Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/03/2024

Tuesday, Sep 03, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 13 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles host the Chicago White Sox at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles tap Cade Povich to take the ball to face the White Sox’s Nick Nastrini. Baltimore is a -310 money-line favorite with the total set at 9. The Miami Marlins play at home against the Washington Nationals at 6:40 p.m. ET. Max Meyer takes the mound for the Marlins to pitch against Patrick Corbin. Miami is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Minnesota Twins at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Rays tap Jeffrey Springs to go against the Twins’ David Festa. Tampa Bay is a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:07 p.m. ET. Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Blue Jays to challenge Tyler Phillips for the Phillies. Toronto is a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets play at home against the Boston Red Sox on TBS at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Mets send out David Peterson to battle against the Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. New York is a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are home against the Colorado Rockies at 7:20 p.m. ET. Chris Sale takes the hill for the Braves to duel against Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Atlanta is a -395 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET. Cleveland travels to Kansas City with the Guardians turning to Tanner Bibee to pitch against the Royals’ Brady Singer. The Guardians are a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Milwaukee hosts St. Louis with Aaron Civale getting the ball for the Brewers to face Steven Matz getting off the injured list for the Cardinals. The Brewers are a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Pittsburgh plays at Chicago with the Pirates tapping Paul Skenes to go against the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. The Pirates are a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees are in Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Yankees to challenge Andrew Heaney for the Rangers. New York is a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel across town to play the Los Angeles Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET. The Dodgers tap Walker Buehler to battle against the Angels’ Reid Detmers getting called up from the minor leagues. The Dodgers are a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Seattle Mariners play in Oakland against the A’s at 9:40 p.m. ET. Luis Castillo gets the ball for the Mariners to duel against J.T. Ginn for the Athletics. Seattle is a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks turn to Ryne Nelson to face a Giants’ starting pitcher yet to be named.

Week 1 NFL Player Props

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Sep 02, 2024

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-125)This matchup has shootout written all over it and boasts the second highest scoring total of the weekend (O/U 49.5). There are lots of preseason question marks on the Miami defense leaving room for Lawrence to sling it all over the field in order to keep up with the Dolphins explosive offense. In 2023, the Dolphins had the 22rd ranked scoring defense and likely got worse on that side of the ball during the offseason. The Jags added the big bodies of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to win contested catches in the Red Zone, helping Lawrence boost his passing stats in his fourth season. Jacksonville will score multiple touchdowns on Sunday, and TLaw is in for a big day to start his 2024 campaign. Zamir White Over 51.5 Rush Yards (-115)White is replacing Josh Jacobs as the workhorse running back in Las Vegas with basically zero other competition for opportunities. In the concluding four games without Jacobs last year, White averaged 21 attempts per game and nearly 100 rushing yards per game. Going into year three, White is poised to be a key factor in what the Raiders wish to do, which is play defense and run the ball. This matchup is likely to see the most rushing attempts of the weekend and White should see at least 15 rushing attempts himself. At 6’0 215, even a fraction of the efficiency we saw from the end of last season will get White to his yardage goal week 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 Rec Yards (-115)Its weird to think, but the Rams defense has fallen from the ranks in recent years and is expected to be one of the worst units in the NFL for 2024. Similar to the Jags/Dolphins matchup, this one has the highest point total in the league for week 1 (O/U 51). Ra averaged 95 receiving yards per game last year, and a juicy matchup in front of a buzzing crowd at Ford Field will get the Sun God activated early this year. With such a high scoring game expected from oddsmakers, it's hard to see where the disconnect is for Detroit's star wide receiver. Last year St. Brown went over 80 yards in eleven of his sixteen games.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 02, 2024

The Monday Labor Day sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action.Week 1 in NCAAF college football concludes with one game between FBS opponents. Florida State hosts Boston College on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 16.5-point favorite with the total set at 50 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 2:10 p.m. ET. Freddy Peralta takes the ball for the Brewers to pitch against Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Milwaukee is a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Chicago White Sox at 3:05 p.m. ET. The Orioles turn to Corbin Burnes to face the White Sox’s Chris Flexen. Baltimore is a -395 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. Los Angeles travels to Arizona with Jack Flaherty taking the hill for the Dodgers to go against the Diamondbacks’ Eduardo Rodriguez. The Dodgers are a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Houston plays in Cincinnati with Justin Verlander taking the ball to challenge Julian Aguiar for the Reds. The Astros are a -166 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Kansas City hosts Cleveland with the Royals tapping Michael Wacha to battle against the Guardians’ Gavin Williams. Kansas City is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 6:40 p.m. ET. Joe Musgrove takes the mound for the Padres to duel against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Tigers. The Minnesota Twins are in Tampa Bay against the Rays at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Twins tap Simeon Woods Richardson to pitch against The Rays’ Zach Littell. Minnesota is a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Seattle Mariners visit Oakland to play the A’s at 7:07 p.m. ET. Logan Gilbert gets the ball to face Osvaldo Bido for the A’s. Seattle is a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Mets are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Mets send out Luis Severino to go against the Red Sox’s Bryan Bello. New York is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:40 p.m. ET. Jameson Taillon takes the hill for the Cubs to challenge Jared Jones for the Pirates. Chicago is a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees play in Texas against the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees turn to Gerrit Cole to battle a Rangers’ starting pitcher yet to be determined. New York is a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.Week 13 in the Canadian Football League concludes with its traditional Labour Day two games. The Toronto Argonauts are in Hamilton to play the Tiger-Cats on the CBS Sports Network at 2:30 p.m. ET as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 53. The Calgary Stampeders play at home against the Edmonton Elks on the CBS Sports Network at 6:00 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 51.5.

2024 NFC South Overview and Betting Preview

by Matt Fargo

Sunday, Sep 01, 2024

2024 NFC South Overview and Betting PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and NFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ NFC South Winner -130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,000Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC South Winner +320 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100 ~ NFC South Winner +400 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000Carolina Panthers: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ NFC South Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +25,000Coaching ChangesAtlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith Out ~ Raheem Morris InCarolina Panthers: Frank Reich Out ~ Dave Canales InTeam PreviewsAtlanta Falcons: 7-10 ~ 3-3 NFC South ~ 5-12-0 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 31Notable Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Rondale Moore, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, TE Charlie Woerner, CB Antonio HamiltonNotable Losses: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Van Jefferson, TE Jonnu Smith, TE MyCole Pruitt, DE Calais Campbell, DE Bud Dupree, CB Jeff OkudahNotable Draft Selections: QB Michael Penix Jr., DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DT Brandon Dorlus, LB JD BertrandAtlanta has increased its offensive yardage output while decreasing its defensive yardage output in each of the last three years yet the Falcons have finished with identical 7-10 records each season. They have gone six straight seasons without a winning record but many are expecting that to change in 2024 and the odds are reflecting the optimism. The record in 2023 should have been better as Atlanta finished No. 24 or worse in total offense and total defense in 2021 and 2022 but improved those rankings to No. 17 and No. 11 respectively last season but were on the wrong end of some close games. The Falcons started 4-3 but their next six losses were by a combined 16 points so there was certainly some bad luck involved yet there was plenty of bad coaching as closing losses by 20 and 29 points cost head coach Arthur Smith his job. After rumors of Bill Belichick possibly taking over, Atlanta settled on Raheem Morris who coached 11 games here in 2020 as an interim head coach and went 4-7. The big move was bringing in quarterback Kirk Cousins who is coming off an Achillies injury but he has looked fine during camp. One thing Smith did that shook heads was underutilizing running back Bijan Robinson and that is going to change under Morris. The Falcons picked up a trio of receivers to go with Drake London who is expected to have a big season along with tight end Kyle Pitts as there is a real quarterback room now. The defense was solid but lost their top two edge rushers.Despite winning no more than seven games for six straight seasons and going 1-6 to the under, the Falcons win total this season is 9.5 and juiced at -150. The addition of Cousins, an upgrade in the head coach, playing in arguably the worst division in the league and playing the second easiest schedule are all playing into this and many seem to be going all in. Winning the division is certainly conceivable as it getting double digit wins as they close the season with eight games against non-playoff teams from last season but that is where it should end. Going from +8,000 last year to +3,000 this year to win the Super Bowl is overly aggressive and their NFC odds also have a similar decrease. Everyone is in but we are steering clear.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC South ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 7-12-0 O/UWon the NFC South, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 28Notable Additions: G Sua Opeta, C Ben Bredeson, DE/OLB Randy Gregory, CB Bryce Hall, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Jordan WhiteheadNotable Losses: OT Greg Gaines, G Matt Feiler, DE William Gholston, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Devin White, CB Carlton Davis, S Ryan NealNotable Draft Selections: C Graham Barton, DE/OLB Chris Braswell, S/CB Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan, RB Bucky IrvingWhile Atlanta was a very unlucky team last season, Tampa Bay was just the opposite. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. It was the third straight division title for Tampa Bay and fourth straight playoff appearance but let’s not forget that Tom Brady was leading the offense for the first three of those postseason appearances. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense with the exception drafting center Graham Barton who should provide help right away along the offense line. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The cornerbacks were the big issue in the secondary so losing Carlton Davis is not a big deal but Tampa Bay needs to find a way to get to the quarterback or it will be another rough year.The Buccaneers were not given much of a chance last season with life after Tom Brady and they were stamped with 6 wins but surpassed that with their strong run at the end of the season. Tampa Bay finished as the third luckiest team in the NFL and part of what goes into that is injuries and the Buccaneers were pretty fortunate in that regard, namely along the offensive line. Their win total has come down and justifiably so as no one really bought into them last season and many will not this year either including right here. Despite playing an easy slate that features the NFC East and AFC West, those divisions will be better and their three crossovers are Detroit, Baltimore and San Francisco. Under 7.5 at plus money is the play.New Orleans Saints: 9-8 ~ 4-2 NFC South ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 32Notable Additions: WR Cedrick Wilson, OT Oli Udoh, DE Chase Young, LB Willie Gay, LB Khaleke HudsonNotable Losses: QB Jameis Winston, WR Michael Thomas, TE Jimmy Graham, G Andrus Peat, G Max Garcia, DE Malcolm Roach, OLB Zack Baun, CB Isaac Yiadom, S Marcus Maye, S Lonnie JohnsonNotable Draft Selections: OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer RattlerThe Saints finished tied with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South but lost the tiebreaker and missed the playoff for a third consecutive season. This coincides with the retirement of quarterback Drew Brees who led them to four straight postseason appearances in his final four seasons and the quarterback play has regressed considerably. Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the one thing that could bail him out is they have a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak who should help Carr. New Orleans did nothing else to improve the offense while losing wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jimmy Graham and both of which are still free agents which is saying they are not big losses for the Saints. Running back Alvin Kamara is coming off a below average season so getting him more involved would be a benefit. A weak offensive line could be their undoing. The defense was solid once again which has been the case for a few years no but they are getting older, especially in the secondary which could be problematic as the Saints have no pass rush, finishing No. 27 in pressure rate last season.Like Tampa Bay, New Orleans looks to be another team that no one is buying as despite a winning record last season and no huge defections, its odds have risen while the win total has come down. This is despite playing the so-called easiest upcoming schedule. Their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less that 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Their own division stinks but the AFC West and NFC East should be better and their three crossover games are against the Packers, Browns and Rams so there is no easy way to find eight wins. This is another fade as we go under and -210 to miss the playoffs.Carolina Panthers: 2-15 ~ 1-5 NFC South ~ 4-11-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/UFinished 4th in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 30Notable Additions: WR Diontae Johnson, WR David Moore, OT Yosh Nijman, G Damien Lewis, G Robert Hunt, DT A’Shawn Robinson, DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB D.J. Wonnum, DE/OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, LB Josey Jewell, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Fuller, S Nick ScottNotable Losses: WR D.J. Chark, TE Hayden Hurst, DE/OLB Brian Burns, DE/OLB Yetur Gross-Matos, DE/OLB Marquis Haynes, LB Frankie Luvu, LB Kamu Grugier Hill, CB Donte Jackson, CB C.J. Henderson, CB Shaq Griffin, S Jeremy ChinnNotable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks, LB Trevin Wallace, TE Ja’Tavion SandersCarolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each and by a combined score of 24-20 so if either Houston or Atlanta had just average games on offense, Carolina could have put up the goose egg. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. While upper management, namely owner David Tepper, should be to blame for the disaster that was 2023, head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and he became first NFL head coach since the 1970 merger to be fired in back-to-back seasons and both were midseason firings no less. Reich was not the issue but we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young who had one of the worst rookie seasons you will witness but it cannot be all put on him as he was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The receiving corps was nonexistent after the departure of D.J. Moore but they traded for Dionte Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette. Losing edge Brian Burns hurts the defense but overall there were some upgrades on an average unit.We are not going all in on Carolina but this could be one of the big surprises. The Panthers not going to the Super Bowl or make any sort of playoff run but in this division, they could be live. Ahead of them are two teams that no one is buying into based on the odds movement from the previous season and an Atlanta team that everyone is already crowning the NFC South champs despite being underachievers for years. Carolina plays the third easiest schedule and their crossover games are against the Bengals, Bears and Cardinals and this team is capable of stealing some wins as no one is going to take them too serious. The over is in play and it is not out of the question to give them a little backing to take this very weak division.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 01, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action.Week 1 in NCAAF college football continues with one game between FBS opponents. LSU challenges USC in the Las Vegas Classic on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Tigers are a 4-point favorite with the total set at 64.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 12:10 p.m. ET. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The New York Mets host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago Cubs play in Washington against the Nationals as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Boston Red Sox are in Detroit to play the Tigers. The San Diego Padres visit Tampa Bay to play the Rays as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. Three MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays as a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Oakland A’s at 2:35 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 9. The Baltimore Orioles are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants are at home against the Miami Marlins at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks on the Roku Channel at 4:10 p.m. ET. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN features the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Atlanta Braves at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.Week 13 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Saskatchewan Roughriders play at home against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on the CBS Sports Network at 7 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Matchweek 2 in the English Premier League season concludes with three matches. Two matches start at 8:30 a.m. ET. Chelsea is at home against Crystal Palace as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Tottenham are at Newcastle United on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3.5. Liverpool visit Manchester United at 11:00 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

Appreciating Framber Valdez's Midseason Breakout

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

It was Framber Valdez’s turn in the Houston Astros starting rotation on Friday (8/30) pitching against the Kansas City Royals. For the season, the left-hander had a 13-6 record along with a 3.27 era and a 1.14 whip in twenty-three starts. Yet even those good numbers did not tell the whole story of his season. Since Valdez began relying more on his curveball, he has gotten into one of the best grooves of his career. After not throwing his curveball more than 32% of the time in any start all season, Valdez used his curveball for a season-high (at the time) in 39% of his pitches on July 10th. He struck out ten batters and gave up only one earned run in seven innings against Miami. Since that effort, Valdez has thrown his curveball at least 37% of the time. In his last eight starts, the lefty has a 2.25 era and a 0.87 whip. He has struck out 67 strikeouts in those 52 innings. Averaging 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings while also inducing ground balls in 60% of the batted balls against him is a lethal combination. That season ground ball rate ranks in the 97th percentile in MLB. Opposing hitters have a low barrel rate of their batted balls against him of just 4.7%, ranking in the highest tenth percentile. In what was our MLB American League Game of the Month for August, Valdez looked poised to pitch a great game against the Royals. Hitting is down this season with the MLB batting average at .244, the on-base percentage at .313, and the slugging percentage at .401. Kansas City has .270/.331/.445 hitting plays when playing at home at Kauffman Stadium. Yet on the road going into that game, the Royals' splits dropped to .244/.296/.402 which is right at or below (the on-base percentage) the MLB average.As expected, Valdez was brilliant. He did not allow a hit in his seven scoreless innings of work. He struck out seven batters and only walked three. He got 15 whiffs against Kansas City hitters, and 28% of his pitches were either called strikes or a whiff (CSW rate). His curveball continued to be outstanding. It got a 73% strike rate against the Royals and a whiff on nine of his 37 curves thrown in that game.He left the game after throwing 98 pitches, with 60 of them going for strikes. The Astros clung to a 1-0 lead at the time. Unfortunately for him, he did get the victory after closer Josh Hader gave up two runs to the Royals in the top of the ninth inning. Fortunately for us, Jose Altuve's double in the bottom of the ninth inning scored the winning run to preserve our play on the Astros.Valdez begins September with a 13-6 record in his twenty-four starts. In his 150 1/3 innings, he has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He should get another five starts before the end of the regular season to build on those numbers. Good luck - TDG.

Reconsidering the Kansas City Royals' Playoff Prospects

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Las Vegas Sportsbook installed the Kansas City Royals’ season over/under win total at 73.5. The Royals rewarded bettors who were confident enough in them to wager the over on Monday (8/26) when they beat Cleveland, 9-4. With their 75-62 record going into September, Kansas City is in second place in the American League Central, trailing the Guardians by 2 1/2 games. If the playoffs were to start today, the Royals would claim the second wildcard spot. Yet one of the benefits of playing in their division is that they get to play the dumpster fire that is they get to play the Chicago White Sox for thirteen games. Manager Matt Qautraro’s team beat the CrySox in twelve of those thirteen games to take almost full advantage of that schedule. Unfortunately, Kansas City does not have the White Sox on their schedule for the rest of the season. They have a .547 winning percentage this season, yet take away their games against the White Sox, they are then only two games over .500 and post a .508 winning percentage. The White Sox caveat also affects their impressive +98 run differential this season which ranks second in the American League and is the fifth best in MLB. Yet +43 of that run differential comes in their thirteen games with the Chicago Southsiders. Their average margin of victory against the White Sox was +3.31 runs per game this year. Put another way, 43.9% of their run differential comes from their thirteen games with Chicago. The Royals have also played their best baseball when at home where they have a 41-28 record. Hitting is down this season with the MLB batting average at .244, the on-base percentage at .313, and the slugging percentage at .402. Kansas City has .270/.331/.445 hitting plays when playing at home at Kauffman Stadium. Yet on the road, the Royals' splits drop to .242/.295/.399 which is below those MLB averages. The Royals have a 34-34 record when playing away from home. Take away their six games on the road at Guaranteed Rate Field against the White Sox, their record falls below .500 at 29-33.They begin September on a four-game losing streak after losing on the road against Houston on Saturday, 5-2. They have lost the first three games of their four-game series against the Astros in Minute Maid Park by seven combined runs. They have not scored more than three games in those three games. Kansas City opens the new month with a difficult first eleven games. After completing their series with the Astros, they return home to host Cleveland and Minnesota in a pair of important AL Central series. They then go on the road for a three-game series in New York Yankees. That six-game road trip concludes with three games in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. They come back home for an easier six-game home stand against Detroit and San Francisco, which will complete their home schedule in the regular season. Their final six games are on the road against Washington and then Atlanta. Good luck - TDG.

NFL 2024-25 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).ATLANTA FALCONS: I do not mind the individual decisions the Falcons made in the offseason — but after adding them all up, I am troubled by the sum of its parts. It seems clear that owner Arthur Blank no longer wanted to be at parties having to defend his underwhelming quarterback room. So general manager Terry Fontenot invests $180 million ($100 million guaranteed) on a 36-year-old quarterback with a 1-3 career postseason record and spotty results in prime-time coming off an Achilles injury. OK, Kirk Cousins was the best available quarterback in free agency. And then Fontenot drafts Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the NFL draft despite him his injury history (two ACL tears), and his older age (three years older than the 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy). OK, Penix has a great arm and perhaps coaching can help his touch when under pressure. But making both moves together incurs some heavy opportunity costs that will make another Super Bowl run for Blank even more difficult. Cousins is Plan A — but using the eighth pick on Penix cost them a top-level offensive lineman or wide receiver, or the top defensive player in the draft (given the initial run of offensive players). By the way, if Cousins has not recovered from Achilles' injury, then veteran Taylor Heinicke is likely their Plan B Day One starting quarterback. Plan C is then Penix — but how does this work? The ideal scenario is that Cousins wins a couple of Super Bowls … and then somehow gives up his job to make room for Penix in two or three years. OK, then Penix begins his starting career at 26 or 27 years old and two or three years into his rookie deal. That is not the best way to maximize value out of your franchise quarterback drafted in the top eight picks (but they do have two Super Bowl rings!). But even then, the pivot to Penix loses the guaranteed money in the Cousins contract ($50 million? $25 million?) that could be used to sign other players to help the new era. Of course, even winning one Super Bowl with Cousins under center is unlikely — his two postseason victories since high school are equal to what McCarthy achieved with Michigan since December. Any early missteps will have the fans calling on Penix to get a chance. Does the locker room hold? There are a lot of ways this plan goes sideways. I want to step back to consider Atlanta’s rehiring of Raheem Morris as their head coach. I like Morris and I think he deserved an opportunity — and I tend to like head coaches in their second opportunity. But the former Tampa Bay head coach was already in the building as the defensive coordinator for Dan Quinn in 2020-21! If he is such a bright star (and maybe he is), then Blank cannot let him leave in 2021 after he first Quinn! Instead, Blank hires Arthur Smith, the son of the owner of FedEx, but fires him three years later. OK, maybe the additional three years in Los Angeles as the Rams defensive coordinator was the experience Morris needed to take the final step in his development — but Blank had no guarantee he could ever get him back. They are is an internal inconsistency with all these decisions — and I suspect they all have the common denominator of a meddling owner getting antsy in the twilight of his life. Blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl may do that to all of us. Perhaps hiring Sean McVay’s passing game coordinator Zac Robinson unlocks the vast potential of running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Perhaps Morris overseeing the defense again helps the younger players develop (and not miss the losses of veteran defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Bud Dupree). Perhaps making sure the quarterback room is in the best shape possible is the most important consideration. OK … but there is a haphazardness regarding these major decisions — and the writing is already on the wall explaining how this experiment failed if all does not go according to (Blank’s) plan. CAROLINA PANTHERS: The only area in which I feel comfortable prognosticating about the Panthers is that their defense is going to take several steps back from ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 293.9 Yards-Per-Game. That appears to be a number helped by Carolina’s negative game states and anemic offense. Despite their two victories last year, they did not play a down in the fourth quarter last year where they enjoyed a lead. The deeper analytics expose this: the Panthers ranked 26th in EPA per Play allowed and 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense replaces many of their best players — most notable linebackers Brent Burns and Frankie Luvu who combined for 49 pressures on the quarterback while being both strong run defenders. The likely regression of the defense is the subtext for the biggest question regarding the potential of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. In his defense, his support at the skill positions was laughable. When 33-year-old Adam Thielen catches 103 balls, it’s not because the “guy still has it.” The picture boy in the dictionary for empty calories only averaged 9.8 Yards-Per-Reception as defenses were overjoyed to allow another dump off to the zero YAC risk. With all five starters returning on the offensive line, pass protection was supposed to be an area of strength. Instead, some injuries and the regression of second-year left tackle Ikem Ekwonu led to a nightmare where Young was sacked 62 times — and the -477 sack yards lost was the third most in NFL history. It is easy to jump to conclusions about the 5’11 QB seemed undersized coming into the league at 204 pounds. But after Carolina traded WR1 D.J. Moore to Chicago (who wanted to help their young QB), Young was left with Terrace Marshall, free agent D.J. Chark, and rookie Jonathan Bingo. His dump-offs to Thielen make sense. And then there is the dysfunctional management approach of venture capital GOD! turned NFL owner David Tepper who pulled the trigger on his third midseason head coaching firing in the last five seasons in between dumping his next vodka-tonics on his heckling fan base. So quarterback whisperer Frank Reich is out and replaced by the next quarterback whisperer flavor of the month in Dave Canales. And maybe the 43-year-old has great potential — but two years ago at this time, he was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle. I worry about his inexperience as a manager of a team — and that worry is compounded by his decision to call his own plays — but when you just called the plays for a Tampa Bay offense that ranked the fourth worst in first and second down efficiency using the metrics of the Football Outsiders’ DVOA numbers, how could one resist? Rookie general manager Dan Morgan traded for Pittsburgh wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafted South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round. Morgan also overpaid for two guards in the free agent market — and the $73 million cap money dollars in their offensive line this season shatters the NFL record. Maybe this will truly help unlock Young and improve an offense that was last in the league by only generating 265.3 Yards-Per-Game? I think it is too early to come to conclusions about Young — but it is easy to be skeptical. CHICAGO BEARS: The hype revolves around Caleb Williams whom the Bears selected in the first pick in the NFL draft. General manager Ryan Poles will not be accused of not putting their next potential franchise quarterback into a position to succeed. After trading for wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster an anemic wide receiver room for Justin Fields last year, Poles traded for Keenan Allen from the Chargers and signed running back D’Andre Swift as a free agent who can catch balls out of the backfield. Poles also drafted Washington wide receiver Rome Odenze with the ninth pick in the draft — and the fully-capable X wideout as the third option in this attack along with tight end Cole Kmet who caught 73 balls last year makes this offense look much, much better than in years past. But the defense should be the better unit that made a dramatic improvement in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — but we are still talking about a rookie quarterback. DALLAS COWBOYS: Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have mastered the art of the Flat Track Bully. They have gone 12-5 in the regular season for three straight seasons. Last year, they outscored their opponents by +11.4 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +71.9 net Yards-Per-Game. Yet they have lost six of their nine games in the postseason in the last 11 seasons after a humiliating 48-32 loss at home to Green Bay in the NFC Wildcard round that seemed to serve as an indictment for every member of the organization. Yet rather than cleaning house, owner/president/general manager/podcaster Jerry Jones translated his initial “all-in” mantra to only signing three free agents while losing five starters to the market. The top running back may be Ezekiel Elliott who they let go last season in free agency. Another of those three significant free agent hires was running back Royce Freeman, who barely got time with the Los Angeles Rams last year. There is a theory that all Jones cares about is keeping the Cowboys in the news. With McCarthy and quarterback Dan Prescott headlining a long list, the hot seat is a rather wide this season in Dallas. DETROIT LIONS: After almost upsetting the 49ers on the road in San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl, the Lions are a trendy pick to get the opportunity to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nine starters return from an offense that has ranked in the top-four Yards-Per-Game in two straight seasons — and they scored at least 30 points in 11 games last year. If you like teams with great offensive lines (and I do), then it is easy to love Detroit’s group that returns four starters including a pair of All-Pros in right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, The skill positions are loaded with stars that will be drafted early in all the fantasy drafts. But there are concerns. A lot is being asked of third-year wide receiver Jameson Williams to step up as a credible option despite catching only 24 balls last year after missing half the season due to a gambling suspension. He missed almost his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL in January when he was still playing at Alabama. General manager Brad Holmes traded up for him anyway — as he is wont to do. Williams is a deep threat — but if he is only a deep threat and continues to be flaky, then this offense may lack a reliable second option at wide receiver to complement slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. A second pass-rushing defensive end is also an area of weakness. Led by Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit led the NFL in pressure rate on the quarterback — but they were just 23 in actual sacks. The Lions have James Houston back from injury last year after he registered eight sacks in seven games as a rookie — but was that a fluke or a flash of the potential of the former sixth-round pick? Third-year pro Josh Paschal has not developed as a second-round pick. Holmes signed defensive end Marcus Davenport away from Minnesota — but he has played more than 13 games just once in his six-year career. Defensive coordinator generates pressure by being aggressive with blitz calls — but this only puts more pressure on the cornerbacks which are the weak link of this team. The Lions ranked 27th in the league by allowing 247.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and they were last by surrendering 69 receptions of 20 or more yards. After the team cut their top cornerback Cam Sutton after his off-the-field incident that led to an NFL suspension, Holmes made the secondary his highest priority by signing for Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis III and then trading up twice in the draft (of course) to select Alabama corner Terrion Arnold in the first round and Missouri corner Ennis Rakastraw in the second round. Kudos to Holmes for aggressively identifying an area of extreme need — but he did the last season as well. Holmes signed Sutton as a free agent from Pittsburgh last year as well as cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — and he traded up (of course) to draft safety Brian Branch. The Branch pick looks great in hindsight — but Moseley suffered an injury early in Game One and Gardner-Johnson missed most of the year with an injury. Depth at cornerback became a significant drawback in the second half of the season. Now Sutton and Gardner-Johnson are gone. These plans are not foolproof. Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback. Maybe Holmes' plan continues to work. But for a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an after thought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy, to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league. GREEN BAY PACKERS: One of my questions in the offseason last year when assessing the Packers regarded the possibility that the team’s divorce from Aaron Rodgers would finally put the offense in the complete hands of head coach Matt LaFleur: “to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers.” And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility.” A year later, I think LaFleur deserves a ton of credit — especially for the way both sides of the ball continued to improve throughout the season. In hindsight, I did not appreciate the development and evolution of the Packers offense that took place midseason all the way through their 48-32 demolition of the Cowboys on the road in Dallas before their narrow 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love should have been expected to improve as he got more experience — but it was much more than that. After Week Nine, LaFleur implored on his quarterback to “shut his mind off and let it rip.” LaFleur also followed his own advice by getting more aggressive with his play-calling, especially with the use of pre-snap motion (48.5% of all plays through Week Nine, 60.4% of all plays afterward). In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers which makes me still consider if the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season. The post-Rodgers transition seems very promising. General manager Brian Gutekunst is committed to building this team from the draft after 35 picks in the last three seasons after their 11 rookies drafted in April. This “Green and Growing” approach resulted in only five players added via free agency in the offseason. The fruits of this labor are evident. When LaFleur laments the media’s focus on “who is the number one receiver” narratives, the Packers have a deep set of young wide receivers with a diverse skill set that plays right into the play-calling LaFleur seems to have chomping on the bit to execute since calling ill-advised fourth-and-goal plays as the OC for Tennessee years ago. Getting Watson healthy for an entire season only expands the possibilities. Gutekunst got younger at running back by releasing Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs who should unleash more play-action pass possibilities. LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: There are wildly different opinions regarding the state of this organization — and most of the disagreement starts with the evaluation of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first two years running the football operations. Coming off a 13-4 regular season, did Adofo-Mensah blow the Vikings’ opportunity to win the NFC North last year by not resigning running back Dalvin Cook? Minnesota only generated seven rushing touchdowns last year. And he is making this worse by not resigning veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Or, did Adofo-Mensah wisely not take the bait from that 13-4 campaign that ended with a seven-point loss at home to the New York Giants after a regular season where they got outscored and outgained? Despite a 7-10 campaign last year with Cousins missing nine games to injury and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson out seven games to injury, the Vikings only got outscored by 18 points over the entire season, just a 15 net difference in points from the previous year (and the 13-4 regular season mark). Adofo-Mensah began his tenure embracing a “competitive rebuild.” Resigning Jefferson for another four years while letting someone else take the chance to pay tons of money for an aging quarterback coming off a torn ACL seems pretty wise to me. And seemingly keeping to the script for this franchise, they selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the NFL draft who drew as divisive of pre-draft coverage as I have ever seen. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 21-year-old ran a 4.48 seconds time in the 40-yard dash. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” And with one set of pundits who I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, they made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated last year. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game not as effective as it was the year before. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — even before what he can potentially do as a rookie. But the Adofe-Mensah haters have plenty of ammunition to continue to hate. I’m kinda bullish of what McCarthy can do under head coach Kevin O’Connell’s guidance with weapons like Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockensen (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). The analytics suggested Minnesota was an eight-win team two years ago (their Pythagorean win tally was 8.4) — and they only dropped to 8.0 Pythagorean wins last year. The running back room should be better with Aaron Jones who averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season and thrives when the QB is under center. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores oversaw a unit that improved from 31st in the league in total defense to 16th by allowing only 333.2 total Yards-Per-Game. While Flores is aggressive, he also disguises and misdirects his schemes — and he is great at tailoring his game plans to the talent of his players. While this team is unlikely to replicate the 13-4 record from two seasons ago, this might very well be the best overall team under the O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah regime in their three seasons on the job. NEW YORK GIANTS: It was a fateful January afternoon when the Giants visited Minnesota to play the Vikings in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs two seasons ago. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. New York pulled off the upset to advance to the NFC Divisional Round. In the offseason, the Vikings management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than sign him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. General manager Joe Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal. He resigned running back Saquon Barkley at a base of $10.1 million. New York kicked off their season with a confidence that was quickly shattered in a humiliating 40-0 loss in Dallas. Jones was sacked eight times by a disastrous offensive line that would go on to allow 85 sacks on the year, the second most in NFL history since they began tracking that stat in 1982. Jones got sacked 28 times in five games before going down with a knock injury. When he returned later in the season, he tore his ACL in the second quarter against Las Vegas. The Giants closed the season with a 6-11 record. As Minnesota drafted their hopeful next franchise quarterback as they continue to rebuild, head coach Brian Daboll along with Shoen and Jones are all on the hot seat in a make-it-or-break-it year. Daboll has reshuffled his coaching staff headlined by new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. But he hired the previous “bums” — and former defensive coordinator Don Martindale had a good reputation in the league. Daboll is a screamer on the headset during the games — an act that wears thin. Martindale’s defenses are blitz-happy — but that also protected a young secondary and helped New York tie for NFL-lead with 31 takeaways (all after Week Four). Injuries played a big role — so the offensive line could improve if they stay healthy. Jones regressed after an encouraging first year under Daboll — but better protection could get him back to his 2022-23 form. Barkley was not resigned with the offense turning a running back by committee approach. After ranking last in Explosive Plays, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers was drafted in the first round. But I have to go back to Schoen and his decision-making. His first two drafts have resulted in far too many misses: first-round pick right tackle Evan Deal, third-round wide receiver picks WanDale Robinson and Jalen Hyatt. He continues to sign retread after retread in free agency. Just on the offensive line, after adding four free agents and drafting two rookies in the first three rounds in his first draft in 2022, he signed another five free agents this offseason — but did not draft an offensive lineman. Perhaps Schoen knows he no longer has the time to wait on a rookie to develop after all six of his acquisitions in his first year have all seemed to flop (only his two draft picks remain on the team)? A healthy and improved offensive line could help Jones — and adding Nabors may finally address the gaping hole at WR1. But with Daboll’s leadership skills now in question, it will not seem like it will take much for this organization to implode, yet again. And that would put them at least three years behind that Vikings team they upset in early 2022. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: My biggest concern about last year’s Eagles team was their defense being overrated after ranking second in total yards allowed. Their Super Bowl run involved some luck regarding quarterback injuries that complemented a soft schedule — and they lost five defensive starters from that group. Sure enough, Philly’s defense imploded last season; They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. General manager Howie Roseman addressed the secondary in the NFL draft and resigned safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Detroit. But defensive tackle Fletcher Cox returned and linebacker Hassan Reddick. The once lauded Georgia Defense North including recent Bulldogs’ draft picks nose tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith, Jr. have all been disappointments — it needs to be considered that perhaps they are overachieving products a college defensive unit loaded with talent. And this is all before we get to the dumpster fire end of the season when the team quit in an embarrassing 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the NFC Wildcard playoff round to culminate in losing six of their final seven games. Fourth-year head coach Nick Sirianni is clearly on the hot seat after overseeing that mess. He cleaned house by firing the coordinators on both sides of the ball — but he hired the bums in the first place! In hindsight, perhaps the true brain power behind their Super Bowl run in 2022-23 was offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon who are now the head coaches of Indianapolis and Arizona respectively. Now after tapping two relatively inexperienced coordinators last year, Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Denver head coach and big personality Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Both hires are high-risk, high-reward. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? The defense also undergoes a schematic change with Fangio implementing his patented two-high shell safety system that he had so much success with in his long career as a defensive coordinator. His one-year tenure in Miami as their defensive coordinator was rocky. Sirianni was already bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season (no surprise: the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving). Maybe the hires will reap immediate improvements on both sides of the ball. Maybe going young at cornerback and making a big splash by signing running back Saquon Barkley as a free agent gives the attack one more weapon to make it nearly unstoppable. Maybe the Georgia contingent sees the light turn on and take significant steps to meet their vast potential. But hiring two new coordinators is turbulent — and to be doing it in the second year in a row is even more tumultuous. And this time around, Sirianni hired two coaches who either could replace him later in the season if things do not turn around. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: The Commanders dropped from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last season in what quickly became a lame-duck season for head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew. After the team traded away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, the writing was on the wall and the remaining players were listless in some blowout losses. So the Washington defense ranking last by allowing 30.5 Points-Per-Game, 388.9 total Yards-Per-Game, and 262.2 Passing YPG should probably be taken with a grain of salt. We are now more than a year into the Brave New World under new owner Josh Harris who has replaced the toxic environment under Dan Snyder with new variations of embracing “the process” that has brought so many NBA Finals appearances for the Philadelphia 76ers under his leadership. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the head coach (after Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned the job down after complaining about too many NBA folks involved in football decisions). Quinn took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl before watching his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, game-management his way to helping Tom Brady orchestrate New England’s 28-3 comeback victory. He hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator to help the former college head coach of Patrick Mahomes to continue his failing upward career trajectory. Kingsbury has been in the same room with some talented quarterbacks — but now his challenge is to help Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels succeed behind a refurbished offensive line that allowed Sam Howell to get sacked a league-leading 65 times last year. Daniels is thin and took too many hits last year — if his breakout senior season was a product of great talent at wide receiver at LSU, it could be a long season for the Commanders. On the other hand, Daniels is a legitimate dual-threat QB who could jumpstart this offense like C.J. Stroud last year. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team.Best of luck -- Frank.

College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 2 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.ARIZONA STATE: The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. But both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing with so many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season. BOSTON COLLEGE: Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game. LSU: The Tigers are destined to take a step or two back on the offensive side of the ball after leading the nation by scoring 45.5 Points-Per-Game and generating 543.5 Yards-Per-Game. That’s what happens when you lose quarterback Jayden Daniels along with wide receivers Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who were all dragged in the first round. The offense should still be very good with junior Garrett Nussmeier taking over under center behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. LSU remains loaded at the skill positions — but Nussmeier is a classic pocket passer who lacks the mobility X-factor that Daniels enjoyed. But the Tigers have to improve their defense after ranking 105th in the nation by surrendering 416.6 YPG. LSU gave up at least 30 points eight times — and they have up 45.3 PPG against ranked opponents. Six starters are back on defense and head coach Brian Kelly once again hit the transfer portal to bring four players. The biggest change with new defensive coordinator Blake Baker who did a nice job the last two seasons running the Missouri defense. Baker’s defenses are aggressive — but he first needs to address the chronic tackling issues from last season. Linebacker Harold Perkins is one of the best defensive players in the nation. However, this program is not churning out elite cornerbacks or defensive linemen like they used to do. MICHIGAN STATE: Previous head coach Mel Tucker lived by the transfer portal — highlighted by finding a gem in Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker who blossomed into a star while leading the Spartans to a magical 11-2 season in 2021. Tucker was able to squeeze the MSU administration into inking him to a 10-year $95 million deal — but perhaps those bureaucrats should have given more weight to the fact that Sparty got outgained in yardage by -60 Yards-Per-Game in Big Ten play that year while benefitting from a +5 net close win margin. Tucker soon became a loser in the transfer window with more players like wide receiver Keon Coleman (drafted 33rd by Buffalo last April) leaving the program than the talent that was coming. The culture continued to wane before it rock bottom last September when Tucker was dismissed amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished the year 4-8 while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that outlier 2021 campaign since that is the team’s only winning season in the last five years — and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. The slide this program has taken from its peak seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio is on defense. Sparty was a top-ten statistical defense in 2017 and 2018 while ranking tied for 18th in YPG Allowed in 2019 in Dantonio’s last season. Yet despite Tucker being a Nick Sagan protege who had defensive coordinating experience in the NFL and at Georgia, the defense collapsed in his tenure at East Lansing. Michigan State ranked 54th in total defense in his first season with the team before falling to 111th and 100th in his final two full seasons with the team. All of this is to say that the rebuilding project for the new head coach, Jonathan Smith, is enormous. Twelve players entered the transfer portal last April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Only seven of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps returned. Smith brought in 15 transfers to bolster that side of the ball. The back seven should be capable enough, but the defensive line is a big question mark. Another significant problem is the offensive line with only two returning starters being joined by just three transfers. The unit has a mere 31 starts at the FBS level to start the season. Smith did bring former four-star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State — but he takes over an offense that ranked 128th and 125th in the nation by scoring 15.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 289.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Smith’s reputation at Oregon State was that he could do more with less — and the Beavers had an 18-8 record in the last two seasons. But the cupboard is close to bare when it comes to high-end talent in now what is a super league Big Ten. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time — and the “more with less” dogma grew stale under Dantonio less than a decade ago with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to elite talent particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense. NOTRE DAME: Excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. STANFORD: Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. A 3-9 campaign ensued with Stanford getting outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. But there were bright spots. The Cardinal pulled off upsets against Colorado and Washington State. Dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels showed flashes with 11 touchdown passes. Sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanorcaught 62 balls for 1013 receiving yards in Taylor’s fast-paced stretch Air Raid offense. With four starters back, Stanford may have the most improved offensive line in the country. But the defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG. Fifteen of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return with the hope that a second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April will lead to a significant growth spurt. Taylor has improved recruiting — they ranked 31st and 27th respectively by 247 Sports and Rivals for their 2024 class. He is not attempting to take shortcuts in the transfer portal (which simply may not be an option for a school like Stanford) so things remain a long-term project. The Cardinal will be better — the question is how many steps can they Take in Year Two under Taylor. TCU: The Regression Gods were expected to make their presence felt on this program that won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession en route to their appearance in the National Championship Game (before Georgia threw cold water on the entire project in their 65-7 victory). Head coach Sonny Dykes gambled on the transfer portal again after enjoying the surprising success in 2022-23 — but this time TCU finished just 5-7 while losing all four games decided by one score. The Horned Frogs return 16 starters from last year — and Dykes once again was aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 20 new players in the window, the most ever yet in his three years. This is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. No one expected TCU to reach the College Football Playoff two years ago. But culture cannot be taken for granted — and the turnstile mentality can quickly turn this sour in that environment. What has been consistent under Dykes going back to his three seasons at SMU is an underwhelming defense. The Horned Frogs ranked 94th in the FBS in the championship game run by allowing 408.2 Yards-Per-Game (they outlasted Michigan 51-45 in the Playoff Semifinals benefiting from two pick-sixes). Last year, allowed 408.3 YPG which dropped them to 100th in the nation (despite their remarkable consistency of ineptitude). Dykes hired former Boise State head coach and Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos to run the defense this year. Nine starters return along with 12 new transfer players with Avalos moving from the Gary Patterson staple 3-3-5 defense for this program the last 25 or so years to a 4-2-5 scheme. But this unit is no longer producing NFL players on that side of the ball as they were when Patterson ran the program. The wide receiver room is loaded — but the offensive line is rebuilt and the quarterback situation remained unsettled after fall practice. After ranking ninth by scoring 38.8 Points-Per-Game two years ago, they fell to 31.3 PPG last year — and that touchdown difference was the difference between winning six of seven close games and losing all four of their close games given that defense. Stands to reason that if TCU cannot increase their scoring average from last year, this will remain basically a .500 team (which is what they may have been in their title game run, except for several blessings from the (fickle) Football Gods. TEXAS A&M: Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. He inherits a roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. USC: The Trojans move on from quarterback Caleb Williams — but head coach Lincoln Riley is the Quarterback Whisperer whose offenses have all ranked no worse than seventh in the nation going back to his tenure at Oklahoma. We don’t know yet if Miller Moss, who won the quarterback job in fall camp, will develop into Riley’s fourth Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. The redshirt junior demonstrated he is capable by passing for 372 yards and six touchdown passes against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl last season. As always for a Riley-coached team, the issue will be the USC defense. The Trojans allowed another five opponents to score at least 41 points against them last season — and that makes it 23 times in his seven years as a head coach despite being at two blue-blood programs at USC and Oklahoma. As usual, Riley was aggressive in the transfer portal adding new talent — the new defensive players have 111 career starts under their belts. But the hope of the transfer portal has always been the preseason rationalization regarding why the Trojans' defense will improve since Riley arrived. Perhaps the dismissal of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and the overhaul of the coaching staff on that side of the ball will finally make the difference. Riley made a great hire by poaching D’Anton Lynn from UCLA. As the Bruins' defensive coordinator last year, he inherited a defense that allowed 29 Points-Per-Game and 403 Yards-Per-Game (ranking 87th in the nation). His defense improved on those numbers by giving up only 18 PPG and 302 YPG (ranking 11th in the nation). Ultimately, for USC to contend in the new Big Ten against elite programs like Ohio State and Michigan, they have to get better on both lines of scrimmage. The defensive line is bigger — but is their future NFL talent like there always is for the Buckeyes and Wolverines? Offensive line play has been suspect since Riley moved to USC as well — and it remains unclear if that unit has improved after making life very difficult for Williams last year. WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game. Best of luck -- Frank.

Champions League Futures (2024/25 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the competition just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the Champions League Title this season. To Win Outright Manchester City +200: Manchester City is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Man City fell short in Champions League last season but they did win the Premier League Title and they still have one of the better squads in all of Europe. Getting back to the Champions League Final will be a big focus for this team this season and they have both the quality and the depth to do so. They have a very nice path in the league phase which could make them the top finisher after 8 matches, but the knockouts are where they could run into some trouble. There are few teams that can give Man City trouble and there is a very good chance that they could end up back in the Final this year, but there is a better option when betting on a team to win this competition. Real Madrid, the defending champions, are a team that has given Man City trouble in the past and if they run into them at any point, Man City could see themselves out of the competition. They have not had the same success in this competition throughout the years either, only winning the 1 Title just 2 seasons ago. There is some value in Man City to win at this price, but they are not the team with the most value in this competition. Real Madrid +350: Real Madrid is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Real Madrid are the defending champions from last season, but they have the quality and the depth in their squad to repeat as champions. They have owned European competition over the last decade and have been very successful in Champions League specifically. The hunger is still going to be there for this team as well, now that they have brought in more talent to improve their already fantastic squad even more. The big signing for Real Madrid this summer was Kylian Mbappe so there is going to be hunger to win Champions League again as Mbappe will be looking to do what he failed to do at PSG for years and win the Champions League Title. Real Madrid still has one of the better squads in all of Europe and they even went out improving it this summer with more quality and depth. The motivation will be there and even when they have struggled in league play, they are always a different team when it comes to Champions League as this is the desired competition for them to win. Real Madrid has a lot of value at this price to repeat as champions and lift the trophy once again. Arsenal +800: Arsenal is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal has a very good squad this season and they are off to a strong start in the Premier League. They have the quality and the depth in their squad to make a deep run in this tournament, but last season they struggled and they do not have the experience yet to be consistent like some of the other clubs who dominate. Arsenal has a very good defense that will carry them far, but their attack can struggle to break down opposing defenses at times and that will be a big issue the deeper they go as the defenses get better. Arsenal could very well make a deep run in this tournament, but getting to the Final will be a difficult task for them as they do not have the Champions League pedigree. There is some value in Arsenal at this price, but eventually they will run into a stronger team that takes them out, they are not a true contender to win this competition this season. Bayern Munich +1200: Bayern Munich is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Bayern Munich made a deep run in Champions League last season, but they were stopped short in the Semi Final by Real Madrid who went on to win the tournament. Bayern once again has a very talented squad with lots of quality and depth, but they have a lot to focus on this season which could leave them in a bit of disarray. Champions League is going to be a big focus for them after getting stopped by the champions in the Semi Final last season, but their focus is also going to be on other competitions as well. Last year, they failed to win the Bundesliga Title as Leverkusen took that from them, and they were also knocked out in the 2nd round of the DFB Pokal, leaving Bayern trophyless for the first time in years. They are going to be focused on winning this competition, but they are also going to be focused on taking the league title back so that could affect them deep into the season as they are making their run. They have also had defensive problems for years with the number of goals they allow, and they have not done much to address those problems which makes them a very vulnerable team deep in the tournament as the competition gets tougher. There is no real value in Bayern Munich to lift the trophy this season. Barcelona +1200: Barcelona is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Barcelona has been a bit of a disaster both on the pitch and off over the last few years. They are slowly turning things around though and they are off to a good start in La Liga this season. They are going to be focused on winning this competition as they always are, but they have not really been a true threat in Champions League over the last few years. They have a lot of quality in their starting XI but the bench lacks quality with their depth. They have also fumbled the ball in their own domestic league over the last few years so they are also going to be focused on winning the La Liga Title. They play in the same league as the defending champions Real Madrid so Barcelona will know how to handle them in this competition, but there are other teams that can give Barcelona a lot of trouble as well. They are slowly getting themselves back on track after years of disaster and this might be the year they take La Liga back, but they are going to need some more time to build this squad if they want to be a true threat in Champions League once again. There is no real value in Barcelona to win this competition this season. Liverpool +1400: Liverpool is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Liverpool is off to a good start in the Premier League this season and they have been one of the better teams in the league recently. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad, but it has not changed much from last season. There have been some changes in the midfield and on defense, but the core of this team has pretty much stayed the same. The only new thing this season is their new manager who has replaced Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool has the quality to make a deep run in this competition, something they were not given a chance at last season. They were not in Champions League last season as they did not qualify, instead qualifying for Europa League. They failed to win Europa League as they were knocked out by the eventual champions Atalanta, but motivation to win a competition like Europa League is always in question for a bigger club like Liverpool that considers itself more Champions League quality. This year they are going to have the chance and after sitting out last season, motivation will be at an all-time high for them. They have struggled to compete with Man City for the Premier League Title the last few seasons, but this competition will always be a focus for them, especially with their new manager. Liverpool could very well make a deep run in this competition and go to the Final, but there are also better teams that they could run into which will give them trouble. The motivation factor along with the talent makes them a nice dark horse to win this competition as the possibility is there, but they are not the best option to lift the trophy this season. RecommendationThere are other teams on the list who are very good teams with a lot of quality, but none of them have the quality of these top 6 contenders nor the experience to make a deep run to the Final. There are plenty of teams that have the potential to make deep runs this season, but only 1 team can lift the trophy and the defending champions still have the best shot at that with the improvements they have made. Real Madrid at +350 has the most value for a team to win this competition this season as they really do have the best chance and the strongest squad. Liverpool at +1400 has some value as a dark horse as well.

2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview

by Matt Fargo

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and NFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Detroit Lions: 10.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ NFC North Winner +130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,200Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC North Winner +230 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,800Chicago Bears: 8.5 Over -160 Under +130 ~ NFC North Winner +280 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,500Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ NFC North Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000 Coaching ChangesNone Team Previews Detroit Lions: 14-6 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 14-6-0 ATS ~ 13-7-0 O/UWon the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Championship2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 11 Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, DE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Amik Robertson Notable Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Josh Reynolds, G Jonah Jackson, DE Romeo Okwara, DE Julian Okwara, CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Notable Draft Selections: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, OT Giovanni Manu, S Sione Vaki It did not take head coach Dan Campbell very long to move this franchise in the right direction as he inherited a mess and went 3-13 in his first season but bounced right back with the Lions first winning record in four seasons by going 9-8 and then last season, they were on the verge of their first ever trip to the Super Bowl but a second half meltdown in the NFC Championship left them saying what could have been. There is no sulking as Detroit is still one of the favorites to win the NFC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and if the defense can take it a step forward, the Lions could be right there again. The division has improved as a whole as evidenced by the win totals and the NFC North odds but it will be Detroit's to lose. They extended the contracts of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two leaders of the offense that finished No. 6 in Offensive EPA and also No. 6 in both Rushing and Passing EPA. The former is due to the breakout season from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and along with David Montgomery, the Lions have one of the best back duos in the league that runs behind one of the better offensive lines. The defense allowed 45 fewer ypg than 2022 but allowed nearly the same amount of points as they had some good games but offset those with some poor efforts, allowing 28 or more points seven times. The Lions could not stop the pass but upgraded with two solid draft picks along with signing cornerback Carlton Davis. Detroit was a public betting darling last year as following that 9-8 season in 2022, the Lions went from +12,500 that year to win the Super Bowl to +2,200 last year and now the Lions come in at +1,200 and will be heavily bet again following their first division title in 30 yards and that NFC Championship run. They do have the roster to make it happen but the value is shot. The Lions won the division by three games last season and it likely will be a lot closer this year but the odds are relatively the same, going from +135 to +130 so this could be the way to go. The schedule is not easy playing the NFC West and AFC South while the three crossover games are all against playoff teams from last season. Their 10.5 win total is the highest in franchise history. Green Bay Packers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 11-8-0 ATS ~ 11-8-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 4 Notable Additions: RB Josh Jacobs, OT Andre Dillard, S Xavier McKinney, S Greg Joseph Notable Losses: RB Aaron Jones, TE Joiah Deguara, OT David Bakhtiari, OT Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan, LB D’Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage, S Jonathan Owens Notable Draft Selections: OT Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB/S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, S Evan Williams The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay ended with a non-playoff season in 2022 and while it took new starting quarterback Jordan Love to find his footing last season, he ran with it once he did. The Packers opened 2-5 but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early in the Wild Card Round before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Love started slow as any first year starting quarterback usually does as he posted QB ratings of 88.0 and 65.4 in September and October but put up ratings of 103.1, 107.4 and 128.6 in November, December and January. He looked extremely comfortable down the stretch so maybe it is more about ability and talent and not so much teams not knowing what to expect. Can he keep it going with good but not great wide receivers? The three top receivers, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all talented but none are a true No. 1 but what they lack in fantasy value, they make up for in consistency and Love having the ability to mix and match to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers lost running back Aaron Jones to the Vikings but got Josh Jacobs as a replacement and he arguably has more upside. The defense finished No. 24 in EPA and while they allowed fewer than 20 points seven times, they gave up 30 or more five times and the offense could not bail them out in three of those. This is a quality young team but they do not have that it factor that other teams possess. The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers. With the offense that was so young with first and second year starters, opponents simply did not have much on how to defend but with a year of film, teams should be more prepared. But to their own merit, they are a year older with more experience. Six of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams and the schedule takes a big jump up in strength so it will not be easy. Their three crossover games are against Philadelphia, Miami and New Orleans with none being true road games which helps. The win total seems too high because everyone will only remember the late season surge. Chicago Bears: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 9-8-0 O/UFinished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 29 Notable Additions: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, OT Jake Curhan, G Matt Pryor, C Ryan Bates, C Coleman Shelton, DE Jacob Martin, S Kevin Byard, S Jonathan Owens Notable Losses: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Cody Whitehair, C Lucas Patrick, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, S Eddie Jackson Notable Draft Selections: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegabjige, P Tory Taylor, DE Austin Booker The Bears had their best season with quarterback Justin Fields in his three years but possessing the No. 1 overall draft pick, they decided to move in a different direction. It has been a lousy run for Chicago as it has been to the playoffs only twice since 2011 while finishing with a winning record only twice over that span as well. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well. Williams gives them a young talent who navigates the pocket and makes throws like a veteran and unlike most quarterbacks in Bears history, he will have a great group of receivers to throw to. Considering Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at the age of 24 already has more receiving yards than any player in Bears history, the optimism is real with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze possibly becoming one of the best trios in the league. Chicago has depth at running back after signing D'Andre Swift and this could turn into a potent offense as long as the offensive line can stay healthy which was a problem last season. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg. They will not be that good in 2024 but there is hope that a healthy bunch can do just enough to stay around. While the public loves the Lions once again, they really love the Bears which forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of these odds. While the Bears may be better, the division as a whole is stronger and the Chicago numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up. At +280 to win the division, this is the second lowest number since 2010 with the lowest being 2019 when they were +175 and finished third. This is a hard pass. The Bears are 1-9-1 to the under the last 11 seasons and now they are hit with their fourth highest win total over this stretch. They get the Rams, Commanders and Patriots in the crossover games but finding 9 wins seems aggressive. -114 to miss the playoffs could be the bet. Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 7-7-3 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 18 Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield, C Dan Feeney, DT Jerry Tillery, DE/OLB Jonathan Greenard, DE/OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Shaq Griffin Notable Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Josh Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, WR K.J. Osborn, OT David Quessenberry, G Dalton Risner, DE Danielle Hunter, DE D.J. Wonnum, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Dean Lowry, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Troy Dye, K Greg Joseph Notable Draft Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy, DE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson The Vikings had high hopes last season coming off a 13-win season but that was a façade as they were the luckiest team in the NFL as they went 11-1 in one possession games during the regular season. Flash forward to last season, they opened 0-3, all one possession losses no less, and while they rallied to get to 4-4, quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achillies injury and they could not produce in the second half on the season, finishing on a 1-6 run, the lone win being a 3-0 snoozefest over Las Vegas. Now that Cousins is gone, Minnesota had to decide between Sam Darnold, who is playing for his fourth team in five years, or rookie J.J. McCarthy but it was unfortunately decided when McCarthy was lost for the season with a knee injury. Darnold does have one of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, a solid second option in Jordan Addison and a great tight end in T.J. Hockenson when he gets back to full health. The Vikings upgraded their running back by signing Aaron Jones away from Green Bay and they have a very solid offensive line. But is Darnold really the answer? The defense was horrible from 2020-2022 but they showed improvements last season, going from second worst in total defense to No. 16. Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone so the turnstile the defense has gone through from last season needs to find some players to step up in a highly offensive division. Drafting Dallas Turner was a start. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off. This is because of Darnold who entered the league as a can't miss but he has been just that with his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here and he cannot carry a team on his shoulders into the postseason so every future bet is off the board especially when they are -355 to miss the playoffs. The Giants, Jets and Falcons are the crossovers so that is one win and trying to locate six others is a stretch. The under at plus money is a look.

Champions League 2024/25 Season (League Phase Betting)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the league phase just around the corner now, it is time to see what value can be found with qualifying teams in the League Phase. League Phase Winner Real Madrid +500: Real Madrid is +500 to finish the League Phase in 1st place with the most points. They are the defending champions of the competition, but they also improved their squad in the summer. They take this competition very seriously as they have dominated it over the last few years, and they also finished the group stage last season with a perfect 6-0-0 record. They have a favorable path in the League Phase with their 8 matches as well. Real Madrid could easily win all 4 of their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs that they were drawn against. There is also a very good chance that they pull away 6 points from the 2 home matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 teams. That would leave them with 18 points from 6 matches and there is a good chance they are going to get points from the 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs as well. Real Madrid could be sitting at the top of the league phase with 20+ points after 8 matches and they have a very good defense that will help improve their goal differential if they finish tied with any teams on points. For these reasons, there is a lot of value in Real Madrid at +500 to top the League Phase after the 8 matches have been played. Top 8 Finish in League Phase Liverpool -138: Liverpool is -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but they have a very good chance of making that happen. Liverpool did not qualify for Champions League last season as they were not a top 4 team in the Premier League the season prior, but they improved a lot last season and they are not going to take this opportunity for granted now that they are back in the competition. Focus will be very high for this squad, and they have the quality to be a top 8 finisher. The two strongest teams that they drew in the League Phase are Real Madrid and Leverkusen, but both of those matches are going to be at home which favors Liverpool as they could get some points from those. Their away matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 clubs will be tough as well, but RB Leipzig is a team they can get a point from and AC Milan is a team they could grab all 3 from, even being away from home. Then they have their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs which they could collect full points from. They have a lot more quality than teams like Girona and PSV, and their 2 stronger opponents in Bologna and Lille are both home matches. Liverpool could come out of this League Phase with around 18 points and that would be enough to get them into the top 8. There is value in Liverpool at -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase. Barcelona -134: Barcelona is -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they have both the quality in their squad as well as a softer path to make that happen. Their home match against Bayern Munich is going to be their toughest match on the schedule, but being at home gives them a better chance to get something from that match. They also get the Europa League champions Atalanta, but that match is also at home. Their 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs are against Dortmund and Benfica respectively, but those are both matches they could collect all 3 points in, or at least get something from it. Their pot 3/pot 4 draws consist of BSC Young Boys, Crvena Zvezda, Stade Brest, and Monaco. Monaco away from home will be the toughest of those 4 matches, but they could very well collect all 12 points from those matches with the quality they have. Barcelona may get tripped up in the knockout stages of this competition, but they still have a lot of quality in their starting XI and their draw in this League Phase makes them a good pick to finish in the top 8 with the softer path. There is value in Barcelona at -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase. Bayer Leverkusen +130: Bayer Leverkusen is +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they are coming off of a very good season in which they were dominant. They won the Bundesliga Title as well as the DFB Pokal in their domestic league, and they also went to the Final of Europa League which they lost to Atalanta. They were a dominant team in Europa League all season though and after winning the Bundesliga Title last season, they will be turning their focus to Champions League this year. They did not improve their squad much in the summer, but they retained a lot of the quality they had last season and were considered one of the better teams in Europe all year under Xabi Alonso. They are going to be a threat in this competition and they do not have a tough path in the League Phase either. Their toughest match in the League Phase will be their away match against Liverpool. They have another tough match against Inter Milan, but that match is at home making it more likely that they still pick up points from it. Their home match against AC Milan is a match they can definitely win and their away match against Atletico Madrid could net them some points as well. Then they have away matches against Brest and Feyenoord as well as home matches against RB Salzburg and Sparta Prague, but all of those matches are winnable so there is a good chance they can take 12 points from those or at least 10. Between the quality of this squad from last season and the path they have in the League Phase, there is value in Leverkusen at +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase. Atalanta +400: Atalanta is +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but this is a team that has defied the odds over the last year. They had a great season in Serie A last year, finishing in 4th place, and they won the Europa League Title as well. They improved their squad by bringing in some more attacking talent when they already have a lot of quality in that area. They have also been a strong away team that has had no trouble picking up points and wins away from home, and that is going to be crucial in this League Phase qualifying. They have a bit of a gauntlet to go through with their pot 1/pot2 matches, but they still have a chance to pull some points from those. They face Arsenal and Real Madrid but both of those matches are at home which will soften the blow. They also have an away match against Barcelona which will be difficult, but their away match against Shakhtar Donetsk is definitely a winnable match. They are also going to excel against the weaker team as they face Celtic and Sturm Graz at home, both matches they should easily win, and they face BSC Young Boys as well as Stuttgart away from home, both of those being teams they can beat away from home as well. Atalanta has a very favorable path against the weaker teams and they are the Europa League champions from last season so the next step for them is to try and win Champions League this season. They may not make a deep run in the competition, but their ability to consistently pick up points away from home will be key in this tournament and they have a very good chance of finishing in the top 8 as one of the final teams. There is value in Atalanta at +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase. Top Team in League Phase Domestically Bundesliga - Bayern Munich +110: Bayern Munich is +110 to finish with the most points in the League Phase out of all the teams that play in the German Bundesliga. Bayern Munich is going to be a team that finishes in the top 8 as this is a competition they will be focused on, but Champions League is also a competition that they have made some deep runs in. They went to the Semi Final last season before getting knocked out by eventual champions Real Madrid, and they are going to be a force in this League Phase with the weaker path they have. Bayern is going to be focused on being the best team in Germany this year after going trophyless last season, and they have the quality to collect around 20 points from these 8 matches. Dortmund and RB Leipzig also have tougher paths so that is going to help Bayern finish ahead in points. Leverkusen could be the closest German team to challenge them, but that will only motivate them more seeing Leverkusen’s success. Bayern has the experience to go deep into this tournament and they will dominate the League Phase as they did go 5-1-0 in last season’s group stage. There is value in Bayern Munich at +110 to finish with the most points out of all the German clubs. La Liga - Real Madrid -120: Real Madrid is -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in the Spanish La Liga. Real Madrid are the defending champions of this competition from last season, but they have also dominated Champions League over the last few years. They were a perfect 6-0-0 in the group stage last season and they have a very good chance at being the team that finishes with the most points after the League Phase out of all the teams in the competition. They improved their squad this season with even more quality and they also have a lot of depth as well. They will be focused on repeating as the champions, but they also have a much weaker path which is going to help them rack up points in the League Phase. Their pot 1/po2 matches consist of Dortmund, Liverpool, AC Milan, and Atalanta, but none of those teams are a real daunting threat for Real Madrid. There is a very good chance that they finish with around 20 points after the League Phase is done, and they even have the possibility to go a perfect 8-0-0 between the strength of the path and the strength of their squad. There is a lot of value in Real Madrid at -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in La Liga.

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