Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/01/2023

Thursday, Jun 01, 2023

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA and MLB.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with the opening game of the NBA Final,s with the Denver Nuggets hosting the Miami Heat on ABC at 8:30 PM ET. The Nuggets are on a six-game winning streak after beating the Los Angeles Lakers on the road, 113-111, as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd. The Heat come off a 103-84 upset victory on the road against Boston as a 7.5-point underdog in the seventh game of the Eastern Conference finals on Monday. These two teams played twice in the regular season. Denver won both contests with a 124-119 victory on December 30th followed up by a 112-108 upset win as a 1-point underdog on Februrary 13th. Denver is an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 219 (all odds from DraftKings). The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has seven games on its schedule. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 1:07 PM ET. Kevin Gausman takes the mound to pitch against Freddy Peralta of the Brewers. Toronto is a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against the Philadelphia Phillies, with the Mets turning to Max Scherzer to pitch against the Phillies Taijuan Walker. New York is a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres travel to Miami to play the Marlins, with Joe Musgrove pitching for the Padres against Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins. San Diego is a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Colorado Rockies at 3:40 PM ET. The Diamondbacks turn to Zach Davies to pitch against the Rockies’ Chase Anderson. Arizona is a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 7:10 PM ET. Chris Sale pitches for the Red Sox against Hunter Greene for the Reds. Boston is a -165 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 7:40 PM ET. The Twins tap Pablo Lopez to battle against the Guardians' Tyler Bibee. Minnesota is a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels on FS1 at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros have lost two of three games after their 8-2 defeat against the Twins on Wednesday. Their 32-23 record places them in second place in the AL West, three games behind the Texas Rangers, who are in first place. The Angels have won two of three games after their 12-5 win in Chicago against the White Sox on Wednesday. They are in third place in the AL West with a 30-27 record, six games behind the Rangers. Framber Valdez takes the ball for Houston to pitch against Reid Detmers for the Angels. The Astros are a -215 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.

The Improving Baltimore Orioles

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The Baltimore Orioles are demonstrating themselves to be legitimate contenders in the loaded American League East division. The Orioles had revenge on their mind on Tuesday after getting shut out by Logan Allen in the opening game of their three-game series with the Guardians on Monday. The Orioles had won eighteen of their last twenty-seven games when playing with revenge from a shutout loss to their opponent. Baltimore has lost three of their last four games, yet they have still won twenty-six of their last thirty-eight games. Their 34-20 record had them in second place in the AL East behind Tampa Bay who have the best record in baseball. The Orioles' rise in the standing appeared legitimate at the time with them outscoring their opponents by 0.5 runs per game with them averaging 4.9 runs per game. Baltimore had won twenty-three of their last thirty-five games after losing three of four. The Orioles had won twelve of their last eighteen games at home when priced as a money line favorite priced by the oddsmakers at -110 or higher. Baltimore is getting great pitching out of their bullpen with the team leading MLB in holds before getting to their closer Felix Bautista. At home at Camden Yards, the Orioles had a 2.74 era and a 1.25 whip going into that game. The Orioles have been getting reliable pitching from some key members of their starting rotation. Kyle Gibson got the start on Tuesday for manager Brandon Hyde after only giving up one earned run in his previous two starts. He pitched seven shutout innings in his previous start in New York against the Yankees. For the season, he had a 6-3 record with a 3.82 era and a 1.30 whip in eleven starts. The right-hander does not induce many strikeouts yet he is inducing soft contact. His hard-hit rate of 27.0 for the batted balls he is allowing into play is his lowest since 2014. Gibson offered his team a solid outing with 5 2/3 innings of work while allowing three runs. Baltimore won the game by an 8-5 score, and the Team won the Major League Baseball Game of the Month. The vaunted Orioles bullpen continued to shine with Yennier Cano pitching 1 1/3 scoreless innings to earn his 11th hold of the season before yielding to Bautista who pitched a scoreless ninth inning to register his 14th save. Gibson has seven wins on the season. Baltimore lost the final game of the series on Wednesday, 12-8, yet still entire June with many reasons for optimism. With a 35-21 record, they have the third-best record in the American League. They have one more loss than the Rangers having played one more game than Texas, and they are four games behind a Tampa Bay Rays team that has the best record in baseball. Led by the breakout season from the rookie Cano, the Orioles bullpen has 48 holds which were ten more than the next closest team going into the week. As we enter the summer months of the Major League Baseball season, despite their recent inexperience in the playoffs, the Orioles are a team that should not be treated lightly. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

Who Should Be Targeted in the 76ers Firing Squad?

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The Philadelphia 76ers blew their best chance to end their Eastern Conference semifinals series with Boston in Game 6 when they had the Celtics playing in an elimination game in front of their home fans up 3-2 in this series. The 76ers fell behind early by 15 points before rallying to take the lead, 73-71, going into the fourth quarter. Yet Philadelphia was only able to score 13 points in the final stanza and lost at home, 95-86. That loss set up the 76ers having to go on the road and attempt to beat Boston in their own building for a Game 7. These Game 7 situations have been a house of horrors for Philadelphia and the leaders of that team. Head coach Doc Rivers had lost nine of the twelve games he has coached in a Game 7. Joel Embiid had lost both his Game 7s in his career. James Harden had lost three of his five Game 7s. Embiid had only led his team to victory five times in his eighteen games against the Celtics in Boston. The 76ers’ upset victory in Game 5 of this series was the only time in his seven playoff games on the road in Boston that Embiid led his team to victory (Philadelphia’s Game 1 win in Boston was before he returned from injury). Philadelphia did have a 4-1 straight-up record on the road in this postseason at the time going into Game 7. Yet they were only scoring 103.8 points per game in those five contests. However, they had allowed the Celtics to post an offensive rating of 121.1 in those three games. The 76ers scoring drought in the fourth quarter on Friday is of grave concern. After only scoring only 14 points in the final twelve minutes, that game was just the fourth time all season that Philadelphia failed to score 90 or more points. They did not cover the point spread in their next game in those three previous games this season. That streak continued in Game 7 with the Celtics crushing the 76ers, 112-88, to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Team Del Genio backers were rewarded with our NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year winner on Boston for that Game 7 victory.Philadelphia now finds itself in a transition period. Rivers was let go as their head coach soon after as if he was responsible for the players making only 31 of 83 shots from the field for a 37% field goal percentage. The 76ers missed 29 of their 37 shots from 3-point range for a 22% shooting percentage from 3-point land. Lest anyone forget, Rivers has an NBA championship as a head coach with the Boston Celtics in 2008.Embiid did not have his best game. He scored only 15 points on 5 of 18 shooting. Harden only contributed 9 points on 3 of 11 shooting and a 1 of 5 mark from 3-point range. Rumors now circulate that Harden will return to Houston to play with the Rockets once again. Harden would be rejoining the team that he was a leader of when they missed 27 straight shots from 3-point land in a Game 7 in the Western Conference finals against Golden State. Daryl Morey was the general manager of that Houston Rockets team in 2018. He is now President of Basketball Operations of this 76ers team. He seems to be evading any blame or responsibility for the Philadelphia exit from the playoffs. In comparison to Rivers, Morey does not have an NBA championship run as a player, coach, or executive. He has convinced ownership that he is the person that can bring a title to Philadelphia. Good luck - TDG.

Exposing Some Myths Regarding Power Ratings and NBA Game 7 Home Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The Boston Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired in Game Six to pull out a 104-103 win on the road in Miami. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I continue to remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim. With seemingly all the momentum, when I assessed the Game Seven situation with a clear head, I initially considered that perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams had a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams gets muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams were only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am reluctant to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size was too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it was fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And perhaps most importantly on that issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since Boston was the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that had not then played on the road. Ultimately, I endorsed and invested in the Heat plus the points because I lacked the confidence that the Celtics could close a game out. Those 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back was the latest example of that phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston? The Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I was comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation. Giving a Miami team that had already pulled off eight upset victories in this postseason eight or so points as the underdog seemed off. Fundamentally, I considered the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed. These systems were largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat ranked second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark was much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also made 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that was still higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year. Regarding power rankings, what data should be used — and what data should be de-emphasized? The Miami Heat present a fascinating example of this problem for the Quants since they have been such a better 3-point shooting team since their opening-round series with Milwaukee. But if the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument to be had that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. If the methodology is unwilling to stop at the postseason and needs to include the regular season data, then why not the data from last season or all the data since 2020? Where does one draw the line? Is there a shred of evidence to support your subjective decision to draw the line where you did? When people (like me) argue that quantitative methodologies that claim to be removed from subjective bias are bullshit, this is yet another example of this phenomenon. So, I thought there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I had more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching. We were rewarded with a 103-84 victory by the Heat who pulled off their ninth upset win in the postseason to advance to the NBA Finals. Winning with Miami and the Under in that game has us going into the NBA Finals this season on an 18-6 (75%) NBA run. I don’t want to label this a “hot streak” since Hollywood Sports is now 78-36 (68%) in our last 114 NBA games in the playoffs. Isn’t this the expectation? It should be.Best of luck — Frank.

Anatomy of a 20-1 Winner/Handicapping Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The best thing to ever happen to lazy sports reporters who know little about the game of golf outside of their next tee time was the establishment of the LIV Tour. Like political journalists who do not understand health care policy or what the debt ceiling is, the opportunity to bypass policy discussion to instead speculate on the potential political fallout from politicians taking political stances allows these journalists to sound smart without them saying anything of substance. When politics becomes theater, the theater critic is elevated by critiquing the work of the “artists.” Similarly, sports journalists can use their five minutes of air time or their 500 words of written media to speculate on all the theater behind the PGA Tour players once again interacting directly with golfers who “defected” to the LIV Tour. “Will Rory say anything to Patrick?” gets elevated to content with the sports journalists moving to the safe space of theater criticism that allows them to successfully avoid having to (incorrectly) pick the winner. If only there was a LIV Tour for the NFL (or NBA, or MLB …). I am sorry if I am bursting the bubble for anyone who still clutches to the belief that there is some rivalry between the professionals on the PGA Tour and the LIV Tour. There is not. These are millionaires who play golf for a living and who spend much of their time on the course complaining to each other it is unfair that their tournament winners are taxed. The players that did not leave for the LIV Tour still thank their lucky stars every night for its development since it compelled the PGA Tour to change some of its policies including the establishment of elevated events with bigger payouts. The PGA pros are playing more golf this year — and they are making lots more money that “suddenly” appeared in response that the LIV Tour threat had on the suits who run the PGA Tour. This is a long detour to discuss the topic at hand: Brooks Koepka and his PGA Championship earlier this month. Our Best Bet to win the PGA Championship was on Brooks Koepka, who was listed at DraftKings at +2000. With Scottie Scheffler the favorite at +700 and Jon Rahm just behind him at +750, those pros had underlay values at such short prices. We were on Rahm for the Masters — and I faded all the LIV golfers (like Koepka) concerned about the lack of rigorous competition (with the guaranteed money) and the 54-hole tournaments. Koepka kept me nervous all weekend leading the tournament after each round before succumbing to the brutal Sunday schedule where he played about a third of the tournament given rain delays and the surge by Rahm. He was given no favors having to play more than 27 holes on that Sunday. But it was clear that he is as healthy as he has been in years. And the lack of being tested from week to week on the LIV Tour is not a concern for me when it comes to Koepka since he usually treated the non-majors on the PGA Tour as his practice rounds. Koepka had already won four major championships including two PGA Championships. He had five top-fives at PGA Championship events and six top-13s in his eight competitions overall. He seemed to be a great fit for this course as well. His PGA Championship at Beth Page was another brutal Par 70 course — and his 2019 US Open victory at Shinnecock was another long Par 70 course. Koepka ranks second in the field in scoring at difficult Par 70 courses consisting of 7200 or more yards. We were rewarded with Koepka winning the PGA Championship at the Oak Hills Country Club by two strokes. That was our tenth win in the last 28 Golf Reports going back to last summer and our fifth first-place winner in 2023. Going into June, regulars now have over 61 weeks of free rolls from previous PGA Tour winnings since last summer -- meaning they could invest their X into our Best Bet, Top Overlay, and Long Shot each week for the next 61 events and still keep a profit. That'll continue to work. Best of luck — Frank.

Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 31, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The WNBA was back in action on Tuesday with four games.Underdogs went 3-1, including a pair of double-digit pups.For the season, underdogs are now 13-11. Also, totals are dead even with 12 overs and 12 unders.The Atlanta Dream made easy work of the Chicago Sky, who were the last undefeated ATS team until last night. Rhyne Howard scored 20 points, Allisha Gray and rookie Haley Jones each added 13 and the Dream rolled past Chicago, 83-65.The Indiana Fever was a formidable foe as a 12 1/2-point underdog at Connecticut before falling to the Sun, 81-78. Tiffany Hayes scored 22 points, Brionna Jones had 19 points and 11 rebounds, and the Sun held off a late charge by the Fever.The Dallas Wings slipped past the winless Minnesota Lynx, one of two teams without a victory this season. Natasha Howard scored 25 points, Satou Sabally had 23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals to lead the Wings. Western Conference Player of the Week Arike Ogunbowale finished with 21 points for Dallas.Finally, in the nightcap, it was the New York Liberty holding off the Seattle Storm, the other winless team in the league. It was Breanna Stewart's first game back in Seattle since going to the Liberty as a free agent during the offseason. Stewart had 25 points and 11 rebounds in her return and the Liberty beat Seattle 86-78. Seattle got within single digits early in the fourth before Sabrina Ionescu drained a 3-pointer, one of her six treys in the game. Ionescu finished with 20 points for New York.The WNBA is off on Wednesday.From the MLB card, six of the eight underdogs won Tuesday, with one game a pick'em. The most notable underdog victory was undoubtedly the Oakland Athletics (+215 DraftKings) in their 2-1 win over the Atlanta Braves. While it was only the second time Oakland has won consecutive games this season, perhaps the bigger story is the suddenly struggling Braves, who have lost six of their last nine despite their offense producing with a .254 batting average and 14 homers in the nine games. It's the pitching staff that's been struggling, as Atlanta's staff has a 4.76 ERA since May 22, and has been smacked around for 11 homers. Opponents are hitting .258 in the nine games.I delivered a winner on Tuesday in baseball with my National League West Game of the Week on the Diamondbacks Run Line over the Colorado Rockies, a 5-1 victory. Tonight I have my final MLB Division Play of May - be it Game, Dog or Total - as I am ready to roll with an MLB DIVISION DOG OF THE MONTH.Though the NHL won't start until Saturday with Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, I will keep these notes handy for you.NHL Playoff Notes: Road teams are 46-37 in the postseason. Underdogs are 40-41 in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of roughly $1500. The Over is 43-39-1, but the Under has cashed 30 of the last 53 games. There have been 23 overtime games, and road teams are 15-8 in those games. NHL favorites higher than -150 are 14-34 on the puck line this postseason. Stanley Cup Notes:FLORIDA The Panthers have won 16 of their last 21 road games. Florida enters the SCF on an 18-6 win streak. The Panthers check in at seventh in the postseason with 3.11 goals-for per game. Florida's goals-against average during the playoffs is 2.69, ranking sixth. VEGAS Vegas has won 13 of 17 against Atlantic Division teams. The Golden Knights are on an 18-6 roll at home. The Golden Knights rank third in the playoffs with 3.65 goals-for per game. Vegas is fourth in the postseason with a goals-against average of 2.65. SERIES The home team has won the last five meetings. The Golden Knights have won five straight meetings in Vegas. Vegas is on a 5-2 roll in the overall series.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 05/31/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features action in the MLB. Fourteen games take place in Major League Baseball. The Texas Rangers travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 PM ET. Dane Dunning takes the mound for the Rangers against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Tigers. The Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels at 2:10 PM ET. The White Sox turn to Lance Lynn in their starting rotation to go against the Angels’ Jaime Barria. Chicago is a -135 money-line favorite, with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). The Tampa Bay Rays play in Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. Zach Eflin pitches for the Rays against Justin Steele for the Cubs. Tampa Bay is a -135 money-line road favorite. The Cleveland Guardians visit Baltimore to play the Orioles at 3:05 PM ET. The Guardians tap Shane Bieber in their starting rotation to face a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Orioles. The Atlanta Braves are in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 PM ET. Jared Shutter takes the hill for the Braves to duel against James Kaprielian for the A’s. Atlanta is a -215 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 3:45 PM ET. The Giants tap Alex Wood to battle against the Pirates’ Mitch Keller. San Francisco is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the Washington Nationals at 4:10 PM ET. Noah Syndergaard takes the ball for the Dodgers to pitch against Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. Los Angeles is a -240 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The San Diego Padres travel to Miami to play the Marlins at 6:40 PM ET. The Padres’ Blake Snell takes the mound to pitch against the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett. San Diego is a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Milwaukee Brewers at 7:07 PM ET. Alex Manoah starts for the Blue Jays against Julio Teheran for the Brewers. Toronto is a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Cincinnati Reds, with the Red Sox turning to James Paxton to pitch against the Reds’ Luke Weaver. Boston is a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 10. The Philadelphia Phillies play in New York against the Mets, with Aaron Nola taking the ball for the Phillies to face Carlos Carrasco for the Mets. Philadelphia is a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros are at home against the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros turn to Hunter Brown to take the ball and pitch against the Twins’ Louie Garland. Houston is a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more games conclude the MLB card at 9:40 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Colorado Rockies, with Tommy Henry pitching for the Diamondbacks against Dinelson Lamet for the Rockies. Arizona is a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the New York Yankees, with the Mariners sending out George Kirby to pitch against the Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt. Seattle is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5.

How to Bet the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

by Oskeim Sports

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

If you’re betting on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, you’d better have a strategy. Otherwise, betting on a whim is a waste of your money. The top offensive rookie in the league plays one of three positions and possesses specific qualities. Here, we show you how to maximize your bets in this category. Where to Start Make sure the player is a wide receiver, a running back, or a quarterback when putting a wager on the NFL Offensive ROTY. Tight ends and linemen don’t win this award. When you look at rookie QBs, RBs, and WRs, they need to play. Guys that win this award typically play 15 games or more in their first year. Additionally, it is advantageous if the player plays in around 15 to 16 games each season. That player will be able to compile the kinds of stats that garner season-ending honors if they participate in the majority of games. Defining ROTY According to its definition, the best offensive first-year player in the National Football League receives the Associated Press NFL Rookie of the Year Award each year. Now, it helps to understand who votes for the winner. Voting is open to the 50 Associated Press journalists who cover the NFL. They vote right after the last game of the regular season. Typically, two to five players receive votes and there is usually no dispute over the winner. Voters normally vote for the players with the best statistical seasons. If they don’t have strong numbers; they aren’t winning the ROTY. The Numbers Speaking of numbers, actual passing yards matter more than metrics like air yards or yards per attempt. Running backs and wide receivers usually need about 1,300 yards or more to be a ROTY winner. To accumulate those kinds of numbers, a rookie has to play. Since 2010, nine ROTY winners have played at least 15 games and 28 of the 39 players that received votes since 2010 played in every single game. Playing in every game – or at least most games – is what allows rookies to produce big numbers. Past Winners Up until the early 2000s, the ROTY was a running back-heavy award. With rookie quarterbacks often playing early now, QBs have now taken nine of the past 20 trophies. Running backs and wide receivers won the other 11. Each of the last two ROTYs – Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson – were receivers. More receivers are being taken early in the draft and, as a result, are playing earlier. Timing Timing is everything for ROTY bettors. Many might not have touched Justin Herbert at 30-1 as a rookie QB with the Chargers. But, when starter Tyrod Taylor went down, Herbert stepped in and had an outstanding season to earn the award. In 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. missed the first four games of the season. That caused his value to drop, but he eventually ended up winning the ROTY. The point is that bettors might have to wager on a guy that isn’t a starter or isn’t playing a lot at the beginning of the season in order to get longer odds. Recent victories have gone to many players. Since 2009, six winners have earned odds of at least +1200. The timing is critical for gamblers. Team Matters The ROTY winner has played on a team that has averaged 7.9 victories since 2010. Some (Saquon Barkley, 3-13) were on truly bad teams, while others (Dak Prescott, 13-3) were on really good ones. Only four of the winning quarterbacks in the prior six seasons had a winning percentage over .500. Given that the worst teams frequently select toward the top of the draft, this should make sense. Because the quarterback is so important, teams choose to draft them first. When you draft a QB so high, it is expected that he will play early. The Draft & More Twelve of the past 20 ROTY winners were chosen in the first 10 picks in their draft. Players who are chosen highly usually have more opportunities to play right away. That, of course, leads to the numbers we discussed earlier. Running back is the only position where non-first-round picks have won. Although they have earned a few votes, offensive linemen have never taken home the prize. There have been six votes cast since 2010 on an offensive lineman. Victories for the quarterback matter when the vote is close. Despite Ezekiel Elliott having the second-best rookie running back season of all time in 2016, Dak Prescott won the ROTY. He threw just four interceptions and led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record.

CFL 2023 West Division Preview (The Prairies)

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Canadian Football League West Division The Prairies CFL 2023Saskatchewan Roughriders – Projected win total is 7.5 and last season the Roughriders won 6 games. Off a rare disappointing campaign, the Riders should bounce back here. Football is huge in Saskatchewan and the addition of QB Trevor Harris should pay immediate dividends. They also added receiving talent and have a new offensive coordinator. There could be some growing pains earlier this season as a result of all the new additions but then as this team jells as the season progresses, no one will want to face them. They have a defense capable of ball-hawking and should create some turnovers and get key stops. A .500 season is not out of the question and I would not be surprised to see 9 wins for them this season. Winnipeg Blue Bombers – Projected win total is 12.5 and last season the Blue Bombers won 15 games. Of course this total may seem low but the Bombers getting 15 wins last season was a case of a lot of breaks going their way for sure. However, the one break that Winnipeg did not get was losing the Grey Cup by a single point. This team will be hungry to get back to the big game and they have the talent and depth to make a run for sure. However, I would not be surprised, given the improvement of other teams in the West Division, to see them struggle to get past 11 wins this season. Remember they were going for 3rd straight Grey Cup win last season. It is hard to consistently ascend to that level. A lot of things have to break the right way for a team. Will QB Zach Collaros again be able to stay healthy? He has had injury issues in recent seasons but this Bombers team does remain mostly intact plus brings back Lawler at wide receiver and he is genuinely happy to be back in Winnipeg. This team has a bullseye on its back again this season. Look for 11 or 12 wins at the most because other teams have improved in the West.

CFL 2023 West Division Preview (BC/Alberta)

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Canadian Football League West Division BC/Alberta CFL 2023BC Lions – Projected win total is 9.5 and last season the Lions won 12 games. QB Rourke was a big part of the BC offense and he is now in Jacksonville in the NFL with the Jaguars. Also, WR Burnham who was a star for the Lions has now retired. So this is a team that has lost some key pieces from the one that knocked off Calgary in the post-season last year. Although Vernon Adams, Jr could surprise at QB, he is a little difficult to trust stepping into this new situation. I do like the fact they arguably strengthened the trenches a little bit on both sides of the ball but the key will be how Adams does under center. Calgary Stampeders – Projected win total is 9.5 and last season the Stamps won 12 games. Bo Levi Mitchell is now with Hamilton. This Stampeders defense also has undergone some changes. They can have a strong ground game but the key will be the receiving strength they get. I do not trust this group completely and it is now Maier under center. I do like him at QB but he wrapped up the season with a 5-5 TD-INT ratio the last stretch of games. If they can’t establish the strong aerial game with a rather questionable WR group than how good can this ground game really be? The Stamps take a step back. Edmonton Elks – Projected win total is 6.5 and last season the Elks won 4 games. The only way to go for Edmonton is up, really. You can see by the projected win total here that an improved season is indeed expected here for the Elks. The key here is they are in the 2nd season with Chris Jones at the helm and now this team has added some key pieces in terms of receiving talent but also at other positions including on defense. This team looks very much improved and if they can get strong QB play from Taylor Cornelius this team could even get to 8 or 9 wins this season. This is a team I will be looking for value to play on early in the season in particular.

2023 MLB End of May - Real or Fake: Seattle Mariners

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Seattle has overcome a slow start to post solid returns in the month of May, can the Mariners return to the playoffs? Now with two months of the MLB season complete the sample size has reached a meaningful level and the standings are taking form through all the adjustments for the 2023 season. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Seattle Mariners, darlings of last season’s playoffs. Is it a real run to relevance or a fake short-term boost for a mediocre squad? Seattle has seemed to be an overachiever with close-game fortune the past two years, but the Mariners seemed to prove doubters correct with a 12-16 start to the season. Seattle has suddenly emerged above .500 however with a 16-10 run in May while +30 in scoring in that span. The Mariners are 3-5 in extra-inning games and 6-12 in one-run games in great contrast to the past two seasons, yet Seattle keeps closing the gap in the AL West, now just 6.5 games behind Texas. The Mariners do have three teams ahead of them in the division including the 2022 World Series champions. The Angels have played above .500 baseball as well and Seattle is 7-0 and +24 in scoring vs. Oakland, a team on a historically bad pace. Seattle’s schedule in June is very difficult as after they close the month of May with the Yankees, they have a three-stop road trip going from Arlington to San Diego to Anaheim. Late in June the Mariners will play in New York and Baltimore vs. AL East contenders as June is likely to take a toll on the record and placement in the standings for Seattle. Luis Castillo has lived up to his billing as the staff ace while Logan Gilbert and George Kirby have turned in solid results as well to make the Mariners a formidable rotation. Bryce Miller has also emerged as an impressive rookie to add to the pitching depth with Seattle still able to turn to Marco Gonzales as a change-of-pace starter in the rotation. Gilbert and Kirby can be questioned in their ability to be used for 200-inning seasons as starters while Miller has had some good fortune in his six starts as Seattle may not be able to maintain its elite pitching numbers all season long. The Mariners have one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball and have been in MLB’s bottom six in batting average and OPS for the season despite the winning record. Recent injuries to AJ Pollock and Dylan Moore don’t help that situation while Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic have proven to be streaky at the plate. Seattle has four players already with 60 or more strikeouts as the Mariners have the fourth most strikeouts in MLB. The biggest red flag for the Mariners is going 7-15 vs. winning teams this season while the three other contenders in the AL West all have at least 14 wins against above .500 squads. Seattle’s lineup has had success vs. left-handers this season winning 60 percent of its games vs. left-handed starters but there are not that many lefty starters in the division and Texas, Houston, and the Angels have all had much better results vs. right-handers. Ultimately Seattle’s strong month of May would look rather ordinary without those seven wins vs. the Athletics, who they won’t face again until late August when it may be too late to make a run at the playoffs. Verdict on the 2023 Seattle Mariners start: Fake Contender

2023 MLB End of May - Real or Fake: San Francisco Giants

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

The Giants are making a surge with strong results in the month of May. Can this team compete for a playoff spot in 2023? Now with two months of the MLB season complete the sample size has reached a meaningful level and the standings are taking form through all the adjustments for the 2023 season. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the San Francisco Giants. Is it a real run to relevance or a fake short-term boost for a mediocre squad? The Giants had the best regular season record in baseball in 2021, winning 107 games to win the NL West title. Last season San Francisco fell back to the pack, finishing 81-81. San Francisco’s prospects for 2023 brought mixed opinions as the Giants struck out on a few big-name free agent bids. As the end of May approaches the Giants have climbed just above .500 with a recent surge, is that a sustainable pace or is this squad going to finish out of the running? San Francisco is 28-26 with a +9 scoring differential, going 16-11 at home and 12-15 on the road, for a profile that fits the record. After going 11-16 in March and April the Giants are 17-10 so far in May and +37 in scoring. The Giants have fared poorly in blowout score games and are only 5-5 in one-run results while 1-2 in extra-inning games as there hasn’t been great fortune in the win/loss record. The recent schedule creating the rise in late May has come through a quality path as well, going 5-1 on a home stand against Philadelphia and Miami, while taking five of seven on a road trip through Minnesota and Milwaukee. The upcoming schedule is a mixed bag with the Orioles visiting in early June but also manageable opportunities with the Rockies, Cubs, and Cardinals. The late June path includes facing the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks in succession for a critical run in the standings. The pitching for the Giants has average season numbers but it is a misleading picture. The starting pitching has been quite good, but the bullpen had awful early season numbers. San Francisco relievers have a 0.45 ERA with a 0.70 WHIP in the current 10-game splits as the unit has turned a corner. The starting pitching trio of Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Cobb has been excellent this season and the results appear to be sustainable. Ross Stripling is on the IL right now while Sean Manaea has had disastrous results as the back of the rotation hasn’t worked out as planned. Alex Wood is still there as a capable option however while Jakob Junis has settled into a long relief option that could eventually return to a starting role as the overall pitching depth looks promising for the Giants. Much like in 2021, the offense lacks big names, but Michael Conforto is having an all-star caliber season while Thairo Estrada continues to prove he can be an everyday player. The Giants are fifth in MLB in home runs hit and while it is a high-strikeout lineup, there is little reason to think San Francisco can’t continue to be a borderline top 10 scoring and OPS squad as they are now. Arizona has been a surprise contender in the NL West, but the Diamondbacks have a few red flags that suggest being there in September may be less likely. The Padres have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball and while San Diego is likely to make a run at some point, there is a chance to team could fold and sell off expensive parts as well if the Dodgers look too difficult to catch. Los Angeles is 33-22 to pace the division but Los Angeles hasn’t been as dominant as in the past few seasons as this division race is still open and the Giants look like a team that will be in the mix. Verdict on the 2023 San Francisco Giants start: Real Contender

Articles

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/01/2023

The Improving Baltimore Orioles

Who Should Be Targeted in the 76ers Firing Squad?

Exposing Some Myths Regarding Power Ratings and NBA Game 7 Home Teams

Anatomy of a 20-1 Winner/Handicapping Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship

Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 31, 2023

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 05/31/2023

How to Bet the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

CFL 2023 West Division Preview (The Prairies)

CFL 2023 West Division Preview (BC/Alberta)

2023 MLB End of May - Real or Fake: Seattle Mariners

2023 MLB End of May - Real or Fake: San Francisco Giants

Home

Links

Picks

Big Al's Sports Picks Info