Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Top 10 College Football Rankings - Week 5

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The PAC 12 Dominates this Poll. 1. USC USC had a very rusty performance coming off a bye week. Although the defense gave up too many big plays against a shaky offense and struggled at times with tackling, this unit did create plenty of havoc (eight sacks and 14 TFL). USC quarterback Caleb Williams still owns a clean line of 300 passing yards per game with 15 TDs and no interceptions. We expect USC to prove why it’s one of the best teams in college football. Now, it's the Trojans turn to face Colorado and take advantage of their talents. 2. Texas The Texas Longhorns have come out of the gate slow a few times this season, but what matters is they’re finishing with victories. The Longhorns are 4-0 for the first time since ’12. Quarterback Quinn Ewers was efficient (18 of 23 for 293 yards and one touchdowns), while the defense dominated (allowed just 4.3 yards per play) in a 38-6 victory at Baylor. The upcoming two-week stretch against Kansas and Oklahoma could allow Texas to take control of the Big 12 race. 3. Oregon The defense allowed just 199 yards and six points to a Buffaloes’ attack that entered Saturday scoring 41.3 points per contest. Total domination. That’s the easiest way to sum up Oregon’s 42-6 win over Colorado. The Ducks rank seventh in the FBS with 232 rushing yards per game, and the defense totaled seven sacks of Shedeur Sanders. The Ducks averaged 7.2 yards per play behind a standout performance from quarterback Bo Nix (28 of 33 for 276 yards). The Ducks face Stanford (/27.5) in Week 5. 4. Ohio St The Buckeyes won a thriller in South Bend, as running back Chip Trayanum scored a touchdown with one second remaining to secure a 17-14 road victory. We talked about Ohio State's defense, and that's was the substance behind Day's postgame rant after the Notre Dame victory. Quarterback Kyle McCord continued his development with a couple of clutch throws late and finished with 240 yards on 21 completions. Ohio State will have a bye week to prepare for that Big Ten schedule. 5. Florida St The Seminoles beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime. Florida State’s defense surrendered 429 yards and struggled on third downs (six conversions on 14 attempts), but a fumble return for a touchdown by this unit, along with timely plays by quarterback Jordan Travis and receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson helped the ‘Noles end a seven-game losing streak to Clemson. The two marquee wins are pushing the Seminoles even further up the latest college football rankings. The bad news? Florida State rushed for JUST 22 yards on 22 attempts, a problem that could resurface against an elite front-line defense. 6. Michigan The Wolverines had a sluggish start against Rutgers but pulled away for a 31-7 victory in coach Jim Harbaugh’s return to the sidelines after a three-game suspension. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 214 yards on 15 completions. It's the first road game of the season playing at Nebraska. Should Jim Harbaugh be very concerned, Michigan’s schedule sets up for this team to be 9-0 in November when it faces Penn State. That will be the Wolverines’ first test of the season. 7. Georgia The Georgia Bulldogs haven’t been quite as impressive in 2023 as they were a year ago. The Bulldogs have yet to put together a complete performance, but as coach Kirby Smart’s team has showed at several points so far in '23, it can turn it on when needed to put an opponent away. Kirby Smart needs to preach the importance of fast starts this week. Smart’s defense remains one of the best in college football, Carson Beck is proving to be extremely efficient and the three-headed tandem at running back should keep the Bulldogs undefeated through October. Auburn (-14.5) is on deck. 8. Washington Another week, another elite offensive performance by the Huskies. Washington used 304 passing yards and four scores by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to crush California 59-32. Should the Huskies be ranked higher? Washington leads the FBS with 593.2 yards per game, and Michael Penix (209.58) has the second-highest passer efficiency rating behind USC's Caleb Williams. Washington faces an improved Arizona (-18.5) in Week 5, so they can't look ahead. 9. Penn St Thanks to a strong effort on both sides of the ball, Penn State thoroughly dominated Iowa in a 31-0 win on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions allowed only 76 yards and limited the Hawkeyes to just four first downs. Quarterback Drew Allar was sharp (25 of 37 for 166 yards and four scores) against one of the Big Ten’s top defenses and guided the Penn State offense to three touchdowns in the second half. Penn State has the other elite Big Ten defense in the mix. The Nittany Lions have allowed 15 points or less in all four of their games, including the shutout against Iowa. Are we under-valuing the Nittany Lions a touch? 10. Utah Without quarterback Cam Rising for the fourth consecutive game, Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes pulled out another victory. Utah continues to grind out victories under the radar. Utah’s defense dominated in a 14-7 victory over UCLA. The Utes limited the Bruins to 243 yards (3.6 yards per snap), recorded seven sacks and 11 tackles for a loss, and allowed just three third-down conversions on 16 attempts. Quarterback Cam Rising continues to rehab a torn ACL, and Nate Johnson continues to do enough to win games in his place. Utah travels to Oregon State as a (+3.5) underdog for a Friday nightmatchup.

College Football's Game Five Nosedive

by Tom Stryker

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

College Football’s Game 5 NosediveAs we approach the halfway point of the college football season, a number of squads have been put on notice. Are you going to be a pretender or a contender? With most FBS teams scheduled to play 12 regular season games, that needs to be determined as quickly as possible or it might be too little too late. Before the mid-point of the season hits next week, I researched how well teams did in a game five settings. There were a number of things that I looked at, but none more important than those schools that owned a critical .500 record. In my opinion, college teams sitting at 2-2 SU after four games were locked into a must-win situation. It was my expectation that these squads would do very well both SU and ATS. The best of what I discovered was far from that. As you know, with the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of outstanding technical situations that have performed very well. My “College Football’s Game Five Nosedive” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of profit over the years. Take a look at this beauty. Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any 2-2 SU game five college favorite priced at -4.5 or more provided they are playing a conference foe and check in without confidence off back-to-back straight up losses. 43-Year ATS Record = 39-13-2 ATS for 75.0 percent This Week’s Play = MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE Surprisingly, these conference favorites in need of a win to get off the .500 mark continue to tank provided they take the field of battle without momentum off a pair of straight up losses. After knocking the snot out of South Florida and Houston Christian, Western Kentucky has fallen on hard times in its last two games against Ohio State and Troy. The knee-jerk reaction would be to jump all over the Hilltoppers thinking they would bounce back. According to this college system, that is exactly what you don’t want to do. There is one special parameter that can be added to this situation that really makes it pop. If our “play against” side was priced as a favorite or a short underdog of +6 or less in its last game, this system falls to a woeful 6-24-1 ATS. Western Kentucky was a +4-point pooch at Troy last Saturday and the Hilltoppers apply to this negative wagering situation. Good Luck with MTSU plus the points at WKU on Thursday evening.

Vancouver Canucks Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Vancouver Canucks' fans annually get excited around this time of the year. In late September, their team always provides reason for hope. Yet, year after year, that hope and excitement fades away. Will this season be any different? Vancouver got off to an 0-7 start to its 2022/23 season. Things were bad from the get-go. The Canucks didn't get their first win until 10/27. They ended up missing the playoffs. Again. The last time they made the postseason was 2020. They've been there 28 times in 52 years. The current preseason got off to an ominous start when Vancouver lost 10-0 to Calgary. Coach Rich Tocchet commented: “I know people don’t want to hear it, but it’s a learning experience.”There is reason for hope though. The Canucks have a legitimate star in Elias Pettersson. Vancouver's best player gets it done at both ends of the ice. He finished with 102 points last year. Captain Quinn Hughes anchors a blue line which is stronger and deeper than it's been in recent seasons. The Canucks are counting on a bounce-back season from goalie Thatcher Demko. He was great when the Canucks last made the playoffs but struggled last year. The improvement behind the blue line should help Demko's cause. The Canucks are currently about +1400 to win their division and +2300 to win the West. They're going to be better but they won't be good enough to win the division or conference. They do seem like a solid bet to go over their projected number of 88.5 regular season points though. If they do that, a return to the playoffs is likely in the cards ... Will Rogers

Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/28/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, and MLB action.Week 4 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Detroit Lions traveling to Green Bay to play the Packers on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Lions raised their record to 2-1 with a 20-6 victory at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. The Packers improved to 2-1 with their 18-17 upset victory at home against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit is a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings).The fifth week in NCAAF college football begins with one game on national television between FBS opponents. Two NCAAF games kick off at 7:30 PM ET. Tulsa hosts Temple on ESPN. The Golden Hurricane have a 2-2 record after their 22-14 upset victory at Northern Illinois as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. The Owls fell to 2-2 with a 41-7 loss to Miami (Florida) as a 22.5-point underdog on Saturday. Tulsa is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Western Kentucky plays at home against Middle Tennessee on the CBS Sports Network. The Hilltoppers are on a two-game losing streak after their 27-24 loss at Troy as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Blue Raiders fell to 1-3 this season with their 31-23 upset loss to Colorado State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Western Kentucky is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 60.5.Jacksonville State is at Sam Houston State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Gamecocks raised their record to 3-1 with their 21-0 victory against Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Bearkats are winless in their first three games after their 38-7 loss at Houston as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Jacksonville State is a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 36.5. Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the Oakland A’s at 1:10 PM ET as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play in Detroit against the Tigers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Philadelphia to play the Phillies at 6:05 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play in Baltimore against the Orioles at 6:35 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Miami Marlins travel to New York toplay the Mets at 7:10 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs play in Atlanta against the Braves at 7:20 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:40 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

NCAA FB: 4 Winless ATS Teams Who Might Be Underrated Now

by Kyle Hunter

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are winless against the spread so far this year. These are teams that I believe could have value moving forward. Georgia Bulldogs (0-3-1 ATS) Who would have expected that the number one team in the country would be winless against the spread at this point in the season? Georgia has played a very weak schedule. UT Martin, Ball State, and UAB are all terrible teams. South Carolina is the only pretty good team they have played so far. Georgia screwed around in that game and they were down 14-3 going into the locker room. They flipped the switch in the second half and won. The Bulldogs are just 51st in yards per carry against this weak schedule. They only have five sacks on the season defensively. The Bulldogs stat profile isn’t great. Having said all of this, Georgia is the most talented team in the country. The Bulldogs are going to turn it on at some point. Michigan Wolverines (0-4 ATS) Here is #2 in the nation! Michigan has typically been a team that crushes weaker opponents. The Wolverines were amazing in the large favorite role in the last six or eight years under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh missed the first three games due to his suspension. Maybe that bothered the team and threw off the rhythm a bit. Michigan is still a great team, and the Wolverines are now not thought of as highly in the marketplace. The Wolverines are really strong in the trenches, and that should help them win and cover a lot of games in the poor weather games in the Big Ten. I’m not going to adjust Michigan much at all in my power ratings. Harbaugh’s team will get it going against the spread too. UTSA Roadrunners (0-4 ATS) UTSA is a team I expected to be very good this year. So far this season I’ve been wrong on this bunch. They are winless ATS on the season, but they have a bye week this weekend and the hope is Frank Harris will be back soon. Harris is a star, but he has been hobbled this year, and the backups had to play against Tennessee. UTSA’s schedule gets much softer later this year. The Roadrunners still play UAB, E Carolina, Rice, and USF at home. UTSA still has a much higher talent level than many of the teams they will play against in this conference. I think we’ll have a chance to buy low on UTSA soon. Troy Trojans (0-4 ATS) Troy was a covering machine last year. Now, they are 0-4 ATS so far this season. Troy doesn’t have an elite defense like they had last year, but they are still very solid on the defensive end. The Trojans offensive line has been abused by strong defensive lines in the non-conference slate. While it will still be a question mark, there are quite a few weaker defensive lines in the Sun Belt on their schedule the rest of the way.

Week 4 College FB Observations: Blue Bloods in Football, Now

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina.Just saying those school names brings out the Blue Blooded Basketball lover in me.That said, don't look now, but these may not be College Basketball-only schools any longer.The four schools with a combined 23 national championships on the hardwood, each with at least four titles, come into this weekend with a combined 16-0 mark in College Football.Let's start with North Carolina, which is 4-0 behind a steady offense that has scored no less than 31 points in each game this season. And that's come against the 18th-toughest schedule to date, per TeamRankings.com. After splitting their first four games of the season with two each at home and on the road, the Heels are in an advantageous situation of becoming bowl-eligible over the next month, as they'll play three straight in Chapel Hill after enjoying Saturday's bye.Kansas has also provided a steady diet of offense, scoring at least 31 points in all four games, thanks to a power rushing game that is rumbling for the nation's 12th-best 217.8 yards per game. The Jayhawks opened Big 12 play with a 38-27 win over conference newcomer BYU. They've been one of the more efficient teams with a third-down conversion that ranks No. 1 in the country (60.5%) and No. 11 with their Red Zone offense (95.0%).Kentucky has a tough sandwich home game this week, after opening SEC play last week in Tennessee against Vanderbilt. The Wildcats beat the Commodores, 45-28, and now come home to play arch-rival Florida before heading to Athens to play two-time defending champion Georgia next week. If there is an area concern with Kentucky, outside of its defensive efficiency up front, it'll have to clean things up with penalties. The 'Cats rank 116th with 8.0 penalties per game and 108th with 68 penalty yards per contest.Duke's 4-0 start to the season includes its impressive and still-talked-about season-opening win over Clemson, a 28-7 victory that is still reverberating. The Blue Devils' stifling defense could have its hands full this week, though, as it welcomes Notre Dame to town.Here are more College Football Observations heading into Week 5:DOWN TO FIVE - There are just five teams that remain 4-0 ATS this season, including a pair of surprises from Group of 5 conferences.Joining Oklahoma, Oregon and Penn State in the undefeated ranks at the betting window are Liberty and UNLV.It was unsure how Liberty was going to react with coach Huge Freeze leaving for Auburn, but the Flames haven't skipped a beat with an explosive offense that is scoring 40.0 points per game - 16th-highest in the nation. Their 11th-best offense is gaining 501.0 yards per game and now gets to rest before playing back-to-back games against reclassifying teams Sam Houston and Jacksonville State.UNLV is playing well under first-year coach Barry Odom, who has brought an SEC mentality to Rebel Park and produced a winning culture that has the 3-1 Rebels talking bowl eligibility. UNLV has already played two Power 5 teams in Michigan and Vanderbilt, and now opens Mountain West play against an underachieving Hawai'i team. The Rebels are laying -11 to the Rainbow Warriors this week.As for the powerhouses, we're talking about three of the top 15 scoring offenses in the nation. Oregon is scoring a nation's second-best 54.0 points per game, Oklahoma is checking in at No. 4 with 46.8 ppg., and Penn State is scoring 40.5 ppg.Oregon is laying -27 on the road at Stanford this week., Oklahoma is -20 at home against Iowa State, and Penn State is also laying -27 on the road, at Northwestern.RAM TOUGH? - After all that chatter to rile up Colorado, only to lose to the Buffaloes in overtime, the Colorado State Rams responded nicely with a 31-23 road win at Middle Tennessee. Problem is for the Rams and their inconsistent offense that returns to Fort Collins for a tough sandwich home game against Utah Tech is they could be without their top two running backs, Avery Morrow and Kobe Johnson. Bad enough the Rams rank 129th in the nation with 57.3 yards rushing per game, now they may have inexperience in the backfield when hosting the Utah Tech Thunderbirds this week.Utah Tech may be an FCS afterthought, but the T-Birds have had this game circled for weeks, and could prove to be more than a paycheck grab visit. If Utah Tech can get its passing game going against Colorado State's shaky pass defense, it might be wise to peep what should be a healthy underdog line from the extra board.RED ZONE - It's one thing to think about how teams perform in the Red Zone, as it's always important to consider efficiency when a team gets inside the 20-yard line. But it's equally important to see how defensive unis perform in the Red Zone.The Top 5 may shock some people, but it is no surprise if those on that list remain undefeated.The No. 1 Red Zone D is Syracuse, with opponents getting into the zone just four times in nine trips, a 44.4% conversion. The Orange's staunch effort on D should provide them with confidence when hosting Clemson this week.All tied at 50.0% are Power 5 schools Duke, Michigan and Texas. While Michigan has allowed opponents inside the 20 just six times, Duke and Texas have allowed teams to get into the Red Zone 10 times.Rounding out the first five is Sun Belt-member Georgia State, which has seen opponents get past its 20-yard line 13 times, and allowing only seven scores (five TDs, two FGs), a 53.8% clip.CHALK CHECK-IN - Laying between 11 and 14.5 points paid off last week, as favorites in that range went 6-2. Across the regular board games, underdogs edged out the favorites, going 31-29.Underdogs dominated the low-chalk category, covering eight of the 11 games that lines between 1 and 3.5, outside of a couple of pushes.Every week I'll update you with regular board games (no FCS or added), broken down into different point-spread ranges. There were a few pushes this week and a pk'em game to consider, but through Week 4, favorites are 105-103 with the following breakdown: 1-3 1/2 ............ 17-19 4-7 1/2 ........... 27-26 8-10 1/2 ........... 9-10 11-14 1/2 .......... 15-11 15-19 1/2 .......... 10-9 20 and up ...... 27-28

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/27/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. The Diamondbacks send out Brandon Pfaadt to take the mound to face a White Sox pitcher yet to be named. Arizona is a -175 money-line road favorite, with the total set at 9.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Miami Marlins play in New York against the Mets in the opening game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET. Braxton Garrett takes the ball for the Marlins to face a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Mets. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Cincinnati, with the Guardians turning to Shane Bieber to pitch against the Reds’ Andrew Abbott. The Guardians are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Tampa Bay plays at Boston, with Tyler Glasnow taking the ball for the Rays to battle Bryan Bello for the Red Sox. The Rays are a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Washington Nationals at 6:35 PM ET. The Orioles send out Grayson Rodriguez to duel against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. Baltimore is a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Two MLB games start at 6:40 PM ET. Detroit is at home against Kansas City, with Tarik Skubal getting the ball for the Tigers to face Jonathan Bowman for the Royals. The Tigers are a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Philadelphia hosts Pittsburgh with the Phillies tapping Ranger Suarez to go against the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo. The Phillies are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees are in Toronto to play the Blue Jays at 7:07 PM ET. Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the Yankees to face Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays. Both teams are priced at -110 with a total of 7. The Marlins visit the Mets at 7:10 PM ET in the second game of their doubleheader. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves send out Darius Vines to pitch against the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon. Atlanta is a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Two MLB games start at 7:40 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against Oakland, with Pablo Lopez taking the mound for the Twins to battle against Joey Estes for the A’s. The Twins are a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee hosts St. Louis, with the Brewers sending out Wade Miley to face the Cardinals’ Zach Thompson. The Brewers are a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. Emmet Sheehan takes the hill for the Dodgers to duel against Noah Davis for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -218 money-line road favorite with a total of 11.5. The Texas Rangers visit Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Rangers turn to Dane Dunning to pitch against the Angels’ Griffin Canning. Texas is a -168 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros play in Seattle against the Mariners at 9:40 PM ET. Framber Valdez takes the ball for the Astros to go against Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Houston is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the San Diego Padres at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants tap Sean Manaea to face the Padres’ Matt Waldron. San Francisco is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.

VW's Weekly Recap: Bounce Back Week Starts With WNBA Top Prop

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Sep 26, 2023

Time for the weekly recap, as I take a look back at the week that was.Since last Tuesday, I'm on a 5-7-2 roll in every sport and am down -$2,550. Complete transparency, right? It is what it is.That said, I went 5-4-2 in both college and pro football since last Tuesday, and even further, was 1-1 with a win on my NFL Game of the Month (Chiefs) and a loss on my NFL Total of the Month (Bills-Commanders Over).The latter was troubling for me, considering Eric Bienemy is the offensive coordinator for the Commanders and he couldn't get anything going when he'd done just fine with Kansas City's offense in years past against the Bills.I went 1-2 with College Conference Games of the Month, hitting Utah out of the Pac-12.Overall, College Football continues to be impressive since Week 0, as I'm enjoying a 15-8-1 run for +$6,220 net profit since Aug. 31. For the season (L30 days on the leaderboard), I'm ranked No. 1 in net profit ($4,240) and win percentage (65.2%).Breaking down favorites and dogs, I've hit two of the three underdogs I've released and am 12-5-1 with favorites.Sitting at 10-6-2 in the NFL, I'm now 4-1 with underdogs - all four victories winning outright.As for MLB action, a 0-1 week didn't help the profits I've built in football. Good news is, that losing streaks don't last and things are setting up nicely for a huge comeback this week - beginning with Tuesday's Interleague Monster Mismatch.The WNBA is in the semifinals, and while we have a pair of Game 2s tipping off tonight, I like one particular player prop for Tuesday night.Do yourselves a favor and grab my WNBA Player Prop of the Year.Be sure to check back Wednesday for my College Football observations and Thursday for my NFL Power Rankings.Let's gear up for a big week of action.

2023-24 NHL Preview: Atlantic Division

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Sep 26, 2023

The NHL preseason is underway and the puck drops for real on the 2023-24 season in two weeks. As we march toward Opening Night on October 10th, I'll run through quick previews of all 32 teams, beginning with the Atlantic Division.Odds to win division courtesy Draft Kings.Toronto Maple Leafs (+200)Yet another disappointing season is in the books for the Maple Leafs but here they are as the favorite to win the Atlantic Division once again, priced almost identically to what we saw at this time last year. We witnessed a sea change of sorts in Toronto during the offseason with GM Kyle Dubas shown the door. Brad Treliving seemingly has a much different vision in Toronto, bringing in a number of sandpaper guys including Tyler Bertuzzi, Ryan Reaves and Max Domi. There's no denying the Leafs are a much deeper team than they were last season but the jury is out as to whether they've accumulated any more talent. While the addition of John Klingberg to the blue line was a step in the right direction, Toronto will undoubtedly be looking to add a piece or two in that department as the season goes on. Joseph Woll stepped up and performed admirably between the pipes down the stretch last season and should push veteran Ilya Samsonov. Boston Bruins (+350)It's the end of an era in Boston as long-time captain Patrice Bergeron announced he was hanging up his skates this Summer. He is one of nine regulars that will need to be replaced this season although none of the other departures will have nearly the same impact. The good news for the Bruins is that they still boast top-end talent led by superstar David Pastrnak and newly-named captain Brad Marchand along with a steady if not spectacular defensive corps. The last line of defense for the B's is a bright spot as well with the duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman returning after a tremendous regular season but disappointing playoffs. Head coach Jim Montgomery is in his second year with the team and that should prove impactful. Florida Panthers (+400)The Panthers enjoyed a Cinderella run all the way to the Stanley Cup Final last June but are being priced as the third-best team in crowded Atlantic Division for a reason. Florida will be forced to start the season without two of its best defensemen in Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour. It also lost a mountain of a man on the back-end in Radko Gudas to the Ducks. That matters on a roster that isn't blessed with a ton of depth on the blue line, even with a number of offseason additions including veteran Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Up front the Cats will once again be led by Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. Again, it's the depth, or lack thereof, that concerns me. In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky regained his form as the playoffs went on before faltering in the Final. He's not getting any younger and next in line is Spencer Knight, who missed last season after entering into the NHLPA Assistance Program, and Anthony Stolarz, who has yet to prove he can succeed at the big league level. Tampa Bay Lightning (+600)It's jarring to see the Lightning this far down the pecking order in the Atlantic Division. The salary cap hasn't been kind to the Bolts as they've been forced to move on from a number of key contributors in recent years, all but ending their chances of a true dynasty in South Florida. Again this offseason Tampa Bay lost a number of key cogs including Alex Killorn, Ross Colton and Ian Cole. The Lightning's list of additions features a number of workman-like players including veteran Conor Sheary. Of course, there's still plenty of reason for optimism as Tampa Bay remains star-studded, if not aging, up front and has a pair of defensive standouts in Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev. Unfortunately injuries have cost that blue line duo a number of games recently and keeping them healthy will be paramount this season. You have to figure goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is in for a strong bounce-back campaign after wearing down last season. Buffalo Sabres (+900)Keeping in mind, the Sabres were priced at +5700 to win the Atlantic Division at this time last year, perhaps they're poised to take a step in the right direction in 2023-24. The needle is definitely pointing up for this team offensively after a breakout year from the likes of Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens last season. With a nice mix of youth and experience on the blue line, including sophomore Owen Power who by all accounts is ready for a breakout season of his own, there's reason to be optimistic that Buffalo can at least contend for a playoff spot this season. Goaltending remains a big question mark with unproven talent between the pipes including prospect Devon Levi who the Sabres are hopeful can take hold of the starting gig. The biggest obstacle for Buffalo might just be the ultra-competitive nature of the Atlantic. Ottawa Senators (+1100)Alex DeBrincat's time in Ottawa was short-lived and as a result the Senators will be looking to replace a good chunk of offensive production from last year's team. Veteran Vladimir Tarasenko was brought in following a failed experiment in Manhattan but it appears he doesn't have a ton of tread left on his tires and I question how long he'll remain happy in Ottawa, especially if the team isn't winning. Much like the Sabres, there is a lot to like when it comes to the Sens with Brady Tkachuk coming off a superstar-caliber season and Jakob Chychrun one of the more underrated defenseman in the entire NHL. Joonas Korpisalo will be tasked with the starting job between the pipes - a position that has proven to be a revolving door in Ottawa in recent years.Detroit Red Wings (+2500)GM Steve Yzerman made a splash by acquiring Alex DeBrincat in the offseason but apart from that, he mostly made minor moves to improve the Red Wings perhaps only marginally this season. Few teams in the league boast less top-end talent than Detroit. It almost seems as if Dylan Larkin's time in the Motor City has been more or less wasted as he's in the prime of his career. There's no question Yzerman will eventually build a winner, just as he did in Tampa Bay, but it's going to take some time. Unless Ville Husso is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat in goal and the Wings blue line ends up over-achieving, this team will be hard-pressed to push for a playoff spot in the Atlantic as there just isn't enough firepower up front. Montreal Canadiens (+20000)The price says it all as the Canadiens are unlikely to climb the ranks in the Atlantic Division this season. The time will come where the Habs are once again considered a contender in the Eastern Conference but it's still likely 2-3 years off. Guys like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield will make Montreal a fun team to watch once again but there are a number of holes in the lineup that need to be plugged. I really like Martin St. Louis as a head coach and believe he's in it for the long haul. Unfortunately he's likely to see a number of key veterans dealt away over the course of the season as the Habs continue their rebuild. I do think we saw some addition by subtraction in the offseason with guys like Mike Hoffman and Jonathan Drouin moving elsewhere. Drouin in particular was never a fit in his home province. Expect plenty of wild, high-scoring games involving Montreal this season with the biggest question marks lying in its own end of the rink.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/26/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 26, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Colorado against the Rockies in the opening game of their doubleheader at 3:10 PM ET. Neither team has yet to name their starting pitcher.The Cincinnati Reds travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET. The Reds send out Hunter Greene to pitch against the Guardians’ Lucas Giolito. Cincinnati is a -112 money-line road favorite with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings). The Baltimore Orioles host the Washington Nationals at 6:35 PM ET. Kyle Bradish takes the ball for the Orioles to pitch against Josiah Gray for the Nationals. Baltimore is a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The Kansas City Royals play in Detroit against the Tigers. The Royals turn to Zack Greinke to face a Tigers starting pitcher yet to be named. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Philadelphia to play the Phillies. Aaron Nola takes the ball for the Phillies to pitch against a Pirates’ starting pitcher yet to be determined. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays tap Kevin Gausman to battle against the Yankees’ Michael King. Toronto is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 7. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays in Boston with Zach Eflin taking the ball for the Rays to pitch against the Tanner Houck for the Red Sox. The Rays are a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Miami is at New York with the Marlins turning to Braxton Garrett to duel against the Mets’ Joey Lucchesi. The Marlins are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Chicago Cubs on TBS at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves tap Bryce Elder to face the Cubs’ Justin Steele. Atlanta is a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Four MLB games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Arizona plays in Chicago with Zach Davies taking the mound for the Diamondbacks to pitch against the Cubs’ Jose Arena. The Diamondbacks are a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Oakland plays in Minnesota with the A’s yet to name a starting pitcher against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. Milwaukee hosts St. Louis with Adrian Houser going to the mound for the Brewers against Zack Thompson for the Cardinals. The Brewers are a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Dodgers play on the road against the Rockies in the second game of their doubleheader at 8:40 PM ET. Los Angeles taps Bobby Miller to duel against a starting pitcher yet to be named for Colorado. The Los Angeles are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:38 PM ET with Reid Detmers on the mound for the Angels against a Rangers’ starting pithcer yet to be named.The San Diego Padres travel to San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 PM ET. The Padres tap Seth Lugo to duel against the Giants’ Kyle Harrison. San Diego is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners plays at home against the Houston Astros on TBS-TV at 10:05 PM ET. George Kirby takes the hill for the Mariners to face Cristian Javier for the Astros. Seattle is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.

Around The Horn

by AAA Sports

Monday, Sep 25, 2023

Each season some of the surviving members of the NFL’s last and only undefeated (including playoffs) team, the 1972 Dolphins, get together and toast each other with champagne when the final unbeaten team takes a loss. In an ironic twist, this year the Old-Timer Dolphins – Bob Griese, Mercury Morris, Marv Fleming, and the like – may be rooting for the present-day Dolphins to lose.The current iteration of the Fins is 3-0, in first place in one of the best divisions in the NFL, and is fresh off putting a 70-20 hurting on the defenseless Broncos. They have it all going as they head into Week 4’s matchup at Buffalo in what will be the most anticipated game of the first quarter of the season.Miami’s offense has been so dominant that the Dolphins scored more points in the Denver game than 17 other teams have scored in three games total this season. Tua Tagoviloa has offensive weapons everywhere he turns, and if he can stay concussion-free (no guarantee there, to be sure), the Fins could have a playoff berth banked by mid-November. Oh, BTW, Miami is also a perfect 3-0 ATS.The Bills, meanwhile, are one team that doesn’t figure to be intimidated by the Dolphins’ flashy offense and numbers. After slipping up in a Week 1 loss to the Jets, the Bills have laid the wood to Las Vegas (38-10) and Washington (37-3). They’ll be ready.Buffalo is a 3-point favorite, with the O/U set at a healthy 49.5.INDUSTRY IS HITTING IT BIGJust a few years removed from Covid lockdowns and closed casinos, the gambling industry has come roaring back in a huge way.Numbers released recently by the American Gaming Association show that commercial casinos just enjoyed their best July ever, with a fat profit of $5.4 billion. That’s not all. The industry is poised to enjoy its best year ever. The black number through seven months was $38 billion, a full 11 percent better than in 2022 and virtually assuring that the number will eclipse last year’s.Why?Two reasons are the American public which is traveling again, plus the opening of several bricks-and-mortar casinos. Increased sports betting also provided a strong wind to the industry’s back, with a mammoth 28 percent jump in revenue over the previous July. Even wagering on baseball, the poor cousin to football and basketball wagering, showed a large boost.The only states that reported declining casino revenues were Mississippi, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, and Louisiana.PENNSYLVANIA TARGETS CASINO SMOKERSIn Pennsylvania, a bill to eliminate smoking in the state’s 18 casinos is winding its way through the state legislature. Currently, a loophole in the state’s 15-year-old Clean Indoor Air Act allows patrons to light up, producing second-hand smoke levels more than five times greater than in smoke-free gambling houses. National studies show that only 11 percent of Americans still smoke.NBA CRACKS DOWN ON LOAD MANAGERSThe NBA’s new policy on load management, which will limit the amount of time teams can rest their star players, should have an interesting impact on gambling lines. Sitting stars to keep them rested for the playoffs (Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James are obvious examples) can be killers for both the oddsmakers, who set lines based on full participation; and for bettors, who cringe when they have put down cash but then see their team’s best player in street clothes. One thing is certain – the gambling industry will be demanding that teams announce well in advance if a player will be sitting. But even that might not be enough for punters to keep their sanity.NEWSOM INCHES UP A BITGavin Newsom’s increased national profile is starting to show up on the PredictIt betting market. Newsom is now getting action at 18 cents on the stock market-style website, which seems low but is a bit higher than Ron DeSantis’s 14 cents. The California governor is not a declared candidate but would vault toward the top of the Democratic list if President Joe Biden elects to not run in 2024.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and NFL Previews and Odds - 09/25/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 25, 2023

The Monday sports card features NFL and MLB action.Week 3 in the NFL concludes with two games. The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers on ABC-TV at 7:15 PM ET. The Eagles have won their first two games of the season after their 34-28 victory as a 6-point favorite back on September 14th. The Buccaneers are unbeaten in their first two games of the season after their 27-17 victory against Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia is a 5-point road favorite with the total set at 45 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cincinnati Bengals host the Los Angeles Rams on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET. The Bengals are winless in their first two games of the season after their 27-24 upset loss to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. The Rams are now 1-1 after their 30-23 loss to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. Major League Baseball has four games on its schedule. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to New York against the Yankees at 1:05 PM ET. The Diamondbacks have won six of their last seven games after their 7-1 victory against the Yankees yesterday. The Yankees had won two games in a row before their loss on Sunday. Merrill Kelly takes the ball for Arizona to pitch against Clarke Schmidt for New York. The Diamondbacks are a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Texan Rangers play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Rangers are on a five-game winning streak after their 9-8 victory against Seattle on Sunday. The Angels lost their third game in their last four games in a 9-3 loss at Minnesota on Sunday. Jon Gray takes the ball for the Rangers to pitch against Patrick Sandoval for the Angels. Texas is a -185 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the Houston Astros at 9:40 PM ET. The Mariners are on a three-game losing streak after their 9-8 loss at Texas yesterday. The Astros have lost five of their last six games after a 6-5 loss to Kansas City on Sunday. The Mariners tap Luis Castillo to face the Astros’ Justin Verlander. Seattle is a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Diego Padres visit San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 PM ET. The Padres won for the ninth time in their last ten games with a 12-2 victory against St. Louis on Sunday. The Giants lost for the fifth time in their last six games on Sunday after a 3-2 loss on the road in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. Blake Snell takes the ball for the Padres to go against Logan Webb for the Giants. San Diego is a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.

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