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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/19/2025

The Monday sports card features MLB and EPL action. Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh with the Reds tapping Nick Lodolo to pitch against the  Pirates’ Mitch Keller. The Reds have won five games in a row after their 3-1 win at home against Cleveland on Sunday. The Pirates are on a four-game losing streak after a 1-0 loss at Philadelphia yesterday. Cincinnati is a -130 money-line road favorite with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings).Chicago plays in Miami with Ben Brown taking the ball for the Cubs to take on Edward Cabrera for the Marlins. The Cubs are on a four-game winning streak after their 6-2 victory against the Chicago White Sox yesterday. The Marlins won for the fourth time in their last five games in a 5-1 win against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Chicago is a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.The New York Mets are in Boston to play the Red Sox at  6:45 p.m. ET. The Mets turn to Kodai Senga to battle the Red Sox’s Hunter Dobbins. New York has lost three of their last four games after an 8-2 loss on the road against the New York Yankees on Sunday. Boston has lost six of their last seven games after a 10-4 loss against Atlanta yesterday. The Mets are a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.The Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros at 7:05 p.m. ET. Ryan Pepiot takes the hill for the Rays to face Colton Gordon for the Astros. Tampa Bay has lost three of their last four games after their loss at Miami yesterday. Houston has won three of their last four games after a 4-3 victory on the road against Texas on Sunday. The Rays are a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. Seattle visits Chicago with the Mariners sending out Luis Castillo to challenge the White Sox’s Davis Martin. The Mariners are on a four-game winning streak after their 6-1 win at San Diego on Sunday. The White Sox have lost five games in a row after their loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Seattle is a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8.Milwaukee plays at home against Baltimore with Quinn Priester getting the call for the Brewers to pitch against Dean Kremer for the Orioles. The Brewers have won two games in a row after a 5-2 victory against Minnesota yesterday. The Orioles have lost seven games in a row after a 10-4 loss at home against Washington on Sunday. Milwaukee is a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota is home against Cleveland with the Twins tapping Bailey Ober facing the Guardians’ Logan Allen. The Twins have lost two games in a row after losing to the Brewers yesterday. The Guardians are on a five-game losing streak after losing to the Reds on Sunday. Minnesota is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5.  The Detroit Tigers play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. The Tigers won for the sixth time in their last seven games with a 3-2 win at Toronto on Sunday. The Cardinals have lost two games in a row after a 2-1 loss at Kansas City yesterday. Detroit has yet to announce their starting pitcher who will go against St. Louis’ Sonny Gray. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Colorado to take on the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET. Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for the Phillies to face Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Philadelphia has won four games in a row after bearing the Phillies yesterday. Colorado has lost six of their last seven games after a 2-1 loss at Arizona on Sunday. The Phillies are a -270 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. Two MLB games begin at 9:45 p.m. ET. San Francisco hosts Kansas City with the Giants sending out Robbie Ray to take on the Royals’ Kris Bubic. The Giants have won four games in a row after a 3-2 win on the road against the Athletics on Sunday. The Royals have won two games in a row after their victory against the Cardinals yesterday. San Francisco is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.The Athletics play at home against Los Angeles with J.T. Ginn getting the ball for the Athletics to face Jose Soriano for the Angels. The Athletics lost for the sixth straight time in their setback against the Giants yesterday. The Angels have won four games in a row after a 6-4 victory on the road in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday. The Athletics are a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers turn to Landon Knack to battle the Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt. Los Angeles has lost four games in a row after their loss to the Angeles on Sunday. Arizona has won four of their last five games after their win against the Rockies yesterday. The Dodgers are a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. Matchweek 37 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Liverpool travels to Brighton and Hove Albion on the USA Network at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

Say Goodbye to Auto-Betting Unders in NBA Game 7s

The days of Game 7s in the NBA playoffs being almost automatic under bets are probably gone for good. Oddsmakers have consistently adjusted to the past Game 7 under trends and it was inevitable that this “tax” would eventually be too costly. The league continues to feature offense over defense in philosophy, the rules, and the officiating. Going into the Round 1 seventh game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets, the previous sixteen Game 7s in the first round of the NBA playoffs have eleven of those games finish over the total. We concluded that the over was the correct play for that Game 7 earlier this month. Granted, the pace of play in this series had been slow, and it was getting more methodical. The 91.25 adjusted possessions per game in this series had been the second slowest in the playoffs, and Game 6 had 88.5 adjusted possessions. Yet did that justify the oddsmakers initially installing the over/under at 204.5 for this game? The market bet this number up a bit into the 207 range. However, the offensive attacks had the edge for both teams as this series progressed. The Clippers made 52.4% of their shots in Game 5 before shooting 50% in their 111-105 victory on Thursday. The Nuggets made 55.8% of their shots in the Game 5 win at home before shooting 52.4% in their Game 6 loss. The oddsmakers installed the over/under for Game 1 of this series at 224.5. The lowest the total dropped in this series was at 209.5 in Game 5. After 246 combined points were scored in that game, the oddsmakers pushed the over/under for Game 6 to 213, yet that game finished over that number with 216 combined points scored. The Game 7 under tax looked too stiff.Denver had the advantage of playing at home for this Game 7, and they have generally played higher-scoring games on their home court. The Nuggets had played twenty-seven of their forty-four games at home over the number this season. The Clippers had a 48.2% field goal percentage for the year, and Denver has played seventeen of their last twenty-six games at home against opponents who shoot 46% or better from the field. Denver had played thirteen of their last eighteen games over the total after losing on the road in their previous game. They had played eight of their last eleven games over the number when playing with revenge from a previous loss to their opponent. It just be the fourth game all season that Los Angeles is playing on the road in a game when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 200 to 209.5. All three of those previous games finished over the total, and we expected that trend to continue despite it being a Game 7. Denver’s scoring attack did show up for that game as they made 52.2% of their shots and dominated the game in a 120-101 victory. Those 221 combined points easily surpassed the 207 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers. The next day, the Golden State/Houston Game 7 finished well below the 206 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers in the Warriors’ 103-89 victory. The over trends in Round 1 Game 7s are far from being a new rule to follow. It is also noteworthy that Round 2 Game 7s unders are just 9-6 after Oklahoma City’s 125-93 victory against Denver. Unfortunately, we were on the under in that game. The sample size is small, yet the recent trends fall in line with our observations about Round 1 Game 7 unders. The Thunder got to 125 points in large part by forcing 22 turnovers. More teams are likely to adopt the pressure defense that has worked so well for them this season, and that will be yet another dynamic that will put pressure against lower-scoring games. Pressure tends to create quicker scoring opportunities for both teams either from the forced turnover or breaking the press. Officials tend to call more fouls when teams are pressuring the basketball, and scoring when the clock is stopped does no favors for under bets.The NBA Game 7 under trends were a great ride for a long time, yet nothing lasts forever. Successful handicappers know when it is time to adapt. Good luck - TDG.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/18/2025

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with one game on ABC. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinal series at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Thunder are an 8-point favorite with the total set at 213.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game on TNT/truTV/Max on its slate. The Florida Panthers travel to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Panthers are a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Houston Astros play in Texas against the Rangers on Roku at 1:05 p.m. ET. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves are in Boston to face the Red Sox as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Baltimore Orioles host the Washington Nationals as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Philadelphia to play the Phillies as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 1:37 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Miami against the Marlins as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Cincinnati Reds are home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs are home against the Chicago White Sox at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -305 money-line favorite. The San Francisco Giants host the Athletics at 4:05 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three more MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -360 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The San Diego Padres host the Seattle Mariners as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN features the New York Yankees playing at home against the New York Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Yankees are a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.Matchweek 37 in the English Premier League continues with five matches. Everton hosts Southampton on the USA Network at 7:00 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Nottingham Forest is at West Ham United on the USA Network at 9:15 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Two more EPL matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Brentford plays at home against Fulham as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Leicester City is home against Ipswich Town as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Arsenal hosts Newcastle United on the USA Network at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.  

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