The EFL Cup is down to the final 8 teams with the Quarter-Finals set to start on Tuesday, December 16. Liverpool is the club with the most EFL Cups in their history with 10, but they are not in the competition anymore, leaving Manchester City as the club with the most EFL Cups still left in the competition. Newcastle is the defending champion of the tournament though, and they have made an appearance in the Finals twice in the last 3 years. There are plenty of quality teams left in this tournament though, so with the competition approaching the final stretch now, it is time to see who has the best chance at taking home the EFL Cup this season.
To Win Outright
Manchester City +225: Man City is coming into the Quarter-Finals of this competition as the team with the best chance at taking home the EFL Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. Man City has the 2nd most EFL Cups of any team in the competition's history, but with Liverpool out of the tournament, Man City is the active club with the most titles. Man City last won the competition in 2021 though and they have not even made it back to a Final since then. Man City struggled to start this new Premier League season as they made many key changes to their squad and are not the same team that has dominated the league for years, but recently they have been climbing up the table with a surge of good play. They are certainly one of the more talented teams left in the competition, but their focus may not fully be on this competition so there is not a lot of value in them as the favorite to win it all. They are about to enter a very tough stretch of the schedule where the matches are much more condensed and that is going to take a toll on this team as they have other competitions that are much bigger to worry about. They still only have the 1 Champions League Title despite their Premier League dominance over the years, and considering how poorly they did in that competition last season, Champions League will be the primary focus for this squad. They have also worked their way back into a position where they can win the Premier League Title as well so this is certainly a trophy that can slip through the cracks for them. Man City has the quality to go to the Final, but their focus will not fully be on this competition, and they have not performed well in the tournament over the last 4 years. There is no real value in Man City at this price.
Arsenal +225: Arsenal is coming into the Quarter-Finals of this competition as the team with the best chance at taking home the EFL Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. They have the same odds as Man City coming into the Quarter-Finals since they are currently sitting at the top of the table and have one of the better squads in the league. They have not had a very good history in this competition though. They have only won the EFL Cup twice in their history, last winning in 1993. Their last appearance in the Final was back in 2018 which they lost to Man Utd 3-0, and that is their only Final appearance in the last 14 years. Arsenal has been dominant in the league this season as they have one of the better squads with a lot of depth and are currently sitting atop the table, but they also have bigger fish to fry this season. They have been near the top of the Premier League table for a few years now, but they continue to come up short. Now they have one of their best chances to win the title this season so they are going to be razor focused on winning the Premier League Title. They also made a very deep run in Champions League last season so that is a competition they can certainly win and will be focused on that one more as well. Arsenal certainly has both the quality and the depth to win this tournament, but they have not performed well historically and will not be fully focused again with unfinished business in these other competitions. They also have a very tough path to the Final as they play Crystal Palace in the next round and if they can get by them, they would see the winner of Chelsea/Cardiff which will not be an easy out either. Arsenal has bigger competitions to worry about this season with a real chance in both of those, there is no real value in them at this price.
Chelsea +450: Chelsea is coming into the Quarter-Finals of this competition as the team with the next best chance at taking home the EFL Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. Chelsea is 4th on the list of all-time EFL Cup winners with 5 titles, but they have not won this competition since 2015. They have done very well in this competition in recent years though, making 2 Final appearances in the last 4 years as well as 3 Final appearances in the last 7 years. They also came very close in all 3 of those as 1 was a 1-0 loss while the other 2 were both lost in penalties after 0-0 draws. Chelsea was one of the better teams in the Premier League last season as they have been building a very good and young team over the last few years. They were not a threat to win the title last season, but they did go on to win the Conference League as well as the Club World Cup in the summer. They are currently sitting in 2nd place in the Premier League table and they are certainly a threat to win the title this season. They are also in Champions League so they have other more important competitions to worry about, but they still have one of the more talented squads in the league with a lot of depth, and they are very fortunate with their draw in this competition. They are playing Cardiff in the next round so that should be a match they get through easily. Then they would play the winner of Arsenal/Crystal Palace in the next round which is certainly a tougher matchup, but they do have the quality to compete with the best in the league. Chelsea has been knocking on the door of this competition over the last few years with much worse teams, but now they have a squad good enough to win it all and this is some good value for them considering their easier path. Chelsea has some value to win this competition at this price.
Newcastle United +550: Newcastle is coming into the Quarter-Finals of this competition as the team with the next best chance at taking home the EFL Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. Newcastle is the defending champion of the competition, beating Liverpool in the Final 2-1, and they have now made 2 Final appearances in the last 3 years. Winning this competition last year was actually their 1st ever EFL Cup in club history though. It is unlikely that they will go B2B though. They have had an awful start to the season as they are currently sitting in the bottom half of the table so they are going to need to step up their game in the league, and they still have Champions League matches to worry about on top of that. They also lost some quality that made their team so good last season, so they are in line to take a step back like the way they have started the season. They are up against Fulham in the next round which is a more manageable match for them, but they will have to see the winner of Man City/Brentford after that and either opponent would be a very tricky match for them. Newcastle is not going to repeat as the winner of this competition with the form they have been in and this is not a competition they should be focused on with their trouble in the Premier League this season. There is no real value in Newcastle at this price.
Crystal Palace +1200: Crystal Palace is coming into the Quarter-Finals of this competition as the team with the next best chance at taking home the EFL Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. Crystal Palace has had a very good start to the season as they are currently sitting in the top 4 of the Premier League and they have some quality in their squad, but they are also very inconsistent. They cannot be trusted in a competition like this as they get deeper into it, and they do not have a very good history in this tournament either. They have never won the EFL Cup in their club history and they have never even made a Final appearance either. They also have one of the toughest paths to win this competition as they are playing against Arsenal in the next round and if they were to get through that match, they would have to play the winner of Chelsea/Cardiff to get to the Final. It is very unlikely that they get through both matches and even if they do, they will have another very tough opponent waiting for them in the Final. Crystal Palace has a solid squad, but they are not good enough to win this competition, especially with the path they have in front of them. There is no real value in Crystal Palace at this price.
RecommendationThere are good teams on both sides of the bracket to close out this competition, but there is 1 clear option to win it all with all things considered. Chelsea at +450 is the best option as they certainly have the quality and depth in their squad to beat anyone left in this competition, and they have performed very well in this competition over the last few years. Chelsea also has an easier path to the Final and has been knocking on the door for years, this is their season to get it done. Chelsea at +450 to take home the EFL Cup this year.
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