NFL News & Notes
TAMPA BAY BUCS – Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the season but their point differential is just +3 which is the 17th best mark in the NFL. That’s because ALL of their wins they’ve come from behind to win in the final minute of play. We were on Seattle over TB last week and the Seahawks were up by 7, TB scored with 1:08 to play, Seattle then turned the ball over with under 1 minute left and the Bucs kicked a FG as time expired to win. Seattle averaged a ridiculous 8.6 YPP (+1.3 YPP) but were -2 in turnovers which we know is a death sentence in the NFL. Tampa’s other 3 wins this year came in a TD vs Houston with under 1 minute to play, a TD vs Atlanta with 6 seconds left and a FG as time expired vs the Jets. QB Baker Mayfield has played nearly flawless football in Tampa’s final drives and for the season he has 10 TD’s and only 1 interception. They’ve found ways to win late in games but they’ve been pretty fortunate.
CLEVELAND BROWNS - Browns are in one of the tougher situational spots of any team this season. They played in London on Sunday and they don't get usual bye after playing overseas. Instead face third straight away game (@ Detroit, London, @ Pittsburgh) and fourth away game in five weeks. On top of that, Pittsburgh has been a house of horrors for the Browns as they’ve haven’t won in the Steel City since 2003 (21 straight losses). Not have they only lost 21 in a row @ Pittsburgh, the Browns have only covered 5 of those games. On the end, the Steelers are coming off a bye last week after playing in Ireland 2 weeks ago. However, Pittsburgh is overvalued right now with a 3-1 record. They’ve been outgained in EVERY game this season. Their YPP margin is -0.9 and their YPG margin is -120. As bad as Cleveland’s offense has been this year, the Browns still average 25 more YPG than the Steelers (288 YPG for Cleveland / 263 YPG for Pittsburgh).
TENNESSEE TITANS – The 4th quarter of last week’s Tennessee @ Arizona game was crazy. The Titans entered the final quarter down 21-6 and they had scored a grand total of 3 TD’s in 53 offensive possessions going into that final stanza. Chance of them covering as a 7.5 point dog were slim and an actual win seemed out of the question. Arizona fumbled going into the endzone (early celebration fumble) early in the 4th that would have put the game away at 28-6. Instead, it was a touchback giving the ball to Tennessee on the 20-yard line. The previously “offense-less” Titans then scored 2 TD’s and FG on their final 3 drives to win 22-21 picking up their first win of the season. If you didn’t see their 2nd fourth quarter TD, check it out (interception by Arizona, then Cards fumbled into the endzone recovered by Tennessee). A rare win and cover for Titan head coach Brian Callahan as he is now 4-18 both SU & ATS since taking over in 2024.
BALTIMORE RAVENS – How bad is the Ravens defense right now? They just gave up 44 points to a Houston offense that was averaging 16 PPG coming into Sunday. The Texans had scored 6 total offensive TD’s this year in 4 games entering last Sunday’s game vs Baltimore. They put up 5 TD’s on 417 total yards in their 44-10 win. Prior to Sunday’s game, Houston QB Stroud had faced Baltimore 3 times and failed to put up an offensive TD in any of those games! The Raven’s defense does, sort of, have an excuse as they are missing a number of defensive starters due to injury (5 rookies started on that side of the ball last week). However, they weren’t playing well before losing those guys the last few weeks. QB Lamar Jackson didn’t play in the game and his presence is obviously very important to this team. How important? With Jackson starting at QB, the Ravens have won 72% of their games. Without him (not starting due to injury or sitting out), they have a 4-11 record. His replacement, veteran Cooper Rush, threw for just 179 yards and had 3 interceptions. Surprisingly, Baltimore is now 1-4 on the season after entering the season with an AFC best 7/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS – The Raiders have had the most difficult situational schedule of the young season. They opened the season @ New England, came home for a Monday night game vs LA Chargers, went back to the east coast to take on Washington, came home to face the Bears, and then back to the eastern time zone last week to take on the Colts. Indy rolled up a huge 40-6 win easily covering the 7-point spread. However, the Colts only had 317 total yards in that win and outgained LV by just 21 yards. Despite only scoring 6 points, the Raiders only punted twice (one was blocked) but QB Geno Smith continued to be a turnover machine with 2 more interceptions. Smith already has thrown 9 picks this season after throwing 15 last year which was 2nd most in the NFL. Since winning the starting spot in Seattle back in 2022, he has started 54 games and thrown 44 interceptions. Don’t be surprised if head coach Pete Carroll moves to back up Kenny Pickett this weekend when they host Tennessee.
LA CHARGERS – What the heck happened to the Chargers offense? After scoring 70 points in their first 3 games (all wins) they have put up only 28 total points in their last 2 vs NY Giants and Washington (both losses). It looked like they were back on track early on Sunday vs the Commanders scoring 10 points on their first 2 possessions on 120 yards. From that point on the Chargers only gained 216 yards on their final 7 drives resulting in 0 points. They did have a few chances to score which resulted in turnovers at the Washington 1 yard line and 25 yard line. QB Justin Herbert started the season on an All Pro pace completing over 70% of his passes in each of his first 2 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. However, over his last 3 games he has completed less than 60% of his passes twice and has thrown 3 TD’s and 4 interceptions. If the Chargers struggle again offensively @ Miami this weekend they might have bigger issues. The Fins defense ranks 27th in scoring, 29th in total D, and 31st in YPP allowed.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS – The Commanders are in the midst of one of the tougher 5-week scheduling spots in the NFL this season. They played @ Atlanta and lost, just won @ LA Chargers, come home to play Chicago this weekend, then travel to Dallas and Kansas City following their game vs the Bears. On top of that, they catch the Bears this weekend off a bye and when they face KC the Chiefs will be playing their 3rd straight home game. Good news is starting QB Daniels was back in the lineup @ LA after missing 2 games and led the offense to 27 points on 7.1 YPP vs one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. The Bears have had this weekend’s game @ Washington circled in red. Chicago scored a TD with 25 seconds left in the game taking a 15-12 lead to secure what looked like a win, but not so fast. The Commanders ran 3 quick plays to get out near midfield and then won the game on a 52 yard hail mary as time expired. Despite the last second, miracle win, Washington dominated the stats with 481 total yards to just 307 for Chicago.
NY JETS – Jets are now 0-5 after getting blown out at home by the Cowboys last week. We’ve discussed how important turnovers are in the NFL (most important stat) with the team winning the TO battle winning between 75% and 80% of the time long term. Well, that’s one of main reasons the Jets are winless. Their defense does not have a single take away this entire season. They are the only team in the HISTORY of the NFL to not have a takeaway through the first 5 games. Last Sunday that defense allowed the Cowboys to average 7.1 YPP despite missing not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 starting offensive linemen. The NY offense put up decent numbers with 22 points on 378 yards however, 19 of those 22 points and 217 of their 378 total yards came on their final 4 possessions when the game was out of reach with Dallas leading 30-3. Turnovers and penalties continue to a be a problem for this team as they rank dead last in turnover differential which is understandable since they have created a turnover this year. They also average the 4th most penalty yards per game. The Jets travel to London on Sunday to face the Broncos.
Read more
