by Will Rogers
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025
UFC 316 - DVALISHVILI vs O'MALLEY II
Saturday, June 7th
Prudential Center - Newark, NJ
The final fight card of May, UFC Vegas 107, was a dud. Leading up to fight day, there were numerous cancellations. Matchups were changed. Several fighters missed weight. Worst of all, mere moments before it was scheduled to start, the Main Event was scratched. This was a result of Maycee Barber pulling out with a "severe medical issue." With two titles on the line and a bevy of other exciting fights scheduled, UFC 316 promises to deliver a much better product. Let's get into it.
The Main Event
Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley will be fighting for the bantamweight title for the second time. Dvalishvili won a decision when they fought in 2024. At the time, O'Malley was the champion. The line was essentially a pick'em. This time, Dvalishvili is the champ and he's laying roughly -300.
O'Malley, an elite striker, is younger, taller and has a reach advantage. Dvalishvili's grappling skills are next level though. After his win over O'Malley, Dvalishvili defeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who had previously been 18-0. That makes it 12 straight wins for Dvalishvili. He's taken on tough competition and he's dominated. O'Malley hasn't fought since the previous meeting. He's committed himself to learning from the loss and improving his skills and conditioning.
The Pick: Under 4.5 Rounds +212. The O/U line was 4.5o-120 or -130 for the first fight. Now, the O/U line is 4.5o-280. That brings a take-back of better than +200 on the under 4.5 rounds. That's where the value is, in my opinion. While O'Malley has had a few recent decisions, he'd previously had a stretch of six straight KO/TKO victories. Though Dvalishvili does often win by decision, he's fully capable of stopping O'Malley. He says that's his plan, too: “He’s always looking for a finish,” Dvalishvili said about O’Malley. "He wants to knock you out. I’m just gonna strike and knock him out. This fight, I’m gonna prove how crazy I am. I’m gonna box with him." O'Malley responded: “If that’s his game plan, that would be stupid.”
The Co Main Event
The women's bantamweight title is on the line in the Co-Main Event. Former gold-medalist, Kayla Harrison (18-1) is a heavy -600 favorite over Juliana Pena. Harrison made her promotional debut last April at UFC 300 event, submitting former champion Holly Holm in the second round. She followed up the victory over Holm with a unanimous decision over Ketlen Viera. While everyone is pretty much giving this one to Harrison, don't forget that Pena (12-5) once shocked Amanda Nunes. Not only has Pena fought Nunes twice, she's previously battled against Shevchenko. She won't be intimidated. The O/U line is 4.5 under -135.
The Big Guys
One of the more competitive fights on the card sees Serghei "The Polar Bear" Spivak take on Waldo "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta. Both these guys are in the 265-pound range. Spivak (17-5) is currently a -125 favorite over Cortes-Acosta. Spivak was stopped in the first round of his last fight after earning a first round submission victory before that. Cortes-Acosta (13-1) is off four straight victories. Salsa Boy has the better record but The Polar Bear has taken on better opposition.
The Pick: Under 2.5 under Rounds -135. When guys are this large, the fights often don't last long. As a matter of fact, none of Spivak's last seven fights have made it past the second round. Five were first round finishes. Cortes-Acosta checks in off a second round TKO win over Ryan Spann.
Saturday, June 7th
Prudential Center - Newark, NJ
The final fight card of May, UFC Vegas 107, was a dud. Leading up to fight day, there were numerous cancellations. Matchups were changed. Several fighters missed weight. Worst of all, mere moments before it was scheduled to start, the Main Event was scratched. This was a result of Maycee Barber pulling out with a "severe medical issue." With two titles on the line and a bevy of other exciting fights scheduled, UFC 316 promises to deliver a much better product. Let's get into it.
The Main Event
Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley will be fighting for the bantamweight title for the second time. Dvalishvili won a decision when they fought in 2024. At the time, O'Malley was the champion. The line was essentially a pick'em. This time, Dvalishvili is the champ and he's laying roughly -300.
O'Malley, an elite striker, is younger, taller and has a reach advantage. Dvalishvili's grappling skills are next level though. After his win over O'Malley, Dvalishvili defeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who had previously been 18-0. That makes it 12 straight wins for Dvalishvili. He's taken on tough competition and he's dominated. O'Malley hasn't fought since the previous meeting. He's committed himself to learning from the loss and improving his skills and conditioning.
The Pick: Under 4.5 Rounds +212. The O/U line was 4.5o-120 or -130 for the first fight. Now, the O/U line is 4.5o-280. That brings a take-back of better than +200 on the under 4.5 rounds. That's where the value is, in my opinion. While O'Malley has had a few recent decisions, he'd previously had a stretch of six straight KO/TKO victories. Though Dvalishvili does often win by decision, he's fully capable of stopping O'Malley. He says that's his plan, too: “He’s always looking for a finish,” Dvalishvili said about O’Malley. "He wants to knock you out. I’m just gonna strike and knock him out. This fight, I’m gonna prove how crazy I am. I’m gonna box with him." O'Malley responded: “If that’s his game plan, that would be stupid.”
The Co Main Event
The women's bantamweight title is on the line in the Co-Main Event. Former gold-medalist, Kayla Harrison (18-1) is a heavy -600 favorite over Juliana Pena. Harrison made her promotional debut last April at UFC 300 event, submitting former champion Holly Holm in the second round. She followed up the victory over Holm with a unanimous decision over Ketlen Viera. While everyone is pretty much giving this one to Harrison, don't forget that Pena (12-5) once shocked Amanda Nunes. Not only has Pena fought Nunes twice, she's previously battled against Shevchenko. She won't be intimidated. The O/U line is 4.5 under -135.
The Big Guys
One of the more competitive fights on the card sees Serghei "The Polar Bear" Spivak take on Waldo "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta. Both these guys are in the 265-pound range. Spivak (17-5) is currently a -125 favorite over Cortes-Acosta. Spivak was stopped in the first round of his last fight after earning a first round submission victory before that. Cortes-Acosta (13-1) is off four straight victories. Salsa Boy has the better record but The Polar Bear has taken on better opposition.
The Pick: Under 2.5 under Rounds -135. When guys are this large, the fights often don't last long. As a matter of fact, none of Spivak's last seven fights have made it past the second round. Five were first round finishes. Cortes-Acosta checks in off a second round TKO win over Ryan Spann.
