NFL Draft Prop Wagers

 

TOTAL QB’s TAKEN IN THE FIRST ROUND – Over 4.5 (-250) @ DraftKings

 

High juice on this one but we’re willing to lay it.  With QB obviously being the most important position on the field, we always get teams that reach a bit at that position early.  We actually have 6 QB’s graded as potential Round 1 selections and we expect at least 5 to come off the board if not all 6.  Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix and Bo Nix are all strong possibilities.  There is a decent chance that the first 3 or even 4 players taken in this draft will be QB’s which gets us very close with the majority of the first round still remaining.  We’ve identified at least 7 teams that need QB’s – Chicago, Washington, New England, NY Giants, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Denver.  Those 7 teams currently have 9 first round picks with Chicago and Minnesota each having 2.  This isn’t a deep QB class with the 6 we stated being head and shoulders above the rest and not getting a QB early could cost a number of teams with few options in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.  That leads us to believe it’s very possible all 6 are drafted in round 1.  

 

 

LSU’s MALIK NABERS FIRST WR TAKEN +470 @ FanDuel

 

We’re hearing a number of GM’s actually like Nabers better than Marvin Harrison Jr who is slated by most to get ahead of him.  Nabers (and Harrison) both opted out of the NFL Combine but took part in their pro days on campus.  Nabers ran a 4.35 forty yard dash (elite speed), had a 42 inch vertical jump, and has great size at 6’0 and 200 pounds.  He is right at the top of the WR list in regards to measurables.  He led the nation at 3.51 yards per route run and had the 2nd most explosive catches (15+ yards) in college football last year.  On deeper routes, Nabers led the FBS in 20+ yard plays and 30+ yard plays last season.  He’s a better YAC guy (yards after catch) than Harrison and is more of a gamebreaker at the WR position.  Comparing him to former LSU WR’s, a few GM’s said Nabers is a cross between Odell Beckham Jr and Justin Jefferson.  While Harrison is the heavy favorite to be the first WR taken, all it takes is one GM to value Nabers higher and at +470 it’s worth a look.

 

 

GEORGIA TE BROCK BOWERS UNDER 12.5 DRAFT POSITION -200 @ DraftKings

 

We expect Bowers to be taken in the top 12 picks in this draft and will sprinkle a little on him being a top 10 pick at +120 as well.  There are a number of teams in the top 12 that are targeting a TE in this draft and while they could hold off for someone down the line, Bowers is EASILY the best at that position and a potential game changer.  He led UGA in receiving yards in all 3 of his season despite a number of high level WR’s also playing for the Bulldogs.  Bowers has a rare speed (4.5 forty yard dash) and athleticism (40 inch vertical jump) at the TE position and is a big play threat anytime he touches the ball.  He was often the best offensive player on the field facing a very tough SEC schedule.  In his 3 years he played in 5 college football playoff games and 2 SEC championship games and played at a high level in the most important games.  In those 7 championship/playoff level games, Bowers caught 41 passes for 580 yards and 5 TD’s.  We project Bowers to have a Travis Kelce / George Kittle type impact on whoever drafts him.  Easily a top 10 talent and a number of GM’s have him as a top 5 overall player in this draft.  Too good to pass on in the top 12 so we’ll grab the Under 12.5 for Bowers draft position.