by Kyle Hunter
Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025We are nearly a month into the MLB regular season. I wanted to take a look at the road/home splits so far. They are pretty drastic, but after we take a look at the specifics we’ll also examine if there is anything you should look for going forward.
For games played through April 21st, the home team is 206-129 on the moneyline (61.5%) and bettors just blindly backing the home team in every game on the moneyline have an ROI of 9.7%. The National League home teams have been cashing at a really high rate. In the NL alone, the home team is 109-57 (65.7%) for an ROI of 16.1%. Additionally, it is has mainly been the smaller favorites on the moneyline that have really paid off for bettors so far this season. Home teams with a price of -137 or smaller are 80-46 (63.5%) for an ROI of 16.9%.
How did home favorites do in the last two full seasons in Major League Baseball? In the 2023 and 2024 seasons, home favorites went 1,750-1,259 (57.9%), but bettors lost money betting all of those favorites. In fact, if you bet all the home favorites in 2023 and 2024 you had an ROI of -5.1%. On home favorites of -137 or smaller, the ROI was -3.6% in 2023 and 2024.
What should you do betting going forward with the information of home favorites crushing it in baseball so far this season? You should expect regression to the mean! No one knows how soon it will come, but regression to the mean is absolutely coming. In most professional sports, the home field/court advantage has actually gotten smaller in recent years.
If the market wants to start putting a premium on home teams, I would look for spots to bet those road underdogs on the moneyline.
