23-7 lead going into halftime of that game. While they did not score in the second half and lost the game by a 26-23 score, they still covered the +3.5 point spread. The next day for Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Miami Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite. This was a fishy line. Miami was on a three-game losing streak and has won only two games this season — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision. The Rams were riding a three-game winning streak and were getting healthy on both sides of the ball, especially with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau back from their injuries. The Dolphins were crushing their bettors this season — they were getting outscored by -8.2 Points-Per-Game relative to the point spread. The betting public was all over the Rams that night. At DraftKings, 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are on Los Angeles — and yet most books including DraftKings had not even moved the Rams to a field goal favorite? I smelled a rat — and I decided to fade the public. I saw enough to justify this decision. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of his 28 passes last week. They outgained the Bills by +48 net yards while generating 373 total yards of offense. In the previous two weeks since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol, their offense ranked second in Expected Points Added per play on offense. The Dolphins defense had played a bit better than expected as well. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They were only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they were holding their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami came into the game desperate — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. I appreciated that the Los Angeles offense was much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were healthy and on the field. But the Rams were still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. The Rams got outgained by -58 net yards in their win against the Seahawks the previous week — but a +2 net turnover margin including a 103-yard interception return for a touchdown helped them overcome that yardage deficit. It was telling that Los Angeles had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November.Miami raced out to a 10-6 lead at halftime and went on to win the game by a 23-15 score to pull off the upset victory. Proving once again, sometimes the number presented by the bookies tells a more compelling story than the narrative that the deeper analytics appear to be telling us. Best of luck — Frank.

Assessing Stanford Football After Year Two of the Troy Taylor Tenure

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The Stanford Cardinal finished 3-9 in the second season under head coach Troy Taylor after their 34-31 loss at San Jose State on Friday, November 29th. While this team seemed to be better this season in their first year in the ACC, the results do not do much to back that claim up.Last year was destined to be a trying season for Taylor’s first season as he was taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. A 3-9 campaign ensued with Stanford getting outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. But there were bright spots. The Cardinal pulled off upsets against Colorado and Washington State. Dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels showed flashes with 11 touchdown passes. Sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanor caught 62 balls for 1013 receiving yards in Taylor’s fast-paced stretch Air Raid offense. With four starters back, Stanford may have had the most improved offensive line in the country. But the defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG. Fifteen of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return with the hope that a second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April will lead to a significant growth spurt. Taylor has improved recruiting — they ranked 31st and 27th respectively by 247 Sports and Rivals for their 2024 class. He is not attempting to take shortcuts in the transfer portal (which simply may not be an option for a school like Stanford) so things remain a long-term project. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter the previous week against California and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. They entered their final game of the season against the Spartans surrendering 412.3 total YPG which resulted in 39.3 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they were giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They ranked 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. San Jose State gained 443 yards against them with their defense continuing to be a problem. Spartans’ quarterback Walker Eget completed 33 of 49 passes for 385 yards with four touchdown passes and an interception in that game. The previous week against UNLV, Eget only completed 4 of 22 passes for 81 yards albeit in rain and sloppy conditions. Stanford's offense did play better in their final game in 2024. After going into that contest scoring only 19.2 PPG on the road, they gained 379 yards with Daniels leading the offense down the field midway in the fourth quarter to take a 31-27 lead. He completed 26 of 40 passes for 252 yards with one touchdown pass — but he did throw three interceptions. He added another 91 yards on the ground with another touchdown. But the defense could not stop the Spartans who scored the winning touchdown with just under two minutes to go in the game. The Cardinal offense had not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they had failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They overcame those low standards against San Jose State. They were converting on just 34% of their third downs going into that game. They ranked 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss — but they only gave up one sack in their final game against a Spartans team that ranked 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss going into that game. Optimists can point to Stanford’s offensive numbers against San Jose State along with their general improvement on defense to conclude that the Cardinal is moving in the right direction under Taylor. Yet after two straight 3-9 campaigns, these are baby steps, at best. Stanford would probably be ill-advised to let Taylor go after only two seasons given his commitment to rebuilding this program with a strong foundation rather than quick-fix gambles. But he probably needs to see the Cardinal make significant strides on the field in his third season next year. UPDATE: The day after I wrote this article, Stanford hired their legendary quarterback Andrew Luck as their first football general manager. Such a splashy hire is a strong signal they they remain serious about rebuilding their football program. Best of luck — Frank.

I Remember Halloween! (and not fading 2-6 NFL favorites hosting a 6-2 visitor)

Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

It is not often teams with a 2-6 record are favored against teams with a 6-2 record -- but that was the case on Halloween with the New York Jets favored by less than a field goal against the Houston Texans. This was a clear Pros versus Joes game with the supposed "sharps" on the Jets with the public taking the team with the far better record and the better quarterback (and, yes, in 2024, C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback versus Aaron Rodgers).I endorsed the Jets in this situation -- and, no, this is not my wink-wink message for someone to call the police because I have been kidnapped by saying something very much out of character. I have been quite skeptical about this New York Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But they are favored tonight for a reason I do not invoke empirical situational angles often in my (long) Reports — but I do track this information in my database. In the last 20 years in the NFL games played in October, November, or December, there have been only eight teams who were not winning more than 25% of their games favored against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Those favorites with bad records have a 5-2-1 ATS mark going into tonight’s game. New York held the Patriots to just 247 yards last week and did not commit a turnover despite losing that game. In that “accomplishment”, they became the first team since 2013 to lose an NFL game despite holding their opponent to under 250 yards and not committing a turnover in that game. Before that game last Sunday, NFL teams who did not commit a turnover and did not allow 250 or more yards were 220-0 straight up. I do not like the chemistry and cohesion of this team at all — but perhaps that there are now 2-6 on the season, it fits their character to finally pull out a win in prime-time on Halloween night. The pressure was off at this point. They are not going to make the playoffs since that would require them to most likely reel off eight wins in their final nine games. They have an 0-4 record in games decided by six points or less. And now they were playing a wounded Texans team that is without C.J. Stroud’s top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. Now Houston goes back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. The Texans were getting outscored on the road by -1.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Jets were outscoring their opponents at home by +5.6 PPG and winning the yardage battle by +119.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Sure enough, the Jets found a way to win the game by a 21-13 score. As is kind of suspected, strange events were in store for this game played on Halloween night. Rookie Malachi Corley seemed to score the opening touchdown of the game -- but he decided to drop the ball before he crossed into the end zone with the ball bouncing in the end zone. I did my own research on this and it turns out that rather than the Jets scoring a touchdown, the result was a touchdown. If you want one play to define this team's season, this was it. But later, the Texans took three points off the board midway through when New York committed a personal foul on the field goal attempt by putting a knee to the Houston snapper. Down 14-10 at the time, Houston accepted the penalty to try to score a go-ahead touchdown. But when their drive stalled, the Texans tried for another field goal -- but this time the shorter attempt shanked off the left post. To paraphrase Glenn Danzig with the Misfits: "I remember (its) Halloween!"Rather than needing one more score to cover the point spread with a 14-13 lead, the Jets now just need to milk the clock to win (and cover the point spread). On a crucial third down play, Rodgers connected with Davante Adams for the game (and point spread) clinching touchdown. Be wary of fading unlikely favorites when hosting a team with a much better record -- especially on Halloween!

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 4 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part Two -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 AFC Teams

Thursday, Sep 26, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).BALTIMORE RAVENS: The philosophical change on offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was (mostly) wildly successful. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. The Baltimore offense ranked third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. But after a dominant 13-4 regular season where they outscored their opponents by +12.1 Points-Per-Game and then blowing out Houston by a 34-10 score in the AFC Divisional playoff round, the struggles in the playoffs reared its ugly head again for Jackson. Despite hosting the AFC Championship Game and holding Patrick Mahomes scoreless in the second half, Baltimore still suffered a 17-10 loss to Kansas City. What is there to take from that disappointment? On the one hand, perhaps there would have been a different outcome if Zay Flowers did not get the football spiked out of his hands as he was approaching the goal line. Later, Jackson threw an ill-advised pass into the endzone that was picked off from the triple coverage. On the other hand, why was it that the Ravens only handed the ball off to a running back eight times in that game despite a good offensive line that helped them lead the league in rushing? Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took away the run and dared Baltimore to win the game behind Jackson’s arm — and they couldn’t do it. Again. Jackson has a 58-19 record as a starter but is just 2-4 in the postseason. And then there were the losses in the offseason. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The defense returns nine starters from a group that led the league by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG — but that unit will miss linebacker Patrick Queen who signed with their arch-rival Pittsburgh. The bigger concern on that side of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr takes over defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. General manager signed the 30-year-old Derrick Henry to a two-year deal — but he is coming off a career-low 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry and has plenty of tread on the tires. Perhaps the second half mistakes against the Chiefs were just part of the journey this franchise needs to take under Jackson before climbing the mountain. But it sure seems like a missed opportunity, in hindsight. BUFFALO BILLS: The conventional wisdom is that the Bills began running the ball more when Ken Dorsey was fired and replaced by Joe Brady as offensive coordinator on November 14th — but I witnessed the seeds of this transformation earlier in the second half of their game against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football after going into halftime trailing by a 6-0 score. Buffalo patiently leaned on their running game to grind out a 14-9 victory in what I saw as a foreshadowing of what this team will become moving forward. I can only imagine the verbal lashing head coach Sean McDermott unleashed on Dorsey at halftime of that game. Dorsey was fired about a month later. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are now gone — but I am encouraged by these moves. Sure, these changes can be evaluated as “addition via subtraction.” Diggs was inefficient and a diva wanting the ball — and Allen froze him out in the second half of the season. Davis perpetually underachieved. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applaud McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons. I think a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world. I do worry about the deep ball threat. And I worry about a defense that is replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. But, I like the shift in direction of this team as it better synchs with McDermott’s defensive tendencies. Buffalo faces a tough schedule, but I like the philosophical changes. CINCINNATI BENGALS: At first glance, I want to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. Can they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? If the young defensive players take the next step, then Cincinnati can certainly compete for a Super Bowl — assuming Burrow fully recovers. But the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters. DENVER BRONCOS: If head coach Sean Payton shares only one thing in common with former quarterback Russell Wilson, it’s this: they both saw a mark in Broncos CEO and owner Greg Penner. To be fair, maybe all three of these multimillionaires share the same affinity since Penner married into the WalMart family and is now the chairman of the company. All that Walmart money is now paying Wilson $85 million for the next two years to not wear the Denver colors in a decision made by Payton who is getting paid $18 million per year. What better way to get close to completing that five-year contract than by making the difficult (and convenient) decision that the entire edifice must be torn down? It would be foolish to look too much into the team’s 7-4 finish that resulted in a respectable 8-9 record last season. Four of their wins were by three points or fewer (and eight combined points) with a midseason five-game winning streak fueled by forcing 16 turnovers). The Broncos led the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries which is some turnover good fortune reminiscent of Payton’s Super Bowl run with New Orleans in 2010. That level of turnover success — nor a trip back to the Super Bowl — occurred again for Payton in the Big Easy. Denver got outscored by -3.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -71.net Yards-Per-Game. There is a fundamental talent problem for this team. When eating $55 million in dead cap money this season from the Wilson contract, the immediate results were that All-Pro safety Justin Simmons along with linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry were lost in free agency. Payton and fourth-year general manager George Paton tried to fill holes with retreads in the free agency market including several of the players on the Saints who played for Payton in his final waning years. But Payton inherited a roster last season that only had four remaining players drafted in Day One of Day Two from 2018-2020 — and only wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. made any sort of impact from the rookie class last season. The hope is that Payton found his next Drew Brees in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, so no pressure on anybody not making $18 mill a year. Nix is praised for football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Ducks that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like the guy last year but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. After the humiliating 70-20 loss to Miami when they surrendered 726 yards of offense, Denver did play better on defense. Benching some aging veterans helped. But Payton game-managed the rest of the way with the offense burning time off the clock with his old Taysom Hill playbook. All those defensive takeaways made chicken salad out of you-know-what — and that was with Simmons and Jewell! Perhaps with Payton the clear alpha dog now, his impact on the culture continues to pull out close games with a roster getting closer and closer to his vision. But he needs Nix to make an immediate positive impact given the rest of the roster. HOUSTON TEXANS: I found it hard to be optimistic about the Texans going into last year after a three-year run where they had an 11-38-1 record. But rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans had an immediate impact on this team — and C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the NFL. Several indicators suggest that the Texans were fortunate to win seven more regular season games than they did in 2022-23. They only outgained their opponents by +11.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They had a 7-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were outclassed in the AFC Divisional Playoff round in a 34-10 loss to Baltimore. But, on the other hand, general manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level of this roster. He traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to offer more weapons for Stroud. He signed 14 free agents and drafted another five players for a defense that ranked 14th in the NFL by allowing 330.7 total YPG. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. There may be too much talent in the locker room with Stroud that can push away the Regression Gods.INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: The easy question regarding the Colts is how good second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson can be — and can he stay healthy? I think the real question is how good the supporting cast is for him or the 39-year-old Joe Flacco beyond the quarterback position. General manager Chris Ballard’s priorities in the offseason were resigning wide receiver Michael Pittman, defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and linebacker Zaire Franklin — but those were lateral moves for a team that got outgained by -13.0 net Yards-Per-Game and benefitted from winning six of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. Indianapolis ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 349.8 Yards-Per-Game — and they were in the bottom half of the league in both run defense and pass defense. Is the talent level better on this team? Maybe Richardson is a generational talent — but he has only started 17 games in college and professional football and his opponents had four games in the NFL to break down all the supposed “revolutionary” ways first-year head coach Shane Steichen was deploying his talents. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: My biggest question regarding this team last year was if they were closer to the team that lost by only a touchdown on the road to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs or the one that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs. I concluded: “It seems as if the ‘plan’ is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks.” With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight vision, some conclusions can be drawn. Lawrence did not take a step forward: in his last seven games, he had seven touchdown passes by seven interceptions. His defenders will remind everyone of the four various injuries he tried to play through down the stretch. Yet, he led the NFL with 21 turnovers — 14 giveaways from interceptions and another seven from lost fumbles. He has 60 career turnovers in his first three years in the league. Ridley was better than I expected with 76 receptions for 1016 yards and eight touchdowns — but he was not resigned perhaps given the compensation package that would have been due Atlanta in the language of the original deal worked out by general manager Trent Baalke. More on him in a moment. In regards the underachieving linebackers, the results were mixed. Josh Allen validated himself completely with 17.5 sacks last year. Walker added 10 sacks but still seems to be underachieving his #1 pick in the 2022 draft given his size and mobility. Lloyd pass defense improved. Yet this was a team that got outgained by -3.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The first-level analytics suggest this remains just a .500 team rather than one that reached another level two years ago. Win six of their last seven in 2022-23, lose of six in to close out 2023-24 — that’s the noise of a .500 team. But I want to take a step back to consider Baalke, the former San Francisco 49ers general manager who got into an internal fight with Jim Harbaugh which led to Harbaugh getting fired and replaced by Jim Tomasula. After Tomasula’s 5-11 campaign, the Niners sacked him for Chip Kelly who promptly oversaw a 2-15 season that got both Baalke and him fired. What if Baalke’s 2011 Executive of the Year Award had more to do with the wizardry of Harbaugh as a head coach than Baalke’s general manager acumen? What if Baalke has been living off those Harbaugh vapors for years? After being hired as the Director of Player Personnel by Jacksonville — not exactly the model franchise of organization competence under owner Shahid Khan (father of Tony Khan, founder and co-owner of AEW, the professional wrestling company where as the booker he has his bloated fan-boy stable of wrestlers flip from heel to face as often as Lawrence was injured last year, which actually may explain a lot) — he was soon promoted to general manager nine months later. Perhaps seeing Baalke as the NFL’s version of former WCW honcho Eric Bischoff is the appropriate comparison to keep this wrestling analogy alive. Bischoff’s MO was to poach talent from the WWF and rework their storylines. Baalke isn’t working off scripts — but he does draft NFL talent as if wakes up at 3 PM ET just in time for the national CBS-TV game featuring the SEC. Baalke had nine draft picks last April — and seven of those players came from SEC programs (three from LSU!). The non-SEC players came from the Big 12 which may be a result of commercial breaks when he turned on a random game on ABC-TV or ESPN. I got curious, and this is not an aberration. In 2023, 12 of Baalke’s 13 draft picks came from Power Five conference teams with the exception of the offensive tackle he drafted from Appalachian State may be resulting from a Thursday Night ESPN viewing. In 2022, five of his seven picks were from Power Five Conferences. In 2021 in his inaugural season with new head coach Urban Meyer who was going to tear up the NFL like he did the SEC and Big Ten, he drafted another eight of nine players from Power Five conference schools. And, sure, I get it: the better athletes play at Power Five conference schools. But so do the other 31 teams in the NFL get that too. It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chancing on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns. Of course, if Baalke’s reliance on simply banking on the 29 SEC players he has drafted in his career was producing great results, then why mess with the formula (that everyone already knows about). Instead, this remains a .500 team. My question in 2021 was whether Harbaugh or Baalke deserved more of the credit for the 49ers’ Super Bowl appearance. Three years later, Harbaugh won a National Championship at Michigan while Baalke’s Jaguars teams have gone 22-31 with one playoff appearance. Baalke drafts like he’s former Raiders’ general manager Mike Mayock, albeit with the cover-his-ass political skills. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last year was supposed to be a transition season for the defending champions. The Chiefs cemented their dynasty legacy by winning the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four seasons after outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles. They lost eight veterans from that team including five starters. The wide receiver room was in a full-rebuild one year removed from the decision to not sign Tyreek Hill to an expensive second contract. Two starters were lost on the offensive line. Yet Kansas City still managed to play two games on the road in the postseason — at Buffalo and at Baltimore — en route to winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons by beating San Francisco in overtime by a 25-22 score. Now Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the team look to make NFL history by winning three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. The scary aspect of this team is that they are not likely to score only 21.8 PPG this season, ranking 15th in the league. They also are not likely to be saddled by a -11 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 28th worst in the NFL. Kansas City’s rebuilt wide receiver group was responsible for a league-leading 44 dropped passes that accounted for 386 yards lost in the air (even before potential Yards after the Catch). The wide receivers also lost nine fumbles. That explains why the Chiefs scored -7.4 fewer PPG last year. Veach addressed this unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. Both those additions offer Mahomes speed and the deep threat he has missed since Hill departed for Miami. After posting 48 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions in his first four seasons on passes of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes has just four touchdown passes and six interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards in the last two seasons with Hill. This renewed downfield threat should open things up for Kelce and second-year pro Rashee Rice who developed into Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver option in the second half of the season. And while Rice has a likely suspension looming for off-the-field issues and Brown suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason that will keep him out four-to-six weeks, both will likely be available when it is time for the Chiefs to rev things up in the postseason to make NFL history with a third straight Super Bowl title. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Last year in the offseason, I was concerned about head coach Josh McDaniels’ inability to address the culture issues that plagued his time in Denver. It turns out he learned little from his mistakes. The Raiders celebrated like it was 1999 when he was fired on Halloween — and proceeded to go 5-4 under their last nine games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Now the Raiders will proceed with their their third head coach and third general manager since 2022 with the interim tag removed from Pierce’s title and owner Mark Davis tapping former Los Angeles Chargers general manager Tom Telesco as the new GM. At least Tedesco’s past draft history puts him at least at replacement level — a clear step up from Dave Ziegler and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock (the latter who drafted like he woke up at noon Vegas time to watch Saturday college football to account for his deep scouting). Perhaps Davis concluded that since Circus Circus is on the north end of the strip, there was room for a second circus on the strip south of Tropicana Boulevard. The drafting and free agency mayhem under the previous two regimes leaves many positions thin. The good news is that the Las Vegas defense could be quite good. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is the coronated heart and soul of this team with his endorsement of Pierce helping him retain the gig. With the free agent signing of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins from Miami, opposing front lines face a blocking dilemma from the likely mismatches based on those choices. Since Pierce took over as head coach, the Raiders allowed only 16.0 Points-Per-Game in those final nine games — and that side of the ball is one of the few areas with continuity with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham back for his third season running the defense. The biggest question is the offense. I like Telesco’s decision to not pay running back Josh Jacobs a big second contract after he averaged only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. But while Samir White led the NFL in rushing yards the final four weeks of the season, the former Georgia Bulldog has never been a bell cow even going back to college. Alexander Mattison was signed from Minnesota but only after he failed in the bell cow role for the Vikings after they decided to move on from Dalvin Cook. The wide receiver room is intriguing with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers alongside second-year tight end Michael Mayer and the latest transformational tight end prospect in Brock Bowers. I would love to see a commitment to 12 personnel with both tight ends on the field with Bowers taking on a Travis Kelce role. But is first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy that guy? His time in Chicago devolved quickly into a “who to blame” battle between QB Jalen Hurts and himself. His previous stop was as the quarterback coach in Green Bay in the who-to-blame/who-to-credit shit show between Aaron Rodgers, Matt LeFluer, Nathaniel Hackett, and himself. And then there is the quarterback issue. Rookie Aidan O’Connell was solid in his time on the field as a rookie last year and had eight touchdown passes without an interception in his final four stars — but the quality of competition was not top-notch. Gardner Minshew was brought in as a free agent from Indianapolis. I applaud Telesco for not overpaying for someone like Kirk Cousins, something the past regimes may have done to bide time in their showcase on the Strip. Pierce is a players’ coach who deserves credit for some subtle tactical changes on offense like more play-action and more emphasis on getting the ball to their damn play-makers over supposed schematic flare. I can see the Raiders having a very good defense. I can see the offense being very interesting in 12 personnel with Adams and Meyers offsetting those two tight ends (even with either quarterback under center). But Getsy calling the plays for this vision? I am in a holding pattern, on that front. MIAMI DOLPHINS: The biggest priority in the offseason last year seemed to be figuring out how to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy after he suffered what was probably three concussions during the season. He is the essential point guard that makes head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense go. McDaniels tweaked the playbook away from some of the concepts Kyle Shanahan deploys as injuries at QB appear endemic to his system. Tagovailoa bulked up and took jiu-jitsu classes to train his body how to fall. Whatever it was, it worked as Tagovailoa played an entire season for the first time since 2018. But will that lead to some complacency concerning the ever-lingering concern of a professional athlete who has had multiple concussions? Tagovailoa slimmed down in the offseason — is he planning on running more? It is fair to say the offense is limited at times since McDaniels and Tagovailoa are highly reluctant to attempt to gain yards from QB run plays. And while the media proclaimed McDaniels an offensive genius by his second game as head coach of the Dolphins, the dirty little secret is that his play-calling tends to get predictable in short-yardage, on third downs, and in the red zone. I wonder if the urgency to keep his quarterback safe limits his flexibility in these moments. Miami loves to emphasize their speed — but perhaps their league-leading 401.3 Yards-Per-Game last season is more a reflection of them being Flat Track Bullies than the genius of McDaniels? The Dolphins won 10 of their 11 games against sub-.500 teams last year — but they lost six of their seven games against teams with a winning record including a 28-point loss to Buffalo, a 37-point loss to Baltimore, and then their 26-7 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs. The problems Miami has in cold weather are well-documented with those conditions neutralizing their speed advantage. But good teams tend to have speed too — so maybe this offense simply hits a wall when facing similar talent? And good teams tend to expose the Dolphins' defense which was supposed to significantly improve under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. While Miami gave up -0.5 fewer Points-Per-Game and -19.5 YPG, their defense ranked just 19th in Defensive DVOA — and there was speculation that Fangio clashed with players inside the building. I wonder if Fangio’s frustration was a by-product of the culture McDaniel has fostered. Fangio is now gone — and McDaniels’ third defensive coordinator in three seasons is Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Gone is star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins who signed for a big payday in Las Vegas. Cornerback Xavien Howard was a salary cap casualty. The unit was not helped late in the season when both Jean Phillips and Bradley Chubb suffered season-ending injuries. The hope is that both linebackers are ready by the start of the season — but this unit will take a big hit if they cannot return to form. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster the unit led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. But it is not hard to imagine things unraveling on that side of the football.NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: After 24 years, the Patriots move on to Year One of the post-Bill Belichick era after they bottomed out with a 4-13 record last season. The offense stagnated without Tom Brady under center — they tied for last in the league by scoring only 13.9 Points-Per-Game. Why did this happen? (1) Poor coaching? (2) Mac Jones was not the answer at quarterback? (3) Lack of talent at wide receiver? I tend to think the blame on the coaching staff — even when Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were moonlighting as offensive coaches two years ago — was overblown. In hindsight, Jones looks like a head case. Certainly, it is fair to say that Belichick did not put him in a position to succeed with skill position talent — especially at wide receiver. Jones’ lack of mobility compounded that problem. Jones is gone — and rookie Drake May is the future at quarterback. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator — and with the hiring of special assistant Ben McAdoo, the offense looks to be adopting the West Coast principles of the Green Bay offense before Matt LaFleur arrived. McAdoo was the previous Packers' offensive coordinator with Van Pelt the Quarterbacks Coach. Van Pelt is likely to deploy a run-first approach that will set up play-action passes and, hopefully, more explosive plays. The team did sign Jacoby Brissett as a veteran placeholder at QB who enjoyed his best professional season in 2022 under Van Pelt’s guidance. New general manager Eliot Wolf drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the second and fourth rounds, but it remains a question of whether either is a future WR1. The offensive line should be solid, albeit with questions at left tackle. However, there is continuity and cohesion on the other side of the ball with a defense that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. But even Belichick’s harshest critics would be foolish to suggest he was not still a defensive guru. Will the defense take a step back now without Belichick’s touch that ensured the tackling fundamentals were always sound (seven straight seasons top five in fewest broken tackles) and took away their opponents' top weapon (New England was third in Defensive DVOA against WR1s last year)? Wolf did not add any significant pieces on that side of the ball. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense. Better play at quarterback with at least some upgrade at the skill positions along with another tough defense could have the Patriots fighting for a playoff spot (remember, they made the playoffs three years ago and were still mathematically alive going into Week 17 two seasons ago). On the other hand, if the defense takes a step back without Belichick and the offensive problems continue, it could be a very long season in Foxboro. NEW YORK JETS: In last year’s offseason in the first year with Aaron Rodgers under center, I questioned how the locker room would deal with all the distractions that have become part of the package of having the former MVP at quarterback. General manager Joe Douglass and head coach Robert Saleh were on the hot seat and seemingly going all-in on the Rodgers gamble. I also wondered if the Rodgers reconnection with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator during some of his best seasons in Green Bay, would be fruitful or was Hackett simply his “yes man” who got exposed as a coach out of his element in his one season as the Denver head coach. A year later, we lack answers to those questions since Rodgers lasted only four snaps before he suffered his season-ending Achilles injury. Douglass, Saleh, and even Hackett were given mulligans after that injury on Monday Night Football. But now the seats are even hotter with everything banking on Rodgers successfully recovering from a serious leg injury at 41 years old. And the distractions keep marching on. Rodgers kept teasing that his recovery was ahead of schedule and that he could make a near-miraculous return late in the season. While less than a fourth-month recovery from a torn Achilles is rare, Rodgers claimed his innovative training and healing techniques (including listening to dolphin sounds) would have him ready. But inevitably in a scene reminiscent of NBA players begging to “hold me back” from on-the-court fights that no one ever planned to initiate, Rodgers’ services were never required in late December with the Jets limping to another 7-10 record. Since then, some of Rodgers’ antics include a few days where he was being considered to be the Vice Presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy’s vanity presidential bid before later blowing off mandatory training camp sessions for his “previously scheduled” trip to Egypt. It is hard not to consider Rodgers simply a carnival barker at this point of his career when he keeps on sounding like a carnival barker. He plans to be just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and return from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. New York’s offensive line could be much better after left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson, and right tackle Morgan Moses were signed as free agents, and then Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu was drafted in the first round. The Jets have intriguing talent at the skill positions. The defense should remain elite with defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams, and cornerback Sauce Gardner giving them All-Pros at all three levels. Peyton Manning was able to win a Super Bowl in Denver behind an outstanding defense despite being past his prime. This team does not need another MVP season from Rodgers to make a deep run. But the pressure cooker is tight for teams that are in Super Bowl or bust mode — especially ones that have not even made the playoffs since 2010. If Rodgers can’t walk the walk (even after dolphin sound therapy) — or gets injured again — things could implode very quickly.PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.Best of luck -- Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 3 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Thursday, Sep 26, 2024

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).ATLANTA FALCONS: I do not mind the individual decisions the Falcons made in the offseason — but after adding them all up, I am troubled by the sum of its parts. It seems clear that owner Arthur Blank no longer wanted to be at parties having to defend his underwhelming quarterback room. So general manager Terry Fontenot invests $180 million ($100 million guaranteed) on a 36-year-old quarterback with a 1-3 career postseason record and spotty results in prime-time coming off an Achilles injury. OK, Kirk Cousins was the best available quarterback in free agency. And then Fontenot drafts Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the NFL draft despite him his injury history (two ACL tears), and his older age (three years older than the 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy). OK, Penix has a great arm and perhaps coaching can help his touch when under pressure. But making both moves together incurs some heavy opportunity costs that will make another Super Bowl run for Blank even more difficult. Cousins is Plan A — but using the eighth pick on Penix cost them a top-level offensive lineman or wide receiver, or the top defensive player in the draft (given the initial run of offensive players). By the way, if Cousins has not recovered from Achilles' injury, then veteran Taylor Heinicke is likely their Plan B Day One starting quarterback. Plan C is then Penix — but how does this work? The ideal scenario is that Cousins wins a couple of Super Bowls … and then somehow gives up his job to make room for Penix in two or three years. OK, then Penix begins his starting career at 26 or 27 years old and two or three years into his rookie deal. That is not the best way to maximize value out of your franchise quarterback drafted in the top eight picks (but they do have two Super Bowl rings!). But even then, the pivot to Penix loses the guaranteed money in the Cousins contract ($50 million? $25 million?) that could be used to sign other players to help the new era. Of course, even winning one Super Bowl with Cousins under center is unlikely — his two postseason victories since high school are equal to what McCarthy achieved with Michigan since December. Any early missteps will have the fans calling on Penix to get a chance. Does the locker room hold? There are a lot of ways this plan goes sideways. I want to step back to consider Atlanta’s rehiring of Raheem Morris as their head coach. I like Morris and I think he deserved an opportunity — and I tend to like head coaches in their second opportunity. But the former Tampa Bay head coach was already in the building as the defensive coordinator for Dan Quinn in 2020-21! If he is such a bright star (and maybe he is), then Blank cannot let him leave in 2021 after he first Quinn! Instead, Blank hires Arthur Smith, the son of the owner of FedEx, but fires him three years later. OK, maybe the additional three years in Los Angeles as the Rams defensive coordinator was the experience Morris needed to take the final step in his development — but Blank had no guarantee he could ever get him back. They are is an internal inconsistency with all these decisions — and I suspect they all have the common denominator of a meddling owner getting antsy in the twilight of his life. Blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl may do that to all of us. Perhaps hiring Sean McVay’s passing game coordinator Zac Robinson unlocks the vast potential of running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Perhaps Morris overseeing the defense again helps the younger players develop (and not miss the losses of veteran defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Bud Dupree). Perhaps making sure the quarterback room is in the best shape possible is the most important consideration. OK … but there is a haphazardness regarding these major decisions — and the writing is already on the wall explaining how this experiment failed if all does not go according to (Blank’s) plan. CAROLINA PANTHERS: The only area in which I feel comfortable prognosticating about the Panthers is that their defense is going to take several steps back from ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 293.9 Yards-Per-Game. That appears to be a number helped by Carolina’s negative game states and anemic offense. Despite their two victories last year, they did not play a down in the fourth quarter last year where they enjoyed a lead. The deeper analytics expose this: the Panthers ranked 26th in EPA per Play allowed and 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense replaces many of their best players — most notable linebackers Brent Burns and Frankie Luvu who combined for 49 pressures on the quarterback while being both strong run defenders. The likely regression of the defense is the subtext for the biggest question regarding the potential of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. In his defense, his support at the skill positions was laughable. When 33-year-old Adam Thielen catches 103 balls, it’s not because the “guy still has it.” The picture boy in the dictionary for empty calories only averaged 9.8 Yards-Per-Reception as defenses were overjoyed to allow another dump off to the zero YAC risk. With all five starters returning on the offensive line, pass protection was supposed to be an area of strength. Instead, some injuries and the regression of second-year left tackle Ikem Ekwonu led to a nightmare where Young was sacked 62 times — and the -477 sack yards lost was the third most in NFL history. It is easy to jump to conclusions about the 5’11 QB seemed undersized coming into the league at 204 pounds. But after Carolina traded WR1 D.J. Moore to Chicago (who wanted to help their young QB), Young was left with Terrace Marshall, free agent D.J. Chark, and rookie Jonathan Bingo. His dump-offs to Thielen make sense. And then there is the dysfunctional management approach of venture capital GOD! turned NFL owner David Tepper who pulled the trigger on his third midseason head coaching firing in the last five seasons in between dumping his next vodka-tonics on his heckling fan base. So quarterback whisperer Frank Reich is out and replaced by the next quarterback whisperer flavor of the month in Dave Canales. And maybe the 43-year-old has great potential — but two years ago at this time, he was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle. I worry about his inexperience as a manager of a team — and that worry is compounded by his decision to call his own plays — but when you just called the plays for a Tampa Bay offense that ranked the fourth worst in first and second down efficiency using the metrics of the Football Outsiders’ DVOA numbers, how could one resist? Rookie general manager Dan Morgan traded for Pittsburgh wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round. Morgan also overpaid for two guards in the free agent market — and the $73 million cap money dollars in their offensive line this season shatters the NFL record. Maybe this will truly help unlock Young and improve an offense that was last in the league by only generating 265.3 Yards-Per-Game? I think it is too early to come to conclusions about Young — but it is easy to be skeptical. CHICAGO BEARS: The hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft. General manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odenze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. But the defense should be the better unit that made a dramatic improvement in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — but we are still talking about a rookie quarterback. DALLAS COWBOYS: Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. The top running back may be Ezekiel Elliott who they let go last season in free agency. Another of those three significant free agent hires was running back Royce Freeman, who barely got time with the Los Angeles Rams last year. There is a theory that all Jones cares about is keeping the Cowboys in the news. With McCarthy and quarterback Dan Prescott headlining a long list, the hot seat is a rather wide this season in Dallas. DETROIT LIONS: After almost upsetting the 49ers on the road in San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl, the Lions are a trendy pick to get the opportunity to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nine starters return from an offense that has ranked in the top-four Yards-Per-Game in two straight seasons — and they scored at least 30 points in 11 games last year. If you like teams with great offensive lines (and I do), then it is easy to love Detroit’s group that returns four starters including a pair of All-Pros in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, The skill positions are loaded with stars that will be drafted early in all the fantasy drafts. But there are concerns. A lot is being asked of third-year wide receiver Jameson Williams to step up as a credible option despite catching only 24 balls last year after missing half the season due to a gambling suspension. He missed almost his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL in January when he was still playing at Alabama. General manager Brad Holmes traded up for him anyway — as he is wont to do. Williams is a deep threat — but if he is only a deep threat and continues to be flaky, then this offense may lack a reliable second option at wide receiver to complement slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. A second pass-rushing defensive end is also an area of weakness. Led by Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit led the NFL in pressure rate on the quarterback — but they were just 23 in actual sacks. The Lions have James Houston back from injury last year after he registered eight sacks in seven games as a rookie — but was that a fluke or a flash of the potential of the former sixth-round pick? Third-year pro Josh Paschal has not developed as a second-round pick. Holmes signed defensive end Marcus Davenport away from Minnesota — but he has played more than 13 games just once in his six-year career. Defensive coordinator generates pressure by being aggressive with blitz calls — but this only puts more pressure on the cornerbacks which are the weak link of this team. The Lions ranked 27th in the league by allowing 247.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and they were last by surrendering 69 receptions of 20 or more yards. After the team cut their top cornerback Cam Sutton after his off-the-field incident that led to an NFL suspension, Holmes made the secondary his highest priority by signing for Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis III and then trading up twice in the draft (of course) to select Alabama corner Terrion Arnold in the first round and Missouri corner Ennis Rakastraw in the second round. Kudos to Holmes for aggressively identifying an area of extreme need — but he did the last season as well. Holmes signed Sutton as a free agent from Pittsburgh last year as well as cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — and he traded up (of course) to draft safety Brian Branch. The Branch pick looks great in hindsight — but Moseley suffered an injury early in Game One and Gardner-Johnson missed most of the year with an injury. Depth at cornerback became a significant drawback in the second half of the season. Now Sutton and Gardner-Johnson are gone. These plans are not foolproof. Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback. Maybe Holmes' plan continues to work. But for a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an after thought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy, to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league. GREEN BAY PACKERS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: There are wildly different opinions regarding the state of this organization — and most of the disagreement starts with the evaluation of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first two years running the football operations. Coming off a 13-4 regular season, did Adofo-Mensah blow the Vikings’ opportunity to win the NFC North last year by not resigning running back Dalvin Cook? Minnesota only generated seven rushing touchdowns last year. And he is making this worse by not resigning veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Or, did Adofo-Mensah wisely not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign that ended with a seven-point loss at home to the New York Giants after a regular season where they got outscored and outgained? Despite a 7-10 campaign last year with Cousins missing nine games to injury and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson out seven games to injury, the Vikings only got outscored by 18 points over the entire season, just a 15 net difference in points from the previous year (and the 13-4 regular season mark). Adofo-Mensah began his tenure embracing a “competitive rebuild.” Resigning Jefferson for another four years while letting someone else take the chance to pay tons of money for an aging quarterback coming off a torn ACL seems pretty wise to me. And seemingly keeping to the script for this franchise, they selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the NFL draft who drew as divisive of pre-draft coverage as I have ever seen. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 21-year-old ran a 4.48 seconds time in the 40-yard dash. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” And with one set of pundits who I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, they made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated last year. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game not as effective as it was the year before. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — even before what he can potentially do as a rookie. But the Adofe-Mensah haters have plenty of ammunition to continue to hate. I’m kinda bullish of what McCarthy can do under head coach Kevin O’Connell’s guidance with weapons like Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockensen (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). The analytics suggested Minnesota was an eight-win team two years ago (their Pythagorean win tally was 8.4) — and they only dropped to 8.0 Pythagorean wins last year. The running back room should be better with Aaron Jones who averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season and thrives when the QB is under center. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores oversaw a unit that improved from 31st in the league in total defense to 16th by allowing only 333.2 total Yards-Per-Game. While Flores is aggressive, he also disguises and misdirects his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. While this team is unlikely to replicate the 13-4 record from two seasons ago, this might very well be the best overall team under the O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah regime in their three seasons on the job. NEW YORK GIANTS: It was a fateful January afternoon when the Giants visited Minnesota to play the Vikings in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs two seasons ago. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. New York pulled off the upset to advance to the NFC Divisional Round. In the offseason, the Vikings management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than sign him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. General manager Joe Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal. He resigned running back Saquon Barkley at a base of $10.1 million. New York kicked off their season with a confidence that was quickly shattered in a humiliating 40-0 loss in Dallas. Jones was sacked eight times by a disastrous offensive line that would go on to allow 85 sacks on the year, the second most in NFL history since they began tracking that stat in 1982. Jones got sacked 28 times in five games before going down with a knock injury. When he returned later in the season, he tore his ACL in the second quarter against Las Vegas. The Giants closed the season with a 6-11 record. As Minnesota drafted their hopeful next franchise quarterback as they continue to rebuild, head coach Brian Daboll along with Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. But he hired the previous “bums” — and former defensive coordinator Don Martindale had a good reputation in the league. Daboll is a screamer on the headset during the games — an act that wears thin. Martindale’s defenses are blitz-happy — but that also protected a young secondary and helped New York tie for NFL-lead with 31 takeaways (all after Week Four). Injuries played a big role — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning to a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round. But I have to go back to Schoen and his decision-making. His first two drafts have resulted in far too many misses: first-round pick right tackle Evan Deal, third-round wide receiver picks WanDale Robinson and Jalen Hyatt. He continues to sign retread after retread in free agency. Just on the offensive line, after adding four free agents and drafting two rookies in the first three rounds in his first draft in 2022, he signed another five free agents this offseason — but did not draft an offensive lineman. Perhaps Schoen knows he no longer has the time to wait on a rookie to develop after all six of his acquisitions in his first year have all seemed to flop (only his two draft picks remain on the team)? A healthy and improved offensive line could help Jones — and adding Nabors may finally address the gaping hole at WR1. But with Daboll’s leadership skills now in question, it will not seem like it will take much for this organization to implode, yet again. And that would put them at least three years behind that Vikings team they upset in early 2022. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. On the other hand, Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team.Best of luck -- Frank.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024: Pretending "Let Russ Cook" Was Never a Thing

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.Best of luck — Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 1 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Champions League Final Was Destined to be Low-Scoring

Sunday, Jun 30, 2024

I expected a lower-scoring affair in the UEFA Champions League finals match between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid — and Real Madrid came away with a 2-0 victory to win the European club championship. Tactics make fights (and soccer matches) -- and both of these sides preferred to play in a defensive midblock position. They both preferred to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of the head coaches was going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti was likely to have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top could create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach was likely to goad Dortmund into a counter-attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. It set up to be a cagey affair -- and I did not expect the approach from either side to change if they gave up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal was going to be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent. Both of these sides saw their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they had given up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals. Real Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also had the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, but he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022. Only six combined goals had been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four had seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Under 2. For these reasons, our UEFA Champions League Total of the Year was on the under. The match was still scoreless at half-time. Dani Carvajal broke the game open for Real Madrid by scoring in the 74th minute. With Borussia Dortmund now needing to play more aggressively, Vinicius was able to score a second goal nine minutes later. Fortunately, Los Blancos kept their clean sheet the rest of the way without scoring a third goal. Best of luck — Frank.

Identifying Underlay Bets in Horse Racing -- The Case of Sierra Leone at the Belmont

Sunday, Jun 30, 2024

Successful handicapping in horse racing involves identifying overlay and underlay values to the betting odds — and reacting accordingly. We want overlays — horses that offer more value than their odds indicate. We should be cautious when it comes to investing in underlay horses since the betting value in those events is not commensurate with the odds.That’s the easy part. The hard part when handicapping horse races is to accurately evaluate and identify these overlay and underlay horses. When handicapping the Belmont Stakes, I concluded that the betting favorite Sierra Leone was an egregious underlay with his morning line odds at 9:5. While the betting action that Saturday went against that horse, Sierra Leone remained the betting favorite at 2:1 when the race started — and I considered him still of underlay value. Sierra Leone was considered the premier closer in this race — and perhaps my feelings would have been different for him if this was 1 1/2 miles. But the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes was temporarily moved to the Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York with Belmont Park undergoing a two-year renovation. This race was only 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, a 1/4 mile shorter than the traditional 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont. His two losses were by a nose including at the Kentucky Derby — but he demonstrated some immaturity in how he attacked that race. Trainer Chad Brown changed his jockey since the Derby — Flavien Prat was now riding him. And there was been an equipment change. Some pundits may see these changes as solving problems. Admittedly, sometimes “adding the blinkers” works — but more often than not, these tinkerings are indicative of a bigger problem. Generally, I think changes like this add risk — and adding risk does not make sense for a 2-1 favorite. The most important race for Sierra Leone was the Kentucky Derby — so the fact that these problems were not identified before then is a problem Brown needs to take responsibility for himself. Furthermore, Sierra Leone’s best Beyer figure was just 99 — and there were three other horses with higher speed figures in their career. While these speed numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, they are an objective way to measure the potential best efforts of the horses in the field. Sierra Leone finished in third place in the race. Dornoch won the race and rewarded his supporters at 17-1 closing odds for some very nice overlay value. Mindframe finished in second place after closing at 6-1 odds. His 103 Beyer figure was the best in the field, but I was hesitant to invest in horse racing for just the third time — and the first time in a graded stakes race. Interestingly, the other two horses with Beyer figures higher than Sierra Leone and in the 100s, Mystik Dan and Seize the Day, finished last and second-to-last. Sometimes the Beyer speed numbers present horses that have already peaked with their performance. Seize the Day who registered a 100 while winning the Preakness Stakes three weeks prior. His previous highest Beyer figure was 88 — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance. How much did Seize the Day benefit from the wet track that day? There were clear skies for the Belmont. It was his third race in five weeks — so fatigue was a concern. Fatigue was also a factor for #3 Mystik Dan who is the only horse to compete at both previous legs of the Triple Crown this year. Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby — and he had a reputation as a mudder before finishing second at the Preakness. Mystik Dan did not run the best technical race at the Derby but benefited from the large field and some bad trips from his top competition. I suspected the Preakness States field was relatively weak — and not beating Seize the Grey that day was an indictment. My handicapping did not all come out roses for the Belmont Stakes. My Best Bet was on #5 Antiquarian who was coming off winning the Peter Pan at 6-1 odds on May 11th. At 12-1 morning line odds, I thought Antiquarian was a nice overlay. I wrote at the time: “I think this race shapes up for another underdog to upset the favorites” — and I got that part right. Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes last year at closing odds in the 7-1 range — and that was also off winning the Peter Pan in his previous start. Granted, the Belmont was at a different track with a different distance — but a recent winner coming into the third leg of the Kentucky Derby certainly has precedent. Antiquarian’s previous race was a sixth place at the Louisiana Derby — but he had to break through the gate to begin that race which put him at a competitive disadvantage given that expenditure of energy. There was a lot to like. Antiquarian was lightly raced with this being just his fifth career start. He had steadily improved from race-to-race — and the distance did not appear to be a problem. He was trained by Todd Pletcher who has won the Belmont Stakes four times in his career. He was being ridden by John Velazquez who is one of the best jockeys in the business. Alas, Antiquarian faded late and finished in fifth place. But in a choice between being wrong about a 2-1 betting favorite or a horse at 12-1 odds I’ll take the overlay every time. Best of luck — Frank.

The Florida Panthers Flexed Their Muscles to WIn Game Five Against the Rangers

Friday, May 31, 2024

Going into Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, Florida had outplayed the Rangers in this series despite it being deadlocked at 2-2. If not for overtime losses in Games Two and Three, the Panthers could be attempting to wrap this series up tonight — or it could already be over. The most dominant aspect of this series had been Florida’s forechecking which has allowed them to dominate puck possession and shot attempts. In Games Three and Four, the Panthers outshot New York by a 197-87 margin pure shot attempts — and by a 77-46 margin shots on target (that were not blocked by a player). Florida had generated 33 High Danger Chances in the last two games while the Rangers have only 14 High Danger Chances. Overall, the Panthers had produced 7.59 expected Goals (xG) in Games Three and Four — and they had held New York to only 3.88 xG in these two games. Florida’s play on defense has been outstanding throughout the postseason. Going into Thursday’s Game Four, they lead all teams in the postseason in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) — and they had given up the fewest High Danger Chances. They had also given up the fewest Power Play goals in the playoffs as well. What was encouraging for the Panthers going into Game Five was their Power Play. After going 0-3 in Game One, they had scored in five of their last 12 Power Plays against the Rangers. They rank second in the postseason in Power Play goals. They rank third in High Danger Chances generated and third in the postseason in Corsi-For Percentage. I expected Florida to put their foot on the accelerator in this crucial Game Five. The Panthers had won 40 of their last 61 games after winning their last game. They had also won 23 of their last 30 games after a win at home — and they had won 10 of their last 14 games after a victory at home by one goal. They had scored seven combined goals in their last two games — and they have won 34 of their last 50 games after scoring three or more goals in their last two games. Florida had also been very good when playing away from home. The Panthers had won 21 of their last 29 road games in the second half of the season — and they had won 13 of their last 19 games on the road in the playoffs in the last two years. New York’s underlying metrics in these playoffs are underwhelming. They went into Thursday’s game ranked 14th in Corsi-For Percentage, ninth in expected Goals Percentage, and last of the final four teams in expected Goals For Percentage. They are last of the final four teams in Power Play goals. They were not getting production from some key players — Mike Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have yet to register a point. Adam Fox may be trying to play through an injury — and he was shaky in Game Four. The Rangers had lost 12 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by one goal. They had also lost 8 of their last 11 games at home after losing in overtime in their last game. Furthermore, New York had lost 5 of their last 8 games when the playoff series was tied — and they had lost 4 of their last 5 fifth games in a playoff series.The Rangers have overcome getting outplayed at even strength with strong play from their special teams. They want into Game Five ranked third in the playoffs on the Power Play. Even better, they have scored five shorthanded goals in the postseason — and Kreider broke his pointless streak by scoring a shorty at the 2:04 mark of the second period. But the Panthers responded just over six minutes later when Gustav Forsling scored at the 8:21 minute mark of the period. Anton Lundell then gave Florida the lead midway through the third period with his goal. Sam Bennett added an empty netter at the 18:08 minute mark of the third period. Alexis Lafreniere cut the deficit in half for the Rangers with fifty seconds left — but the Panthers held on to take the game by a 3-2 score. When an NHL playoff series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game Five goes on to win 78.8% of the time (231-62). Florida outshot New York by a 36-27 margin in Game Five as they continue to outplay the Rangers in most situations fueled by their dominant forecheck. With the books listing the Panthers as a money-line favorite in the -165 range, I will be passing on the side for a potential featured play since the price is higher than my -150 price threshold in the NHL (and MLB). And if New York pulls off the upset on the road, the odds change significantly with them hosting a Game Seven back at home at Madison Square Garden. But the informal Game Five rule did reward the team that has been playing better overall hockey in this series, despite the 2-2 tie in the series. Best of luck — Frank.

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Nate Oats' Commitment to The Analytics Lowers Alabama's Potential Once Again

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The Roller Coaster Ride of Aston Viilla in the English Premier League

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College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 5 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

The Second Half Turnaround of the Baltimore Ravens Defense

When Handicapping Instincts Trump the Analytics: Two Case Studies

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College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 4 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part Two -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 AFC Teams

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 3 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 2 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024: Pretending "Let Russ Cook" Was Never a Thing

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 1 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

The Champions League Final Was Destined to be Low-Scoring

Identifying Underlay Bets in Horse Racing -- The Case of Sierra Leone at the Belmont

The Florida Panthers Flexed Their Muscles to WIn Game Five Against the Rangers

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Nate Oats' Commitment to The Analytics Lowers Alabama's Potential Once Again

My Secret Weapon in Attacking College Basketball Totals: Opponent Possession Average

Super Bowl Autoposy: In-Denial or Don't Believe the Philly Hype?

The Roller Coaster Ride of Aston Viilla in the English Premier League

More Reckless Play-Calling Slays the Lions in the Playoffs Again

Fool's Gold: The Sam Darnold 2024 Season

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 5 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

The Second Half Turnaround of the Baltimore Ravens Defense

When Handicapping Instincts Trump the Analytics: Two Case Studies

Assessing Stanford Football After Year Two of the Troy Taylor Tenure

I Remember Halloween! (and not fading 2-6 NFL favorites hosting a 6-2 visitor)

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 4 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part Two -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 AFC Teams

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 3 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 2 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024: Pretending "Let Russ Cook" Was Never a Thing

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 1 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

The Champions League Final Was Destined to be Low-Scoring

Identifying Underlay Bets in Horse Racing -- The Case of Sierra Leone at the Belmont

The Florida Panthers Flexed Their Muscles to WIn Game Five Against the Rangers

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