by ASA, Inc.
Sunday, Jul 13, 2025
Home Run Derby Champion 2025 - Byron Buxton (+900)
The former number two overall pick makes his first Derby appearance while also earning the honor of his second All-Star team selection. Cal Raleigh (+270) is the favorite to win but the field is wide open, illustrated by the fact that no player’s odds are remotely close to even. Buxton has the power to crush homers as good, if not better than anyone else in the league, hitting a 479ft nuke back on June 11th, which is the farthest ball hit amongst the field. He is fresh off a flawless game on Saturday, going five for five with a homer in a dismantling of the Pirates. One thing that allows Buxton to hit for power and contact is his bat speed, which ranked in the 90th percentile according to Statcast. He also ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to hard hit percentage. Any way you slice it, Buxton crushes the ball at an elite rate, making him a prime candidate to provide a sizable return at his price.
The former number two overall pick makes his first Derby appearance while also earning the honor of his second All-Star team selection. Cal Raleigh (+270) is the favorite to win but the field is wide open, illustrated by the fact that no player’s odds are remotely close to even. Buxton has the power to crush homers as good, if not better than anyone else in the league, hitting a 479ft nuke back on June 11th, which is the farthest ball hit amongst the field. He is fresh off a flawless game on Saturday, going five for five with a homer in a dismantling of the Pirates. One thing that allows Buxton to hit for power and contact is his bat speed, which ranked in the 90th percentile according to Statcast. He also ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to hard hit percentage. Any way you slice it, Buxton crushes the ball at an elite rate, making him a prime candidate to provide a sizable return at his price.
To Make Semifinal round - Matt Olson (-114)
Olson takes Acuna’s place as the home team representative for the Braves who are hosting the festivities at Truist Park. Even as a late replacement, Olson is no slouch, mashing 54 home runs for Atlanta in 2023, setting the franchise record. The Braves faithful will no doubt bring Olson some extra juice. Another advantage is that Olson is a lefty, allowing him to possibly sneak a few extra homers out of the closer right field wall (325ft to right vs 335ft to left). He remains one of the best power hitters in the game and ranks in the 98th percentile when it comes to exit velocity according to Statcast. Olson seems a solid pick to deliver early, but will need to use his energy efficiently to make a deep run.
2025 Total Home Runs Hit - Under 240.5 (-113)
There were 225 home runs hit in last year's Derby, and there have not been any significant rule changes from last year's format. It's never fun to root for the under, especially in a fan favorite event, but in order to hit the 241 mark, some massive performances would have to take place. There is a lot of firepower in the field, it just does not seem likely we add 16 more dingers to the event in 2025 vs last year. There were 341 home runs hit in 2023, but that was before the rule changes to emphasize efficiency over volume.
