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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/30/2023

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action.The fifth week in NCAAF college football concludes with 49 games between FBS opponents. Six nationally televised games between FBS opponents kick off at noon ET. Utah State travels to Connecticut on the CBS Sports Network as a 4-point road favorite, with the total set at 51 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). USC plays at Colorado on Fox as a 21.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 72.5. Clemson is at Syracuse on ABC as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 53. James Madison hosts South Alabama on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. Tulane plays at home against UAB on ESPN2 as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 58. Kentucky is at home against Florida on ESPN as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44. Boston College hosts Virginia on The CW at 2 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Six NCAAF games on national television start at 3:30 PM ET. Michigan plays at Nebraska on Fox as a 17.5-point road favorite with a total of 39.5. Georgia is at Auburn on CBS as a 14-point road favorite with an over/under of 45. Toledo plays at home against Northern Illinois on ESPNU as a 13-point favorite with a total of 48. Texas is at home against Kansas on ABC as a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 61. Central Florida hosts Baylor on the CBS Sports Network as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5. Purdue plays at home against Illinois on Peacock as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5. Memphis is at home against Boise State on ESPN2 at 4 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 58.5. LSU travels to Mississippi to play Ole Miss on ESPN as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 67.5. Two nationally televised NCAAF games begin at 7 PM ET. Georgia Southern hosts Coastal Carolina on the NFL Network as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 66. Oklahoma plays at home against Iowa State on FS1 as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5. Three more NCAAF games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Notre Dame is on the road at Duke on ABC a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 52.5. Iowa is at home against Michigan State on NBC as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 36.5. SMU hosts Charlotte on ESPNU as a 22.5-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Two more nationally-televised NCAAF games start at 8 PM ET. TCU plays at home against West Virginia on ESPN2 as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. Air Force is at home against San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Alabama plays at Mississippi State on ESPN at 9 PM ET as a 14.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5. Fresno State hosts Nevada on FS1 as a 24.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 3:07 PM ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies are in New York to play the Mets in the first game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite. The Miami Marlins visit Pittsburgh to play the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play in Milwaukee against the Brewers. The San Diego Padres are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees travel to Kansas City to play the Royals. The Phillies play on the road against the Mets in the second game of their doubleheader. Three MLB games start at 7:15 PM ET. The Cincinnati Reds travel to St. Louis to play the Cardinals as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Fox has two games for its regional coverage. The Texas Rangers play in Seattle against the Mariners. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Boston Red Sox as a -135 money-line favorite. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Washington Nationals at 7:20 PM ET as a -355 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins are in Colorado against the Rockies. Two more games conclude the MLB card at 9:05 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in San Francisco against the Giants as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Oakland A’s are in Los Angeles to play the Dodgers. Week 17 in the Canadian Football League concludes with two games. The Montreal Alouettes visit Ottawa to play the Redblacks at 4 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 48. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats play at home against the Calgary Stampeders at 7 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League begins with eight matches. Brighton and Hove Albion travels to Aston Villa on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Six EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Arsenal plays at Bournemouth as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Everton is at home against Luton Town as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester United hosts Crystal Palace on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Newcastle United plays at home against Burnley as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. West Ham United is at home against Sheffield United as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Manchester City visits Wolverhampton as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3. Liverpool plays at Tottenham on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

NFL Top 10 Rankings (Week 4)

We’re down to only three teams undefeated thru the first three weeks. 1. San Francisco (3-0) Although Christian McCaffrey is off to the races for a scrimmage crown, Brock Purdy is dealing at a high level to George Kittle and all of his weapons, making it even easier on the defense to tee off. Brock Purdy is still undefeated but there’s one package that teams can bring; blitz. Teams are likely to continue trying to heat up Purdy with the blitz even though he's had success against it, but it would also help if the Niners, especially on the right side of the line, continue to improve. The Niners have also allowed one of the highest pressure percentages (33.3%) in the NFL. That’s their only weakness. Defense is definitely solid. The 49ers host Arizona this week.  2. Miami (3-0) Miami needs to shore up a few things defensively under Vic Fangio and will be helped with healthier bodies, including Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphin’s lead the NFL in total yards per game (550.3), passing yards (362), rushing yards (188.3), offensive expected points added (66.97), yards per play (8.4) and scoring per game (43.3). Additionally, it's hard to find an issue on a team that just scored 70 points with 726 yards of offense in a single game. Offensively, they keep finding more speed to boost Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, now with a dynamic 1-2 punch in the running game with Raheem Mostert and rookie De'Von Achane. They have a huge statement game at Buffalo as a 3 point underdog.  3. Philadelphia (3-0) The Eagles need to get Jalen Hurts back to high efficiency in the passing game again. Defenses have often been dropping eight players into coverage while keeping safeties back to force Jalen Hurts into mostly short passes. Therefore, Philadelphia enters their Week 3 matchup against the Bucs ranked 27th in passing yards per game (162.5). The Eagles have needed to grind a little with their offense early but found their dominant rushing attack in Weeks 2 and 3. The Eagles host a much improved Washington team favored by -7.  4. Buffalo (2-1) The Bills have completed back-to-back lopsided wins, so it hasn't been a game-altering issue, but minimizing long situations on later downs would help the efficiency of the offense. They are not moving the ball on first down putting extra pressure on 2nd and 3rd down. That’s a poor formula for success. Their defense needed a stellar shutdown performance and that also came in Washington. Giddy up for Buffalo hosting Miami in an epic AFC East clash in Week 4. 5. Dallas (2-1)  In the past two games, Dallas has scored a touchdown on 3 of 11 red zone drives. The best red zone teams run the ball into the end zone but against the Cardinals, the Cowboys were without three starting offensive linemen. The Cowboys took the Cardinals lightly offensively, and once they fell behind, they couldn't dig deep enough with Dak Prescott to recover. They need Dak Prescott to be more accurate in tight quarters. They need Dak Prescott to be more accurate in tight quarters. And let’s not get started on what role Coach Mike McCarthy plays. Last season, they scored touchdowns on 40 of 56 red zone trips. Not having Trevon Diggs may be a bigger emotional blow to the defense than anticipated. Dallas is at Jerry’s Palace hosting New England favored by a touchdown.  6. Kansas City (2-1) Chris Jones' pressure and a dominant pass defense have been more impressive early as the Chiefs' defense is the big story early in the season. They're getting slowly revved up offensively toward their super standards with more diversity in the passing and running games for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have dropped 5.3% of their passes, which is tied for the sixth-worst rate in the league. Many of their drops came in the season opener against the Lions and were a major reason for the Chiefs' only defeat. The Chiefs are on the road in New Jersey as a big favorite over the Jets on Sunday Night Football.  7. Cleveland (2-1) Cleveland might be the sneaky new AFC North favorites. The Browns are coming off a dominant win over the Tennessee Titans, and QB Deshaun Watson delivered his best performance in a Browns uniform, completing 82% of his passes. Was this effort dedicated to missing Nick Chubb being out for the year? These next two games -- against the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers -- should reveal whether Watson and the Browns' passing attack can actually carry Cleveland to the playoffs. We get to see who’s the best so far in the AFC East as they host the Ravens. Early money has come on on Cleveland.  8. Baltimore (2-1) The Ravens got a little sloppy in the wet conditions at home and it cost them against the Colts in overtime. QB Lamar Jackson nearly has as many rushing yards (193) as all of Baltimore's running backs combined (249). Baltimore has been hardest hit at running back. In addition to the season-ending Achilles injury to Dobbins, two other backs have suffered injuries: Gus Edwards (concussion) and Justice Hill (toe). Defense’s will look to hit Lamar harder when he’s running out of the pocket. They can’t afford him getting injured. They still seem to be at their best running with Lamar Jackson and others and still uncomfortable forcing downfield passing. The Ravens face a difficult matchup against the Browns Sunday and come in as the underdog.  9. Seattle (2-1) Seattle scored 37 points and racked up 425 yards of offense Sunday despite going just 3-of-13 on third down (including a kneel-down in the closing seconds). The Seahawks haven't finished better than 16th in third-down conversion rate since 2015, a long-standing issue that has continued so far this season. The Seahawks' defense is having more issues vs. the pass everywhere on the field but the offensive formula of running balanced by efficient passing from Geno Smith is working well again.Seattle is playing Monday against the NY Giants and opened as a 1 point dog.  10. Detroit (2-1) Detroit’s offense is off to yet another strong start, scoring 20 or more points in 12 straight games dating back to last season. However, the ground attack could be more efficient. The Lions' defense made a statement in Week 1 at Kansas City before crashing vs. Seattle in Week 2. Aidan Hutchinson and friends rose to the occasion in ripping the one-dimensional Falcons and making it a simpler outing for Jared Goff. I believe that the passionate play of Hutchinson lifts every player on the team. 

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/29/2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action.The fifth week in NCAAF college football continues with four games on national television between FBS opponents. Louisville travels to North Carolina State on ESPN at 1 PM ET. The Cardinals have won their first four games this season after their 56-28 victory against Boston College as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. The Wolfpack raised their record to 3-1 with a 24-21 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Friday. Louisville is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 55.5 (all odds from DraftKings).Two more NCAAF games kick off at 9 PM ET. Oregon State hosts Utah on FS1. The Beavers lost their first game of the season in a 38-35 upset loss at Washington State as a 3-point road favorite last Saturday. The Utes remained unbeaten in their first four games after their 14-7 victory against UCLA as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5.UTEP plays at home against Louisiana Tech on the CBS Sports Network. The Miners have lost three games in a row after their 45-28 upset loss at home to UNLV as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. The Bulldogs fell to 2-3 on the year with their 28-14 loss at Nebraska as a 20-point underdog last Saturday. UTEP is a 1-point favorite a total of 50.5. Cincinnati is at BYU on ESPN at 10:15 PM ET. The Bearcats have lost two games in a row after their 20-6 loss to Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Cougars lost their first game of the season with their 38-27 loss at Kansas as a 9-point underdog last Saturday. Cincinnati is a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 50.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins play in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET. The Cleveland Guardians visit Detroit to play the Tigers as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:05 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:07 PM ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play in New York against the Mets at 7:10 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against Washington at 7:20 PM ET as a -278 money-line favorite with a total of 10.5. The San Diego Padres play in Chicago against the White Sox at 7:40 PM ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees travel to Kansas City to play the Royals as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins are in Colorado to play the Rockies. The Chicago Cubs play in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 8:15 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angeles host the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Houston Astros at 9:40 PM ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 10:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in San Francisco against the Giants at 10:15 PM ET. Week 17 in the Canadian Football League begins with two games. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are at home against the Toronto Argonauts at 8 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 48. The British Columbia Lions host the Saskatchewan Roughriders at 10:30 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 49.

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