4 MLB Regression Signs: Pitching

I like to look for signs of regression in Major League Baseball. You never know exactly when regression will come, but when some key statistics stand out it can be clear that it will eventually be on the way. Let’s look at pitching numbers today. 

#1. Cincinnati Reds (Negative)- Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of just .263 against Cincinnati Reds pitchers. The league average is about .287. In this large of a sample, that kind of difference is significant. In conjunction with this information, the Reds overall ERA is 3.78 and their FIP is 4.10. The Reds pitching staff is pretty good, but they aren’t as good as they have looked so far this season. 

#2. Baltimore Orioles (Positive) Here’s a case of expected positive regression for the Baltimore Orioles. How has this team been so bad this season? The biggest disappointment in baseball. The Orioles pitching staff has a strand rate of just 69.0% compared to a league average of 74%. We should expect the Orioles pitchers to have some more luck when it comes to stranding baserunners. The Orioles ERA is 5.50 and their FIP is 4.99. Baltimore’s pitching staff isn’t good, but they aren’t as bad as they currently look.

#3. Kansas City Royals (Negative) The Kansas City pitching staff has been lights out so far this year. It’s a good thing, because the Royals bats have been dreadful. Kansas City’s pitching staff has an ERA of 3.17, but their FIP is 3.67 and their xFIP is even a bit higher at 3.83. The Royals have recently had several key injuries to their starting pitching. This is a group that I expect to come back down to earth some in the coming weeks.

#4. New York Mets (Negative) Somehow the Mets pitching staff has allowed just 0.64 home runs per nine innings. The average in Major League Baseball is 1.06. I don’t expect the Mets to go all the way up to the league average, but there should be some negative regression on the way. The Mets ERA is 2.83, and their xFIP is 3.74. This is a team that has very solid pitching, but they are due to come back toward the pack.