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NFL System of the Week

The NFL Playoffs resume this weekend with two match-ups of teams that already faced one another this season.  And, in the NFC Championship game, it will be the 3rd meeting of the season between NFC East division rivals.As a handicapper, I often look to previous meetings when I handicap a game.  Sometimes, that prior meeting might lead me to take a revenge-minded team.  Other times, I may play on a team because of its dominance in the series.  Here, though, we are going to focus on the Over/Under.The Commanders and Eagles second meeting this season was just five weeks ago, and the Commanders upset the Eagles, 36-33, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  The Over/Under line for that game was 47 points.This Sunday, the Eagles are a 6-point home favorite, with an O/U line of 47.5 points.What may jump out to many is the fact that the most recent meeting was an unusually high-scoring game, with 69 total points.  Some may be inclined to play on this weekend's game Over the total because of that 69-point game.  But be careful, as sporting events tend to not follow a well-worn script.  And our NFL System of the Week does, indeed, forecast a low-scoring game, as it says to play the UNDER in games between two teams whose previous meeting in the same season totaled 68 (or more) points.  Since 1980, there have been 130 such match-ups.  And the UNDER has gone 77-50-3.  Even better:  if the O/U line was greater than 47 points (as it is in this Eagles/Commanders game), then our 77-50-3 stat zooms to 24-10-2 UNDER.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/24/2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has three games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Charlotte Hornets host the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 2205 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Philadelphia to play the 76ers as a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the New Orleans at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 12-point favorite with a total of 242.5. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:37 p.m. ET. The New York Islanders are home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Dallas Stars host the Vegas Golden Knights on ESPN. The Stars lost for the third time in their last four games after a 2-1 loss at home against Carolina on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are on a four-game losing streak after a 5-4 loss against St. Louis on Monday. Dallas is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.  Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Chicago against the Blackhawks as a -230 money-line road favorite with an over/under 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Utah Hockey Club as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 13 games between Division I opponents. Eight NCAAB games are on major national television. Toledo is at Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network at 6:00 p.m. ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 159.5. Two NCAAB games on major national television at 7:00 p.m. ET. Marquette is home against Villanova on FS1 as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Ohio hosts Kent State on ESPNU as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5. Dayton plays at home against Saint Joseph on ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Flyers are on a two-game winning streak after their 82-62 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. The Hawks are a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Purdue is home against Michigan on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 4:00 p.m. ET. The Boilermakers were on a seven-game winning streak before a 73-70 upset loss against Ohio State as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday. The Wolverines won for the sixth time in their last seven times in an 80-76 victory against Northwestern as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Purdue is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 151. Two more NCAAB games on major national television begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. Iowa hosts Penn State on FS1 as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 168. VCU plays at home against St. Bonaventure on ESPNU as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. UCLA travels to play Washington on FS1 at 11:00 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 138.

NFL Championship Weekend Player Props

Terry McLaurin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)McLaurin had 89 receiving yards in the Wild Card round against Tampa and 87 yards last week to knock off the number one seeded Lions. He can take the top off the defense and has the ability to create big plays in the YAC department as he did last week, taking a 58 yard screen pass to the house. Philly is favored (-6) which should give McLaurin a few extra targets, likely playing from behind. Terry is a focal point for the Commanders and has been fantastic all season both as a wide receiver and leader in the locker room. The offensive team captain has surpassed at least 60 receiving yards in 12 of 19 games this season, and he will be relied on again to give the Commanders a shot at the Super Bowl.  Saquon Barkley Over 125.5 Rushing Yards (-115)This rushing line shows how ridiculous Saquon has been in 2024, and his line comes in right on pace with his regular season per game average. He rushed for 146 yards in week 11 and 150 yards in week 16 against the Commanders 30th ranked rushing defense. Washington gave up 138 ypg on the ground during the regular season, and one can expect a massive dose of Barkley on Sunday at the Linc. The Eagles would like nothing more than to allow their elite offensive line to maul Washington, paving the way for Saquon to continue his historic rushing postseason. Josh Allen Over Anytime TD (-105)Big Josh Allen (6’5 235) has been using his legs all year long, punching in 14 rushing touchdowns this season. With the Super Bowl on the line, Allen will be more willing than ever to extend possessions and make every redzone opportunity count. Any plays inside the 10 yard line may be designed QB runs to go along with any goalline plays being possible “tush pushes”. Buffalo should have plenty of scoring opportunities as they bring their 2nd ranked scoring offense into Kansas City. Allen will need to run the ball as much as it takes to finally get over the hump against Mahomes and the Chiefs. James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)Cook has surpassed his designated rushing mark in both postseason games, averaging 93.5 yards in those two games. He has seen 40 carries total, making it likely he will see another 15 at least in the cold night at Arrowhead. Cook is explosive and efficient, and as long as the Bills remain within striking distance, he will play a huge role for Buffalo. The Bills need to win the line of scrimmage to allow some explosive plays over the top of the Chiefs beatable defense. In a toss up matchup (KC -2), this game will be won on the ground, allowing Cook every chance to go three for three hitting his postseason rushing prop. 

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