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Rested Pitchers Can Lead to Unders
by ASA - 07/14/2017
The All-Star break has come and gone and we are back into full MLB mode as the Pennant chases start to take shape. The players have rested, enjoyed some time off, spent time with families and have allowed themselves a mental and physical break from the sport. The question is, how does that time off affect players and is there a betting advantage to be had? We've uncovered an interesting trend and we're ready to share the results with you.
In the first 3-games or the series following the All-Star break, "under" bettors have been rewarded at the ticket windows much more than the "over" players. This can be attributed to a couple different factors including, but not limited to, rested pitching arms and the lack of timing by hitters. In the past three years if you simple bet "under" on all the games played Friday through Sunday following the break you would have cashed 62% of your wagers (77-47 Under since 2014). Had you just bet "under" on any of those games when one of the two teams involved was favored by -135 or more you improve those winning results to 66% (43-22). That's logical as a -135 or more favorite probably features at least one solid pitcher. In 2016 the "unders" immediately following the All Star Break were especially good with a 30-12 record or 71%. The most successful situation we uncovered was betting the under in games with a line of -140 or better. That resulted in a near perfect 13-2 record last season.
Going into this year's break, MLB games averaged 17.36 total hits per game. Last season the average hits per game was 17.4 for the season. Last year following the break, MLB games averaged just 15.2 hits per game the first weekend after the All-Star break which obviously lends to the under.
Best of luck with all your Wagers,