Betting the Zig-Zag Theory in the NBA Playoffs
by Wayne Root
Friday, Apr 25, 2025WHAT IS THE ZIG-ZAG THEORY?For those of you who haven’t heard of the zig-zag theory before, we wouldn’t blame you thinking it’s some kind of wacky back and forth strategy for placing bets.We promise, there’s way more to it than that on this page.If you’re a follower of the NBA or NHL, especially betting on these leagues, chances are you’ve come across the zig-zag theory before. This betting strategy is typically applied to basketball and hockey because they both employ a similar playoff format.The basic idea is that the team coming off a loss is more likely to cover the spread in the next game. Not only are they more motivated after losing, sportsbooks also adjust the odds in their favor for the next game.HOW DOES THE ZIG-ZAG THEORY WORK?In a nutshell, the zig-zag theory suggests that when a team loses a game, you should bet on them to cover the spread in the game directly after. Banking on a team bouncing back from a loss is an important part of the theory, but it aims to go deeper than that. It also takes into account which team is home and which is away and the travel necessary during the playoffs.The zig-zag theory is mostly applied to betting on the NBA and NHL because both leagues have the same playoff format. Players in the NBA and NHL are forced to travel more with the longer 2-2-1-1-1 format for the playoffs. With the amount of travel required for playoff teams in these leagues, the zig-zag theory is especially relevant.HOME ADVANTAGE IN ZIG-ZAG THEORYAt first glance, you might be wondering how the home advantage factors into zig-zag betting theory. Is it simply the home team having the advantage by being on the home court?The zig-zag theory aims to go deeper than that and it boils down to a mix between home-court advantage and momentum in the series. There are different ways of applying this theory depending on how a certain team is doing in a series matchup.Let’s look at some common scenarios to see how you can use the zig-zag theory to help choose the winning team.SERIES MOMENTUMThis one comes with a big caveat, especially after we went over some of the most likely odds for a team coming off of a loss early in the series.Momentum is a funny thing. Take our above stat, with lower-seeded teams winning 75% of the time at home after losing two straight games.Momentum is definitely a factor and it’s worth also considering how a team lost and how that affects the momentum. Does a blowout loss shake up a team so badly you can’t even imagine them winning the next game? Was a close loss, perhaps from a blown lead, demoralizing enough that taking the losing team to win the next game seems foolish?The bottom line is that you should look at the numbers and stats in a series first, but also consider the less cut and dry factors that can come into FACTORS TO LOOK FOR WHEN BETTING ZIG-ZAG THEORYKeep an eye out for these special circumstances and you might discover a profitable spot to use the zig-zag theory:Home Team Goes Up 1-0This is a scenario that happens approximately 53% of the time in the NBA and NHL combined. Statistics in the NBA show that if the home team wins Game 1, they have a 65% chance of winning the series.In the NHL, those odds shoot up all the way to 76%, with the most likely outcome there being that the home team wins the series in six games.If the home team goes up 1-0 it’s a great opportunity to bet on the losing team in the next game.Home Team Goes Up 2-0Betting the underdog on this third game is one of the most common ways that bettors play the zig-zag theory. The underlying strategy is that after the lower-seeded team loses the first two games on the road, they will play their hearts out in Game 3, on home ice, when the series is still within reach.Between the NBA and the NHL, the lower-seeded team ends up winning nearly 60% of the time when they go back home after losing the first two games. In a world where many of the odds are near 50%, placing a bet knowing that the historical odds are near 60% is a huge advantage.Home Team Loses First GameOf course, the home team doesn’t always win their opening game at home. When the lower-seeded team is able to win that first game, placing bets on the higher-seeded team to bounce back in Game 2 is usually a shrewd move.While momentum is a funny and sometimes unpredictable thing, odds are that the home team plays a better game on home ice in Game 2. Rough odds suggest that higher-seeded teams in the NHL and NBA teams win 75% of the time in Game 2 when they’re coming off of a loss.INJURIES CAN INFLUENCE POINT SPREAD AND THIS THEORY Google can save your life on this one if you haven’t been paying attention.This is something you MUST look into before placing your bets. If you aren’t fully immersed in the sport you’re betting on or haven’t been paying close attention, a quick Google search of a team’s injury report can save you lots of money if you do it before making a bet.In sports, injuries happen. That’s especially true in a physical league like the NHL. Make sure you’re looking in the injury reports for both teams to see if it’s significant to your bets.
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