Sports Picks For Sale - Kyle Hunter

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39-12 last 51 college hoops plays!
42-17 last 59 plays overall
9-0 CBB ATS plays this season

Biography

An esteemed veteran of the sports betting industry, Kyle Hunter is a frequent guest on radio shows, podcasts and videos. $1,000 per game bettors have made $243,000 following Kyle's plays since 2010. Kyle is the type to grind away and try to help clients in every way he can.

Active since: 2009

Location: Columbus, OH

Kyle Hunter has been handicapping professionally since late 2009. Kyle has a degree in finance and he specialized in statistics. Kyle has the ability to follow important trends and statistics, and discount other trends that aren’t predictive. The data and trends can be your friends and Kyle knows how to use them to spot value.

Kyle started in the finance industry and moved over to the sports betting world. His knowledge of the sports betting market is a major strength. The ability to buy low and sell high on teams can really help turn a profit in the sports betting industry.

One area where Kyle pays close attention is to tendencies of umpires or referees. While some handicappers overlook this important information, Kyle keeps databases and detailed information in this area. Knowing these tendencies can keep you a step ahead of the game! Why not take advantage of every extra edge you can find?

Kyle's plays are rated 3 star - regular play, 4 star - upgraded play, and 5 star - top play. Kyle's "Big Game Hunter" big play selections have been highly sought after for many years. You will receive a lot of totals plays from Kyle since that is a specialty. Being able to stay in front of trends and tempo changes is a valuable skill.

Most important to Kyle is being honest and truthful no matter the results. There is a right way to do business, and that is important to Kyle. There will be no ridiculous sales pitches or pie in the sky promises here. Kyle firmly believes sports betting should be considered a long term investment and not a gamble. Join in with one of the top handicappers in the world and let’s build up that bankroll.

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MLB - Moneyline - Thu, Mar 30

MLB Opening Day BEST Bet *42-17 Last 59 Plays

42-17 last 59 plays overall. This MLB Opening Day BEST Bet is all set to go. Let's start off the season with a big wi...

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Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Angles/Systems

Wednesday, Mar 22, 2023

We’re into the weekend of the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament. The venues have changed, and if you are looking for numbers regarding the venues and totals I recently wrote an article here at the Big Al site which gives detailed information about that. I know many people like to consider systems/angles that have worked in the past for specific rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at a few that have worked well in the past. Keep in mind that these shouldn’t be just blindly bet across the board as much as it should be one factor in your overall handicap of the game.Sweet 16 Angles*Games With a Spread of 7.5 or larger in the Round of the Sweet 16 have gone under the total to the tune of 23-8-2 in the last 33 contests. If they had a closing total of 135 or higher, under is 18-4 in these contests. *Sweet 16: Teams with an ATS win percentage on the year of 50% or lower against a team with an ATS win percentage of 51% or higher are 41-25 ATS in the last 66 contests. If you are fading teams with a cover rate of higher than 60% this angle jumps to 17-4 ATS.Elite 8 Angles*Underdogs receiving 50% of the spread bets in the game or lower have gone 27-13-2 ATS in the Elite 8 round dating back to 2011. The public favorites have done poorly, and the underdogs who are unloved have been covering the number in a big way.*Totals of less than 145 points on the closing number have gone over the total at a clip of 31-18 in the Elite 8 dating back to 2006. Totals of 137.5 or lower have gone 20-11 to the over in the Elite 8.Before you bet on these big games Thursday-Sunday consider these angles as part of your handicap and see if it can help get you an edge. Every little edge you can find is helpful especially when the lines are as sharp as they this time of the season. Best of luck in the weekend ahead!

Sweet 16 Venue Numbers Examined

Monday, Mar 20, 2023

As always, the NCAA Tournament delivered with great drama through the first weekend. We have a #15 seed in Princeton in the Sweet 16. We also have a team from Conference USA (Florida Atlantic) that is about to head to Madison Square Garden for their next game. The Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday evening. The Thursday matchups are fantastic, and the Friday games are solid as well. I wanted to take a look at the venues for the Sweet 16 matchups. Are there any numbers from previous games played here that might help us as we handicap these games?ThursdayT Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada) Postseason games played at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas have gone 23-12-1 to the over in the last 36 games. The average postseason game played here has gone over the total by an average of 5.26 points. That’s a solid margin for a 36 game sample. There has been some talk in the past about the rims at T Mobile being soft. Arkansas/UConn and Gonzaga/UCLA will square off here. These are two must see games. I would argue that this location has the single best games of the week. Madison Square Garden (New York City, New York)Madison Square Garden has been one of the best under venues in the country. The under is 162-123 in the last 285 college basketball games played here. Postseason games at Madison Square Garden with a total of 127.5 or higher are 44-28 to the under. Those games have stayed under the total by an average of 3.55 points per game. In the last 310 college basketball games played at MSG, the 1st half under is a whopping 185-125 (59.7% unders). Florida Atlantic takes on Tennessee in an unexpected matchup at MSG, and the other game pits Michigan State against Kansas State.FridayYum Center (Louisville, Kentucky)The numbers for the Yum Center are a little more tricky to decipher. The under is 171-131 in games played here since 2006, but most of these have been home games for Louisville. That means the data could be more about the Louisville team than the facility itself. In neutral court games played at Yum Center the under is 12-16. That’s a small sample size, and most of those games have finished close to the total. The two matchups here are San Diego State/Alabama and Princeton/Creighton. T Mobile Center (Kansas City, Missouri)Not to be confused with the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, these are the games at T Mobile Center in Kansas City. The under is 29-18 (61.7% unders) in games played at this venue. All the games played here have been neutral site games. For a good while this looked like a wash for over/unders, but the under has hit in 12 of their last 14 games played here. Is it statistical noise or is this an under venue? It’s a bit early to judge this one too much with a fairly small sample. Still, the under has cashed by an average of 2.94 points in this 47 game sample size. It will be Miami/Houston and Xavier/Texas in the two games played here on Friday evening.

College Basketball Totals Overall Season Numbers Examined

Tuesday, Feb 21, 2023

We are just over a week away from the calendar flipping over to March. The smaller conferences begin their conference tournaments next week. The larger conferences have a couple weeks until their conference tournaments get underway. Being a guy who focuses a lot on college basketball totals, I wanted to take a look at the overall season numbers on totals. I’ll also break down the recent totals trends. Season to Date: 2,440 Overs (51.9%) 2,263 Unders (48.1%)Last 30 Days: 759 Overs (55.4%) 611 Unders (44.6%)Last 7 Days: 189 Overs (55.9%) 149 Unders (44.1%) In an average season there have usually been more unders than overs. That hasn’t been the case this season. It was running fairly even until a little over a month ago, when the trend started pushing heavily toward the over cashing. In the last month, there have been 94 games go into overtime, and 89 of those 94 games went over the total. It isn’t surprising that the vast majority of overtime games get over the posted total. The fact that there were 94 games that went into overtime is a little higher than expected.Favorites have covered at a 51.5% clip in the last month. It’s no surprise to see favorites doing well at the same time overs are cashing. Those two bets are more often than not at least somewhat correlated. What should we make of the fact that overs have been cashing at such a high clip recently? There has been a bit of a tempo boost in the country overall. On this same date last year the national average for possessions in a game was 67.3 possessions. Today, it sits at 68.0 possessions. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but it does lead to a bit of a bump in scoring. The bigger reason for totals going over has been an increase in offensive efficiency. Last year, the league average on this date was 1.030 points per possession on offense. What about this year? That number sits at 1.050 points per possession. Offensive rebound percentages have gone from 28.0% on average last year to 29.1% so far this season. Second chance points are crucial and they are too often overlooked by many bettors. Should you just blindly be betting overs from now through the end of the season? I wouldn’t recommend it. The oddsmakers know this information very well, and they know many bettors want to bet on overs instead of unders. There are adjustments going on in the marketplace. I’ve been around long enough to see these types of things swing back and forth. The under will likely show value at some point between now and the end of the season on the whole.

College Basketball Futures- Three Valuable Futures Buys

Monday, Feb 13, 2023

The football season is over, and it is time to focus all of our attention on the hardcourt. March Madness is only a month away. I wanted to take a look at three teams I see some value on as futures wagers right now. Building a futures portfolio in mid-late February can be a good move. In general I like to buy low on teams after a bad loss. Everyone has a bad loss at some point in the season. 1. Baylor Bears (+2,200 to win the NCAA Tournament and +500 to Reach the Final 4) I like the Baylor Bears backcourt a lot. A team with veteran guards who take care of the basketball and pass it well is a tough out in March. Cryer and Flagler both shoot better than 40% from three and are veteran leaders for this team. Baylor is first in the nation in offensive efficiency. I really like the +500 price to reach the Final Four. The Big 12 is absolutely loaded, and to say this Baylor team will be battle tested going into the NCAA Tournament is an understatement. 2. Miami Hurricanes (+8,000 to win the NCAA Tournament) I don’t think the Miami Hurricanes will win the NCAA Tournament, but this is a good price. Miami ranks in the top 20 teams in the country in away from home performance. That is something really important to look for when handicapping teams who have a chance. You don’t want to be backing a team that only plays well at home. Wong is a great leader for this Miami team. We also know Jim Larranaga has a history of making runs in the tournament. That’s a good thing to have on your side as well. If they win a couple games in the tournament at this price you can start hedging and make a good profit even if they don’t win it all. 3. Creighton Blue Jays (+750 to Reach the Final 4) The Creighton Blue Jays were hyped very heavily in the preseason. There wasn’t really value on them for a good while. Then Ryan Kalkbrenner their star big man was out for an extended period. Creighton played poorly without their star, and that made people overlook them. He’s back in the fold and the Blue Jays are playing well now. Creighton’s defense is impressing me this season. The Blue Jays are second best in the nation at defending without fouling. They are 17th best in defensive rebounding percentage. Those are the types of things that can win you close games. The Big East is underrated in general in my opinion, and I think Creighton can make a run in March.

3 NFL Playoff Betting Angles

Thursday, Jan 19, 2023

The NFL playoffs are getting intense now as we try to figure out who will fight for the AFC and NFC Championships next weekend. I wanted to take a look at 3 different angles that I think could be helpful to bettors the rest of the way in the NFL playoffs. Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs- Since 2004 underdogs are hitting at a 55.1% rate in the NFL playoffs. If you narrow it down to underdogs of fewer than ten points the rate becomes 56.8%. That’s a fantastic win rate over a large sample size. These games are often hard fought and tight. The public likes to lay points with the favorites. Frankly, the public hasn’t been very good at betting the NFL playoffs. Be careful with those “easy covers” with the favorites. More often than not the line will move to the favorite this time of the year, so if you are betting the underdog usually waiting until later in the week is a good strategy. Unders Outside the Dome- The under is 80-54 with a total of 41 in an NFL playoff game that is not being played in a dome. This one also dates back to 2004. There can be many reasons for why games outdoors this time of the year are better for under bettors. Last week’s contests were great for over bettors in general, but this under angle has worked well in the long run. You’ll want to check the weather before you place your bets this weekend. Look for wind first since it clearly matters the most when betting a total in football. NFL Dome Overs- The over is 30-17 since 2004 in games played in a dome. This isn’t as big of a sample size since most games are played outdoors, but a lot of these games have easily gone over the total. There aren’t any games played in domes this coming weekend, but in the weeks ahead there will be games played inside. Remember this angle! No one angle should be the sole reason you bet a certain side or total, but these are great to have as part of your handicapping toolbox.

Worst CBB Teams ATS- Any Value Coming?

Thursday, Jan 12, 2023

We’ve reached the middle of January. The college football season is over and college basketball is now center stage for college fans. Of course the NFL playoffs are going to get a lot of attention as well, but through the week a lot of focus will be on college basketball. March Madness is only two months away.Let’s take a look at 5 of the worst teams ATS so far this year. Is there value here? Keep in mind that betting on these worst teams ATS in the middle and late portion of the season has usually been profitable. About the time most bettors give up on a team there can be value. Do any of these teams stand out? Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-14 ATS) Tulsa has a new coach in Eric Konkol. Konkol was previously at Louisiana Tech, and he did a good job there. I’m not ready to call his term a failure this quick. He was put in a tough spot here. Frank Haith did quite a bit of damage to the program in recent years, and this roster isn’t very talented now. They are one of the shortest teams in the country. I don’t want to back them consistently across the board, but I do think there will be some spots especially as home underdogs where backing them could be valuable. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (3-13 ATS) The first year in the Atlantic 10 isn’t going well at all for the Ramblers. This is clearly a step up in competition, and Loyola has the least experience they have had in several years. A 24.6% turnover rate on offense is crushing them on a game to game basis. The point guard play just hasn’t been good enough. Their defense which has usually been very strong is giving up 1.22 points per possession in league play. Kentucky Wildcats (4-11-1 ATS) Kentucky is the first of some big names on this list. I truthfully can’t believe the Wildcats have been this bad. Their last game was a home loss to a weak South Carolina team. John Calipari has a lot of heat on him right now to get this turned around. Jacob Toppin missed that game, and his status should be monitored closely. This team is too talented to be terrible consistently. I will look for spots to back them in the near future. Gonzaga Wildcats (4-11-1 ATS) Yet another basketball power who has been burning money this year. Gonzaga is 14-3 and they are still a good team, but they are clearly down a couple notches. Their offense which has been best in the land in three of the last five years is now 7th in effective field goal percentage offense. The defense is 207th! I still don’t want to lay the big numbers with the current Zags squad. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-14 ATS) Notre Dame makes very little sense. The Fighting Irish beat Michigan State by 18 earlier this year. They have lost to St. Bonaventure, Florida State, and Boston College. Last year the Fighting Irish surprised many people, but they were all the way up at 69th in defensive efficiency. They have slid down to 221st this season. A very tough team to get a read on. I’ll pass here because of the inconsistency issues.

College Basketball Season To Date Overall Trends: An Analysis

Monday, Dec 26, 2022

It’s the day after Christmas. There are no games on the schedule for today, but some college basketball action returns in the next couple days. It’s a good time to take a look back at the first month and a half of the season and see how things have broken. Overall Totals: 1,012 Unders (50.2%) 1,004 Overs (49.8%) The under has edged out the over thus far, but it has been extremely close. There have been quite a few overtime games, and the overtime games have gone 87-19 toward the over (not surprisingly). Home Teams ATS Covers 1,020 (50.8%) Road Teams 987 Covers (49.2%) In recent years the road team has actually done better, but that has flipped so far this season. Things are still even enough here that I wouldn’t want to read a lot into it.Underdogs ATS 1,039 (51.8%) Favorites ATS 968 (48.2%) Underdogs have been the better side to be on so far this season. There have been a lot of big spreads, and the favorites have had trouble covering those big numbers. Let’s take the numbers one step further: Home Underdogs are 275-223 ATS (55.2%) so far this season. The biggest winning strategy so far this season has been backing those home underdogs. I don’t know that it is predictive of what will come the rest of the season.Where From Here? Some Tips On Betting In the Coming WeeksKeep in mind that many leagues will start playing conference games in the next week. There won’t be nearly as many big spreads. The teams will be more familiar with each other. Keep an eye on games with bigger point spreads as possible under plays. Why? There is a far smaller chance of overtime. There is also a smaller chance of a late foul fest. I would also encourage bettors to consider trying to find reasons to back teams who have done poorly against the spread on the season thus far, and fade teams who have done very well against the spread thus far. This is the time of the year where the marketplace can go too far in each direction on many teams.

Bowl Season Handicapping: Three Factors to Consider

Thursday, Dec 08, 2022

College football bowl season lines are already up. If you are a fan of college football, this is a really fun time of the year. How many bowl games are there in all? There are a whopping 43 games. Because this year January 1st is a Sunday, there are no bowl games set on Sunday since that is an NFL day. There will be plenty of games around the holidays though. If you are betting on bowl games, here are three factors to consider when placing your bet. #1- Motivation- In past years motivation was about the only thing you need to know in order to pick winners in bowl games. Things are far more complex in college football now than they were then. Still, motivation is crucial when handicapping bowl contests. Which teams want to be there the most? I’m not going to pretend deciding which team is the most motivated is always an easy thing to do, but it better be something you consider. I like to fade teams who had far higher aspirations and landed in a smaller game. Also, if a team hasn’t been to a bowl game in a long time, they are highly likely to be excited for this opportunity.#2. Opt Outs/Transfers- Here is the part that wasn’t even part of the equation looking back ten years or so. It gradually started happening more, and now it is a massive part of handicapping the game. Why would Tulane be getting hammered against USC? Why would Kansas State be getting hammered by bettors against Alabama? Obviously those bettors are assuming a lot of key players from both USC and Alabama will sit out. This is another reason why I in general am more cautious about releasing plays very early in bowl season. A lot of things can happen between the final game of the regular season and the bowl contest.#3. Location- The location of the bowl game matters for a couple key reasons. First, how far is the team having to travel and will their fans be able to get to the location easily? Second, are they traveling to a location where college players will be excited to go play? This ties back to the first point on motivation. If the game is being played in Hawaii, it is pretty easy to see why anyone would be excited to go there. What if the game is played in the middle of nowhere on the day after Christmas? Then you have to question who actually wants to be there.Good luck on all your plays in bowl season. Keep these three factors in mind!

College Hoops Early Season Surprise Teams & Their Outlooks

Tuesday, Nov 29, 2022

UConn Huskies (7-0-1 ATS So Far) No one has been more impressive to me early in the season than the UConn Huskies. They have blowout wins over Alabama, Oregon, and Iowa State already. Adama Sonogo is one of the best players in the country. Freshman Alex Caraban is a key for this team too. It is going to be a lot of fun when we see this team battle against Creighton in the Big East. I still don’t think the books have caught up on UConn. St. Bonaventure Bonnies (5-1 ATS) How has this team been so good against the spread? They lost nearly everyone. Mark Schmidt is showing what a tremendous coach he is with this really inexperienced bunch. I wouldn’t have expected this team to be so competitive early on. They are coming off a huge win over Notre Dame on a neutral court. Their contest against Iona on a neutral will tell us a lot. Kent State Golden Flashes (6-0 ATS) I’m going under the radar here. Kent State nearly knocked off Houston on the road in their last game. The Golden Flashes defense looks very tough this season. They are testing themselves in a big way in the non-conference. They take on Gonzaga in Spokane on December 5th. I don’t think this team is quite as good as they look at this point. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-0 ATS) Jay Ladner’s crew is playing much better so far this year. Southern Miss is still a team I want to wait and see on though. They haven’t played that tough of a schedule and I want to see how they look with a bigger sample size on the road. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2 ATS) Bob Huggins’ team was about as bad as anyone could have expected last year. Huggins said his team didn’t really buy in last year, and he was very confident they would be better this year. It looks like he was right! I do think last year was the floor for this Mountaineers team, and I would tend to think they’ll continue to have value going forward for a while this year. South Alabama Jaguars (6-0 ATS) Another team that is flying under the radar this year. In the Sun Belt, it is much easier for a team to fly under the radar. South Alabama has been money as an underdog here early in the season against quality teams. They will be in that role their next couple games. After that they will start laying points again. I’m not confident this team will be great when laying a lot of points.

College Football Championship Week: The Games That Matter Most

Monday, Nov 28, 2022

Here we are at Conference Championship Week in college football. The season flew by as it always seems to. Many teams are done for the season, while quite a few others are just waiting to see where they will play in a bowl game.Michigan and Georgia are clearly going to be in the College Football Playoff even if they lose this weekend. That’s not to say they won’t try, but it isn’t a must win spot for them. Many believe TCU would be in even if they lose, but they need to at least be competitive. USC is in a must win spot. Let’s take a brief look at a few of the contests this weekend. Pac 12 Title Game Friday at 8 pm Eastern- Utah vs. USC (USC -3, 67) It isn’t even on Saturday, but this is really the biggest game of the weekend for several teams. USC needs a win here. Some think Ohio State would be in the CFP if USC loses and others think Alabama could even jump into the top four. Utah edged out USC in the first meeting in Salt Lake City 43-42. USC did average 8.1 yards per play in that loss. Utah’s Cam Rising has been good overall, but he has had a few games where he cost his team a win (Florida and Oregon this year specifically). Big 12 Title Game Saturday at 12 pm Eastern- Kansas State vs. TCU (TCU -2.5, 61.5) Remember Kansas State led TCU 28-10 in the second quarter in their regular season meeting at TCU on October 22nd. Adrian Martinez was hurt in that game and then Will Howard came in and dominated for quite a while. Howard then got hurt and Kansas State was forced to play a freshman third stringer for a while. TCU has been fantastic this year, but I think this is a really hard test for them. Kansas State’s Chris Klieman is 44-20 ATS all time and 30-15-1 at Kansas State. SEC Title Game Saturday at 4 pm Eastern- LSU vs. Georgia (Georgia -17.5, 50.5) LSU had a chance to be in the playoff as well, but they blew that chance with their loss to Texas A&M on the road last weekend. Brian Kelly’s team is in an odd spot here. They of course would like to win the SEC, but they have to be highly disappointed given just a week ago they had higher aspirations. Georgia would like to get the #1 seed in the playoffs with a good performance here.Big Ten Title Game Saturday at 8 pm Eastern- Purdue vs. Michigan (Michigan -16, 51.5) Jim Harbaugh and his Michigan Wolverines went to Columbus and impressively handled the Buckeyes in the second half last weekend. The Wolverines have at least a chance of getting the top seed with a big performance here. The Big Ten West was a clustered mess and Purdue ended up being the opponent here. This could definitely be called a let down spot for Michigan given the massive game from a week ago. Purdue isn’t nearly on Michigan’s level though. A very tough game to pick a side in my opinion.

3 Angles to Watch In College Football Late Season

Monday, Oct 31, 2022

3 Angles To Watch Late Season CFB The college football season feels like it just started, but we are technically now into the later part of the regular season. This week the games will be played in November. That means that rivalry games are right around the corner, and it also means you should check the weather before placing your wagers. I have found three late season angles you will want to keep an eye on for the late regular season period in college football. 1. Big Conference Game Favorites Late- The angle here is backing big favorites in a conference game late in the year. The filters in this query are favorites of 21 points or larger in game nine of their season or later. Those big favorites in this spot are 249-199 ATS (55.6% ATS wins) dating back to 2006. The return on investment on this angle is much higher on road teams (14% ROI) as compared to home teams (5.6% ROI). My theory here is some teams that are big dogs this late in the season are ready to be done for the year.2. Late Season Windy Unders- This is a nice totals angle for late regular season games played in windy conditions. In this angle the home team must be playing game number 11 or later of the season. The temperature must be 60 degrees or cooler, and the average wind in the game must be 10 miles per hour or higher. The under is a whopping 204-130 (61.1% Unders) dating all the way back to 2006 in this situation. The weather always matters, but some of these games with cooler temperatures and wind combined with rain or snow late in the season can be great for under bettors. 3. Fade Non Conference Favorites Late- Non-conference favorites late in the season don’t seem to be motivated enough to cover large spreads. From game nine of the regular season on, with a spread of -13 or higher in a non-conference contest, fading that big favorite has been a good move. The non-con favorite is 46% ATS overall since 2006, but when you filter it down by teams receiving 60% or more of the bets (public favorites) the non-conference favorite dips all the way to 42.5% ATS since 2006. Be on the lookout for these spots. I believe these are really dangerous spots for the favorite largely because they usually have big rivalry games right around them on the schedule. This is the type of game that they might look over. Best of luck with your late season college football wagering. I hope these angles are helpful to you along the way!

College Basketball Season Preparation: 3 Ways to Find Early Edges

Saturday, Oct 29, 2022

The college basketball season is rapidly approaching. College basketball can be an extremely overwhelming because there are over 300 teams in Division I. Needless to say, it can be very tough to be an expert on every single team, especially at the beginning of the season. Let’s take a look at three ways I think you can be be prepared and find edges early in the season on the college hardcourt.1. Examine Teams With New Coaches First - Why would you want to spend a bunch of time on teams that are very similar to a year ago? If the public masses know the team easily, you better believe the oddsmakers are going to know that team well also. Look for teams with a new coaching staff. These new coaches are likely to want to do things differently. Will there be a faster or slower tempo? Maybe they will switch from man to zone defense. Major turnover gives you more of a chance to have an edge on the books. 2. Focus Most On Under the Radar Conferences - It’s easiest to find a lot of good information on the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, etc. Why not just learn those teams inside and out? There’s nothing wrong with knowing the major schools inside and out, but focusing on them first is a poor strategy. The oddsmakers know these teams much better too. We are looking to uncover value and early in the season there is absolutely more value in the smaller conferences. Start small and work your way up to bigger conferences.3. Back the Veterans Early - While there are some exceptions to the rule, veteran teams are more often worthy of your backing in the early season. The teams who have had a chance to work together for many years and have the same coaching staff are a couple steps ahead in November and December. I don’t like to back inexperienced teams early in the year, especially when they are on the road. Even the teams who have an ultra high ceiling can look pretty bad in the early going.The large slates of games every day in college hoops can be overwhelming. I recommend working your way into it and being careful with your bankroll. The season is a very long grind!

3 College Football Angles To Watch

Friday, Sep 30, 2022

There can be some very overrated angles/systems in college football, but there are also some great angles that can help you win in the long run. The ability to decipher which angles are predictive and which are garbage is crucial. Let’s take a look at three angles that I believe can help all college football bettors! These statistics listed are all from games from 2006 through today. Road underdogs off a home favorite win (192-147 ATS or 56.6% ATS) This angle is a conference road underdog that is coming off a home ATS win. The team also has an overall winning percentage of 50-70%. As a whole, road teams have been undervalued in the past decade in college football. The road underdogs who come in with momentum have been valuable. Windy unders (550-418 ATS or 56.8%) This is a simple angle that has been a big winner for many years in a row. The average wind in the game is 13 mph or more and the posted total is set at 43.5 or higher. While many will talk about rain or snow, the wind is by far the biggest deal to totals bettors. Keep in mind as well that heavy wind is an even bigger deal when betting college football than the NFL. These quarterbacks on the whole don’t have arms that are as strong as NFL quarterbacks. A game played in heavy wind will change the play calling a lot, and that has led to unders. Small Road Conference Underdogs on the ML (904-1645 or 35.5% but with a 7.1% Return on Investment) This is taking a conference road underdog of 13.5 points or fewer on the moneyline in the first ten games of the season. This is a huge sample size and it has been a solid winner. Why eliminate games after game ten of the season? There are too many games with a lot of variance when some teams simply don’t care any more in the last week or two of the regular season. Again, we see that road teams have value and that has especially been true in conference contests. Keep an eye out for games that would fit these angles as you do your college football handicapping the rest of the season. This information could give you a little extra edge when placing those bets!

College Football: 3 Winless ATS Teams- Should You Buy Low?

Monday, Sep 26, 2022

We’re already to week five in the college football season. Time flies when you are having a good time. College football is a fan favorite for a reason. We’ve had yet another early season full of upsets and all kinds of craziness. In general, a good idea is to try to buy low and sell high. That is good stock market advice and college football betting advice as well. You want to try to find teams who have been burning money and buy in on them if there is a good reason to expect better results going forward. Let’s take a look at three winless teams ATS so far this year. Are they teams I’d be interested in backing going forward at all? They need to be evaluated on a case by case basis. Georgia State Panthers (0-4 ATS This Season) Georgia State had a season win total of 7.5 before the season. There have been a lot of sharp bettors looking to bet on this team so far this year, but it hasn’t worked out. Georgia State’s defense has let them down. The Panthers have allowed at least 35 points in all four of their contests. I think this is a well-coached team and they have played a relatively tough schedule, especially for a Sun Belt program. I don’t have much interest in backing them against the triple option attack of Army this weekend, but going forward there should be some chances. The schedule lightens up later in the season for the Panthers, and virtually no one is going to want to bet them based on how they have been burning money. I think there will be some solid contrarian spots to bet on this team. Auburn Tigers (0-4 ATS This Season) Bryan Harsin was reportedly going to be fired if the Missouri Tigers beat Auburn this past Saturday. Auburn tried to give them the game, but Missouri refused to take it. That was one the craziest finishes in college football this year. Missouri missed a very short game winning field goal in regulation and then fumbled the ball right before the goal line when they would have won the game in overtime. Harsin is still in a really bad spot, and this Auburn team lacks a real identity at this point. I see no reason to try to be looking for a time to buy low on this squad. There will have to be some major changes here before I’m interested in backing them. Utah State Aggies (0-4 ATS This Season)Utah State had an amazing run last season. The Aggies won the Mountain West Conference in stunning fashion in 2021. They entered the season last year with a win total of 3 or 3.5. They are now 1-3 overall and 0-4 ATS this season. Their lone win is over lowly UConn. They also lost at home 35-7 to Weber State. Logan Bonner threw 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. So far this year, Bonner has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Bonner threw a whopping 5 interceptions in Utah State’s home loss to UNLV last week. That was a game where Utah State actually won the box score, but finished a ridiculous -6 in turnover margin.Blake Anderson is a really good coach, and I do think Utah State will continue to fight the rest of the season. This is a team I will look for spots to bet on later in the year.

Three Group of 5 Teams to Follow/Watch In the 2022 Season

Monday, Aug 29, 2022

We all know about the big names like Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, and Notre Dame. Of course those teams are going to be tremendous. Do you think the oddsmakers know that? Absolutely! I find it more valuable to try to look for teams who could make some noise that are off the radar a bit. Let’s take a look at three teams from Group of 5 conferences who I think you should be paying attention to going into the season.Air Force FalconsThe Mountain West is a strong conference, and I expect Air Force to be a true contender here. The Falcons are coached by Troy Calhoun, who is an underrated coach by many bettors. They have a veteran star signal caller in Haaziq Daniels. A great decision maker at quarterback is crucial in this triple option attack, and Air Force absolutely has that in Daniels. They are loaded in the backfield as well. Despite having an inexperienced offensive line last season, they led the nation in rushing yards. Look out for a ton of rushing yards this year! It’s also important to note that Air Force has a very favorable schedule. There’s only a game or two where there is even a chance they will be an underdog. The Falcons get Boise State at home, and they don’t have to play Fresno State. Toledo Rockets The Toledo Rockets went 7-6 last year despite having a much higher expected win percentage based on advanced statistics. They lost a bunch of very close games. The ball didn’t seem to bounce their way. Toledo has the most talent of any team in the Mid American Conference. DeQuan Finn is now the clear cut starter at quarterback, and he’s a great runner and a solid passer. Peny Boone transferred in from Maryland to be the starter at running back.The MAC is always wild, and I would expect no different this year. Those MACtion games in the middle of the week come in November can be about as good as you get. Toledo hasn’t made bettors money in the last three years on the whole, and I think that makes them undervalued coming into this season. Can the talent win out for the Rockets?Southern Miss Golden EaglesThe Southern Miss football program has a nice history, but last year the train went way off the tracks. The Golden Eagles went 3-9 and 4-8 ATS. They had so many quarterback injuries and talent issues that Frank Gore Jr. ended up playing quarterback at the end of the season. Gore is a good runner (one of the best in the Sun Belt), and Southern Miss will be happy to have him back at running back this season. Ty Keyes is said to be ready to go for the season at quarterback.The Southern Miss defense wasn’t bad last year. They were put in terrible spots consistently, but they did stand up and do a solid job given everything thrown their way. Ole Miss transfer Tylan Knight comes in and he should be star at linebacker. The secondary is very good as well. This team is off the radar of most people because they were so bad a year ago, but they are more talented than their record appeared. They could be one to watch on an against the spread basis this year!

Four College Football Coaching & Schematic Changes to Consider

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022

As a college football bettor, one of the first things you should do early in the season is look for teams making large changes. This can be head coaching changes or it can be coordinator changes. Looking for drastic changes can give you a chance to find value in the early season. Let’s take a look at four teams where there could be major changes this year.Pittsburgh PanthersPat Narduzzi is still here, but there’s a big change at offensive coordinator with Frank Cignetti taking over after Mark Whipple left for Nebraska. Pittsburgh was a pass heavy team under Whipple with Kenny Pickett at the helm. Cignetti has made it clear he wants Pittsburgh to be a run first team that controls the clock. The Panthers still have a great defense. Pickett is gone and Kedon Slovis takes over at quarterback. The Pitt offense should look a lot different this year.Washington HuskiesKalen DeBoer is a great offensive mind, and he steps in after the Jimmy Lake era flopped in a big way. DeBoer did some tremendous things at both Indiana and Fresno State. Michael Penix Jr. transfers in to Washington. The Huskies were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. I would expect a faster pace of play this season. Can Penix get back to his old form from before the injury? I wouldn’t expect as many defensive slog it out type games here as we have seen in recent seasons.New Mexico State AggiesJerry Kill takes over at New Mexico State. This is undeniably a very tough job. Kill is a quality coach, but it won’t be a quick fix. New Mexico State ranked 28th in the nation in tempo last year, and Kill has made it very clear they are going to slow down this year. New Mexico State is very weak at quarterback and they are going to do their best to run the football and control the clock. I would expect this team to go from top 30 in the country in tempo to bottom 30 in the country in tempo. Kansas State WildcatsCollin Klein takes over as the new offensive coordinator in Manhattan. I think Chris Klieman is an excellent coach. He has typically been seen as a defensive-minded guy who wants to keeps games lower scoring and grind out games. Klein has been quoted multiple times in the offseason as saying this team wants to play faster. Kansas State ranked 127th out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play last year. They bring in Adrian Martinez at quarterback, and that should make this team interesting to watch at the very least. Can he get his turnover problems under control? I’m still a little skeptical that Kansas State would want to play very fast, but I’ll be closely watching for changes here.

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