Articles

2022 Northern Illinois Huskies Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

Northern Illinois Huskies2021-22 Season Record 9-5 (6-2 MAC West) - 9-4-1 ATS - 8-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 9Defense - 9OverviewNorthern Illinois joined the MAC in 1997 and it was 13 years of some good, some bad and some in-between and then in 2010, the Huskies became the elite of the conference. They had five straight double-digit win seasons, going 57-13 over that stretch but they ended up ranked only once, in 2012 when they finished No. 22 and that has been the only time the program has finished in the AP Poll. Since then, it has been above average but last season they had their best one since those glory years, going 9-5 and winning the MAC Championship for the fourth time in 10 years as the Huskies welcomed back 19 starters and head coach Thomas Hammock could be building something really good again. They have 18 starters back this season while being ranked No. 8 in returning production yet are not the favorites (Toledo, Miami Ohio) so they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. OffenseThe offense was not great but they did enough, leaning on a rushing attack that averaged 115 more ypg than in 2020 and finished No. 5 in the country with 234.7 ypg. Leading rusher Jevyon Ducker is gone but Harrison Waylee and Antario Brown are back and last season combined for 1,112 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging a robust 6.1 ypc so there will not be a big drop off. Another reason for that is the offensive line is one of the best in the conference with a pair of All-MAC players leading the way so it will be another lethal ground game. The passing game was limited with Rocky Lombardi having a decent yet unspectacular season but that was expected with the running game what it was. There should be more balance as he has a year under his belt and he has some great weapons at his disposal with Trayvon Rudolph and Cole Tucker who combined for 1,467 yards and 10 scores. DefenseThe defense put the team in some tough spots which was the big reason there were so many close wins and a better unit would have alleviated some of the sweat. Northern Illinois finished No. 112 in total defense and No. 107 in scoring defense which was pretty bad considering it was worse than the 0-6 defense from the previous season. With the bad comes the good and that is nine starters are back so the experience alone is worth a big improvement in 2022. 17 of the top 20 tacklers were freshmen or sophomore so being thrown into the fire makes them better off going forward. All three levels have playmakers led by the linebacking corps that welcomes back Kyle Pugh who missed last season to go along with a talented group. The defensive line is big with tackle James Ester earning All-MAC honors. The secondary has three legit future stars back highlighted by leading tackler C.J. Brown at safety. 2022 Season OutlookThe fact that this team is so young and the defense was so bad is a legitimate reason that the Huskies are not favored to win the conference but does not mean it cannot happen. With so many pieces in place at the right levels, it should happen. Hammock used 2020 to rebuild as there was no fear in losing a season that was lost by so many other teams as well and now Northern Illinois is better off for it and for the foreseeable future. The Huskies open with Eastern Illinois and then are at Tulsa, at home against Vanderbilt and at Kentucky so a 2-2 nonconference record is likely although 3-1 is doable. Now the best part is Toledo and Miami Ohio come to Dekalb as well as Central Michigan and the toughest road game is at Western Michigan. The O/U win total is 6.5 and even if they happened to go 1-2 in those three MAC home games, nine wins still looks like a legitimate number. 

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2022 North Texas Mean Green Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

North Texas Mean Green2021-22 Season Record 6-7 (5-3 C-USA West) - 9-4-0 ATS - 4-8-1 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 8Defense - 5OverviewIt has been a roller coaster ride for North Texas football after bottoming out in the first decade of the 2000s. Dan McCarney brought some life into the program including a bowl game in 2013 and then he too bottomed out and current head coach Seth Littrell inherited a 1-11 team and the turn around came quick with a 19-17 record in his first three seasons but it has been three straight losing campaigns since then but last year we might have seen something that could influence this team going forward - determination. The Mean Green opened with a win over FCS Northwestern St. and then it was six straight losses. Instead of quitting on Littrell, they rallied around him by winning their last five games to become bowl eligible for the fifth time in six years. Even though North Texas lost to Miami Ohio in the Frisco Bowl, the 2021 ending can carry some confidence for a team in need. OffensePlain and simple, the offense last season was a major disappointment. After finishing 2020 ranked No. 7 in total offense, North Texas brought back 10 of those starters including quarterback Austin Aune who was ready for a breakout but instead, the Mean Green regressed by 100 ypg on offense to finish No. 30 in total offense and No. 67 in scoring offense. Aune is back but will be tested for the starting role but competition is a good thing to have. Also good to have are three excellent receivers to throw to led by Roderic Burns who had 54 catches and 715 yards. The passing numbers were down because of inaccuracy at quarterback and because the running game flourished, finishing No. 3 in the country behind DeAndre Torrey who ran for over 1,200 yards but he is gone and second leading rusher Ikaika Ragsdale takes over. Four of five starters from the offensive line return. DefenseThe defense improved enormously as the Mean Green dropped over 125 ypg from 2020 to finish No. 67 overall after ranking No. 127 the previous year. It certainly was not a great unit, yet the improvement was one of the best in the country but what goes up looks like it will come down as six starters have to be replaced and some are irreplaceable. One starter that is back is linebacker K.D. Davis who led the team with 120 tackles and he will have to carry the defense until it can all come together. Losses up front will be impossible to overcome as Gabriel and Grayson Murphy combined for 15 of the 38 team sacks and that is hard to overcome. In addition to those two, both tackles also have to be replaced to the front four looks shaky at best. The secondary has three of four starters back and will have get after the ball better as the six interceptions were tied for No. 109 in the country. 2022 Season OutlookLast year was a success even though it was a losing one based on how it transpired. Littrell is still considered a coach with a ton of upside and the second half of last season showed that as he united his team to reach down and that they did. Even if the turn around did not come, he likely would have been safe still because of the upside he possesses. That being said, this will be one of his toughest coaching tests since coming to Denton with all of the attrition and the fact the upcoming schedule is a monster. Five of the six road games are against teams .500 or better from last year and are expected to be even better. The home portion is much easier with five of the six against some poor teams so the opposite of this home/road slate would have been ideal. The O/U win total is 6.5 and that looks to be right where it should be as it will take an upset or two on the road to get over this number. 

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2022 North Carolina Tar Heels Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

North Carolina Tar Heels2021-22 Season Record 6-7 (3-5 ACC Central) - 5-8-0 ATS - 7-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 5Defense - 8OverviewThree straight bowl games, including an Orange Bowl, would be the envy of many teams and that is what North Carolina has accomplished the last three seasons but it was way below what was expected. The Tar Heels were loaded with at least 16 starters back but something bad went wrong each year that was inexplicable and the underachieving settled in. It is not back to the drawing board for head coach Mack Brown as he has a very good team but nothing special although this is when teams can perform their best with less pressure. This is his fourth season in his second go-around with the program after closing out his first run going 54-18 from 1992-1997 and they hope those glory days can return after posting just one double-digit win season since 1998. 13 starters are back and the returning production ranking is No. 75 but a third straight top 15 recruiting class spikes optimism. OffenseOffense was not the issue among many bad things that led to a disappointing season as the Tar Heels were No. 9 in total offense and No. 17 in scoring offense but they could not do enough at the times when the defense fell off. Quarterback Sam Howell had a very good season but after two exceptional campaigns, it was not good enough as he ran more than he should have which limited his passing. Three players will be competing to take over as Jacolby Criswell, Drake Maye, and Conner Harrell all have something to bring but nothing to stand out to make each a true No. 1. The running game was great with Howell and leading rusher Ty Chandler but their 1,920 yards will be tough to replace. The offensive line has to replace four starters although there is good experience. Wide receiver Josh Downs caught 101 passes for 1,125 yards and he absolutely needs to get the ball again.  Defense10 starters were back from a defense that was average in 2020, ranked No. 56 overall but great things were expected and it bottomed out, allowing 34 or more points in 8 of their last 11 games and finishing No. 87 in total defense and No. 101 in scoring defense. The good news is that eight starters are back with great experience but last year has to be let go. The strength should in the secondary with all four players possessing talent, experience and room for growth and good depth behind them. The linebackers are led by Cedric Gray who was the top tackler last season with 96 and will again be the core with solid talent around him. The defensive line did not do enough to cause disruption and the likely absence of Tomari Fox is huge as he has been suspended for the season barring a late miracle. The exterior on the line now has to find someone at least half as good. 2022 Season OutlookBrown knows how to win but he has always been scrutinized for having great teams that have underperformed and looking at this program, that can be said for 2019, 2020 and 2021. He can coach these kids up and as long as the offense can maintain some sort of consistency and be able to put up points, the defense will eventually take over with the hire of Gene Chizik overlooking the unit. A good season is still expected but a great one is also possible if it can all come together. They open at home against Florida A&M and will be tested at Appalachian St. the following week before another easy game and then Notre Dame comes to town. Of the four ACC road games, Miami and Wake Forest will be tough while Pittsburgh and NC State are the tough home games. And yes, no Clemson. The O/U win total is set at 7.5 which is about right so this looks to be a pass either way. 

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2022 New Mexico St. Aggies Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

New Mexico St. Aggies2021-22 Season Record 2-10 (N/A) - 7-5-0 ATS - 7-5-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 3Defense - 9OverviewWhile some teams such as Massachusetts and Connecticut are in the running for the worst football programs in the country, New Mexico St. takes the cake if looking more long term. There was a winning season in 2017 in the Aggies final season in the Sun Belt Conference where it went 7-6 and since 2003, they have gone a staggering 54-157 and that 2017 Arizona Bowl has been their only one since 1960. They have not been able to find a home as they have been an Independent twice, including currently, to go along with a couple stints in the SBC and an eight-year run in the WAC. The good news is, great news actually, is that Jerry Kill is on the sidelines once again after numerous health problems took him from coaching for a few years after being at Minnesota but came back as an interim coach at TCU last year. The hope is a great pedigree will bring some sort of turnaround. OffenseThe offense has remained relatively ineffective over the last few years and last season, New Mexico St. finished No. 90 in total offense and No. 104 in scoring offense and those are boosted from a huge performance against Massachusetts in the season finale. The Aggies are pretty much starting over here and that is not a bad thing as they have only three starters back which is part of the No. 129 ranked returning production offense. Kill is in place to turn around a running game that averaged 100.4 ypg, which was No. 104 in the country, and having lost its leading rusher, the Aggies turn to a pair of transplants to get it going. The offensive line is the most experienced group where those three starters return so this is a good building block. Quarterback is up in the air with a few players vying for the starting job who will be throwing to basically a brand new receiving corps. DefenseIf you can call it a strength, the defense should be just that this season with nine starters back and a returning production ranking of No. 32. Last season was a disaster as the Aggies were No. 126 in total defense and No. 128 in scoring defense but the experience should pay off with some major improvements showing. The linebackers are in great shape as Trevor Brohard and Chris Ojoh, who combined for 144 tackles, eight sacks and four forced fumbles, are back in the middle to shore up a bad rushing defense and improve the pass rush around them that was No. 112 in the nation with 18 sacks. Donovan King was second in sacks with 2.5 and he will anchor a defensive line that is big and experienced. The passing defense was second to last in efficiency but should be much better with a pair of excellent returning corners and safety help coming through the transfer portal. 2022 Season OutlookOf all the new 2022 coaching hires, Kill has to be near the top of the list. He succeeded at Northern Illinois and had Minnesota going in a positive direction before seizure problems forced him to take time off but he came back as an assistant at Rutgers, Virginia Tech and TCU and now looks to give the Aggies a positive push. This team will be better across the board but how that turns into wins is still to be determined. The early portion of the schedule could not be much worse for a young team trying to find an identity as they open with five games against bowl teams from last season but there is a stretch of four straight home games in September/October and then dates with Lamar and Massachusetts late in the season. The O/U win total is set at 3 and the arrival of Kill is good for at least one upset but it is hard to back the over with a lot of unknowns still. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 08/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Colorado Rockies visit the San Diego Padres in the opening game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET. Ryan Feltner takes the ball for the Rockies to pitch against Yu Darvish for the Padres. The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds at 6:40 PM ET. The Marlins give the ball to Braxton Garrett to pitch against the Reds’ Graham Ashcraft. Miami is a -130 money line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. New York travels to Washington with Jacob DeGrom coming off the disabled list to pitch for the Mets against Cory Abbott for the Nationals. The Mets are a -295 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. New York plays at home against Seattle with the Yankees tapping Jameson Taillon to pitch against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. The Yankees are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee is at Pittsburgh with Corbin Burnes taking the mound for the Brewers to pitch against Bryse Wilson for the Pirates. The Brewers are a -255 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. Toronto travels to Tampa Bay to play with the Blue Jays turning to Kevin Gausman to battle against the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen. The Blue Jays are a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Cleveland plays at home against Arizona with Triston McKenzie on the mound for the Guardians against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. The Guardians are a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:20 PM ET. Spencer Strider gets the ball for the Braves to pitch against Nick Nelson for the Phillies. Atlanta is a -225 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 7:40 PM ET. The Twins turn to Chris Archer in their starting rotation to pitch against the Tigers’ Matt Manning. Minnesota is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:45 PM ET. Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cardinals against Keegan Thompson for the Cubs. St. Louis is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Texas Rangers host the Baltimore Orioles at 8:05 PM ET. The Rangers tap Spencer Howard in their starting rotation to pitch against the Orioles’ Jordan Lyles. Texas is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago plays at home against Kansas City with Lucas Giolito pitching for the White Sox against Brady Keller for the Royals. The White Sox are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. Houston hosts Boston with the Astros tapping Cristian Javier to battle against the Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. The Astros are a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the Angels to duel against Cole Irvin for the A’s. Los Angeles is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit San Francisco to play the Giants on TBS at 9:45 PM ET. The Dodgers turn to Tyler Anderson in their starting rotation to pitch against the Giants’ Alex Wood. Los Angeles is a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Rockies play against the Padres in the nightcap of their doubleheader at 10:10 PM ET. Jose Urena pitches for Colorado against Reiss Knehr for the Padres. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 08/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Aug 01, 2022

The Monday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has ten games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds travel to Miami to play the Marlins at 6:40 PM ET. Hunter Greene takes the mound for the Reds to pitch against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Marlins. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. New York plays at Washington with the Mets turning to Max Scherzer to duel against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. The Mets are a -230 money line road favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings). New York is at home against Seattle, with Domingo German taking the ball for the Yankees against Marco Gonzales for the Mariners. The Yankees are a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The Cleveland Guardians host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:10 PM ET. The Guardians tap Cal Quantrill as their starting pitcher to face the Diamondbacks’ Zach Davies. The Detroit Tigers travel to Minnesota to play the Twins at 7:40 PM ET. Tarik Skubal gets the pitching assignment for the Tigers against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Twins. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 8:05 PM ET. The Rangers turn to Jon Gray to battle against the Orioles’ Spenser Watkins. Texas is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago is at home against Kansas City, with Michael Kopech pitching for the White Sox against Brady Keller for the Royals. The White Sox are a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Houston Astros host the Boston Red Sox on ESPN in the second game that begins at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros won for the third time in their last four games with a 3-2 victory in 10 innings against Seattle on Sunday. Houston is in first place in the AL West with a 67-36 record. They are 12 games ahead of the Mariners, who reside in second place. The Red Sox had lost four of their previous five games before beating Milwaukee yesterday, 7-2. Boston is in last place in the AL East with a 51-52 record. They are 3 1/2 games behidn Tampa Bay for third wildcard spot in the American League playoff race. The Astros' Luis Garcia takes the mound to pitch against the Red Sox's Nathan Eovaldi. Houston is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.The Los Angeles Dodgers play at San Francisco against the Giants at 9:40 PM ET. Andrew Heaney takes the hill for the Dodgers to pitch against Logan Webb for the Giants. Los Angeles is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:45 PM ET. The Padres turn to Mike Clevinger to pitch against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela. San Diego is a -225 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

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Addition by Subtraction, Part One/ Could Kansas City Get Better without Tyreek Hill?

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

The Kansas City Chiefs will be learning to live life without one of the top wide receivers in the business this season. The Chiefs declined to outbid the services for Tyreek Hill who signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason. Hill caught 111 balls last year for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Adams was even better with 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At first — and second glance — it may seem absurd to suggest that the Chiefs’ offense may be better off in the long run after losing such a productive player. But, there is a case to be made. Kansas City blew a 21-3 halftime lead against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game to lose in overtime by a 27-24 score. Only scoring a field goal in the second half against the Bengals defense despite playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium is a concern. While their 28.2 Points-Per-Game scoring average and 396.8 total Yards-Per-Game tally were both ranked top-four in the league, both those marks were a decline from their 2020-21 averages. Patrick Mahomes averaged 284.6 passing YPG which was the lowest mark in his career. His 98.5 Passer Rating ranked only 10th in the NFL and was his lowest mark in his career as well. This all happened despite Mahomes playing behind a rebuilt offensive line that was much improved versus the unit that could not protect him in the 2021 Super Bowl against Tampa Bay. So, what gives?Opposing defenses began to find success against Mahomes by plying two-high safety coverages. In the copy-cat NFL, Mahomes began facing these defenses that were comfortable taking away deep balls week-after-week. Only 14.6% of the passes from Mahomes resulted in a reception of at least 15 yards, ranking 19th in the NFL. The freakish ability for Mahomes to make something about of nothing from broken plays was being taken away by these two-high safeties and dime defenses with six or more defensive backs. The play of the Chiefs defense did not help matters, especially early in the year before the club acquired Melvin Ingram for their defensive line which allowed Chris Jones to move back to his more comfortable interior of the line. Mahomes probably felt pressure to make something happen with his team trailing, but that may explain why Kansas City committed 25 turnovers which was their highest number since 2012. Mahomes has gotten very comfortable looking for Hill when he got into trouble. Hard to blame him given how great Hill is. The longer Mahomes could extend the play with his legs, the more likely the speedy Hill could find daylight and get open — and connecting on those video game plays had to be exhilarating. But the concern for many observing Mahomes was that he was too quick to abandon ship in the pocket and get into video game mode. This is where removing the temptation of what Hill offers may serve Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense in the long run. To be clear, the primary consideration for the Chiefs in not resigning Hill was the high premium he was finding on the open market that became a boon for wide receivers in the offseason. Kansas City could not afford the big contracts of Mahomes, Hill, tight end Travis Kelce while still making the moves they needed to make to improve their defense which included the need to replace three starters in the defensive backfield. But head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy have some exciting opportunities with their offense in this new era without Hill. Mahomes breakout out of the pocket should be Plan C or D, not Plan B as it became in the last few years. Reid and Bienemy want Mahomes to distribute the football quickly to receivers in space. Losing the Hill temptation helps the offense return to these fundamentals. The team has replaced Hill with several diverse talents than can help Mahomes spread the ball better than he has in the past. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a free agent signing from Green Bay who can provide the deep threat that Hill offered while adding intriguing size from his 6’4 frame. Valdes-Scantling is also an outstanding blocker. JuJu Smith-Schuster was signed from Pittsburgh to offer a reliable set of hands operating from the slot. Second-round pick Skyy Moore from Western Michigan offers the high-level route running that Hill provided. Josh Gordon remains on the roster with huge upside still if can overcome his problems off the field. Mecole Hardman Jr. is in his contract year and still has the speed that attracted them to draft him as a complement to Hill three years ago. And the number one option remains Kelce who caught 92 balls for 1125 yards with nine touchdowns last year. Reid and Bieniemy have to be confident that they can design plays that get these receivers open quickly. Rather than keying in on Hill, the Chiefs’ offense will improve if Mahomes successfully spreads the ball out more this season. Defenses will offer double-coverage against Kelce (still) but the offense has too much speed and should be able to punish that (understandable) decision. It is understandable why Mahomes began leaning on his talent. If the Kansas City offense can get back to relying first and foremost on their schemes, then they should be able to avoid blackouts like they experienced in the second half in the AFC Championship Game. Then, watch out. Best of luck — Frank.

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Addition by Subtraction, Part Two - Could Green Bay Get Better without Davante Adams?

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

In my previous post, I considered how the Kansas City Chiefs would be learning to live life without wide receiver Tyreek Hill this season. The Green Bay Packers face a similar challenge as well this year. The Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in their offseason after he requested to be moved given uncertainty regarding how much longer Aaron Rodgers plans to keep playing. Hill caught 111 balls last year for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns for the Chiefs last season. Adams was even better with 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At first — and second glance — it may seem absurd to suggest that the Chiefs and Packers’ offenses may be better off in the long run after losing such productive players. But both of these potent offenses stalled at times last year despite having elite quarterbacks and top-level weapons like Hill and Adams. These experiences last year offer an interesting comparison that just might illuminate why both organizations were comfortable moving on from two of the very best wideouts in the NFL.Green Bay lost at home in the NFC Championship Game to San Francisco by a 13-10 score despite the 49ers failing to score an offensive touchdown. It was the second-straight time that Aaron Rodgers saw his team get upset at home at Lambeau Field in the postseason. While the Packers had a 13-4 record in the regular season (while feasting on the weak NFC North competition), they only outgained their opponents by +37.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Rodgers has won two-straight Most Valuable Player Awards, but he has underachieved in the playoffs once again. Since leading Green Bay to the Super Bowl twelve years ago, Rodgers has a 7-9 record in his 16 playoff games. Firing Mike McCarthy and bringing in a head coach who had lunch once with Sean McVay was supposed to be the solution for the Packers’ offense when they hired  Matt LeFleur in 2019. But despite a 39-10 regular season record, the offense has stagnated for this team in the playoffs. In the case of the Chiefs, I argued that the allure of trying to get the ball to Hill was too intoxicating for Mahomes even when defenses overcompensated by playing two-high safety looks. I think the dynamic is similar for Rodgers when it comes to Adams, albeit for different reasons. The now 38-year-old veteran seems to have become finicky in his later years in the league. His “trust” factor with his wide receivers seems to be much higher than it is for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning back in his day who both seemed to need a few workout sessions before being comfortable in throwing the ball to (wide open) secondary targets. Of course, Brady and Manning are notorious for vigorous offseason programs designed to facilitate this trust and comfort. That’s not necessarily Rodgers’ thing. He seems to need years of experience and familiarity with his wide receivers before he develops trust. That helps explain why he drew a line in the sand last year for management to support his wishes by acquiring former Packer Randall Cobb as a free agent from Dallas despite his being on the wrong side of 30 years old. Cobb caught 28 balls for 375 yards last year. Like Mahomes being enthralled with the electric plays he connected with Hill on a frequent basis, it is easy to understand why Rodgers would key on Adams. The now-former Packer has great hands with a huge catch-radius and runs very precise routes. But when it becomes clear to everyone — including the 49ers defense and the bettors backing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game — that Rodgers is either going to throw the ball to Adams, running back, Aaron Jones, or an occasional lob to the 37-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, good defenses are capable enough to stop that. The Kansas City offense looks poised to get back to relying on schemes over talent this season. In Green Bay, the Packers will likely make a similar transition out of necessity. Like a parent hiding the video game console to get their child to do their homework, Rodgers will have to find new receivers to move the ball downfield if he wants to continue counting to throw the football in 61% of their snaps. Allen Lazard has the potential to step up as a primary option. Second-round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in college. Amari Rodgers is a second-year player from Clemson who was drafted with fanfare but only caught four balls last year. Sammy Watkins was signed as a free agent from Baltimore with still tremendous albeit unfulfilled upside. Cobb is still around, as is Jones and A.J. Dillon catching balls out of the backfield. I am more optimistic about the Kansas City offense than I am about the Packers’ offense at this early point of the season — but the Green Bay defense is significantly better than the Chiefs’ defense right now. Losing talents like Adams and Hill is tough. But in a league that is lauded for rule changes that favor offenses and with offensive coaches given so much adulation for their innate talent to draw up plays, it is surprising to observe so much skepticism regarding the prospects for both these offenses despite the likely increased reliance on schemes and fundamental play-calling this season. Best of luck — Frank.

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NFL 2022 NFC East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

NFC East Division Win Total / Preview for 2022 NFLEast:Dallas Cowboys – Current odds are 10 flat. Hard to peg this team. This article is not necessarily about projecting win totals but more so just a quick preview of each team. That said, I would have to say this one sounds about right at 10. Still the most talented roster in the NFC East, with Philly a close second, but the loss of WR Amare Cooper could hurt this season. Also, lost a starting offense lineman in La’el Collins going to Bengals.New York Giants – Current odds are 7 under. Current win total is 7 and the juice is heavy on the under which I would have to agree with going on the low side of this total. QB situation a major question mark with Daniel Jones a possible bust as a high draft pick and now journeyman Tyrod Taylor in the mix. Lost some personnel from secondary. New head coach too so a learning curve for the team. RB Saquan Barkley just can not seem to stay healthy. Giants have not won more than 6 games since the 2016 season!Philadelphia Eagles – Current odds are 9.5 over. Current win total 9.5 and the juice is heavy on the over which I would have to agree with going on the high side of this total. Philly considered to have one of the easiest schedules in the league and had the #1 rushing attack last season. That strong ground game will help the continued growth of Jalen Hurts at QB. Also helping him is the addition of WR AJ Brown. Washington Commanders – Current odds are 8 flat. The Commanders are a hard team to gauge. One even has to wonder if the off the field distractions with owner Dan Snyder are also going to hold this team back. I would say a .500 season sounds about right for this team. Carson Wentz is back in the NFC East at QB for the Commanders and how quickly some of Washington’s draft choice develop around him could be a key for this team as well. But I do not trust the defense. They struggled quite a bit last season and they need more than just a healthy Chase Young to return if they are to truly make great strides on that side of the ball. 

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NFL 2022 NFC West Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

NFC West Division Win Total/Preview for 2022 NFLWest:Arizona Cardinals – Current odds are 8.5 flat. The Cardinals slumped after a red hot first half of the season last year. This win total seems about right to me because this team still has a potent offense but the defense really lost some key guys and depth in the off-season. Perhaps the best way to look at the Cardinals is to look for overs in their games but do note that WR De’Andre Hopkins is suspended for the first 6 games of the new season. Los Angeles Rams – Current odds are 10.5 flat. I am generally down on teams coming off a Super Bowl win and, as much as I like the acquisition of LB Bobby Wagner from the Seahawks, the retirement of a key offensive linemen, LT Andrew Whitworth, does hurt the Rams on the other side of the ball. Overall the defense lost some key veteran players too so Wagner can not make up for all of them. I say it will be a challenging year for the Rams and they will struggle to surpass 10 wins. San Francisco 49ers – Current odds are 10 under. The juice is toward the under on this one and I would have to agree. A bit of a revamped offensive line and the potential that it could be a rookie QB taking the snaps behind it makes me nervous about expecting too much from this Niners team. Good management and coaching plus a still solid defense certainly helps this team but the concern on offense, in my opinion, is absolutely warranted. The key for the 49ers will be how quickly the offense can really start clicking and, to me, that is a big question mark. But with the D they have this could be a team to watch for having plenty of unders in their games. Seattle Seahawks – Current odds are 5.5 over. Some books you may see 6 posted too because the juice on the over 5.5 is quite steep. I would say 6 wins sounds about right for this Seattle team. They have fallen a long way from the big seasons the fans in Seattle had become spoiled by with about a decade of consistency. Last season was rough but this season will be rougher. Seattle lost QB Russell Wilson to the Broncos. Also, Wagner went to Rams as noted above. Additionally a top offensive lineman, Duane Brown, no longer with Seattle either. The defense really struggled last season in terms of yardage allowed and now, on the other side of the ball, a QB battle between Drew Lock and Geno Smith does not exactly bring back any memories of Russell Wilson’s glory years. Maybe 6 wins are not so attainable after all. Could be a long season in Seattle with 4 or 5 wins being the right call depending on the QB play.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

The Sunday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The first pitch is thrown at 12:05 PM ET, with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Detroit Tigers at 12:05 PM ET. Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays to pitch against the Tigers’ Garrett Hill. Toronto is a -285 money line favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). Five MLB games start at 1:35 PM ET. St. Louis travels to Washington with the Cardinals tapping Andre Pallante against the Nationals’ Josiah Gray. The Cardinals are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Philadelphia plays at Pittsburgh with Aaron Nola on the hill for the Phillies against J.T. Brubaker for the Pirates. The Phillies are a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Atlanta hosts Arizona, with the Braves turning to Max Fried in their starting rotation against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. The Braves are a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. New York is at home against Kansas City with Jordan Montgomery on the mound for the Yankees to battle Zack Greinke for the Royals. The Yankees are a -265 money line favorite with a total of 9. Milwaukee visits Boston with the Brewers pitching Aaron Ashby against the Red Sox’s Josh Winckowski. The Brewers are a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Three more MLB games begin at 1:40 PM ET. Tampa Bay hosts Cleveland with Shane McClanahan on the mound for the Rays against Bryan Shaw for the Guardians. The Rays are a -210 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. New York travels to Miami with the Mets tapping Taijuan Walker to duel against the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez. The Mets are a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Cincinnati is at home against Baltimore, with Nick Lodolo taking the hill for the Reds against Austin Voth for the Orioles. The Reds are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games start at 2:10 PM ET. Houston plays at home against Seattle, with the Astros turning to Jake Odorizzi to pitch against the Mariners’ George Kirby. The Astros are a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Chicago hosts Oakland with Dylan Cease to pitch for the White Sox against Adam Oller for the A’s. The White Sox are a -265 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET. The Dodgers turn to Tony Gonsolin to pitch against the Rockies’ German Marquez. Los Angeles is a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Texas Rangers at 4:07 PM ET. Reid Detmers takes the ball for the Angels to face Dane Dunning for the Rangers. Los Angeles is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Minnesota Twins at 4:10 PM ET. The Padres send Sean Manaea to the mound to pitch against the Twins’ Dylan Bundy. San Diego is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the San Francisco Giants host the Chicago Cubs at 7:08 PM ET. Carlos Rodon takes the ball for the Giants against Adrian Sampson for the Cubs. San Francisco is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Week 8 in the Canadian Football League concludes with the Toronto Argonauts playing at home against the Ottawa Redblacks at 5 PM ET. The Argonauts won their second straight game in a 31-21 upset victory at Saskatchewan as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Redblacks are winless in their first six games this season after their 40-33 loss to Montreal as a 2-point underdog on July 21st. Toronto is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. 

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The Giants' Underrated Starting Pitchers: Alex Wood and Alex Cobb

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

We backed the San Francisco Giants (our National League Game of the Month) in their opening game at home against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. Manager Gabe Kapler was turning to Alex Wood who had been quite good all month after finding some extra zip on his sinker. In four July starts, the lefty has a 1.31 era and a 0.87 whip. He has struck out 25 batters yet walked only three in 20 2/3 innings. Wood rewarded these observations from our research by taking a no-hitter into the 7th inning before he got into some trouble and gave up two hits including a two-run homer from the Cubs’ Patrick Wisdom. Yet Wood only gave up two hits and two runs in 6 2/3 innings to get his seventh win of the season. For the season, he now has a 7-8 record to go along with a 4.11 era and a 1.16 whip. Yet those numbers probably fail to do Wood justice for what he can do for the Giants for the rest of the season. In his five July starts, the left-hander has a 2-1 record with a 1.65 era and a 0.80.Yet Wood is not the only San Francisco starting pitcher who is pitching better than his season numbers would suggest. Kapler gave the starting pitching assignment to Alex Cobb in Game 2 of their weekend series with the Cubs. The right-hander had a 3-4 record with a 4.26 era and a 1.33 whip in fifteen starts. Cobb had been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season with a strand rate of 58.9%, far below the MLB average for runners left on base which usually hovers in the low 70% range. Yet he is seeing much better results lately. In his seven starts since the beginning of June, Cobb had a 2.82 era and a 1.17 whip. After striking out a career-high 24.9% of the batters he faced last season with the Los Angeles Angels last year, his velocity has been good this year and his strikeout rate of 22.8% is still the second-highest in his last eight seasons. Opposing hitters have a hard-hit rate of 23.3% against him which is the lowest mark in his career. In his nine starts at home at Oracle Park this year, Cobb had a 3.02 era. The 34-year-old right-hander may have pitched even better than Wood did the previous night. Cobb struck out 11 batters in his six innings of work while allowing only three hits and one run. Yet Cobb did not get any run support from his team against Chicago’s Marcus Stroman. Cobb left the game with San Francisco trailing, 1-0, before the Cubs scored three times in the top of the ninth inning. The Giants rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth yet it was not enough and Cobb took the tough luck loss. The Giants had everything go right for them last year in winning 107 games in the regular season. With a 49-51 record going into the final day in July, their management may be tempted to be sellers before the trade deadline. Yet with undervalued starting pitchers in Alex Wood and Alex Cobb joining Carlos Rodon and Logan Webb (and Jakob Junis with his 2.98 era), San Francisco might be better served by adding more bats and riding their pitching staff. With the third wildcard spot added for both leagues for the playoffs, the Giants are still only 4 1/2 games behind Philadelphia to qualify for the postseason. Good luck - TDG.

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