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Beyond the BCS: 3 Teams in Fading Patterns
by Ben Burns - 10/07/2009
Each week David Payne and Ben Burns scour the non-BCS conferences, looking for a hidden gem to take advantage of.
This week, they take a look at teams that are set up to fall during the second half of the college football season.
Hawaii: The Warriors laid an egg and lost their quarterback in last week’s 27-6 loss at Louisiana Tech.
Senior starter Greg Alexander, one of nation’s leaders in total offense, ripped up his knee and is done for the year.
The Warriors’ second-string quarterback Brent Rausch is recovering from a broken finger, leaving third-string sophomore Bryant Moniz as the starter. Moniz, a junior college transfer, was listed on some recruiting sites as only 5-foot-9. He’s listed on Hawaii’s roster at 6-foot.
Either way, he’s short, inexperienced and talks like a third-stringer.
"I guess I never thought I'd make it this far,” Moniz told the Honolulu Advertiser. “There's nothing to lose. I already accomplished so much. Now it's all about having fun with your brothers on the field."
That statement doesn’t exactly ooze confidence.
Hawaii is a 9.5-point home underdog against Fresno State. The Warriors haven’t been that big of home dogs since USC came to town in 2005.
Akron: The Zips’ offense stunk before starting quarterback Chris Jacquemain was booted off the team in Week 3. But backup Matt Rodgers definitely hasn’t been much of improvement with his one touchdown and four interceptions.
Akron ranks last in the MAC in passing offense and total offense. They allow three sacks a game but only take down their opponent’s quarterback once every other game.
The heat is on head coach JD Brookhart and a mid-season dismissal is not out of the question. Either way, the Zips are going backwards and oddsmakers might not be able to keep up.
Ohio is a four-point favorite on Homecoming Saturday in Akron.
Idaho: The Vandals are the only team in the nation at 5-0 ATS.
It’s a nice run, but oddsmakers won’t let it last much longer.
Idaho is a 3.5-point underdog at San Jose State this week. That’s the smallest amount of points they’ve received on the road in the past three years.
The betting market has caught up.
The Vandals do have a favorable schedule, with fellow fade pattern participant Hawaii visiting in two weeks.
If the Vandals upset San Jose State Saturday and Hawaii loses to Fresno State, you have to figure Idaho will be at least a 14-point favorite over the Warriors, who covered as 25-point favorites against the Vandals last year.
Idaho hasn’t been a double-digit favorite in seven years. Has the Vandals’ talent really improved that drastically?