Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Articles

The Times They Are a Changin': Playing NBA Game 7 Overs

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Saturday’s final showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder was yet another demonstration that the days of deferring to playing the under in a Game 7 of an NBA playoff series are over. The conventional wisdom is that Game 7s are lower-scoring games. The stakes are higher, so the pressure is at its highest. After six straight games against each other, the defensive adjustments are considered to have the upper hand at that point. Inevitably, the oddsmakers adjust, and eventually the betting public is too slow to respond that the number has dropped too low. In this series, the oddsmakers installed the over/under for Game 6 at 218.5. The Game 7 under “tax” is six points with the oddsmakers installing the over/under for this game at 212.5 (although the number dropped to 211.5 in several spots). There will be plenty of bettors willing to pay that tax and take the under. This Game 7 under tax has been in place for many years, with sharp bettors aware of the strong under trends in these Game 7s. Yet bettors and handicappers relying on databases that go back to the early 2000s may be relying on garbage data for the modern NBA. The name on the jersey may still say “Spurs”, yet there are not many other similarities between the 2005 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs and the 2026 Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs (and there is even a bigger difference between the 2026 Oklahoma City Thunder and the defensive-minded 2005 Detroit Pistons, who the Spurs played in the NBA Finals that season.  Six of the previous ten Game 7s in the NBA playoffs have finished over the number heading into Saturday night. In the previous thirty-five games in the Conference finals, when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 209 to 216, the game finished over the total 25 times. The NBA in the 2025-26 season is not only different than in the 2004-2005 season, but it is significantly different than the 2024-25 NBA. The biggest difference in the modern game now than two decades ago is the prevalence of the 3-point shot. Yet the biggest difference between the NBA this year and last season is that more and more teams are relying on playing fast. Even long-tenured and successful head coaches like Erik Spoelstra abandoned past practices this year to embrace playing up-tempo and privileging taking quick shots over slow-developing pick-and-roll-based offensive schemes. There are several advantages to playing fast. It creates the opportunity to find high-quality shots before the opponent’s defense is set. It also challenges the stamina and endurance of your opponent. How many times did Reggie Miller, on the national broadcast during Game 7, implore Oklahoma City to move faster early in the shot clock?    The Spurs are playing at the second-highest pace of all sixteen teams in the playoffs. Game 7s in the NBA playoffs are less likely to become the stereotypical slow and plodding game if one of the teams is getting up the court quickly. Obviously, the pace of play gets quicker. These are offensive schemes that are more likely to shoot earlier in the shot clock. Playing faster also creates more opportunities for mistakes, turnovers, and quick scoring opportunities for the opponent. More 3-point shooting also puts pressure on the over. If Game 7 nerves are going to impact shooting, a 35% field goal percentage from behind the 3-point line coming from ten more shots from 3-point land is going to result in ten more points. The penalty from a subpar shooting effort is not as stiff if more of those shots are rewarded by adding three points to the score.Oklahoma City only shot 37.2% from the field in Game 6 when scoring just 91 points. Yet the silver lining for head coach Mark Daigneault was that the game getting out of hand in the second half allowed him to rest his starters for this game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only played 28 minutes on Thursday. He scored just 15 points on 6 of 18 shooting, yet the reigning two-time NBA Most Valuable Player award winner would probably play better in Game 7. Jalen Williams returned from injury in Game 6, yet was ineffective in his ten minutes. He was out for Game 7. Clarity on his status tonight may help Daigneault establish a better offensive game plan. The Thunder had played seven of their previous ten games over the total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their current opponent. They had played seven of their previous ten games over the number after losing their previous game. Oklahoma City had played seven of its previous ten games in the conference finals over the total. They have played sixteen of their previous twenty-four games over the number when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 210 to 219.5. The Thunder had played twenty-three of their previous thirty-five games over the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio got another great game from Victor Wembanyama, who scored 28 points in Game 6. Dylan Harper added 18 points off the bench. The Spurs had played nine of their previous fourteen games over the number when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 210 to 219.5. They had played seven of their eight games on the road in the postseason over the total. In their five playoff games this year, when the series was tied, all five of those games finished over the number. San Antonio had played nine of their previous twelve games over the total when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog, getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Four of the six games in this series had had 231 or more combined points scored. The two exceptions (that also finished under the total) were when the Thunder were playing in San Antonio, and they only shot 33.0% and 37.2% from the field. At home, Oklahoma City had shot at least 40.6% from the field in this series, and they made 48.2% and 47.9% of their shots in their last two games at home in this series despite being without Jalen Williams for seven of those eight quarters. Nerves were not on display early in this Game 7. San Antonio raced out to score 32 points in the opening quarter despite playing on the road. They ended the quarter with a seven-point lead with 57 combined points, presenting a great start to the game finishing over the total. At halftime, the Spurs had a 56-53 lead. If Game 7 nerves ever influenced this game, it was in the third quarter when both teams only scored 24 points apiece. Yet San Antonio scored 31 points in the fourth quarter. With the Spurs leading 109-103 with 52 seconds left, it looked like everyone’s over tickets were safe. Yet many bettors holding 212.5 tickets got anxious when the Thunder could not score, yet kept getting offensive rebounds rather than San Antonio getting the ball and quickly getting fouled. Fortunately, when the Spurs finally pulled down a defensive rebound, they opted for a celebratory fast break slam dunk to end the game with a 111-103 victory. Some may say that it was a lucky victory, as if only two points scored in the final 52 seconds in a game with a six-point margin was not the more significant aberration. We think the result demonstrates that the six-point tax oddsmakers installed on their Game 7 over/under number was too much. Both teams shot 45% from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander did raise his level of play in Game 7 and scored 35 points. The Thunder only made 34% of their 3-point shots, yet by taking 35 shots from 3-point range, they added 36 points to their score from those shots. San Antonio made 42% of their 40 shots from 3-point land, which added 51 points to their score.  Seven of the previous eleven Game 7s in the NBA playoffs have now finished over the total. That is too small of a sample size to begin expecting overs to cash tickets moving forward. Yet it is enough to suggest the oddsmakers' Game 7 under tax has gone too far. It is enough to suggest that historical trends that rely on results from a quarter of a century ago are outdated. Perhaps 2026 team trend data for the two opponents should be given more weight than 2005 league-wide data? The NBA Finals feature two teams, the Spurs and the New York Knicks, that have played 19 of their 32 combined games in the postseason over the number. That is not enough evidence to take the over in Game 1, yet it should be enough evidence for bettors to reconsider their under bets before walking to the teller.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Good luck - TDG.

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 05/31/26

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 31, 2026

The Sunday sports card features MLB and WNBA action.Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled. The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays on Peacock at 12:15 p.m. ET. The Orioles send out Kyle Bradish to pitch against the Blue Jays’ Spencer Miles. Baltimore is a -137 money-line favorite with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings). Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh plays at home against Minnesota, with Braxton Ashcraft getting the ball for the Pirates to face Zebby Matthews for the Twins. The Pirates are a -163 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. San Diego travels to Washington with the Padres tapping Griffin Canning to take the mound to challenge the Nationals’ Zack Littell. The Padres are a -136 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Four MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. Boston plays on the road in Cleveland with Ranger Suarez taking the hill for the Red Sox to battle Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. The Red Sox are a -114 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. New York is at home to play Miami, with the Mets turning to Nolan McLean to grab the ball to face the Marlins’ Jansen Junk. The Mets are a -163 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Tampa Bay hosts Los Angeles with Shane McClanahan getting tapped to pitch for the Rays against Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels. The Rays are a -199 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Atlanta is on the road in Cincinnati with the Braves sending out Spencer Strider to take on the Reds’ Nick Lodolo. The Braves are a -136 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.Two MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. Milwaukee visits Houston with Jacob Misiorowski taking the mound for the Brewers to face Tatsuyama Imai for the Astros. The Brewers are a -185 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Chicago plays at home against Detroit with the White Sox turning to Sean Burke to duel against the Tigers’ Keider Montero. The White Sox are a -131 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Texas Rangers are at home to play the Kansas City Royals at 2:35 p.m. ET. Jack Leiter gets the starting assignment for the Rangers to challenge Michael Wacha for the Royals. Texas is a -117 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET. The Giants tap Robbie Ray to take the mound to battle the Rockies’ Tanner Gordon. San Francisco is a -131 money-line road favorite with a total of 11. The New York Yankees are on the road to play the Athletics at 4:05 p.m. ET. Will Warren gets the ball for the Yankees to face a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Athletics. New York is a -156 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10.Two MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is at home against Philadelphia, with the Dodgers turning to Yoshinobu Yamamoto to take on Andrew Painter for the Phillies. The Dodgers are a -220 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Seattle hosts Arizona on Peacock with Bryce Miller taking the mound for the Mariners to battle Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. The Mariners are a -156 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Sunday Night Baseball on NBC/Peacock features the Chicago Cubs traveling to St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Cubs send out Jordan Wicks to pitch against the Cardinals’ Matthew Liberatore. Chicago is a -114 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The WNBA has one game on tap. The Las Vegas Aces play in Golden State against the Valkyries on NBC/Peacock at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 169.5.

Read more

When Patience is Rewarded by Waiting for Race Day Odds Movement: Anatomy of Handicapping the Preakness Stakes

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, May 30, 2026

In the ever-evolving approach taken by horse owners and trainers when it comes to how to handle the three Triple Crown races for three-year-olds, it may have been the most underwhelming field for the Preakness Stakes I have ever handicapped. The two-week turnaround from the Kentucky Derby is simply considered too grueling. Unless the Kentucky Derby winner has a legitimate chance to win the Triple Crown, owners and trainers feel compelled to skip the Preakness Stakes and prepare for the Belmont Stakes. Only three horses that exited the Kentucky Derby were competing in this race — so I was comfortable to dismiss the trend that 17 of the last 25 Preakness Stakes winners competed at the Kentucky Derby. Those trends are reflective of a bygone era. Frankly, I was not putting much weight into the Kentucky Derby results at all — it was a weird race that I suspect will be considered an outlier with the benefit of hindsight. The middle of the field got clogged — that really hurt my Best Bet, Chief Wallabee, who closed late but did not have enough to finish in fourth place. There was a significant meltdown in pace late in that race — and that is what helped Ocelli finish in third place, and Incredibolt find a sixth-place result. I don’t take much from either effort after being skeptical about both horses going into the Derby (as well as Robusta that finished 14th at the Kentucky Derby). Of note was that the Preakness Stakes is taking place at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland, this year, given that major renovations were taking place at the Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The race was still 1 3/16 miles. All 14 horses in what is a very large field for the Preakness Stakes have question marks. If there was ever a triple crown race where patience is needed to reassess the odds after the Saturday morning and afternoon betting action impacts the odds, it was the 151st Preakness Stakes. I could make the case for about a half dozen of these horses. After assessing the odds at 5:30 PM ET, it was #9 Iron Honor that stood out. This was the morning line favorite all week at 9-2. I was considering this horse at those odds, but did not love it. But now that Iron Honor had fallen to 9-1, I considered those odds presenting a very nice overlay value (which is the name of the game). Certainly, there were red flags — but I thought the market had overreacted. The 1 3/16 mile distance was a question — but this horse was bred for distance. Iron Honor was sired by Nyquist, who won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Juvenile Cup. Iron Honor's last race was a disappointing seventh place at the Wood Memorial, where he posted a subpar Beyer figure of 76. But Iron Honor drew the outside post and encountered early trouble. The eye test watching this race rates it better than how it looked on paper. At 9-1 odds rather than 9-2 odds, I worry less about that effort. The positive aspects of this horse were that he won the Grade 3 Gotham with a Beyer figure of 90. In his previous race, his Beyer figure was 95. Not only does that 95 Beyer figure match him with Napoleon Solo for the highest mark in the field, but he was the only horse to post two Beyer figures in the 90s. And then there are his connections. His trainer is Chad Brown, who had previously won two Preakness Stakes by using the formula to bypass the Kentucky Derby to prepare for this race. The jockey was the proven veteran Flavien Prat. Brown was taking off the blinkers for this race, as it may have played a role in the bad early start at the Wood Memorial. The blinkers off could help Iron Honor stalk and close in a race that is expected to be very fast early on. I endorsed and made across-the-board Win, Place, Show bets with #9 Iron Honor. #1 Taj Mahal was the top favorite at 5-1 odds at 5:30 PM ET. I was kind of intrigued, given this horse winning all three races in his career, with all of them taking place at Laurel Park. His last race was the Federico Tesio — but winners of those races had then failed to win the Preakness Stakes 15 times in a row, with the best finish being a third place all the way back in 2000. The circumstances were different since those previous Preakness Stakes races were at Pimlico, but a trend like that probably also speaks to the quality of the competition that usually takes part at the Tesio. At 5-1, I trusted the historical numbers and threw out a horse that is on the rail and unproven at this step up in class.#5 Talkin intrigued me as a 20-1 longshot. But Talkin moved to 9-1, despite his highest Beyer figures being 87 and 85. I looked at #6 Chip Honcho, who had fallen from 5-1 to 10-1 odds as of 5:30 PM ET — but trainer Steve Asmussen had just two second-place finishes in the last 13 Preakness Stakes, so I dismissed this horse that had Beyer figures of 73-92-78 in his last three races.  For my boxed trifecta bet, I added #7 The Hell We Did and #10 Napoleon Solo to my Best Bet #9 Iron Honor. I put some trust in trainer Todd Fletcher and jockey Luis Saez for The Hell We Did. His best Beyer figure was 92. Bred for distance by Authentic. At his morning line 15-1 odds, I might have overlooked his light on seasoning experience in races like this. With his odds now at 9-1, I simply prefer Iron Honor. I used similar logic for Napoleon Solo. At 8-1, I worried about the distance and how he would handle the pace. But Napoleon Solo was the only Grade One winner in the field with his victory at Champagne seven months ago, where he posted that Beyer of 95. That lone Grade One winner in the field intangible proved telling as Napoleon Solo won the race, closing at 7-1 odds. But Iron Honor finished in second place, trailing by 1 1/4 lengths. With closing odds of 8-1, Iron Horse paid nicely for Place and Show Bets for a tidy profit when subtracting the Win bet that just missed. We missed the boxed trifecta as The Hell We Did finished in seventh place (hindsight is 20/20 about a boxed exacta bet with Napoleon Solo and Iron Horse).Dismissing #1 Taj Mahal proved prescient as that horse was outclassed and finished in tenth place. #5 Talkin’ finished last — so the odds movement on Saturday was irrational. #6 Chip Honcho did finish in third place — but trainer Steve Asmussen still has just two second-place finishes in the last 14 Preakness Stakes.On to the Belmont Stakes!Best of luck — Frank.

Read more

Anatomy of a 12.75-1 Winner: Handicapping Cameron Young at the PGA Cadillac Championship

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, May 30, 2026

For its first event this month, from April 30th through May 2nd, the PGA Tour returned to Trump National Doral at the Blue Monster Course in Miami, Florida, after a nine-year hiatus for the PGA Cadillac Championship. This Par 72 event was the second-longest on the PGA Tour at 7739 yards. The Bermudagrass rough rises up to three inches. The pros would contend with 110 bunkers and water that impacts ten holes. The greens consisted of TifEagle Bermuda grass that will measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter, with the average putting surface of the greens being 7200 square feet. This was the fifth signature event on the PGA Tour this season, with a heightened purse and no cuts for the 72 professionals competing this week.Our Best Bet to win the PGA Cadillac Championship was on Cameron Young, who is listed at +1250 odds to win this event at DraftKings. It has been a breakout season for the 28-year-old. After finishing in a tie for third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he won THE PLAYERS Championship last month and then followed that up by finishing in third place at the Masters (leading on Sunday at one point). His most recent PGA event was at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, where he settled for a tie for 25th place. Young was playing at an elite level and has gained +1.63 shots per round versus the field. In his last five events, which have either been a major championship or a signature event with a stacked field, he has gained more than 45 strokes versus the field. Young was a great fit for this course because he is one of the longest drivers on the tour. He ranked sixth on the PGA Tour in 2026 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and tenth in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. He also ranked second on the tour in Total Driving and second in Proximity to the Hole. He also has an excellent short game. He ranked 12th on the tour in Scrambling with a success rate of over 67%. He loves playing on Bermuda greens as well, where he ranked third on the tour since the start of 2025 by averaging +1.22 strokes-gained per round versus the field. Where Young’s game has most improved is with his irons, as he ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Young ranked fifth on the tour in Bogey Avoidance, which suggests he should play well on more difficult courses. Young cruised to an easy victory that week. He opened Round One by shooting 8-under par. He then shot 5-under par on Friday for Round Two, taking him into the weekend with a 13-under par score. He was steady on Saturday with a 2-under par score. Then, for Round Four on Sunday, he did not open the door for any potential chasing opponent as he shot 4-under par. His 19-under-par winning score was six strokes better than Scottie Scheffler, who finished in second place with a 13-under-par score. It was Young’s third PGA Tour victory in his career — and it was our third PGA Tour first-place winner in 2026.We also won our prop bet on Young, who was linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. Scheffler had just missed in two straight events as he followed up his second place at the Masters with a second place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. But he had only won once on the tour in 2026 and was still getting priced as if he was Tiger Woods at his prime. It is a credit to his immense talent that he is still eking out good results despite being way out of form with his irons. He led the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year — but he had plummeted to 65th on the tour in that metric this year. Furthermore, he had not played this course as a professional — and opening rounds are when he is at his least lethal, as he ranked just 72nd on the tour in Round One Scoring in 2026. He then improves to 14th in Round Two Scoring before leading the PGA Tour this season in Round Three and Round Four Scoring — so getting his bearings on a golf course makes a significant difference for him. Scheffler shot only 1-under par on Thursday in his first professional round at the Blue Monster Course, seven strokes behind Scheffler. Predictably for Scheffler, he shot at least 3-under par in each of his next three rounds (but we still won our Round One head-to-head prop). Best of luck — Frank.

Read more

Argentina Liga Profesional Futures (2026 Clausura)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Saturday, May 30, 2026

The Apertura has ended for the Argentina Liga Profesional de Futbol with Belgrano being crowned champions in the Final. Belgrano beat River Plate in the Final 3-2 and now the Clausura will be a lot more intense with the biggest clubs in Argentina all fighting for that Copa Libertadores spot. The league will be taking a break for the World Cup with the Clausura set to start toward the end of July, but this is a great time to find value in the league with no heavy favorite at the moment.  Clausura Final Winner River Plate +650: River Plate is coming into the Clausura as the team with the best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. River Plate had a very rough start to the Apertura, but they turned things around in the middle of the season and ended up being one of the better teams as usual. They finished their group in 2nd place with 29 points from a 9-2-5 record and they had a +10 goal differential as well, scoring 22 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 12 goals. They went on a run to the Final in the playoffs as well, but they came up short with a 3-2 loss to Belgrano who shocked the league. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina though and they are one of the more accomplished clubs as well. They have not been dominating the league in recent years though, so they are only going to be more motivated to win after coming so close in the Apertura. They improved a lot as a team throughout the season and they have the money to spend to improve this team even more for the Clausura. River Plate is a team that is desperate for a trophy and they are going to be highly focused on winning the Clausura. This is great value for one of the better teams in the league who is going to be motivated to win the league and their odds are only going to go down as the start of the Clausura gets closer. River Plate at +650 has some very good value to win the Clausura Final this year.  Boca Juniors +700: Boca Juniors is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Boca Juniors had a very good start to the season and they finished high in their group, but they started to fizzle out toward the end of the season and were a disappointment in the playoffs. They finished in 2nd place of their group with 30 points from an 8-6-2 record and they had a +13 GD, scoring 22 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 9 goals. They had one of the better defenses in the league all year, but that defense was not playing well at the end of the season and they ended up getting knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by Huracan after a 3-2 loss at home in extra time. They even fizzled out in their Copa Libertadores group after a strong start and ended up finishing in 3rd place, getting dropped down to Copa Sudamericana play-off matches. Boca is a very big club in Argentina as well and they are going to retool in the transfer window, but this team has had a problem with finishing over the last few years and their attack has struggled when they needed it most. Boca Juniors may dominate their group once again in the Clausura, but they do not have what it takes to win the Clausura as they will find a way to choke in the big matches. Boca Juniors at +700 is not the best option here. Racing Club +800: Racing Club is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Racing Club has been a very inconsistent team in the league this season and they barely even made the playoffs in the Apertura. They finished their group in 8th place with 21 points from a 5-6-5 record and they had a +2 GD, scoring 17 goals in their 16 matches and allowing 15 goals in those. They actually finished tied for points with the 9th place team and only made the playoffs due to a slightly better GD by 2 goals, but they were lucky to even make it and needed the points in their final match of the regular season. They ended up pulling off an upset away from home in the 1st round with a 1-0 win over Estudiantes, but they ended up losing 2-1 in the next round to a much better Rosario Central side. Racing Club also struggled in their Copa Sudamericana group against weaker opponents this year and they ended up getting kicked out with a 3rd place finish in the group. Racing Club always finds a way to make themselves relevant in these competitions, but this is not the same team that dominated the league just 2 years ago and they have fallen off quite a bit since then. They certainly have not been a dominant team in the league this season either and they do not have the quality to make a run and win the Clausura Final this year. Racing Club at +800 does not have a lot of value to win the Clausura. Rosario Central +850: Rosario Central is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Rosario Central was very good in the league this season and they have been a solid team in all competitions as well. They finished in 4th place of their group with 28 points from an 8-4-4 record and they had a +4 GD with 20 goals scored in their 16 matches and 16 goals allowed. They have been one of the better teams in the league all season and even though they averaged 1 goal allowed per match, their defense is much better than the way they played in the regular season. They did very well in the playoffs as well, winning the first 2 rounds at home with a 3-1 win against Independiente and a 2-1 win against Racing Club, but they ended up losing 1-0 away from home against a very good River Plate side in their last match before the Final. They had the quality to win the Apertura though and they have been very good in South America as well. They finished in 2nd place of their Copa Libertadores group, advancing to the knockouts, and they actually finished with the same record and points as the group leader as well as having a better GD, but they were beat out on H2H. Rosario Central is once again going to be a force in the Clausura and their defense has the ability to perform much better than they did in the Apertura. Rosario Central is not the best team in the league, but they are one of the better teams by far and they have what it takes to make a run in this competition. There is some good value in Rosario Central at +850 to win the Clausura.  Estudiantes +900: Estudiantes is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Estudiantes had a very good season in the Apertura and they have been a team in recent years that finds ways to make themselves relevant in these competitions. They finished at the top of their group in the Apertura with 31 points from a 9-4-3 record and they had a +12 GD, scoring 19 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 7 goals in those. They had the best defense in the league during the Apertura, but that defense let them down when they got to the playoffs. They ended up fizzling out in the 1st round with a 1-0 loss at home to Racing Club who barely squeaked their way into the playoffs. They were good in Copa Libertadores as well, finishing in 2nd place and advancing to the knockouts, but they were not that dominant in their group. They are also going to have to worry about their Copa Libertadores matches when the Clausura starts and that is going to take away their focus from this competition. Estudiantes certainly has the quality to dominate the league again and make a run in the Clausura, but they have also struggled against some of the stronger opponents in the league this year and that is going to be what takes them down in the playoffs. There is some value in Estudiantes at +900 as a team that has won it in recent years, but there are better options to go with as well.  Independiente +1500: Independiente is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Independiente has been a solid team in the league this season, but they are not a team that is going to dominate the regular season. They finished the Apertura in 5th place of their group with 24 points from a 6-6-4 record and they had a +4 GD, scoring 24 goals in their 16 matches and allowing 20 goals. They had one of the better attacks in the league in the Apertura, but their defense was awful with the number of goals they conceded and that ended up being their biggest problem in the playoffs. They were in good form to end the regular season, but they fizzled out in the 1st round of the playoffs with a 3-1 loss to Rosario Central. They were able to keep themselves in that match for most of it, but Rosario Central broke through that bad defense late and as good as their attack has been this year, Independiente still struggled to find the net against stronger defenses. Independiente is a very tricky team to beat with their style of play so that could work in their favor here, but they are not a team that is going to dominate the regular season on a match to match basis and that will give them problems as they will likely have to play more higher seeds in the playoffs and they certainly do not have the quality to beat the top teams repeatedly. Independiente could make a run, but they are not consistent enough to go all the way and win the Clausura, so there is no real value here.  Clausura Zone Winners Zone A Winner: Estudiantes at +333 has the best value for a team to win Zone A in the Clausura. Estudiantes already won their group in the Apertura and they have been one of the more dominant teams in the league over the last few years. They stumbled in the 1st round of the playoffs and might not be able to go all the way, but they have been a dominant regular season team and they are once again going to be a threat in this Clausura. They have the quality to win their group again with the best defense in the league that did not concede many goals in the Apertura. They are also in a group that has some of the weaker teams in the league, so they are one of the best teams coming into the new season and will continue to be tough to beat. Estudiantes at +333 has some good value to win Zone A. Zone B Winner: River Plate at +250 has the best value for a team to win Zone B in the Clausura. River Plate did not win their group in the Apertura as they did not have a great start to the season, but they recovered very well and they are not going to allow that to happen again when they come back from the break. River Plate will be fresh and possibly more improved to start the Clausura. They are already one of the better teams in the league and even with their poor start in the Apertura, they still finished the group in 2nd place. Independiente Rivadavia finished in 1st place with a 5 point lead as they dominated the whole league, but even they fizzled out in the Apertura playoffs and they are due for some regression in the Clausura as that season was a bit of an anomaly for them. River Plate is one of the bigger clubs in Argentina as well, but they have not won a trophy in years, so they are going to be highly motivated to change that and will play every match with a purpose when the Clausura starts. River Plate came very close to winning their group as well as the playoffs in the Apertura, but they are due for a big season and this Clausura will be where they flex their strength over everyone else in the league. River Plate at +250 has some very good value to win Zone B.  RecommendationAnything can happen in the playoffs as was seen in the Apertura with Belgrano making a run and winning the Final, but the big clubs are going to come with a vengeance in the Clausura to earn one of those coveted Copa Libertadores spots. River Plate came very close to winning it all in the Apertura and finally breaking through in the league after years of disappointment, but that heartbreak in the Final is only going to motivate them more here. River Plate is by far the best team in the league and will only improve by the start of the Clausura, so they truly have the best chance at winning it all this season. River Plate at +650 is a great option to win the Clausura Final this season, but Rosario Central at +850 is not a bad 2nd option as a backup. River Plate at +650 and Rosario Central at +850 are the 2 best options to go with for a team to win the Clausura Final. 

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, UCL and WNBA Previews and Odds - 05/30/26

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 30, 2026

The Saturday sports card features NBA, MLB, WNBA, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with Game 7 in the Western Conference finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs on NBC/Peacock at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Spurs forced this climactic game after a 118-91 victory at home as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Thunder are a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings).Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled. The Detroit Tigers travel to Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -136 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -144 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play in Washington against the Nationals as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are on the road in Baltimore to face the Orioles as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Texas Rangers are at home to take on the Kansas City Royals on FS1 as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Four MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians host the Boston Red Sox as a -131 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road in Houston to battle the Astros as a -114 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets play at home against the Miami Marlins as a -136 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home to challenge the Los Angeles Angels as a -156 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two MLB games are featured on Fox’s regional television coverage at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves visit Cincinnati to battle the Reds as a -136 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Chicago Cubs play in St. Louis against the Cardinals as a -136 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants are on the road in Colorado to play the Rockies at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -131 money-line favorite with a total of 11. The New York Yankees travel on the road to take on the Athletics on Peacock at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two games conclude the MLB card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies as a -131 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks as a -163 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The WNBA has three games on tap. The Toronto Tempo is home to face the Seattle Storm at 1:00 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 169.5. The Los Angeles Sparks play in Connecticut against the Sun at 6:00 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 168.5. The Indiana Fever are on the road to challenge the Portland Fire on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 175.5. The championship match of the UEFA Champions League takes place on CBS at 3 p.m. ET at Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary. Paris Saint-Germain battles Arsenal as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. 

Read more

What Happened In Baseball in May

by AAA Sports

Friday, May 29, 2026

Cy Young and MVP Odds --  MVP Odds Aaron Judge. (-130)Bobby Witt Jr. (+310)Yordan Alvarez. (+500)Shohei Ohtani (-600)Kyle Schwarber (+1300)Elly De La Cruz (+2500)Cy Young OddsCam Schlittler (+110)Dylan Cease (+550)Jacob DeGrom (+550)Cristopher Sanchez (+145)Jacob Misiorowski (+340)Paul Skenes (+450) Losers So Far This Season --  The New York Mets (23-33) have had a ton of trouble this season getting anything clicking. From a roster standpoint, this is a clubhouse that should be in contention to win this division and compete for a chance to bring home the Commissioner's Trophy. But, things haven't gone to plan whatsoever. Will there be some change? We think so. But, if things keep going the way they have been, this could be another disappointing year for fans from Queens. In the American League, the Detroit Tigers (22-35) have been even worse than the Mets. At the time of Tarik Skubal's (2025 Cy Young Winner) injury, the Tigers were tied for the lead in the AL Central at 18-17. Since then, they've gone 4-18 en route to the worst record in the AL. Just like NYM, Detroit has players that you'd expect to produce much more than they have been. But, the Tigers just aren't getting results. Many people believe that this team is going to be a 'Seller' as we get closer to the Trade Deadline.  On The Rise -- Currently holding a winning record this season, the Washington Nationals (29-28) have surprised everyone with their ability to score. In fact, they lead the league in runs a game at the moment and that's led to their early-season success. The pitching hasn't been incredible. But, the name of the game is scoring runs and the Nationals have sure been able to do that so far this year. CJ Abrams is having himself a season with 12 HR's and 47 RBI's in 56 games so far. Who would've thought that the Chicago White Sox (29-27) would be in a contending position just over 50 games played in the season. The 'Southsiders' came up with an absolute bargain when they signed Japanese phenom Munetaka Murakami to a 2-year 34 million dollar contract this season. No, he's not going to hit .300 for you. But, what he does have is power. Currently tied for the most HR's by anyone in the American League with Yordan Alvarez, he's hit 20 bombs so far this season. The pitching is much improved as well. Quite shocking from a 60 win team from last year. World Series Contenders --  Los Angeles Dodgers (36-20) -- The clear favorite to win at +200 right now. That's a pretty good price to be taking considering that the Dodgers won last year and keep getting better as a team. New York Yankees (34-22) -- Always near the top of the contenders list ~ hasn't found a way to get it done lately. The Yankees have elite pitching this season that could carry them to the promise land. Atlanta Braves (38-19) -- Currently has the best record in the MLB with some really good hitters. The 2021 World Series champs are hungry for more success this time around. 

Read more

2026 FIFA World Cup: Burns' Top 5 Contenders.

by William Burns

Friday, May 29, 2026

The biggest sporting event across the globe is about to take place in a couple of weeks time & I'm getting as excited as anyone. The FIFA World Cup, which happens every four years, brought an estimated five billion fans in the 2022 last version. Now, things are getting even bigger as the World Cup expands from 32 teams to 48 teams! That change should see even more support from around the world. Here are my top five contenders to win the whole thing in this year's edition (NOT IN ORDER):  Argentina . The Defending Champs . (+900)  In 2022, the final between Argentina & France was one of the greatest "football" matches that I've ever witnessed with my own two eyes. If you haven't watched that game, make sure to do so before this year's competition. It will absolutely make you fall in love with the game. That being said, Argentina is the defending champs and look to go Back 2 Back. With the "GOAT" (in my eyes) Lionel Messi back on the pitch one last time, there's no question that Argentina is in the conversation to make it a second straight World Cup title. He's been tearing it up in the MLS over the past couple of years now & most definitely is looking to cap off his ridiculous career with a bang. Looking at the team around him, he's got many of the same pieces that he won the 2022 World Cup with alongside him. No, there's no Angel Di Maria this time around. But, with new youngsters in the roster like Nico Paz, there's no question that this team is going to be as strong as anyone, especially if goalkeeper, Emiliano Martinez can have an encore performance this time around.  France . The Revenge Tour . (+500) Obviously, it was heartbreak in 2022 for France, losing in that penalty shootout after coming back from down a pair of goals so late in the contest as well as another goal in ET. But, the 2018 champions are going to be very excited for this year's edition. France brings back a very similar roster just like Argentina with a couple of new faces. N'Golo Kante returns after missing out on 2022 due to injury. Bradley Barcola & Desire Doue provide even more flash for this brilliant attack. & Michael Olise arrives in style as one of the top players in the game at the moment. Don't get me wrong, not having Antoine Griezmann is definitely a sad sight. But, nobody lasts forever in the sport & he's definitely going to be watching closely hoping that his team can bring back the trophy back to France. I think that it's most definitely possible assuming Kylian Mbappe is at his best.  Spain . The Golden Boy is Here . (+475) Possibly sitting out the first couple of group stage matches because of injury recovery, Lamine Yamal has taken the game of "football" by storm over the past couple of seasons now. From winning the Euro's in 2024 as a 16 year old & becoming the youngest player ever to score in a Semis of that tournament with a beautiful strike, I believe that this team is going to be special once again this time around. No, Spain hasn't won this tournament since the Iniesta & Xavi days back in 2010. But, with a midfield duo or Pedri & Rodri, whoever they put as the third one is going to be very happy to play alongside those two, who are some of the best in the game. I truly think that Spain is the slight favorite to win the World Cup in 2026 for a reason. But, time will tell as this is most definitely one of the hardest, if not the hardest trophy to win in the entire sporting world. Watch out for Nico Williams, who thrives with his country behind him.  Portugal . Ronaldo's Final Hurrah . (+1000) Just like Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo returns to the biggest stage in hopes to finish his career with a bang. No, he's not retiring just yet. But, there's no doubt in my mind that this is going to be the last World Cup that we see both of those players in. It's quite sad in all honesty. But, it's just the way that everything goes. Having said that, this is one of the best Portuguese teams ever assembled from the backline to the forward line. In fact, I think that Portugal brings in the best midfield trio of any team in this tournament. A pair of PSG DM's in Vitinha & Joao Neves, get to play with Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United. My goodness this is going to be a joy to watch. Can Ronaldo get the job done & match Messi with a World Cup a piece and put his name perhaps at the top of GOAT debate once again? Boy that would be special.  Germany . A Dozen Years Later . (+1400)  After winning in 2014, it feels like Germany have been waiting for its time to get back to the top of the world's stage. No, they are not the favorites by any means. But, this feels like an excellent competition that's coming at the perfect time for them. Germany is loaded with talent and has some massive names. Manuel Neuer, who won the World Cup with Germany in 2014 as well as the Golden Glove in that tournament is back for another year of magic. Many of you probably would've expected me to put Brazil or England as my last team in these rankings. But, given the injuries & roster selections, it's only fair for me to expect more out of Germany this time around than those teams. Germany might not have the superstars. But, it's got elite players at every position. They feel extremely underrated and are a team that not too many are talking about right now. Germany could definitely surprise some people. 

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 05/29/26

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 29, 2026

The Friday sports card features NHL, MLB, and WNBA action. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 5 in the Eastern Conference finals. The Carolina Hurricanes host the Montreal Canadiens on TNT/truTV/HBO Max at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Hurricanes took a 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven series after a 4-0 shutout victory at home on Wednesday. Carolina is a -238 money-line favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled. The Atlanta Braves travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -143 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Minnesota Twins on Apple TV+ at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -137 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play in Washington against the Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Toronto Blue Jays on Peacock at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians host the Boston Red Sox as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets play at home against the Miami Marlins as a -126 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home to face the Los Angeles Angels as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are on the road in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -143 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Detroit Tigers visit Chicago to challenge the White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers host the Kansas City Royals at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -126 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Houston against the Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants are on the road in Colorado to battle the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -171 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.5. The New York Yankees travel on the road to play the Athletics at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -149 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home to take on the Philadelphia Phillies on Apple TV+ at 10:15 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The WNBA has four games on tap. Three WNBA games tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Washington Mystics host the Los Angeles Sparks as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 168.5. The New York Liberty play at home against the Phoenix Mercury as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 168.5. The Minnesota Lynx play in Chicago against the Sky as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 170.5. The Atlanta Dream are on the road in Portland to face the Fire at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 164.5. 

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 05/28/26

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 28, 2026

The Thursday sports card features NBA, MLB, and WNBA action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with Game 6 in the Western Conference finals. The San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder on NBC/Peacock at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Thunder took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 127-114 victory at home against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. San Antonio is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 219.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Major League Baseball has six games scheduled. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Tigers send out Jack Flaherty to pitch against the Angels’ Grayson Rodriguez. Detroit is a -131 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago White Sox are home to play the Minnesota Twins at 2:10 p.m. ET. Erick Fedde gets the ball to pitch for the White Sox to take on Kendry Rojas for the Twins. Chicago is a -136 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves travel to Boston to face the Red Sox at 4:10 p.m.  ET. Payton Tolle takes the mound for the Red Sox to face Chris Sale for the Braves. Atlanta is a -143 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles turn to Chris Bassitt to battle the Blue Jays’ Patrick Corbin. Baltimore is a -136 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Chicago Cubs on Peacock at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Pirates had won three games in a row before their 10-4 loss at home against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago had lost ten games in a row before breaking that losing streak on Wednesday. Paul Skenes gets the ball for Pittsburgh to challenge Collin Rea for the Cubs. The Pirates are a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.The Texas Rangers are at home to play the Houston Astros at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Rangers tap Nathan Eovaldi to take on the Astros’ Spencer Arrighetti. Texas is a -157 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The WNBA has two games on tap on Amazon Prime Video. The Las Vegas Aces play in Dallas against the Wings at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Aces’ four-game winning streak ended in a 101-95 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Sparks as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Wings have won three of their last four games after their 91-76 victory in New York against the Liberty as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas is a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 177.5. The Golden State Valkyries host the Indiana Fever at 10:00 p.m. ET. The Valkyries won for the second time in their previous three games with a 92-73 victory against Connecticut as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. The Fever are on a three-game winning streak after beating Golden State by a 90-82 score as a 5.5-point favorite last Friday. The Valkryies are a -1.5 point-favorite with a total of 168.5. 

Read more

May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, May 28, 2026

With most MLB starters reaching 10 or more starts in the 2026 season, the data to work with is becoming more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in May with numbers that are not likely to hold up over time. These four National League starters may be worth avoiding or considering fading in upcoming starting efforts.   Braxton Ashcraft – Pittsburgh Pirates 2018 2nd Round draft pick Braxton Ashcraft has taken a bit more time to develop than some of his rotation mates in Pittsburgh but Ashcraft has fit right in with Paul Skenes and company posting a 2.75 ERA in 11 starts so far in 2026. Ashcraft made five terrific starts in a row to start the season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in each outing while pitching at least five innings. Since April 28, he is 3-1 in decisions, but his FIP is 3.72 and his strikeout rate has fallen. He has posted a nearly 85 percent strand rate in that span for some good fortune. Ashcraft has excellent road splits this season and he has enjoyed a few favorable venue road starts in early season action including one of his best starts coming in San Francisco.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Los Angeles Dodgers A World Series hero last season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is being regarded and valued as one of MLB’s best starters and with a loaded lineup behind him he will face premium pricing in every start. Yamamoto turned in a historically great postseason in 2025, getting three wins including a complete game in Game 2, plus closing out Game 7 out of the bullpen. He had a good regular season in 2025 and finished third in the NL Cy Young vote, but he isn’t pitching at that level so far in 2026. His K/9 has fallen from 10.4 to 8.3 while he has been more at risk for allowing home runs. Yamamoto has a 3.76 FIP this season, a perfectly acceptable and above average mark, but with the it may not sync with the pricing and expectations that Yamamoto demands next to his 3.09 ERA. Yamamoto is only 4-4 in decisions, and the Dodgers are just 6-4 in his 10 starts, yet his favorite pricing in his last start was past -400.  Spencer Strider – Atlanta Braves With a 3-0 record and a 3.46 ERA for the first place Braves, Spencer Strider will start to face the steeper valuation that he earned with great results in 2022 and 2023 for the Braves before requiring surgery in 2024. It is only a five start sample as Strider didn’t start his season until May 3, but his FIP of 5.35 against his 3.46 ERA represents a massive disparity. Strider can still generate great strikeout counts with an 11.1 K/9 so far this season but he has also allowed six home runs in 26 innings and his numbers so far are built a .180 BABIP that won’t be sustainable. Strider has also stranded nearly 93 percent of his baserunners and there have been a lot of baserunners with his 5.2 BB/9 so far this season. Strider draws some recognition from his 4th place finish in the 2023 NL Cy Young race but he has not proven consistently capable since that season despite the pricing he is sure to command in the upcoming weeks if the Braves continue to pace the National League.  Randy Vasquez – San Diego Padres Now with 57 starts for the Padres since 2024. Randy Vasquez has been a regular option in the rotation. Vasquez had a 5.2 K/9 last season but so far in 2026 his strikeout rate has climbed while his walk rate has fallen. Vasquez has an impressive 3.28 ERA in 11 starts and just over 60 innings of work but his FIP is 4.24 is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. Vasquez doesn’t get a great percentage of groundballs and his home run rate has been consistent in his career. The difference so far this season for Vasquez improving his results has been a strand rate at nearly 84 percent, which is significantly higher than he had the past two seasons for San Diego. Almost 60 percent of his innings have been in favorable conditions at Petco Park so far this season while he has faced a losing team in all four of his road starts so far this season. Vasquez had a nice start to the season but over his last six starts his FIP is 5.82, while his K/9 has fallen dramatically to just 4.8 since late April. Look for the rest of the 2026 season to push Vasquez to being the back-of-the-rotation below-average starter of the past two seasons. 

Read more

May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, May 28, 2026

  With most MLB starters reaching 10 or more starts in the 2026 season, the data to work with is becoming more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in May with numbers that are not likely to hold up over time. These four American League starters may be worth avoiding or considering fading in upcoming starting efforts.   Anthony Kay – Chicago White Sox The White Sox have been a pleasant surprise this season as a competitive team in the AL Central following three straight seasons with more than 100 losses. Anthony Kay has found success following two full seasons working as a regular starter in Japan. He has a 3.96 ERA on the season, but his FIP is 5.21 as the success for the left-hander could be short-lived. Since allowing eight runs in a late April start in Phoenix, Kay has a 2.87 ERA, but he has modest strikeout results and in his last six starts he has been able to strand nearly 82 percent of his baserunners. His FIP is still 4.38 in his last six starts and in that six-start run Kay has faced only one winning team, while clearing six innings just twice. Kay has significantly worse road splits this season and so far, he has pitched more home innings in his 2026 numbers. Credit Kay and the White Sox for a nice month of May, but Kay isn’t likely to provide above average results the rest of the way.  Joey Cantillo – Cleveland Guardians The Cleveland franchise has consistently developed young pitchers with success, but Joey Cantillo was drafted back in 2017 and he will turn 27 this year. He had success for the Guardians last season in a variety of roles in his first full MLB season and the results appear similar at first glance in 2026 for the left-hander. Cantillo had a 10.2 K/9 last season, but that rate is just 8.1 this season. He has also sported a concerning 4.8 BB/9 so far in 2026. His FIP of 4.50 towers over his 3.57 ERA in 12 starts and Cantillo has allowed four or more runs in four of his last eight starts despite mixing in two scoreless outings to post a strong month of May overall. Cantillo has cleared six innings just twice in his 12 starts and his FIP is 5.13 since May 1 with his K/9 crashing to 5.9 to mirror his 5.9 BB/9 in his last six starts. Cantillo is 3-1 in May decisions and the Guardians find ways to win in a lot of ways, but Cantillo should not be a play-on pitcher in the Cleveland rotation.  Stephen Kolek – Kansas City Royals The Royals have been a disappointment so far this season but in May Stephen Kolek emerged as a quality option on the mound going 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. Kolek made 19 starts last season with the Padres and then the Royals, pitching well in five late season outings for Kansas City after being traded. His nice conventional line hides just a 4.9 K/9 however and in his 26 innings he has benefitted from a .187 BABIP, an absurdly low figure that is sure to climb in a larger sample size. Kolek has a FIP of 4.18 which is close to where he finished last season with a much higher ERA. Kolek does have strong command and can continue to be a useful option for the Royals, but the 29-year-old isn’t likely to emerge as an All-Star caliber starter for the 2026 season like his current numbers might suggest.  Nick Martinez – Tampa Bay Rays Now 35, Nick Martinez continues to find employment at the MLB level despite a lack of strikeout potential. Martinez pitched well mostly as a reliever in 2022 and 2023 with a favorable home ballpark in San Diego following pitching a few years in Japan. He maintained capable numbers the past two seasons pitching for the Reds but this season he has delivered an incredible 1.51 ERA, entirely as a starter in his first season with the Rays. Tampa Bay posted an amazing month of May, but Martinez has a FIP nearly two runs higher than his ERA and he has a HR/9 that is nearly half of his career average. Martinez is on pace for his worst K/9 since 2017, but he has stranded nearly 93 percent of his baserunners for an incredible run of good fortune. Martinez has allowed just one home run in his last seven starts and in 10 starts this season he is yet to allow more than two runs in a start, despite still allowing nearly a hit per inning pitched. Martinez remains fool’s gold, even with the backing of the Rays organization that makes few mistakes, and he should be considered fade material moving forward as Tampa Bay won’t maintain the recent pace of success. 

Read more
« ‹ 1 2 4 5 389 › »

Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Links

Big Al's Sports Picks Info

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2026 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.