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NBA System of the Week

Sports handicappers have many tools in their toolbox that they use to get an edge on the bookmakers.  When I handicap the NBA, I like to look at things like margin of victory, points scored, home/road statistics, won/loss percentages, and so forth.  Another thing I will often look at is the series history between the two teams, with a particular focus on which team won the previous meeting, and by how many points.Tonight, we have a nice situation in the NBA.  The Los Angeles Lakers will be in Chicago to face the Bulls, who just walloped L.A. at Staples Center five days ago, 146-115.  And what made that loss even more remarkable was that the Lakers were favored by 10.5 points, yet lost by 31.I consulted my trusty NBA Database (which was written up in ESPN Magazine on December 13, 2010), and researched how teams do when playing with revenge from such a big defeat earlier in the season.  And here's what I found.  Teams playing with revenge from a same-season loss by 30 or more points do quite well provided two other factors were present.  First, our revenge-minded team need to be the favorite.  And, second, our opponent needed to be off a SU/ATS win.  In that situation, our revengers have gone 73-46-1 ATS since 1990.Let's look deeper at our Chicago Bulls/Los Angeles Lakers match-up tonight.  The Lakers played last night, so there's always a chance they might rest players.  However, currently, both Luka Doncic and LeBron James are expected to suit up, and L.A. is a 4-point favorite at Circa Sportsbook.  That's good, since our revenger does need to be the favorite.  Next, we need the Bulls to be off a SU/ATS win.  And, indeed, they are, as they defeated Denver, 129-119, in their previous game.NBA System of the Week:  Play on a favorite with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 30 or more points, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS win. Tonight's play:  Los Angeles Lakers -4Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/27/2025

 The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Indiana Pacers travel to Washington to play the Wizards as an 11-point road favorite with the total set at 235.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Orlando Magic host the Dallas Mavericks as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 219. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 239. The Miami Heat are home against the Atlanta Hawks at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers play in Chicago against the Bulls as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 239. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Memphis Grizzlies as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 238. The Houston Rockets are in Utah to play the Jazz at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 228. The Sacramento Kings play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5.The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres are home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Montreal Canadiens visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Utah Hockey Club as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Ottawa Senators play in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Washington Capitals are in Minnesota to play the Wild at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The St. Louis Blues travel to Nashville to face the Predators at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas Stars play in Calgary against the Flames at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two NHL games begin at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Los Angeles Kings on ESPN as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are in Seattle to play the Kraken with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs visit San Jose to play the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -278 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has four games between Division I opponents in the opening games of the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Alabama battles BYU on CBS at 7:09 p.m. ET at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 175.5. Florida takes on Maryland on TBS at 7:39 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California, as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 156.5. Duke plays against Arizona on CBS at 9:39 p.m. ET at the Prudential  Center in Newark as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 153.5. Texas Tech challenges Arkansas on TBS at 10:09 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Opening Day in Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are home against the Milwaukee Brewers on ESPN at 3:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox are in Texas to play the Rangers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Washington to play the Nationals as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Six MLB games begin at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Angels play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros host the New York Mets as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves are in San Diego to go against the Padres as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Miami to take on the Marlins as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The San Francisco Giants play in Cincinnati to challenge the Reds with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins are in St. Louis to battle the Cardinals at 4:15 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5.The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Detroit Tigers on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -184 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two games conclude the MLB card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners host the Oakland A’s as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. 

World Series Projections

Favorite - Philadelphia Phillies (+1000)The Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to repeat as World Series champs, but the return is not favorable for LAD at +240. If one team has the ability to knock off the 2025 favorites, it is the Phillies. They currently have the 2nd highest active payroll and plenty of talent to compete with anyone in the league. Last season Philly finished with the second most wins, and dominated at home winning a league best 54 games at Citizen Bank Park. However, that sensational performance only amounted to a disappointing divisional series loss to the Mets in four games. On offense, Philadelphia has an elite top five of their batting order, projected as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos. Ranked top five in almost all offensive categories in 2024, except the Phillies to have elite bats once again. On defense, Zack Wheeler is the highest paid starter in baseball, while having exceptional depth behind him. Having a top tier roster (or payroll) is not necessary to win the World Series, but it certainly helps when trying to dethrone the heavily favored Dodgers. Philly is one of the few who can compete with them on paper. Mid-Tier - Detroit Tigers (+3000)Even though Detroit ended their season to Cleveland in the divisional round, losing the series 3-2, they still finished as one of the hottest teams in MLB. The Tigers were 55-63 in August, then finished the regular season 31-12, sporting the best pitching in the league during that stretch. A historic ending to 2024 leaves high hopes for Detroit in 2025. Pitching is the catalyst for the Tigers, led by reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty are extremely solid while Jackson Jobe is possibly the best pitching prospect in the sport, with a flamethrower of an arm. With a rotation like that, the Tigers will be in a lot of close ball games. They led MLB in one run wins last season with 31, but hope to have a better run differential in 2025. They have an elite group of pitchers, making them dangerous for any team to face.  Long-Shot - Milwaukee Brewers (+5000)Each year the Brewers seem to lose a few of their best players, yet reload again and again in true moneyball fashion. They have made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons which is one of the best marks in the league, especially considering their 23rd ranked payroll. Milwaukee had a top 5 team ERA last season, and the rotation is expected to be strong again with the return of star Brandon Woodruff. The batting is led by veteran Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and young star Jackson Chourio. The Brewers should once again be in contention for a NL Central title with the chance to make some noise come playoff time. Milwaukee seems to get the absolute most bang for their buck when it comes to players, maybe their World Series odds could provide some value as well.  

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