by Vegas Writer
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025We're about to cross over the halfway mark of the NFL season, as Week 9 crept up on us. Suddenly, we're talking playoff position and divisional races.
Entering Week 9, 13 teams have recorded at least five wins this season, the third-most through Week 8 since 1970. Three teams - Baltimore, Miami and the New York Jets - earned victories in Week 8 after entering the week with one or fewer wins.
Here’s a look at a few interesting storylines entering Week 9:
Entering Week 9, 13 teams have recorded at least five wins this season, the third-most through Week 8 since 1970. Three teams - Baltimore, Miami and the New York Jets - earned victories in Week 8 after entering the week with one or fewer wins.
Here’s a look at a few interesting storylines entering Week 9:
- Three of the four division leaders in the AFC - Denver (6-2), Indianapolis (7-1) and New England (6-2) - have at least six wins this season and have winning streaks of four or more games. The two NFC teams with six wins - Philadelphia and Tampa Bay - each have a Week 9 bye. Most importantly, for us, two of those three AFC division leaders with six wins have been the two best choices against the spread: Indianapolis and New England, who are both 6-2 at the window. The Broncos are 3-4-1 ATS.
- Speaking of the Patriots, they'll host the Falcons (3-4) this week and come into th game riding a five-game win streak. A victory would give them six straight wins for the first time since 2021. If you're looking for an indicator toward an over/under, especially with temperatures dropping in Massachusetts and the Falcons being an indoor team, New England ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense, allowing 18.9 points per game. They're one of four teams to allow 20 or fewer points in six games this season.
- A rather critical NFC North showdown takes place in the Motor City this weekend, as the Vikings (3-4) visit Detroit (5-2). The Vikings lead the series 80-45-2, but last year in Week 18, it was the Lions who beat the Vikings, 31-9, to secure the NFC North division title. Be aware, if you're looking for a player prop, and considering Detroit quarterback Jared Goff will be fired up for this game, he has recorded a 116.4 passer rating and 74.9 completion percentage at home this season.
- We have a 2024 AFC Championship Game rematch, as Buffalo (5-2) hosts Kansas City. It will be the ninth matchup, including the postseason, between quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Bills have won the past four regular-season matchups, while the Chiefs have won the past four postseason meetings. In Week 11 last season, the Bills defeated the Chiefs, 30-21, in Buffalo, to hand Kansas City its first loss of the season after a 9-0 start. Buffalo is 3-4 ATS this season, while the Chiefs are 5-3 versus the books.
PRIMETIME NFL
As we kick off Week 9 in the NFL, everyone knows the popularity of the primetime games. We want the edge and a jump start to the bankroll on Thursday's, we love to parlay profits into Sunday's late game, and we all have different reasons to bail out on Monday's.
The dogs dominated early on, but the favorites have made a statement the last two weeks, going 5-2 both SU and ATS, including a 3-0 showing in Week 8.
For the year, the dogs are 13-12-1 SU and 16-10 ATS.
Here are the week-by-week results for underdogs:
WEEK SU ATS
Week 1: 2-1 3-0
Week 2: 2-2 2-2
Week 3: 1-2 2-1
Week 4: 0-1-1 1-1
Week 5: 3-0 3-0
Week 6: 3-1 3-1
Week 7: 2-2 2-2
Week 8: 0-3 0-3
COLLEGE MIDTERMS
As we head to the final quarter pole in college football, I was curious to see the most profitable teams have been. Only two teams have covered at least seven games, only one still has a 0 in the loss column, and a total of four FBS teams have one or fewer losses ATS.
Flipside, every team has covered at least once, with five teams covering just once.
Here are your best of the best...
Memphis 7-1-0
Mississippi St. 7-1-0
Ohio State 6-0-1
San Diego St. 6-1-0
And the worst of the worst...
Penn State 1-6-0
S Houston St. 1-6-0
Baylor 1-7-0
Georgia St. 1-7-0
Oklahoma St. 1-7-0
UNIQUE COLLEGE FB QUARTET
Only four FBS teams have not allowed more than 24 points in a game this season: Auburn, Indiana, Ohio State and Miami.
The latter three don't surprise me, but I was shocked to find out the Tigers have shown such stringency this season, especially after a mediocre 4-4 start.
I did a double-take, but even with a double-overtime loss to Missouri (23-17), the Tigers rank 21st with their scoring defense, having allowed an average of 18.6 points per game.
I suppose that tells us all we need to know about Auburn's offense, right? The Tigers have been held to 17 or fewer in all four of their losses.
WONDERFUL WEMBY
Are we impressed with Victor Wembanyama yet?
You should be, and allow me to point out something that might tell you a bit more about why he's been so much more efficient through the first four games.
The other night, he did something he'd never done before, during the 121-103 victory over Toronto: Wemby didn't take a 3-pointer.
And that's important to note, because last year he averaged nine attempts a game. This season, he's averaging less than three per game.
His most attempts in one game were six, and he drained three. We're still early this season, I know. But we saw this during the preseason.
And in eliminating his 3-pointers, he's correspondingly taking six more 2-pointers per game than he did a year ago. The result: he's averaging seven more points a game, and he's shooting 60% from the field, instead of the mid-40s.
That alone transitions him from being not only an All-Star, but an MVP candidate, all because he is focusing on taking higher percentage shots and using his advantage closer to the rim.
