College Hoops Overall Betting- Last 30 Days Trends
College Hoops Overall Betting Last 30 Days TrendsWhat has happened in the last 30 days in college basketball? I’m looking only from a bettors perspective at the whole picture of the college basketball landscape. Let’s see what has gone on and then take a look at whether we can gain any edges going forward. Last 30 Days Betting StatsHome Teams 580-634 ATS (47.8%)Road Teams 634-580 ATS (52.2%) Underdogs 612-606 ATS (50.4%) Home Underdogs 179-201 ATS (47.1%) 612 Overs 606 Unders (50.2%)Overtime Games 67-10 Overs (87% Overs) Non-Overtime Games 596-545 Unders (52.2% Unders) Let’s start with the totals. It should come as no surprise that games that go to overtime go over the total at a very high rate. If you could predict which games were going over the total, you could be rich! That’s obviously very hard to predict. On the other hand, you can try to predict which games won’t go to overtime and that helps a lot with knowing where there can be opportunities to bet the under. Unders where there is a large point spread have done better than unders in general for many years. That is because there is far less of a chance of a late fouling fest, and a much smaller chance of overtime. I also do consider overs a bit more when the point spread is between 5-8 points because of the increased chances of a late foul fest. On the ATS front, home teams did very poorly in the last 30 days. Is it an aberration? They won’t continue to do this poorly ATS consistently, but road teams have had the edge over home teams in most recent seasons. There is quite a bit of evidence that home court advantage is overvalued by the betting markets. There are obviously exceptions to the rule where some specific home courts are worth a lot, but on the whole home court advantage is being overstated.There are about five weeks left in the regular season. As we grow closer to the end of the season, I would try to keep an eye out for teams who have little to play for and seem to be just going through the motions. The oddsmakers are good at their job, but there are always some edges to be found.
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