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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/05/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 05, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins at 6:10 PM ET. Tanner Bibee gets the ball for the Guardians to pitch against Sonny Gray for the Twins. Both teams are priced at -110, with the total set at 8  (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET. The Brewers send out Corbin Burnes to face a Pirates starting pitcher yet to be named. Caesars lists the over/under at 10. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Los Angeles plays at Miami, with Clayton Kershaw going out to the mound for the Dodgers to go against Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins. The Dodgers are a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Seattle visits Cincinnati, with the Mariners turning to Bryce Miller to battle against the Reds’ Connor Phillips. The Mariners are a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. Tampa Bay plays at home against Boston, with Zach Eflin being tapped by the Rays to go against Sutter Crawford for the Red Sox. The Rays are a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. New York is at home against Detroit, with the Yankees sending out Gerrit Cole to duel against the Tigers’ Alex Faldo. The Yankees are a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. New York plays in Washington, with Jose Quintana getting the start for the Mets against Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. The Mets are a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals are in Atlanta to play the Braves at 7:20 PM ET. The Cardinals turn to Miles Mikolas to face a Braves starting pitcher yet to be determined. Two MLB games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Chicago hosts San Francisco on TBS, with the Cubs sending out Kyle Hendricks to pitch against the Giants’ Ryan Walker. The Cubs are a -148 money-line favorite, with Caesars listing the over/under at 9. Kansas City plays at home against Chicago, with Brady Singer taking the ball for the Royals to go against the Dylan Cease for the White Sox. The Royals are a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Houston Astros travel to Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 PM ET. The Astros tap Framber Valdez to battle against the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi. Houston is a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. Dean Kremer goes to the mound for the Orioles to face Reid Detmers for the Angels. Baltimore is a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Three more games complete the MLB card at 9:40 PM ET. Arizona is at home against Colorado, with the Diamondbacks turning to Brandon Pfaadt to duel against the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. The Diamondbacks are a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Toronto visits Oakland with Chris Bassitt taking the mound for the Blue Jays to face Ken Waldichuk for the A’s. The Blue Jays are a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Philadelphia plays in San Diego, with the Phillies sending out Michael Lorenzen to go against the Padres’ Pedro Avila. The Phillies are a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.

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NFL Rookie of the Year Predictions

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Sep 04, 2023

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Anthony Richardson (+800)Standing 6’4 and weighing 245 lbs, the 4th overall pick is comparable to Cam Newton and may have an even stronger arm than the latter. At Florida, Richardson struggled with accuracy and decision making, yet NFL scouts were willing to overlook those aspects and bet on arm talent. Josh Allen was once in those same shoes. Richardson is in a better team situation than the other QBs taken ahead of him with the Colts sporting more weapons than the fully rebuilding Panthers and Texans. Indianapolis also has the third easiest schedule. Jonathan Taylor continues his feud with the Indy front office, which puts more pressure on the rookie QB to carry the offensive load. Fortunately, dual threat QBs have done very well in years past (Jackson, Hurts, Fields) and Richardson has a solid WR1 in Michael Pittman to rely on. Bijan Robinson (+250) is favored to win this award, however, running back is the most injury prone skill position. Jaxson Smith-Njigba (+2000) underwent wrist surgery and will possibly miss the first few weeks, seeming to open the door further for Richardson.  Defensive Rookie of the Year - Will Anderson (+500)Being the highest picked defensive player in the draft put hefty expectations on 21 year old Will Anderson. At 6’4 243, he ran a 4.6 40 yard dash, justifying such draft capital on a physical specimen. Make no mistake, Houston will be awful, likely having one of the worst defenses in the NFL no matter how well Anderson plays. With it being hard for average fans to name more than a few defensive starters, Will Anderson will be the lone bright spot for the Texans and benefit from ample opportunity to accumulate a nice rookie statline. He averaged nearly a sack a game while at Alabama, even while having multiple other pro players on the roster. The race for DROY is very wide open entering the year, with multiple DBs looking to follow Sauce Gardners rookie winning performance. Other defensive lineman could win the award as well but Anderson has the most solidified workload of any Rookie and being such a notable pick gives him a headstart on the rest of the field even before the season has begun. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/04/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 04, 2023

The Monday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action. Week 1 in college football concludes with one game. Clemson travels to Duke on ESPN at 8 PM ET as a 13-point road favorite, with the total set at 55.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. Cole Ragans goes to the mound for the Royals to pitch against Jesse Scholtens for the White Sox. Kansas City is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago Cubs play at home against the San Francisco Giants at 2:20 PM ET. The Cubs turn to Justin Steele to face the Giants’ Logan Webb. Chicago is a -142 money-line favorite. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Houston Astros at 4:05 PM ET. Andrew Heaney gets the ball for the Rangers to battle against J.P. France for the Astros. Texas is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Toronto Blue Jays play on the road in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays tap Jose Berrios to go against the A’s Ken Waldichuk. Toronto is a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. Arizona hosts Colorado, with Merrill Kelly taking the mound to battle against Paul Lambert for the Rockies. The Diamondbacks are a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Tampa Bay plays at home against Boston, with the Rays sending out Aaron Civale to pitch against the Red Sox’s Brayan Bello. The Rays are a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Seattle travels to Cincinnati with Bryan Woo pitching for the Mariners against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Reds. The Minnesota Twins play in Cleveland against the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET. The Twins turn to Pablo Lopez to dues against Lucas Giolito for the Guardians. Minnesota is a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET. Corbin Burnes takes the mound for the Brewers to face a Pirates starting pitcher yet to be named. The Philadelphia Phillies are in San Diego to play the Padres at 6:40 PM ET. The Phillies send out Taijuan Walker to duel against the Padres’ Rich Hill. Philadelphia is a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels on FS1 at 9:38 PM ET. Grayson Rodriguez gets the ball for the Orioles to face Kenny Rosenberg for the Angels. Baltimore is a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Week 13 in the Canadian Football League concludes with two games on the CBS Sports Network. The Toronto Argonauts play in Hamilton against the Tiger-Cats at 3:30 PM ET. The Argonauts are a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 50. The Calgary Stampeders are at home against the Edmonton Elks at 7 PM ET. The Stampeders are a 4-point favorite with a total of 46.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 03, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action. Week 1 in college football continues with three games between FBS opponents. Rutgers hosts Northwestern on CBS at 12 PM ET as a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 39.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Oregon State travels to San Jose State on CBS at 3:30 PM ET as a 16.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Louisiana State battles Florida State at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida on ABC as a 2-point favorite with a total of 56.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 12:10 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Milwaukee against the Braves at 1:05 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Miami Marlins are in Washington to play the Nationals at 1:35 PM ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Seattle Mariners visit New York to play the Mets at 1:40 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play at Kansas City against the Royals. The Detroit Tigers are in Chicago to face the White Sox as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 2:15 PM ET. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Minnesota Twins at 2:35 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET as a -238 money-line road favorite with a total of 12. The Los Angeles Angels play in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Four more games start at 4:10 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Cleveland against the Guardians. The Atlanta Braves play in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 9.5. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the New York Yankees on ESPN for Sunday Night Baseball at 7:10 PM ET as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Week 13 in the Canadian Football League begins with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers visit the Saskatchewan Roughriders on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 47.5. Matchweek 4 in the English Premier League concludes with three matches. Two matches begin at 9 AM ET. Crystal Palace hosts Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal plays at home against Manchester United on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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NFL Futures Wager: Los Angeles Chargers to Win the 2023 Super Bowl

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Sep 03, 2023

The 2023 NFL Season kicks off this Thursday, and there will be a lot of contenders for the Super Bowl trophy this season.  In the AFC, the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Ravens, Jets, Chargers, Jaguars and Dolphins all have an excellent shot to make the playoffs, and contend for the title.  The list is shorter in the NFC, but the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys and even the Lions merit serious consideration.  All 12 of these teams have odds shorter than 30-1, with the Chiefs (+600), Eagles (+750) and Bills (+900) rating as the clubs with the best percentage chance.This season, I'm going to take a team with considerably longer odds.  And that's the Los Angeles Chargers, at 25-1 odds (currently available at DraftKings, PointsBet and BetRivers).  When we last saw Brandon Staley's men, they collapsed in the Wild Card round against Trevor Lawrence & the Jaguars.  The Chargers were staked to a 27-0 lead, then improbably lost, 31-30, when they managed just 3 points after intermission, and gave up 11 points in the final 5:25, including a 36-yard game-deciding field goal as time expired.  Many called for coach Staley's head after that defeat, but Dean Spanos retained his coach.  In the Draft, the Chargers addressed a major need when they selected WR Quentin Johnson from TCU.  The 6'4" rookie (with an 82" wingspan) has impressed in camp with his ability to make explosive plays downfield.  Last season, the Chargers were injury-ravaged, to say the least.  WR Keenan Allen missed 7 games with a lingering hamstring issue; LB Joey Bosa was injured in Week 3, and suited up just five times.  Mike Williams played 11 full games, but missed the Playoff game vs. Jacksonville.  Even QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilege in Week 2, and also tore his labrum in his left shoulder (which was surgically repaired after the season).  He did play through his injuries, though, and finished 2nd in yardage (4739) and 3rd in completion percentage (68.2%).  Notwithstanding a lot of bad injury luck, the Chargers still had a good season, and made the Playoffs.  I expect them to take major strides this season, in Herbert's 4th season as a pro.A primary reason I like the Chargers this season is that they brought in Kellen Moore to be offensive coordinator.  In his 4-year tenure (2019-2022) as the OC for the Dallas Cowboys, his offense ranked among the Top 4 in the NFL in productivity.  With Austin Ekeler in the backfield, Herbert under center, and a trio of wide receivers, Moore has all the talent he needs to make this offense hum.  The Chargers defense is also solid, and will get a boost if ex-Pro Bowler JC Jackson returns to his 2021 form.  Jackson was another of the injured Chargers last season, and definitely underwhelmed in his limited action on the field.  He's targeting a September return, and hopes are high he plays like he did in New England.As I stated above, this season is as wide-open as I can remember.  And because it's so wide-open, I prefer to take a longer shot, rather than a team like, say, Buffalo with shorter odds.  It's not that I think Los Angeles is a better team than Buffalo.  But at 25-1 odds, I like its value more.  And in the past, I've hit some big futures tickets (Virginia at 22-1 odds to win the NCAA Basketball title; the Washington Nationals at 18-1 odds to win the World Series).  Take the Chargers to win the 2023 Super Bowl.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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NFL MVP Predictions

by ASA, Inc.

Saturday, Sep 02, 2023

Justin Herbert (+1000) Lots of experts picked Herbert to break out last season after he threw for 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2021. Unfortunately, injuries to the WR room along with a stale offensive game plan centered around short passes, limited the Chargers young star. Austin Ekeler vulturing numerous redzone touchdowns played a huge part in why Herbert’s stats took a negative turn last year as well. GM Tom Telesco addressed some needs this offseason that will put their QB back into the MVP conversation for 2023. The hiring of Kellen Moore will open up Los Angeles’ deep passing game allowing Herbert to showcase his superhuman arm talent, and first round WR talent Quentin Johnston adds some much needed depth to a stacked but fragile WR room. Despite a disappointing 2022, Herbert still finished 2nd in passing yards with over 4700. If some positive touchdown regression returns to the Chargers QB, he will be in line for almost 5k yards with near 40 touchdowns, which is right in the ballpark of Patrick Mahomes MVP stats from last year (5250/41/12). Soon, Herbert will take the next step to a truly elite QB, similar to how Burrow and Allen have the past few years.  Trevor Lawrence (+1600)As a former number one overall pick in 2021, Lawrence has not lived up to expectations, yet he is not fully to blame, being on a lackluster Jaguars team the last two seasons. Finally, Jacksonville seems to be a stable organization, and even got Lawrence a shiny new weapon in Calvin Ridley. Coming off a solid year throwing over 4k yards, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, Lawrence is in a great spot to solidify himself as a top 10 QB. Passing volume is due to increase with the addition of Ridley and there is no question the former number one pick has the arm talent to compete with the elite QBs in the NFL. A realistic statline is 4800 yards, 35 touchdowns and under 10 interceptions. Jacksonville has the 10th easiest strength of schedule and is favored to win the AFC South, maybe the worst division in football. A great team record along with stellar individual stats are what's needed to win an MVP. Despite being a long shot, Lawrence has an opportunity to harness both this season and compete with the likes of the heavier MVP favorites. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 02, 2023

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action. Week 1 in college football continues with 32 games between FBS opponents. Seven nationally televised NCAAF games kick off at noon ET. SMU hosts Louisiana Tech on ESPNU as a 20.5-point favorite, with the total set at 66 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Tennessee battles Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on ABC as a 28-point favorite with an over/under of 56. Oklahoma plays Arkansas State on ESPN as a 36-point favorite with a total of 58. Iowa is at home against Utah State on FS1 as a 23.5-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. Liberty hosts Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network as a 9-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Michigan plays at home against East Carolina on Peacock as a 36.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. TCU is at home against Colorado on Fox as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 63. Six college football games are on national television starting at 3:30 PM ET. Auburn hosts Massachusetts on ESPN as a 35-point favorite with an over/under of 51.5. Wisconsin plays at home against Buffalo on FS1 as a 28-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Western Kentucky is at home against South Florida on the CBS Sports Network as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 70. Washington hosts Boise State on ABC as a 14-point favorite with a total of 58.5. Texas plays at home against Rice on Fox as a 35.5-point favorite with an over/under of 59. Ohio State travels to Indiana on CBS as a 30.5-point road favorite with a total of 59. California is at North Texas on ESPNU at 4 PM ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 54. Four nationally televised college football games begin at 7 PM ET. Washington State visits Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 54.5. UTSA plays at Houston on FS1 as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 60. Texas A&M hosts New Mexico on ESPN as a 38-point favorite with a total of 49. Army is at UL-Monroe on the NFL Network as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 47. Three more NCAA-F games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Texas Tech plays at Wyoming on CBS as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. Penn State is at home against West Virginia on NBC as a 20.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49. South Carolina plays at home against North Carolina on ABC as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 63.5. Tulane hosts South Alabama on ESPNU at 8 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. UCLA plays at home against Coastal Carolina on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 66.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 4:05 PM ET. The Los Angeles Angels play in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Cleveland against the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs visit Cincinnati to play the Reds at 6:40 PM ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play in Kansas City against the Royals as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The Seattle Mariners are in New York to play the Mets as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago White Sox are at home against the Detroit Tigers as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games start at 7:15 PM ET. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two games are featured on Fox in regional television coverage. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies visit Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Colorado against the Rockies as a -185 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 12. The Baltimore Orioles are in Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants at 8:40 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves travel to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers at 9:10 PM ET.Week 13 in the Canadian Football League begins with one game. The British Columbia Lions play in Montreal against the Alouettes at 7 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 47.5. Matchweek 4 in the English Premier League continues with six matches. Everton plays at Sheffield United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2 (all soccer odds from DraftKings). Four more EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Brentford plays at home against Bournemouth as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Tottenham is at Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Chelsea is at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City hosts Fulham as a -2 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at Brighton and Hove Albion on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. 

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The Three NFL Coach of the Year Bets to Make Now

by Oskeim Sports

Friday, Sep 01, 2023

With Week 1 of the NFL just seven days away, it’s time to take a look at the NFL Coach of the Year bets to make right now. The current NFL COTY is New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll. He took a 4-13 Giants team, led them to a 9-7-1 record, and earned a berth in the NFC playoffs as a wild card. Which NFL coach is poised to do the same in 2023? There are a few, but in betting the NFL COTY, there is a certain profile that fits the bill. Understanding that profile leads us to three candidates to bet on before Week 1 of the 2023 season starts.  Wins Are KeyIf you look at the past ten NFL COTYs, all but one - that was Daboll last year - had double-digit wins. The NFL Coach of the Year is going to have a high winning percentage. Over the past decade, the COTY has won an average of 12.1 games. It’s actually closer to 13 if we base it on the 17-game schedule that the league now plays. Daboll had nine wins last year, but the nine guys before him all won at least 11.  Seven of the ten also won a division title. Five even received a first-round playoff bye. The bottom line is that winning is king when it comes to the NFL COTY. Making ProgressIt’s the reason why they were hired in the first place. They need to make improvements and each of the last 10 COTYs outperformed their team’s previous season. Most of them did so significantly. The average COTY team improved from 6.9 wins to 12.1 wins the following season, winning 5.2 games more on average. Most of the COTY teams had preseason win totals between 7.5 and 9.5. Most of these teams, who were thought to be .500 teams at best, went on to exceed expectations.  Exceeding ExpectationsSpeaking of exceeding expectations, our most recent COTYs didn’t just make progress, they performed well beyond what any of the so-called experts had anticipated. These surprise teams tend to garner more votes when it comes time for the COTY voting. Six of the last ten COTYs won at least 4.5 games more than predicted according to Vegas win total lines. The projected win total for the last 10 COTY winners was 8.8. All 10 won at least two more games than their projected win total. Ideal NFL COTY CandidateBreaking it down then, the perfect NFL COTY candidate is one who wins a ton of games. Preferably, the coach wins more than the previous season. Typically, the COTY is going to come from a team that had a losing record the previous season. He’ll likely need 10-plus wins and preferably a playoff spot.  Keep in mind that the award typically does not go to the favorite. The last eight NFL COTYs all started the season at +1800 or higher. Six of the previous 12 winners were first-year head coaches and five of the last seven were offensive guys. Your 2023 NFL COTY Candidates to Bet Now  Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) +2000: McDaniel enters his second season off a pretty strong debut. The Dolphins won nine games. He’s an offensive guy who will have a healthy Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and plenty of weapons on offense. He also hired veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to shore up the defense.  Miami has a win total of 9.5. McDaniel will need double-digit wins and a playoff berth. Both are doable with the Dolphins schedule. And, McDaniel is nowhere near the favorite here.  Arthur Smith (Falcons) +1400: Smith will play in what is likely the weakest division in football. He’s another offensive-minded guy who has developed quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill and Desmond Ridder last season. Carolina is young and inexperienced. Tampa Bay doesn’t have Tom Brady and the Saints are in the midst of a rebuild. The Falcons are talented - Kyle Pitts and Drake London - on offense and they made some moves in the offseason on defense. He’s not a first-year candidate, but he fits the other criteria and he’s priced at +1400.  DeMeco Ryans (Texans) +2500: Here’s the guy who is worth at least a small bet. Ryans is a first-year head coach. He’ll have the benefit of playing six games in the weakest division in the AFC (the South). The Colts have a new head coach too and the Titans will struggle with a weak offensive line. Jacksonville is solid on offense but weak defensively. Houston will surprise some people with a fairly well-rounded and deep roster. They benefit from having the schedule of one of the weakest teams in the league last year. The Texans won just three games last year. If Ryans can do what Daboll did a year ago, this bet makes for a nice payout.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 01, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and EPL action. Week 1 in college football continues with four games. Two games kick off at 7 PM ET. Miami (FL) hosts Miami (OH) as a 16.5-point favorite, with the total set at 45.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Michigan State plays at home against Central Michigan on FS1 as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Louisville travels to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Cardinals are a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Stanford travels to Hawaii on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET. The Cardinal is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs visit Cincinnati to play the Reds in the opening game of their doubleheader at 1:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Cubs are a -115 money-line road favorite in the nightcap at 6:40 PM ET.The Miami Marlins play in Washington against the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners are in New York to play the Mets on Apple TV+ as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians on Apple TV+ as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Five MLB games start at 8:05 PM ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Boston Red Sox play in Kansas City against the Royals as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Detroit Tigers visit Chicago to play the White Sox as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees as a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5.The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 8:15 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 12.5. Three MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. The San Francisco Giants are in San Diego to play the Padres. The Baltimore Orioles play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Angels are in Oakland to play the A’s as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves visit Los Angeles to play the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 4 in the English Premier League begins with one match. West Ham United plays at Luton Town on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 2.5.

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College Football 2023-23 Preview, Part Two -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Part One focused on the 14 FBS teams that competed in Week 0. Part Two continues with the FBS teams that debut on Thursday, August 31st, and Friday, September 1st. KENT STATE: Just how much of a drop will the Golden Flashes endure with only four starters returning from a 5-7 team from last season? The offense has been completely gutted as they lost all 11 starters. The defense lost 10 of the top 16 in their rotation last year. While many Power-Five programs poach from the Mid-American Conference, they were hit the hardest with 18 players transferring away — and they lost their head coach Sean Lewis who decided the offensive coordinator job at Colorado was a better gig. First-year head coach Kenny Burns is trying his best to find players in the portal for a team that outgained their conference opponents by +18.0 net YPG last season (with a 4-4 record). Perhaps returning production numbers should be obsolete in the transfer portal era, but it sure seems ominous that the Golden Flashes return only 19% of their production on offense and 6% of their production on defense.CENTRAL FLORIDA: Can the Knights stay competitive with the elite teams in the Big 12? Third-year head coach Gus Malzahn continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal for the Knights as they enter this Power-Five conference this season. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team that finished 9-5 after a 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl. They have a former Power-Five conference quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee (previously transferred from Ole Miss) who should be back to full health after battling with injuries last season for the Knights. But this team has also lost several important starters to the transfer portal as well, making the chemistry of this new group a question. NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Will the Wolfpack pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator? Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons. CONNECTICUT: Can head coach Jim Mora continue to defy expectations in his second year with the Huskies? At first glance, bettors will identify that four of their six victories came against weak opponents: Central Connecticut State, FIU, Boston College, and UMass. The Huskies got outgained by -77 YPG despite their 6-7 record — and they only gained more than 5.3 Yards-Per-Play in three of their 13 contests. But 17 starters return from this team that should improve in the former Atlanta Falcons’ coach's second season — and they added plenty of transfers so the talent base is better with another year of development.                       NEBRASKA: Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan.MINNESOTA: P.J. Fleck has established a great culture with the Golden Gophers as he begins his seventh year as the head coach of the program — but does he have enough high-end talent that fits in with his vision? He has assembled a roster that can go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights regarding size — but the question remains regarding the overall athleticism of the team. They ranked 113th in the FBS in sacks last year — and they are thin at cornerback this season while banking on the transfer portal. The floor for pretty high for this group that has 13 starters back from their 9-4 team that beat Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl — but how high can the ceiling be?     FLORIDA: How far has the talent level fallen after second-year head coach Billy Napier tries to undo the damage in recruiting the program endured in the five seasons when Dan Mullen was running the program? The talent on defense has not been the same for years. Florida ranked 96th in the nation by allowing 411.0 total YPG — and they allowed 30 or more points in six of their losses. They lost their top five tacklers from last season as well. The Gators finished last season on a three-game losing streak. They lost several players to the NFL including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Napier brought in senior Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to be his starting quarterback. The reports were that he was shaky in the spring — and he is playing behind an offensive line that lost four starters to either the NFL or the transfer portal. The wide receiving unit lost three of their top four players from last season. UTAH: Can sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising regain his form after suffering a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl? He left the game with the score tied at 14-14 with Penn State — but the Nittany Lions outscored the Utes by a 21-7 margin the rest of the way for their 35-21 victory. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions have a loaded roster once again with 16 starters back. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. But to hang with the dynamic offenses of the top-tier Pac-12 opponents, this team probably needs Rising at full strength. MIAMI (OH): Can fifth-year QB Brett Gabbert regain his form of 2021? He only started four games last year after suffering a broken collarbone to his non-throwing shoulder in the season opener. The RedHawks ranked 112th and 121st in the nation last year by scoring 20.2 PPG and averaging 305.6 YPG. They ranked 117th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. Two years ago, Gabbert passed for 2648 yards with 26 touchdown passes and just six interceptions with the RedHawks scoring 28.9 PPG and averaging 423.1 YPG. On the other side of the ball, this could be the best defense in head coach Chuck Martin’s ten years with the program. The RedHawks return nine starters, 11 of the 14 players with at least 300 snaps last year, and 17 of their top 20 tacklers from the group that allowed only 22.6 PPG, ranking 34th in the nation. MIAMI (FL): Should second-year head coach Mario Cristobal be commended for hiring seven new assistant coaches including both a new offensive and defensive coordinator — or should he be criticized for the numerous hires last year that did not work out? Cristobal returned to the Hurricanes where he was a starting offensive lineman in the Jimmy Johnson/Dennis Erickson glory days to much fanfare last season after signing a ten-year, $80 million contract. But the team finished only 5-7 with a 3-5 record in the ACC with those conference opponents outgaining them by 68 YPG. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and defensive coordinator Kevin Steele had good reputations entering their jobs last year — now Cristobal is selling the narrative that they were the problem. Cristobal is recruiting well — but talent has not really been the problem for this program in the last decade or so (especially under head coach Mark Richt). The Hurricanes are 1-10 in bowl games since 2006 — and that cannot be blamed on last year’s assistant coaches.CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Was their disappointing 4-8 season last year a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program? This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters return on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans thrived by using the transfer portal in their 11-2 season two years ago — but are they now losing in the transfer window? The concern about relying on transfer players as opposed to original recruits who are brought up in the system is that the short-term fix may sacrifice the value of culture. Fourth-year head coach Mel Tucker watched his starting quarterback Payton Thorne and his top wide receiver Keon Coleman transfer out of the program after spring practice. The culture that is being nurtured in East Lansing has to be questioned under the leadership of the guy who spurned Colorado in the February after his first season there — and who was able to coax the Michigan State administration to grant him a 10-year, $95 million contract after that 11-2 campaign in 2021. Tucker brought in another 15 transfers this season, but these may simply be retreads of players who failed to succeed at other programs. Tucker only has a 23-21 record as a head coach — take away the ’21 season (and striking gold with the Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III in the transfer portal) and his Spartans are just 7-12.  And by the way, his team started a riot in the tunnel against Michigan players after their 29-7 loss last October. Culture …LOUISVILLE: How close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returns to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He will install his version of an Air Raid attack — and he has brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels. GEORGIA TECH: The Yellow Jackets had a 4-4 record after Brent Key took over as the interim head coach last season — Was this a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? The team seemed to play harder under Key while committing fewer mental mistakes. However, for a program that has always been challenged with keeping up with recruiting given the high academic standards of the university, is Key the right fit for the ever-evolving college football landscape dominated by NIL and the transfer portal? The fundamental problems for this program — that hiring Collins Temple was supposed to address as he moved away from the spread triple option that defined the successful 11-year Paul Johnson era — remain. The four victories with Key as the interim coach were by 14 combined points — and their four losses under Key were by a combined 76 points. The Yellow Jackets' 4-4 conference record was betrayed by them getting outgained by -62 YPG against those eight ACC opponents.   STANFORD: What are the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw? Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. Best of luck -- Frank. 

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Viktor Hovland's Ascendance Rewards Our Faith (and Our Pocketbooks)

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

After Viktor Hovland rewarded my faith in him by winning the PGA BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs three weeks ago, I was not going to jump off the bandwagon the next week at the Tour Championship. Hovland paid out tickets at +1600 odds at most spots for winning the BMW Championship. He was my Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds with him listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings to win the week (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we wanted the prop for best raw score this week). At the BMW Championship, Hovland followed up his Round Three of 65 with a Round Four of 61 with that nine-under score bolstered by his shooting a sensational 28 on the back nine — and under pressure. I had been bullish on Hovland since he settled for second place at the PGA Championship. Hovland had been remarkably consistent this season with 17 top-25 finishes in his last 22 events — and he has eight top-25s in his last nine tournaments. Hovland settled for a tie for 13th place at the British Open last month. He looked poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with simply coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 105th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). He was above average Around-the-Green — statistically — this summer which accounts for his moving up the ranking. He was clearly playing with more confidence with his chipping as evidenced by a couple of clutch shots on Sunday last week. Hovland was already one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranked sixth on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The last seven winners at East Lake had finished in the top-seven for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Overall, Hovland ranked third in the field by gaining +2.1 shots per round versus the field — and he was arguably the hottest golfer in the field going into the Tour Championship at the East Lake Country Club in Atlanta. It was his fourth trip to East Lake where he finished in fourth place two years ago. He started two strokes behind Scottie Scheffler in the adjusted scoring but quickly overcame that deficit after Round One. After a second round of 64 which was six-under par, Hovland seized a lead that he would never relent. He won the Tour Championship with an adjusted score of 27-under par — but winning the raw score for the week remained very much in doubt on Sunday. Xander Schauffele joined him in the final group in Round Four — and he shot 8-under for the round which was one better than Hovland. Schauffele settled for second place in the adjusted score at 22-under par. Hovland and Schauffele ended up tied for the week with a score of 261 which was 19-under par. But fortunately for us, Schauffele was our Best Bet for the week at +900 (DraftKings)— so we were able to cash that ticket along with our Viktor Hovland ticket (our Top Overlay Bet once again) at +1000 (DraftKings) to share those two dead heat winners at a +950 net payout. Cashing at +1600 odds and then the net +950 odds is a great way to end our golf season. We had seven 1st Place winners in 2023 after enduring three near-miss second-place finishes since cashing our Brooks Koepka tickets at 20-1 with his win at the PGA Championship. Hollywood Sports has 12 first-place winners in our last 43 PGA Tour Reports with regulars now enjoying over 63 weeks of free rolls where they can invest in the Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet, and Long Shot for 2024 and beyond!FYI: I do not handicap the fall PGA Tour events. I need the time for football and the pros tend to treat those events a little differently. My next Golf Report will be for the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first week of 2024, so on to January (in golf) ...Best of luck — Frank.

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Trying to Understand the Confounding San Diego Padres

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

The San Diego Padres seem to be a better team than their 62-72 record indicates. They are outscoring their opponents by 0.4 runs per game. They have scored 602 times this season while giving up 548 runs. Their win/loss record using Pythagorean models is 73-61. With that record, they would hold the second wild card spot in the National League and likely destined to compete in the postseason once again. Instead, they are 22 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, and they are 7 1/2 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the final wild-card spot in the National League. Why has manager Bob Melvin’s team underperformed their run differential numbers? After their 6-5 loss in St. Louis on Tuesday, they are winless in their eleven games that have gone into extra innings. They have only won one of the twelve games this season decided by a walk-off run. Of the twenty-eight games decided by one run, they have won only six of them. Perhaps their inability to win close games is an indictment of the character of this team. Yet this was a group returning mostly intact that reached the National League Championship Series. They have one of the best managers in baseball in the veteran Melvin. The Padres’ inability to win close games could strictly be a function of bad luck that will eventually get evened out. Yet bettors expecting this switch to be flipped could go bankrupt waiting for it to happen. San Diego has only won six games in their last eighteen games with five losses in their last six games going into the final day of August. Injuries are beginning to pile up. Their pitching staff is without Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Musgrove has been on the injured list since the end of July with shoulder inflammation. The right-hander has a 10-3 record this season with a 3.05 era and a 1.14 whip in seventeen starts. In his eleven starts since the beginning of June, he has an 8-1 record with a 1.88 era and a 1.00 whip across 67 innings. Darvish was put on the injured list this week with an elbow that may shut him down for the rest of the season. The right-hander was not meeting his 2022 numbers when he posted a 16-8 record with a 3.08 era and a 0.98 whip. This year, Darvish has an 8-10 record with a 4.56 era and a 1.30 whip. After struggling in May and June with an era over 5.00, he started to find his groove with a 3.62 era and 32 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. Yet after giving up four or more earned runs in each of his last three starts, he was shut down with perhaps the elbow injury impacting his performance. The bats have underperformed this season. San Diego has just a .239 batting average on the year with a .324 on-base percentage and a .408 slugging percentage. They have only been a .500 team at home at Petco Park with a 33-33 record, yet they have won only 29 of their 68 games on the road. The Padres still appeared capable of making a run to take a wildcard spot in the National League at the beginning of the month. Yet as the MLB season enters its final month, San Diego will need to suddenly play their best baseball and finally get some luck on their side to make the playoffs. Bettors may be better served in assuming their descent into mediocrity only continues the rest of the way.Good luck - TDG.

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