Big Ten Basketball Early Season Snapshot

The Big Ten schedule features an early December snapshot with most teams playing two games before the holiday break and the resumption of the conference season in January. We’ve learned some things in non-conference play the past few weeks, here is a quick look at a few standouts from the Big Ten and what to expect in the early season conference preview games. 

The Favorite – Purdue: Matt Painter and Purdue made it to the national title game in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and appear to be on pace for an excellent season again. The 6-0 start includes five top 150 wins including notable wins away from home against Alabama and Texas Tech. Beating the Red Raiders by 30 last week in the Bahamas was an eye-opening result to display the potential of this team. A non-conference game with Iowa State lurks in early December while Purdue will also face Auburn later in the month. The two early season conference games are not likely to change the course of the hot start for the Boilermakers as one of the top ranked teams in the country, as Purdue faces Rutgers and Minnesota in December, with those two teams currently projected at the bottom of the league. Purdue has a favorable league schedule facing most of the current top teams in the conference once each as this should be considered the most likely team to finish on top of the standings. 

Emerging Power – Michigan: Dusty May’s first season in Ann Arbor was a success with 27 wins and a Sweet 16 run after he took over a team that went 8-24 in 2023-24. This year’s team has proven even greater potential with a terrific collection of non-conference wins. Michigan has not played a game outside the nation’s top 200 in a 7-0 start and has four top 50 wins including an amazing trip to Las Vegas that produced blowout wins over Auburn and Gonzaga ahead of Thanksgiving. Next on the schedule is the Big Ten opener with Rutgers that may not prove much, before a non-conference test with Villanova, and then a more impactful contest with the Big Ten road opener at Maryland. May has used the transfer portal to reload this roster and so far, everything is working. A look ahead reveals a difficult closing run in the conference slate with road games against Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa plus the home finale vs. Michigan State all in the final five Big Ten games as this group does have the potential to slip just before the postseason, even if an undefeated run may continue well into 2026. 

Usual Suspects – Michigan State: Tom Izzo continues to thrive at Michigan State as the Spartans won the Big Ten regular season title last season before making the Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament for another strong campaign. A big November win over Kentucky grabbed headlines for the Spartans in a 6-0 start but that perfect record may not last long. On Thanksgiving Day Michigan State faces North Carolina in Florida and the Spartans will host Duke in a high-profile non-conference game in early December. Michigan State also has a difficult Big Ten opener next week hosting Iowa before the conference road opener at Penn State in mid-December. Michigan State’s conference path is backloaded once the Big Ten slate picks up. By the end of January the Spartans should be one of the conference leaders but then will face Michigan twice, plus Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and UCLA all in the final 10 games of the conference season for a daunting closing path that may knock the Spartans off the top rung of the standings. 

Prove It Game Illinois vs. Ohio State: A key early season game to sort out a few possible Big Ten threats will be Ohio State hosting Illinois December 9 in one of the more prominent games on the early season Big Ten conference snapshot schedule. Ohio State is 6-0 in the second season under Jake Diebler looking to bounce back after a mediocre 17-15 season. The non-conference schedule hasn’t provided much meaningful data for the Buckeyes however as the 6-0 start includes just one top 100 opponent with a one-point win for the Buckeyes hosting Notre Dame. Illinois has gone 12-8 or better in five of the past six Big Ten seasons for Brad Underwood. This year’s team has split two prominent non-conference games, beating Texas Tech but losing to Alabama in a pair of close games. Illinois also has upcoming tests vs. Connecticut and Tennessee to try to add more weight to the non-conference resume before a tricky conference opener in Columbus that could show whether the Illini are a top-tier team in the conference or not. 

Sleeper - USC: Eric Musselman made two Elite 8s while coaching at Arkansas before being hired at USC ahead of last season. His first season with the Trojans as the program moved to the Big Ten had some ups-and-downs with a few notable wins but a struggle late in the season, sliding to 7-13 in Big Ten play. Expectations were grounded to start this season, but USC has compiled a solid 7-0 start. There isn’t a signature win in that ledger, but USC has five top 150 wins and three top 100 wins, beating major conference teams Seton Hall and Arizona State in a 3-0 trip to Hawaii in late November tournament action. USC will face former Pac-12 rivals Oregon and Washington to open the Big Ten campaign, and it won’t be a shock if the Trojans can reach 13-0 before heading to Ann Arbor and East Lansing in back-to-back early January road tests. 

Transition Teams – Indiana & Iowa: In coaching change seasons Indiana and Iowa have both delivered perfect starts to the season. Darian DeVries had a great run at Drake before one season at West Virginia. The roster has been compiled with mostly smaller conference transfers for the Hoosiers, but early season wins over Marquette and Kansas State offer some credibility. Indiana will be expected to start 2-0 in Big Ten play in December but will also face a couple of heavyweight non-conference tests that are likely to test the perfect start. Ben McCollum took over Drake last season when DeVries left for Morgantown and went 31-4 including a NCAA Tournament win. McCollum’s roster at Iowa also includes several small conference transfers as well and has offered a dramatic change of pace from Fran McCaffery’s Iowa teams. So far it is working with Iowa 7-0 including two top 100 wins in non-conference play. Iowa will have a headline-making opportunity opening the Big Ten season at Michigan State next week.