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Big Al's 2024 Kentucky Derby Preview

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

The 2024 Kentucky Derby -- to be run this Saturday at the newly renovated Churchill Downs -- will likely be known for the horses that aren't in the starting gate as much as for the ones that are.  That's because it's possible that the two of the best 3YOs in the country won't be among the 20 starters because they are trained by Bob Baffert.  Baffert, you may recall, had a winning horse later disqualified from the 2021 Derby for a doping violation and Churchill Downs has banned the conditioner ever since.  Nonetheless, the landmark 150th running of the Great Race still has plenty in store for serious handicappers and casual fans alike.  So with that in mind, below we present our preview of the Contenders, Pretenders, and live longshots of the greatest two minutes in sports:    Contenders:    #2 - Sierra Leone.  For most horses, the #2 post position in a 20-horse Derby could be the kiss of death, but this son of Gun Runner is a stone-cold closer and he's likely going to retreat to the back of the pack anyway, so the 2 hole probably won't matter and in fact may even benefit horse and rider -- in this case, Tyler Gafflione -- alike.  If the pace is hot enough and Sierra Leone can navigate his way around or through 19 other horses, then he could get trainer Chad Brown -- who has won just about everything else in horse racing -- his first Derby victory.  You may not want to bet on him as the likely 2nd favorite (after Fierceness) but you can't deny his talent and the fact that, if there is enough speed in here, this horse will be flying late.   #4 - Catching Freedom.  Here's a riddle for you.  How can you win the Derby without ever having stepped foot (or hoof) in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May?  Just ask trainer Brad Cox what that's like.  Cox had to wait more than a year for his horse Mandaloun to be declared the winner of the 2021 Derby after the official winner, Medina Spirit, tested positive for a banned substance and was eventually disqualified.  So Cox -- one of the most successful trainers in the U.S. over the past several years -- has entered three horses this year in an attempt to find out what it really feels like to win the World's most prestigious horse race.  Of the three, this son of Constitution is the most accomplished, having won the Louisiana Derby in his last start.  At 1 3/16 mile, that race is the one that's closest in distance to the Derby's 10 furlongs.      Pretenders (likely over-bet horses):    #17 - Fierceness. The likely Derby favorite is an all-or-nothing horse.  When this son of City of Light gets a clean break and no other horses are in his way or bumping him, he can run like Secretariat.  This was the case the both last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile and his most recent victory -- a 13-length romp in the Florida Derby.  But when things don't go his way -- he breaks slowly, gets jostled, etc. -- he seems to pack it in.  So what are the chances that everything goes his way on Saturday with 19 other horses trying to win this race and get draped in a blanket of roses?  It would take a lot more than his likely 2-1 odds to get us to find out.  He's on a bad race/good race streak right now (over his last four starts) and it doesn't get much better than his last so it's time for a letdown.    #11 - Forever Young.  Sometimes history is on your side, and sometimes it isn't.  There's no question that Forever Young has an impressive resume coming up to the Derby.  As the only undefeated horse in the field, you could say his resume is the best.  But when foreign runners come to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May -- and lately that means Japanese runners -- they leave empty-handed.  Can this son of Real Steel buck the trend and be the first to take home the Roses?  Sure he can.  But when it comes to Japanese horses in the Derby, I'm from Missouri -- SHOW ME.  And until they do, all bets -- including mine -- are off.   Live Longshots:    #3 - Mystik Dan.  If you believe in speed figures, then you're probably going to put some money on Fierceness who has registered the highest numbers in this field.  But the horse with the second highest figures -- both as a 2-year-old as well as in 2024 -- is this son of Goldencents.  The Kenny McPeek-trained runner put up a huge figure when winning the Southwest Stakes by eight lengths and although he couldn't repeat that effort when he stayed at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan ran a credible 3rd despite having all kinds of trouble.  The McPeek/(jockey Brian) Hernandez combination is one that's very familiar with Churchill downs and in fact Mystik Dan has a 7-length victory over this surface last year.  There are enough knocks against this horse that you are likely to get a better price than his 20-1 morning line, making him one of the best values in the race.   #7 - Honor Marie.  Chances are even if you follow horse racing you haven't heard of trainer Whitworth Beckman.  The young conditioner worked for both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown before striking out on his own in 2021.  This son of Honor Code is Beckman's first Kentucky Derby horse, but it almost certainly won't be his last.  Honor Marie has the type of improving form we like to see coming up to the Derby, including a fast-closing second in the Louisiana Derby in his last race.  Another 1/16 of a mile and Beckman's horse would have likely been the winner and wouldn't be considered such a longshot on Saturday.  Beckman is sticking with little known Ben Curtis in the saddle and that might be a problem were it not for the fact that Curtis rides regularly here at Churchill Downs.  Another 20-1 horse with a huge shot.    #15 - Domestic Product.  The other Chad Brown entrant in the field, this son of Practical Joke last won the Tampa Bay Derby after a long tote delay and he was able to overcome a ridiculously slow early pace in that race and still rally to get up from mid-pack.  The resulting speed figure from that race is -- not surprisingly -- low, but it is also misleading because of the way the lead horses were crawling in the first half.  The other reason Domestic Product is a bigger longshot than he should be is because the Tampa Bay Derby was eight weeks ago and few horses have been successful in the Derby after that much time off.  But Domestic Product has been training like a monster and he will also get one of the best jockeys in the world, Irad Ortiz, to pilot him, making him about as live as a horse can be.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite, with the total set at 198.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks travel to Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 10:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 207.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Vegas Golden Knights at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Los Angeles Kings at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favor with an over/under of 6.5.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The St. Louis Cardinals play in Detroit against the Tigers, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Kansas City Royals at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the New York Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play in New York against the Mets as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the San Francisco Giants. Two MLB games start at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League concludes on CBS at 3 PM ET. Borussia Dortmund plays at home against Paris Saint-Germain in a pick ‘em match at BetMGM with a total of 3. 

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Tarik Skubal's Emergence as an Elite Starting Pitcher

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

At this time last season, Tarik Skubal was still recovering from flexor tendon surgery that ended his 2022 season prematurely in August. He demonstrated promise that year by posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. A year later, he has become one of the best-starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. When he did return in early July of last year, he started 15 times the rest of the way. He posted a 7-3 record with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. After getting up to 80 pitches in his fourth start, he registered a 2.37 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his final 12 starts. He struck out 33.6% of the batters he faced during that span. His outstanding pitching carried over into the spring where he registered a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings. He struck out 17 batters and walked only three in those spring training efforts.  Going into his game on Sunday against Kansas City, the left-hander was coming off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He had a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He had punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he was striking out 31.2% of the batters he faced.  This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal had a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an expected ERA of 2.30. I am leaning into the expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rates, barrel-rates, and exit velocity. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. His four-seamer is outstanding — and he uses his deceptive change-up as his primary off-speed pitch. If he can further develop his slider, he will be even more effective.  The Tigers had won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He was set up to thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595.  Skubal gave up a leadoff double to Maikel Garcia who then scored when the next batter, Bobby Witt Jr,. singled him home. But that was all the damage that Kansas City could muster with Skubal only giving up our hits and that lone run in seven innings of work. The lefty struck out six batters. Detroit won the game by a 4-1 score — and we won our MLB American League Central Game of the Month.  Best of luck — Frank.

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North Carolina State's Bubble Burst (and so did our Fear and Loathing month of March)

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

Perhaps we just needed the calendar to move to April? After enjoying a good college basketball season that included winning our College Basketball Game of the Month with Iowa State’s easy victory against Oklahoma on February 28th, about nothing went right in March with a very disappointing March Madness campaign. But once we got out of the month, we went 6-0 with our final six college basketball plays in April with 2-0 sweeps in both Final Four games and then in the National Championship. We also won our College Basketball Game of the Year on Purdue in their Final Four contest.  Going into that game against North Carolina State, Purdue had won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game. The Wolfpack had won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game. This game was being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament had included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they had probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago.  I expected their bubble to finally burst — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run had been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo was not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns had thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey did not need to do that — he was just going to stand there and raise his arms. He didn’t commit many fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns could attempt to attack the rim — but Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play.  The Wolfpack faced an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum was a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he used Burns to try to defend him, he risked getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men had fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue had played. Burns was too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he was spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue played the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey would have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranked third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he was on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams had attempted to deploy a zone defense against them.  NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense in the Elite Eight which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they had covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue had covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they had covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. The Boilermakers had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points.  Purdue controlled the game in a 63-50 victory. Edey scored 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting and grabbed 12 rebounds. Burns only scored 8 points. The Wolfpack only made 37% of their shots. The closest NC State would make the game was within seven points with just over eight minutes left. We won our College Basketball Game of the Year and ended the season on a relatively high note, but understanding an autopsy is needed to determine what went wrong in the month of March. I’ll solve it.  Best of luck — Frank.

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Once Again, UConn Was Inevitable

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

After UConn and Purdue won their final four games to reach the national championship game, it created a showdown between the two number-one seeds.  At first glance, it looked tough to lay six to seven points against this talented and determined Boilermakers squad that had won eleven of their last twelve games. Yet UConn had won eleven straight games in the NCAA tournament by 13 or more points. While it is difficult to repeat as national champions, the Huskies had already done most of the heavy lifting to get back to the title game. They took Alabama’s best punches early in their final four games as the Crimson Tide hit eight of their first eleven shots from 3-point land. Midway through the first half, the Huskies trailed, 23-18. Yet Alabama only made three of their last twelve shots from 3-point land while UConn would outscore them, 68-49, to win the game by an 86-72 score.  Purdue, on the other hand, looked shaky in their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State in their national semifinal game. The Boilermakers made only 40.0% of their shots and turned the ball over 16 times. Sophomore point guard Braden Smith only connected on one of his nine shots and committed five turnovers himself. He was called for two over-and-back backcourt violations early in the game which might have been a product of nerves.  UConn had a big advantage in the backcourt with their talented guards, Tristen Newton and Stephon Castle. Newton brought the experience of being in the starting five in last year’s championship run. Purdue still had Zach Edey yet this will be one of the rare times when he does not have a significant size edge against his opponent. Donovan Clingan is 7’2 and perhaps the best defensive center in the country. Edey needed to win this one-on-one battle by a decisive margin to make up for the advantage UConn has with their guards. That seemed unlikely, especially since Edey had played at least 38 minutes in three straight games making fatigue a factor working against him. Clingan has played less than 30 minutes in each of the games in the NCAA tournament. Purdue took plenty of 3-pointers and there was always a chance that they could get red-hot with these shots. This was how Creighton beat the Huskies the last time they lost a game in February. But head coach Dan Hurley was well-versed in preparing his teams to defend against this style of play. The Huskies were difficult to beat by relying on 3-pointers. Their opponents made only 31.4% of these shots against them which was the 42nd-best mark in the country. UConn did a great job getting shooters off the 3-point line as well. Their opponents took only 33.4% of their shots from 3-point land which is the 50th lowest mark. Overall, the Huskies opponents scored only 28.2% of their shots from 3-pointers. That mark ranked 263rd lowest in the country and is far below the 30.4% national average.  In his seventeen games in the NCAA tournament coaching for Rhode Island or UConn, Hurley’s teams had covered the point spread fourteen times. UConn had covered the point spread in twenty-eight of their last thirty-three games against non-conference opponents under Hurley. Take away the non-conference games when the Huskies were favored by 20 or more points and UConn had won and covered the point spread in twenty-one of those twenty-two non-conference games.  The Huskies could get hot from 3-point land themselves which would make the Boilermakers task nearly impossible. They had their best shooting performance from 3-point land in the NCAA tournament against Alabama by making 10 of their 25 shots from distance. UConn averages 24 shots from behind the 3-point line, and Purdue had covered the point spread in three of their last nine games after fifteen games against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game.  Finally, the outstanding defense that the Huskies played should not have been dismissed lightly. They ranked fourth in the country in defensive efficiency and had held their first four opponents to 58 or fewer points before Alabama scored 72 against them. The Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game, and the Boilermakers had covered the point spread only once in their last seven games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 points per game.  Our prognostication was rewarded by UConn’s 75-60 victory. The Huskies went into halftime with a 36-30 lead before slowly but methodically breaking the will of the Boilermakers in the second half to win their second straight national championship.  Good luck - TDG.

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Humiliated Home Dogs Rarely Save Face in Avoiding a Playoff Sweep

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

After the Minnesota Timberwolves took a 3-0 series lead against the Phoenix Suns in a 126-109 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog in Game 3 of that opening-round series on Friday, the oddsmakers installed them as a 2-point road favorite in Game 4 last Sunday. The betting market thought that was unjustified. Perhaps sold that the veteran Suns players like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal would raise their level of play to avoid getting swept on their home court. The betting market may have been influenced by the Los Angeles Lakers beating Denver the previous night to keep that series alive rather than end their season on their home court getting swept. Phoenix closed as a 1.5-point favorite in many shops. Yet history had demonstrated that home teams trying to avoid getting swept after getting dominated in the first three games of an NBA series simply do not fare well relative to the point spread. The Timberwolves won the first of their games by 25, 12, and 15 points. In their 126-109 upset victory on the road as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday, the Timberwolves had six players score in double digits led by Anthony Edwards’ 36 points. Head coach Chris Finch was outcoaching the Suns’ Frank Vogel. Minnesota was imposing its physical will on them. They outscored Phoenix by 20 points in the paint in Game 3. They were scoring 38.5% of their shots at the rim in this series. The Suns did not seem to have a player who could slow down Edwards.  We considered this point spread movement as an overreaction, and history bears this out. Since the first round of the NBA playoffs was expanded to seven games, there had been nine teams who won the first three games of the opening series by ten or more points. Seven of these teams went on to win Game 4, and they all triumphed by six or more points. Three of those teams continued blowing out their outmatched opponents by twenty or more points. Only the 2012 Miami Heat and the 2018 Golden State Warriors failed to end that opening-round series in the fourth game. It perhaps is revealing that what both that Heat team and those Warriors had in common was that they both had reached the NBA finals the previous season. In hindsight, they got complacent and gave their opponent a little more life. Minnesota was still looking for their first playoff series victory in the Edwards era. They lost in the opening round to Denver in five games last year.  The Suns started the game well and went into the locker room with a 61-56 lead. Yet the Timberwolves outscored them in the second half, 66-55, and ended the series with a 122-116 upset victory. Minnesota even covered the opening point spread from the oddsmakers as a 2-point road favorite. It is now eight of ten teams who won the first three games of the opening series by ten or more points and then went on to win Game 4 by six or more points.  While it would probably be foolish to bet on a road team attempting to pull off a playoff sweep after winning the first three games by ten or more points solely because of this reason, it is something to consider. At the very least, this trend may provide enough of a reason to lay off the home dog playing for pride in front of their fans. Three straight losses by double-digits say something about the relative strengths of both teams. In this case, the oddsmakers recognized that and moved the point spread 7 points initially before the market responded. Once again, the wisdom of the oddsmakers was on display.  Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/30/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with three games. The New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers on TNT at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 202 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Orlando Magic on NBA TV at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 199.5. The Indiana Pacers travel to Milwaukee to play the Bucks on TNT at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 214.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Islanders on TBS at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play in Winnipeg against the Jets on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play at home against the Nashville Predators on TBS at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of their doubleheader at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -128 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees are in Baltimore to play the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies. The Tigers play at home against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants visit the Boston Red Sox as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play against the Brewers. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Washington Nationals at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros are at home against the Cleveland Browns at 8:10 p.m. ET on FS1 as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Four games conclude the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves play in Seattle to play the Mariners as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Oakland to play the A’s as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds play in San Diego against the Padres.

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Value Betting: Home Factoring Adjustments

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, Apr 29, 2024

Though I am known for betting a lot of totals and underdogs, when it comes to spread sports in particular, of course there are plenty of opportunities to bet favorites when the number and/or price is right and the value is there. One of the keys about favorites is whether or not the home court or home field or home ice or home pitch is properly factored and how that pertains to the team you are wanting to bet. The reason this can be a key is that generally the extra value added to the home team when lines are made is quite standard. You can get value in betting on or against a home favorite when you factor this in. Since the factor for the home team is generally standard but teams do perform differently than others when at home you get some value spots.  This is because some are exceptional and have a huge home edge while others are sometimes even better on the road or at least just as good away from home compared to as a host. The value can be had in looking for extra line variations based on this home/road value generated aspect. I always do my first handicapping based on situational aspects. But then, after finding the games I want to dive further into, I always factor in the home/road dichotomy of each match-up and how that creates value. The ones with the biggest variations from the mean are almost always the ones that make the final cut for me. So sometimes I might be backing the undervalued home fave or fading an overvalued home team. The key here is evaluating, for example, should this NFL home team be given the 3 points extra they are being given under the circumstances. Perhaps a team does not deserve anything extra because they are lousy at home. Or maybe they are ultra strong at home and one could argue the line should have been bolstered by 5 points at home. These are the keys to line value when you like something already but also are happy to see the line factoring on the home team is working in your favor as well! This can be a key to extra betting value throughout a season. 

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Money Line Options in Spread Sports

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, Apr 29, 2024

Money Line Options in Spread SportsEven In spread sports there can be cases where money line utilization makes sense. First off, I recommend always doing your handicapping as you normally would. For me, that is situational based. However, once you have done that then look at the value of utilizing the money line. This is particularly true of the games with smaller spreads of course as large money lines present too much risk. Lets say you wrapped uo your handicapping and had decided on two bets. In the first one, the road dog has no discernible variation either way but the home fave does and it is the home team that you were wanting to play. Lets say the home team is 8-2 SU last 10 games but 3 of the 8 wins were by 3 or less points. The line on this game is -4 let's say. So in the example above, in theory, if you lay the -4 you have a 50-50 chance of winning the bet because only 5 of their last 10 games have resulted in a win by more than 3 points. But the money line is, in theory, an 8-2 or 80 percent win rate per the SU 8-2 record used in this example. Now, let's say the money line is -175. 8 wins is 800 in winnings and 2 losses equate to 350 in defeats. As you can see, that is much better odds than 50-50. In a case like this, laying the money line is not only worth a look, it seems like a great option. In another example let's say you are looking at a dog that is only 3-7 last 10 games but 4 of the 7 losses by 5 or less points. The line on this game lets say is 5.5 and the money line is +200 on the dog. So if you bet the dog in 10 games at this value in theory you are looking at +600 in wins but -700 in losses. A losing proposition. Conversely, on the spread you would be looking at 7 wins (3 outright and 4 via the spread) and that equates to +700 while the 3 losses would cost you -330. This is something strong to get behind.  So in this case the spread makes more sense! In summary, you can see that digging deeper can often help you hone in on additional value when looking for the best way to put the odds in your favor on a game you like. Keep this in mind when you are considering money line plays - whether dog or fave - as there are often cases where a money line makes the most sense. After all, the biggest key to sports betting is putting the odds in your favor!

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/29/24

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Apr 29, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with four games. The Boston Celtics travel to Miami to play the Heat on TNT at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point road favorite with the total set at 203 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Oklahoma City Thunder play in New Orleans against the Pelicans on NBA TV as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 204.5. The Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Lakers on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 217.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars are in Vegas to play the Golden Knights on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the New York Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The St. Louis Cardinals visit Detroit to play the Tigers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Mets are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -127 money-line favorite at BetOnline with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play in Chicago against the White Sox on FS1 at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Twins send out Joe Ryan as their starting pitcher to go against the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. Minnesota is a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Four games conclude the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves travel to Seattle to play the Mariners as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Oakland to play the A’s as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds visit San Diego to play the Padres with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 8.

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Euro 2024 Odds and Futures Winner

by Will Rogers

Sunday, Apr 28, 2024

The 17th UEFA European Championship will run from June 14-July 14 at stadiums across Germany. The usual suspects like: England, France, Germany and Spain are expected to contend for the title. With the first games fast approaching, let's get caught up on the current odds. I've also included my long-shot pick to win the entire tournament. Group FuturesGroup AGermany -225Switzerland +500Hungary +600Scotland +800Group BSpain -145Italy +275Croatia +450Albania +2200Group CEngland -250Denmark +400Serbia +800Slovenia +1200Group DFrance -200Netherlands +300Austria +800Poland +1100Group EBelgium -285Ukraine +600Romania +700Slovakia +950Group FPortugal -250Turkey +400Czech Republic +700Georgia +1800Germany: A Safe Bet Win Group A All six group favorites should certainly advance. Most, perhaps all, will finish on top of their foursome. Group B is the undisputed "Group Of Death," as Spain, Italy and Croatia all rank in the top 10 in the world. Poor Albania has no chance. Playing on their home soil, Germany at -225 looks like a fairly safe bet to win Group A. Odds To Win Euro 2024England: +300 France: +340 Germany: +600 Spain: +700 Portugal: +800 Belgium: +1400 Italy: +1600 Netherlands: +1600 Denmark: +3500 Croatia: +4000 Turkey: +5000 Switzerland: +6500 Serbia: +8000 Austria: +8000 Scotland: +8000 Hungary: +8000 Ukraine: +10000 Poland: +10000 Czech Republic: +15000 Romania: +20000 Slovenia: +20000 Albania: +25000 Georgia: +50000 Slovakia: +50000 Rogers' Euro Cup WinnerBelgium +1400 (Draft Kings) and +1614 (Pinnacle)Since finishing third at the World Cup in 2018, Belgium has underachieved in international events. That could be partly why this year's team is flying under the radar. The defense may not be as stingy, but the Red Devils are still loaded with world-class attackers. Remember, Belgium is ranked #3 in the world in the Fifa rankings. Only Argentina and France rank higher. Importantly, as the biggest favorite to win its group, Belgium also has an easy path to the knockout round.  Assuming they win Group E, the Red Devils will face a third-placed team from either Group A, B, C or D. Following the group winner route, a potential meeting with the Group D winner or Group F runner-up (Turkey, Georgia/Greece, Portugal, Czech Republic) in the quarter-finals awaits. It'll get harder from there but by that time, Belgium is already in the semis. At +1400 or better, I think Belgium has a real chance at shocking the world. 

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UFC 301 Preview and Picks

by Will Rogers

Sunday, Apr 28, 2024

Pantoja vs. Erceg will take place on May 4, 2024, at the Farmasi Arena, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It may not be as star-studded as UFC 300 but it promises to still be an exciting event. Let's take a closer look at this week's two biggest matches. The Main EventPantoja -205Erceg +170Total: 3.5 over -125 Flyweight champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja has won five straight fights and is 27-5 for his career. Steve "Astro Boy" Erceg is off 11 straight victories and is 12-1 for his career, 3-0 in the UFC. Erceg's record is certainly impressive but he hasn't been fighting top level competition. With recent wins against Royval (twice) and Moreno, Pantoja has been taking on some of the best in the division. This will be his second title defense. Pantoja is from Brazil. So, this fight is in his own backyard. Erceg is from Australia. While he recently delivered an impressive knockout, many are questioning how the relatively unknown Erceg, the #10 contender, even got a title shot. Pantoja is extremely tough and he's a great grappler. However, Erceg may have the advantage when the fighters are on their feet. Erceg had this to say: "Yeah, I just think I'm going to pick him apart. That being said, it’s not like I'm going to be able to stay on the outside the whole time. I fully expect him to find ways to get to the grappling, that sort of thing. But I’m no chump there. I’m also a black belt. Before people started calling me a knockout guy cause I had one knockout I was a ‘grappler’ in the UFC so I’m fully confident in my skills on the ground and in the grapple and I think I separate myself with the striking technique."Prediction: Pantoja's grappling and his experience probably tip the scales in his favor. Erceg seems to be the real deal though and an upset wouldn't totally surprise. I'm not touching this one but am excited to watch what should be an exciting and closer than expected battle. The Co-Main Event Jonathan Martinez-162Jose Aldo +136Total 2.5 over -315, under +230Jose "Junior" Aldo is in familiar territory. After all, the decorated veteran, making his return from a brief UFC retirement, is known as "The King of Rio." Aldo has had a few boxing matches since last fighting in the Octagon. Aldo (31-8) is a legend and has fought the best of the best. He's also 37 years old and his last UFC fight was a (decision) loss to Merab Dvalishvili in August 2022. Prior to that, he'd won three straight. However, those three victories were preceded by three straight losses. So, he's only 3-4 since a loss to Volkanovski  in May of 2019. Jonathan "Dragon" Martinez, 30 years old, has a 19-4 record. Off six straight victories, he hasn't lost a fight since March of 2021.  Known for being a leg kick specialist, Aldo will get a taste of his own medicine. Martinez is also known for his dangerous leg kicks. In fact, he's ended two of his last three fights by leg-kick TKO. Aldo was quoted as saying: “He’s a very tough opponent, and I think he has what, two wins by leg kicks? I’m a specialist at what I do, and you’re always going to face people that do the same thing that you do, but that’s what I’m known for, my leg kicks."Prediction: Aldo probably isn't what he used to be but beating the Brazllian legend on the scorecards in Rio won't be easy. Martinez knows a stoppage avoids worrying about the judges. At a huge underdog return, take a look at the under 2.5 rounds. 

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