Anatomy of a 16.5-1 Winner: Handicapping Matt Fitzpatrick at the PGA RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick was our Best Bet last month when he won the Valspar Championship, which paid off at 15-1. I considered Fitzpatrick closely but passed on him at the Masters, where he settled with a tie for 18th place. He gained significant strokes versus the field at Augusta National in both Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Now, for the RBC Heritage last week, he was returning to a course he loves after playing frequently at Harbour Town on Hilton Head Island as a child. We were also on Fitzpatrick when he gave away the championship at THE PLAYERS Championship. He had a lead late in Round Four of that event before Cameron Young birdied the 17th hole. Young then hit the longest drive on the 18th hole ever at TPC Sawgrass of 375 yards to put him in a great opportunity for a birdie. Fitzpatrick hit his drive into the rough. But Young missed his birdie putt — leaving Fitzpatrick with a 12-footer to force a playoff. But the Englishman missed the putt and had to settle for second place. Fitzpatrick has never been in better form when it comes to his driver and iron play. He had lost strokes versus the field in the Tee-to-Green metric just once since last June. He led the PGA Tour in 2026 in both Ball-Striking and Proximity to the Hole. He ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. He had also been good with his driver — but it was his improved iron play that was making the difference this year. His ranking of seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green was a career high. The former US Open winner has made the cut in every professional event worldwide since last year’s Masters. He won the DP World Championship in the fall. His putter has sometimes held him back this season — but he ranked 30th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, so this was likely just a temporary blip. There was a good case to be made that his struggles with his blade are simply a product of his struggles on the Poa Annua surfaces that dominate the west coast events. He is much better on Bermuda greens. He won this tournament in 2022 and has four top 15 finishes at Harbour Town in his career. I love an in-form Fitzpatrick — and we were on him in 2022 when he won the US Open.For a while, it looked like deja vu all over again. Like at THE PLAYERS Championship, Fitzpatrick held a lead late in this tournament before an errant shot off the tee on the 18th hole gave the chasing Scottie Scheffler the opportunity to steal the tournament (or at least force a playoff) with a birdie. Scheffler demonstrated why he is the best player in the world by getting a birdie at the 18th — but Fitzpatrick recovered from his bad drive to earn the par and return to the 18th hole for the playoff. It was there when Fitzpatrick hit an incredible four iron on his second shot from 204 yards away within 13 feet of the pin. He then nailed the birdie putt to claim his (and our) second victory on the PGA Tour in 2026. Fitzpatrick will not be an autoplay for us moving forward, despite the great feelings we (and our bank accounts) have for him right now. While he is in great form, considering course fit and the value in the odds remains essential to long-term success, making money investing in golf. Scheffler remains great, despite the loss, but when the books are placing his odds at +370 like they were for the RBC Heritage, he presents underlay value that should be avoided. We’ll see how the books and the market treat Fitzpatrick moving forward. Best of luck — Frank.
Read more
