by Nelly's Sports
Thursday, Nov 27, 2025The defending champion Thunder are off to a dominant start and should be expected to run away with the Western Conference lead in the regular season barring a major injury situation. There is a crowded pack of contenders behind the Thunder in the early season standings but not even a quarter of the way through the season, the schedules can be quite unbalanced. Here is a look at the next five teams in the current postseason picture and an assessment of the credibility of the start for these Western Conference contenders.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers (13-4): The Lakers were the #3 seed in the Western Conference standings last season, but they wound up on top of a group of seven teams between 50-32 and 48-34 for an incredibly tight pack. Los Angeles made a big splash mid-season with the Luka Doncic trade, but the Lakers ultimately exited the playoffs quickly losing in five games to Minnesota. Doncic has averaged 35 points a game while Austin Reaves has made the leap to an All-Star level to carry the Lakers early in the season. LeBron James has only played three games so far as this group could have a very high ceiling. The Lakers are 8-2 on the road this season but the average scoring differential for the Lakers is just +3.5, seventh best in the Western Conference. The strength of schedule has also been mediocre so far, producing two wins vs. Minnesota to avenge last year’s playoff exit but losing games with Golden State and Oklahoma City by double-digit margins. While this is a likely playoff team with the potential to shine in a short-series format, this doesn’t look like a team that will finish in second place in the West.
#3 Denver Nuggets (13-4): Denver led the West in the 2022-23 NBA season and then delivered an NBA championship. The Nuggets haven’t reached the same pace since and made the stunning move to fire Michael Malone with six games remaining in the regular season last April. Denver has strong scoring numbers in a 13-4 start that includes a 7-2 road record this season and 11 wins vs. fellow Western Conference teams. David Adelman’s team has not played a strong schedule, but the Nuggets are 6-1 in the toughest games including a win over Houston on the road in late November. The only loss against the top half of the league was the season opening overtime loss at Golden State. Denver’s schedule is rather favorable in December as the Nuggets could emerge as the #2 team in the conference in the coming weeks before hitting a brutal seven-game road trip bridging the 2025 calendar to 2026 as that upcoming east coast trip could take a toll. Denver still has four games remaining with Oklahoma City as well as the Nuggets are most likely to land right where they are in the end.
#4 Houston Rockets (12-4): The Rockets finished as the #2 team in the Western Conference last season and this year’s team could look more than capable of that finish again. Houston has the second best average scoring differential in the NBA at this point in the season and the 12-4 record includes seven road wins and a top 10 strength of schedule. There may be some suspicion for this group in the postseason as Houston didn’t escape the opening round last season and so far in the 2025-26 schedule the Rockets haven’t performed well vs. top competition, going 2-4 vs. top 10 teams with wins over Cleveland and Orlando, but winless so far vs. top tier Western Conference teams. Kevin Durant has missed the team’s recent wins on the road over Phoenix and Golden State and Durant hasn’t shot up to the level of his career norms yet this season, as the Rockets have more potential than has been displayed so far this season.
#5 San Antonio Spurs (12-5): If there is a team in the current top six that could miss the playoffs entirely by the end of the season it is the Spurs. The scoring numbers are modest and two thirds of the wins for the Spurs have come in home games. San Antonio has just one win vs. a top 10 team so far this season and has faced one of the weakest schedules in the league at this point. Victor Wembanyama has missed five games and isn’t expected back for several more weeks and the Spurs are likely to be cautious with their young superstar’s health. The December schedule does offer some challenging games as well including back-to-back games with the Thunder towards the end of the month. Since starting 5-0, the Spurs are just 7-5 though it is worth noting that San Antonio didn’t have De’Aaron Fox early in the season with Fox and Wembanyama on the court together for only four games so far this season. If the Spurs can hold a playoff spot and have their full roster in April, this group has some potential to make a run, but holding on to a top six spot through the injuries and a stiffening schedule is going to be difficult with several quality teams chasing in the early Western Conference picture.
#6 Phoenix Suns (12-7): The Suns bottomed out last season, missing the postseason entirely with a 36-46 finish. All the key players for Phoenix missed significant time while the roster attempted a few moves that didn’t pan out. This year’s team has offered more potential even with Jalen Green only playing two games before getting injured and likely out several more weeks. Dillon Brooks has delivered a strong start to the season while Grayson Allen and Devin Booker remain elite shooters in the backcourt. Adding Mark Williams from Charlotte has also proven to be a positive addition so far as the Suns have competed well overall. Phoenix is just a .500 road team, and the +4.2 average scoring differential isn’t overly encouraging. The Suns do have 11 Western Conference wins and from starting 1-4 the Suns are 11-3 since. The schedule ranks as one of the weaker paths in the league at this point but Phoenix has two wins over San Antonio plus a win over Minnesota. Phoenix lost by 22-point margins to both Denver and Houston in the toughest tests so far, however. December will be telling about the trajectory of this team with a difficult upcoming schedule facing only top eight Western Conference teams in the next eight games.
Minnesota and Golden State will be expected to challenge for top six spots in the coming months as proven playoff teams from recent years that have had mixed results early this season. Minnesota has struggled mightily against quality teams however in the early season schedule while the Warriors have more credibility in their early season record. Portland and Memphis have shown some signs to emerge as possible upstarts at the edge of the Western Conference playoff picture as well.
