Articles

College Football Betting: Dogs Dominate Early- What Now?

by Kyle Hunter

Friday, Sep 13, 2024

We are two weeks into the college football season. Underdogs are 101-77-2 ATS to start out the season. That is 56.7% ATS. Just start blindly betting all underdogs right? Easy! If you’ve been betting for very long, you know it isn’t that easy.Underdogs have cashed at a high rate so far this year, but the oddsmakers and the marketplace in general are quick to react to things like this. You’ll start paying a sort of tax on the underdogs. The more the word gets out that underdogs are cashing at a high rate, the worse the prices on those underdogs will get.Why have underdogs cashed at such a high rate so far this year? First, the under is hitting 56% of the time so far this year. We know that unders and underdogs are correlated in general, so that is a big help. Second, there have been several rule changes in college football. The two minute timeout shouldn’t make any difference to ATS bets. The helmet communications could have an impact of some kind. The fact that both offenses and defenses can communicate with their staffs have led to some changes. It has slowed the overall pace of the game down. A slower pace lends itself to unders and underdogs. The defenses have possibly been able to adjust a bit better.We’ve seen the market move toward the under in a lot of games in week three. I don’t think the under will continue to be a free wager. I also  don’t think the underdog will continue to cover at this rate. This isn’t some really small market in a third world country. There is a lot of money coming into the college football betting market. What to do now? I would closely watch the movement of the marketplace as a whole. Do underdogs continue to take money? If so, look to grab favorites later in the week instead of earlier. If you like a large underdog, I would look to take that earlier in the week than normal in the short term. You have to be willing to make adjustments quickly in college football, but you don’t want to change your whole betting strategy based on a couple of weeks of data. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NCAAF, and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/13/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 13, 2024

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action. Week 2 in NCAAF college football continues with two games between FBS opponents. Kansas hosts UNLV on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Jayhawks dropped to 1-1 on the season after their 23-17 upset loss at Illinois as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. The Rebels improved their record to 2-0 after their 72-14 victory against Utah Tech as a 41.5-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas is a 9.5-point favorite, with the total set at 57.5 (all odds from DraftKings).  Kansas State plays at home against Arizona on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Wildcats are 2-0 this season after their 34-27 victory at Tulane as a 9.5-point road favorite on Saturday. The Wildcats have won their first two games of the season after a 22-10 win against Northern Arizona as a 37-point favorite last week. Kansas State is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 60.5.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the New York Mets as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Kansas City Royals. The Baltimore Orioles travel to Detroit to play the Tigers. The Washington Nationals are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Atlanta against the Braves at 7:20 p.m. ET with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 8.5. The Oakland A’s are in Chicago to play the White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Minnesota Twins host the Cincinnati Reds at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 11. The Houston Astros play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 10:10 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants are at home against the San Diego Padres at 10:15 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.Week 15 in the Canadian Football League kicks off with one game. The British Columbia Lions host the Toronto Argonauts on the CBS Sports Network at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 52. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/12/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, and MLB action. Week 2 in the NFL kicks off with one game. The Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills on Amazon Prime at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Dolphins opened their season with a 20-17 victory at home against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bills began their season with a 34-28 win at home against Arizona as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Miami is a 2.5-point favorite, with the total set at 48.5. Week 2 in NCAAF college football starts with one game between FBS opponents. Texas State plays at home against Arizona State on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Bobcats won their first two games of the season after a 49-10 victory against UTSA, where they were a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. They began their season with a 34-27 win against Lamar. The Sun Devils are undefeated after their first two games after a 30-23 victory against Mississippi State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. They began their season with a 48-7 win at home against Wyoming. Texas State is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 60.Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers are home against the Colorado Rockies at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Tigers send out Tarik Skubal to pitch against the Rockies Ryan Feltner. Detroit is a -265 money-line favorite, with the total set at 7. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds at 1:15 p.m. ET. Sonny Gray gets the ball for the Cardinals to face Jakob Junis for the Reds. St. Louis is a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Houston Astros play at home against the Oakland A’s at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Astros tap Framber Valdez to go against the A’s Mitchell Spence. Houston is a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Washington Nationals are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:45 p.m. ET. Mitchell Parker takes the mound for the Nationals to challenge Darren McCaughan for the Marlins. Washington is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET. Cleveland hosts Tampa Bay, with the Guardians turning to Gavin Williams to battle against the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot. The Guardians are a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8. New York plays at home against Boston, with Nestor Cortes, Jr. getting the ball for the Yankees to duel against Cooper Criswell for the Red Sox. The Yankees are a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Mariners turn to Bryce Miller to pitch against the Rangers’ Kumar Rocker, making his MLB debut. Seattle is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET. Frankie Montas takes the hill for the Brewers to face Hayden Birdsong for the Giants. Milwaukee is a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. 

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NBA Futures To Consider

by AAA Sports

Wednesday, Sep 11, 2024

A look at five NBA teams that have a good shot at hitting the Over (posted win totals in parenthesis):PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (21.5) – Books like the Blazers as the worst team in the league in Year 2 post-Lillard, but the roster just seems capable of finishing with close to 28-30 wins rather than the low 20s. Much depends on whether the Blazers can actually convince Deandre Ayton to be the player the Suns were convinced he could never be. If he shows like he’s ready to go full bore, Portland might trade backup Robert Williams. The backcourt Portland envisioned (Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson) never got rolling last season as Simons battled injuries. A motivated Ayton, a healthy backcourt, and a solid season from forward Jeremi Grant would add up to more than 21 wins.DETROIT PISTONS (24.5) – Shame that one of the Association’s flagship franchises has fallen so far, but the madness in Motor City might be coming to an end. No one figures the Pistons to lose 28 straight games again, and things would have to go completely south to end the year 2-15 again. There are lots of changes, primarily at the top where Monty Williams is out as HC and J.B. Bickerstaff is in. Bickerstaff will still have a young core, but the team did bring in some veterans  -- notably Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. -- who should help prevent long-losing streaks. The keys to the car still will be in the hands of Cade Cunningham, who signed a max deal off his rookie contract. If he improves, and he should, so will the Pistons.UTAH JAZZ (29.5) – Will the Jazz (31-51) backslide for the second straight season? Not likely, but the best Utah fans can probably hope for is a shot at the Play-In Tournament. Things kind of begin and end with PF Lauri Markkanen, who has signed long-term with the Jazz. The backcourt – Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson – are decent and go off every now and then. Utah also likes its top two draft picks – forward Cody Williams and center and Kyle Filipowski. But whether the Jazz are able to reverse the trend and move forward will depend a lot of improvement from one of two of their three 2023 first-round draft picks – Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, and Brice Sensabaugh.MIAMI HEAT (44.5) – Looks like Pat Riley has had it with Jimmy Butler, who sat out the Celtics playoff series and then said the Heat would have won if he had NOT sat out. If Butler wants to stay in Miami, he has to A. Play, B. Play well and C. Play a lot. No more holding back, if he wants another contract and hang in South Beach beyond next summer.  In fact, this might be the end of the relax-in-the-regular-season-and-go-at-it-when-the-playoffs mode in Miami.  Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro are all back, and a quick playoff exit (or no playoffs at all) will probably mean the end of the line for those three as a group.PHILADELPHIA 76ers (52.5) – Yes, that number is kind of high. But the talent is firmly in place in Philly, and there doesn’t seem to be a Plan B beyond stockpiling good players and hoping for the best. That might just work, with Joel Embiid joined by Paul George and Tyrese Maxey in what looks like a very solid Big Three. Much of the early part of the season will be devoted to Nick Nurse figuring out how to blend in a group of four veteran additions – Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, and Andre Drummond. Drummond’s presence will be of particular importance if Embiid shows up overweight with the intention of playing himself into shape.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/11/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 11, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Pirates tap Bailey Falter to face the Marlins’ Jonathan Bermudez. Pittsburgh is a -180 money-line favorite with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Cleveland Guardians travel to Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET. Matthew Boyd gets the ball for the Guardians to pitch against Davis Martin for the White Sox. Cleveland is a -225 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET. Sean Manaea takes the mound for the Mets to go against Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays. New York is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Texas Rangers at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks turn to Merrill Kelly to challenge the Rangers’ Cody Bradford. Arizona is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is at home against Tampa Bay with Zack Wheeler getting the ball for the Phillies to battle against Shane Bat for the Rays. The Philadelphia is a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Detroit hosts Colorado with the Tigers sending out Casey Mize to duel against the Rockies’ Tanner Gordon. The Tigers are a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves are in Washington to play the Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET. Max Fried takes the hill for the Braves to pitch against Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Atlanta is a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Yankees play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees turn to Luis Gil to face the Royals’ Cole Ragans. New York is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. Boston is at home against Baltimore with Nick Pivetta getting tapped by the Red Sox to challenge Dean Kremer for the Orioles. Minnesota hosts Los Angeles with the Twins with Zebby Matthews the starting pitcher taking on the Angels' Jack Kochanowicz. The Twins are a -205 money-line favorite with the total set at 8.5. Boston is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. St. Louis hosts Cincinnati with the Cardinals sending out Lance Lynn to go against a Reds’ starting pitcher yet to be named. The Cardinals are a -125 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros play at home against the Oakland A’s at 8:10 p.m. ET. Hunter Brown gets the ball for the Astros to duel against Joey Estes for the A’s. Houston is a -238 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the San Diego Padres at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Mariners tap Bryan Woo to battle against the Padres’ Michael King. Seattle is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers at 9:45 p.m. ET. Blake Snell takes the hill for the Giants to face Colin Rea for the Brewers. San Francisco is a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers tap Bobby Miller to pitch against the Cubs’ Jordan Wicks. Los Angeles is a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/10/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 10, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Philadelphia hosts Tampa Bay with Ranger Suarez getting the ball for the Phillies to face Taj Bradley for the Rays. The Phillies are a -170 money-line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Detroit plays at home against Colorado with the Tigers tapping Keider Montero to pitch against the Rockies’ Bradley Blalock. The Tigers are a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Pittsburgh is at home against Miami with Carmen Mlodzinski taking the hill for the Pirates to go against Adam Oller for the Marlins. The Pirates are a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET. Reynaldo Lopez gets sent out by the Braves to challenge MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. Atlanta is a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees turn to Marcus Stroman to battle against the Royals’ Seth Lugo. New York is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Mets play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET. David Peterson takes the mound for the Mets to duel against Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays. New York is a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Baltimore Orioles on TBS at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox tap Kutter Crawford to pitch against the Orioles’ Albert Suarez. Boston is a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET. Cleveland is in Cleveland with a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Guardians facing Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox. The Guardians are a -225 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota is at home against Los Angeles with Pablo Lopez taking the hill for the Twins to challenge Griffin Canning for the Angels. The Twins are a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds at 7:45 p.m. ET. The Cardinals send out Andre Pallante to go against the Reds’ Rhett Lowder. St. Louis is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the Oakland A’s at 8:10 p.m. ET. Spencer Arrighetti gets tapped by the Astros to battle against Osvaldo Bido for the A’s. Houston is a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. San Diego visits Seattle with the Padres turning to Yu Darvish to duel against the Mariners’ George Kirby. The Padres are a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Arizona is at home against Texas with Zac Gallen getting the ball for the Diamondbacks to pitch against Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers. The Diamondbacks are a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The Milwaukee Brewers play in San Francisco against the Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Brewers turn to Aaron Civale to face a Giants’ starting pitcher yet to be determined. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs at 10:10 p.m. ET. Yoshinobu Yamamoto leaves the injured list for the Dodgers to challenge Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Los Angeles is a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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UFC 306 Preview and Picks

by Will Rogers

Monday, Sep 09, 2024

UFC 306 - Noche UFC O'Malley vs Dvalishvili Saturday, September 14thThe Sphere - Las VegasThe UFC returns to Las Vegas this Saturday. This time, however, the fights won't be held at the UFC Apex. Nor will they be in a casino. Instead, for the first (and perhaps only) time ever, they will take place in The Sphere. It's an extra special event and the card is loaded with exciting fights. Known as UFC Noche, it'll be a celebration of Mexican and Latin American culture and competitors. The Main Event features bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley taking on number one contender Merab Dvalishvil. The co-Main Event sees Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko square off for the third time. Additionally, there are eight other fights. Let's take a closer look at the two biggest ones. The Main Event O'Malley vs DvalishviliO'Malley -1304.5 over -145 The bantamweight championship of the world will be up for grabs on Saturday. As of Monday, "Suga" Shane O'Malley, the champion, is a modest -130 favorite against Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili. If betting on the over 4.5 rounds, one has to lay somewhere in the -140 to -150 range. That line suggests that this one has a fairly strong chance of going the distance. Off six straight wins, O'Malley is now 18-1 for his career. His lone loss came against Marlon Vera in 2020. O'Malley avenged that loss by defeating Vera this past March. At 5-foot-11, the 29-year old champ is tall for a bantamweight. Suga is a very dangerous striker. Twelve of his 18 wins have been via KO/TKO. Five came by decision and one by submission. Off 10 straight wins, Dvalishvili (17-4) hasn't tasted defeat since 2018. At 5-foot-6, "The Machine" is giving up a lot of height to O'Malley. Nine of his past 10 fights, including each of his past three, have been decided by the judges. With most of O'Malley's victories coming by KO, it should be mentioned that Dvalishvili has never been knocked out. Three of his four losses have been decisions, the other was by submission.  Prediction: This should be an excellent fight. In my estimation, it's too close to call. Given Dvalishvili's tendency to go the scorecards and the fact that he has never been knocked out, the Over 4.5 rounds looks like the way to go. The Co-Main Event  Grasso vs. ShevchenkoGrasso -1304.5 over -170Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko (24-3-1) and Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) will be meeting for a third time. Once again, the women’s flyweight title will be on the line. Shevchenko was a massive favorite (like -900 or -1000) when she first faced Grasso, last March. Grasso shocked Shevchenko and the world with one of the biggest upsets that the UFC has seen. It was a fourth round (face-crank) submission victory. Shevchenko was still favored for the rematch. The -165 line was much lower that it was for the first fight though. That was exactly one year ago, at the first Noche UFC. That one resulted in a draw. This time, it's Grasso who is favored. If she can win, she will be considered the undisputed champion. However, if Bullet can win, it'll be 1-1-1. That might very well set up a fourth and final fight between these two. Shevchenko is now 36 years old while Grasso is 31. They both stand at 5-foot-5. Ten of Grasso's 16 victories (and two of her three losses) have come by decision. Shevchenko has eight KO's, seven submissions and eight decision victories. Prediction: This will be another war but when the dust settles, I expect Shevchenko to score the minor upset and reclaim her belt. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/09/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 09, 2024

The Monday sports card features NFL and  MLB action. Week 1 in the NFL concludes with one game. The San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets on ABC, ESPN, and the ESPN2 Manningcast at 8:15 p.m. ET. The 49ers finished the regular season with a 12-5 record before beating Green Bay and Detroit in the NFC playoffs. They eventually lost to Kansas City by a 25-22 score in the Super Bowl last February. They finished the season with a 14-6 record. The Jets settled with a 7-10 record last season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers lasted four plays last season in their opening Monday night game against Buffalo before his season-ending Achilles' tear. He returns to the field for Monday Night Football 362 days later to complete his debut with the Jets. San Francisco is a 4-point favorite with the total set at 43.5 (all odds from DraftKings).Major League Baseball has nine games on its schedule. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Atlanta plays at home against Cincinnati with the Braves tapping Charlie Morton to face the Reds’ Nick Martinez. The Braves are a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Philadelphia is at home against Tampa Bay with Cristopher Sanchez taking the ball for the Phillies to pitch against Cole Sulser for the Rays. The Phillies are a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Pittsburgh hosts Miami with Paul Skenes on the mound for the Pirates to challenge Valente Bellozo for the Marlins. The Pirates are a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.The New York Yankees play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees turn to Carlos Rodon to go against the Royals’ Brady Singer. New York is a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Mets travel to Toronto to play the Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET. Paul Blackburn gets the ball for the Mets to battle against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Blue Jays. New York is a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox tap Bryan Bello to duel against the Orioles’ Cade Povich. Boston is a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5.Two MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. Minnesota hosts Los Angeles with David Festa taking the hill for the Twins to pitch against Reid Detmers for the Angels. The Twins are a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cleveland plays in Chicago with the Guardians turning to Joey Cantillo for the Guardians to face a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the White Sox. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers send out Walker Buehler to challenge the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. Los Angeles is a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and NFL Previews and Odds - 09/08/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 08, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NFL and  MLB action. Week 1 in the NFL continues with 13 games. Eight NFL games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Vikings travel to New York to play the Giants as a 1.5-point road favorite with the total set at 41. The Miami Dolphins host the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. The New Orleans Saints play at home against the Carolina Panthers as a 4-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Atlanta Falcons are at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 42. The Cincinnati Bengals host the New England Patriots as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 41. The Buffalo Bills play at home against the Arizona Cardinals as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. The Houston Texans play in Indianapolis against the Colts as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 48.5. The Chicago Bears are at home against the Tennessee Titans as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Two NFL games start at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Chargers host the Las Vegas Raiders as a 3-point favorite with a total of 40. The Seattle Seahawks play at home against the Denver Broncos as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 42. Two more NFL games begin at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home against the Washington Commanders as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. The Cleveland Browns host the Dallas Cowboys as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 41. The Detroit Lions play at home against the Los Angeles Rams on NBC at 8:20 PM ET for Sunday Night Football. The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Tampa Bay Rays on Roku at 12:05 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/ under of 7.5. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox host the Chicago White Sox as a -285 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -278 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5 The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Miami to play the Marlins as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Kansas City Royals are at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees play in Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 2:35 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Detroit Tigers are in Oakland to play the A’s at 4:07 p.m. ET. Two more MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cleveland Guardians as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the Houston Astros at home playing against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Astros are a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.

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#1 NFL Draft Pick Quarterback Debuts

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Sep 07, 2024

#1 NFL Draft Pick Quarterback Debuts  With the 2024 #1 NFL Draft Pick Caleb Williams set to open the season as the starter for the Chicago Bears, it is worth examining the recent history of top draft picks in the NFL. Chicago hosts Tennessee this weekend as Williams and the Bears look to break a negative trend for top picks.  Quarterbacks were not always valued the way they are today as a quarterback was not the #1 pick in the NFL draft until the league’s ninth draft in 1944, when Notre Dame’s Heisman Trophy Winner Angelo Bertelli went 1st to the Boston Yanks. It wasn’t until the 1950s that quarterbacks were more commonly picked in the top spot, but it didn’t become an expected annual occurrence until the 2000s.  In 1998, Peyton Manning went #1 to the Colts, and he was the first #1 pick at quarterback since Drew Bledsoe in 1993. Manning obviously went on to have an amazing career and can be considered the tipping point where the #1 pick being a quarterback became a regularity, as counting Manning, 20 of 27 #1 picks since 1998 have been quarterbacks.  Manning started in Week 1 of his rookie season and took a 15-24 loss to Miami with the Colts, throwing for 302 yards but having three interceptions and few #1 picks have fared well on the scoreboard in Week 1 starts of their rookie seasons. John Elway did win as a rookie in Week 1 in 1983, but his situation was different, as he forced a trade from Indianapolis to Denver, joining a stronger team for his debut.  From Troy Aikman in 1989 to Bryce Young in 2023, 15 different #1 draft pick quarterbacks have started in Week 1, and those teams are 1-13-1 S/U and 2-13 ATS. In that time frame there have been seven other #1 draft pick quarterbacks that did not start until a later week in their rookie season and those teams have gone 1-6 S/U and 1-6 ATS.  The only quarterback since John Elway to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft and win while starting in Week 1 of their rookie season is David Carr, who started in Week 1 for the franchise debut of the Houston Texans in 2002. Carr wound up 23-56 as a starter in his career but he did throw two touchdowns while completing just 10 passes and being sacked six times as Houston won 19-10 hosting Dallas as an 8-point underdog in the opener.  The previous season Michael Vick led Atlanta to a 20-13 win in his first NFL start, but Vick was eased into that role and did not start until Week 9, having seen the field in four different games prior to his first start. Carr is the last #1 draft pick quarterback to win his first start in any week, even with 15 quarterbacks drafted #1 from 2003 to 2023.  Kyler Murray did lead Arizona to a tie in his first NFL start in Week 1 of 2019, as Arizona matched Detroit 27-27 even after falling behind 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Murray’s start was a spread winner with Arizona +3 in that game, and he provides the lone ATS win among the NFL starting debuts of the past 15 #1 draft pick quarterbacks. Those teams went 0-14-1 S/U and 1-13-1 ATS from Carson Palmer with Cincinnati in 2003 to Young with Carolina last season. The push belongs to Cam Newton in 2011, starting Week 1 for Carolina at Arizona, with the Panthers losing 28-21 while closing at +7.  #1 draft pick quarterbacks playing as a favorite in Week 1 like Williams and the Bears will be to start the 2024 NFL season is a very rare occurrence. The only two quarterbacks drafted #1 that were on favorites as Week 1 starters going back to 1983 were Jameis Winston with Tampa Bay in 2015 and Trevor Lawrence in 2021 with the Jaguars. Tampa Bay behind Winston lost 42-14 in that 2015 season opener hosting Tennessee and closing at -3. Jacksonville lost 37-21 as a -3.5-point road favorite in the 2021 opener at Houston. Jared Goff and the Rams were a -1 favorite in his first start in 2016 but that was a Week 11 game in which the Rams also lost 14-10. Vick was also a favorite in his Week 9 start in 2001 with Atlanta winning 20-13 as a -4.5-point favorite over Dallas.  There is a great deal of enthusiasm for Williams and the Bears this season and unquestionably Williams has more offensive talent around him than most #1 draft pick rookies generally have. Chicago was also 7-10 last season for a more competitive record than most teams that hold the #1 pick as that selection was acquired via a 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers, landing in a different situation than many of the top draft picks. Chicago is priced as a -3.5-point favorite Sunday hosting the Titans as Williams and the Bears look to break the recent negative trend for #1 draft pick quarterbacks. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/07/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 07, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action.Week 2 in NCAAF college football continues with 47 games between FBS opponents. Nine of these NCAAF games kick off at noon ET, with three games on major national television. Kansas State travels to Tulane on ESPN as an 8.5-point road favorite with the total set at 47 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Texas plays at Michigan on Fox as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5. Oklahoma State hosts Arkansas on ABC as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 61.5. Eighteen NCAAF games between FBS opponents start in the 3:30 pm ET to 6:30 pm ET window, with three games on major national television. Notre Dame plays at home against Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Utah is at home against Baylor on Fox as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55. Iowa hosts Iowa State on CBS as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 35.5.Twenty NCAAF games between FBS opponents that begin at 7:00 p.m. ET or later complete the Saturday football card. Alabama plays at home against South Florida on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET as a 31-point favorite with a total of 64.5. Two NCAAF games on major national television start at 7:30 p.m. ET. Tennessee battles North Carolina State at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on ABC as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 61. Nebraska is at home against Colorado on NBC as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. Washington State hosts Texas Tech on Fox at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with a total of 66.5. Arizona State plays at home against Mississippi State on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 59.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home against the Washington Nationals in the opening game of their doubleheader at 1:35 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees is in Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite. The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays at 4:05 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Oakland A’s play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets are at home against the Cincinnati Reds. The Houston Astros host the Arizona Diamondbacks as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies visit Miami to play the Marlins as a -238 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Pirates play at home against the Nationals in the nightcap of their doubleheader at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies at 7:10 p.m. ET. Three MLB games start at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners play in St. Louis against the Cardinals as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two more MLB games are featured in Fox’s regional coverage. The Minnesota Twins are in Kansas City to play the Royals as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Chicago White Sox as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:20 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cleveland Guardians at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Week 14 in the Canadian Football League concludes with three games. The Ottawa Redblacks play at home against the Toronto Argonauts at 1:00 p.m. ET in a pick ‘em contest with a total of 51.5. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are at home against the Saskatchewan Roughriders at 3:00 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48. The Edmonton Elks host the Calgary Stampeders at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 51.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/06/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 06, 2024

The Friday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action. Week 1 in the NFL continues with one game. The Philadelphia Eagles challenge the Green Bay Packers in the NFL International Series at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Peacock at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Eagles are a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 49.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Week 2 in NCAAF college football kicks off with two games between FBS opponents. SMU hosts BYU on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. ET as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Northwestern plays at home against Duke on FS1 at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 37.5.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees travel to Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Washington Nationals at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Miami against the Marlins as a -230 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5 The New York Mets are at home against the Cincinnati Reds as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox host the Chicago White Sox as a -270 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:20 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals host the Minnesota Twins as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals are at home against the Seattle Mariners at 8:15 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Detroit Tigers visit the Oakland A’s as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cleveland Guardians at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Week 14 in the Canadian Football League kicks off with one game. The Montreal Alouettes play at home against the British Columbia Lions on the CBS Sports Network at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5.

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