Why don’t the Average Joe bettors all quit their day jobs and live lavishly as millionaires? Because of small betting mistakes turning into huge wagering blunders.
Seasoned bettors know that there will always be ups and downs. The key is staying the course, remaining disciplined and steadily building your bankroll over the course of the long haul.
DO NOT MAKE THESE MISTAKES
1. Changing Unit Size:
One of the Sports Betting Mistakes to Avoid:
Bankroll management may be the most important discipline needed to be a successful sports bettor. One of the worst things bettors can do is change their unit size based on how well or how poorly they’re doing. When you’re hot, never double down and risk more because you’re overconfident. When you’re cold, never chase and try to win it all back in one fell swoop. Instead, we encourage most bettors to embrace a flat-betting approach (unless you have a true, quantifiable edge on some bets). Flat betting means betting the same amount on every game and risking only 1% to 5% of your bankroll per play. A good medium is 3% per play.
2. Overreacting to Recent Trends
If a team looked great the previous game, or if it’s riding a four-game winning streak, novice bettors will automatically want to bet on it, simply because it’s playing well. Meanwhile, if a team just got blown out by 20 points and is on a five-game losing streak, novice bettors will automatically fade them. Making informed betting choices is crucial to avoid these common betting mistakes. But that’s a mistake: Historically, teams coming off a win are overvalued. This is why we generally encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news.
3. Gambler's Fallacy
Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that if something happens more often than normal in a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future. For example, say you walk up to a roulette table and see that a black number has hit the last 10 spins. Your first thought might be to bet on red because it hasn’t happened in a while and it’s “due.” Falling for the gambler's fallacy can lead to poor betting decisions, as it causes bettors to make choices based on incorrect assumptions rather than rational thinking and thorough research.
4. Too Many Bets
Bettors love to bet. But betting just for the sake of having action is never a good thing. Betting 10 or 15 games per night is dangerous. You are taking on massive risk and one bad night can decimate your bankroll. Placing too many bets is one of the common betting mistakes. Instead, bettors should stay disciplined and limit their plays to their most confident games of the day. You can never lose a bet you don’t make.
5. Having Unrealistic Expectations
New bettors have lofty expectations when they first start betting. Everyone wants to gain prosperity quick overnight and win 70% of their bets or hit a 1,000-1 parlay, but that’s just not realistic. Having unrealistic expectations is one of the common sports betting mistakes. In order to break even when betting on spread sports (considering standard -110 juice), a bettor must win 52.38% of the time. Anything above 55% is considered to be highly appealing. Practice responsible betting.
7. Choosing Your Heart Over Your Head
More often than not, public bettors lose. They bet with gut instinct and are biased toward betting favorites, home teams and overs (because it’s more fun to watch a high-scoring game than root for blocked shots and missed field goals). They’re also biased toward historic franchises, teams with star players and whoever is getting the most media coverage. Emotional betting can lead to poor outcomes as bettors may chase losses and fail to analyze odds effectively. By betting against the public, contrarian bettors can capitalize on public bias and get artificially inflated numbers. As an added bonus, they place themselves on the side of the sportsbooks. As we all know, the house always wins.
8. Going Against the Sharps
In addition to going contrarian, you want to be on the same side as the professional bettors who win at a high rate and have a long track record of success. One of the easiest ways to spot sharp action is looking for Reverse Line Movement: when the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. In order to succeed long term, bettors need accurate and reliable data. If you don’t know where the public is, where the smart money is and why the line has moved, you’re automatically at a disadvantage. Following sharp action should be part of a solid betting strategy. By covering up the names of the teams, removing all bias, and betting based on line movement, percentages and value, bettors can make the smartest decisions possible and greatly increase their chances of winning.
9. Failing to Shop for the Best Line
Having access to bet at multiple sportsbooks gives you a better chance to find the best odds and have long-term success. Why? Every point matters. It’s obviously to your benefit to get that extra point and bet at the book posting +6. By having multiple accounts at several different books, you just got a full point for free. It may not seem like a big deal, but in the long run it can make a world of difference and turn potential losses into wins.
Good luck and make your bets smart. WAR