NBA Playoff Angles to Consider
The NBA playoffs are here! It’s an exciting time of the year. I personally find the NBA regular season difficult to watch, but the playoffs are fantastic. These are top end players putting out max effort, and it results in some great drama. I wanted to take a look at a few important angles/trends to consider when you are betting the NBA playoffs. First Round Unders- It’s no secret that the defensive intensity goes up a whole lot when the playoffs get started. That has led to a lot of unders in the first round of the NBA playoffs going all the way back to 2006. During that time, totals of 200.5 or higher are 249-200 (55.5% unders) on the closing line. It is important to remember that many NBA totals in the first round are bet down, so numbers on the opening line would be even more toward the under. In the Eastern Conference, first round totals of 200.5 or higher are 103-72 (58.9%) to the under during that time. First Round Non Playoff Team on the Road vs. First Round Playoff Team- This angle is betting on first round playoff teams who were not part of the NBA playoffs in the previous year. The angle fits only when they are playing against teams who were in the playoffs the previous season. Those road teams who missed the playoffs the previous year are 76-53 (58.9%) ATS going back to 2011. NBA Playoffs- Fade Trendy Underdog This one is through the entire NBA playoffs. It is a fade of a trendy underdog. Betting on the home team who is receiving 40% or fewer of the spread bets: they are 123-89 (58%) ATS since 2005. If the home favorite is -6.5 or less, the number jumps to 93-62 (60% ATS). In the first three games of a playoff series, this angle jumps all the way up to 55-31 (64% ATS). Keep an eye out for games that fit these angles in the NBA playoffs. There will be plenty that match these angles. I would never blindly bet these angles, but they are great to know as part of your handicapping the NBA playoffs.
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