May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

With most starters now making at least 10 starts in the 2025 season there is a good sample size to consider at this point in the MLB season. There are several pitchers that stand out as overachievers as we approach the end of the month of May and these four National League starters may be worth considering playing against in upcoming starting efforts. 

Chad Patrick – Milwaukee Brewers

One of the leading rookie of the year threats, Patrick has provided a boost for a Brewers pitching staff that has battled injuries this season. Patrick went 14-1 in 24 starts in AAA last season as he appeared ready for the leap to the MLB level, pitching in the minors since 2021 with Arizona, Oakland, and now Milwaukee. A decent 9.6 K/9 from AAA hasn’t translated to the big league as Patrick has a 7.9 K/9 so far this season. He has a very low home run rate and a very high strand rate in his 12-game sample however, and those numbers are likely to shift towards the mean in the coming weeks. Patrick has a 3.29 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP and he is yet to turn in an MLB start of six innings with fewer than two runs allowed, as he has lasted six innings only three times this season. The Brewers have a losing record in his starts and his road splits offers some concern as opponents are batting .299 with a .765 OPS against him away from American Family Field. His solid results in May have come with four of his last five starts at home and Milwaukee has several difficult road games ahead in June, starting the month in Philadelphia, while also visiting Cincinnati, Chicago (Cubs), and Minneapolis. Teams are also likely to have a better scouting report and preparation for Patrick at this point as well. 

Corbin Burnes – Arizona Diamondbacks

Burnes has been one of the better starters in baseball since landing a full-time starting role in 2020. He won the NL Cy Young in 2021 and has been an All-Star each of the past four seasons. He delivered a fine season for the Orioles last season but moving back to the NL has provided a drop in the results for Burnes so far this season, even if his 2.72 ERA keeps him valued as one of the top starters in the NL for Arizona. In 10 starts Burnes has a 4.09 FIP and his walk rate has ballooned to the highest of his career at 3.8 BB/9. He has a strand rate approaching 81 percent, the highest of his career since his brief rookie season in 2018 as a reliever, as a lot has gone right for Burnes to get out jams so far this season. Burnes has allowed three or more runs in half of his starts and while the numbers have trended in a positive direction in May, he also faced Pittsburgh and Colorado in his last two home starts to help his splits at Chase Field. Burnes remains a quality starting option, but Arizona is just 5-5 in his starts and now on the wrong side of age 30, the best years for the right-hander may be behind him. 

Jake Irvin – Washington Nationals

Approaching 400 innings in his career, Irvin has had consistent strikeout, home run, and walk rates now in his third season as a starter for Washington. After posting a 4.61 ERA in 2023 and a 4.41 ERA in 2024, his ERA is suddenly 3.42 through 11 starts in 2025. His FIP is 4.47, right where you would expect it to be, however. Irvin has enjoyed a .229 BABIP so far this season, catching some good fortune on balls in play, even with one of baseball’s worst rated defenses behind him. Irvin is coming off an eight-inning scoreless outing in his last start for one of the best starts of his career, but three of his five road starts have come against three of MLB’s worst teams so far this season for a favorable early season draw. With a 4-1 record and a good ERA, Irvin may start to get a bit of attention in upcoming Washington games, but his 6.2 K/9 isn’t worth supporting in most matchups.  

Andrew Heaney – Pittsburgh Pirates

May has been Andrew Heaney’s best month throughout his career with a 3.53 ERA in over 145 innings of work. He has usually been a much worse pitcher later in the season including a 4.59 career ERA after the All-Star break. Heaney has turned in a decent month of May for Pittsburgh with three excellent outings among five starts, but he shouldn’t be counted on to maintain his current 3.41 ERA. His FIP is more than a run higher at 4.45 while his strikeout-to-walk ratio is below 2:1, with his current K/9 of 6.5 the worst since his brief first season with Miami in 2014. Heaney picked up a World Series ring with the Rangers after a solid season in 2023 including pitching well in his Game 4 World Series start but he is now 8-18 in decisions since that game and the roster behind him isn’t likely to improve as a disappointing season for the Pirates continues.