The 2026 season for the Brasileirao Serie A is set to start on Wednesday, January 28. Flamengo is the defending champion from last season and the league has been very competitive in recent years with 3 different champions over the last 3 seasons. Now with the start of the new season just around the corner, it is time to see who has the best chance at bringing home the title this year.
To Win Outright
Flamengo +200: Flamengo is coming into this season as the team with the best chance at bringing home the Brasileirao Title, according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is coming off of a very accomplished season as they were the best team in all of South America. They won the Brasileirao as well as Copa Libertadores, and they even finished as the runners up to PSG in the FIFA Intercontinental Cup. They were dominant, but that dominance also made them a big target for European clubs to poach their players. They still have a lot of quality in their squad as well as a lot of depth to lean on, but they did lose a lot of the quality players that made them so good last season. Flamengo is a club that has lots of money to spend so they are always going to be a threat as they will spend the money to keep themselves at the top, but this is still going to be a bit of a transition year for them with so many new faces on the team. Last season was also a big year for Flamengo since they had not won a trophy in a while, but now they are not going to have the same hunger this season. They did not dominate the league by that much last season either, only with a 3 point lead over 2nd place in the end. Flamengo is still a very good option to win the Brasileirao Title this season as they are always going to be a threat in the league, but there is not a lot of value in them at this price, and it is likely that the team takes a bit of a step back from what they were last season. This is not a great price for Flamengo to win the title.
Palmeiras +350: Palmeiras is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Brasileirao Title, according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is another team like Flamengo who has a lot of money to spend as they are a Brasilian giant. They are coming off of a good season as they were also dominant in the league, but last year was a season of always being a bridesmaid and never a bride for them. They finished in 2nd place in the Brasileirao, finishing just 3 points behind Flamengo, and they even lost to Flamengo in the Copa Libertadores Final. They came up short in every competition with no trophies, but that is only going to push them harder to win something this year. Palmeiras did lose a key piece in their starting XI as well as their starting goalkeeper, but they did not lose a lot of talent as a whole, and they were able to replace a lot of the pieces they lost as well. Palmeiras, like Flamengo, is always going to be a threat in this league and they have the quality to take the league back this season. They have not won the Brasileirao Title in the last 2 season either, last winning it in 2023 when they went B2B in 2022 and 2023, but it has been a very quiet 2 years for them in the trophy case and that is going to change this season. Palmeiras is going to have plenty of motivation after coming so close last season, and they have the quality as well as the depth to be the best team in the league this season. They are also a very reliable team with their success in the Brasileirao over the last decade, so there is some good value in them to win the Brasileirao Title at this price.
Cruzeiro +700: Cruzeiro is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Brasileirao Title, according to the oddsmakers. Cruzeiro is coming off of a very good season last year and they have been improving a lot since being promoted to Serie A back in 2023. They managed to stay up in their 1st Serie A season, finishing in 14th place, then they improved with a 9th place finish the next year, and now they are coming off of a season where they finished in 3rd place and were 9 points out of 1st place. They were one of the more dominant teams in the league last season and they were also the runners up in the Copa do Brasil, losing to Corinthians in penalties. Cruzeiro has been building a very good team over the last 3 years, spending a lot of money since getting promoted, and they are not a team that is just going to go away with a bad season. They did not lose a lot of quality from last season and they are going to be able to compete with the top teams in the league as well. They are going to have a lot of different competitions to worry about this year and that could take some focus away from the league since they do not have the depth to dominate every competition, but they are not a bad dark horse to win the league as they are going to be in the mix for the top 4 race. Cruzeiro is not the best option to win the Brasileirao Title this season, but there is some good value at this price as a dark horse.
Botafogo +1000: Botafogo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Brasileirao Title, according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is coming off of a season where they finished in 6th place in the Brasileirao and they took a big step back. They had a dominant stretch in the league over the last few years, even winning the Brasileirao Title in 2024 as well as Copa Libertadores, but a lot of that quality is no longer on the team and they are not the dominant force they once were. They have made some good additions as they are still spending money to replace the quality they lost, and they did bring in some very talented pieces for this season. Copa Libertadores is also going to be a big focus for them though, and they do not have the depth to dominate both competitions as they did 2 years ago. They found themselves stretched very thin last season as they struggled to stay near the top of the league and also failed to win their Copa Libertadores group in the group stage, fizzling out in the Round of 16 as well. Botafogo still has a lot of quality and will be fighting for those top 4 spots in the league this season, but Copa Libertadores will also be a focus for them and they are not going to be able to keep up with the bigger clubs over the long term. Botafogo does not have a lot of value at this price as they have a very slim chance of winning the title this year.
Fluminense +1400: Fluminense is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Brasileirao Title, according to the oddsmakers. Fluminense is coming off of a good season as they finished in 5th place in the Brasileirao and that was enough to get them into Copa Libertadores this year, but they are not a team that usually dominates the league from year to year. They only have 4 Brasileirao Titles in their club history and their last one came back in 2012. They have not even finished in the top 4 of the league in the last 3 seasons, and they are due to take a bit of a step back this season as well. They were very inconsistent last season as they had an awful start to the season and ended up correcting that near the end of the year. They had a very good stretch in the Club World Cup as well, but Copa Libertadores is going to be the competition that they are more focused on this season. They also lost a lot of the quality they had last year and they did not do a great job replacing that talent, so they are going to struggle to even compete for a top 4 spot this year. Fluminense is not consistent enough to be a threat in the league this season, and they are lacking with their quality and depth as well. There is no real value in Fluminense to win the league at this price.
Bahia +1600: Bahia is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Brasileirao Title, according to the oddsmakers. Bahia is coming off of a season that was good but not great. They finished in 7th place in the Brasileirao which was enough for a Copa Libertadores play-in spot, but they only had a +4 GD last season as their attack was not much better than their defense. They have been a solid team since being promoted to Serie A back in 2023, but they have failed to crack the top 6 every season since coming back up. They only have 2 Brasileirao Titles in their club history as well, the last coming back in 1988, and they have not been close to winning one in recent years either. They did a good job retaining a lot of their quality from last season, but that talent is not going to win them a league title, and they did not make any big moves to improve the team drastically either. Bahia is a solid team that is going to be competitive in the league and will likely finish in the top 10, but this is not a team that is competing for a league title with the quality they have. There is no real value in Bahia to win the Brasileirao Title at this price since they do not have a good chance to win the title at all.
RecommendationThere are some quality teams in the Brasileirao this season, but the league is also very top heavy with the rest of the clubs not having the quality to compete with the top 4. Cruzeiro has been an up and coming team over the last few years that has improved each season since being promoted, and they are coming off of a great season last year as well so there is value in them to win the title at +700 as a dark horse. There is not a lot of variance in this league though as it is hard for any club to compete with the 2 goals at the top, and the league has been dominated by Flamengo and Palmeiras over the last decade with those 2 clubs winning a majority of the titles. It usually ends up being a 2 horse race for the title, and Palmeiras is the much better team to take here since they are going to have the hunger from coming up short last year while Flamengo is off of a great year where they dominated everything. Cruzeiro at +700 has some value as a dark horse, but Palmeiras at +350 is the best option to take for a team to win the Brasileirao Title this season.
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