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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NBA, EPL and NFL Previews and Odds - 11/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Nov 01, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and the EPL.Week 8 in the National Football League concludes with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the New York Giants on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET. The Chiefs have lost four of their last six games after getting upset by the Titans on the road by a 27-3 score as a 4-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 35 passes for 206 yards with an interception and no touchdown passes in the loss. The loss dropped them to 3-4 on the season, with their four losses all against AFC rivals who may have seized a playoff tie-breaker against them if they end of with identical records fighting for playoff spots. Kansas City lost at Baltimore and home to the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo before their setback in Nashville against Tennessee.The Giants ended their two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Daniel Jones completed 23 of 33 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the victory. New York improved their record to 2-5 on the season. They ended a three-game losing streak to open the year with a 6-point win at New Orleans. Injuries beset the Giants with running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Kenny Golladay out for this game. Wide receivers Sterling Shephard and Kadarius Toney after being limited participants in practice.  Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 51.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Four games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte plays at home against Cleveland as a 4-point favorite. Indiana is at home against San Antonio as a 3.5-point favorite. Philadelphia plays at home against Portland as a 6-point favorite. Three more games in the NBA begin at 7:40 PM ET. Atlanta hosts Washington as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222. Boston is at home against Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite. New York plays at home against Toronto as a 7-point favorite with a total of 211.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Memphis hosts Denver as a 1.5-point favorite. Minnesota is at home against Orlando as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 216. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against Oklahoma City at 10:40 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with a total of 213. Three games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Tampa Bay is at home against Washington at 7:08 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Chicago hosts Ottawa at 8:08 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton plays at home against Seattle at 9:38 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League concludes with one match at 12:30 PM ET. Wolverhampton hosts Everton on the NBC Sports Network. BetRivers lists the Wolves at a +123 price to win on the three-way bet, with the Toffees priced at +235 and the draw paying out at +235. The total is at 2.5.

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The Impact of Weather on Football Over/Unders

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The role that rain and windy weather was put to the test in the last week with three games on prime time national television. A bomb cyclone in the Pacific Northwest impacted the Sunday night game in the NFL between Indianapolis and San Francisco. It also affected the Monday night game between New Orleans and Seattle. Rain and wind then played a role in the Sun Belt Conference on Thursday in the game between Troy and Coastal Carolina.Rain and winds in the 15 to 17 miles per hour range with occasional gusts were the conditions that the Colts and 49ers had to deal with in their game. Conditions like that impact the passing games and field goal attempts. Some bettors may have presumed the under was the preferred play yet the final score did not stay under the number despite the inclement weather. However, the weather played a major role in how that game played out. Only thirteen combined points were scored in the second and third quarters. Indianapolis gained only 295 yards on seventeen first downs and San Francisco managed just 280 yards on thirteen first downs. Those are offensive numbers that reliably lead to winning unders. The Colts got help from the 49ers committing two big pass interference plays on jump ball deep passes that led to two of their touchdowns. Both passing games were limited. Indianapolis passed for 147 yards and San Francisco passed for 169 yards. The Colts missed an extra point and later chose to go for a two-point conversion given the difficult wind conditions.Bad weather does not guarantee lower-scoring games but it can negatively impact some of the things that lead to higher-scoring games. There were seven fumbles between both teams. Turnovers are neutral in the long run in impacting over/unders since giving the ball up stalls drives and creates good scoring opportunities for the opposition.The rain and wind were less pronounced the next night in Seattle, yet that game was a low-scoring contest that the Saints won, 13-10. Sometimes games are destined to be low-scoring.  Weather is a factor when considering over/under plays, yet it should not replace the underlying factors in the game matchup between both teams. For Troy’s visit to Coastal Carolina later in the week, the oddsmakers opened the point spread in the -18.5 range yet the market has pushed the number down to the key number of -17 for the Chanticleers. Perhaps the weather reports persuaded bettors to take a Trojans team with a great defense? Rain and possible thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 10 miles per hour are in the forecast. Yet could Troy slow down an angry Coastal Carolina team coming off their first loss of the season? The Chanticleers averaged 46 points per game and 523 yards per game entering the contest. They averaged 8.5 yards per play. Their rushing attack was eleventh in the nation by averaging 234 yards per game which should continue to be effective in wet conditions. Slippery conditions can help the offense since it is the defensive players that have to react to the movements of the offensive players. Those words at the time proved prophetic as Coastal Carolina gained 510 total yards of offense in a 35-28 victory that went way over the 49.5 point total installed by the oddsmakers. The Chanticleers ran the ball 40 times for 216 yards. Yet the Coastal Carolina could not stop a Trojans team that appeared limited on offense at the time. Their second-leading wide receiver Reggie Todd was suspended for the game. Troy averaged only 20.3 points per game at the time. The rushing attack averaged 106 yards per game with a 3.6 yards per carry average. Yet the Trojans rush for 164 yards on 36 carries. Troy gained 389 yards overall.Of note was that both teams committed a number of turnovers. The Trojans threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball another two times, losing the ball once. The Chanticleers threw two interceptions. Of course, fumbles and interceptions take place even in the best of weather conditions. Bettors should be careful in putting too much stock in the weather having a disproportionate impact on a point spread or over/under. Bad weather can both help and hurt scoring opportunities. The sharpest bettors will take the weather report to then handicap how those conditions will impact the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams playing the game.Good luck - TDG.

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A Tale of Two Improving NBA Defenses/ Sacramento and New Orleans

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

Two of the worst defenses in the NBA last season belonged to the Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans. Both have seen immediate improvements this season, although both teams had nowhere to go but up. Yet both teams may offer some intriguing betting value with either unders or as a point spread underdog early in the NBA season. The Kings posted a historically bad defensive rating of 116.5 last season. They allowed their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots. which was also the worst mark in the NBA. Opponents scored 117.4 points per game against them, ranking 28th in the league. Rookie Davion Mitchell has made an immediate impact on the play of the Kings' defense already this season. The former Baylor star is establishing himself as a clampdown ball defender. He held Damian Lillard to 1 of 7 shooting, Donovan Mitchell to 2 of 6 shooting, and Jordan Clarkson to 2 of 6 shooting in his first two games in the league after earning rave reviews with his defense in the Summer League. Sacramento had limited their three most recent opponents to no better than 45.2% shooting before playing in New Orleans on Thursday. They held the Pelicans to 42.9% shooting in a 113-109 victory. They close out the month with an improved defensive rating of 110.2, good for 25th in the league. While not great, things are moving in the right direction. Opponents are scoring 111.8 points per game, an improvement of almost 6 ppg earning them a ranking of 22nd. Their opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.4% is 16th in the NBA.New Orleans was another team that had the directive to improve their play on defense this season. The Pelicans never took to head coach Stan Van Gundy. They allowed 114.9 points per game with opponents hitting 46.9% of their shots, ranking 24th and 19th in the league. Their defensive rating of 113.3 was 23rd. Management brought in Willie Green after his successful stint as an assistant coach with Phoenix, and he has made an instant impact on the team’s play on defense. New Orleans may have lost to Atlanta on Wednesday (10/28) 102-99, yet the play of the defense was quite good as they held the Hawks to 41.7% shooting. The Pelicans had held their last three opponents to 98.7 points per game on 39% shooting with none of those three teams topping 102 points. New Orleans' defense faltered against the Kings who made 50% of their shots against them. Yet their defensive numbers to end the month show improvement from last year. While their defensive rating ranks 26th, it has improved to 110.2. Opponents are making 45.9% of their shots, 22nd in the NBA. They are allowing 110.0 points per game, 20th in the league, in an improvement of almost 4 points per game.These trends may not hold, although the additions of Mitchell and Green suggest that they just might. There may be more valuable opportunities with these teams in November before the market catches up. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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25:16 - The Most Important Number to Understanding Seattle after Russell Wilson's Injury

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

When Russell Wilson suffered a finger injury in early October that would keep him out one to two months, many observers considered it the last straw for the Seahawks this season. While I expected the Seattle offense to be less explosive, I wrote at the time that the circumstances presented them an opportunity to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. I thought the key consideration was this: the Seahawks’ offense was on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game in the first five games Wilson started. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game was simply wearing them out. The “Let Russ Cook” mantra can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. I expected the Seahawks to run the ball more behind running back Alex Collins and slow the game down to help their beleaguered defense.The formula almost worked in a 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh. Seattle held the Steelers to just 335 yards. If not for a Geno Smith fumble from a vicious hit from T.J. Watt in overtime, then perhaps the Seahawks find a way to win that game. Seattle was then competitive the next week in a 13-10 loss at home to the New Orleans Saints (a team that then beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers the next week). The Seahawks held the Saints to just 304 yards. If not for two missed field goals by Jason Myers, Seattle might have won that game as well.Yet the usual suspect critics remained dismayed that the Seahawks did not blow out both teams even with Geno Smith under center. There is never a failing that would have simply been fixed by throwing the football more — the laziest of all the lazy Monday Morning Quarterbacking. If only there was a period in the Monday Night Football game when offensive coordinator Pete Carroll finally let Geno cook (there was: the disastrous final drive). “The Analytics are clear that getting to 3rd-and-1 is bad!” “Even worse is having the ball with the chance to win the game in the final possession!” I paraphrase what I read from blue check football expert on the twitter machine.As if the Analytics are quite clear in that (a) passing the football has no relationship to QB injuries (“mere coincidence”) and (b) the numbers do not reveal who the backup to Geno Smith is (Jacob Eason). “Let Jacob Cook, because interceptions are statistical anomalies!” I mock, therefore I am. The Pete Carroll Derangement Syndrome suffered by so many NFL media (who freelance as Seahawks fans) is a tell. Nine straight winning seasons lead the NFL right now, despite Seattle being run by that “idiot”! "That just shows you how good Saint Russell Wilson is!"More mocking: “Everyone knows that if only (fill in the blank for the latest hotshot OC, a former Matt Nagy type) was running Seattle offense on Monday, the Hawks upset the Saints by double-digits (after upsetting the Steelers on the road the week before), rather than just covering both times.”It's not that Carroll should be immune to criticism (issue #1: his failures on the offensive line). It is that (a) what he has accomplished in Seattle is objectively pretty, pretty, pretty good, yet (b) because it is a defensive philosophy that values running the football and an ancient concept called Time of Possession, the geniuses are miles away from simply engaging his (up to now) successful argument. By the way, the market said getting to coin flips with Geno was a win! It certainly was for those of us with Seattle tickets.What if the Seahawks without Carroll simply devolve into the Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford? Detroit was passing the ball over 60% of the time during that span -- a nice opportunity to test Let Matthew Cook aspirations of the critics. (I know, Detroit was still messing up 40%, unless it is the last play of the Super Bowl …).In cashing Seattle tickets the last two weeks, one of my arguments was that the removal of the pressure to Let Russ Cook would mean more rushing attempts and more Time of Possession. They added 2+ minutes of TOP in both games (but were still underwater with their defense on the field more than their offense). Still, Seattle played two of their best three defensive games of the season in the last two weeks. Their defense had been averaging 35:47 minutes per game on the field under Let Russ Cook (before the Steelers game). I know, Irrelevant!In Smith’s third start, Seattle dominated Jacksonville by a 31-7 score on Halloween. The defense held the Jaguars to 309 total yards. The defense was on the field more than the offense yet once again, but the 28:31 minutes were a day in the park compared to what they had been averaging in the Let Russ Cook days earlier this season. It bears repeating that many defensive coaches believe their players only have so many plays in them in a game before they fatigue and their effectiveness begins to significantly wane. Smith completed 20 of the 24 passes he attempted. Seattle ran the ball 25 times giving an almost 50-50 balance of rushing and passing. When Wilson returns to the field, many observers will notice the improved play of the defense he will be inheriting. Will they spot the connection?Best of luck — Frank.

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Gerrit Cole's Second Half Slide

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The New York Yankees were counting on Gerrit Cole to be their ace in the American League Wildcard Playoff game against their arch-rivals in the Boston Red Sox. But I was worried about the second-half decline of the star right-handed starting pitcher. He was looking to rebound from a subpar effort where he allows five runs in six innings at Toronto in his final regular-season start. For the regular season, the right-hander had a 16-8 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP — but he had been saddled with a 5.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts. That continues a disturbing trend for the Yankees’ ace who, after a great start to the season, has a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 since the All-Star Break. Were his 181 1/3 innings this season after a pandemic-shortened campaign last year produced fatigue late in the season? Were the after-effects from his bout with COVID impacting his performances? Did his recent hamstring injury hold him back? Perhaps the league’s crackdown on foreign substances has thrown off his elite stuff despite his spin rates creeping back up to his early-season levels? I don’t know, but I was skeptical that he could simply flip the switch in the playoffs after posting a 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts despite the Yankees playing for their playoff lives the last few weeks.Cole only recorded outs with six of the twelve batters he faced in what was a 6-2 loss to the Red Sox that ended their season. He gave up four hits and walked two batters in his two innings of work. He gave up two gopher balls. The home run he threw to Xander Bogaerts was just the third home run he had even allowed to a right-handed batter on change up — and for the first time in four years. Cole did not make any excuses after the setback in taking responsibility for the disappointing outing. If he did have lingering issues from COVID and/or his hamstring, he should be good to go for spring training. But the crackdown on foreign substances is worthy of continued scrutiny. When comparing the 150 four-seam fastballs he through before June 3rd with the 300 he through after that date, he experienced the 16th largest drop in spin rate of all major league pitchers last season. While Cole was still a very good starting pitcher, the loss of that final edge may preclude from the elite status he enjoyed in the previous two seasons — the very reason the Yankees signed him to a long-term contract.Best of luck — Frank.

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NBA: Early Upgrades and Downgrades

by Power Sports

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The 2021-22 NBA Season is not even two weeks old, but already there are a handful of teams where I’ve made a significant upgrade or downgrade to my own personal power rankings. That’s what I want to go over today. Upgrades Miami - The Heat figured to be a top six team in the East with the addition of Kyle Lowry. But so far they’ve played as well as anybody. Their record is 5-1 and they are outscoring opponents by a league-best 17 points per game. Ranking first in the league in defensive efficiency is always key and that’s where the Heat are right now.Golden State - Again, the Warriors are a team I’d tabbed to finish in the top six in the West. But they have been better than advertised. They are 5-1 and playing like one of the best teams in the league. They have yet to lose in regulation.New York & Chicago - I’m putting these teams together because coming into the year I thought they’d finish pretty close. One of them is probably going to get a top six spot in the East. Both have started 5-1. The Bulls did just lose Patrick Williams to a season-ending injury. The Knicks won’t be #1 in 3PT% defense again (like they were last season). So beware just a little bit. At the same time, note the Knicks are #2 in offensive efficiency and the Bulls are #4 in defensive efficiency.DowngradesLA Lakers - The Lakers have been a below average team in their first six games. That’s a downgrade from what was expected to be a top two team (along with Utah) in the Western Conference. Do I still expect LeBron and company in the top six? Of course. But this is not a deep team. Boston - The way things are looking early on, the best the Celtics might be able to do is the play-in round. They’ve definitely been below average. Three of their games have gone to overtime and they’ve twice been a loser in double overtime games. Like the Lakers, Boston ranks in the bottom third in defensive efficiency.Milwaukee - Well, when you come into the season ranked #1 in the power rankings, the best you can hope for is to maintain that ranking. The Bucks have dropped due to getting outscored by roughly five points per 100 possessions. They are even lower than the Celtics and Lakers when it comes to defensive efficiency - ranking 25th. While things are skewed due to an awful showing vs. Miami, the Bucks just lost to the T’wolves and Spurs. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB, NCAAF, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/31/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NFL, MLB, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and the EPL.Week 8 in the National Football League continues with 13 games. Eight games kick off the card at 1 PM ET. Indianapolis hosts Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 50.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Cincinnati visits the New York Jets as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 42.5. Philadelphia travels to Detroit as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 48. Atlanta plays at home against Carolina as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 46. San Francisco is at Chicago as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 40. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42.5. The Los Angeles Rams are at Houston as a 16.5-point road favorite with a total of 46.5. Buffalo plays at home against Miami as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 49. Four games take place in the second-afternoon window. Two games begin at 4:05 PM ET. Seattle is at home against Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite with a total of 44. The Los Angeles Chargers host New England as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. Two games start at 4:25 PM ET. Tampa Bay visits New Orleans as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5. Denver is at home against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Minnesota hosts Dallas on NBC for Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. The Vikings are a 3-point favorite with a total of 51. The World Series in Major League Baseball continues with Game 5 of the best-of-seven on Fox with the first pitch at 8:15 PM ET. The Atlanta Braves took a 3-1 lead with their 3-2 victory over the Houston Astros last night. The Astros will start Framber Valdez against a Braves starting pitcher yet to be named. Houston is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Dallas plays at home against Sacramento at 3:40 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite. Two games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts Portland in a pick ‘em match-up. Utah visits Milwaukee as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 223. Brooklyn is at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET as a -12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 215. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Houston at 10:40 PM ET as a 12-point favorite with a total of 223.5. The National Hockey League has five games on the slate. Carolina is at home against Arizona at 1:08 PM ET as a -320 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games drop the puck at 4:08 PM ET. Montreal travels to Anaheim as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at home as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. New Jersey plays at home against Columbus at 5:08 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6. Seattle hosts the New York Rangers at 9:08 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League continues with two matches on the NBC Sports Network. Leeds United visits Norwich City on the NBC Sports Network at 10 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. West Ham United travels to Aston Villa at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, NBA, EPL, CFL and NHL Previews and Odds - 10/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Oct 30, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in MLB, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CFL, and the EPL.The World Series in Major League Baseball continues with Game 4 on Fox with the first pitch at 8:09 PM ET. Atlanta took a 2-1 lead in the series with a 2-0 victory against Houston last night. The Astros pitch Zach Greinke as their starting pitcher against an opening starting pitcher for the Braves yet to be named. Atlanta is a -115 money line favorite, with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Week 9 of the college football season concludes with 49 games between FBS opponents. Seventeen games begin in the noon ET to 3 PM ET window. Six games kickoff on national television at noon ET. Michigan visits Michigan State on Fox as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 50.5. Baylor hosts Texas on ABC as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 61.5. Wisconsin plays at home against Iowa on ESPN as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 37. Cincinnati travels to Tulane on ESPN2 as a 27.5-point road favorite with a total of 61.5. Louisiana-Lafayette is at home against Texas State on ESPNU as a 21-point favorite with an over/under of 58. Buffalo plays at home against Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5. Arizona State hosts Washington State on FS1 at 3 PM ET as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53. Eighteen games start in the 3:30 ET to 6 PM ET window. Seven games are on national television kicking off at 3:30 PM ET. Georgia plays Florida at TIAA Bank Stadium in Jacksonville on ABC as a 14-point favorite with a total of 51. Oklahoma hosts Texas Tech on ABC as a 19-point favorite with an over/under of 66.5. Oregon is at home against Colorado on Fox as a 24.5-point favorite with a total of 50. Clemson plays at home against Florida State on ESPN as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 48. Nebraska hosts Purdue on ESPN2 as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5. Kansas State is at home against TCU on ESPNU as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 58.5. Louisiana Tech travels to Old Dominion on the CBS Sports Network as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 55. San Jose State plays at home against Wyoming on FS2 as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 40.5. Fourteen games conclude the NCAAF card beginning at 7 PM ET. Five games are on national television beginning at 7 PM ET. Auburn hosts Ole Miss on ESPN as a 3-point favorite with a total of 66.5. USC plays at home against Arizona on ESPNU as a 21.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Boise State visits Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 51.5. Houston hosts SMU on ESPN2 as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 61.5. Oklahoma State is at home against Kansas on FS1 as a 28.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. Two games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Notre Dame plays at home against North Carolina on NBC as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 62.5. Ohio State hosts Penn State on ABC as a 19.5-point favorite with a total of 61. Utah is at home against UCLA on ESPN at 10 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 60.5. BYU plays at home against Virginia on ESPN2 at 10:15 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 65. Stanford hosts Washington on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47. Fresno State travels to San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network at 10:30 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 44.5. Eleven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Washington is at home against Boston at 5:10 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 224. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. Detroit plays at home against Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 207. New York visits New Orleans as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 215. Two more games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Indiana hosts Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite. Philadelphia is at home against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite. Three NBA games kick off at 8:10 PM ET. Utah travels to Chicago as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 217.5. Memphis plays at home against Miami as a 2-point favorite. Milwaukee hosts San Antonio as a 9.5-point favorite. Golden State is at home against Oklahoma State at 8:40 PM ET as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 221. Minnesota plays at home against Denver at 9:10 PM ET as a 3-point favorite. Phoenix hosts Cleveland at 10:10 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with a total of 216. Ten games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The New Islanders visit Nashville at 1:38 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against Montreal at 4:08 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Four games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. San Jose is at home against Winnipeg as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Boston hosts Florida as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6. Toronto plays at home against Detroit as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Pittsburgh hosts New Jersey as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. St. Louis is at home against Chicago at 8:08 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Colorado plays at home against Minnesota at 9:08 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two games conclude the card at 10:08 PM ET. Calgary is at home against Philadelphia as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton plays at Vancouver as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games conclude Week 13 in the Canadian Football League on ESPN+. Toronto plays at home against British Columbia at 4 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 46. Montreal is at home against Saskatchewan at 7 PM ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 46. Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Leicester City hosts Arsenal on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Five games start at 10 AM ET. Burnley plays at home against Brentford on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool hosts Brighton and Hove Albion on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City is at home against Crystal Palace on the NBC Sports Network as a -2 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Chelsea travels to Newcastle United on Peacock as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Southampton visits Watford on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester United plays at Tottenham on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5.

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November Paths for Five NFC Contenders

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Oct 29, 2021

Week 8 of the NFL season started with a huge Thursday night clash in the NFC as the Packers narrowly held off the Cardinals in a battle of top NFC contenders. Five teams have created separation in the NFC as top conference title threats, here is a look at the November paths for those teams as the potential playoff bracket is starting to come into form.  These teams are listed in the current standings as of 10/29/2021 Green Bay Packers (+450 to win the NFC as of 10/29/21) Green Bay is 7-1 and on top of the NFC standings after knocking off the league’s final undefeated team on Thursday night in Week 8. The Packers also earned the head-to-head tiebreaker with Arizona in pursuit of earning the top seed in the NFC for a second consecutive season. Winning while short-handed was a great result for Green Bay, now winners of seven straight games since the opening loss to the Saints but Green Bay has the weakest scoring differential of the top threats in the NFC and will have a difficult November path.  The Packers will have an extended turnaround ahead of Week 9 after the early game in Week 8, but they will head to Kansas City next for a difficult game, even if the Chiefs have been vulnerable this season. Green Bay catches a break in Week 10 as a potentially difficult home game with Seattle seems likely to be without Russell Wilson, although some are suggesting his timetable could be moved up. A huge division game at Minnesota is ahead in Week 11 while on Thanksgiving weekend the Packers host the Rams before a Week 13 bye week. A 2-2 November might be considered an acceptable result for Green Bay with some of the season’s most difficult games ahead in the next few weeks.  Arizona Cardinals (+550 to win the NFC as of 10/29/21) Falling from the ranks of the unbeaten was a tough result for Arizona last week, particularly given the golden opportunity to escape with a win that was there in the final minute last week vs. Green Bay. Given how difficult the NFC West was projected to be this season, any Cardinals fan must still be thrilled that the team is 7-1, a year after finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs entirely last season. The Cardinals have the top scoring differential in the NFC and while there are wins over Houston and Jacksonville included to boost the numbers, Arizona has road wins over Tennessee, the LA Rams, and Cleveland as this is not an empty 7-1 resume.  The Cardinals have two difficult division games remaining in November but playing at San Francisco and at Seattle no longer looks quite as difficult as expected. Russell Wilson could be back for the Seahawks in time for that Week 11 game but with a home game with Carolina in Week 10, the next three weeks are a very manageable path for the Cardinals as moving back ahead of the Packers is certainly a possible outcome by the end of the month. Getting a long layoff ahead of the Week 9 game with San Francisco could be greatly beneficial given the lingering injury issues for a few key players but it is clear that Arizona isn’t going anywhere as a serious NFC threat even after taking its first loss.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+250 to win the NFC as of 10/29/21) The Buccaneers haven’t necessarily looked like the defending Super Bowl champions in a 6-1 start but a big reason the Buccaneers were the prohibitive favorite in the NFC while having a great chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions is a favorable schedule. Tampa Bay’s best win so far this season was the narrow opening week win over Dallas as they lost their big road test to the Rams. Tampa Bay won’t play the other three NFC contenders on this list and the most formidable remaining game is a December home game with Buffalo as the path to the best record in the NFC remains clear for Tampa Bay. October closes with a big division game in New Orleans and a win in that game would give Tampa Bay a significant cushion in the division race. Tampa Bay has a bye week in Week 9 before a playoff rematch at Washington in Week 10. The Buccaneers will complete its series with the four NFC East teams hosting the Giants in Week 11 before a potentially dangerous game in Indianapolis in Week 12. With only three November games, the bye week may be the most important factor for Tampa Bay this month and it is hard to see this group having more than two losses heading into December.  Los Angeles Rams (+400 to win the NFC as of 10/29/21) The Rams have started 6-1 but they are behind in the NFC West race by virtue of the head-to-head loss hosting Arizona in Week 4. Los Angeles does have a big potential tiebreaker under its belt from beating Tampa Bay in Week 3 and five of six wins for Los Angeles have been against the NFC as Los Angeles will be facing AFC teams in three of the next five games. The Week 14 game at Arizona will loom large in the division race and the chances for the Rams to be the top NFC seed are hurt by a late season schedule closing with Minnesota, Baltimore, and San Francisco, all teams that seem likely to need late season wins in the wild card race.  In the short term the Rams have a serious shot to move up to being the #1 seed in the NFC in November as they close the month at Green Bay after a bye week for a great opportunity to earn a key tiebreaker. After playing as a big favorite in Houston this week, a big AFC test is ahead Sunday night in Week 9 with the Titans before a Monday night game in San Francisco in Week 10 as the Rams will be in the spotlight in November with a chance to move up in the NFC pecking order.  Dallas Cowboys (+600 to win the NFC as of 10/29/21) As strange as it sounds Dallas may be the overlooked and undervalued team in the NFC race. There is not much of a case for Dallas being the most complete nor the best team in the NFC, and the current Dak Prescott injury situation is a big shadow over that prospect. The NFC East will provide Dallas with a better opportunity than the rest of the conference however. The only noteworthy wins for Dallas so far are narrow road escapes vs. the Chargers and Patriots but Dallas has an incredibly favorable remaining schedule and still has a realistic chance to end up with the top record in the NFC. Dallas was off in Week 7 and Prescott’s status remains up in the air for Week 8 at Minnesota in one of the most difficult remaining games of the season. If Dallas can win that game, they have home dates with Denver and Atlanta the next two weeks before a big Week 11 game in Kansas City that should be a highly anticipated game. Dallas closes November with the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day and while four of the final six games will be road games for the Cowboys, four of those final six games will be division games. Dallas has a substantial lead in the NFC East and may not face much pressure to go for the #1 seed in the NFC, but at full strength the Cowboys are only likely to be an underdog in two of three remaining games from November to January.  Last season there was much talk of how much more valuable being the #1 seed was in the NFL playoff field with the switch to a 14-team field and only two teams getting playoff bye weeks, but the Super Bowl champion wound up being the #5 seed in the NFC team as a wild card that won three road games before catching a big advantage with a home Super Bowl. The #1 seed did win the NFC in 2019 and 2017 with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl as the #1 seed in 2017 as the last NFC team to do so and over time it should play out to be a significant advantage in the new playoff format. The standings are likely to shuffle significantly in the upcoming weeks and while Green Bay has the current momentum as the top spot, they appear to have the most difficult path in the coming weeks to hold as they try to repeat as the #1 seed in the NFC again this season. 

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College Football's Sweet Snowman System

by Tom Stryker

Friday, Oct 29, 2021

When I was on the links, I never really cared for the dreaded snowman.  For those of you that didn’t play golf, a snowman is a slang term players use for a score of eight on any individual hole.  Let me tell you, when I first started hacking away, the snowman and I were really good friends. Thankfully, game eight in the college football season has been much kinder in a sports wagering way.  With the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of late season technical sets that have performed very well.  Here is a unique game eight situation that has been extremely profitable.  Take a look: Since 1980, PLAY ON any college football game eight team that holds a 4-3 SU record provided they enter off two or more straight up wins and are currently lined up against a conference foe that owns a team won/loss percentage of .500 or better.  41-Year ATS Record = 66-30 ATS for 68.7 percent  This Week’s Plays = TROY STATE, WISCONSIN, and LA-MONROE (ULM)  There are a couple of additional parameters that can be added to this general system that really make it pop.  If our “play on” side is running with revenge and priced as a favorite or an underdog of +14 or less, this Sweet Snowman System tightens up to a spectacular 28-6 ATS for 82.3 percent.  Last year, the Badgers (-1) visited Iowa City and dropped a 28-7 decision to the Hawkeyes.  This season, UW is a -3.5-point home favorite over Iowa, and it fits this exclusive situation perfectly.  (Troy State is priced at +19 and ULM is at grabbing +27.5 so they don’t apply.) The Badgers will use the strength of this Sweet Snowman System and “jump around” to a huge win early on Saturday afternoon.  Good luck with Wisky this week!

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NFL Stock Rising and Falling: Week 8

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Oct 29, 2021

It's hard to believe but we're nearing the halfway point of the 2021 NFL season. With only 13 teams having posted above .500 records to date the stakes are especially high entering Sunday's action. Here's a quick look around the league at two teams that are on the rise and two that are on their way down in this week's edition of 'Stock Rising and Falling'.Stock risingAtlanta FalconsI'm hesitant to include the Falcons in this category as their last two wins have come against the likes of the Jets and Dolphins. However, the runway is clear for Atlanta to keep rolling as hosts the reeling Panthers this week. We've finally seen veteran QB Matt Ryan find some chemistry with much-hyped rookie TE Kyle Pitts and it should only be a matter of time before WR Calvin Ridley rounds back into form. Ridley has found it tough sledding in the post-Julio Jones era but I would anticipate Ryan force-feeding him a little more in the weeks to come. Defensively, the Falcons haven't had to be great but the good news is, they won't face a truly elite offensive opponent until Week 10 when they travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys.Indianapolis ColtsThe Colts got off to a slow start this season but that was to be expected as they faced a brutal early schedule that included games against the (then healthy) Seahawks, Rams, Titans and Ravens in the first four weeks. They've turned the corner since, posting consecutive wins over the Texans and 49ers and now comes a true statement game against the division-rival Titans on Sunday in Indy. I've never been all that high on QB Carson Wentz but there's no denying he's put the team on his back lately, throwing eight touchdown passes while running for another without tossing a single interception in the last four games. He gets another mouth-watering matchup against the Titans defense this week and I would anticipate head coach Frank Reich coming up with an aggressive offensive gameplan to take advantage of that unit being on a bit of a heater.Stock fallingMiami DolphinsI question what type of spot the Dolphins are in mentally after last Sunday's demoralizing last-second loss against the Falcons. Credit Miami for battling back and taking the lead late in that game, but it couldn't make it stand up as its defense once again dropped the proverbial ball. Of course, defense was supposed to be the strength of the Fins but that simply hasn't been the case. Now Miami faces the unenviable task of traveling to Buffalo to face a Bills squad that will be in a foul mood following a Monday night loss against the Titans (which was followed by a bye week). The good news is that relief should come in the form of five of Miami's next six games coming against the Texans, Jets (twice), Panthers and Giants. San Francisco 49ersIs it another lost season in Santa Clara? It certainly appears headed that way after the 49ers fell in a rain-soaked primetime game against the Colts last Sunday. Rookie QB Trey Lance is still banged-up while Jimmy Garroppolo looks like anything but the answer under center. While injuries have certainly played a role in the 49ers struggles this season, there are other issues lying beneath the surface. We've seen the wide receiving corps fail to make plays at key points while the running backs just haven't been afforded nearly the time and space we've seen them enjoy in recent years. San Fran's defense is healthier than it was during a disastrous 2020 campaign but it hasn't made much of a different as opponents are routinely marching up and down the field on them. Maybe the Niners right the ship in a favored role in Chicago this Sunday but sitting at 2-4 the path to the playoffs is anything but clear. 

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The Worst College Football Teams in the Country

by Oskeim Sports

Friday, Oct 29, 2021

Each week, college football fans, players, coaches, and more sift through an endless supply of information about the sport with most of it geared toward the best. The best coach. The best quarterback. The best player. The best team.  What about the worst team? Not that you want to be in that category, but if there is a best there has to be a worst, right? So, which team or teams would fit into the category of worst?   The U’s If your college team is identified with a “U” at the beginning of its name, you might have one of the worst college football teams in the country. UNLV, emphasis on the “L,” is 0-7. The Rebels looked like they might grab their first win last week but allowed San Jose State to block a field goal and then drive the length of the field for the game-winning touchdown in the game’s final minutes.  UConn (1-8) and UMass (1-6) actually played each other in this year. UMass picked up its only win of the 2021 season, a 27-13 defeat of the Huskies whose only win came against FCS Yale and even that wasn’t easy. UConn held off a late Yale rally after leading 21-0 to win 21-15.   19 Straight It’s hard to lose 19 straight games as an FBS program. Arizona has done it pretty easily though the Wildcats did put up a fight against a two-win Washington last week. Arizona, which is 0-6 thus far this season, led 16-7 in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats allowed two fourth-quarter Washington touchdowns and lost 21-16. The Wildcats will go after their first win in 20 games this weekend when they play at USC.   This Is Kansas, Dorothy Ahh…Kansas. Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk. When is it basketball season? The Jayhawks are currently 1-6 with new head coach Lance Leipold attempting to build something. After a season-opening win over that juggernaut known as FCS South Dakota, the Jayhawks have lost games by scores like 49-22, 45-7, and 59-7.   The Jayhawks can’t score – 17.7 points per game ranks 117th in the nation – and they can’t stop anybody. Kansas gives up 46.8 points a game. That ranks 129th. Only Arkansas State (47.8 ppg) is worse.   Florida International There’s an FBS program named Florida International? Wow! Who knew. Apparently, no one really cares since Florida International University, aka FIU, is 1-6 this season. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the country giving up 40.8 points per game. That ranks 125th out of 130 FBS programs. Not good.  The Panthers' only win this season came against FCS LIU, aka Long Island University, a program that is in its second year of play at the FCS level. Yikes!   Green Wave Tulane is one of the few FBS programs whose nickname does not end with the letter “s.” The Green Wave are also one of the worst college football programs in the country. Tulane is currently 1-7 and soon to be 1-8 as the Green Wave face No. 2 Cincinnati this weekend.   In their last three games, the Green Wave defense has waved bye-bye to numerous touchdown scorers. Tulane has given up 147 points in those three games. The Wave is right in there with UMass and Kansas ranking 128th in scoring defense allowing opponents 46 points per game. That won’t win many games.    Blue Mexico State Coaches and players are sad at New Mexico State since they are just 1-6 this season. That’s nothing new. The only win this season came against FCS South Carolina State. The Aggies lost to Hawaii 48-34 last week and that was their second loss of the season to the Rainbow Warriors this season. New Mexico State is so bad they have to fill their schedule with teams they have already lost to.  

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