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MLB Postseason Futures Outlook

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022

MLB Postseason Futures Outlook  The MLB Playoffs have a new format this season and there may be some inefficiency in the futures market as four teams will have a bye in the first round for a dramatic change to the mechanics of the tournament. The eight teams playing immediately in the playoffs will play a best of three series to bring higher variance to the picture and potentially help the case for a possible series upset.  The division series games will start on October 11 as the four teams not playing in the wild card round will have six days off after the regular season, perhaps a less than ideal situation for lineups to maintain their peak form. The ALDS and NLDS pairings will remain best of five games before the standard seven-game series format goes in place for the League Championship Series.  With a week to go in the regular season the wild card teams are still jostling for positions. While Baltimore has not yet been eliminated in the AL, the three likely wild card teams Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Seattle are separated by only two games as the positions are still in flux. In the National League Milwaukee is just a half-game out of the final playoff position as they will compete with San Diego and Philadelphia in the final week with only two of those three teams making the field.  The NL East race is the most critical piece of the futures picture as the Mets lead Atlanta by one game in the standings with those teams entering the NL field as the #2 and #4 seeds. This distinction will be severe as the #4 seed will not only have to face a do-or-die three-game series in the wild card round, but they will also be paired with the Dodgers in the NLDS should they survive that round.  In the American League the case can be made that the #6 seed may be the preferable wild card position, drawing the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians, a team that might wind up with a lesser record than some of the wild card teams. The victor of the 3/6 pairing will be matched with a Yankees team that slumped in the final two months of the season rather than the AL leading Astros.  Likewise the case can be made that it may be preferable to be the #2 seed compared to being the #1 seed in this format as the top wild card team if often a stronger team than the #3 division winner, as would likely be the case in both leagues this season.  Worthy Long Shots: Atlanta Braves: +950 to win the World Series (9/29 at FanDuel)  The Braves are catching nearly double the price that the Mets have while just one game out of the NL East lead heading into the final week of the regular season. Atlanta has the better scoring differential on the season and is on a 74-32 run since June 1. Atlanta will host New York for three games this week before finishing the season in Miami as the Braves have a great opportunity to win the series this week to move into at least a tie for the division lead. The Mets close the season hosting Washington, a team that has been playing well down the stretch as Atlanta has a realistic chance to climb to the #2 seed.  Even if the Braves do wind up in the wild card route, the Padres, Phillies, and Brewers don’t offer an overly intimidating draw in the 4/5 pairing. The Braves also are the biggest threat to the Dodgers as Atlanta is 36-16 vs. left-handed starters while posting some of MLB’s best offensive splits vs. left-handed pitching. All four starters in the Los Angeles rotation right now are left-handed until Tony Gonsolin comes off the IL and it is unlikely Gonsolin would get a start in the NLDS anyhow. Atlanta took the Dodgers to seven games in the 2020 NLCS and won the NLCS 4-2 against the Dodgers last season as the Braves are a serious NL threat in whatever path they wind up in.  Tampa Bay Rays: +1000 to win the American League (9/29 at DraftKings)  The Rays could wind up in any of the three wild card positions. The #6 spot opposite Cleveland is a favorable place to be but even if they match up with Toronto, the Rays won the season series with the Blue Jays and the pricing gap between those teams in this market is difficult to justify. Toronto’s offense has been streaky and the starting pitching for the Blue Jays is marginal. Shane McClanahan has been one of the top pitchers in MLB this season to give the Rays a true ace while Tyler Glasnow’s recent return provides a boost to the pitching staff even if he is only used in relief or as an opener as he works his way back to full strength. Corey Kluber and Drew Rasmussen have had fine seasons and the pitching staff for Tampa Bay can carry it to a series win, particularly in a three-game set where McClanahan can start Game 1.  The Rays play at Houston in the final week of the regular season to provide some familiarity and comfort level should they advance and match up with Houston in the ALDS. Tampa Bay went just 8-11 vs. the Yankees but with near-even scoring and the Rays went 5-4 vs. New York in the final three series between those teams. The Rays beat the Yankees in the 2020 ALDS and New York’s starting pitching has left plenty of question marks down the stretch as they could be a vulnerable group.  Seattle Mariners: +1400 to win the American League (9/29 at BetMGM) The Mariners have not made the playoffs since their 116-win 2001 season and after narrowly missing the postseason last year Seattle is in a good position to not only get in but to emerge as a threat to win several games. Seattle closes the season on a long home stand to avoid hectic late season travel and this team is well-suited for a three-game series with Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray as elite starting pitchers from each side. Seattle has not played its best ball in September and the recent injury to star rookie Julio Rodriguez is a setback, but he is expected to be cleared to return in early October in time for the playoffs. Cleveland has been a great story this season but right now the Mariners have a stronger scoring differential than Cleveland and own 15 more wins vs. winning teams than the Guardians. Seattle also went 6-1 head-to-head with Cleveland this season with a 29-11 edge in scoring. Seattle won four of six with the Yankees this season as the Mariners would be a threat to get in a position for a competitive ALDS series to provide profitable opportunities for those holding a piece of a long shot ticket with Seattle.  Milwaukee Brewers: +5000 to win the National League (9/29 at PointsBet)  The Brewers are not even in the playoffs right now as this is a serious long shot proposition. The closing schedule is dramatically favorable for Milwaukee compared to Philadelphia however, playing at home vs. Miami and Arizona for the final two series. A Phillies team with a 10-13 record in September while -16 in scoring will be on the road for the final two series, playing Washington and Houston. The Astros may not have anything to play for in that final series, but Washington is on pace to have its best month of the season in September even if the Nationals have played poorly head-to-head with the Phillies. If Milwaukee finds a way into the playoffs as the #6 seed they would have a familiar draw in the Cardinals, who they went 9-10 against. Milwaukee’s starting pitching with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes would be formidable in a three-game series and while St. Louis added left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana mid-season in part to match up with Milwaukee, the Cardinals would almost certainly start right-hander Adam Wainwright in Game 1 for a possible advantage in the huge swing game for a Brewers team that excels vs. right-handers. Holding this ticket comes with no serious expectation that Milwaukee will make it to the World Series but even entering the playoffs or providing a Game 1 win in the wild card round would provide a profitable hedging situation.  If you are looking to play on one of the favorites in the postseason futures market, truthfully, you’re too late. At the current prices you are better off waiting to see how the bracket plays out to see if one of the top contenders would lose an opening game of the division series to provide a window to jump back in at a more favorable price. In the division series round last season, three of the four teams that advanced lost Game 1 in the ALDS or NLDS. The MLB playoffs rarely go according to seeding form and with the new format the advantage for the #1 seeds has been reduced with a case to be made the #2 seeds could have a more favorable position.  Remember, playing the futures market is not about guessing who will win it all, it is about consistently adjusting your positions to ensure that you profit no matter what team wins. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022

The Thursday sports card features action in NFL, NCAAF, and MLB.Week 4 in the National Football League kicks off with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Miami Dolphins on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Bengals won their first game last week with a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Dolphins remained unbeaten this season with a 21-19 upset win at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 48 (all odds from DraftKings).The fourth week of the college football regular season begins with BYU playing at home against Utah State on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Cougars won for the third time in their first four games with a 38-24 victory at home against Wyoming as a 21-point favorite on Saturday night. The Aggies lost for the third time in their first four games after a 34-24 loss at home to UNLV as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. BYU is a 25-point favorite with an over/under of 60.Major League Baseball has ten games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. Detroit is home against Kansas City, with Eduardo Rodriguez taking the ball to pitch against Jonathan Heasley for the Royals. The Tigers are a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Chicago visits Minnesota with the White Sox tapping Lucas Giolito to pitch against the Twins’ Louie Varland. The White Sox are a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles at 1:35 PM ET. Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill for the Red Sox to battle against Mike Baumann for the Orioles. Boston is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies play at Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. The Phillies turn to Ranger Suarez in their starting rotation to pitch against the Cubs’ Javier Assad. Philadelphia is a -190 money line road favorite. The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET. Jeffrey Springs takes the mound for the Rays to duel against Cal Quantrill for the Guardians. Tampa Bay is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Miami Marlins play at Milwaukee against the Brewers at 7:40 PM ET. The Marlins Braxton Garrett takes the ball to pitch against the Brewers Eric Lauer. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET. Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels against Cole Irvin for the A’s. Los Angeles is a -250 money line favorite with a total of 7. Two MLB games start at 9:40 PM ET. Los Angeles travels to San Diego with neither the Dodgers nor the Padres yet to commit to their starting pitcher for the game. Seattle is home against Texas, with the Mariners sending Marco Gonzales to pitch against the Rangers’ Jon Gray. The Mariners are a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies at 9:45 PM ET. Carlos Rodon takes the hill for the Giants to pitch against Ryan Feltner for the Rockies. San Francisco is a -215 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

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FBS Coaching Change ATS Results since 2018

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022

FBS Coaching Change ATS Results since 2018 The calendar has not even turned to October yet and three major conference FBS head coaches have already been fired. In most recent seasons there are only a handful of mid-season changes at FBS schools, but last season 15 head coaches were fired or resigned before the end of the regular season as there seems to be a quickening pace for programs to get in front of the line for the next hiring cycle.  Nebraska was a popular play-on team after Scott Frost was fired and there is a general perception that a coaching change might provide a spark for a program and could be a catalyst to saving the season if the move is made early. Nebraska and Arizona State both lost badly in their first games after making September coaching changes this season and the track record the past few years has a negative correlation in the games following a move, albeit with a small sample size and many circumstantial differences in each case.  An argument can be made that administrators don’t necessarily want interim coaches to succeed, potentially thwarting their preferred coaching choice for the future, and in the case of the three firings this season, the move came preceding one of the most difficult games of the season rather than ahead of a more favorable stretch of the schedule. Nebraska fired Frost ahead of hosting Oklahoma, Arizona State fired Herm Edwards ahead of hosting Utah. Geoff Collins was just fired ahead of playing at Pittsburgh for a tough pairing in the transition.  Below is a list of the mid-season FBS coaching changes since 2018 and the result immediately following the move. In the next game after a coaching change, those teams have gone 7-24 S/U and 10-21 ATS. Only eight teams out 29 mid-season coaching changes from 2018 and 2021 finished the season with a winning ATS record the rest of the way following making a move.  Most schools making a mid-season coaching change are having a difficult season, so it is not a surprise that losing results continue. There is however not much support in the recent instances to suggest there is any sort of coaching change spark provided to teams, nor a valuation decrease significant enough to warrant playing on teams in this situation. It is likely best to avoid Georgia Tech this week even with an elevated underdog price and it is likely worth steering clear of backing most teams that have made a coaching change during the season.  10/14/2018 Bowling Green 1-6 S/U, 2-5 ATS Mike Jinks firedNext Game: At Ohio (+16) S/U and ATS Loss 14-49Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 2-3 ATS 10/31/2018 Maryland 5-3 S/U, 5-3 ATS DJ Durkin firedNext Game: At Michigan State (+3.5) S/U and ATS Loss 3-24Record after coaching change: 0-4 S/U, 1-3 ATS  11/4/2018 Kansas 3-6 S/U, 4-5 ATS David Beaty firedNext Game: At Kansas State (+8.5) S/U Loss and ATS Win 17-21Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 3-0 ATS  11/11/2018 Louisville 2-8 S/U, 1-9 ATS Bobby Petrino fired Next Game: Hosting NC State (+16) S/U and ATS loss 10-52Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 11/18/2018 Colorado 5-6 S/U, 5-6 ATS Mike MacIntyre firedNext Game: At California (+11.5) S/U and ATS Loss 21-33Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS 11/18/2018 Texas State 3-8 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS Everett Withers firedNext Game: Hosting Arkansas state (+14) S/U and ATS Loss 7-33Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 11/18/2018 Charlotte 4-7 S/U, 6-5 ATS Brad Lambert firedNext Game: AT Florida Atlantic (+16.5) S/U and ATS Win 27-24Record after coaching change: 1-0 S/U, 1-0 ATS 9/30/2019 Rutgers 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS Chris Ash firedNext Game: Hosting Maryland (+14) S/U and ATS Loss 7-48Record after coaching change: 1-7 S/U, 3-5 ATS  11/3/2019 Florida State 4-5 S/U, 3-5-1 ATS Willie Taggart firedNext Game: At Boston College (+1) S/U and ATS Win 38-31Record after coaching change: 2-2 S/U, 1-3 ATS (lost bowl game)  11/10/2019 Arkansas 2-8 S/U, 2-8 ATS Chad Morris firedNext Game: At LSU (+41) S/U Loss and ATS Win 20-56Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 2-0 ATS  11/22/2019 UNLV 2-8 S/U 4-6 ATS Tony Sanchez was fired but remained to coach the final two games – which were both S/U and ATS wins  9/7/2020 Southern Miss 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS - Jay Hopson resignedNext Game: Hosting Louisiana Tech (-7) S/U and ATS Loss 30-31Record after coaching change: 2-6 S/U, 4-5 ATS  11/7/2020 Utah State 0-3 S/U, 0-3 ATS - Gary Andersen firedNext Game: Hosting Fresno State (+11) S/U and ATS Loss 16-35Record after coaching change: 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS 11/16/2020 South Carolina 2-5 S/U, 4-3 ATS - Will Muschamp firedNext Game: Hosting Missouri (+5.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-17Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 0-3 ATS  11/29/2020 Vanderbilt 0-8 S/U, 4-4 ATS - Derek Mason firedNext Game: Hosting Tennessee (+15.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-42Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS 9/6/2021 Connecticut 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS - Randy Edsall resignedNext Game: Hosting Purdue (+35) S/U and ATS Loss 0-49Record after coaching change: 1-9 S/U, 6-4 ATS  9/14/2021 USC 1-1 S/U, 1-1 ATS - Clay Helton firedNext Game: At Washington State (-3.5) S/U and ATS Win 45-14 Record after coaching change: 3-7 S/U, 3-7 ATS  9/26/2021 Georgia Southern 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS - Chad Lunsford firedNext Game: Hosting Arkansas State (-2) S/U and ATS Win 59-33Record after coaching change: 2-6 S/U, 5-3 ATS 10/19/2021 LSU 4-3 S/U, 3-4 ATS - Ed Orgeron resignedNext Game: At Mississippi (+9.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-31 Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 2-2-1 ATS  10/20/2021 Washington State 4-3 S/U, 4-3 ATS - Nick Rolovich firedNext Game: Hosting BYU (+3.5) S/U Loss and ATS Win 19-21 Record after coaching change: 3-3 S/U, 4-2 ATS  10/25/2021 Texas Tech 5-3 S/U, 4-4 ATS - Matt Wells firedNext Game: At Oklahoma (+19) S/U and ATS Loss 21-52 Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 3-2 ATS 10/31/2021 TCU 3-5 S/U,1-7 ATS - Gary Patterson resignedNext Game: Hosting Baylor (+7.5) S/U and ATS Win 30-28Record after coaching change: 2-2 S/U, 1-3 ATS 11/4/2021 Akron 2-7 S/U, 4-5 ATS - Tom Arth firedNext Game: At Western Michigan (+25) S/U Loss and ATS Win 40-45Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 1-2 ATS  11/8/2021 Massachusetts 1-8 S/U, 3-6 ATS - Walt Bell firedNext Game: Hosting Maine (+4.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-35Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 1-2 ATS  11/14/2021 Washington 4-6 S/U, 3-7 ATS Jimmy Lake – fired – had been suspended for final game Next Game: At Colorado (-6.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-20 Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS  11/15/2021 Florida International 1-9 S/U, 2-8 ATS Butch Davis firedNext Game: Hosting North Texas (+10.5) S/U and ATS Loss 7-49Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 11/16/2021 Virginia Tech 5-5 S/U, 4-6 ATS Justin Fuente firedNext Game: At Miami, FL (+7) S/U and ATS Loss 26-38 Record after coaching change: 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS (lost bowl game)  11/21/2021 Florida 5-6 S/U, 3-8 ATS Dan Mullen firedNext Game: Hosting Florida State (-3.5) S/U Win and ATS Loss 24-21Record after coaching change: 1-1 S/U, 0-2 ATS (lost bowl game)  11/23/2021 New Mexico State 1-10 S/U, 6-5 ATS Doug Martin firedNext Game: Hosting Massachusetts (-7) S/U and ATS Win 44-27Record after coaching change: 1-0 S/U, 1-0 ATS 11/21/2021 Troy 5-6 S/U, 4-7 ATS Chip Lindsey firedNext Game: At Georgia State (+6.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-37Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS 9/11/2022 Nebraska 1-2 S/U, 0-3 ATS Scott Frost firedNext Game: Hosting Oklahoma (+10.5) S/U and ATS Loss 14-49 9/18/2022 Arizona State 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS Herm Edwards firedNext Game: Hosting Utah (+16.5) S/U and ATS Loss 13-34 9/25/2022 Georgia Tech 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS Geoff Collins firedNext Game: At Pittsburgh (+22) October 1 

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