NHL Playoff Series Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers First Round Series Betting Prediction (2025 NHL Playoffs)

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Series (-105)

The Tampa Bay Lightning are a solid bet at -105 to beat the Florida Panthers in the 2025 NHL Playoffs first round, driven by offensive depth, goaltending, and health advantages. Tampa led the NHL with 3.60 goals per game (GF/GP), powered by Kucherov (121 points), Point (42 goals), and Guentzel (41 goals), while allowing 2.40 GA/GP since February 1 (sixth-fewest). Florida scored 3.00 GF/GP (15th) and allowed 2.72 GA/GP (seventh-fewest), but finished 29 goals below expected. Net Rating shows a two-goal difference, favoring Tampa’s finishing.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 SV%) outshines Sergei Bobrovsky (2.44 GAA, .906 SV%), with a .927 save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off. Florida’s injury woes—Tkachuk (groin), Ekblad (suspended), and Barkov (upper-body)—contrast with Tampa’s healthy roster and 20-6-5 run since January 30. Tampa’s power play matches Florida’s (9.56 xGF/60), but their top-10 penalty kill (80.3%) gives a slight edge. Tampa performs better when Florida takes penalties (20-9-3), which could disrupt the Panthers’ disciplined style.

Tampa’s offensive firepower, goaltending, and health make them the pick to win in six or seven games.