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Will Rogers' Sports Picks For Sale

Hot Streaks and Achievements

  • 75-48 ALL SPORTS RUN
  • 100-54 SOCCER RUN
  • 14-4 HOCKEY RUN

Biography

Will “the Coach” Rogers’ conservative approach to sports wagering has produced outsized rewards.

Active since:  2013

Location:  Vancouver Island, BC, Canada

Will “the Coach” Rogers has worked hard his entire life and has achieved success at every level.  Today, Will’s featured on all of the biggest professional handicapping sites in the world, which is a testament to his effort and results.  At the root of Will’s philosophy is that he believes there is always value somewhere, and he wants to help you find it.  Rogers is here to serve as your personal guide through the often confusing world of sports investing, navigating through both opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind — to help you make money.

A "Mr. Wolf" of sorts, these are some of the many attributes Rogers brings to the table:

Success:  a proven winner in every walk of life.

Vision:  a laser-like ability to focus on relevant data.

Resources:  team of proven handicappers; vast network of contacts.

Prior to committing full-time to handicapping, Will had a diverse career.  Five years in university.  Five years in research (quantitative analysis).  Twenty-five years in his second passion: running ever-larger high-end kitchens.  Then, next, working as a trouble shooter, analyzing and resolving issues in failing workplaces.  Along the way, he's rubbed shoulders with the rich and big players — royalty, sometimes.  After achieving stellar results over the past seven years, Will has no doubt this will be the last stage of a rich and rewarding life.

Rogers takes pride in his extensive knowledge about every team on the board.  He has a wide variety of proven handicapping techniques in his arsenal.  Knowing when to utilize and employ each technique is key.  Quite frankly, methods will vary from day-to-day and sport-to-sport.  Nothing works forever.  An ability to shift on the fly and to adjust to changing market conditions keeps Rogers ahead of the curve.

Having witnessed others done in by mismanaging their money, Rogers takes a conservative, long-term approach to investing in sports.  A 10* rated play represents just 0.5 percent of his bankroll.  He's not interested in unnecessary risk and/or high volatility.  Supremely confident in his abilities, he keeps his wager sizes to a minimum and relatively consistent — content in the knowledge that his long-term strategy will produce profits.

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NBA - Over / Under - Tue, May 27

E.C. PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR! *75-48 RUN!*

Will Rogers won his big NBA play but took a couple of tough losses with his soccer and baseball. The 1-2 Monday drops...

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UFC 315: Preview And Picks

Sunday, May 04, 2025

Fight fans are in for a treat this weekend. UFC 315 will be held at the Bell Center in Montreal. The main card is loaded. Both the main event and the co-main event are for titles. Valentina Shevchenko defends her flyweight belt against Manon Fiorot. After that, Jack Della Maddalena will challenge Belal Muhammad for the welterweight crown. Let's take a closer look.  Main Event This was originally supposed to feature Belal Muhammad defending his belt against Shavkak Rakhmonov. When Rakhmonov dropped out, we now get Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad, 36-years old, is 24-3. He's laying -225 at the betting window. Maddalena, 28-years old, has a 17-2 record. He's 7-0 in the UFC. Each standing 5-foot-11, both fighters have similar builds. Muhammad, has won six straight. Before that, he had a no-contest vs. Leon Edwards. Prior to the no-contest, "Remember The Name" had won four in a row. So, that's 10 wins with one no-contest in his last 11 fights. He hasn't lost since 2019. In his last fight, Muhammad dominated Leon Edwards in front of Edward's fans in Manchester. Maddalena's winning streak goes back even further than Belal's. As a matter of fact, he's won 17 straight. Naturally, both fighters are coming in extremely confident.  Gilbert Burns, a welterweight contender who’s fought both  Muhammad and Maddalena believes that Maddelena is being underestimated. Burns said this: “The fight is closer than people think. JDM (Maddalena) is super underrated, people have no idea. That guy hits so hard, and his jiu-jitsu is getting so much better training with Craig Jones.” The Verdict: Muhammad is the real deal but the value lies with the underdog. Off 17 straight wins, JDM has a real shot at seizing the moment and scoring a monumental upset.  Co-Main EventValentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) is the champion. She's had an outstanding career and has taken on the best of the best. She holds all kinds of records in the flyweight division and is widely recognized as being one of the top female fighters of all-time. However, challenger Manon Fiorot (12-1, 7-0 in the UFC) is the -162 betting favorite. That says a lot about how good the lesser known Fiorot is. We last saw Fiorot in 2024, earning a 5-round decision against Erin Blanchfield. That was Fiorot's first UFC Main Event. Prior to that, she defeated Rose Namajunas. Blanchfield was on a 9-fight winning streak and Namajunas was a former UFC champ. So, those were quality opponents. Fiorot, a high level striker, will be the first French female to fight for a belt. Shevchenko is off three consecutive fights against Alexa Grasso. (Grasso also fights on the UFC 315 card.) She lost the first, drew the second and won the third. Prior to the Grasso trilogy, Shevchenko had won nine straight. She's avenged two of her four career losses and the other two both came against Amanda Nunes, perhaps the best women's fighter in UFC history. It'd be easy to assume that her age (37) is the reason that Shevchenko is the underdog. However, Fiorot is 35-years old herself.  The Verdict: Once again, the value is on. the underdog. Fiorot is really tough but she's never fought someone as good as Shevchenko. Go with the champ. Other Notable FightsFormer champion Jose Aldo is a -230 favorite against Aiemann Zahabi, the only Canadian on the main card. Off her three fights against Shevchenko, Alexa Grasso takes on Brazil's Natalia Silva. Off 12 straight wins, Silva is a -225 favorite.  PoliticsCommentator Joe Rogan won't be making the trip to Montreal. Last month, he said that: "He'd rather go to Russia than Canada." Rogan still isn't going but did backtrack on his initial statement a little. "I just wanna say to the Canadian people, I said the other day that I don't go to Canada anymore, I'd rather go to Russia. I was joking around, first of all. I do not go to Canada anymore, but it's because of the government."

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UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo

Thursday, May 01, 2025

The UFC visits Des Moines on Saturday. Both the biggest bouts are expected to be lopsided but there are some other competitive fights on the card. I've taken a closer look at one of those and provided a pick. Every so often, its good to get caught up on the current champions in each division, as well as the pound-for-pound rankings. I've done so at the bottom of this article. I'll be back in a few days to preview UFC 315, which features Jack Della Maddalena and Belal Muhammad, fighting for the welterweight title in Montreal.  The Main Event The Main Event sees 33-year old Cory Sandhagen (17-5) laying -550 against 37-year old Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4). In addition to being the younger fighter, Sandhagen has a significant height and reach advantage. Sandhagen lost his last fight but that was against Umar Nurmagomedov, who was undefeated at the time. Prior to that, Sandhagen had won three straight. Likewise, Figueiredo also saw a 3-fight winning streak snapped in his last fight, a decision loss to Petr Yan. Sandhagen will likely be too much for his older opponent. However, I wouldn't want to be laying -550. Though getting a little long in the tooth, Figueiredo is still no slouch.  The Co-Main Event  The Co-Main features Bo Nickal (7-0) as a -340 favorite against Reinier de Ridder. An elite wrestler, Nickal has yet to be challenged. He could be up for a tougher than expected fight on Saturday. After three straight victories, two by submission and one by TKO, de Ridder is now 19-2. Having to lose more than 36 pounds in less than a week could potentially take a toll on the favorite. Nickal weighed in at 222.6 pounds on Tuesday - the middleweight non-champion fight limit is 186. The PickThe third last fight of the night pits Daniel Rodriguez (18-5) up against Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8). The line is currently -110 each way. Both these guys are 38-years old. But that won't stop them from bringing it. Each will be aggressive and coming forward. Their styles suit each other well and it will make for an entertaining bout. Ponzinibbio, who owns three "Performance of the Night" awards in his UFC tenure, comes into this fight on the heels of a third-round TKO of Carlston Harris. Ponzinibbio said this of Saturday:  "It’s going to be a pretty fun fight. He’s a striker like me. … It’s going to be a fun fight for the fans for sure." My Pick: The "Argentine Dagger" is off a far more impressive win. I see him as a more-rounded fighter. Rodriguez also won his last fight but his victory came by split decision, against a fighter (Morono) who Ponzinibbio had previous knocked out. Rodriguez opened as a favorite but Ponzinibbio could easily close as one. Go with Santiago Ponzinibbio. Champions In Each DivisionFLYWEIGHT125 lb (56.82 kg)Alexandre Pantoja (29-5)"THE CANNIBAL"BANTAMWEIGHT134 lb (60.91 kg)Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)"THE MACHINE"FEATHERWEIGHT145 lb (65.91 kg)Alexander Volkanovski (27-4)"THE GREAT"LIGHTWEIGHT155 lb (70.45 kg)Islam Makhachev (27-1)WELTERWEIGHT169 lb (76.82 kg)Belal Muhammad (24-3)"REMEMBER THE NAME"MIDDLEWEIGHT185 lb (84.09 kg)Dricus Du Plessis (23-2)"STILLKNOCKS"LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT205 lb (93.18 kg)Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1)HEAVYWEIGHT238 lb (108.18 kg)Jon Jones (28-1)"BONES"WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT115 lb (52.27 kg)Zhang Weili (26-3)"MAGNUM"WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT125 lb (56.82 kg)Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1)"BULLET"WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT135 lb (61.36 kg)Julianna Peña (13-5)"THE VENEZUELAN VIXEN"MEN'S POUND-FOR-POUND RANKINGS1.Islam Makhachev2 Jon Jones3 Ilia Topuria4 Merab Dvalishvili5 Dricus Du Plessis6 Magomed Ankalaev7 Belal Muhammad8 Alex Pereira9 Alexander Volkanovski10 Alexandre Pantoja11 Tom Aspinall12 Max Holloway13 Sean O'Malley14 Charles Oliveira15 Arman Tsarukyan WOMEN'S POUND-FOR-POUND RANKINGS1 Valentina Shevchenko2 Zhang Weili3 Alexa Grasso4 Julianna Peña5 Manon Fiorot6 Erin Blanchfield7 Kayla Harrison8 Virna Jandiroba9 Raquel Pennington10 Rose Namajunas11 Tatiana Suarez12 Yan Xiaonan13 Natalia Silva14 Jéssica Andrade15 Maycee Barber

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The NBA Western Conference Playoffs

Saturday, Apr 19, 2025

OKLAHOMA CITY (1) vs. MEMPHIS (8)Game 1 odds – Thunder -12.5Series odds –Odds to win West – Thunder -150With 68 regular-season wins in their back pocket and a stifling defense that was stat-wise the third-best in the league, the Thunder seem more than ready for a long playoff run. Oh, and they also have the expected MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That should help a bit. Toss in Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren to protect the rim (which they didn’t have this time last year), and the package appears complete.  Can Memphis actually make this a series? The Grizzlies don’t have the deepest bench among playoff teams, and front-liners Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. will have to see big minutes. Fatigue is a factor for any OKC opponent. There is a reason – actually, lots of reasons – why the Thunder won 68 games this year, 20 more than Memphis.HOUSTON (2) vs. GOLDEN STATE (7)Game 1 odds – Warriors -1.5Series odds – Warriors -200, Rockets +165Odds to win West – Warriors +750, Rockets +2500He’s ba-a-a-a-ack. Playoff Jimmy has entered the building. Butler had 38 points and got to the foul line a staggering total of 18 times in Golden State’s Show-the-Kid-Who’s-Boss 7-8 Play-In win over Morant and the Grizzlies. Now the Rockets have to figure out how to deal with Butler’s slashing mid-range game AND keep an eye on Steph Curry moving around outside the 3-point line. Houston finds itself in the odd position of finishing second in the conference, winning 52 games, and the underdog in a series against a Play-In survivor. The Rockets’ No. 1 problem as the playoffs start is that they lack a genuine go-to player when they need a bucket late in the game. Amen Thompson, perhaps the best defender in the league, will have to log big minutes.LOS ANGELES LAKERS (3) vs. MINNESOTA (6)Game 1 odds – Lakers -4.5Series odds – Lakers -200, Timberwolves +160Odds to win West – Lakers +600, Timberwolves +1600This is the first playoff meeting between these teams, but the Wolves no doubt recall all too well the way Luka Doncic carved them up like a Thanksgiving turkey in the West finals last season. Minnesota will have to deal with both Doncic and a title-thirsty LeBron James this time around, and the only way the Wolves can get past this series is if Anthony Edwards is clearly the best player on the court for at least four games. That may be asking a little too much for Ant-Man, even though confidence in himself never seems to wane. Expect Minnesota to reprise Boston’s strategy in beating Doncic’s Mavericks in The Finals last year – go at Doncic on every possession, and harass him over 94 feet when the Lakers have the ball. Tiring out James and Doncic may not be a winning strategy, but it might have some effect if the series goes 6 or 7.DENVER (4) vs. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (5)Game 1 odds – Nuggets -3.5Series odds – Nuggets -135, Clippers +110Odds to win West – Nuggets +1000, Clippers +1600To paraphrase Jason Bateman’s character in Dodgeball, “Firing your head coach just before the playoffs is a bold move, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.”  Put another way, if interim boss David Adelman has the answers, why didn’t he tell former HC Mike Malone? No one knows how this will all play out, but Denver and perennial MVP candidate Nikola Jokic figure to have their hands full with the Clippers. The LAC have overachieved after letting Paul George flee to Philadelphia, and now venerable vets James Harden and Kawhi Leonard have their team peaking at just the right time – 9 wins in their final 10 regular season games. This series has the look and feel of a long grind, and home court for Denver in a Game 7 could be pivotal. The Clippers are mediocre on the road.

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The NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs

Saturday, Apr 19, 2025

CLEVELAND (1) vs. MIAMI (8)Game 1 odds – Cavaliers -12.5Series odds – N/AOdds to win East – Cavaliers +190, Heat +50000The Cavs didn’t do much to quell any stray doubters when they stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last five games. They’ll no doubt consider that bad run as a one-off and point to their wire-to-wire dominance of the Eastern Conference. Nine years after LeBron James bolted Cleveland and the Cavs have resurfaced with a deep, talented team that should be well-rested – none of the Core 4 (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarret Allen and Evan Mobley) averaged as many as 32 minutes this season. Can Miami, which has been backsliding since it surprisingly made it to the 2023 Finals, really make this a series? Not likely, even with Tyler Herro playing out of his mind (68 points in the Heat’s two Play-In victories). Just not enough talent, especially since Jimmy Butler shot his way out of South Florida.BOSTON (2) vs. ORLANDO  (7)Game 1 odds – Celtics -13.5Series odds – Celtics -1600, Magic +8000Odds to win East – Celtics -140It’s doubtful that the Magic can get this series to a sixth game, but Orlando has a big and effective front line that is capable of doing some physical damage and take some spring out of the Celtics’ step in the next round. Orlando has actually had decent success against Boston in the regular season, winning 10 of the last 13 meetings, although the Celtics won by 27 in Boston this season. There was some concern about the status of 2024 Finals MVP Jaylen Brown, who missed 19 games this season, including the final three games. Boston (which has a history of downplaying injuries) reports that Brown and his tender right knee is good to go for Game 1. As always, the Celtics will bomb away from deep. Opponents have had some success this season by leaving one player (usually Jrue Holiday) open and playing tight D on the other four.NEW YORK (3) vs. DETROIT (6)Game 1 odds – Knicks -7.5Series odds – Knicks -400, Pistons +310Odds to win East – Knicks +1000, Pistons +8000New York has been waiting all season for Mitchell Robinson to return and fill the hole left by the departure of Isiah Hartenstein, but will Robinson be game-ready to have an impact in the playoffs against the on-the-rise Pistons? The Knicks are hardly the picture of confidence as they enter the playoffs after not recording a single victory over any of the top three teams (Cleveland, Boston and OKC) this season. “We have to get it fixed and we have to get it fixed fast,” said Tom Thibodeau after NY blew a 28-point lead in a loss to the Cavs.  Detroit, with a blend of veterans led by superstar-in-the-making Cade Cunningham, can’t wait to get rolling. Pistons fans haven’t seen their team win a playoff game since 2008. Bad draw for the Knicks, who desperately need to take The Next Step, and for Thibodeau.INDIANA (4) vs. MILWAUKEE (5)Game 1 odds – Pacers -5.5Series odds – Pacers -200, Bucks +160Odds to win East – Pacers +2500, Bucks +4000The Bucks look like they’ll have to get by without injured Damien Lillard, who has missed 14 straight games due to blood clots in his right calf. Milwaukee’s defense has actually been a bit better without Lillard on the court, but it’s hard to see the Bucks advancing until Giannis Antetokounmpo gets significant help from somewhere. The Pacers bring a balanced attack behind Tyrese Halliburton and Pascal Siakam, and have far more depth than the Bucks. Expect Indiana to put constant pressure on Antetokounmpo, play a faster pace than Milwaukee wants to play at, and sub liberally. The two met in the playoffs last season; Lillard was banged up, and the Pacers took full advantage in a six-game series win. History seems to be repeating.

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Play-In Tournament Breakdown

Monday, Apr 14, 2025

EASTERN CONFERENCEATLANTA (8) at ORLANDO (7)Tuesday, April 15Orlando -4.5O/U – 218.5Heading into the season the Magic were thought to be the Next Big Thing in the East, looking very much like a 50- to 55-win team. But injuries to top of the rotation players ended serious title hopes, as Jalen Suggs and Mo Wagner both were derailed by knee issues. Orlando does head into the Play-In on a decent run (7-3 in their last 10) although its most impactful player, Paulo Banchero, is dealing with an ankle injury. The Hawks are slight dogs in this one as they make their fourth straight Play-In  appearance, trying to replicate the magic that enabled them to make a run to the Eastern Conference finals in 2021.  As always, Atlanta needs a super-human effort from Trae Young to make significant noise. The winner of this series gets Boston in the first round, so it looks like neither the Hawks nor the Magic will be still playing in May.MIAMI (10) at CHICAGO (9)Wednesday, April 16Chicago -1.5O/U – 223.5The Heat pride themselves on always being able to figure things out, and they’ll have to do a lot of figuring once the dust settles on this season. The mid-season Jimmy Butler drama seemed to sap a lot of energy from the team, although they beat a lot of bad teams in the final 10-game stretch, winning seven. Chicago, meanwhile, showed quite a bit of spunk after dealing away Zach Lavine, and rallied behind Coby White and Josh Giddey to give Bulls fans some hope that they might be able to break out of the middle of the pack. If any Play-In team seems ready to make life hard for the Eastern Elite, it might be Chicago. The winner plays the loser of the Magic-Hawks game, with the survivor there catching the top-seed Cavaliers in Round 1. WESTERN CONFERENCEMemphis (8) at Golden State (9)Tuesday, April 15Golden State -6.5O/U – 231.5Here’s a crazy stat: The Warriors are winless in three Play-In games. They’re solid favorites to end that mini-skid and advance to a first-round series against the second-seeded Rockets. But they’ll head into the Memphis game still shaking their heads after losing the regular season finale to the Clippers. At home. Still, a check of the roster still shows Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler, and both have tons of playoff experience. They can definitely carry GS past Memphis, but after that will depth be an issue? Draymond Green no doubt will exchange pleasantries with Ja Morant and try to throw Morant off his game.  The Grizzlies’ need to dig in on defense more than they did in games vs GS this season – they gave up 255 points to the Warriors in two losses.DALLAS (10) vs. SACRAMENTO (9)Wednesday, April 16Sacramento -5.5O/U – 223.5If Anthony Davis is going to log big minutes in any game this season, it’s this one. The mid-season deal of Luka Doncic to the Lakers may last as long as the Red Sox’ shame in trading Babe Ruth to the Yankees, and Davis needs to produce – fast – so the Mavs can save a little face. Sacramento has plenty of problems itself, but unless Klay Thompson (14 ppg average) turns back the clock and goes off big-time, the Kings should get another bite of the apple against the 7-8 loser. Under players might want to take a long look at this one. Neither team figures to show much interest in running up and down the court. When the Mavs are eliminated, they will have to sit down and try to find a path forward with aging roster full of players who always seem to get hurt.

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Top 5 Teams In The NFL Draft

Wednesday, Mar 19, 2025

Just about a month to go until the NFL Draft, Here’s a look at teams holding the top five picks,(No. 1 ) TENNESSEE TITANS – Tennessee was linked to Aaron Rodgers for a while and there was some spec that they would recycle Russell Wilson, but it appears now that they aren’t going the free agent route and will focus on Miami quarterback Cam Ward. Having a cost-controlled face of the franchise for the next half-decade or more is just too enticing for a team that needs to win back its fan base after a 3-14 season with just one win at home in 2024. Ward is the overwhelming -650 favorite to be the first pick and appears to be the perfect match for the Titans. Ward is also on record as saying Tennessee is where he wants to play. The Titans did use free agency to protect the new QB’s back side, overpaying for offensive tackle Dan Moore. Moore had a so-so 2024 season for the Steelers, but Tennessee is betting big that he’ll get it together this coming season.(No. 2) CLEVELAND BROWNS – Like Russia, the Browns’ overall strategy is often a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. What we do know is that the Browns need a quarterback. Deshaun Watson will spend most if not all of the 2025 season recovering from his SECOND Achilles surgery. That opens the door for someone like Wilson, who could use his time there to rehab his career and try to cash in one last time. Mock drafts have been all over the map on the Browns. If they go into Best Player Available mode, they could punt on the QB, draft Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter, pair him with newly-signed Myles Garrett, and let newcomer Kenny Pickett take a beating while the front office takes another year to figure things out. Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders is an option, but what do they do with him if/when Watson returns?(No. 3) NEW YORK GIANTS – There’s talk that the Giants will take both forks in the road – signing either Wilson or Rodgers as a stopgap, then drafting Sanders. Having a vet at the controls and hoping they don’t start the season 1-5 might keep the fans quiet and allow Sanders time to understand the pro game that he and his father are convinced they know already. Sanders is +4000 to be the first QB taken, but he’ll almost certainly be the second off the board. Holding him back is his perceived lack of arm strength and his moderate scrambling ability. He’s scary accurate, however, and not likely to be a turnover machine.(No. 4) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – The Patriots love that QB Drake Maye can move out of the pocket. They just are a tad concerned when he has to do that on every play. That’s why, barring a huge trade, New England will most likely take a big step toward solidifying its porous offensive line by taking a left tackle. If that LT is LSU’s Will Campbell, expect a lot of talk about the fact that his arms are on the short side. If new coach Mike Vrabel listens to the analytics department and doesn’t want to take a chance on Campbell, the Pats could look in another direction and take a much-needed receiver. New England had the weakest WR grouping the league last season and is desperate for deep threats such as Matthew Golden from Texas. Would they look at Colorado's two-way threat Travis Hunter after spending a fortune in the off-season rebuilding their defense?(No. 5) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – The Jags won only four games last season, and are headed for another drab year unless they can fix a defense that is in dire straits after allowing 389 yards and 25.6 points per game. They would do handstands if Carter somehow fell into their laps at this spot, but that is unlikely. So the focus now is on Michigan DT Mason Graham. With the Wolverines, Graham showed that he can be both an effective run-stopper and someone who can pressure the quarterback. Jacksonville did spend some free agent cash on upgrading the O-Line, so this pick makes perfect sense.

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The NBA MVP Race!

Sunday, Mar 16, 2025

Doesn’t it seem like the individual battle for the NBA MVP Award has been a two-person deal since the opening day of the season?Three-time (2021, 2022, 2024) winner Nikola Jokic has been battling Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tooth and nail. When Gilgeous-Alexander seems to have the trophy in his back pocket, Jokic does the impossible – putting together the league’s first-ever 30-20-20 triple double. The head-shaker of a game on March 8 was his 29th triple-double of the year and tied his own team record. The SGA, because he’s SGA, follows that with his own dominant performance, carrying the Thunder on his back in a road win in Boston with 34 points that made him one of only four player in league history with at least 20 points in 60 straight games.So where do things stand now in the MVP race with just a few weeks left in the regular season?THE ODDS – Jokic opened the season as a modest favorite, +380 to SGA’s +550. But OKC’s white-hot start and Denver’s sluggish play early were major factors in flipping those numbers.  Oddsmakers now like Gilgeous-Alexander’s chances at -700, while Jokic at +450 still has some heavy lifting to do.WHEN IN DOUBT – Oklahoma City made it known early that it is the best team in the Western Conference, and the Give It to the Best Player on the best team would apply here. And with nine wins in their last 10 games, the Thunder are showing zero interest in resting for the playoffs. The attention they get as the No. 1 seed with possibly the best record in the league gives SGA a boost. With a thinner roster that has little depth, Denver (5-5 in its last 10) is showing signs of fatigue.WHERE WOULD THEY BEWITHOUT? – Huge advantage to Jokic, who is clearly far more indispensable. With Jokic, the Nuggets’ offense would evaporate and Denver would most likely be a Lottery team talking about drafting the “best player available.” With him they can scour the earth for depth pieces and players who can fit in with him. OKC, OTOH, might not be dominant without Gilgeous-Alexander but would probably be in the mix for home advantage in Round 1 of the playoffs. Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins are under-the-radar stars, a healthy Chet Holmgren is finally showing his talent, and Isaiah Hartenstein has solved a Big Man Void that has cost OKC in recent years.THEY BOTH PLAY – Neither Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jokic has shown the slightest interest in playing the Load Management game. SGA played in 64 of his team’s 67 games, and Jokic has been almost as durable – missing only 7 of the Nuggets' 68 games. Both could afford to sit over several games down the stretch and still play in the league-mandated minimum of 65 games to qualify for the award.JOKIC FATIGUE FACTOR – Jokic, the defending MVP, has won the award three times in the last four years. There may sentiment to vote for “somebody else,” especially since SGA finished second in the voting last season and has been dominant. But Jokic backers will point out that the Serbian’s numbers (scoring, assists, free throws and minutes) are all GREATER than in the years that he won the award.BOTTOM LINE – Expect a new MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2024-25 season has just been too steady, too overwhelming and too dominant to overlook. Four times this season he scored 50 or more points in a game, numbers that are Chamberlain-like. He will lead the league in scoring average, and barring a late-season injury will have more points than anyone else. He has the most 20-point games, the most 30-point games, the most 40-point games and the most 50-point games.

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UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song

Sunday, Feb 16, 2025

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. SongSaturday, February 22ndClimate Pledge Arena - Seattle, WA The final UFC in February will be held in the Pacific Northwest, at Seattle's Climate Pledge Arena. The main event sees Henry Cejudo take on China's Yadong Song. Before that 5-round bantamweight bout, Brendan Allen and Anthony Hernandez will renew acquaintances at middleweight. Though the card is a little short on star power, especially after a few cancellations, I've managed to uncover a couple of strong wagering opportunities. I've shared one of them with you below. The Main EventHenry "The Messenger" Cejudo (16-4) began his career with 10 straight wins. His 10-fight winning streak came to an end in April 2016, when he was KO'd by Demetrious Johnson. That was followed by a split decision loss. All of a sudden, Cejudo was off back-to-back losses. He promptly answered the bell by winning six straight fights, including a revenge victory against Johnson. Cejudo's 6-fight winning streak has been followed by losses in his last 2 fights. Both were decision losses against top level opposition, only one of the decisions was unanimous. Can the recently turned 38-year old turn back the clock and avoid a third straight loss? Not according to the oddsmakers. Yadong Song, more than a decade younger, is a -270 betting favorite. The total has opened at 4.5o-140.  Song (21-8) is off a decision loss of his own, also against a top tier opponent. Prior to that, the "Kung Fu Kid" had won two straight and five of his past six. Song was an underdog against Petr Yan in his last fight. The fact that he's such a large favorite on Saturday says as much about Cejudo's age, as it does about Song. It may well go the distance but the younger, faster fighter should prevail. Cejudo says otherwise: "I will make the greatest combat sports comeback of 2025. It’s All or Nothing - Tune in."The Co-Main EventBrendan "All In" Allen (24-6) and Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez fought each other in January of 2018. Hernandez won a unanimous decision. On Saturday, seven years later, they'll meet again. Hernandez is a steep -270 favorite to beat Allen for a second time. The total is 2.5o-170. Hernandez, now 31 years old, has won 6 straight. Only one of those fights went the distance.  Allen, who lost to Imavov last fight, has never lost two in a row. Prior to the Imavov fight, he had won 7 straight. His most recent win was against a fighter (Curtis) who had previously defeated him. So, he does have a history of getting revenge. The 29-year old Allen said this: “Coming off a loss, I’m always a different monster. It’s different. Plus, it’s a redemption fight for me and, I don’t know, I hope that I go out here, beat ‘Fluffy’ – and I won’t talk bad about ‘Fluffy’ whatsoever or be disrespectful, because I really like ‘Fluffy’ as a human. He’s a great human. But I’m going to go out there and I’m going to do my job. I’m going to finish him and hopefully after that it just shows circumstances weren’t on my side in France and I’m still the killer who should be close to the title shot – and hopefully I get a top-five guy next, really put a statement on them and put me back in contention.”My PickIbo Aslan and Ion Cutelaba Under 1.5 rounds. We should be able to get some plus money on the under 1.5 rounds in the Aslan/Cutelaba fight. Good value seeing as I don't see this fight lasting very long. Aslan (14-1) has seen 12 of his 15 fights end in the first round. Three of Cutelaba's last 6 fights have also ended in the first round. Go with the under. 

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UCF 312: Preview And Picks

Wednesday, Feb 05, 2025

UFC 312 - Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2  Saturday, February 8thQudos Bank Arena - Sydney, AustraliaAll eyes will be on Sydney this Saturday. It'll mark the seventh time that the UFC has visited Australia's largest city, the first since 2023. Overall, this will be the 19th time that Australia has hosted a UFC event.  A few of the many memorable fights down under include Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira back in UFC 110 and Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski in UFC 284. Of course, who could forget Holly Holm's upset over Ronda Rousey in UFC 193. With a pair of titles on the line, Saturday's card is sure to produce more exciting memories. Let's take a closer look at some of the biggest fights.  The Main EventThe headliner features Drikus du Plessis taking on Sean Strickland for the middleweight title. Du Plessis is a -205 favorite. Recall that these fighters had a great battle against each other, a little over a year ago. It was a 5-round war that could have gone either way. Du Plessis won a split decision but a case could have been made for Strickland. Including that victory, the 31-year old South African fighter is now 10-0 his last 10 and 22-2 for his career. The 33-year old Strickland (29-6) followed up the narrow defeat against du Plessis by defeating Paulo Costo. (It was scored a split decision but most agree that Strickland actually won comfortably.) He's 4-1 his last five. Both fighters have a recent win against Israel Adesanya. Speaking of Adesanya, Strickland is looking to join "The Last Stylebender" as the only man to ever hold the middleweight belt more than once.  The winner of Saturday's main event could find himself matched up against Islam Makhachev. Willing to move up in weight, the reigning lightweight champion said this after his last fight: "I don’t know when it’s going to happen, but I told them I’m not [going to] leave this sport without second belt. I need the second belt to be, and after I’ll talk like ‘I’m the greatest’ or something. But right now, my goal is to be double champion. I don’t know if it’s going to be next fight or when, [but] I’m still fighting, still winning. I defend my belt how many times the UFC wants, I will defend. When they give me chance, I want to be double champion.”Prediction: This should be another extremely close fight. With the over 4.5 rounds listed at -200, its likely to again go the distance. That being the case, the value lies with the underdog Strickland.  The Co-Main EventThe women's strawweight title is on the line in the co-main event, as champion Zhang Weili (25-3) defends her belt against undefeated challenger Tatiana Suarez. Off back-to-back title defenses, the 35-year old Weili has won four straight. The only person to beat her over the past decade is Rose Namajunas. Zhang is a warrior with a ton of heart. She's been in some incredible battles. The champ opened as the favorite. Yet, money has come in on the challenger and the 34-year old Suarez is now a slight -120 favorite. That says a lot about the talent which she possesses. (Weile has been the betting favorite in each of her last seven fights.) A former Olympic wrestling hopeful, Suarez long been considered a future champion. Now she finally gets her chance.  Here's what the champ had to say: “I believe I would fight Tatiana sooner or later because she has a great track record, and she’s also very high in the rankings. I think Tatiana is very good at grappling and wrestling, and I’m very happy I can fight with her in Australia. I think Tatiana is the best wrestler and grappler of all the opponents I have faced. But I think all of Tatiana’s strengths have a way to solve it and a way to handle it. I think Tatiana is a fighter who is very persistent. She has faced many adversities in her life so I’m sure she will be very persistent. I don’t think I need to prove people wrong. Tatiana is a good fighter and I understand why people think this is a close fight.” Prediction:  As most of Zhang's fights are, this should be an absolute war. As much as I like and respect Weili, Suarez's wrestling and grappling skills are on a different level. I'm likely not backing either fighter (although I may take a closer look at the over) but I'm sure not going to miss it. This has the potential to be one of the best fights of the year.  Don't BlinkOne fight on Saturday's card which could go either way features Viacheslav "Slava" Borshchev taking on Tom "Big Train" Nolan. Borshchev (8-4-1) is a 33-year old American fighter. Six of his eight victories have come by KO/TKO, three of those occurring in the first round. Hailing from Brisbane, the 24-year old Nolan will have the home crowd on his side. Six of his nine fights have been by KO/TKO. His last fight was a decision but his previous four all ended in the first round. Prediction: Both these guys are looking to knock the other out. I expect a first round stoppage. Play on the under 1.5 rounds. 

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UFC Fight Night 250: Preview and Picks

Sunday, Jan 26, 2025

UFC Fight Night 250 - Adesanya vs. Imavov Saturday, February 1stKingdom Arena - Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaWe've seen some high profile boxing matches there, as well as soccer, tennis, golf and wrestling. On Saturday, the UFC is back in Riyadh. Though there have been 20 events in Abu Dhabi, (UAE) this will mark just the second time that Saudi Arabia will have hosted an event. The headliner features Nassourdine "The Sniper" Imavov squaring off against "The Last Stylebender," Israel Adesanya. Other notable names on the card include Michael Page, Shara Magomedov, Sergei Pavlovich and Said Nurmagomedov. Let's take a closer look at the two biggest fights. The Main EventFormer middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (24-4) is currently laying in the -160 to -170 range, depending on where one plays, against Nassourdine Imavov. The 35-year old Adesanya is off back-to-back losses and has dropped three of his last four.  The 29-year old Imavov (15-4) has won three straight. Next week, at UFC 312 in Sidney, current middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis will defend his title in a rematch against Sean Strickland. (Du Plessis and Strickland are the two fighters who just beat Adesanya, while Imavov's last loss came against Strickland.) Both Adesanya and Imavov hope to face the winner of that fight. However, Dana White has already said that number one contender Khamzat Chimaev is probably next in line for a title shot.Whether or not it leads to a title shot, Saturday's match is very important to both fighters. Adesanya can't afford another loss. This will mark the first time since 2019 that he's fighting in a non-title fight. He's not suggesting retirement but another defeat could cause him to reconsider. On the other hand, an impressive win and he's right back in the conversation.Adesanya said this about his current mindset: "Same as I've always had it, I never really chased the belt. I always knew it would come around. I knew what I was going to do in the game, I knew it was going to keep coming around. So again, now I just plan on keep winning and it'll circle back. I'm not chasing the belt, but the belt chases me."Imavov feels that he has a chance to leapfrog Chimaev, if he can deliver an impressive enough victory. “Of course, depending on the performance, I can get the next title shot. It can be Khamzat. The fact that I went for four fights in one year, two top five, two top 10, that’s something very significant." Prediction: Anything could happen but my feeling is that Adesanya isn't done yet. Alexander Volkanovski recently sparred with The Last Stylebender and said he was in top form. "Didn’t even get close to him," said Volkanovski. However, the most likely outcome appears to be a decision. Imavov has seen four of his last five go the distance. Five of Adesanya's last eight fights have also been decided by the judges. The Co-Main EventI had a big play on Shara "Bullet" Magomedov (15-0) in his last fight, an impressive second round spinning back-fist KO of Armen Petrosyan. That was back in UFC 308, at Abu Dhabi. On Saturday, Magomedov puts his undefeated record on the line against English fighter Michael Page. Off a loss in his last fight, the 37-year old Page is now 22-3 for his career. Magomedov, 30 years old, opened as a -160 favorite but the line is now closer to -200. The O/U line for this 3-round middleweight bout is 2.5 over -240. Four of Page's last five fights have gone the distance. Magomedov has won three of his last six fights by decision. Before that, he'd stopped each of his first nine opponents. Magomedov is blind in one eye but that's clearly never been an issue.Convinced that he's the better striker and perhaps trying to goad him into staying on his feet, Page said this about his opponent: “I think he will be a lot more stubborn in believing in his ability. So, I think I’d definitely be landing some crazy shots if he decides to go for a takedown, because like I said, I think he in his mind he believes he’s the best when it comes to the striking game. So, it will take a few knocks before he decides to change that, and maybe it might be too little too late. I think he’ll be very bloodied up if he is going for a takedown.”Bullet countered with: “Michael Page I heard you say that I will bleed in our fight on February 1st. Yes I will bleed, only in yours." Prediction: Though I mentioned that both fighters have had some recent decisions, getting roughly +200 on the under looks like very fair value. If you're looking for a big underdog payout on Saturday, consider the under 2.5 rounds.

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UFC 311 Preview And Picks

Saturday, Jan 11, 2025

UFC 311 - Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2  Saturday, January 18thIntuit Dome - Los Angeles, CAThe UFC returns to Los Angeles this Saturday. Maybe. (More on that below.) It's the first pay-per-view event of 2025 and it includes some of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the entire world. The Main Event features a rematch of Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan. The Co-Main Event sees Umar Nurmagomedov facing Merab Dvalishvili. Some other recognizable names include: Renato Moicano, Beneil Dariush, Jamahal Hill and Kevin Holland. Both the marquis fights have a clear favorite but there are some others which are expected to be more competitive. Let's get caught up to speed. The Main EventThe lightweight title is on the line in the Main Event. The first fight between Islam Makhachev (26-1) and Armen Tsarukyan (22-3) was back in 2019 and it went the distance. At the time, Makhachev's decision victory was his fifth consecutive win. He's kept winning and getting better, ever since. He's now won 14 straight and is considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. For Saturday's rematch, Makhachev is a hefty -410 favorite. Tsarukyan is no slouch. He's 9-1 since the loss to Makhachev and he's a perfect 4-0 his past four fights. Islam knows that Armen is a legitimate contender. The champion said this of the challenger: "Armen doesn't have any weaknesses. But if I want to see his weakness, I have to dig very deep. Arman has everything, that's why he is the real contender, number one in our division right now. I pushed myself very hard for the last three months for this fight because I know I have a real contender who wants to take my belt. I don't want to give him any chance."Prediction: Makhachev is the best in the world but Tsarukyan has the skills to least make things interesting. No play for me. Islam will very likely win but I'm not laying -400. I'm just going to enjoy watching a world class fight. The Co-Main EventUmar Nurmagomedov (18-0) is a -325 favorite over bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili (18-4) in the second biggest bout on the card. Considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Dvalishvili has won 11 in a row. His most four recent victories coming against Sean O'Malley, Henry Cejudo, Peter Yan and Jose Aldo. Those are all well-known fighters. Yet, Dvalishvili  is still a substantial underdog. The fact that Nurmagomedov is still such a heavy favorite of the champion of the division shows his level of dominance.  Perhaps some of the lack of respect for Dvalishvili stems from the fact that he doesn't typically finish opponents. His last 4 victories have all been by decision. As a matter of fact, 10 of his 11 wins, during his current undefeated streak, have come courtesy of the judges. Each of Nurmagomedov's last two fights have also gone the distance. Before that, he'd stopped four of his previous five opponents.Dvalishvili said this of Nurmagomedov: "I'm just going to make him humble. I think Umar is spoiled little baby. He's been disrespectful. You can go on his Twitter, and you guys all see how he disrespected the champion, but I'm just going to prove it. I don't want to talk. I just want to do it, you know? January 18th, I'm just going to prove it. I'm working really hard, and you guys know every time I fight against top contenders, I make them look easy. So I think I will do the same again. I'm going to look for the finish, but I'm not saying nothing. All I want is to win, beat him because he is 18-0, which is undefeated. He was never defeated before. He is like amateur world champion, Russian champion, Dagestan champion, sambo champion. He's Khabib's cousin, and his brother Khabib never lost before. I will be the first who gives him loss."Prediction: With the juice on the over 4.5 rounds currently at -275 or -280 and given Dvalishvili's history of decisions, this one has a strong likelihood of going to judges. As good as Nurmagomedov is, I can't help thinking that Dvalishvili has a real shot at backing up his words. He may not win but he's going to be in it until the end with a real shot. The takeback on Dvalishvili is +275.  That's where the value lies, in my opinion. The Toss-UpThe Reinier de Ridder (18-2) versus Kevin Holland (26-12) fight could go either way. At least, according to the odds. Reinier de Ridder is currently the slightest of favorites. He's laying -115. The two big 5-round fights may be likely to go the distance but this one probably will not. None of "The Dutch Knight's" last six fights have. He won 4 of those 6, each of the past 2. Off a loss, Holland has dropped 3 of his past 4 fights. The last 2 (1 W, 1 L) both ended in the first round. De Ridder said this of Holland: “He’s very wild on the feet,” de Ridder said. “But I’m going to put a lot of pressure on him, hit him with some good shots, take him down, choke him out, hopefully.”Prediction: This one could be over quickly. One of these guys is getting stopped. Go with the under.   Will The Event Remain In Los Angeles?Dana White: "Well, if the fire gets bad, we're coming to Vegas ... we'll move it to Vegas if gets too bad. As of now, it's all a go. NBA is gonna go this week, we're gonna go." 

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Conference Championship Games: Odds And Previews

Sunday, Dec 01, 2024

A unique and exciting college football season is winding down. Before we get to the bowls and the College Football Playoff, there's a matter of the Conference Championships to settle. I've provided the odds for this weekend's big games and given brief previews below. It's helpful to know the venue, the current form and whether or not the teams met in the regular season. When looking at the teams, think about some of the ones that aren't there! *Also, see if you can guess which of these teams has the worst ATS record? You might be surprised by the answer!  Friday, December 6th CONFERENCE: AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP VENUE: MICHIE STADIUM - WEST POINT, NY TEAMS: TULANE VS. ARMYODDS: TULANE -4, 47.5 PREVIEW: Army has the better record and plays at home but Tulane has the higher ranking and is favored. Tulane (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) is ranked 18th in the country. The Green Wave are here on the strength of their defense. They allow 18.4 ppg. Army (10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS) is ranked #25. The Black Knights are also stingy. They allow 15.1 ppg and 295.5 ypg. Army bounced back to win its final game of the season, after getting blown out by Notre Dame the previous week. Tulane lost to Memphis in its finale, after having won its previous eight. This game will determine the AAC's representative in any potential New Year's Six bowl considerations CONFERENCE: CONFERENCE USAVENUE: AMFIRST STADIUM - JACKSONVILLE, AL TEAMS: JACKSONVILLE STATE VS. WESTERN KENTUCKY ODDS: JACKSONVILLE STATE -3.5, 58.5PREVIEW: Both these teams were 5-1 at home and 3-3 on the road. That being the case, Jacksonville State (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) will be looking to capitalize on home field advantage. These teams just played a close game at Western Kentucky on November 30th. The Hilltoppers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 19-17, as a 1-point favorite. Can they beat the Jaguars twice in less than a week? CONFERENCE: MOUNTIAN WESTVENUE: ALBERTSONS STADIUM - BOISE, ID TEAMS: UNLV VS. BOISE STATEODDS: BOISE -4, 59 PREVIEW: In the past, this would have been a real David vs. Goliath matchup. UNLV (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is better than it used to be though. The Rebels lost by only five points to the Broncos mid-season (at UNLV) and have responded by winning each of their final five games. Behind its superstar running back, Boise State (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has been dominant, aiming for another championship to bolster its CFP resume. If you haven't seen Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman contender, you're in for a treat. Saturday, December 7th  CONFERENCE: BIG 12VENUE: AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX TEAMS: ARIZONA STATE VS. IOWA STATEODDS: ARIZONA STATE -2.5, 51 PREVIEW Both teams have had impressive runs in Big 12 play, each checking in with 7-2 conference records. Arizona State (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) comes in riding high off a dominant 49-7 blowout win against instate rival Arizona. That was the Sun Devils 5th straight win and cover. Iowa State (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is off three straight wins. This game is important for College Football Playoff seeding and could influence the selection committee's decisions CONFERENCE: BIG 10VENUE: FORD FIELD, DETROIT MITEAMS: MIAMI OHIO VS. OHIOODDS: MIAMI OHIO -2.5, 44.5 PREVIEW: Miami (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) had an outstanding "conference" season, going 7-1 in MAC play to clinch the East Division. Ohio (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) had the better overall record but a 6-2 record within the conference. The difference in conference records was a result of the Redhawks defeating the Bobcats when they met, at Miami, in mid-October. Miami took a 30-6 lead into the 4th quarter before Ohio scored a couple late touchdowns to make the score look a little more respectable.  CONFERENCE: SECVENUE: MERCEDEZ-BENZ STADIUM - ATLANTA, GATEAMS: TEXAS VS GEORGIA ODDS: TEXAS -3, 49 PREVIEW: They're playing in Atlanta but Texas is still favored. The Longhorns (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) in their inaugural season in the SEC have a chance to claim the conference title and secure a spot in the playoffs. Georgia (10-2 SU, 3-9 ATS) after surviving an 8-overtime thriller, aims to spoil the party. Texas will be looking to avenge its only loss, a 30-15 home loss to the Bulldogs back in October. Georgia's Trevor Etienne ran for three touchdowns. The Longhorns were #1 at the time. Needless to say, this is a huge game.  *Having gone 3-9 at the betting window, the Bulldogs have the worst ATS record of any team playing this weekend. CONFERENCE: SUN BELTVENUE: CAJUN FIELD -LAFAYETTE, LA TEAMS: MARSHALL VS LOUISIANAODDS: LOUISIANA -4, 57.5 PREVIEW: Both teams were 7-1 in Sun Belt play. Marshall (9-3 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) clinched the East in dramatic fashion. The Thundering Herd defeated James Madison in 2-OT to advance here, their first Sun Belt title game. Louisiana (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) has been consistent all year. With an impressive 10-1-1 ATS record, Marshall has been a cash cow for bettors all season. Will that continue on Saturday?  CONFERENCE: ACC VENUE: BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC TEAMS: CLEMSON VS. SMU ODDS: SMU -2.5, 57 PREVIEW: SMU was the only team to go undefeated in ACC play. The Mustangs blowout of Cal this past Saturday extended a 17-game winning streak in conference play. Clemson (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) on the other hand, is seeking to re-establish its dominance in the ACC, having won eight of the last ten championships. This game is obviously huge for both teams' CFP aspirations, with SMU looking to make a statement in its first ACC title game and Clemson aiming for another championship.CONFERENCE: BIG TENVENUE: LUCAS OIL STADIUM - INDIANAPOLIS, IN TEAMS: OREGON VS PENN STATEODDS: OREGON -3.5, 49.5 PREVIEW: This game features the #1 ranked team Oregon (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) taking on #2 ranked Penn State (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS). The Ducks finished the regular season undefeated, marking their first such finish since 2010. Penn State's only loss came against Ohio State, a team Oregon defeated by a single point. Naturally, this game has significant implications for the playoffs. 

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UFC 310: Preview And Picks

Sunday, Dec 01, 2024

UFC 310 Pantoja vs Asakura Saturday, December 7thT-Mobile Arena - Las VegasThe UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday. The last pay-per-view event of 2024, UFC 310 is loaded with exciting fights. Though there have been some changes to the original lineup, it should still be a great event. Let's take a closer look.  The Main Event  Pantoja vs AsakuraPantoja -2702.5 over -140 The flyweight title is on the line, as current champion Alexandre Pantoja squares off against Kai Asakura. Pantoja (28-5) is known for his aggressive style and ground game. Askakura (21-4) is making his UFC debut. It's not often you see a fighter get a shot in his first UFC fight but that speaks to the level of success Askakura had prior to coming to America. The Japanese fighter hails from the "Rizin Fighting Federation," where he was a 2-time bantamweight champion.  Pantoja "The Cannibal" obviously has a huge edge in UFC experience. A determined fighter with a lot of heart, he's been in numerous wars. He takes some punishment at times but never quits. He's never been knocked out or submitted. Pantoja's last three fights all went the distance. He was last seen earning a unanimous decision over Steve Erceg in May. Askakura hasn't fought since late 2023. He had two fights in 2023 and won them both, one by KO and the other by TKO. Both victories featured knee shots to the body.Prediction: Pantoja's experience and overall toughness should be too much for Askakura. I wouldn't want to lay -270 though.  The Co-Main Event  Rakhmonov vs GarryRakhmonov -3702.5 over -140 This was originally supposed to be a welterweight title fight between Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov. However, Muhammad had to withrdraw due to a bone infection. That's too bad, as Muhammad/Rakhmonov would have been really good. In steps Ian Machado Garry. He faces Rakhmonov in a five-round title eliminator bout. Rakhmonov has a reputation for finishing his opponents. He's 18-0 and none of those fights went the distance. Ten submissions and eight wins by KO/TKO. Garry is also undefeated (15-0) but hasn't fought the same level of competition. Still, the Hungarian fighter has defeated the opponents put in front of him. This fight will (very likely) determine the next challenger for the welterweight title.Prediction: The steep price is there for good reason, Rakhmonov is on another level from Garry. I'm currently considering the under 2.5 round option.Other FightsOutside of the two main fights, there are some other big name fighters on the card. Cyril Gane, who has looked good against everyone besides Jon Jones and Francis Nganno, takes on Alexander Volkov. It's a rematch of a 2021 fight which Gane won by decision. Gane is currently a -310 favorite. Another recognizable name is Aljamain Sterling. The "Funkmaster" is a former bantamweight champ (by disqualification) and he's 10-1 his last 11 fights. Yet, he's a sizeable underdog against Movsar Evloev. The Russian fighter is 18-0 - each of his past eight wins came by decision. The Gracie name still carries a lot of weight but Kron Gracie is in over his head against Bryce Mitchell. One of the more evenly matched fights sees Nate Landwehr take on Doo Ho Choi. Both Landwehr and Choi are known for their entertaining styles, which should make for an exciting bout. Thanks for following along with my UFC picks in 2024. It's been a great year and I'm hoping to close it out with a big win ... Will Rogers 

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Thanksgiving Day NFL Preview

Monday, Nov 25, 2024

They've been playing football on Thanksgiving for longer than anyone can remember, before the National Football League even existed. The first official Thanksgiving Day football game was played in 1876, between Yale and Princeton. It was a big social event, as it marked the unofficial start of the winter social season in New York City. Over the next two decades, college and high school football games played on Thanksgiving became common throughout the country. The NFL, which was founded in 1920, saw that popularity and quickly jumped on the Thanksgiving football bandwagon. In 1934, the Detroit Lions were playing in their first year in the league. They were winning but not getting big crowds. In an effort to try and help increase attendance, Lions owner George A. Richards, hosted the NFL's first Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit in 1934. At that the time, nobody knew that he was starting a tradition. Richards happened to also own a Detroit radio station. Using his industry contacts, he was able to get a deal in place for the Lions/Bears game to be broadcast on 94 radio stations, coast to coast. The 1934 game was witnessed in person by 26,000 fans, the Lions' first ever sellout. It was a classic which Chicago won 19-16. Leo Macdonell of the Detroit Times described it as follows: "It was a heartbreak for the Lions and their followers, and with a heavy heart they feast over the crumbs of a game that put the Detroit team out of the running for the championship honors." Though the game didn't go Detroit's way, the event was such a success that the Lions have hosted a game every Thanksgiving since, with the exception of the World War II years.  Decades later, America's Team got in the act. The Cowboys saw how popular the Detroit games were and in 1966 they decided to try playing on Thanksgiving. It was also a smashing success and they've been doing it every year since, except 1975 and 1977. (The St. Louis Cardinals were given those games to try and boost their national exposure.) Nowadays, when many think about traditions associated with Thanksgiving, Detroit and Dallas football games are right up there with the turkey and the pumpkin pie. 2024 Detroit and Chicago kick off this year's Thanksgiving Day 3-game pro slate, the Lions favored by double-digits. That's followed by a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. The evening game features the Green Bay Packers hosting the Miami Dolphins. There's also one college football game that day, Memphis taking on Tulane. Let's take a closer look at the NFL games. Chicago at Detroit Line: Lions -10.5, 48.5The Lions are one of the very best teams in the league this year. Their 10-1 record ranks number one in the NFC and tied with KC for first place overall. They've scored way more points than any team in football and have a dominating 360-183 scoring advantage in their 11 games. The wide margins of victory have led to a 9-2 record versus the spread. The Lions have now won nine straight games. That happens to be their longest winning streak since the 1934 Lions team (mentioned above) won 10 straight. Off 5 straight losses, the Bears (4-7 SU and 5-4-2 ATS) are going the other way. Three of those 5 losses, including each of the past 2, were by a field goal or less. These teams faced each other last Thanksgiving Day and the Lions won 31-26, as 7.5 point favorites. The Bears were up 26-14 in the fourth quarter before Detroit scored the game's final 17 points. New York at DallasLine: Cowboys -3.5, 38Most would have assumed that at least one of these teams would be in contention in the NFC East. That's not the case. The Eagles (9-2) are 2 games ahead of Washington for the division lead while the Cowboys (4-7 SU and 3-7-1 ATS) and Giants (2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS) are a distant 3rd and 4th. Teams in this division all hate each other and these two are no exception. Even with their poor records, Dallas/NY games are always important to both teams. The Cowboys defeated the Giants 20-15 in September. That was their 7th straight win in the series. That September game featured Prescott and Jones at quarterback but neither will be playing Thursday. Prescott is out for the season with injury and Jones was recently released. Dallas comes in off an upset win at Washington, backup QB Cooper Rush leading the way. The Giants began the post Daniel Jones era by getting blown out by Tampa. Miami at Green Bay Line: Packers -3, 47.5Here's a game which really means something. The Dolphins are still only 5-6 (SU and ATS) but they have won 3 straight games. They still won't catch the Bills to win the division but they now have a have a 31.9% chance to make the playoffs. The Packers (8-3 SU and 5-6 ATS) are also on a roll. They smashed San Francisco last week and have won 6 of their last 7. They likely won't overtake both Minnesota and Detroit to win the division but they do now have a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs. Based on those playoff odds, one could say that this is a big game for Green Bay but an even bigger one for Miami. The Packers have won the past three meetings, most recently a 26-20 win at Miami in 2022. Before that was a 31-12 Packer home win in November 2018. Can the warm weather Dolphins win a late November game at Lambeau? Tune in Thursday night to find out! Enjoy the holiday everyone. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families ... Will Rogers

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Grey Cup Preview

Monday, Nov 11, 2024

On Sunday, the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers will battle for the 2024 Grey Cup. It's a rematch of the 2022 final. The Argos upset the Bombers that year. First awarded in 1909, there have since been 100 Grey Cups. They didn't play from 1916 to 1919 or 2020. This year's big game will be played at Vancouver's BC Place. Let's take a closer look. The OddsThe Bombers are favored by 10.5 points. The total is 50. The Teams The Argos defeated Montreal 30-28 to get here. Winners of five of their last six, they are 12-8 SU and 10-9-1 ATS. Fourteen of Toronto's 20 games went over the total. The Bombers blasted Saskatchewan 38-22 to advance to this game. They have won nine of 10 and are 12-7 SU and 9-10 ATS on the season. Fourteen of Winnipeg's 19 games finished under the total.The InjuryThe Bombers wouldn't be such heavy favorites if not for an injury to Toronto's starting quarterback. Chad Kelly, the CFL’s outstanding player last season, suffered a broken ankle last week against Montreal. That means that Veteran Nick Arbuckle will make his first-ever Grey Cup start. Head-To-HeadToronto won both regular season meetings. Both games were very close and each was low-scoring. The first was back in July, before Winnipeg had really found its way. The Argos won 16-14, in OT. The second was last month, Toronto winning 14-11.Five Straight Grey Cup AppearancesIf it seems like the Bombers are always in the Grey Cup, it's because they are. This will mark their fifth consecutive appearance. They won the first two but lost each of the last two. The Bombers are the fourth team to make five consecutive Grey Cup appearances, the first since Edmonton competed in six straight, (1977-82) nearly 50 years ago. Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros, now 36 years old, will make his sixth Grey Cup start, going after his fourth ring. He earned his first with Toronto, back in 2012.Going For 8 StraightThe Argos may not reach the final as regularly as Winnipeg. When they do, they have a knack for closing the deal. They've been involved in seven Grey Cups since 1991 and they've won all seven. With 18 Grey Cups in their history, the Argos have won the big game more than any other team. They're 18-6 in the Final. With 30 Grey Cup appearances, the Bombers have been to the big game more than any other team. They're just 12-18. Coaching TiesBoth coaches have ties to the opposition. Winnipeg’s coach Mike O’Shea had some great years with the Argos as a linebacker. He won three Grey Cups with Toronto as a player (1996-97, ’04) and another as the Argos' special-teams coordinator (2012). This will be his fifth straight Grey Cup game as a head coach. Toronto’s coach Ryan Dinwiddie used to play quarterback for Boise State. His first-career CFL start was with the Blue Bombers. That was in the 2007 Grey Cup versus Saskatchewan. He played three seasons for Winnipeg. This will be his second Grey Cup as a head coach. He was also the Stampeders' quarterback coach for their 2018 Grey Cup victory.Another Close One?Seven of the past nine Grey Cups were decided by eight points or less. Eight of those games were decided by 11 or less. The last three Grey Cups had scores of 28-24, 24-23 and 33-25. The last game at Vancouver was in 2014, a 20-16 win for Calgary over Hamilton. My OpinionI've been watching the Grey Cup for a long time. The games are often close (see above) and Winnipeg doesn't regularly fare too well. The injury to Kelly has created value with the Argos. They already beat the Bombers with Arbuckle at QB once and they have the defense to make things difficult for Collaros. At +10.5, let's go with Toronto!

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UFC Fight Night, Moreno vs. Albazi: Preview and Picks

Monday, Oct 28, 2024

UFC Fight Night Moreno vs. Albazi Saturday, Nov. 2ndRogers Place - EdmontonLast week's event, UFC 308 at Abu Dhabi, featured some high level and exciting fighters. The Main Event didn't disappoint as Featherweight champion Ilia Topuria became the first to defeat Max Holloway by KO. Topuria is absolutely one of the most well-rounded and best pound for pound fighters in the world. I personally really enjoyed the Magomedov/Petrosyan bout and not just because Magomedov's win brought me to 17-1 YTD with UFC sides. Magomedov, who is blind in one eye, got rocked early by Petrosyan, a former sparring partner. He weathered the storm and came back strong, ultimately landing just the 11th spinning backfist knockout in UFC history and remaining undefeated. This week, we head north. It will mark the 34th time that the UFC has been held in Canada, the fifth in Alberta and its third time in Edmonton. The Main Event The main event features Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) taking on Amir Albazi (17-1). Albazi has the more impressive record but Moreno is a -165 favorite. The over 4.5 rounds is priced at -210. So, this fight has a pretty good chance of going the full five rounds. "The Prince" Albazi hails from Iraq. His last fight was in June of 2023, a split decision victory over Kai Kara-France. (Moreno has beaten Kara-France twice.) That was his 6th straight win. Nine of his 17 victories have come via submission. Off back-to-back loses, Mexican fighter Brandon Moreno, the former flyweight champion, is anxious to get back on track. Having fought Deiveson Figueiredo four times and other opponents like Brandon Royval and Alexander Pantoja, twice each, Moreno has taken on much tougher opposition. The 4 fights versus Figueiredo absolutely added to Moreno's resume but they may have also taken a toll. Eleven of Moreno's 21 wins have come via submission. Each of his last 2 losses were by split decision. So, he's been very close. As a matter of fact, all 8 of Moreno's career losses have been by decision. He's never been stopped. The winner of this fight will hope to take on Pantoja for the belt. Prediction: In a fight that is expected to go five rounds, I like Moreno's chances of being ahead on the scorecards. He's been in many 5 round wars before. Albazi has only gone 5 rounds once, a split decision win over a fighter which Moreno previously KO'd. Go with Moreno.The Co Main Event In the co-main event, Erin Blanchfield (12-2) is a -135 favorite over former champion Rose Namajunas (13-6). Blanchfield had a 9-fight winning streak snapped last time out, losing to Manon Fiorot. Namajunas also previously lost a decision to Fiorot but has since responded with consecutive victories. Like the main event, this fight is expected to go the full five rounds. There is a price tag of -270 on the over 4.5 round option. Previously a strawweight, "Thug" Rose now fights at flyweight. Not only does she dream of being a two division champion but Namajunas says that the weight cuts are now a lot easier and that she is healthier as a result. Prediction: This was previously going to be the main event. Though it was shifted to the co-main event, it remained 5 rounds instead of 3. The same way that will give an edge to Moreno in the main event, it's going to favor Namajunas in this one. She's had many 5 round battles before, including 4 of her last 5. Blanchfield has only gone 5 rounds once and she lost. Go with Namajunas.

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UFC Fight Night, Royval vs Taira: Preview and Picks

Sunday, Oct 06, 2024

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Taira Saturday, October 12UFC Apex - Las VegasLast week's event in Salt Lake City ended with a violent and bloody TKO. This Saturday, the UFC is back at the UFC Apex, in Las Vegas. These "Fight Night" cards don't necessarily have the biggest names but they almost always feature some exciting battles. Of course, they're much better if you've got someone to root for. On that note, let's take a look at some of our options.  The Main Event  Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro TairaTaira -192The Main Event sees veteran Brandon Royval take on Tatsuro Taira. Both of these flyweights have 16 victories. Royval also has seven losses. Taira is undefeated. Hailing from Japan, Taira is still just 24 years old. A well-rounded fighter, he can win by knockout, submission or decision. The 32-year old Royval has fought much tougher opponents. An unorthodox fighter, he's off a (split) decision win over Brandon Moreno, avenging a 2020 defeat. Before that, he'd come up short, for the second time, against Alexandre Pantoja. That one also went to the scorecards. Prior to those two decisions, Royval had won three straight, a KO, a submission and a split decision. Royval is the taller fighter but Taira still has a healthy 5-inch reach advantage. Though older, Royval will likely have an edge in terms of conditioning. He's been in some wars and has proven to have good stamina. That may not matter much though, as the younger fighter could finish this one in the first or second round.  Prediction: Both fighters are versatile but Taira does everything better. He's one of Japan's rising young stars. With big fights in his future, he will remain undefeated after Saturday. Play on Taira  The Co-Main EventJun Yong Park vs. Brad TavaresPark -170These middleweights were supposed to square off against each other back in July. Both fighters had already made weight but then Park had to pull out with an undisclosed injury. A few months later, they'll try again. The 36-year old Tavares (20-9) has been around a long time. As a matter of fact, he will set a record by competing in his 25th middleweight fight of his UFC career. That'll pass Michael Bisping for most total appearances in the weight class. Tavares also has a chance to tie Bisping for most wins in the division. Also, he could pass him in total Octagon time depending on how long Saturday's fight lasts. Indeed, he's been around the block. Over that time, Tavares has fought many of the best fighters, guys like Adesanya, Whittaker and Du Plessis. Though he beat Chris Weidman (well past his prime) last year, Tavares is off a loss and is 1-3 his last four fights, 3-4 his last seven. At 33-years old, Park is also an experienced fighter. "The Iron Turtle" checks in with a 17-6 record. His last fight was a split-decision loss in December 2023. That one easily could have gone his way. Before that, Park had won four straight. Both fighters have a tendency to "go the distance." Tavares has seen no fewer than 13 of his 20 wins (and four of his nine losses) go to the scorecards. Nine of Park's fights, including six of his victories, have been decided by the judges. Though it should be mentioned that each of his last three wins came via submission. Prediction: Tavares isn't what he used to be while Park could be 5-0 his last five if not for a controversial decision. Park typically likes to wait for the action to come to him and then looks to counter. Tavrares isn't exactly known for his aggression these days. This may lead a "snooze-fest" that ends up going the full 15 minutes. Regardless of whether or not that proves to be the case, "The Iron Turtle" will ultimate have his arm raised. Play on Park.The ShockerChris Barnett vs Junior TafaBarnett +300 Junior Tafa is a substantial favorite in this fight. He's 10 years younger. He's in better shape and he's the more skilled fighter. He's also lost two straight and is taking this fight on short notice. Chris Barnett, who was originally slated to fight Waldo Cortes Acosta, has been waiting two years to get back in the Octagon. He has 23 wins on his resume compared to five for Tafa. When guys are this big, one hit can change everything. Looking to get behind a "huge" underdog that could surprise? Play on Barnett.Off five straight wins,Will Rogers is now 18-2 with his UFC picks in 2024

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UFC Fight Night Preview and Picks

Sunday, Sep 22, 2024

UFC Fight Night Moicano vs. Saint-Denis  Saturday, September 28thAccor Arena - ParisThe UFC returns to Paris for the third straight September on Saturday. MMA wasn't legalized in France until 2020. So, the French have a relatively short history of fights here. The first time the UFC came here was in September of 2022. That inaugural event saw French heavyweight Cyrl Gane defeat Tui Tuivasa. Last September, the UFC returned. Once again, Gane was the headliner. Once again, he came through for the home faithful, defeating Serghei Spivak. Gane isn't part of this week's card. Instead, France's Benoit "God Of War" St. Denis, an exciting lightweight will face Brazil's Renato "Moicano" Carneiro. Let's take a closer look at the two biggest bouts. The Main Event  Moicano vs. Saint-Denis Saint-Denis -2752.5 under -155As one can tell by the odds, Saint-Denis is expected to win this fight. The 28-year old "God of War" has a 13-2 record. He was last seen getting KO'd by Dustin Poirier this past March. Prior to that, he'd won five straight. Saint-Denis can win in a variety of different ways. One of his recent victories was a head-kick KO. Two were TKO's by punches. One was a face-crank submission while another was a rear-naked choke submission. One thing all six of those fights had in common was that none of them made it past the second round. As a matter of fact, only one of his 15 fights, one of the two losses, ever went to the judges. At 35 years old, "Moicano" has been around for a while. He fought recognizable names like Brian Ortega, Cub Swanson and Jose Aldo back in 2017-2019 but has been matched up against lesser known opposition of late. He is 3-0 his past 3 fights though, a TKO, a decision and a submission. Prediction: Inspired by the French fans, Saint-Denis is going to be too much for the older Brazilian. Though warranted, the heavy price tag is too much for my taste. Instead, the play is on the Under 2.5 rounds. Moicano has been stopped four times and none of Saint-Denis' 13 victories have gone past the second round. Play on the Under. The Co-Main Event  Allen vs ImavovImavov -2102.5 over -200American middleweight Brendan Allen (24-5) takes on France's Nassourdine Imavov (14-4) in the (3-round) co-main event. Though not quite as expensive as Saint-Denis, the French fighter is again a fairly steep favorite. Since losing a decision to Sean Strickland, Imavov is undefeated. He's very skilled but Allen also comes in full of confidence. The American is 7-0 his past 7 fights and 9-1 his last 10. In his last fight, Allen defeated Chris Curtis, the last fighter to have beaten him. (Imavov and Curtis also fought once but it was declared a no contest due to a clash of heads.) Prediction: This one will likely go the distance with Imavov winning by decision. Unless the price comes down, I'm unlikely to be involved. 

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UFC 306 Preview and Picks

Monday, Sep 09, 2024

UFC 306 - Noche UFC O'Malley vs Dvalishvili Saturday, September 14thThe Sphere - Las VegasThe UFC returns to Las Vegas this Saturday. This time, however, the fights won't be held at the UFC Apex. Nor will they be in a casino. Instead, for the first (and perhaps only) time ever, they will take place in The Sphere. It's an extra special event and the card is loaded with exciting fights. Known as UFC Noche, it'll be a celebration of Mexican and Latin American culture and competitors. The Main Event features bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley taking on number one contender Merab Dvalishvil. The co-Main Event sees Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko square off for the third time. Additionally, there are eight other fights. Let's take a closer look at the two biggest ones. The Main Event O'Malley vs DvalishviliO'Malley -1304.5 over -145 The bantamweight championship of the world will be up for grabs on Saturday. As of Monday, "Suga" Shane O'Malley, the champion, is a modest -130 favorite against Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili. If betting on the over 4.5 rounds, one has to lay somewhere in the -140 to -150 range. That line suggests that this one has a fairly strong chance of going the distance. Off six straight wins, O'Malley is now 18-1 for his career. His lone loss came against Marlon Vera in 2020. O'Malley avenged that loss by defeating Vera this past March. At 5-foot-11, the 29-year old champ is tall for a bantamweight. Suga is a very dangerous striker. Twelve of his 18 wins have been via KO/TKO. Five came by decision and one by submission. Off 10 straight wins, Dvalishvili (17-4) hasn't tasted defeat since 2018. At 5-foot-6, "The Machine" is giving up a lot of height to O'Malley. Nine of his past 10 fights, including each of his past three, have been decided by the judges. With most of O'Malley's victories coming by KO, it should be mentioned that Dvalishvili has never been knocked out. Three of his four losses have been decisions, the other was by submission.  Prediction: This should be an excellent fight. In my estimation, it's too close to call. Given Dvalishvili's tendency to go the scorecards and the fact that he has never been knocked out, the Over 4.5 rounds looks like the way to go. The Co-Main Event  Grasso vs. ShevchenkoGrasso -1304.5 over -170Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko (24-3-1) and Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) will be meeting for a third time. Once again, the women’s flyweight title will be on the line. Shevchenko was a massive favorite (like -900 or -1000) when she first faced Grasso, last March. Grasso shocked Shevchenko and the world with one of the biggest upsets that the UFC has seen. It was a fourth round (face-crank) submission victory. Shevchenko was still favored for the rematch. The -165 line was much lower that it was for the first fight though. That was exactly one year ago, at the first Noche UFC. That one resulted in a draw. This time, it's Grasso who is favored. If she can win, she will be considered the undisputed champion. However, if Bullet can win, it'll be 1-1-1. That might very well set up a fourth and final fight between these two. Shevchenko is now 36 years old while Grasso is 31. They both stand at 5-foot-5. Ten of Grasso's 16 victories (and two of her three losses) have come by decision. Shevchenko has eight KO's, seven submissions and eight decision victories. Prediction: This will be another war but when the dust settles, I expect Shevchenko to score the minor upset and reclaim her belt. 

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UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Monday, Aug 12, 2024

UFC 305Du Plessis vs. AdesanyaSaturday, August 17RAC Arena - Perth, Western AustraliaThe UFC returns to Perth on August 17th. Recall that Islam Makhachev beat Alexander Volkanowski here last year, at UFC 284. That was a great night and a stacked UFC 305 card is also filled with exciting match-ups. Many of the top Australian fighters will be partaking. I've taken a closer look at the biggest one, Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya for the middleweight belt. In addition to providing the backstory and previewing the fight I've also given an option on how to play it.  The Main Event Du Plessis vs. AdesanyaAdesanya -1304.5 under -155 The middleweight championship of the world will be up for grabs in Perth, on Saturday. Du Plessis (21-2) is the champion. Adesanya (24-3), the former champ, is the betting favorite. You may remember that Adensaya lost the belt to Strickland. Then Du Plessis beat Strickland, in a very close split decision. Now, "The Last Stylebender" wants his belt back.  There's some genuine bad blood between these guys. After Du Plessis defeated Robert Whittaker last summer, Adesnaya got into the ring and had some pretty harsh words for Du Plessis. If you didn't know the back-story, Adesanya's rant wouldn't have made any sense. Among the comments which Adesanya made was: "I don't need a DNA test, I don't need a [DNA test] to know where I'm from. If they do a [DNA test] it'll say I'm from Nigeria. Do a DNA test, it'll tell you where you're from." That was actually in reply to something which Du Plessis had said several weeks earlier where he talked about bringing the belt back to Africa and becoming the first true African champion. Of course, that angered the likes of Ngannou, Usman and Adesanya, all former champions who were born in Africa. (Du Plesis reasoned that all three of those previous African champions had left Africa by the time they won the belt.)  Adesanya replied: “He’ll never understand that because he lives behind the f*cking gates of his privileged life in South Africa, and he’s able to do that there. So someone like Francis, who had to cross the desert to go overseas to go train – if you know Francis’ story, you can’t call him not a real African champion because he didn’t train in Africa. Like, bro – are you f*cking kidding? The guy got sent back out to the desert six, seven times to go die, and he survived.” Adesanya added that he, Ngannou and Usman are the very reason why Du Plessis had the opportunity to become champion: “Even without Francis being champion, without myself being champion, without Kamaru being champion, he would have never been champion. We paved the way for him, and then he comes out there and tries to take it all for himself. I wonder where he got that from. What kind of mindset is that, like, ‘Oh, I see this and I want it all for myself’? "What kind of mindset is it that you see three African champions and you’re going to be the fourth one? You could have said it would be a great honor to be out of the legends of African champions that have been in the UFC. He tries to take it all for himself. That’s a colonist mindset. He doesn’t understand the error of his ways, but I will show him the way. … Dricus will always be an African champion, but he’ll never be one of the three kings.” Du Plesis has an unorthodox style of fighting. A well-rounded fighter, he's unpredictable. He has 10 KO/TKO wins and nine submissions. He's physically strong and applies a lot of pressure. Only two of his 23 fights have gone the distance. Adesanya, three inches taller, is the more dangerous striker. He's never submitted anyone but has 16 KO/TKO victories to his credit. He's 8-2 when the fight gets decided by the judges. Adesanya has lost 2 of his last 3 fights. Du Plesis has won 9 straight.  Longtime Adesanya rival Alex Pereira provided his opinion of the fight: “[People] asked me about Adesanya and du Plessis, I said I don’t see Adesanya losing ... It’s what I think. I don’t think he loses this fight. I hope he wins because he has a beautiful story. I think he has to continue his story.” Prediction: Du Plessis was fortunate to get the victory against Strickland and he didn't do himself any favors with his comments about being the true African champion. I agree with Pereira that I don't see an angry Adesanya losing. Lay the reasonable price with the former champ. Play on Adesanya

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Fight Night Preview And Main Event O/U Winner

Sunday, Aug 04, 2024

UFC Fight NightTybura vs. Spivac 2Saturday, August 10th UFC Apex - Las Vegas, NVFight Night returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 10th. The Main Event is a rematch between Marcin Tybura and Sergey Spivak. Tybura won by unanimous decision when these two heavyweights previously faced each other. That was more than four years ago. Both fighers have seen a lot of action since then. I've previewed Saturday's rematch below and I've also provided a prediction. The Main EventThis may not turn out to be the the most exciting fight but it's still an intriguing matchup. When Tybura (25-8) and Spivak (16-4) first met, Spivak had just turned 25 years old. Tybura was already 34. The more experienced fighter won rather comfortably. At 29, Spivak is now in his prime. In theory, only a few months away from his 39th birthday, Tybura should be slowing down. There's no real evidence to support that though.  Tybura submitted Tuivasa in the first round only a few months ago and he is now 8-2 dating back to his win in the first fight. The two losses were against a pair of tough opponents in Aspinall and Volkov. Prior to the first fight with Spivak, Tybura was off back-to-back losses and had dropped four of five. Despite his age, Tybura enters in better form than he was in 2020.  The same could arguably be said of "The Polar Bear." Spivak lost to Gane in his last fight but is 6-2 since first meeting Tybura. His other loss came against Aspinall. Outside of Jon Jones, Gane and Aspinall are among the best in the world. Spivak's losses have also come against top level opponents. In addition to each being battle-tested, both these giants are fairly well-rounded, as far as heavyweights go. They both prefer to wrestle but each can win by either KO or by submission. Tybura's fights go the distance far more often than Spivak's. He's won nine of 12 decisions over his career. Spivak has only had three, winning two. They're both heavier than they were for the first fight. Unlike a lot of main events, this one is expected to be quite even. Money has started to come in on the younger fighter. After opening at a pick'em, Spivak is currently a -135 favorite. (Draft Kings on Sunday Aug. 4th) The O/U line for the total number of rounds is set at 3.5, the under set at -115.  Prediction: Heavyweight fights can end quickly but this one probably won't. Three of Tybura's last five fights have gone to the scorecards. With both being skilled wrestlers, Tybura and Spivak should have the ability to neutralize each other's strength. There will be a lot of time spent on the ground without much happening. That works for me. Go with Over 3.5 Rounds.   

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