by Team Del Genio
Thursday, Nov 27, 2025The Kansas City Chiefs’ season hit the brink last week after their 22-19 upset loss at Denver. The setback dropped their record to 5-5. With the Broncos now at 9-2 in first place in the AFC West, it is going to be very difficult for the Chiefs to extend their streak of nine straight division titles. Yet even securing a wildcard spot is not a certainty since they have already lost to the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo, and Jacksonville who are all in the wildcard hunt as well and have the tie-breaker edge (although at least Kansas City gets a second chance against the Chargers next month.
The loss against the Broncos was their fifth setback in games decided by one-scoring possession. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl run last year was made possible by an incredible 12-0 record in games decided by eight points or less. This season, they have lost all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. The conventional wisdom is that Kansas City is finally experiencing the bad luck they were due in close games after being inexplicably lucky in those situations last year. For the record, the Chiefs had actually won seventeen games in a row in games decided by one scoring possession when going back to previous seasons before last year.
A deeper look at the numbers actually exposes that Kansas City has been unexpectedly unfortunate this season. Clutch time in football is defined when the score is within eight points or less with five minutes or less remaining in the fourth quarter. Success rate on offense is measured by gaining at least 40% of the yards of the required yards needed on first down, 60% of the required yards to move the chains on second down, and 100% of the yards necessary for a first down on third and fourth downs. Last year, the Kansas City offense had a success rate on 43% of their downs in clutch time, ranking 14th in the NFL. They completed 57% of their passes in those situations. Those are not unreasonable numbers for an offense operated by Patrick Mahomes. Yet this season, in eleven offensive plays with five minutes or less left to go in the fourth quarter in a game within one scoring possession, Mahomes has completed only 2 of 10 passes for 29 yards. When accounting for a sack and a delay of game penalty, the Chiefs have gained only 13 net yards in their 11 offensive plays from scrimmage in clutch time this season.
That statistic seems to be the true outlier. Andy Reid did not forget how to call plays or manage the clock. Mahomes is at the peak of his career. His connection with Travis Kelce remains uncanny, and the future Hall of Fame tight end is in the middle of a nice bounce-back season after catching 13 balls for 91 yards last week. This strange phenomenon was on display last week when Mahomes took the field with just over four minutes left in a tie game. He threw two straight incompletions before taking a sack and giving the ball back to Denver. The Broncos would go on to win the game with a field goal.
In the past, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s group would bail the team out, yet they were seeing unusual results in clutch time. On third and fourth down with five minutes or less left in games still within one scoring possession, the Chiefs had given up six first downs on seven attempts. Quarterbacks had completed all four of those passes in those situations for 69 yards. These offenses had converted on third-and-15, third-and-14, and twice on third-and-seven. Their defensive success rate of 14% (1 of 7) was tied for the worst in clutch time in the last 26 seasons. The 13 yards per play they are giving up in clutch time is tied for the seventh-worst in the NFL in the last decade.
Those statistics seemed to be the outliers, especially when there is a good case to be made that this year’s Kansas City team is better than last year’s group, despite the vastly different record. The Chiefs began week 12 averaging 25.4 points per game and 364 yards per game this year after posting 22.6 points per game and 328 yards per game averages last year. Spagnuolo’s defense was very good last year by holding their opponents to 19.2 points per game and 321 yards per game, yet this year’s unit is only giving up 18.1 points per game and 297 yards per game. The offense had not been at full strength all year, given the suspension of wide receiver Rashee Rice and the injury to Xavier Worthy early in the season. Yet both receivers were back, along with a healthy Hollywood Brown this season to join Kelce and an emerging Tyquan Thornton as a deep threat. A case can be made that this is the best set of targets in the passing game for Mahomes since the Tyreek Hill days. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons has been a steal as the last pick in the first round of the NFL draft, yet he missed a month to deal with personal family matters. He returned to action last week.
With a 5-5 record, Kansas City hosted Indianapolis in a must-win game last Sunday. They fell behind, 20-9, in the second half of that game. Yet the Chiefs demonstrated they still possessed their clutch gene by undertaking a ferocious comeback. Spagnuolo’s defense held the Colts to four straight three-and-outs in their final four possessions and limited them to just 18 total yards in those four drives. On offense, Mahomes led that unit to 231 yards in their final four drives to pull off a 23-20 victory in overtime.
Winning their first game decided by one-scoring possession probably will not put to rest the notion that Kansas City was simply lucky to win seventeen games in a row decided by one scoring possession. It probably will not convince those who concluded that losing their first five games this season, decided by one scoring possession, was the inevitable course correction, either. Yet it should have demonstrated that these things are more complicated than they seem.
Good luck - TDG.
The loss against the Broncos was their fifth setback in games decided by one-scoring possession. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl run last year was made possible by an incredible 12-0 record in games decided by eight points or less. This season, they have lost all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. The conventional wisdom is that Kansas City is finally experiencing the bad luck they were due in close games after being inexplicably lucky in those situations last year. For the record, the Chiefs had actually won seventeen games in a row in games decided by one scoring possession when going back to previous seasons before last year.
A deeper look at the numbers actually exposes that Kansas City has been unexpectedly unfortunate this season. Clutch time in football is defined when the score is within eight points or less with five minutes or less remaining in the fourth quarter. Success rate on offense is measured by gaining at least 40% of the yards of the required yards needed on first down, 60% of the required yards to move the chains on second down, and 100% of the yards necessary for a first down on third and fourth downs. Last year, the Kansas City offense had a success rate on 43% of their downs in clutch time, ranking 14th in the NFL. They completed 57% of their passes in those situations. Those are not unreasonable numbers for an offense operated by Patrick Mahomes. Yet this season, in eleven offensive plays with five minutes or less left to go in the fourth quarter in a game within one scoring possession, Mahomes has completed only 2 of 10 passes for 29 yards. When accounting for a sack and a delay of game penalty, the Chiefs have gained only 13 net yards in their 11 offensive plays from scrimmage in clutch time this season.
That statistic seems to be the true outlier. Andy Reid did not forget how to call plays or manage the clock. Mahomes is at the peak of his career. His connection with Travis Kelce remains uncanny, and the future Hall of Fame tight end is in the middle of a nice bounce-back season after catching 13 balls for 91 yards last week. This strange phenomenon was on display last week when Mahomes took the field with just over four minutes left in a tie game. He threw two straight incompletions before taking a sack and giving the ball back to Denver. The Broncos would go on to win the game with a field goal.
In the past, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s group would bail the team out, yet they were seeing unusual results in clutch time. On third and fourth down with five minutes or less left in games still within one scoring possession, the Chiefs had given up six first downs on seven attempts. Quarterbacks had completed all four of those passes in those situations for 69 yards. These offenses had converted on third-and-15, third-and-14, and twice on third-and-seven. Their defensive success rate of 14% (1 of 7) was tied for the worst in clutch time in the last 26 seasons. The 13 yards per play they are giving up in clutch time is tied for the seventh-worst in the NFL in the last decade.
Those statistics seemed to be the outliers, especially when there is a good case to be made that this year’s Kansas City team is better than last year’s group, despite the vastly different record. The Chiefs began week 12 averaging 25.4 points per game and 364 yards per game this year after posting 22.6 points per game and 328 yards per game averages last year. Spagnuolo’s defense was very good last year by holding their opponents to 19.2 points per game and 321 yards per game, yet this year’s unit is only giving up 18.1 points per game and 297 yards per game. The offense had not been at full strength all year, given the suspension of wide receiver Rashee Rice and the injury to Xavier Worthy early in the season. Yet both receivers were back, along with a healthy Hollywood Brown this season to join Kelce and an emerging Tyquan Thornton as a deep threat. A case can be made that this is the best set of targets in the passing game for Mahomes since the Tyreek Hill days. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons has been a steal as the last pick in the first round of the NFL draft, yet he missed a month to deal with personal family matters. He returned to action last week.
With a 5-5 record, Kansas City hosted Indianapolis in a must-win game last Sunday. They fell behind, 20-9, in the second half of that game. Yet the Chiefs demonstrated they still possessed their clutch gene by undertaking a ferocious comeback. Spagnuolo’s defense held the Colts to four straight three-and-outs in their final four possessions and limited them to just 18 total yards in those four drives. On offense, Mahomes led that unit to 231 yards in their final four drives to pull off a 23-20 victory in overtime.
Winning their first game decided by one-scoring possession probably will not put to rest the notion that Kansas City was simply lucky to win seventeen games in a row decided by one scoring possession. It probably will not convince those who concluded that losing their first five games this season, decided by one scoring possession, was the inevitable course correction, either. Yet it should have demonstrated that these things are more complicated than they seem.
Good luck - TDG.
