ASA's NFL News & Notes

PACKERS – Green Bay is now the only team remaining that has been favored in every game this season.  The Eagles were the only other team in that category entering this week but they are a 2.5 point dog @ Green Bay next Monday night.  The Packers are coming off a 16-13 loss @ home vs Carolina as a 13.5 point favorite.  They outgained the Panthers by +1.0 YPP and didn’t punt once in the game and only scored 13 points.  Crazy.  Historically, teams coming off a loss as a double digit favorite have done well in their following game with a 111-87 ATS record (56%) dating back to 1980.

 

SAINTS – Despite their 1-8 record, the New Orleans defense has been pretty solid this year.  They ranks 12th in YPP allowed and 18th in total defense which isn’t bad for a 1 win team.  They lost 34-10 @ LA Rams last week and the defense was on the field A LOT in that game.  The Rams offense had the ball for 44 minutes and ran 77 plays while the Saints offense had just a 16 minute time of possession and ran only 40 plays.  Nothing new for this defense as their opponents have held the ball for almost 56% of the total minutes played this year which is the most in the NFL.  When does this defense start wearing down and hit a wall?  Maybe that’s already happened but something to keep an eye on this week as the Saints are on the road again @ Carolina who runs the ball a lot (#2 in carries per game) and ranks in the top 10 in offensive time of possession.

 

COWBOYS – What the heck happened to the Cowboys offense on Monday night?  They had scored at least 40 points in all of their home games this season and hadn’t been held under 24 points all season.  They were ranked #1 in YPG passing and facing an Arizona defense that had not been particularly good defending the pass (entered the game 25th defending the pass).  They held Dak Prescott to his lowest QBR of the season and Dallas put up just 17 points and they entered the game averaging 31 PPG.  Worse yet, the Dallas offense actually scored only 10 points as one of their TD’s was a blocked punt returned for a TD.  The Boys did have their chances getting shut out on downs inside the Arizona 5 yard line and they also had 2 turnovers in Cardinal territory.  If this offense can’t put up big numbers they are in huge trouble with the defense ranking last in the NFL.  They did pick up a few defensive players at the trade deadline so we’ll keep an eye on how that changes this stop unit, if at all.

 

LIONS – Detroit was the most popular play for bettors last weekend (total tickets) with over 85% of the spread bets.  They were an 8.5 point favorite vs Minnesota and the Vikings won the game 27-24 despite averaging only 4.4 yards per play.  The Vikings took advantage of some short fields on offense as their 2 TD drives were just 35 and 36 yards.  The potent Detroit offense averaged only 4.9 YPP which was their lowest mark of the season since Green Bay held them to 3.8 YPP in the season opener.  Entering the game off a week of rest, the Lions were 3-1 ATS coming off of a bye since head coach Dan Campbell took over in 2021.  Detroit travels to Washington this weekend as an 8.5 point favorite and the Lions are 12-0 ATS their last 12 following a SU loss.

 

BEARS – We’ve discussed how the Bears have been very fortunate with their turnover situation and that continues.  During their 4 game winning streak from Sept 21s through October 19th, Chicago won the turnover battle in every game and they were +11 turnovers overall during that stretch.  They never had a turnover margin of less than +3 in any of those 4 wins yet to of those games, vs the Commanders and Raiders, were only 1 point wins for Chicago despite the turnover disparity.  Well, they did it again last weekend.  They had a +3 turnover margin vs the Bengals yet only won 47-42 on a TD with 17 seconds left to do so.  Their turnover differential of +13 on the season is 4 better than the next team which is Pittsburgh at +9.

 

BRONCOS – Denver is on a 6 game winning streak with 4 of those wins coming by 4 points or less.  They actually trailed in all 4 of those aforementioned games entering the 4th quarter by a combined 42 points yet won all of them.  The Broncos are a perfect 4-0 in games they trailed entering the final stanza and just 3-2 when the lead entering the 4th quarter.  They face division rival Las Vegas at home on Thursday night and it’s been quite a scheduling stretch.  During their 6-0 run they’ve played 6 games in 35 days so an average of 1 game every 5.8 days.  That includes a trip to London in the middle of that stretch.  Pretty incredible they won all 6 games during that rough scheduling situation.  They get a reprieve after Thursday night with 10 days off prior to facing Kansas City followed by a bye week.

 

BILLS – Buffalo was ultra impressive last week at home topping Kansas City 28-21 as a slight home underdog.  They were +7 first downs, +98 total yards and had a YPP margin of +0.9 in that win.  The Bills never trailed in the game and held KC to just 305 total yards after the Chiefs had topped 400 yards in 3 of their previous 4 games.  Now comes a potential dangerous spot for Buffalo traveling to the 2-7 Dolphins.  Miami has had extra time after losing to Baltimore last Thursday night.  The Fins lost that game 28-6, however the yardage was about dead even and 3 turnovers by Miami (0 for Baltimore) was the key difference.  The Bills are favored by -9.5 in the game which is their highest favorite role @ Miami in the history of this AFC East series (dating back to 1980).  Buffalo has won 5 of their last 6 trips to Miami but watch the weather closely here.  The forecast calls for the heat index to reach 100 degrees and Hardrock Stadium has the visitor’s sidelines directly in the sun during early afternoon starts while the Miami sideline will be shaded.