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AAA Sports has dominated virtually every North American sport since bursting upon the scene in 2012.

Active since: 2012

Location: Saanichton, BC, Canada

Since its founding in the Summer of 2012, AAA Sports has finished with numerous No. 1, Top 5 and Top 10 placements in almost all of the major North American sports. 2019 was one of AAA's very best seasons. AAA finished up over $10,000 in the NFL, and also continued its NBA domination, as its 2-year run in Pro Hoops has garnered a profit of $28,576. But AAA’s success is nothing new. In 2012, AAA finished among the nation’s leaders in the NFL. The stars would also align for AAA in 2013-14 as it would finish among the most decorated handicapping services in the industry that year. AAA earned three Top 5 placements in three different sports in the same wagering season, including two No. 1’s (NCAAF and NBA) and finished No. 2 in the NHL. The 2016 NFL playoffs saw AAA go 11-3 (79%), while more recent achievements include going 20-6 (77%) in the 2019 NCAA Tournament and then delivering an additional $11,236 profit in the 2019-20 season.

Clients can expect A LOT of plays on a daily/weekly/monthly basis from AAA, as it plays almost every single "weeknight" Football game (both the NFL and College), as well as 5 to 7-game football cards on Saturday and Sunday. Clients can also expect large NBA, NHL and College Basketball cards each and every day possible. MLB cards are released very early so that one always has time to shop around for the best lines. AAA didn't put together its amazing life-time records by playing passively!

AAA does not subscribe to any single handicapping methodology. Instead AAA believes that being flexible is the best way to secure profits over the long term. Sometimes, AAA keeps it simple, while other times it will take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. AAA especially likes to take advantage of classic "spot bets" (i.e., the "look-ahead" spot, the "letdown" spot, and the "trap" game).

All of that being said, AAA primarily considers itself a “stat based” handicapping service. One set of criteria which AAA always uses when making his decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

AAA's biggest plays receive its 10* ranking. Nearly all of its point spread plays fall in the 8* to 10* range, as AAA has confidence in all of its selections and doesn't believe in significant variances in wager sizes. Money line selections will sometimes be rated lower than an 8* if it's a big favorite.

AAA cordially invites everyone to hop on board as it looks forward to another winning year.

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NBA / NHL Finals Previews

Friday, May 30, 2025

NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder VS (Indiana Pacers OR New York Knicks) On Wednesday, the Oklahoma City Thunder clinched it's way into the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder are one of the youngest teams in the field and have taken leaps every single season since the rebuild. Finally, they have a chance to play for what every teams hopes to be playing for at the end of the season. This season, the Thunder only lost 14 games in the regular season. That gave OKC the number one seed in the Western Conference. Why were the Thunder able to win so many games? They had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who actually won the MVP award just a couple of weeks ago now. He had a terrific season and won the award over guys like Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Oklahoma City also has a really good supporting cast with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein. With more than just that, it will definitely be the favorite against whichever team advances between Indiana and New York. In the series of Indiana and New York, the series shifts back to Indiana were the Pacers have been really good. Tyrese Haliburton is the main guy for the Pacers all season long. Not only does Haliburton have a great team around him, but he also is one of the top playmakers in the NBA who averaged 9.2 assists a game in the regular season. With him, they have Siakam, Turner and Nemhard. This is a really deep team that could give the Thunder some problems if it ends up coming out on top of this series with the Knicks. Indiana can score a lot and will be able to physically contend with OKC, like it did against the Cavaliers in the second round. For New York, it's the opposite of those teams. Relying on it's main guys to do the bulk of the damage, the Knicks are right back in this series after they won Game Five at home. It's going to be hard on Saturday night in Indiana. But, they do have the CPOY award winner this season along with a really strong starting lineup. The only question that everyone seems to be talking about is their depth -- could be a problem as the season gets longer and longer. We think that the Oklahoma City Thunder will win the Larry O'Brien Trophy. NHL: Edmonton Oilers VS Florida Panthers Well fans, this is what it's come down to. The rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers. Last year, Florida took a 3-0 series lead against Edmonton in the finals and barely won in seven games. If we see seven games again this year, it's hard to think that Connor McDavid is going to fall short again. Since Stuart Skinner got benched for Calvin Pickard, something has turned in the Oilers locker room, especially the goaltending. Pickard came in and won all six games. Then, he got hurt and Skinner was put right back in. All he's done is win since that's happened and it may have saved him a job in the NHL for future seasons. Edmonton plays some of the best hockey possible with a terrifically large amount of skill in the dressing room. Corey Perry has sort of taken on a Zack Hyman role from last season -- has been able to score seven goals in the playoffs so far, mostly all from in front of the net. Edmonton does a really good job at getting players open in that area right in front of the goalie. For Florida, it's probably been the team that's looked the best in the playoffs so far. Even though in took seven games for the Panthers to put away the Toronto Maple Leafs, round one and the Eastern Conference Finals sure went by fast. Florida won both of those series' in five games and now has a chance to go back-to-back. There are a couple of pieces missing from last years team, but the majority of the core is back. They also added some really good players including Brad Marchand. Marchand brings a whole different style of play into this team and his chippiness helps out Florida a lot in these important games. It's probably going to be another really fun series in the Stanley Cup Finals this year and we definitely don't see either team winning three games in a row, especially twice in the same series. We think that the Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup Trophy.

MLB Notes and News -- Through May

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Best Teams Hit Mid-Season Stride -- Los Angeles Dodgers (34-22) ~ As everyone expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the top teams in baseball again this season after winning the World Series in 2024 (last season.) The Dodgers improved their pitching group and have a really good lineup for the second year in a row. Los Angeles is on top of the NL West a third into this year. Like we said last month, 'they are the favorites to win the World Series this year and we can see exactly why.' New York Yankees (35-20) ~ With an even better record than the Dodgers, New York is also one of the favorites to win the World Series this season. That's also expected as the Yankees were the team that played against Los Angeles in last year's final. New York has really good hitting and Aaron Judge is on pace for another record breaking season. Max Fried has also been the best free agent signing of any team so far. Detroit Tigers (37-20) ~ Surprising to some. Unsurprising to others. The Tigers actually have the best record in the whole MLB right now. They are scoring a lot of runs each game -- definitely helping the young star studded pitching group that Detroit has. Tarik Skubal is the front runner for AL Cy Young right now and if the Tigers can keep pitching strong behind him, they will be back into the playoffs and as one of the top seeds. Philadelphia Phillies (36-20) ~ In the loaded NL East Division, Philadelphia is the top team in the group right now. Trae Turner is hitting the ball terrifically this year and Kyle Schwarber is lighting it up again with the home runs. What's different though? Schwarber isn't getting out as often which will help Philadelphia out a lot in the long run. Hitting well has been the name of the game and what has worked for the Phillies this year. Top Pitchers So Far -- Max Fried ~ 7-0 going into Friday's start, Max Fried has the best statistics of any pitcher in the Major League's right now. There hasn't been any better time than now to play on him to win the Cy Young award in the American League, even with Skubal close behind. He has better stats and is on probably a more talented team than Skubal -- that could lead to more wins and better final statistics. Tarik Skubal ~ Like we talked about when talking about Max Fried, Skubal is the favorite to win the top pitcher in the American League award. He's been really good and even better than really good in his last start when he pitched nine innings and allowed zero runs. He struck out 13 batters in that game and had only 94 pitches thrown at the end of the game. That's unheard of. Kodai Senga ~ Senga has been terrific this season. He's the current leader in earned run average in the National League and has been pitching at the top of his game all season long. The Mets top pitching option doesn't strike out batters at the rate that he would want to be doing so at. He does the little things and does what it takes to get batters out though. Yoshinobu Yamamoto ~ Even though Yamamoto is on the maybe the top team in baseball and has an earned run average of less than 2.0, he's still not the favorite to win the Cy Young award in the National League. But, if things go the way that they have, Yamamoto will probably win that award at the end of the season. It just depends if Skenes stays in Pittsburgh or not. Top Hitters So Far -- Aaron Judge ~ The home runs aren't as 'good' as Judge would like because he wants to be first in that too. But, Judge is having an all-time season right now. He's the league leader in average leading by a lot compared to the next best. He also leads the league in hits and is second in runs scored. He is almost guaranteed to win the MVP in the American League. Shohei Ohtani ~ Ohtani missed some games because of the birth of his new-born. He also hasn't been getting too much help from the bottom of the order with getting runners on base that would lead to more runs batted in. But, Ohtani is the league leader in home runs right now and he continues to prove how good he is game after game. He's the favorite to win the MVP in the National League. Freddie Freeman ~ Second to just Aaron Judge in the batting average category this season, Freddie Freeman is having himself another terrific year. He's not hitting the ball with too much power. But, that doesn't matter when he can get on base as well as anyone in the history of the game of baseball. He can display power too in big spots if called upon. James Wood ~ A little bit of a deeper pull here. But, James Wood is having a really good season for the Washington Nationals. He has 15 hit home runs this season and has a really solid batting average too. Wood has definitely been the best hitter on his team and is still just 22 years old. There's a lot of time to improve on his really good play.

MLB News and Notes -- Good and Bad to Start 2025

Tuesday, Apr 29, 2025

The 'Good' Los Angeles Dodgers (20-10) - Last year's World Series Champions have looked really good again so far. Los Angeles has the three Japanese superstars -- Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki. Sasaki is still getting settled into his new team and new country and hasn't even picked up his first win yet. But, the Dodgers keep winning and are the top team in the NL West right now. They are the favorites to win the World Series this year and we can see exactly why. New York Mets (21-9) - Juan Soto has not been up to his standards after making the move from the Yankees to the Mets. He hasn't even hit a home-run at Citi Field yet this season. But, New York is still winning even with the tough start for one of the top baseball players in the MLB. The Mets are the top team in the loaded NL East division and they lead by 4.5 games. It will probably even out as the season moves along but the Mets have the best record in the MLB so far and will be dangerous once Soto catches fire.Detroit Tigers (18-12) - The Tigers made the playoffs last season and beat the Astros in the Wildcard Series. They don't have the best team overall on paper. But, the youth and style of play that they play is hard for teams to go up against. They also have maybe the top pitcher in the American League -- Tarik Skubal has a 2.34 ERA this year and has been the pinnacle of pitching over the past year. We think that the Tigers have a good shot at being even better than last season with the American League having slightly less competition at the top than the National League has (our opinion.)San Francisco Giants (19-11) - Surprising to some, but expected for Bob Melvin and the Giants. They have began this season really well and it's because of their defense and the long ball. San Francisco has the best fielding percentage in the MLB right now and doesn't allow teams to get any baserunners that they don't earn. The Giants also have 23 home runs in 30 games -- top five out of all the teams right now. We think that the NL West will catch up to the Giants with San Diego/Arizona below them ever so slightly. But, it's been a rock solid start for SF. The 'Okay' Philadelphia Phillies (16-13) - Streaks of winning and losing have been what has happened to the Phillies this season. They went on a five games losing streak during the middle of April and have now won three games in a row to have them where they are right now. Aaron Nola has been worse than expected but there's still a lot of year left for him to get back to where he has been over the last few years. Philadelphia also has a really good offense with a top on base percentage in the MLB. We know that they are better than 16-13 and we think that they will improve to 'The Good' at the end of this season. Boston Red Sox (17-14) - The Red Sox are on a winning streak of three games right now and are improving by the day. Boston went out and got Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet in the offseason. Those two guys help make the Red Sox a really good team. Boston is top five in hits, on base percantage, ops, slugging and stolen bases a fifth intho the season. We think that Boston will challenge New York at the end of the season for the best team in the American League East Division. Kansas City Royals (15-15) - Kansas City made the playoffs last year and beat the Orioles in the Wildcard Series. The Royals have won half of their games this season. They got their top pitcher Cole Ragans on a great deal for the team in the offseason (not the best for Ragans) and will be a team that people should look out for when the Royals' farm system brings up players to the Major Leagues. Bobby Witt Jr is a bright superstar and will provide the Royals with his great player for a long time. The 'Poor' Atlanta Braves (14-15) - Slowly improving after a really bad start, the Braves will soon be in 'The Okay' group of these rankings. Atlanta still doesn't have the record that it would want though this season. The Braves got back Spencer Strider and will get back Ronald Acuna Jr really soon. Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson have not been where they want to be in terms of hitting. But, the Braves shouldn't have any trouble in overcoming the bad start and making the playoffs again this year with how many good players they have on their team. Baltimore Orioles (11-18) - After the Orioles lost Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander in the offseason, they didn't replace either of them with anyone of the same caliber. Baltimore does not have as good of a team as it did last year and it lost in the Wildcard Series last year to the Kansas City Royals. Grayson Rodriguez was just transferred to the 60-Day IL and hasn't pitched for the Orioles this season. They are really lacking with their pitching this year with Kyle Gibson making his first start and allowing four home runs in the first inning. Charlie Morton has also been really bad this year. St. Louis Cardinals (12-17) - St. Louis wasn't supposed to be great. But, the Cardinals don't have as bad as a team as they continue to play like. St. Louis did give up Paul Goldschmidt in the offseason -- who has been a terrific addition to the Yankees. St. Louis still has really good power hitting and should have decent pitching too in one of the worst Divisions in the MLB. The Cubs are a lot better this season so the Cardinals have to really pick it up if they want to make the playoffs this season. We don't think that they get there.

NFL Draft Odds

Sunday, Mar 30, 2025

The chalk says quarterback Cameron Ward to the Tennessee Titans, edge rusher Abdul Carter to the Cleveland Browns and wideout / defensive back Travis Hunter to the New York Giants. But after Ward, who really knows what is going on in the minds of NFL team coaches and general managers? Along with having one of the top five picks in the draft comes the danger of losing your job if you make the wrong move.Here’s what the odds say for some of the key players at the top end of the draft. What teams need what, who might pick whom, and why?CAMERON WARD – There seems little likelihood that the Titans will throw a curveball here. They need a quarterback, Ward is simply the best quarterback on the board. That’s why he’s the consensus (-2000) pick. Tennessee is not even bothering to play the Best Player Available tune, and there’s less than zero chance that they’ll move the pick. Add in the fact that Ward has said that he actually wants to play for the Titans, and this is as close to a lock as you’re going to see on April 24.ABDUL CARTER – This is where things could get sticky. Carter is a (-200) favorite to hear his name called next, but these are Cleveland Browns we’re dealing with, and nothing is ever certain. Picking Carter here to pair with Myles Garrett and creating a dominant D-line is enticing, but that means they’ll have to stick it out with Deshaun Watson, who will be dragging a $230 million guaranteed deal into the season along with two Achilles surgeries. Do the Browns want to cut bait and see what Shedeur Sanders (+340 to be the pick here) can do? Watson supposedly is making good progress on his latest heel surgery. What to do? What to do?TRAVIS HUNTER – Signing veterans Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson is a pretty clear sign that the New York Giants will be content with treading water while they stockpile talent, and all signs point to Travis Hunter (-165) at No. 3. Either that, or the Giants are convinced that the Browns will bite on Sanders and want to have their two QBs ready to go rather than pick someone off the waiver wire. Why else would they sign TWO quarterbacks who have maxed out and probably don’t have enough juice to get the NYG to the playoffs? If they take Sanders, Winston should pack his suitcase.PATRIOTS and JAGUARS ***New England picks at No. 4, and they have their QB for present and future in Drake Maye. They need help everywhere after back-to-back 4-13 seasons, so Hunter and his two-position portfolio would seem to be a perfect fit. But the odds (+125) say the first pick will be a left tackle to shore up one of the worst offensive lines in team history. Armand Membou could be entrusted to protect Maye’s backside as talk of taking Will Campbell appears to have cooled down a tad.***Jaguar fans – those who are still on board, anyway – would love to see both QBs, Carter and either Campbell or Membou taken ahead of them, opening the door for J-Ville to cash in with Hunter. That is unlikely to happen, but they can still dream. The most likely scenario is that the Jags sign, then accept their consolation prize – defensive tackle Mason Graham. Not the worst thing in the world for Jacksonville, but Hunter would fit in better playing full-time on one side of the ball and part-time on the other.

Best NBA Finals Match-Ups

Monday, Mar 24, 2025

I propose five hypothetical Finals matchups that the League would love to see:1. BOSTON vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS – Duh. Outside of the other playoff teams and their fan bases, who WOULDN’T want to see these two go at it for the umpteenth time? Adam Silver and the NBA marketing department would have the easiest sale of their lives with this one. LeBron James gets another crack at Boston and LA tries to even up the championships won at 18 each. The Celtics, heavy favorites to win the East and also a slighter favorite to win their second straight title, would like nothing better than to take out LBJ and once again expose Luka Doncic. For this matchup to happen, both teams will have to (barring huge upsets) take out conference champs (Cleveland and Oklahoma City) who have dominated the regular season. Odds to win conference – Lakers +700, Celtics -1202. CLEVELAND vs. OKLAHOMA CITY – Speaking of the Cavs and Thunder, why in the world SHOULDN’T they be rewarded with an A on their report cards after doing their homework for the last six months? Cleveland had the East clinched by January, and OKC doing pretty much the same thing in the West. The teams are still battling for best record overall and with that home-court advantage in a Finals series. That could prove significant because in the only sampling this year, each team won pretty easily on its home court. Oddly, the Cavs’ 7-point win came just 8 days before the Thunder won by 20 in Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning the MVP Award would add some shine to the first real Finals between two small-market teams since 2007 when San Antonio swept the Cavs. Odds to win conference – Thunder -135, Cavaliers +2103. NEW YORK vs. LOS ANGELES LAKERS – Ok, the Knicks do have to do some heavy lifting to get this far, but a 7-game East Coast-West Coast Finals between these teams would definitely rock the casbah, and then some. Lots of demons could be exorcised if this one happens. Doncic could show the world that he can indeed drag himself through an entire post-season without wilting. NY’s Karl-Anthony Towns could shake his rep as a soft player, and Knicks coach Tom Thibodeu could say “stuff it” to everyone who says he plays his rotation players too many minutes. Imagine Bronny getting a ring? Instagram would blow up in minutes. Odds to win conference – Lakers +700, Knicks +7504. GOLDEN STATE vs. BOSTON – Steph Curry’s tailbone better be OK, or this one has zero chance of happening. Imagine the barrage of 3s if the teams meet in a re-match of the 2022 Finals when the Warriors picked themselves off the mat, battled back from a 2-1 deficit and stopped the Celtics in their tracks. Since Game 6 of that series, the Celtics have taken well north of 10,000 3-pointers, and a new battle against the Warriors and Curry would no doubt produce hundreds more. That could open things up for mid-range expert Jimmy Butler, whose presence would no doubt cause Miami’s Pat Riley to have stomach pains. Odds to win conference – Warriors +750, Celtics -1205. DETROIT vs. HOUSTON – A little off the wall, to be sure, but the re-birth of two downtrodden franchises getting to the Finals would send a message to all the tanking teams that you can actually win by building through the draft and making solid decisions. Last season the Pistons won only 14 games, the worst in the NBA, and the year before that the Rockets had 22 victories, tied for second-worst (yes, Detroit was the worst that year, too). Yet here they are, knocking on the door. Long odds of either getting to the Finals, but stranger things have happened. Odds to win conference – Rockets +4000, Pistons +10000

Gambling News And Notes

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

Can’t go even a full month without a way-too-early, pre-free agency, pre-trades, pre-draft look at the 2025 season?Here are three teams that might be worth a futures ticket:1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – The Chiefs have proven that winning two in a row is hardly impossible, so why not take an early flyer on the Birds to go back to back? And when you look at the way they’re built, two Super Bowl rings seem very gettable. Philly has the all the weapons it needs on offense, a massive physical offensive line, key people under contract and nary an unhappy player (in public, anyway). They are equally prepared for warm and cold weather games. The Eagles are out of the gate at +700 to win next February’s Super Bowl.2. BALTIMORE RAVENS – Baltimore also is set – for now, anyway – at +700. They have a legit year after year MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson, and could be ready to make the jump if the Chiefs fade even a bit and the Bills are unable to get over the hump that always seems to be in their headlights. Baltimore has a decent amount of cap space and could add to an already solid core. Ravens fans are keeping a close eye on veteran left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is a free agent and is key to a lot of what Jackson and Derrick Henry do on offense.3. DETROIT LIONS – At +850, the Lions are obviously in the mix. Question is, is there enough Lysol to erase the stench from that godawful playoff loss to Washington? Getting to the playoffs in Detroit seemed to take a generation, and this defeat – on top of losing the previous year after leading by 17 at halftime – was a stomach punch followed by a kick in the anatomy a little lower. Is Jared Goff the guy they want going forward, or should the Lions focus on improving a defense that gave up 45 to the Commanders? Warriors get new life with ButlerThe Jimmy coming in the door is light years better than the Jimmy who wants out, so the honeymoon period is in full bloom in Golden State. Butler’s presence on the floor is getting Steph Curry more open looks, and the reverse may also be true. Whatever the case, the Warriors won five of their first six with Butler in uniform and for the first time in months the Dubs are actually talking about making a long playoff run. GS opened at +3000 this season, but the latest look has that number trimmed to +1800. The Warriors have more than a decent shot at sneaking into the 6 seed in the Western Conference, which would have been considered a bridge too far after the first two months of the season.Top 3 Cy Young Contenders For This Season -- Each LeagueTarik Skubal - In the American League filled with left-handed gems at the pitcher position, Skubal is the guy that everyones trying to catch. His playoff performance was great and that was just some of his amazing year in 2024. He's at +400 to win Cy Young this year. Garrett Crochet - The Red Sox have made some big moves and getting Crochet was one of them. Crochet is going to be a problem and his odds are at +600 to be the best pitcher in the AL this year. Cole Ragans - A steal for the Royals? Ragans just signed a 3-year 13 million dollar deal which is mind blowing. Even though he's under team control until 2028, Ragans should be getting paid a whole lot more than this and his play might just show that this year. He's at +900. Paul Skenes - Overrated? Not too many people can really say that Skenes wasn't impressive in his first year as a Pirate. But, being the clear favorite at +300 to win the Cy Young in the National League in just his second year might be a bit of a stretch. In a league that's loaded with clear superstars at the pitching position, let's see if Paul Skenes lives up to the hype. Zack Wheeler - Wheeler is maybe the most consistent pitcher in baseball these days and last year might've been his best of the bunch. He's sitting at +750 for Cy Young and this might be a steal. Chris Sale - At +800, age doesn't seem to be bothering the Braves' lefty. Now 35 years young, Sale had a year to remember last season positing a 18-3 record and 2.38 ERA. He's definitely going to be one to watch as he could either be terrific or horrible this year.

NBA News And Notes

Thursday, Feb 20, 2025

Fewer than 30 regular season games remain for every team in the Association. Here’s a look at the way individual awards appear to be shaking down heading into the home stretch:MOST VALUABLE PLAYERShai Gilgeous-Alexander (-500)Nikola Jokic (+350)If not this year for Gilgeous-Alexander, then when? He is the best player on the best team in the best conference, and he can just about do whatever the heck he wants to do on the court. He leads the league in scoring, he’s second in assists, he’s a willing passer and for good measure he blocks shots. And . . . in an era of load management and teams lying about injuries, he has played in all but one of OKC’s 54 games.Then again, the case for Jokic can easily be made. He’s clearly the best-passing big man in league history. He has won the award three times, including last year, and in just about every statistical category he is exceeding what he did in the years when he did win it (2021, 2022 and 2024). In any other year he would be a unanimous winner, but voters might just be tired of him winning and looking for fresh blood. You can imagine OKC without SGA being a contender, but Denver would be in the lottery with Jokic.ROOKIE OF THE YEARStephon Castle (-160)Kel’el Ware (+600)Castle showed his stuff at All-Star weekend by winning the Rising Stars MVP, and barring injury he will make it back-to-back ROTY winners for the Spurs, after Victor Wembanyama took the trophy last season. Castle benefits from the fact that there is no franchise-changing rookie this year. The Heat love what they have in Ware, whose emergence has allowed Bam Adebayo to operate a little further away from the rim. But Miami’s slide (and San Antonio’s rise) should give the award to Castle.DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEARJaren Jackson (-105)Evan Mobley (+130)Before Thursday's announcement, it was hard to see anyone else winning this award this year, and for the foreseeable future. Assuming good health, Wembanyama could win this thing plenty of times before the end of his career. He can do things on the perimeter that smaller players can do, and still protect the rim (four blocks a game). Having said that, he's out for the season and will not be eligible for this years award. Jackson is a solid defender and is the slight favorite now with Mobley on his heels. 6TH MAN OF THE YEARPayton Pritchard (-150)De’Andre Hunter (+280)Wasn’t that long ago that Pritchard was buried on the Celtics’ bench, out of the rotation and asking for a trade. Dealing Marcus Smart opened the door for more run, and now Pritchard is the solid favorite. He can handle the ball, he can shoot the ball and he defends with intensity. And for good measure he may be the best in the league from beyond halfcourt.MOST IMPROVEDNorman Powell (-110)Cade Cunningham (+100)Cunningham’s rise parallels his team. With Cunningham at the controls, the Pistons have been transformed from one of the worst teams in NBA history to a top-6 team in the East. Powell has done what was thought to be impossible – put up decent numbers in a Clippers backcourt that also includes ball-dominant James Harden. It's going to be exciting to see who wins this award. COACH OF THE YEARKenny Atkinson (-600)Ime Udoka (+1200)JB Bickerstaff (+1500)Atkinson is favored here even if the Cavs take their foot off the accelerator down the stretch. Cleveland will be the No. 1 seed in the East playoffs, mainly because Atkinson has made effective use of his standout backcourt and front line. Udoka’s Rockets were struggling (3-7 in their last 10) heading into the All-Star break. In Detroit, Bickerstaff has made the Pistons relevant again after the 2023-24 nightmare.

Buy Low, Sell High In The NBA

Monday, Jan 27, 2025

Three NBA teams to back and three to fade as the season grinds into February: TEAMS TO BACK Miami Heat – One way or another, the Jimmy Butler Dilemma will be solved. The Heat (and really we’re talking President Pat Riley here) will not allow Butler to continue the Play-Sulk-Sit-Suspend business model much longer. And when Butler is no longer in uniform, the remaining players will breathe a sigh of relief and move on. Miami enters the month of February at .500, but would have to be truly dreadful over the next few months to bad enough to enter the lottery. Besides, unlike 9 or 10 teams, they refuse to tank. They’ll at least play hard post-Butler.Orlando Magic – This was supposed to be a breakout year for the young Magic, who last season were only a few good quarters away from finishing in third in the East. Then, injuries. After finishing 12 games over .500 last season, the Magic are now a break-even team. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Sparkplug high-motor Jalen Suggs, who is the key to just about everything Orlando does on offense and defense, has returned to action after missing 10 games with a lower back issue. Franz Wagner is also playing once again. The Magic will move heaven and earth to avoid the Play-In Tournament, and it appears doable.Denver Nuggets – Making up 9 games is the loss column in the Western Conference is obviously a bridge too far, but the Nuggets are now playing like the could make a real run at finishing second in the West, behind the Thunder. The O/U win total for Denver is 51.5, which would require only a 24-13 record the rest of the way. And to motivation, add the fact that Nikola Jokic is in the running for a fourth MVP Award and runningmate Jamal Murray has finally emerged from whatever funk he had been in since last summer’s Olympics, and the immediate future looks good. TEAMS TO FADE New Orleans Pelicans – Any team that loses by 31 points to Charlotte has to think about starting over. The Pelicans’ defense is atrocious (they give up almost 118 a game), Zion Williamson is playing but not in NBA game shape, and there’s snow on Bourbon Street. What else could go wrong? It’s definitely tanking time in the Big Easy, and the thought of Williamson (if he stays) playing alongside Cooper Flagg next season might keep the fan base from a mass exit. Philadelphia 76ers – Can things get any worse in Philly? The team bites, and the only way they can keep their first-round pick next season if they get worse this year (their first-rounder goes to Oklahoma City if it’s not in the top 6). Now losing games is something the Sixers are actually pretty good at (See: Process). But if they lose intentionally to protect the future, the NBA suits will come down hard on them. It’s ok for small market teams to tank, but not descendants of Chamberlain, Erving and Iverson. Who knows what's going to happen with Philly.Washington Wizards – Before the season, bettors could bet over or under on the Wiz winning 22.5 games. They are now on a pace to win all of 11 games, and if things don’t get better they could challenge the record for the worst mark (9-73) in NBA history, set by the 1972-73 Sixers. Teams this bad don’t have to tank. They can play hard and still lose. And lose they will. Washington is the worst defensive team in the league and loses by an average of nearly 15 points a game. They have given absolutely no indication that things will change much over the rest of the season.

Where Is Jimmy Butler Getting Traded?

Sunday, Jan 19, 2025

Jimmy Butler doesn’t ask for much.He would like to play on a winning team. No harm in that. Lots of players share that desire.He would like to play in an offense that showcases his skills, which emphasize mid-range shots and hard-nosed D. That the NBA is moving in the opposite direction is not his fault.He would also like to be able to play when he feels like it. That’s a bit of a problem, especially when one of his other desires is to be the focal point of the offense.AND he wants a lot of money, like about $160 million, for him to do all that in the three years that start AFTER next season. In those three years he will be 37, 38 and 39 years old.All that appears to be a bridge too far for Butler’s current boss, Miami Heat president Pat Riley, which has forced Riley to see if he can find Butler a job with one of the other 29 teams in the NBA. Whether, or even if, Butler is in a uniform next season could be determined by whether or not Riley in willing to accept pennies on the dollar in a deal.All eyes are on the Phoenix Suns. They are listed at +225 (DraftKings as of 1/19) to land Butler. Moving Butler to Arizona, though, would probably require the Heat to take back oft-injured guard Bradley Beal, and Riley appears to have little interest in that. While Butler would love to play for a team and owner that burns money and doesn’t pressure its stars to actually win, it would probably take a multi-team mega-deal including lots of cash and lots of draft to get Butler to the desert.The trade deadline is less than three weeks away, and in the meantime, the Heat have a big problem on their hands. Butler keeps saying that his issues are with the Heat management and not the players, but it appears that his half-court style of play is not what Miami has in mind. The league has gone 3-point bonkers, and Butler is digging his heels and refusing to get on board that train. This season he takes about three 3s every two games.Miami could tolerate that except for one thing – the Heat appear to not be any better with him than without him. Sans Butler they are pretty much a mediocre team that has the talent to get to the Play-In Tournament but barring a 2023 miracle run, that’s the ceiling. WITH him, and it’s pretty much the same thing. Riley is wondering why he should pay Butler $50 million to $60 million a year only to jog in place.The Heat have already suspended Butler (seven games) for showing a bad attitude, and there are no signs that that attitude will be adjusted any time soon. In fact, a recent meeting of the minds involving Riley, ownership Butler ended in just about the same way it started.Butler has now returned though. It's now -130 favorite that his next game after the trade deadline will be ... right here in Miami. If Phoenix doesn’t work out and Butler actually does move, is any other out there willing to take the bad with the good and hope that they get Playoff Jimmy and not the angry, team-destroying Jimmy that caused Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia to find him other digs?Memphis (+1000) How long could Butler and Ja Morant co-exist without one of them grabbing a flame-thrower?Golden State (+1500) Could Jimmy be just what they need in the Bay Area? New Orleans (+1800) They still don’t know what they have in Zion Williamson.Houston (+1800) Ime Udoka is a non-nonsense coach who has the Rockets on the rise. Butler would add . . . nonsense.Last season, when the Heat were eliminated in the Eastern Conference playoffs, Jimmy Butler was sitting on the bench. From that view he came to the conclusion that had he played, Miami would have beaten the eventual champion Celtics. Riley, no doubt concerned about how the Heat would fare in another series in which Butler might be on the court, told JB to “Keep your mouth shut.”That apparently is not an option. So here we are, with the clock ticking.

Gambling News And Notes

Tuesday, Dec 24, 2024

Long rebuilds haven’t worked. Quick fixes haven’t worked. What do the New York Jets do now? The Aaron Rodgers Era, short as it was, is in shambles. Now the Jets once again will be starting from scratch after they go through the motions in the final two weeks of the season and carry into an uncertain off-season the stigma of having the longest playoff drought of any team in a major professional sport. It’s been 14 years since the Mark Sanchez Jets made their improbably run to the AFC Championship Game. Owner Woody Johnson will be hiring a new coach and general manager sometime in the next month or so. What about Rodgers? Will they look – yet again – for a new quarterback or stick with the league’s oldest player for another season? Jets fans may be conflicted on whether they want Rodgers back or not, but it’s unlikely that any new coach/GM tandem would want to have to deal with Rodgers’s mercurial ways in their first year on the job when he would have at most only one year left anyway. And Rodgers has never been the kind of guy who would be happy mentoring his replacement.MUSK SPEAKER? REALLY? Speaking of weird, more than a few bettors have thrown some cash down on Trump buddy Elon Musk being the new Speaker of the House. Most of the action came down when the current speaker, Mike Johnson, had trouble putting a budget deal together. Now that a temporary agreement is in place, punters will no doubt cool a bit on Johnson getting the heave-ho and Musk moving in.CAVALIERS LOOK LIKE BEST BET The closest thing to a sure thing in the NBA this season? Unsurprisingly, it’s the Cleveland Cavaliers. After 29 games the Cavs were 25-4 SU, 21-8 ATS, 19-10 on the Over, and 16-1 SU at home. Can Cleveland keep it together long-term? We’ll know a lot more about the Cavs in the next few weeks. On Friday they begin a nasty little four-game Western road trip with games at Denver, Golden State, Los Angeles (Lakers,) and Dallas.TRIBAL INTERESTS LIKE BURGUM President-elect Donald Trump has taken a lot of heat from some of his appointments, but one under-the-radar appointee – North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum as Secretary of the Interior – has been getting thumbs up from Indian casino interests. A few years ago Burgum successfully negotiated deals with online operators in his state, and tribal leaders expect more of the same on a national level once he takes over. The Dept. of the Interior plays a vital role in policies relating to Native Americans. CASINOS CONSIDER SMOKING BAN Smoking in casinos has been a contentious issue for decades, with operators doing everything they can to keep both smokers and non-smokers appeased. Most casinos now have advanced ventilation systems as well as non-smoking areas, but the push to ban smoking continues. The spotlight is now on state-run casinos in Missouri and Kansas. Legislators in both states will soon be considering a bill that would rub out smoking inside casinos. If that happens, other states would certainly follow.ODDS LOW ON SOUTH CAROLINA SPORTS BETTING Thirty-nine states now allow gambling on sports in one form or another, but don’t expect South Carolina to become No. 40. There is some talk about legalization in the legislature, but the governor is adamantly opposed to it and it is likely to draw opposition from the state’s colleges – and in South Carolina, college sports is king.

NBA Christmas Day Breakdown

Sunday, Dec 22, 2024

The NBA Cup competition, FWIW, is in the rearview mirror and the Association now moves on to the last meaningful competition until the playoffs start in April. The annual block of games on Christmas marks the unofficial start of the season, when casual fans start to become interested and the country sits around the tree and overeats on hoops.As usual, there are five games on the schedule. Adam Silver was obviously surprised by Cleveland’s white-hot start this year because the Cavs and their NBA-best record will not be playing. Neither will the Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies or Houston Rockets, who own the first-, second- and third-best records in the Western Conference.A look at this year's docket:SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ NEW YORK KNICKS (12pm) Knicks -9.0O/U – 226.5 Victor Wembanyama has the Spurs in the mix for a playoff spot, and he’ll be introduced to much of the country when he goes up against the Knicks. America will be seeing a new-look Knicks team, with Julius Randle gone and big man Karl-Anthony Towns in his place. New York is pretty much in the same spot as it was a year ago, and the goal is to finish as high as it can during the regular season, stay healthy and hopefully avoid Boston until the Eastern Conference finals.MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES @ DALLAS MAVERICKS (2:30pm) Mavericks -3.5O/U – 224.0 Did the Timberwolves panic after getting tossed off the bus by the Mavericks in WC playoff finals last spring? The Towns-to-NY deal that brought Julius Randle on board hasn’t had the desired effect – Minnesota is now just another team in the early going, and how they break a log-jam that includes the Lakers, Nuggets, Suns and Warriors is anyone’s guess. How things go the rest of the year depends on whether or not ISO-centric stars Randle and Anthony Edwards can find a way to co-exist on the court PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ BOSTON CELTICS (5pm) Celtics -9.0O/U – 223.0 Give Adam Silver one wish, and he’d sub Cleveland for Philadelphia. The 76ers just can’t get healthy, and the Big Three (Embiid, George and Maxey) have hardly been on the court together. The result is twice as many losses as wins, and uncomfortable questions about whether they can even make the Play-In Tournament. Boston, meanwhile, is fighting boredom as the Celtics continue to fire up 3-pointer after 3-pointer. If they go in, Boston wins. If they don’t, well Memphis and Chicago proved that the Celtics can be beaten.LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (8pm) Warriors -4.5O/U – 230.0 So the Warriors’ starters (Curry, Green, Looney, Wiggins and new PG Denis Schroder) were a combined minus 173 in a recent loss to Memphis. GS fell behind by 22 in the first before things started getting really bad. Now they get the Lakers, who are actually playing halfway decent. There is probably not enough room for both teams to get into the top 6 and avoid the Play-In, and this game should give us an idea which one has an edge.DENVER NUGGETS at PHOENIX SUNS (10:30pm) Nuggets -1.0O/U - 233.0 Keep in mind that the Nuggets are just a middling team when they’re on the road. Two years ago, when they won the title, they actually were below .500 away from Denver during the regular season. They’re 7-7 on the road this year. There won’t be much left on Denver in Jokic gets hurt. Meanwhile, rumors are flying that the Suns would consider breaking up their own Big Three and sending Bradley Beal out of town – possibly to San Antonio.

A Wolf In Sheep's Clothing?!

Friday, Nov 29, 2024

In any NBA season, maybe 10 teams go after it hard and shell out enough capital – in salary and draft choices – to make a deep run and maybe catch enough breaks to get to The Finals.10 to 15 more are hanging around, maybe can figure out enough things to get into the second round of playoffs before water seeks its own level and they go home for the late spring and summer.The rest may or may not be in complete tank mode, but they know that unless personnel changes drastically, they are who they are, and hopefully enough fans will be fooled for the team to turn a profit.Amid that mish-mash, there are opportunities for bettors. Perhaps find teams that don’t have the talent to win a title, but on any given night play hard enough to cover generous numbers. Here are a few:BROOKLYN NETS (9-10 SU, 13-5-1 ATS) – It seems only yesterday that Kyrie Irving was declaring himself the co-coach with Steve Nash after Irving and his BFF Kevin Durant had fired Kenny Atkinson. Irving, KD and James Harden were the new Big Three, and ready to take over the NBA. Not quite. Things quickly imploded, Harden begged out, and the Nets decided to start over. Good move. Although under .500 heading toward December, the re-tooled starting lineup including Dennis Schroeder produced back-to-back-back road wins at Sacramento, Golden State and Phoenix. The win over the Warriors came after Brooklyn – which entered the game as a 13.5-point underdog -- had fallen behind by 18 and won by outscoring Golden State 70-53 in the second half when it would have been easy to cash it in and blamed tired legs.TORONTO RAPTORS (5-14 SU, 13-6 ATS) – When you lose your opener, at home, by 30 points as the Raptors did, you have a pretty good idea of which direction your team is headed. There are no illusions in Toronto, where the Raptors are still existing on the goodwill generated by their only title in 2019, made possible by renting Kawhi Leonard. The current group still plays hard, even if contending is a long way off. Half of their losses have been by six points or fewer, and even playing short-handed they were one decent two-minute overtime stretch away from beating the defending champion Celtics in Boston. The business model of late has been to deal away talent (VanVleet, Lowry, Siakam) before they age out and/or demand too much money. No one seems certain if that will continue if no real progress is made.PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (7-12 SU, 11-7-1) – Yeah, the sample size is not great, but the Blazers appear to be better than last year. They seem to be somewhat of an afterthought since trading away Damian Lillard (and then Jrue Holiday, who came over – briefly – in the Lillard deal). But there are small signs that Portland might be climbing out of a steep hole. They own back-to-back wins over Minnesota (no small feat), and they have shown that they will play hard and compete on the road, something not all sub .500 teams are willing to do. Yes, the team is young, and the learning curve is still substantial. But, Scott Henderson is showing signs that he is figuring things out, and Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingan have been impressive. They also are hoping center Robert Williams can stay healthy for a change. The Blazers are probably too good to have any more than a puncher’s chance at winning the lottery and getting Cooper Flagg, but the arrow is finally pointing upwards again for a change.

The Cavaliers Go Down!

Thursday, Nov 21, 2024

Ok, so the NBA’s first REALLY BIG GAME of the 2024-25 regular season is in the books, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are no longer strutting around with a perfect record. The defending champion Celtics saw to that, winning by one 3-point shot (120-117) on the ugly NBA Cup-demanded TD Garden court. What does this mean, going forward? 1. THE CAVS ARE LEGIT On a night when the Celtics rained 3 after 3 on their heads, the Cavaliers somehow kept it together enough to actually have a chance to win late. Constant penetration and aggressive defense in the second half righted the ship after a disastrous two-plus quarters when it looked like they were going to be chased halfway back to Cleveland. Donovan Mitchell, injured and unavailable when Boston ended Cleveland’s season in the Eastern Conference playoff semifinals last spring, was dominant on Tuesday night. His 35 points couldn’t quite compensate for an historic stinkeroo night from Darius Garland, was a horrific 3 for 21 (0 for 6 from deep). Had Garland been merely bad, Cleveland might have won easily. 2. SPEAKING OF ALL THOSE 3s . . . They don’t always fall for the Celtics. When they don’t, teams like the Hawks can come in and steal one. The awful Raptors can take Boston to overtime. But when they drop, like they did against Cleveland (22 of 41, 54 percent), what can be done? Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown attack the rim as well as anyone this side of an in-his-prime LeBron, getting teams in rotation and creating open looks from deep. Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford all are more than competent from distance. And this is being done without Kritaps Porzingis, who is expected back before Christmas (could be even earlier) and draws defenses out even further. Brings to mind the responses from former Celtics Antoine Walker when asked why he took so many 3. Said Toine: “Because they don’t have 4s.” 3. WHAT DO GAMES IN NOVEMBER MEAN? Cleveland ripped off 15 in a row to start the season, replacing (at least for now) the Knicks as the team that might be able to challenge Boston in a weakened Eastern Conference where expected challengers Philadelphia and Milwaukee are a combined 13 games under .500. Lost in parade confetti is the fact that Cleveland has done this without yet having two days in a row off since the start of the season. The schedule will even out, affording coach Kenny Atkinson some valuable practice time. Meanwhile, prior to outlasting the Cavaliers, the Celtics appeared disinterested. Golden State had come in to the Garden and spanked the Celts, they somehow managed to lose at home to Atlanta (without Trae Young), and got it together just in time to fend off lottery-bound Toronto. How do they find motivation when they don’t face teams like Cleveland? Not easy. 4. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? While the Celtics search for reasons not to fall asleep, a healthy Cavaliers squad should have no problem continuing as one of the league’s elite. Mitchell is in attack mode 24/7/365, Garland will be doing everything he can to show that his terrible game in Boston was a one-off, and the league still hasn’t figured out a way to handle Cleveland’s double-big front-court of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. The Cavs will be fine. 5. WHAT DO THE ODDS SAY? Bsoton’s recent slip-ups have done nothing to dislodge the Celtics as the heavy favorite to raise the trophy next June. The Celtics opened at +300 and sit right now at +275. Steep number for a team trying to repeat in a league which has had a different champion in each of the last six years. Cleveland’s strong start, however, has moved its own number considerably. The Cavs opened at +3500, and that has been cut almost in half, to +1300. That's still some pretty good value!

News And Notes From A Betting Perspective

Tuesday, Oct 29, 2024

In the NFL .. Did Jayden Daniels win the Rookie of the Year Award with one pass this past Sunday?Daniels’s game-winning heave on the last play not only jolted the odds and made him the -400 favorite in the ROY category, it moved the surprising Commanders into first place in the NFC East at 6-2 and shortened the team’s Super Bowl odds. Lots of cash changed hands when Daniels’s pass from the other side of the 50 was tipped and landed in the hands of Noah Brown in the end zone, enabling Washington to win 18-15 and cover the spread after entering the game a slight -1.5 favorite.But Daniels probably would not have been able to even reach the end zone on the last play if he had not completed a 13-yard pass on the previous play (yes, the Bears were in soft coverage, but still). Receiver Terry McLaurin got out of bounds with just two seconds left, allowing Daniels and the Commanders close enough for one final, successful, shot.Besides being the ROY front-runner, there is even talk about a possible ROY/MVP sweep if the Commanders can somehow keep the train rolling, win the division, and get a high seed in the playoffs. -- In the NBA .. Speaking of winning two awards in the same season, Anthony Davis has to be on the early-season shortlist for both the Defensive Player of the Year AND MVP awards. Through four games Davis was averaging nearly 33 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and shooting 55 percent from the floor. He’s flat-out dominating defensively. Through it all the Lakers were off to a 3-1 start (ok, the schedule hasn’t been that demanding) and the NBA is salivating at TV ratings if LA remains relevant. Just a few games in, the returns are the equivalent of Dixville Notch, but no one is still questioning LeBron bringing on his buddy JJ Redick as HC of the LAL.---In Politics .. The betting markets and mainstream polls continued to tell a different story as the presidential race entered its final week.Former President Donald Trump led in every major betting site, as high as -200 on BetOnline. There was not a lot of variation in Trump’s numbers. Vice President Kamala Harris was at +170 at the same site. Harris, however, had a 4 percentage point edge in the last major mainstream poll (Newsweek), while all the Battleground state polls showed the two neck and neck and within the margin of error.--In the WNBA .. The champion New York Liberty are the favorites to repeat in the WNBA next season, at +175, after defeating the Minnesota Lynx (+350) in the finals. The Las Vegas Aces, who lost to the Liberty in the playoff semifinals, are also at +350 as they face major roster decisions. The Connecticut Sun, who finally have taken a major step forward and now can hang with the top teams in the league, could have real value at +550. Caitlyn Clark’s presence in the WNBA this past season brought a boatload of more betting action in the league.

Celtics Repeat?

Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024

As actor George Peppard used to say at the end of A-Team episodes, “I love it when a plan comes together.”So it was last year for the Boston Celtics, who seemingly could do no wrong on the way to their record 18th championship. Two starters – Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday – fell in their laps in the off-season, the maligned bench was actually pretty good, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown figured out a way to make themselves indefensible, and their quirky coach was somehow able to keep it all together.They laughed at teams that rested in the regular season, slammed the accelerator every night, and won 68 games – 14 more than anyone else in the East. After winning 83 percent of their games between October and mid-April, they did even better in the playoffs, losing only three of 19 games (84 percent). If you put all of their playoff losses into one series, they still would have won the title.With the new season about to start, the question now becomes: Can the Celtics become the first team since the 2018 and 2019 Golden State Warriors to win two titles in a row? Every book in existence seems to think so. Boston is anywhere from +290 to +325 to go back-to-back this year. They’ll try to do it with a deep roster that includes three Olympians (Tatum, Holiday, and Derrick White), and the Finals MVP (Brown). Even the absence of injured Porzingis for at least a few months doesn’t seem to be all that concerning.If not Boston, then who else in the East?New York (around +700 to win title) surprised everyone by snagging Karl-Anthony Towns at the expense of Julius Randle, but they don’t have anywhere near the depth of the Celtics and may get worn down over the 82-game grind.Philadelphia (around +1000 to win title) created a ton of buzz by getting Paul George to switch coasts, but George is already banged up and no one knows if he’ll be ready to go come the spring. Add in the fact that Joel Embiid has flat-out stated that he will never play in back-to-back for the rest of his career, and also that Philly can never seem to beat Boston. Then there’s Milwaukee (around +1400 to win title), a veteran team that had coaching and player assimilation issues early on in 2023-24 and never could quite figure out how Damien Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo should play together.Miami, Cleveland, and Indiana all hope to catch lightning in a bottle, but don’t appear to be much of a threat to make it through four playoff series.Books have Boston winning in the 58/59 range this season, a full 10-game drop-off from last season. They must figure that they might not get off to a fast start with Porzingis sidelined, and maybe that everything can’t possibly go as smoothly as it did a year ago. Perhaps the 3s won’t drop quite as often as they did 12 months ago. And when playoffs come around, there is little chance that they will face four teams as weak as they faced last spring – injury-riddled Miami and Cleveland, not-ready-for-prime time Indiana, and good-but-not-great Dallas.OTOH, Brown, and Tatum should have plenty of motivation after getting snubbed by the Olympics bosses. Xavier Tillman, a mid-season pickup, is a beast who should be adequate at center until Porzingis returns. The bench (Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and veteran Al Horford) can’t wait to rain more back-breaking 3s. Outside of Porzingis, they enter the season healthy.Confidence is overflowing in Boston as the Celtics try to become the first Celtics team to go back-to-back since Bill Russell player-coached them to championships in 1968 and 1969. After last season, everyone believes that they will do it again and reprise the Warriors of a half-decade ago. Can they do it? Sure. Will they do it? There don’t seem to be too many roadblocks to prevent it.

5 NBA Teams Who Will Go Under The Posted Win Total

Monday, Sep 23, 2024

The NBA regular season starts on October 22nd. That's less than a month away! A couple of weeks ago, we looked at five teams which we felt were set to outperform expectations. Now, we will take a look at five NBA teams which may have trouble hitting their projected win total. We're not making wagers on these plays yet, just getting the conversation started. We understand that these are some good teams but these are also some high totals. If you do play on any of them to go under their respective totals, if possible, make sure to shop around for the best lines. These can vary quite a lot from book to book. The lines can also move quickly. The ones we are using were taken from Draft Kings on September 23rd. BOSTON CELTICS (58.5) So much went right for the Celtics last season. Jayson Tatum gave up some scoring and became an undisputed top 8 player in the league. Jaylen Brown showed that he could play despite the expectations that come with being the league’s highest-paid player. Newcomers Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday were perfect fits. Even the maligned bench wasn’t a drain. All good. But the injury-prone Porzingis will be on the bench for several months and is no cinch to STAY healthy. The veteran backcourt of Holiday and Derrick White put some miles on their odometers playing in the Olympics (Tatum, not so much). To get to 59 wins the Celtics will need to keep Al Horford healthy and monitor his minutes, plus get improvement from one of their other emerging bigs – Neemius Queta or Xavier Tillman. Toss in improvement from Eastern rivals, and it looks like an under play is warranted.DENVER NUGGETS (51.5) What you see is what you get from the Nuggets, whose core of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. will basically determine, again, how high they finish this season. The only significant moves the team made in the off-season were allowing Kentavius Caldwell-Pope to walk (to Orlando) and bringing on Russell Westbrook, and that means that the Nuggets will remain talented but not deep – and in the uber-talented Western Conference that’s a huge red flag for totals players. It’s not hard to see the Nuggets going into Heat Mode, kissing off the regular season, and resting the Core Four to keep them ready and healthy for the playoffs. Oddsmakers have already baked a six-game slide into the cake, but if Jokic gets dinged or Murray doesn’t emerge from whatever it was that caused him to stink out the joint in the Olympics, the decline could be even greater.PHOENIX SUNS (47.5) OK, an under play could go sideways really fast if Bradley Beal somehow manages to stay healthy and competes in the neighborhood of 65 to 70 games. The Suns would then finally have the Big Three that new ownership had to have – and handsomely paid for. What team wouldn’t want Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant on the court at the same time? Last season, with Beal on the sidelines most of the time, Booker and Durant combined for nearly 55 points a game. The problem was, that head coach Frank Vogel could never quite get the boys to buy in on the defensive end, so he was replaced by former Bucks HC Mike Budenholzer – who was fired in Milwaukee for pretty much the same reason. Durant, Beal, and Booker are a combined 93 years old, and it will be interesting to see where Phoenix is come mid-March and how important it is for the Suns to finish with a top 4 or 5 seed.LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (40.5) Either Kawhi Leonard finally enjoyed good health or the NBA’s decision to make players take the court 65 times out of 82 in order to qualify for post-season awards had a huge effect. At any rate, Leonard played in more games (68, just above the minimum) than in any season since he started to play his way out of San Antonio in 2016-17. Same with James Harden, who suited up 72 times – the most since 2018-19 with Houston. This year? Who knows? But they’ll have to stay on the court as much, or even more, since running-mate Paul George has flown to coop to Philadelphia. The Clippers chose financial flexibility over star power as they move into their new arena in Los Angeles. The ifs and buts are stacked up like cordwood, and a .500 season that would cover the winning title could be quite a reach.MILWAUKEE BUCKS (50.5) They won’t admit it, of course, but if the Bucks could turn back the clock it’s debatable whether they would do the Jrue Holiday-to-Portland-for-Damian Lillard trade all over again. Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo never really got things together, but they’ll have to do it all over again this season. The Bucks are hoping against hope that Doc Rivers can figure things out with a full training camp after a disastrous 17-19 record as Adrian Griffin’s replacement. For the record, under Griffin the Bucks were on a pace to win 57 games; they ended up with 49. So much of this season depends on the health of Khris Middleton, who hasn’t played as many as 70 games in a season since 2018-19. The title window appears to be closing on Milwaukee, with Lillard in his mid-30s, Antetokounmpo hitting the Big 3-0 in a few months, and Middleton 33.

NBA Futures To Consider

Wednesday, Sep 11, 2024

A look at five NBA teams that have a good shot at hitting the Over (posted win totals in parenthesis):PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (21.5) – Books like the Blazers as the worst team in the league in Year 2 post-Lillard, but the roster just seems capable of finishing with close to 28-30 wins rather than the low 20s. Much depends on whether the Blazers can actually convince Deandre Ayton to be the player the Suns were convinced he could never be. If he shows like he’s ready to go full bore, Portland might trade backup Robert Williams. The backcourt Portland envisioned (Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson) never got rolling last season as Simons battled injuries. A motivated Ayton, a healthy backcourt, and a solid season from forward Jeremi Grant would add up to more than 21 wins.DETROIT PISTONS (24.5) – Shame that one of the Association’s flagship franchises has fallen so far, but the madness in Motor City might be coming to an end. No one figures the Pistons to lose 28 straight games again, and things would have to go completely south to end the year 2-15 again. There are lots of changes, primarily at the top where Monty Williams is out as HC and J.B. Bickerstaff is in. Bickerstaff will still have a young core, but the team did bring in some veterans -- notably Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. -- who should help prevent long-losing streaks. The keys to the car still will be in the hands of Cade Cunningham, who signed a max deal off his rookie contract. If he improves, and he should, so will the Pistons.UTAH JAZZ (29.5) – Will the Jazz (31-51) backslide for the second straight season? Not likely, but the best Utah fans can probably hope for is a shot at the Play-In Tournament. Things kind of begin and end with PF Lauri Markkanen, who has signed long-term with the Jazz. The backcourt – Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson – are decent and go off every now and then. Utah also likes its top two draft picks – forward Cody Williams and center and Kyle Filipowski. But whether the Jazz are able to reverse the trend and move forward will depend a lot of improvement from one of two of their three 2023 first-round draft picks – Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, and Brice Sensabaugh.MIAMI HEAT (44.5) – Looks like Pat Riley has had it with Jimmy Butler, who sat out the Celtics playoff series and then said the Heat would have won if he had NOT sat out. If Butler wants to stay in Miami, he has to A. Play, B. Play well and C. Play a lot. No more holding back, if he wants another contract and hang in South Beach beyond next summer. In fact, this might be the end of the relax-in-the-regular-season-and-go-at-it-when-the-playoffs mode in Miami. Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro are all back, and a quick playoff exit (or no playoffs at all) will probably mean the end of the line for those three as a group.PHILADELPHIA 76ers (52.5) – Yes, that number is kind of high. But the talent is firmly in place in Philly, and there doesn’t seem to be a Plan B beyond stockpiling good players and hoping for the best. That might just work, with Joel Embiid joined by Paul George and Tyrese Maxey in what looks like a very solid Big Three. Much of the early part of the season will be devoted to Nick Nurse figuring out how to blend in a group of four veteran additions – Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, and Andre Drummond. Drummond’s presence will be of particular importance if Embiid shows up overweight with the intention of playing himself into shape.

The Cowboys Are Primed In 2024 (Right?!)

Thursday, Aug 29, 2024

These two records stand in stark contrast and pretty much tell the story of the Super Bowl-starved Dallas Cowboys:36-15 – Dallas’s record in the regular season over the last three seasons.1-3 – Dallas’s playoff record over the last three seasons.Put differently, of all the teams that have won Super Bowls, only three – the New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, and Miami Dolphins – have gone longer without winning than the Cowboys have since their last title in 1995. The pressure is on this season. Then again, when is the pressure NOT on in Dallas?Oddsmakers figure that the Cowboys have more than a puncher’s chance at ending their three-decades-long drought and winning their sixth SB. They’re at around +1800 in most books, behind nine other teams. No one has to tell Dallas fans, or owner/GM/showrunner Jerry Jones that it’s been a long drink of water since coach Barry Switzer got the job done in the mid-1990s.Since Switzer, six head coaches have tried to get the Cowboys over a very large hump. Only Dave Campo, in the early 2000s, had a losing season record, but exactly zero have winning playoffs records. Chan Gailey, Bill Parcells, Wade Phillips. Jason Garrett and current on-field boss Mike McCarthy have a combined playoff mark of 4-12. Of those four wins, two belong to Garrett – who needed a full decade to get them.All of which brings up the sensitive topic of whether Jones, at 81 years old, is still the right person to handle things off the field, or is Jones the Owner doing the Cowboys a disservice by continuing to employ Jones the General Manager? Would the Cowboys’ chances of getting back to the Super Bowl be better if Owner Jones took a back seat?Jones the Owner addressed that issue a few days ago and left no doubt where he stood. The F-words said it all: “I have an ordinate amount of confidence that [expletive], if anybody can figure out how to get this [expletive] done, I can figure out how to get it done,” Jones was quoted as saying. “Hell no, there’s nobody that could [expletive] come in here and do all the contracts … and be a GM any better than I can.”Ok then.Like with all 32 teams in the league, whether the Cowboys can climb their way back to the Super Bowl depends on the play of quarterback Dak Prescott, and the news there isn’t good. Jones has tossed cold water on the possibility that Prescott will be signed long-term, and Prescott doesn’t seem bothered by that at all. The franchise QB and Jones the Owner both appear willing to let 2024 play out. If the Boys get to the Super Bowl, Prescott can cash in big-time either in Dallas or elsewhere as a free agent. If Dallas falls short again, Jones the Frustrated GM might be unwilling to go through another contract battle with Prescott and could be ready to cut bait.Dallas does have one ace in the hole as it attempts to at least get back to the playoffs – namely, the NFC East is terrible. The Eagles are solid, but Philadelphia is the only problem for Dallas in the division. The schedule early on is not very taxing, and the Cowboys should at least be in the mix when they meet the Eagles for the first time, at home on Nov. 10. They square off again on Dec. 29 in Philly in what could be the game of the year. Philly is -140 to win the NFC East; the Cowboys are +170.Having Dallas back in the Super Bowl would be electric. And the Cowboys actually winning it might motivate Jones the Owner to bask in glory again and finally find a replacement for Jones the General Manager.Then again, who are we kidding?

Five College Football Darkhorses

Sunday, Aug 18, 2024

Taking a look at five teams that have more than a puncher’s chance to eclipse their Over/Under win total this season:1. UTAH – Last season did not go according to plan for the Utes, who closed at 8-5 after figuring to make a lot of noise in the Pac-12 but wound up without a quarterback and without a lot of wins. They should have both this year as QB Chris Rising, who was last seen throwing for 26 touchdowns and more than 3,000 yards for the 2022 Utes, returns under center. The schedule doesn’t look al that challenging, either. The first three games are against Southern Utah, rebuilding Baylor and Utah State, so the Utes could be 3-0 before the heavy hitting even starts. Fans were also delighted that the Big 12 schedule has them avoiding powerhouses West Virginia, Kansas State and Kansas. Not hard to see Utah end up with 10 or 11 wins and a juicy bowl game.2. COASTAL CAROLINA – Very quietly, the Chanticleers are building a decent program in the shadow of South Carolina’s Gamecocks. Last season they opened with a respectable two-TD loss at UCLA, then mid-season ran off five wins in a row (Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Marshall, Old Dominion and Texas State. CCU finished up with a bowl win over San Jose State – not bad for a school less than a decade into high-level college football. Books see a slight regression this year, setting the O/U at 6.5. Part of that is due to 2023 starting QB Grayson McCall transferring to North Carolina State, but the cupboard isn’t bare because returning backup Ethan Vasko and Michigan State transfer Noah Kim are both more than decent. If the wide receivers can come around, they should score. And the defense isn’t all that bad.3. BOSTON COLLEGE – The number is set at 4.5, and the Eagles appear to have the talent to at minimum get to five. To start with, they have Bill O’Brien at head coach, and he has oodles of coaching experience. He breathed life into the Penn State program post-Sandusky, he was on the sidelines at Alabama and he coached with Bill Belichick. O’Brien has some playmakers, starting with returning QB Thomas Castellanos (13 TDs, 1,113 yards RUSHING). He’ll need to cut down on the INTs. The ball-carriers are experienced, so expect ground-and-pound until the Eagles see if Castellanos still has the yips. All four starters return on the defensive front, so the pass rush (non-existent last season) should be a lot better.4. COLORADO – So easy to relish Deion Sanders taking it on the chin after a 3-0 start, but even in their 1-8 finish, the Buffaloes showed that they can compete against the country’s best. Can Colorado beat the 5.5 number? They have a good shot at it. It all starts with the coach’s kid, QB Shadeur Sanders, who is a legit Heisman candidate and a potential high NFL draft pick next April. Sanders finished last year with a school-record 3,230 yards passing and 27 TDs, and the only thing that might stop him from replicating those numbers is a sketchy offensive line. If the blocking holds up as a refurbished O-L settles in, Colorado could score a lot.5. HAWAII – The Rainbow Warriors haven’t had a winning season since 2020 and two years ago won only three games. But last season they moved the needle to 5-8 under coach Timmy Chang, and things finally appear to be headed in the right direction. Start with a good passing game which can be very good if things click. QB Brayden Schager has a slew of talented wide receivers to throw to, but if the air game stalls, well so will the Rainbow Warriors. They don’t run the ball enough to establish any kid of consistency. The defense has some decent pieces returning, but Hawaii will still give up a lot of yards as it not-so-patiently waits to get its quality O back on the field.

Around The Horn

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

Will the Philadelphia 76ers and their major roster remake finally have the chops to challenge the Boston Celtics and make a serious, deep run in the East next spring?Few teams promise so much and then deliver so little, but the arrival of a mandatory third star and the addition of serious rotation depth just might be the combination that finally turns the tide.This past season another injury to former MVP Joel Embiid buried Philadelphia into the Play-In which led to a first-round grinder of a first-round 6-game series loss to the Knicks, but that’s now officially yesterday’s news to a team that pilfered Paul George from the sleeping LA Clippers in the off-season. Assuming a somewhat healthy Embiid and a still-improving Tyrese Maxey, a Philly with George enables the Sixers to officially join an Eastern Conference Big Four along with Boston, New York and Milwaukee.Boston remains the No. 1 choice of oddsmakers at +310 to win the title, but Philly (+800) and the Knicks (+900) are neck-and-neck, with those numbers reversed in some books.Besides George, the 76ers have recast their bench with the addition of a handful of 30-something veterans – Caleb Martin. Kyle Lowry, Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Eric Gordon. But in the end it will come down to how quickly Embiid, George and Maxey can play together, and whether Embiid is healthy next April, May and (cross your fingers) June.Lucky lottery winnerIt’s not quite the same as winning hundreds of millions on Power Ball, but a Maryland woman was still able to cash $576,900 on a bizarre play. The retired teacher bought 25 tickets with the same 5-digit combination – and hit on it. There were 26 winning tickets, overall (another person also won), so each ticket paid $23,076. The odds of hitting that were about 1 in 500,000, but the payoff was capped at 600,000, which limited the winnings (and also made her strategy of buying multiple tickets foolhardy).Chiefs support sports betting initiativeIt wasn’t all that long ago that pro sports teams were actually spending money on lobbyists to prevent the legalization of sports betting. Now leagues and teams see money to be made from wagering and want as big a piece of the pie as possible. Thus, it was hardly a surprise recently when the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs threw their support behind a movement to add a question on the November ballot that would legalize sports wagering in Missouri. Backers of the initiative seem to have more than enough signatures to get on the ballot, but as with other grass roots referenda, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to state governments. The Cardinals, Blues and Royals also back the move. Sports betting has not yet been approved in 12 states, including Missouri.Caitlin Clark effect on gamblingAdd a dramatic increase in sports betting to Caitlin Clark’s WNBA impact. The amount of wagering on WNBA games and props (many, obviously, involving Clark) has increased three-fold over 2023. BetMGM reported that Clark hadfive times as many prop bets as any other WNBA player. Clark remains a heavy (-1200) favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, although her rival Angel Reese (+650) has closed the gap a bit.Harris making a moveSpeaking of a tightening race, The PredictIt betting site has been turned on its head with the departure of Joe Biden and the arrival of Kamala Harris as Donald Trump’s opponent. The site is constantly changing, but Trump held a dominating lead in the wake of Biden disastrous debate performance, but with Harris in the race and Democrats energized, the numbers are nearly even – reflecting the results of several national polls.Competitive eater passes awayThe bizarre world of competitive eating got attention when longtime hot dog-eating champ Joey Chestnut was banned from Nathan’s annual July 4 competition in an endorsement squabble. Another shoe dropped in mid-July when a competitive eater died while eating during a live podcast. An autopsy on the 24-year-old Chinese woman showed that her stomach was “deformed” and filled with undigested food. Competitive eating is most popular in the United States, Canada and Japan. China has placed some regulations on the activity.

The 2024/25 NBA MVP Landscape

Sunday, Jul 14, 2024

To say that the 2024 playoffs were a disappointment for most of the Association’s legacy players would be an understatement of epic proportions.***LeBron James’s Lakers barely made it into the playoffs proper after winning a play-in, then got crushed (again) by the Nuggets in Round 1.***The Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo managed to win all of two games before falling, also in Round 1, to the Indiana Pacers.***The Los Angeles Clippers’ Big Three (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden) wasn’t nearly enough against the Dallas Mavericks, with Leonard cashing in for the season after two games (both losses).***Kevin Durant couldn’t get it done in Phoenix, his Suns politely bowing out after getting swept by the Minnesota Timberwolves.***Steph Curry? His Golden State Warriors couldn’t even get past the play-in. Jimmy Butler? Banged up and cashed out in Miami.None of the above old-timer superstars made it even as far as Round 2, and collectively they put together a combined playoff record of 6-20.So is it any surprise that only one (Antetokounmpo) of the names above is anywhere near the top of the list of MVP candidates for the upcoming season? Curry is a distant 10th, but even he is a longshot at +5000. And with GS needing a jolt or two just to sniff the post-season, it’s doubtful Curry will get a lot of votes.If none of the above, then who? Let’s round up the usual suspects:NIKOLA JOKIC – He’s won it three times in the last four seasons, so the chalk understandably resides here. He’s +350, and with the injury to first-round pick DaRon Holmes out form the year with an Achilles tear, Jokic will once again log big minutes and big numbers. There is some concern that he might wear down, or that Denver will take the Miami route and sacrifice regular-season wins for playoff freshness.LUKA DONCIC – Every year Doncic is pressured to get into better shape. Maybe this will be the one off-season when he listens, after limping around in the Finals against Boston. Doncic is listed at +370, and might even be a slight favorite if the Mavs hadn’t picked up Klay Thompson, who is sure to eat into Doncic’s scoring numbers.JOEL EMBIID –The Sixers are officially in the Three Stars Club, hoping that Paul George and Tyrese Maxey can take some of the scoring load off Embiid. If fewer minutes can keep Embiid (+600) on the court late in the season, it will be worth it in the W column and maybe end Philly’s run of playoff flops. How it all affects Embiid’s chances of getting in 65 or more games and winning another MVP award is anyone’s guess.SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER – The reality is that Gilgeous-Alexander (also +600) plays half his games in flyover country, and needs to overcome that if he is going to leapfrog past the likes of Jokic, Embiid and Doncic. SGA is the best player on the team that tied (with Denver) for the best record in the Western Conference, so the question is: What more can he do?GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – Two questions: Has it already been four years (2020) since won his MVP? And did the Bucks cost him another shot at one by taking the bait and basically exchanging Jrue Holiday for a tired Damian Lillard? Antetokounmpo’s Bucks seem as tired as they are old. Assuming good health, Antetokounmpo’s numbers will be huge, so there appears to value at +650.

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