by Al McMordie
Friday, Feb 13, 2026The NBA and NHL are on hiatus this week, so the sports betting world will be focused on NCAA Basketball. One of the things I like to do when betting on College Basketball is take teams off losses. And if a team is off big losses, even better. The reason being, of course, is that teams are incentivized to play better after bad games.
For our NCAA System of the Week, let's take a look at a relatively simple system. What we want to do is play on any underdog (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS losses by more than 20 points, if it is playing an opponent not off back to back losses. Since 1990, our underdogs in this situation have gone 461-360-17 (56.1%) ATS.
On this Friday, there is one team which fits this 56.1% ATS system: Rider +5.5 over Mount St. Mary's.
The Broncs come into Friday's game off blowout losses at Marist (81-52) and at home vs. Merrimack (73-47), while Mount St. Mary's is off an 83-76 upset win at Iona.
And although there's nothing wrong with 56.1%, we can improve our system to 73-47-1 (60.8%) ATS by taking teams off 3 SU/ATS losses by more than 20 points. (Rider does not fit this 60.8% ATS tightener.)
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
For our NCAA System of the Week, let's take a look at a relatively simple system. What we want to do is play on any underdog (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS losses by more than 20 points, if it is playing an opponent not off back to back losses. Since 1990, our underdogs in this situation have gone 461-360-17 (56.1%) ATS.
On this Friday, there is one team which fits this 56.1% ATS system: Rider +5.5 over Mount St. Mary's.
The Broncs come into Friday's game off blowout losses at Marist (81-52) and at home vs. Merrimack (73-47), while Mount St. Mary's is off an 83-76 upset win at Iona.
And although there's nothing wrong with 56.1%, we can improve our system to 73-47-1 (60.8%) ATS by taking teams off 3 SU/ATS losses by more than 20 points. (Rider does not fit this 60.8% ATS tightener.)
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
