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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, EPL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 1/1/24

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 01, 2024

The Monday New Year’s Day sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The college football bowl postseason continues with five games. LSU plays Wisconsin on ESPN2 at noon ET in the Reliaquest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. The Tigers are a 9-point favorite, with the total set at 57.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two college football bowl games kick off at 1 PM ET. Tennessee battles Iowa on ESPN in the Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The Volunteers are a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 36. Oregon takes on Liberty on ABC in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Ducks are an 18-point favorite with a total of 68.5. The college football playoffs begin at 5 PM ET, with Michigan facing Alabama on ESPN in the Rose Bowl at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. The Wolverines are a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Texas plays Washington in the nightcap on ESPN at 8:45 PM ET in the Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Longhorns are a 4-point favorite with a total of 63.5. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to New York to play the Knicks at 3:10 PM ET as a -1.5 point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Toronto Raptors host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:40 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 224. Two more NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Houston Rockets play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 7-point favorite with a total of 259.5. Four more games conclude the NBA card at 9:10 PM ET. The Denver Nuggets host the Charlotte Hornets as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as an 11-point favorite, with a total of 229. The Dallas Mavericks visit Utah to play the Jazz as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 245.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against the Miami Heat as a 6.5-point favorite, with a total of 228.The National Hockey League has one game on its slate. Vegas battles Seattle on TNT at 3:07 PM ET in the Winter Classic at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The Golden Knights are a  -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has one game on national television. Drexel hosts Hampton on the CBS Sports Network at noon ET as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 139.5. Matchweek 20 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Liverpool plays at home against Newcastle United on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 3.5.

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Florida State Should Have Made the College Football Playoff

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

Based on their going undefeated and winning the ACC championship game against Louisville and the lack of two other undefeated power-five conference teams with undefeated records, the Florida State Seminoles should have been selected to compete in the college football playoff. Some may say that their 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl demonstrates they would have offered little competition in the final four, yet that ignores the fact that the Seminoles played that game without more than twenty of the players that beat the Cardinals last month. At the time, the most popular argument justifying the exclusion of Florida State was that their starting quarterback Jordan Travis was out the season with an injury. Unfortunately, the Seminoles were not given any benefit of the doubt for beating Louisville by double digits with a third-string quarterback, Brock Glenn, despite the Cardinals being ranked in the top 15 of their playoff ranking system. If Florida State would have played in the playoff semifinals, presumably against Michigan, then it would have been second-string quarterback Tate Rodemaker most likely under center given the extra four weeks to clear the concussion protocol. Critics complaining about the Seminoles only gaining 219 yards in their victory failed to understand the situation. Neither the committee nor anyone else has any reliable idea how the Florida State offense would perform with a month of practice with Rodemaker getting the first string reps. Alabama was selected above them because of the presumption of their superior talent because of their high-level recruiting rankings. Yet computer rankings systems were supposed to remove these biases. If recruiting is so important, why not just have two guaranteed SEC teams in because of recruiting rankings (that are often wrong, by the way, as demonstrated by the number of four and five-star players that enter the transfer portal)? The era of SEC dominance may already be over given the transfer portal and NIL. Selecting Alabama over Florida State presumes one is confident in the assessment that the SEC dominance still prevails and that their champion deserves the benefit of the doubt at the exclusion of an undefeated power five conference team. Would this still be the case if the SEC conference championship game-winner was a two-loss team? Georgia and Alabama seem to have taken a step back this year. Perhaps they are both two of the top four teams in the nation if afforded a schedule where they play a 100-game round-robin against the top sixteen teams in the county. Who knows. Yet the bigger issue may be how many steps back teams like Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss have taken this season. The impact of NIL and the transfer portal is immediate, especially when losing players to the NFL. These rosters turnover very quickly. What was Georgia’s most impressive victory this season?Some observers point to the oddsmakers' odds that project Alabama as much more competitive than Florida State in the final four. Yet that is a reason to perhaps include Ohio State over Washington in the playoffs even after their loss to Michigan last month. Relying on the oddsmakers' betting line as an argument to include or exclude a potential playoff team is misguided. The oddsmakers are establishing a betting line to attract similar action on both sides from the market. The market assessment is often wrong. The market was not on the Arizona Cardinals to upset the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s why we play the games. The Seminoles earned the right to develop their players for another month after beating all of their previous opponents. Instead, the playoff committee started guessing despite their lack of expertise in the matter. This guessing is what was unfair about their process. The unfortunate element for the Florida State football team is that the college football playoff committee lacks the expertise to make the educated guess that it conducted. Cynical observers are left wondering if their higher calling all along was simply television ratings. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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The Houston Rockets Defensive Turnaround

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

The Houston Rockets were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season. By allowing 118.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions, the Rockets ranked 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. It was the fourth straight season where they had a bottom-four defense when measured by efficiency. With Houston beginning the second phase of their rebuild under general manager Rafael Stone, improving their play on defense was a high priority. Stone hired former Boston Celtics head coach Ime Udoka who oversaw a significant improvement in the play of the Celtics on the defensive end of the court in 2021-22 before being suspended from the team last year for his off-the-court scandal. With those issues behind him with a new start in Houston, Udoka was given the mandate to establish a new culture. Stone made two big splashes in the free agent market to help establish this new defensive identity. Fred VanVleet was signed for a three-year $130 million contract. Not only does VanVleet bring a championship pedigree from Toronto, but he is also one of the better on-the-ball defenders in the league. Stone also inked a four-year $86 million contract to wing defender Dillon Brooks who was selected to the all-defensive second team last year. Brooks prides himself on his defensive play which is an attitude that Udoka hopes is infectious to the core group of young players on the roster like Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, and Alperen Sengun. The improvement in defense has been immediate and dramatic. The Rockets are holding their opponents to 109.7 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field. Their opponents are making only 32.5% of their 3-point shots, which is the best mark in the NBA. They rank sixth in the league by allowing just 111.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions this season, an improvement of more than seven adjusted points against their defensive efficiency of last season. Houston’s strong play on the defensive end of the court has been even more pronounced when they are playing at home. In their seventeen games at home, the Rockets are holding their opponents to 43.8% shooting from the field with these teams averaging just 105.1 points per game. Opponents are making just 31.0% of their 3-point attempts when playing in Houston, ranking as the second lowest mark in the NBA to Minnesota when taking home courts into account. The Rockets do a good job of controlling their defensive glass. Led by Sengun who is undergoing a breakout season, Houston limits their opponents to rebounding 28.1% of their missed shots. That mark is tied with New Orleans for the tenth-best in the league. Udoka is not emphasizing forcing turnovers. Houston is only forcing turnovers in 13.5% of their opponent's possessions, ranking 19th in the NBA. Instead, Udoka's approach is to prioritize making things difficult for their opponent to take good shots. Houston ranks second in the NBA with an opponent's effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. Houston's efforts on defense have taken a step back as of late with Indiana, Phoenix, and Philadelphia all scoring 123 or more points against them with each of those teams making 52.3% or more of their shots against them despite all three of those games being played in Houston. Not having Brooks for those games as he nurses an abdominal injury should be considered when looking at these recent results. Those are three of the best offenses in the NBA as well. The Pacers lead the league in offensive efficiency and the 76ers rank third in offensive efficiency. The Suns rank eleventh in offensive efficiency yet should climb in those rankings with Bradley Beal back on the court. The Rockets have held five opponents to under 100 points this season. Once Brooks gets back on the court, Houston will hold more opponents to less than 100 points. Yet despite their improved defense, the market is well aware since only sixteen of their thirty games have finished under the number. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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The Foolish and the Folly: Guessing Motivation in Bowl Games

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

If I had a nickel for every time I heard or read something to the effect of “handicapping college football bowl games is all about assessing motivation”, this would already be my most profitable college football bowl season in history. I need to expunge just how monumentally ineffective and ill-advised this approach is.   First, if there is an apparent “motivational mismatch” in a bowl game, the books already take this into account. This is a simple concept yet it is overwhelming and cannot be understated. If and when oddsmakers perceive that coaching changes, opt-outs, or transfer portal entries will impact the way the market will respond to the possible motivational shifts in the game, they move the number. For a bettor to hope to claim an edge regarding the motivation intangible, their argument would need to be something like “the current line does not adequately assess the motivational differences between these teams, even relative to the talent discrepancies.” We bet numbers, not teams.In a vast majority of cases, those lacking this awareness will base their warrant for backing a side on a motivational angle that the books already priced into their number. Simply reasserting the rationale without accounting for the line movement is, in practice, counter-productive. This is like betting against a team simply because their starting quarterback is injured. Yep — and the books moved the line!The second reason why assessing motivations is Fool’s Gold is that it is pure guesswork. What’s the evidence for one team being more motivated than the other? If it starts with “I don’t think …”, then put on your big shoes to go along with your red nose and flower on your lapel that squirts water because you are a clown. One of the reasons that it is clown reasoning is that there is not any evidence to back it up. If you are guessing, then you are losing. A monkey may have correctly guessed a coin flip landing heads five times in a row, but let the noise settle. Betting without evidence is the surest way to lose all your money. Deploying critical thinking in assessing actionable evidence is hard — but doing it correctly leads to profits. If the guessing aspect was bad enough, the fact that a handicapper/bettor can never understand and appreciate what is in the hearts and minds of the players in question should ward off thoughtful individuals from even attempting to embark on these paths. Bluntly, sometimes players and coaches become motivated simply because they are being told they have nothing in which to be motivated. The “lack of motivation” cries may actually help light the fire of motivation. Just for fun, I am going to review the previous bowl games this year to identify and expose when the conventional wisdom motivational narrative got upended by actual results. Arizona Bowl: Wyoming controlled the motivational angle with their long-time head coach Craig Bohl retiring after the game — and they were playing a Toledo team shellshocked after getting upset in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game by Miami (OH). The market pushed the Cowboys to be a 4.5-point favorite — and while Wyoming scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 16-15 victory, it was those holding Rockets tickets that went to the window. Orange Bowl: It was Florida State that had something to prove after getting snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee — and why would Georgia care about playing an undermanned Seminoles team after winning two straight National Championships? Of course, Florida State was missing nearly two dozen players from opt-outs to the transfer portal — but that should have been yet another reason to forego advancing a motivation argument. After their 63-3 victory, it looked like the Bulldogs were motivated to send a message that they should have made the playoffs. Music City Bowl: How motivated was Maryland given all their players in the transfer portal and with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa opting out of the game? Apparently, the dudes getting playing opportunities now like quarterback Billy Edwards were quite inspired to play well. The Terrapins upset an Auburn team “motivated to rebound their heartbreaking loss to Alabama in the Iron Bowl and attract recruits in Nashville” by a 31-13 score. The above are just the first three games from yesterday. We can do this for every game. It’s just so dumb. But, guessing about motivation is one way to disguise that one’s betting/handicapping is an evidence-optional endeavor. So, there's that. Given this, how should bettors handicap bowl games? The same way they handicap every other football and sporting event: with evidence that provides insight relative to the betting line. But isn't this even more difficult given all the opt-outs and players that enter the transfer portal? Yep -- and I find myself passing in more and more bowl games as they become treated as preseason games for the next college football season. I also find myself passing on more and more NFL preseason games when depth rotations become more unpredictable as more and first and second stringers do not play. Uncertainty is a reason to pass. Evidence is the shining light, and preferably lots of it.Best of luck — Frank.

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The Philadelphia Eagles -- Overrated or Battle-Tested and Resilient?

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

When the Philadelphia Eagles traveled to Seattle to play the Seahawks on Monday Night Football on December 18th, their 10-3 record at the time was belied by some historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there had been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and the Eagles ranked 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. Philly’s defense was simply getting pounded. They had allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary was giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third-down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third-down pass plays was last in the league. They were also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone.Despite being road favorites in the field goal range, Philadelphia got upset in that game by a 20-17 score. We were on the Seahawks in that game with our 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year. As I concluded in handicapping the Eagles’ Super Bowl showdown with Kansas City, I considered their stout defensive numbers last season to be largely a product of their soft schedule. I wrote this after my deep dive on them for my preseason prep:“How good was the Eagles defense actually last season? They ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason.”In hindsight, the loss of those five starters has played a role in the decline in their defensive numbers. The loss of defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon should not be underestimated as well. And certainly playing the potent San Francisco offense in their out-of-divisional schedule along with quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, and Kirk Cousins was an upgrade in terms of offensive competition. Since that loss to the Seahawks, the Eagles held off the New York Giants by a 33-25 score before getting upset at home to Arizona in Gannon’s return to Lincoln Financial Field as the Cardinals head coach. The loss to Arizona has risked them winning the NFC East and hosting a  playoff game in the wild-card round. They seem to have taken a step back.But bettors should be careful in simply thinking the Eagles are overrated now. Perhaps they were overrated last season — but their playoff experience does leave them more battle-tested now. From that perspective, their eight victories decided by one-scoring possession may be the by-product of a veteran and confident team knowing their best performances need to take place in the postseason. Successful handicapping requires assessing numbers rather than teams — but Philadelphia may offer some intriguing opportunities in early 2024.Best of luck — Frank.

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Italy Serie A Futures (2023/24 Season Updated)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

The Winter transfer window is approaching in January which also marks the midway point in the season for Serie A. This is the time when teams take a real good look at themselves and decide whether they need to buy players to improve and make a push for top of the table or if it is better to sell players and accept their spot in the middle of the pack. Either way, the 2nd half of the season can look very different than the 1st half so now it is time to see which teams are shaping up to be real title contenders and which ones are just pretenders. To Win Outright Inter Milan -400: Inter Milan is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the favorite to win the title according to the oddsmakers. They are currently sitting in 1st place in the Serie A table with 45 points through 18 matches this season. They have the best defense in the league right now with only 8 goals allowed in their 18 matches and their attack also leads the league with 42 goals. They had a very good season last year as they finished in 3rd place in the table and also made a very deep run in Champions League, appearing in the final against Man City. Inter Milan clearly has the best squad in Italy right now and they have been a dominant force in the league all season, but they also have just a 2 point lead over the 2nd place team and their season is going to get a lot tougher as it goes on. Inter is definitely focused on winning the league title this season but after going to the final last year, winning Champions League and having success in that competition will also be a focus for them. Inter actually lost quite a bit of their depth in the summer transfer window though and they are going to need more depth if they want to make a deep run in UCL while also competing for the Serie A Title. Inter is clearly one of the best teams in Italy this year but with Champions League also on their plate, this is a ridiculous price for them when they do not even have a large lead in the table and there is also a very strong challenger right on their tail. There is no value in Inter Milan to win the title at this price.  Juventus +333: Juventus is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Juventus is currently sitting in 2nd place in the Serie A table with 43 points through 18 matches this season. They also have a very good defense that is one of the best in the league as they have allowed just 11 goals in their 18 matches this year, ranking 2nd in Serie A behind Inter Milan. Their attack has not been as good but they still rank in the top 6 of Serie A with 27 goals scored this season. Juventus was a very interesting team last season as they finished in 7th place in the table but were also given a 10 point deduction which would have had them in 3rd place for points, tied with Inter Milan. They did finish in a Conference League spot but part of their punishment included a ban from European competition this season. It seemed harsh at the time, but this ban has been a blessing in disguise as they do not have any extra competitions to play in this year and can now focus solely on winning the Serie A Title which is something they have not in years now. Juventus also has plans to make a splash in the winter transfer window and bring in some players to boost their attack which is much needed. With most of the distractions out of the way now and plans to improve the team in January, Juventus should be the favorite to win the title this year considering the talent in their squad as well as the lack of extra competitions late in the season. There is a lot of value in Juventus winning the title this season at this price.  AC Milan +2500: AC Milan is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. AC Milan is currently sitting in 3rd place in the Serie A table with 36 points from 18 matches this season. AC Milan is a team that has struggled to keep up in the title race the last few years. They have 1 Title over the last 5 years and they are usually a team that has been finishing in the top 4, but their defense continues to be a problem area that has led to some bad results. Their potent attack has been keeping them above water but they need to make some real improvements to their defense before they can be considered as a title contender. Last season, the Serie A Title race got away from everyone very quickly as Napoli was so dominant and led the whole season with a large margin. AC Milan is already 9 points behind the leaders and they also managed to salvage their year in Europe by dropping down to Europa League so they are going to have a winnable competition that will be distracting them late in the season. AC Milan is not one of the top teams in Italy right now and the way that it looks, it is going to be a 2 horse race for the title this season as the top 2 continue to pull away from everyone else. AC Milan has no value at this price to win the Serie A Title this season.  Fiorentina +15000: Fiorentina is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Fiorentina is currently sitting in 4th place in the Serie A table with 33 points through 18 matches this season. They are already 12 points behind the leaders and they have been a team that has struggled to even make it into the top 4 in recent years. They deserve an honorable mention here since they have added some very good talent to improve their squad this season, but they do not have a real chance at winning the title. Fiorentina also went to the finals of the Conference League last season, losing in the finals, but they are once again in the competition and will be focused on winning that. Fiorentina is more likely to finish outside of the top 4 come the end of the season than winning the title. There is no value in Fiorentina at this price. RecommendationAccording to the books, the Serie A Title race has pretty much been settled with Inter Milan being the huge -400 favorite, but in reality, Juventus has just as good a chance as Inter Milan does to win the title this season. Juventus has a quality squad with a defense that can rival the current league leaders and they also have the added bonus of no extra matches and competitions to worry about while Inter Milan will be looking to make another deep run in Champions League which will end up stretching their squad thin by the end of the season. Juventus is focused on winning the Serie A Title this season after falling out of favor the last few years and especially after the punishments they received from the federation last season which kept them from having a successful season being in Europe this year as well. All the value is with Juventus at this price as this title race is far from over in Italy. Juventus to win the title at +333 has the best value here. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/31/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Week 17 of the NFL regular season concludes with 14 games. Ten NFL games kick off at 1 PM ET. The Los Angeles Rams travel to New York to play the Giants as a 6-point road favorite, with the total set at 43.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The San Francisco 49ers play in Washington against the Commanders as a 14-point road favorite with an over/under of 49.5. The Indianapolis Colts are at home against the Las Vegas Raiders as a 4-point favorite with a total of 42.5. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Arizona Cardinals as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 48. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play at home against the New Orleans Saints as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 42. The Chicago Bears are at home against the Atlanta Falcons as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 38. The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Carolina Panthers as a 4-point favorite with a total of 36.5. The Baltimore Ravens play at home against the Miami Dolphins as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. The Houston Texans are at home against the Tennessee Titans as a 4-point favorite with a total of 44. The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 40. The Seattle Seahawks play at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:05 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. Two more NFL games start at 4:25 PM ET. The Kansas City Chiefs are at home against the Cincinnati Bengals as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. The Denver Broncos host the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 37. The Minnesota Vikings play at home against the Green Bay Packers on NBC at 8:15 PM ET for Sunday Night Football. The Vikings are a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Atlanta Hawks travel to Washington to play the Wizards at 3:10 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 252.5. Three more NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Lakers play in New Orleans against the Pelicans. The Oklahoma City Thunder are at home against the Brooklyn Nets as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 237.5. The Boston Celtics are in San Antonio to play the Spurs as a 13-point road favorite with a total of 238.5. Two games complete the NBA card at 8:10 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies host the Sacramento Kings as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 236.5. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the Orlando Magic as a 6-point favorite with a total of 230. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. The Minnesota Wild are at home against the Winnipeg Jets at 2:07 PM ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Boston Bruins visit Detroit to play the Red Wings at 5:07 PM ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 PM ET. The Ottawa Senators host the Buffalo Sabres as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Pittsburgh Penguins play at home against the New York Islanders as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning are at home against the Montreal Canadiens at 7:07 PM ET as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Four more games complete the NHL card at 8:07 PM ET. The Edmonton Oilers travel to Anaheim to play the Ducks as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Calgary Flames host the Philadelphia Flyers as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -395 money-line favor with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -380 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has 27 games involving Division I teams. None of these games are on national television. Matchweek 20 in the English Premier League continues with two matches at 9 AM ET. Arsenal plays at Fulham as a -1 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Tottenham hosts Bournemouth on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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Big Al's NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Dec 31, 2023

As we close out the 2023 calendar year, the attention of many sports bettors will start to shift from football to basketball.  Of course, I've been focused on hoops since October (I'm 142-99-3 this basketball season), but a lot of bettors will wait for the football schedule to thin out before playing basketball.The NBA is about 40% through its regular season, and it's been an entertaining season.  There are many upstart teams in the Western Conference looking to dethrone the Denver Nuggets, including the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Eastern Conference, though, is being dominated by the usual suspects -- Boston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.This season, scoring is way up, with the Indiana Pacers averaging 126 ppg, and Memphis at the bottom with "only" 107.2 ppg.  Overall, there are six teams averaging north of 120 ppg (Indiana, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Boston).  With higher scoring comes greater variance with regard to the point spread.  This season, the average final score has been 10.0 points away from the point spread, which is in line with the last several years.  Another by-product of higher scores is a greater number of blowouts.  And there have been 25 games so far decided by 30+ points, which is also similar to recent seasons.Here are the point spread differential data for the last 7 NBA seasons (with the number of 30-point blowouts in parentheses).2023-24:  10.0 point differential (25)2022-23:  9.76 point differential (46)2021-22:  10.64 point differential (79)2020-21:  10.69 point differential (59)2019-20:  9.87 point differential (40)2018-19:  9.92 point differential (56)2017-18:  9.44 point differential (40)And, to put this data into context, here are the numbers for 10, 20 and 30 seasons ago.2013-14:  9.18 point differential (39)2003-04:  8.80 point differential (23)1993-94 8.95 point differential (47)All of this background leads us to our NBA System of the Week.  What we want to do is:Play on any favorite with revenge from a loss by 30+ points earlier in the season.  Since 1990, this revenge angle has gone 113-91-2 ATS (55.3%).  Today, there is one play:  New Orleans -5.5 over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Earlier this month, the Pelicans and Lakers matched-up in Las Vegas, in the In-Season Tournament semi-finals.  Los Angeles blew out New Orleans, 133-89.  With revenge from that 44-point pasting on their minds, look for New Orleans to exact some revenge this evening.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie.   

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England Premier League Futures (2023/24 Season Updated)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Saturday, Dec 30, 2023

The Winter transfer window is approaching in January which also marks the midway point in the season for the Premier League. This is the time when teams take a real good look at themselves and decide whether they need to buy players to improve and make a push for top of the table or if it is better to sell players and accept their spot in the middle of the pack. Either way, the 2nd half of the Premier League can look very different than the 1st half so now it is time to see which teams are shaping up to be real title contenders and which ones are just pretenders. To Win Outright Manchester City -138: Man City is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the favorite to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Man City are the defending champions of the Premier League Title as well as being the Treble Champions last year and they were also just crowned champions of the world after winning the Club World Cup. They are currently sitting in 3rd place in the Premier League table with 40 points through 19 matches this season. Recently they have been surging into January between all the competitions they have been playing in, but all of these extra competitions can really take a toll later on in the season. Man City actually lost quite a bit of talent and depth in the summer transfer window and they do not have many plans to make a splash in the winter transfer window either. They still have a very good squad with some of the best talent in the Premier League, but their depth has been running thin for a while and with another deep run into Champions League on the horizon, Man City is going to start taking a hit in some of these competitions as we get deeper into the season. Manchester City has a very good squad but there are plenty of good quality squads in the Premier League this season and at this current price, there is no real value in Man City winning the title this year as it is going to be a very tough road for them to repeat.  Liverpool +275: Liverpool is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Liverpool is currently sitting in 1st place in the Premier League table with 42 points through 19 matches. Liverpool has had a very potent attack going back to last season as they have scored a lot of goals, but a big reason for their success this season has been the improvement on defense. Their defense was awful last season as they conceded a lot of goals and were very sloppy but they did not do much in the summer transfer window to improve their defense either. Instead, they focused on bringing in midfielders to stabilize the mess they had last season and it has paid off as it not only fixed the flow of their attack and their ability to generate more meaningful scoring chances, but it also fixed their effort on defense with more organization. Liverpool also missed out on Champions League last season due to their performance in the league. They did qualify for Europa League but that will give them a bit of an advantage in the title race since they will be facing much lesser competition on their path to the finals if they can get there. They also have a lot of quality depth to get them through both competitions late in the season and the Premier League Title is definitely a big point of focus for Liverpool this season. Liverpool is in a great position right now at the top of the table going into the January transfer window and they have the talent in their squad to hold onto that lead in the 2nd half of the year. There is a lot of value in Liverpool to win the title at this price.  Arsenal +400: Arsenal is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal is currently sitting in 4th place in the Premier League table with 40 points from 19 matches this season. They were a team last season that was fighting for the Premier League Title and leading the table every step of the way until a very late collapse in the final weeks of the season. They have one of the better defenses in the league this season as they are one of the few teams averaging under 1 goal allowed per match this season. Their defense has carried them a long way this season but their attack has been letting them down. They have missed quite a few opportunities this season in matches where they were the dominant team but failed to capitalize on scoring chances. That is something that is going to come back to bite them later in the season, especially the deeper they go in Champions League. Last season was huge for Arsenal, not only because they finally put together a good squad that is worthy of competing for the title after so many years of darkness, but last season also marked their return to Champions League this year. They performed very well in the Champions League group stage as well, but they are not a team that has a lot of good quality depth and the deeper they go into Champions League, the more their title hopes will take a hit this season. There is some value in Arsenal winning the title at this price since they do have a very good quality squad, but with Champions League matches as well as their attacking struggles this season, Arsenal will likely fall short of the Premier League Title once again. Aston Villa +2500: Aston Villa is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Aston Villa is currently sitting in 2nd place of the Premier League table with 42 points through 20 matches this season. Aston Villa was a team that was really on the rise near the end of last season as they were surging up the table, finishing in a Conference League spot, and they also have one of the better home records in the Premier League over the last calendar year. Unai Emery has been a big reason for their turnaround as they have done nothing but improve since he took over the team last season. They also have plans to bring in more players in the winter transfer window and strengthen key areas of the team that have been struggling. Their away form in the league has not been nearly as good but these moves could help improve that defense which is what they need to make a title push. They already have one of the strongest attacks in the Premier League as well as they are number 2 in the league for goals scored, 2 goals less than Man City who lead the league. Aston Villa also has an advantage playing in Conference League as they will not be facing very strong teams deeper in the competition which will be helpful late in the season when making a title push simultaneously. Aston Villa has a very good quality squad that is only going to get better as the season goes on and they have shown over the last calendar year that they are a real threat in the Premier League under Unai Emery. There is a lot of value in Aston Villa winning the title at this price as they have the squad to do so and are in the position right now, they are the dark horse to win it all this year. Tottenham +5000: Tottenham is coming into the 2nd half of the season as the next team on the list to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Tottenham is currently sitting in 5th place in the Premier League with 36 points through 19 matches this season. They have had a lot of changes this season with the departure of Harry Kane in the summer and the hiring of their new manager Ange Postecoglou. Tottenham showed a lot of promise at the start of the season as Postecoglou really galvanized this attack and they were the best in the league at one point early on. They ended up hitting a rough stretch during the season which took them out of the title race and they have not been able to recover from that rough stretch as a lot of their key players have picked up injuries. Losing James Madison was a big loss to the team and they are slowly starting to find their groove again without these key pieces, but it may be too late for them this year. When healthy, this Tottenham squad has the potential to be the best team in the Premier League and they are going to be a very dangerous threat in the title race next season, but as for this season, there are just too many good teams in the league around them to make up for the points they have lost and they will not be able to keep pace in this season’s title race. There is no real value in Tottenham at this price.  RecommendationsThere are plenty of good teams in the Premier League this season as there is a lot more parity at the top of the table than there has been the last few years. January is a great time for these teams to evaluate where they are at and make a push for the title but as of right now, there are 2 very clear choices who have the most value in winning the title this season. Liverpool at +275 has a lot of value considering the squad they have and where they are in the table going into the 2nd half of the season while Aston Villa at +2500 is a great dark horse to win with their squad and their position in the table as well. Liverpool at +275 and Aston Villa at +2500 are the best options at this point in the season for teams to lift the Premier League Title this year.

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CFP Player Prop Considerations – Texas vs. Washington

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Dec 30, 2023

Monday’s CFP semifinal between Texas and Washington is expected to be the much higher scoring contest of the two semifinals with a total in the 60s. Which players are likely to make the most of the opportunity? Below is a look at five player prop considerations for the Sugar Bowl to close Monday’s New Year’s Day bowl schedule.  Michael Penix, Jr. UNDER 313.5 Passing Yards Michael Penix, Jr. topped 400 yards in each of his three non-conference games to start the season but he averaged just 289 yards per game in Washington’s 10-0 run through the Pac-12. He did get to 319 in the Pac-12 Championship against Oregon but was held to 304 or fewer yards six times in Pac-12 play. Penix completed nearly 66 percent of his passes for the season but was held below 58 percent in four of his final six games despite Washington maintaining its perfect record. Texas allowed 241 passing yards per game but often playing with the lead in the Big XII contributed. Alabama had just 255 passing yards against Texas while Oklahoma had only 285 against Texas for the two best comparison games.  Quinn Ewers OVER 288.5 Passing Yards Washington ranked 121st nationally, allowing 263 passing yards per game this season as the Huskies can be described as a bend-but-don’t-break defense. Ewers posted 452 passing yards in the statement win in the Big XII Championship and averaged 287 yards per game, even with an outlier 131-yard performance against Wyoming early in the season. He had 349 yards vs. Alabama and 346 yards vs. Oklahoma as Texas was pass-heavy behind Ewers in the biggest games of the season.  Dillon Johnson OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards Sometimes overlooked in Washington’s success, the Huskies leaned on Johnson more and more late in the season. He didn’t have more than 20 carries in any of the team’s first seven games but had 21 or more in four of the final five games, including a 28 carry game for 152 rushing yards in the Pac-12 Championship. Johnson had only three runs longer than 30 yards all season as his total figures haven’t been skewed upward with a few big plays and he has reached 82 or more yards in eight of his past nine games. Texas has an elite run defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry this season, but Washington will have opportunities to selectively run the ball in this game. Texas was outrushed in their two biggest games against Alabama and Oklahoma this season including allowing 201 rushing yards in the loss to the Sooners.  Ja’Tavion Sanders UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards The Texas tight end had eight catches for 105 yards in the Big XII Championship win but he has been held to 37 or fewer yards in six of the past nine games. He did have a big game in the win over Alabama but after having three catches of 44 or more yards in the first three games of the season, his long reception the rest of the way was only 26 yards. Sanders has also been held to two or fewer catches in six different games this season. His blocking will be needed in this game and while a few throws will certainly go his way, big play gains have been uncommon for Sanders in recent weeks.  Rome Odunze OVER 97.5 Receiving Yards The favorite target for Penix, Odunze had had at least five catches in 12 of 13 games this season and has had a catch of at least 30 yards in eight different games. He had 16 catches for 230 yards in the two wins over Oregon and has topped 100 yards nine times this season. While he will certainly have the attention of the Texas defense, he will also be the go-to option for Penix under duress as the tallest option in the receiving corps. Odunze will be targeted down the field often, having averaged 17.6 yards per reception this season. If a game state occurs where the underdog Huskies are trailing, Odunze will be the lead option in the hurry-up and could pad his yardage total in the 4th quarter. 

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CFP Player Prop Considerations – Alabama vs. Michigan

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Dec 30, 2023

Monday’s CFP semifinal between Alabama and Michigan features a spread below a field goal and should be the one of the most watched games in college football history given the stakes and the controversy surrounding Alabama’s inclusion and Michigan’s many headlines this season. Here is a look at six player prop considerations for Monday’s Rose Bowl.   J.J. McCarthy UNDER 189.5 Passing Yards McCarthy has not topped 148 yards in any of his past four games as the competition stiffened down the stretch. In the wins over Penn State and Ohio State, McCarthy completed a combined total of only 23 passes. After McCarthy allowed two interceptions to be returned for touchdowns in last season’s 51-45 loss to TCU in the CFP semifinal, Michigan is likely going to be cautious in the passing game unless they fall behind significantly. This is also statistically Alabama’s worst run defense per game and per carry since 2019 as Michigan’s game plan will start with the ground attack.  Jalen Milroe UNDER 198.5 Passing Yards Milroe has averaged only 14 completions per game this season and only once had more than 17 completions in a game. He did top 200 passing yards seven times, but reached only 192 in the SEC Championship against Georgia and that included 57 yards on the 4th quarter touchdown drive that put Alabama up by 10 points with fewer than six minutes remaining. Michigan allowed just over 152 passing yards per game this season and allowing 271 yards to Kyle McCord in the Ohio State game was driven by the game state with Michigan up by double-digits in portions of that contest.  Blake Corum OVER 83.5 Rushing Yards  Alabama’s run defense was not quite at its typical elite level for the season, and while the Tide held Georgia to just 78 rushing yards in the SEC Championship, a 17-7 halftime lead changed Georgia’s approach. The Bulldogs also weren’t as strong in the ground game as the past two seasons. Corum barely reached 1,000 yards rushing this season compared to amassing over 1,400 rushing yards last season, but Michigan kept his carries in check early in the season. Down the stretch in his final three regular season games against quality competition Corum got the ball 76 times and posted 327 rushing yards for an average of 109 yards per game. He had only 52 yards in the Big Ten Championship game but given the shutout result, not much was needed from the offense.  Donovan Edwards UNDER 30.5 Rushing Yards Edwards has been the change-of-pace back for Michigan and he had huge performances last season filling in against Ohio State, and in the Big Ten Championship against Purdue. He also had 119 yards in the CFP semifinal against TCU with Corum injured. Edwards averaged just 29 yards per game rushing this season and posted only 3.5 yards per carry despite often getting the ball in advantageous unconventional rushing situations. Edwards could have a role in the passing game but likely won’t have many designed runs in this contest.  Jalen Milroe UNDER 33.5 Rushing Yards Milroe had two 100 yard rushing games this season in big spots against LSU and Auburn but he had just 29 rushing yards against Georgia. Since returning to the starting role Milroe was held below 30 rushing yards in six of 10 games. Sacks are likely to occur in this contest as even if Milroe has a few successful scrambles, his end-game total could be modest with this figure likely a bit elevated from where it should project as the OVER will be a popular look.  Jermaine Burton UNDER 50.5 Receiving Yards Burton had the most receiving yards on the Alabama team this season at 777, but he had only 35 catches and was a boom-or-bust option. His 9-catch 197-yard game against Texas A&M was an extreme outlier that amount shifts his season figures dramatically as he didn’t have more than four catches in any other game. Burton is a big play threat, but Michigan has allowed just 153 passing yards per game this season and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Burton totaled only 28 yards vs. Georgia and only 29 yards vs. LSU in recent high-stakes games. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/30/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 30, 2023

The Saturday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Week 17 of the NFL regular season continues with one game. The Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions on ABC and ESPN at 8:15 PM ET. The Cowboys are a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 52 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The college football bowl season continues with four games. Penn State plays Mississippi on ESPN at noon ET in the Peach Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The Nittany Lions are a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 50. Auburn battles Maryland on ABC at 2 PM ET in the Music City Bowl at the Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Tigers are a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. Georgia faces Florida State on ESPN at 4 PM ET in the Orange Bowl at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Bulldogs are a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Wyoming goes against Toledo on The CW at 4:30 PM ET in the Arizona Bowl at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Miami Heat travel to Utah to play the Jazz at 5:10 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Toronto Raptors play in Detroit against the Pistons at 6:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 230.5. The Indiana Pacers are at home against the New York Knicks at 7:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 247. Two NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Philadelphia 76ers as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 222.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Dallas Mavericks at 8:40 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 240.5. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. The Winnipeg Jets are at home against the Minnesota Wild at 2:07 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Buffalo Sabres host the Columbus Blue Jackets at 5:07 PM ET as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 7. Six more NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Boston Bruins play at home against the New Jersey Devils as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Florida Panthers are at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins host the St. Louis Blues as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the New York Rangers as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Carolina Hurricanes as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Nashville Predators visit Washington to play the Capitals, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Kings host the Edmonton Oilers at 10:07 PM ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has 11 games on national television. Two NCAAB games tip off at noon ET. Syracuse plays at home against Pittsburgh on The CW as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 148. St. John’s battles Hofstra on FS1 at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Florida is at home against Quinnipiac on ESPNU at 1 PM ET as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 160. Four nationally televised NCAAB games start at 2 PM ET. Marquette hosts Creighton on CBS as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 151.5. Duke plays at home against Queens University on The CW as a 27-point favorite with a total of 158.5. Wake Forest is at home against Virginia Tech on ESPN2 as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 144. Michigan State hosts Indiana State on FS1 as a 9-point favorite with a total of 151. Three NCAAB games are on national television at 4 PM ET. Kansas faces Wichita State on ESPN2 at T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City, Missouri, as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 146. Oregon plays at home against UCLA on CBS as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 136.5. DePaul is at home against Chicago State on FS1 as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 135. Ohio State battles West Virginia on Fox at 7 PM ET at the Rocket Mortgage Field House in Cleveland, Ohio, as a 10-point favorite with a total of 146. Matchweek 20 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Chelsea travels to Luton Town on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Four more EPL matches begin at 10 AM ET. Aston Villa hosts Burnley as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Crystal Palace plays at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City is at home against Sheffield United as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Everton plays at Wolverhampton on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match-up with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester United is at Nottingham Forest on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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