Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 05/07/2024

Tuesday, May 07, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT and truTV. The Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:10 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Celtics are an 11.5-point favorite, with the total set at 208.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the Dallas Mavericks at 9:40 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series. The Thunder are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 218.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Carolina Hurricanes travel to New York to play the Rangers at 7:10 p.m. ET in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Hurricanes are a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Dallas Stars are at home against the Colorado Avalanche at 9:40 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series. Dallas is a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Texas Rangers play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Cincinnati against the Reds as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles visit the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Chicago White Sox at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees play at home against the Houston Astros on TBS at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:20 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Kansas City Royals are at home against the Milwaukee Brewers as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets at 7:45 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The San Francisco Giants play in Colorado against the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Miami Marlins at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The second leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League begins on Paramount+ at 3 PM ET. Paris Saint-Germain is at home against Borussia Dortmund as a -1 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 3.

American League Report

by Will Rogers

Monday, May 06, 2024

Earlier, I took a look at how things were shaping up in the National League. Now, I'll do the same for the American League. I've paid some extra attention to Seattle and Baltimore, a pair of teams which I discussed before the season. I've also included a long-shot Cy Young Award pick you might want to take a look at. Orioles FlyingPrior to the start of the season, I stated that I was high on the Baltimore Orioles. At the time, they were 12-1 to win the World Series. (They're down to 9-1 now.) The Orioles have a 23-11 record and are currently battling the Yankees for the top spot in the American League East. There's a whole lot of baseball still to be played but they're currently looking in pretty good shape to make the playoffs. The offseason pickup of Corbin Burnes (see Cy Young odds below) has paid early dividends. Mariner ReportSeattle was another team which I was big on prior to the season. I said that I thought that the Mariners would finish with more than their projected total of 86 wins. I also said that that I thought they had a solid shot at winning the division. At the time, the line was +300 for them to do so. So far, so good. The Mariners 19-15 record is fairy underwhelming. The best news, however, is that Houston is just 12-22. It's too early to count out the Astros but it sure is nice to have an early 7-game lead on them. The Seattle pitching remains excellent. Check out the Cy Young odds below and you'll find three of the Mariner starters currently in the running for the best pitcher in the American League. Playoff PictureThings are less clear in the American League than they are in the National League. At least, that's the way that I see it. Either the Yankees or the Orioles should win the East. The one which doesn't will likely earn a Wildcard spot. Loaded as always, the other three teams in the division, Toronto, Boston and Tampa all also remain hopeful for a Wildcard spot. The Central and the West are up for grabs. The Guardians and Twins are the front-runners in the Central but the Royals and Tigers aren't far behind. The only thing for certain is that the White Sox are out of the running. They're terrible. The Mariners and Rangers are fighting for first in the West. The Astros got off to a terrible start but they've still got the talent to turn things around. The A's have been surprisingly competitive but won't be able to keep it up. The Angels are lousy. So, we've got the Yankees and Orioles likely to make it and 10 other teams who will be fighting it out for the other four playoff spots. That should make for an exciting summer! Cy Young OddsThe American League Cy Young field is wide open. Burnes and Skubal are the front-runners for a reason. But if looking for a long-shot, at +2200, Berrios looks pretty good. He's 4-2 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. That's the best ERA in baseball, entering his start on Tuesday May 7th. The Jays haven't really played up to their potential yet either. If they start swinging the bats better, Berrios may benefit. Here are the current top 10 candidates, the odds courtesy of Draft Kings. Skubal +250 Burnes +400Ragans +900Lopez +1500Gilbert +1500Kirby +1600Castillo +1800Ryan +2000Berrios +2200Gausman +2500

N.L. Playoff Picture + World Series Longshot Future

by Will Rogers

Monday, May 06, 2024

Most teams have now played around 35 of 162 games. Obviously, there's still a long way to go. Yet, we're already getting a good idea about which teams are likely to contend for the postseason and which ones aren't. The playoff picture in the National League is particularly clear for this point of the season. I've taken a closer look below. I've also included a long-shot team which I feel has a good chance at sneaking into the postseason and potentially making some noise when it gets there. Understanding the FormatTwelve teams make the playoffs, six from each league. That includes the three division winners and three Wildcard teams, non-divisional winners with the three best records. Once the postseason starts, the #1 and #2 seeds receive a bye in the Wildcard Round. The #3 seed, the division winner with the worst record, hosts the #6 seed. The #4 seed hosts the #5 seed. The Wildcard Round consists of a 3-game series. To ensure that the top team doesn't face another division winner, in the Division Round, the #1 seed faces the winner of the #4 vs. #5 series. The #2 sees faces the winner of the #3 vs. #6 series. Can A Wildcard Team Win The World Series?Last year, the Texas Rangers defeated Arizona in the World Series. Both teams were Wildcard entrants. Texas was the #5 seed in the American League while Arizona was the #6 seed in the National League. That wasn't the first time that a Wildcard team won it all. In fact, it happens with relative regularity. The Marlins won out of a Wildcard spot in 1997 and 2003. The Angels did so in 2002. The Red Sox accomplished the feat in 2004; the Cardinals, in 2011; the Giants, in 2014 and the Nationals, in 2019. Current NL Playoff ProjectionsThe Dodgers, Braves and Phillies are all very likely to make the playoffs. It currently appears probable that either the Cubs or the Brewers will win the NL Central. There's a good chance that the other will earn a Wildcard spot. So, that's five of the six NL playoff teams right here. The final spot figures to include one of the following six teams: St. Louis, San Diego, New York, Cincinnati, Arizona or San Francisco. Of the six, the Padres currently have the best chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs has them at 48%. The other five are all less than 30%. San Diego at 70-1 To Win the World SeriesLoaded with high-priced talent, the Padres were a popular pick to win the World Series last year. Things didn't go as planned. They lost a few pieces this season. Most assume that they missed their chance. However, the team and lineup is still stacked. Dylan Cease was a great offseason acquisition and the recent trade for Luis Arraez immediately made them better. They could use another top level starter but should be able to acquire one at the trade deadline. Draft Kings currently has the Padres at +7000 to win the World Series. I've explained that they have a reasonably good chance to make the playoffs. I've also demonstrated that teams can go the distance out of the WC spot. If you're looking for a long-shot to back for the World Series, take a look at the San Diego Padres!

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/06/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 06, 2024

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT and truTV. The New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers at 7:40 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinals series. The Knicks defeated Philadelphia in six games in the first round of the playoffs after a 118-115 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on the road against the 76ers on Thursday. The Pacers advanced past Milwaukee in the opening round of the playoffs with their 120-98 victory at home as a 6-point favorite in Game 5 of that series on Thursday. New York is a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 217. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 10:10 p.m. ET in Game 2 of their Western Conference semifinals series. The Nuggets lost the opening game of this series, 106-99, as a 4-point home favorite on Saturday. The Timberwolves are on a five-game winning streak after that victory. Denver is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 205. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game. The Florida Panthers are at home against the Boston Bruins in the opening game of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Panthers won for the eighth time in their last nine games after their 6-1 victory against Tampa Bay on Monday to end their series with the Lightning in five games. The Bruins beat Toronto, 2-1 in overtime, at home on Saturday to win that series in seven games. Florida is a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 10 games on its schedule. The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants at 4:05 p.m. ET as a -190 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 8. The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Detroit Tigers on FS1 at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Chicago White Sox at 6:50 p.m. ET. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play at home against the San Diego Padres as a -118 money-line favorite. The Seattle Mariners travel to Minnesota to play the Twins as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Kansas City Royals are at home against the Milwaukee Brewers as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets at 7:45 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Texas Rangers play in Oakland against the A’s at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Miami Marlins at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -270 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League concludes with one match on the USA Network at 3 p.m. ET. Manchester United is at Crystal Palace in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 3.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/05/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 05, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with one game. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Orlando Magic on ABC at 1:10 p.m. ET in the seventh game of their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series. The Cavaliers are a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 194.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games. The Carolina Hurricanes travel to New York to play the Rangers on ESPN at 4:10 p.m. ET in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Hurricanes are a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Vegas Golden Knights on TBS at 7:40 p.m. ET in the seventh game of their Western Conference quarterfinal series. The Stars are a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees are home against the Detroit Tigers as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Colorado Rockies as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Washington against the Nationals as a -115 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Mets as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros are at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are in Kansas to play the Royals. The Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago White Sox visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 2:15 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite. The Oakland A’s play at home against the Miami Marlins at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Three more MLB games begin at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves are in Los Angeles to play the Dodgers as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the San Francisco Giants traveling to Philadelphia to play the Phillies at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Giants are a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5.Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League continues with three matches. Two matches begin at 9:00 a.m. ET. Aston Villa plays at Brighton and Hove Albion on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 3. Chelsea plays at home against West Ham United as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Liverpool is at home against Tottenham at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 4.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/04/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 04, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby headlines the sporting events of the day. The Run for the Roses is the 12th race at Churchill Downs and has a start time of 6:57 PM ET.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with one game. The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinals series on TNT and truTV at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are a 4.5-point favorite, with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game. The Boston Bruins play at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinals series on ABC at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Bruins are a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are at home against the Detroit Tigers at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Chicago White Sox at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Washington to play the Nationals as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Colorado Rockies as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Oakland A’s play at home against the Miami Marlins at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 6:05 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians host the Los Angeles Angels at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play in Cincinnati against the Reds at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Texas Rangers are in Kansas City to play the Royals at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 7:15 p.m. ET in regional coverage on Fox. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the New York Mets as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Atlanta Braves at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favor with a total of 9.Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League continues with five matches. Arsenal is at home against Bournemouth on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -2 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Three more EPL matches begin at 10:10 a.m. ET. Brentford hosts Fulham as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Newcastle United visits Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Nottingham Forest plays at Sheffield United as a -1 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City hosts Wolverhampton on NBC as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: Betting the Second Round

by Sean Murphy

Friday, May 03, 2024

Betting on the second round of the NHL playoffs requires a mix of strategy, analysis and a bit of luck. Following a trusted professional handicapper can help you filter out the noise and identify positive expected value on a daily basis. Here are some tips to consider as the field narrows to eight teams vying for Lord Stanley's Cup. Analyze Team Form: Look beyond just the win-loss record in the first round. Consider factors such as goal differentials, shots on goal, time of possession and overall performance. Teams that dominated statistically in the first round are likely to carry that momentum into the second round.Evaluate Head-to-Head Matchups: Look at how teams matched up against each other during the regular season. Pay attention to trends such as which team has had success against the other and why. Certain teams may have specific strengths or weaknesses that could be exploited in the playoffs.Assess Goaltending: Goaltending is often the most crucial position in hockey, especially in the playoffs. Look at statistics such as save percentage, goals-against average and performance under pressure. Also, consider the depth of each team's goaltending roster in case of injuries or poor performance.Special Teams Performance: Analyze power play and penalty kill percentages for each team. A strong power play can capitalize on opportunities and swing the momentum of a game, while a solid penalty kill can shut down opponents' scoring chances.Home Ice Advantage: Take into account each team's performance at home versus on the road during the regular season. Some teams thrive in front of their home crowd and have a distinct advantage, while others may struggle away from home. Also, consider the impact of travel and fatigue on teams playing on the road.Injuries and Lineup Changes: Stay updated on injuries and lineup changes leading up to and during the series. A key player being sidelined or returning from injury can significantly impact a team's performance and strategy. Also, consider how teams adjust their line combinations and defensive pairings due to injuries or matchups.Look Beyond Statistics: While statistics are essential, don't rely solely on them. Consider intangible factors such as team chemistry, leadership and playoff experience. Teams with veteran players who have been through deep playoff runs may have a mental edge over younger, less experienced teams.Manage Your Bankroll: Set a specific budget for your betting activities and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses by betting more than you can afford to lose. Consider using strategies such as unit betting, where you wager a consistent percentage of your bankroll on each bet, to minimize risk.Shop for the Best Odds: Compare odds from multiple sportsbooks to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can have a significant impact on your overall profits, especially over the course of a long playoff series.Trust Your Instincts: While it's essential to do your research and analysis, don't discount your gut instincts. If something doesn't feel right about a particular bet or matchup, it's okay to pass or look for alternative betting opportunities. Trusting your instincts can help you avoid making rash decisions based solely on statistics or trends.Best of luck in round two!

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/03/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 03, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on ESPN. The Orlando Magic host the Cleveland Cavaliers on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 200 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 9:40 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 206.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on TNT. The Nashville Predators are at home against the Vancouver Canucks at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Dallas Stars travel to Vegas to play the Golden Knights at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favored with an over/under of 5.5.The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5. The Baltimore Orioles play in Cincinnati against the Reds at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the San Francisco Giants on Apple TV+ as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are in Washington to play the Nationals on Apple TV+ at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Mets at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -190 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Boston Red Sox as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago White Sox at 8:15 p.m. ET as a -265 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Oakland A’s play at home against the Miami Marlins as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the San Diego Padres as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9.Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League starts with one match. Everton visits Luton Town at 3:00 p.m. ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 02, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks at 6:40 PM ET. The Pacers had won three games in a row in this series before their 115-92 upset loss on the road as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Bucks still trail in the series by a 3-2 margin and need to win this game to force a decisive Game 7 back in Milwaukee. Indiana is an 8-point favorite, with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Philadelphia 76ers play at home against the New York Knicks at 9:10 p.m. ET. The 76ers have won two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset victory on the road as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. The Knicks hold a 3-2 lead in the series and can advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals with an upset victory. Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 198.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game on ESPN. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Boston Bruins on TBS at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Maple Leafs ended a two-game losing streak in this series with a 2-1 victory on the road on Tuesday. The Bruins hold a 3-2 lead in the series and can close things out and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals with a victory. Toronto is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has six games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 12:10 p.m. ET. The Marlins have won two games in a row after their 4-1 victory against the Rockies yesterday. Miami turn to Edward Cabrera as their starting pitcher to face Colorado’s Peter Lambert. The Marlins are a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees ended a two-game losing streak with a 2-0 victory against the Orioles on Wednesday. Carlos Rodon takes the mound of New York to battle against a starting pitcher yet to be named for Baltimore. The New York Mets play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Mets lost for the second time in their last three games in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday. New York sends out Adrian Houser to face Chicago’s Ben Brown. The Mets are a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are on a four-game winning streak after a 6-2 victory against the Giants on Wednesday. Josh Winckowski takes the hill for Boston to go against Kyle Harrison for the Giants. The Red Sox are a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Texas Rangers host the Washington Nationals at 2:35 p.m. ET. The Rangers had won two games in a row before a 1-0 loss to the Nationals yesterday. Texas turns to Nathan Eovaldi to duel against Mitchell Parker for the Nationals. The Rangers are a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros had won three games in a row before a 3-2 loss in ten innings to the Guardians on Wednesday. Spencer Arrighetti gets the start for Houston to pitch against Cleveland’s Logan Allen. The Astros are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5.

Big Al's 2024 Kentucky Derby Preview

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

The 2024 Kentucky Derby -- to be run this Saturday at the newly renovated Churchill Downs -- will likely be known for the horses that aren't in the starting gate as much as for the ones that are. That's because it's possible that the two of the best 3YOs in the country won't be among the 20 starters because they are trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert, you may recall, had a winning horse later disqualified from the 2021 Derby for a doping violation and Churchill Downs has banned the conditioner ever since. Nonetheless, the landmark 150th running of the Great Race still has plenty in store for serious handicappers and casual fans alike. So with that in mind, below we present our preview of the Contenders, Pretenders, and live longshots of the greatest two minutes in sports: Contenders: #2 - Sierra Leone. For most horses, the #2 post position in a 20-horse Derby could be the kiss of death, but this son of Gun Runner is a stone-cold closer and he's likely going to retreat to the back of the pack anyway, so the 2 hole probably won't matter and in fact may even benefit horse and rider -- in this case, Tyler Gafflione -- alike. If the pace is hot enough and Sierra Leone can navigate his way around or through 19 other horses, then he could get trainer Chad Brown -- who has won just about everything else in horse racing -- his first Derby victory. You may not want to bet on him as the likely 2nd favorite (after Fierceness) but you can't deny his talent and the fact that, if there is enough speed in here, this horse will be flying late. #4 - Catching Freedom. Here's a riddle for you. How can you win the Derby without ever having stepped foot (or hoof) in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May? Just ask trainer Brad Cox what that's like. Cox had to wait more than a year for his horse Mandaloun to be declared the winner of the 2021 Derby after the official winner, Medina Spirit, tested positive for a banned substance and was eventually disqualified. So Cox -- one of the most successful trainers in the U.S. over the past several years -- has entered three horses this year in an attempt to find out what it really feels like to win the World's most prestigious horse race. Of the three, this son of Constitution is the most accomplished, having won the Louisiana Derby in his last start. At 1 3/16 mile, that race is the one that's closest in distance to the Derby's 10 furlongs. Pretenders (likely over-bet horses): #17 - Fierceness. The likely Derby favorite is an all-or-nothing horse. When this son of City of Light gets a clean break and no other horses are in his way or bumping him, he can run like Secretariat. This was the case the both last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile and his most recent victory -- a 13-length romp in the Florida Derby. But when things don't go his way -- he breaks slowly, gets jostled, etc. -- he seems to pack it in. So what are the chances that everything goes his way on Saturday with 19 other horses trying to win this race and get draped in a blanket of roses? It would take a lot more than his likely 2-1 odds to get us to find out. He's on a bad race/good race streak right now (over his last four starts) and it doesn't get much better than his last so it's time for a letdown. #11 - Forever Young. Sometimes history is on your side, and sometimes it isn't. There's no question that Forever Young has an impressive resume coming up to the Derby. As the only undefeated horse in the field, you could say his resume is the best. But when foreign runners come to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May -- and lately that means Japanese runners -- they leave empty-handed. Can this son of Real Steel buck the trend and be the first to take home the Roses? Sure he can. But when it comes to Japanese horses in the Derby, I'm from Missouri -- SHOW ME. And until they do, all bets -- including mine -- are off. Live Longshots: #3 - Mystik Dan. If you believe in speed figures, then you're probably going to put some money on Fierceness who has registered the highest numbers in this field. But the horse with the second highest figures -- both as a 2-year-old as well as in 2024 -- is this son of Goldencents. The Kenny McPeek-trained runner put up a huge figure when winning the Southwest Stakes by eight lengths and although he couldn't repeat that effort when he stayed at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan ran a credible 3rd despite having all kinds of trouble. The McPeek/(jockey Brian) Hernandez combination is one that's very familiar with Churchill downs and in fact Mystik Dan has a 7-length victory over this surface last year. There are enough knocks against this horse that you are likely to get a better price than his 20-1 morning line, making him one of the best values in the race. #7 - Honor Marie. Chances are even if you follow horse racing you haven't heard of trainer Whitworth Beckman. The young conditioner worked for both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown before striking out on his own in 2021. This son of Honor Code is Beckman's first Kentucky Derby horse, but it almost certainly won't be his last. Honor Marie has the type of improving form we like to see coming up to the Derby, including a fast-closing second in the Louisiana Derby in his last race. Another 1/16 of a mile and Beckman's horse would have likely been the winner and wouldn't be considered such a longshot on Saturday. Beckman is sticking with little known Ben Curtis in the saddle and that might be a problem were it not for the fact that Curtis rides regularly here at Churchill Downs. Another 20-1 horse with a huge shot. #15 - Domestic Product. The other Chad Brown entrant in the field, this son of Practical Joke last won the Tampa Bay Derby after a long tote delay and he was able to overcome a ridiculously slow early pace in that race and still rally to get up from mid-pack. The resulting speed figure from that race is -- not surprisingly -- low, but it is also misleading because of the way the lead horses were crawling in the first half. The other reason Domestic Product is a bigger longshot than he should be is because the Tampa Bay Derby was eight weeks ago and few horses have been successful in the Derby after that much time off. But Domestic Product has been training like a monster and he will also get one of the best jockeys in the world, Irad Ortiz, to pilot him, making him about as live as a horse can be.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite, with the total set at 198.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks travel to Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 10:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 207.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Vegas Golden Knights at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Los Angeles Kings at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favor with an over/under of 6.5.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The St. Louis Cardinals play in Detroit against the Tigers, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Kansas City Royals at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the New York Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play in New York against the Mets as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the San Francisco Giants. Two MLB games start at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League concludes on CBS at 3 PM ET. Borussia Dortmund plays at home against Paris Saint-Germain in a pick ‘em match at BetMGM with a total of 3.

Tarik Skubal's Emergence as an Elite Starting Pitcher

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

At this time last season, Tarik Skubal was still recovering from flexor tendon surgery that ended his 2022 season prematurely in August. He demonstrated promise that year by posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. A year later, he has become one of the best-starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. When he did return in early July of last year, he started 15 times the rest of the way. He posted a 7-3 record with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. After getting up to 80 pitches in his fourth start, he registered a 2.37 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his final 12 starts. He struck out 33.6% of the batters he faced during that span. His outstanding pitching carried over into the spring where he registered a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings. He struck out 17 batters and walked only three in those spring training efforts. Going into his game on Sunday against Kansas City, the left-hander was coming off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He had a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He had punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he was striking out 31.2% of the batters he faced. This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal had a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an expected ERA of 2.30. I am leaning into the expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rates, barrel-rates, and exit velocity. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. His four-seamer is outstanding — and he uses his deceptive change-up as his primary off-speed pitch. If he can further develop his slider, he will be even more effective. The Tigers had won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He was set up to thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595. Skubal gave up a leadoff double to Maikel Garcia who then scored when the next batter, Bobby Witt Jr,. singled him home. But that was all the damage that Kansas City could muster with Skubal only giving up our hits and that lone run in seven innings of work. The lefty struck out six batters. Detroit won the game by a 4-1 score — and we won our MLB American League Central Game of the Month. Best of luck — Frank.

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