The MLS Cup is down to the Conference Finals with just 4 teams remaining. Inter Miami and New York City FC will battle it out for the Eastern Conference on Saturday, November 29, while San Diego FC and the Vancouver Whitecaps battle it out for the Western Conference on the same day. Both Conference Finals are single matches with the higher seed having home advantage, and the MLS Cup Final will be played on Saturday, December 6, with the higher seed from the full MLS league table having home advantage in that match.
MLS Cup Winner
Inter Miami +150: Inter Miami is the team with the best chance at taking home the MLS Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. Inter Miami finished in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference with 65 points from a 19-8-7 record and they also finished in 3rd place in the overall league table. They have one of the better squads in the league, led by one of the best players in the world in Messi, and this has been something that they have been building toward since he entered the league. They have come close in recent years, but everything has fallen in line this season for it to be their year. They did struggle a bit in the 1st round of the playoffs as they dropped their away match against Nashville, but they were dominant in both home matches to advance. They were also dominant in the last round as they went on the road and beat a very good Cincinnati team that actually finished higher in the table. Inter Miami has been a much stronger team at home all season though, going 1-3-3 there during the regular season, and they are going to have the home advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals. There is no Western Conference team that finished higher in the table either so Inter Miami will have home advantage in the MLS Cup Final as well if they can get there. They have had the strongest attack in the league all season with 81 goals scored in their 34 matches, the next best team in the league scoring 68. Their defense has also tightened up as they have not allowed a goal in their last 2 playoff matches. Inter Miami has the pieces to get the job done this season and this is the trophy that Messi has been chasing since joining the league. Inter Miami at +150 has a lot of value.
San Diego FC +225: San Diego FC is the team with the next best chance at taking home the MLS Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. San Diego finished the regular season in 1st place of the Western Conference with 63 points from a 19-6-9 record and they also finished in 4th place of the overall league table. San Diego is still in its inaugural season, but they have had a dominant 1st season in the MLS. They have a lot of quality in their squad and have truly made a statement in this 1st season. They were great in the 1st round of the playoffs as they kicked out Portland, winning both home matches and forcing penalties which they lost in their away match. Now they are coming off of a 1-0 win against Minnesota in the last round, but their attack was not great in the match. Their defense has been great in the playoffs as they have not allowed a goal in their last 2 matches and their defense has also been great all season, allowing 41 goals in their 34 matches. They scored 64 goals in their 34 matches as well, being very balanced this season, and they are going to have the home advantage in the Western Conference Finals. They will not have home advantage if they get to the MLS Cup, but they have also been the best away team in the league all season. They are facing Vancouver in the Western Conference Finals and that is no easy out, but they have played Vancouver twice this season and did not lose either match. They drew 1 and won 1, but they actually won the away match and drew the home match. That could be a problem here as San Diego was significantly worse at home this season at 7-5-5, so the home advantage could even work against them here. San Diego has the pieces to get to the Final, but this is still their 1st season in the league and they are going to run into some tough competition that wants it more. There is some value in San Diego FC at this price, but they are not the best option here.
Vancouver Whitecaps +250: Vancouver is the team with the next best chance at taking home the MLS Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. Vancouver finished the regular season in 2nd place in the Western Conference with 63 points from an 18-9-7 record and they also finished in 5th place in the overall league table. They had a very good attack this season that scored 66 goals in their 34 matches, and they also had the 2nd best defense in the league, allowing 38 goals in their 34 matches. They were dominant in the 1st round of the playoffs as they swept Dallas in 2 matches, winning 3-0 at home and beating them in penalties away from home after a 1-1 draw. They also knocked out a heavy hitter in the last round as they kicked out LAFC, but they won at home in penalties after a 2-2 draw, and they had a late 2-0 lead in that match which they blew. Their defense has not played as well recently with 3 goals allowed in their last 2 matches and that could get them into trouble here being away from home. They were 8-5-4 away from home this season which was still one of the better away records in the league this season, but they are up against a San Diego side in the Western Conference Finals that will be able to match their defensive play. Vancouver also played against San Diego twice this season and did not win either match. They drew the away match in San Diego, but this is going to be a very tough match for them to get through and they could have an even tougher opponent waiting for them in the Final with no home advantage for the rest of the playoffs either, unless NYCFC makes the Final. Vancouver has been a very good team this season, but they have potentially 2 very tough teams standing in their way so there is not a lot of value in them at this price with all things considered.
New York City FC +800: New York City FC is the team with the next best chance at taking home the MLS Cup this season, according to the oddsmakers. NYCFC finished the regular season in 5th place of the Eastern Conference with 56 points from a 17-5-12 record and they also finished in 9th place in the overall league table. They had a good defense this season that allowed 44 goals in their 34 matches and they were able to lean on that defense throughout these playoffs. Their attack has not been good all season though as they only scored 50 goals in their 34 matches, which is the lowest of the remaining teams, and they only scored 5 goals in all 4 of their playoff matches. They were able to knock out a higher seeded Charlotte side in the 1st round with better defense. They actually drew their only home match 0-0, losing in penalties, but won both away matches by scores of 3-1 and 1-0. They also pulled off another impressive win in the last round as they went on the road in a single match round and kicked out the Supporters’ Shield winner, the Philadelphia Union, with a 1-0 away win. They have been very impressive in the playoffs, but they were not in good form going into the playoffs and that could start to catch up to them now. They are by far the least talented team left in the playoffs and they have the best team left in the competition in front of them. NYCFC was 6-5-6 away from home this season which is not bad, but it is not a great record either and they actually allowed more goals than they scored in their 17 away matches. They do not have the home advantage in this next round and they will not have home advantage against anyone left in the playoffs. NYCFC has gone on a magical run in the playoffs, but they do not have the pieces to win the MLS Cup this season and will likely get stopped before the Final. There is no real value in NYCFC at this price.
RecommendationWith only 4 teams left in the competition, it has become very clear where the MLS Cup Final is headed. With the way each team has played this season and the quality on both sides, the MLS Cup is headed right for an Inter Miami vs San Diego FC Final. San Diego FC at +225 to win the MLS Cup is not a bad option, but the much better option would be to take San Diego FC to reach the Final at -138. San Diego has a very good team that certainly has the quality to win it all in their 1st ever season, but that is still a very tough feat to accomplish and everything is pointing toward this being Messi’s year. Inter Miami made a statement in the last round with a 4-0 away win over the 2nd best team in the league during the regular season. Inter Miami at +150 to win the MLS Cup is the best option as it is finally their year to do it.
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