April Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

With most starters now making at least five starts in the 2025 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four National League starters may be worth avoiding in upcoming starting efforts.  

Nick Lodolo – Cincinnati Reds

A 1st round pick in 2019, Lodolo made big waves in limited action in 2022 with the Reds posting an 11.4 K/9 in 19 starts. Lodolo was inconsistent the past two seasons before regaining a firm spot in the rotation this season. So far Lodolo has been a leader for the Reds with a 2.25 ERA, but his K/9 is only 6.8 for a major change compared to his past results. Lodolo has a .214 BABIP in 36 innings compared to a career BABIP of .308 as a lot has gone right for the lanky southpaw so far in 2025. The Great American Ballpark is a notoriously difficult pitching park, and his career ERA is 4.97 in Cincinnati. Not surprisingly only two of his six starts this season have been at home as the early returns for Lodolo are not likely to last. 

Brandon Pfaadt – Arizona Diamondbacks

A postseason hero for the Diamondbacks in the 2023 run to the World Series, Pfaadt had rather average numbers in his first full season as a starter in 2024. This season his strand rate is 20 percent higher than it was last season which has led to his 2.78 ERA so far in six starts, nearly two runs lower than his 4.71 ERA last season. Pfaadt has good command and has always enjoyed a low walk rate but his 5-1 start in 2025 includes just a 7.3 K/9. The schedule has likely played a role in his strong start however, facing one start against a team with a winning record in his six starts and that game provided his only loss. 

Andre Pallante – St. Louis Cardinals

Pallante was primarily an inning-eating reliever for the Cardinals in 2022 and 2023 but he made 20 starts last season with some success. He has never been a great strikeout pitcher, but he has usually had a low home run rate. Ironically he has allowed six home runs already in six starts in 2025, but his numbers have been decent with a 4.13 ERA in nearly 33 innings of work. Pallante has a 5.33 FIP however and after allowing 10 hits and four runs in his first three starts, he has since allowed 20 hits and 11 runs in his last three starts. The numbers may continue the latter trajectory for Pallante as he is likely only a temporary back of the rotation starter for the Cardinals. 

Spence Schwellenbach – Atlanta Braves 

A 2nd round pick in 2021, Schwellenbach has a bright future as he is still under 25 years old. In 21 starts last season he had great numbers for Atlanta but so far in 2025 there are some red flags despite a similar ERA so far this season. Schwellenbach has seen his K/9 drop considerably this season down to just 7.9 while he has enjoyed some good fortune with a .255 BABIP so far this season. Since posting 10 strikeouts against Miami in his second start of the season Schwellenbach has only 19 strikeouts in his last four starts combined while also allowing 14 runs. He has struggled in his last two road starts and his success last season was built with only 57 road innings. His label as an elite prospect will keep Schwellenbach priced as a favorite in most outings but some inconsistency should be expected to continue.