Sports Picks For Sale - Vegas Writer

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  • PRESEASON: AFC GAME OF THE WEEK and AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK ready to roll

Biography

Vegas Writer is a journalist/social media influencer entrenched in Southern Nevada from every aspect when it comes to sports.

Active since: 1992

Location: Las Vegas, NV

If it comes to sports in Las Vegas, the Vegas Writer is probably writing about it, whether you can bet on it or not.

From the NFL to NHL, to NBA, to WNBA, to NFR, to AHL, to MiLB - you get the picture. There isn't a day of the week the Vegas Writer is not writing something about sports. Not a week goes by without the Vegas Writer wearing a credential to an event.

Satellite radio, national and local radio spots, and the occasional TV guest appearance - the Vegas Writer is everywhere his followers need him to be when it comes to covering sporting events.

And the one area Vegas Writer has thrived in since his first radio appearance in the 1990s is sports gambling. He has been on TV and radio. He has worked as a columnist for one of the leading Las Vegas-based sports-betting media outlets. He has written freelance betting articles for many of the sites you visit every single day.

Finally, the Vegas Writer has decided it's time for you to benefit from his travels around town, as he's transitioning into the world of handicapping due to the amount of work he puts into the articles he is currently producing. He is a numbers guy, using a heavy dose of analytics for the stories he writes for his sports-gaming beat for one particular media outlet. For others, he is constantly in touch with the local teams and their opponents, so he knows these games inside and out.

And what the Vegas Writer has come to learn is that neither a sports betting beat writer, nor a handicapper is a part-time worker. It takes a full-time effort to understand the teams, the games, and the numbers.  And one of his biggest advantages is that he knows the nuances of each team.

Another important thing to understand is that, just because the Vegas Writer talks to players and coaches on the field, and is around locker rooms every day during the season, there isn't any "Inside Info" here. You're simply getting an expert sports betting opinion from a veteran writer who knows the games inside-and-out.

That's the Vegas Writer's job, and has been since 1992.

Now, let's go make some money.

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WNBA - Wed, Aug 10 at 8:00 PM

VEGAS WRITER'S FREE WNBA WINNER

New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings

New York Liberty +3.5 (-110) (Caesars)

Let's roll with the New York Liberty plus the points tonight, as they still have work to do, while the Dallas Wings are locked in as the No. 6 seed in the WNBA Playoffs. While the top five are jockeying for position, teams currently slotted between 7th and 11th are battling for seeds seven and ei...

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MLB - Moneyline - Wed, Aug 10

VEGAS WRITER'S MLB PERFECT 100% SERIES ANGLE

Went 2-1 on Tuesday, including a 2-0 showing in MLB. I'm No. 1 on the leaderboard both in Baseball (10-0, +$10,200) a...

$30

WNBA - Over / Under - Wed, Aug 10

VW'S WNBA WESTERN CONF. TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Went 2-1 on Tuesday and I'm still No. 1 on the overall leaderboard (13-2, +$11,900) for the last seven days. In each ...

$30

MLB - Moneyline - Wed, Aug 10

VEGAS WRITER'S MLB RED-HOT HOME MISMATCH

Went 2-1 on Tuesday, including a 2-0 showing in MLB. I'm No. 1 on the leaderboard both in Baseball (10-0, +$10,200) a...

$30

NFL - Point Spread - Fri, Aug 12

VEGAS WRITER'S AFC PRESEASON GAME OF THE WEEK

Went 2-1 on Tuesday, part of a 15-2 run (+$13,000) to start August. And part of that winning run was a victory in the...

$30

NFL - Over / Under - Thu, Aug 11

VW'S AFC PRESEASON TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Went 2-1 on Tuesday, part of a 15-2 run (+$13,000) to start August. And part of that winning run was a victory in the...

$30

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How will Juan Soto's big bat help the Padres the rest of the way?

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

It's about time!The Juan Soto sweepstakes landed in San Diego, as the Padres came away with the slugger, joining Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado.The interesting thing will be to see if the Padres blow another opportunity to make a deep run into the playoffs with yet another talented lineup. I mean, they still have a tough road ahead of them. They're locked into a wild-card slot and potentially won't see a home game in that wild-card series. The road goes through the likes of Atlanta, Queens, and Los Angeles.Nevertheless, the odds have dropped now that San Diego won the Soto Sweepstakes.At the Westgate in Las Vegas, the Padres were 18/1 for the World Series and 9/1 for the National League pennant before rumors began circulating about landing Soto, which dropped the odds to 14/1 and 7/1. After Tuesday's trade, the Padres have settled in at +475 to win the N.L. and 10/1 to win it all.A quick glance at what landing Soto means to the Padres, with consideration to the remaining 18 series they have, after finishing their current five-game series with the Colorado Rockies in San Diego.Of those series, 10 of them are against National League West foes, including four with the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, who landed Joey Gallo from the New York Yankees at the deadline.So what does Soto bring to the lineup, based on his history against those teams? With the Padres' current season record against each remaining opponent in parenthesis, here are some tidbits on Soto vs. those teams:N.L. WEST OPPONENTS Dodgers (2-5) - In 19 games against Los Angeles, he is hitting a mere .213 and has struck out 13 times. ... He's drawn 13 walks from L.A. pitchers, matching the number of hits he has against them. Giants (6-4) - The 16 strikeouts Soto has against Frisco are second highest among N.L. West teams. ... He strikes out once every 5.6 plate appearances against the Giants and is hitting .230 in 22 games against them. Diamondbacks (9-3) - Surprisingly, Soto has been snakebitten against Arizona. He's hitting just .187 and has struck out 11 times in 21 games against the Snakes. Rockies (4-8) - If there's one N.L. West foe he's had success against, it's Colorado. He has a career .241 batting average against the Rockies, including a .244 clip in Denver. ... Four of the six home runs he's hit against the Rockies have been in the Mile High City. OUTSIDE THE WEST Nationals (0-0) - Soto returns to D.C. for a three-game weekend set from Aug. 12-14. ... The Padres haven't faced the Nats yet, and obviously, Soto has never faced them. ... He is hitting .241 and slugging .500 at Nationals Park this season, and has slugged 11 of his 21 home runs there. ... He has a career .293 batting average in the only stadium he's called home until Tuesday's trade. Marlins (3-1) - A familiar foe from the N.L. East, he's had some success against the Fish, with a .310 batting average and .567 slugging percentage against them. He's also stroked 13 home runs against Miami pitchers. Cardinals (0-3) - Soto has had his struggles against St. Louis, too, hitting only .226 while striking out 16 times. He has only one home run against the Redbirds while striking out once every 5.1 plate appearances. INTERLEAGUE PLAY Guardians (1-1), Royals (0-0), Mariners (0-2), White Sox (0-0) - I'll wrap up the Interleague in one shot, with the Padres sporting a 4-6 mark against teams from the American League thus far. Soto has a career .293 mark against all A.L. teams while slugging .521 with 16 home runs. Of the four A.L. opponents he'll see with the Padres, he's had the most success against the Sox, with a .467 batting average and .533 slugging percentage.

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Tracking Starting Pitchers' Success During Final Stretch is Important

Tuesday, Jul 26, 2022

As we approach the final stretch of the MLB season, it's important to zero in on pitchers who can give us the best bang for our buck.I'm not a huge advocate of listing pitchers on every wager. I've always been of the opinion when specific systems leave pitchers out of the equation, you have to insist on "action only."Other times, it makes sense to list the pitchers. But who are the right ones?I researched starting pitchers during a 30-day span (June 26-July 25), honing in on starters with an ERA below 2.50 combined with an opponent's batting average less than .200, provided the pitchers have thrown a minimum of 20 innings.Chicago White Sox's Dylan Cease, Miami's Sandy Alcantara, Arizona's Merrill Kelly, Cleveland's Triston McKenzie, and Houston's Jose Urquidy have been the stingiest starting pitchers in that span, with a combined 1.64 ERA and an opponent's batting average of .170.And allow me to point out, these guys are lasting an average of 6 2/3 innings per outing, which is imperative to also apply to your handicapping when looking at these pitchers. After all, it's important to know a heavily priced team has a starting pitcher with the durability to last late into games so they can neutralize lineups.Here is a closer look at each one (L30 Days): Cease (5-1, 0.74 ERA, .182 OBA) - Forget 30 days, over his last 11 starts, the right-hander is 6-2 with a grubby 0.42 ERA, while the White Sox are 9-2 in those games. Teams are hitting a meager .179 against him and he's registered strikes with 61% of his pitches. He also has a 2.7-to-1 strikeout ratio, with 83 strikeouts vs. 30 walks. BE WARY: if he faces the Red Sox, as he's 0-1 in two starts with a 9.00 ERA against them this season. Alcantara (2-1, 1.42 ERA, .164 OBA) - The Miami right-hander has allowed more than two earned runs just twice this season and is sporting a ridiculous 1.81 ERA in 20 starts this season. Teams have a paltry .187 batting average against him, while he has a very stingy 3.6-to-1 strikeout ratio, with 133 strikeouts vs. 36 walks. BE WARY: in Interleague play, as he's 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two starts this season and 4-7 with a 3.33 ERA lifetime in 16 career starts. Kelly (4-0, 1.57 ERA, .175 OBA) - After rough months in May and June, the Snakes' right-hander has been lights out in July with a 4-0 mark in five starts and a 1.57 ERA. He's limiting lineups to a .175 batting average and a .214 on-base percentage. He's also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs. BE WARY: against the Dodgers, who have beaten him in all three of his starts against them (0-3, 9.69). McKenzie (3-0, 2.20 ERA, .184 OBA) - After an atrocious June that saw the Guardians' righty hammered to the tune of a 6.44 ERA, McKenzie has allowed just one earned run in July and is 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA. He's shut down the Yankees, Royals, Tigers, and Chisox, holding them to a combined .146 batting average and allowed 0 HRs. BE WARY: when he faces the Twins, as he's 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three starts against them. Urquidy (3-0, 2.43 ERA, .149 OBA) - Houston's right-hander has been spotty at times, but he's durable and has a decent lineup backing him up. Since June 21, spanning his last six starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and has quieted hitters to a .153 batting average and .210 on-base percentage. BE WARY: when he faces the Mariners, as he's 1-3 with a 7.58 ERA against them.

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WNBA Midseason Report Numbers

Monday, Jul 11, 2022

If balance and defense win championships, the Seattle Storm should be atop everyone's list to win the WNBA title.Whether or not Sue Bird can ride off into the Pacific Northwest sunset with another ring in the final season of her illustrious career remains to be seen, but it wouldn't shock me.The Las Vegas Aces started out with guns blazing but fizzled down the stretch of the first half, and suddenly look like a defensive casualty that allows any offense to look good.They're the top two teams in the Western Conference, no bones about it, as one-half game separates the Storm from first-place Las Vegas.From the Eastern Conference, Sky's the limit for defending champion Chicago, which leads Connecticut by two games. But I wouldn't count the Sun out so easily with reigning MVP Jonquel Jones leading the charge.Then there are the wild cards from each conference.The West is suddenly clogged in the middle of the standings with Dallas, Los Angeles, and Phoenix all sitting on 10 wins, while last-place Minnesota was one of the better performing teams heading into the All-Star Break.From the East, it's Washington with the No. 1 scoring defense sitting in third place, while Atlanta could be dangerous if it gets back to the way it started the season. Since winning seven of their first 11, the Dream are 3-8. There's also hard-charging New York, which has won eight of 13 since a 1-7 start.Here is a quick glance at some ATS and O/U numbers heading into the start of the second half of the season:WESTERN CONFERENCE Las Vegas' fast start saw it win nine of its first 10 and cover eight of those games. Since then, the Aces are 6-6 SU and 2-10 ATS. They're on a 5-2-2 over run coming out of the Break.After Seattle's sluggish start to the campaign, splitting its first 10 on the hardwood and failing to cover 10 of its first 15, it has won 10 of 13 SU and six of eight at the window. Dallas opened the season by covering eight of its first 12 but is just 4-5-1 ATS since. The Wings stayed under in five of their last six. Phoenix is doing its best to keep things together and has been relying on its defense to stay close in games. Four of the Mercury's last six have stayed under. Los Angeles finished the first half competitive against some heavy competition, covering five of its last six games. Minnesota opened the season 3-13 but won five of its final seven before the Break. More importantly, the Lynx come into the second half of the season on an 8-1 ATS run. EASTERN CONFERENCE Chicago might be 16-6 on the year, and it might be proving it's not about to relinquish its title so easily, but don't be so quick to lay points with the Sky. They're 6-11 ATS as a favorite. Incidentally, the defending champs are 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Connecticut stumbled a bit to close the first half, losing four of six on the floor. The Suns also dropped five of their last six to the books. Connecticut stayed low in eight of its last 10. Washington has been the more consistent cover this season, having cashed out a WNBA best 15 of 24 games. The Mystics have also stayed under in 16 of their 24 outings. Atlanta won six of its first nine games but has lost nine of 13. The Dream tend to go over, with seven of their last 10 soaring past the number. New York opened the season 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS; since then the Liberty have won eight of 14 while covering 10 of those contests. New York has covered eight of its last 11 as an underdog. Indiana is the worst team in the league, with a 5-19 SU mark. The Fever are 8-16 ATS on the year. When catching +7 or more, the Fever are 4-9 ATS.

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Lucrative NHL Futures attractive with four teams

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

The Colorado Avalanche hadn't been champions of the National Hockey League for 24 hours when the conversation about next season was underway.Moments after the final horn sounded and the Avalanche polished off the two-time champion Tampa Bay Lightning, the newly crowned champs were installed as the favorite to repeat in 2023.The Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers are next in line, followed by the Lightning.None of the aforementioned were higher than 10-1 to win it, which automatically disqualifies them from my window of opportunity when talking about value.For me, no matter the league, if I'm playing a future price, I want the biggest number I can get with a team I think can get into the playoffs and challenge.But when it comes to the NHL, the team can sneak its way into the postseason, and I'll be just fine with a big futures ticket. After all, the No. 1 overall seed hasn't won the title in more than 10 years. And when it comes to hockey, it's generally about the hot team, with the right coach and the best goaltender.That's why I've assembled a quartet of teams for you to consider if you're feeling froggy about the 2023 Stanley Cup and some awfully big numbers on teams that could quite possibly sneak into the postseason next spring.NEW YORK RANGERS (20-1, courtesy DraftKings) - This is a team that got to the Eastern Conference Final under first-year coach Gerard Gallant, and left plenty on the table for them to eat next season.It really doesn't get much better than Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin, who finished the season with a league-leading 2.07 goals-against average (among goalies with a minimum of 42 starts). Shesterkin will undoubtedly come into next season with a chip on his shoulder after being outdueled by Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy in the ECF.The Rangers also boast high-end forwards Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, a trio that combined for 254 points last season. Kreider ranked third in the league with 52 goals.Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox leads the defensive corps, while up-and-coming talent Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kaako, and K'Andre Miller are all capable of breakout seasons.VANCOUVER CANUCKS (45-1, DK) - There may not have been a more dangerous sleeper down the stretch than the Canucks, in terms of playing the spoiler against playoff-bubble teams. After firing Travis Green, the Canucks were 32-15-10 with Bruce Boudreau as bench boss. Vancouver's .649 points percentage ranked 11th in the NHL during that span, while its 2.67 goals-against average was fifth-lowest in the league. Also in that span, the Canucks had the second-best power play (26.7%) and 11th-best penalty kill (80.5%).Star forward Elias Pettersson was a point-per-game player after the coaching change. The former Calder Memorial Trophy (top rookie) winner could very easily vie for the Hart Trophy (MVP) on any given year as he continues to improve.The Canucks are expected to make personnel changes during the offseason, the biggest being J.T. Miller getting traded. Considering we're talking about a top-tier center who tied for ninth in the NHL with 76 points once Boudreau took over, Vancouver is in position to demand someone decent in return.With Thatcher Demko in goal, the Canucks have a legitimate No. 1 netminder who ranked sixth with his .918 save percentage during Boudreau's tenure.Now roll all of that into the fact Vancouver plays in arguably the worst division in the NHL, and this is most certainly a sneak-into-the-postseason squad.DALLAS STARS (45-1, DK) - There's a new bench boss in Dallas, as ousted coach Peter DeBoer leaves Las Vegas and heads to Big D with his defensive mind and tactical style of coaching.If there is one thing we can take from DeBoer's past, it's that his teams always seem to do well during his first season at the helm (see: New Jersey Devils, San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights, to some extent). He's been to two Stanley Cup Finals, and he knows how to establish chemistry immediately.The Stars head into next season with a No. 1 center in Roope Hintz, who was third on the team with 72 points; a budding star in winger Jason Robertson, who was second with 79 points, including a team-high 41 goals; and an elite defenseman with Miro Heiskanen, who was fifth on the team with 31 assists and led the Stars with an average on-ice time of 24:53.In net, the Stars will have to make a decision, one that shouldn't be hard when potential franchise goalie Jake Oettinger. He played in 48 games last season and finished with a 2.53 goals-against average and .914 save percentage.PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (60-1, DK) - There's no doubt the Flyers are rebuilding, and I'm well aware they'll do so without Claude Giroux. But incoming bench boss John Tortorella is like DeBoer, someone who can rile his players the first season and who will get the most out of his troops. Again, especially at this price, I just want to sneak them into the postseason with a big ticket and hedge my way from there.One of the biggest offseason storylines will be whether or not the Flyers can fix Carter Hart, who is a potential No. 1 goalie. Hart will have competition in camp, as I expect Felix Sandstrom to get a chance in training camp. There's also towering Ivan Fedotov, who stands 6-foot-7 and is 205 pounds, and who could push both for playing time with a strong camp.With plenty of time for rest and recovery since the season ended, and leading into training camp, I would think the Flyers will have Sean Couturier back healthy, along with possibly Ryan Ellis, too.Is there a checklist for the Flyers' offseason, to even contend in their division? Absolutely. But with a new voice on the bench, and a lively vibe in a rowdy sports town, I like the odds on Philly and believe it could be another sneak-into-the-postseason squad.

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