Articles

2022 Missouri Tigers Preview

by Matt Fargo

Thursday, Jul 28, 2022

Missouri Tigers2021-22 Season Record 6-7 (3-5 SEC East) - 4-9-0 ATS - 7-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 6Defense - 8OverviewMissouri snapped a two-year bowl absence with a trip to the Armed Forces Bowl last season and third year head coach Eli Drinkwitz will be out to string something together after several very average seasons. The Tigers joined the SEC in 2012 and after a 5-7 inaugural season, Missouri went 12-2 and 11-3 under Gary Pinkel but another 5-7 season after that was his final one. Barry Odom took over and went 25-25 in four seasons but was never able to get Missouri over the hump and in came Drinkwitz after a 12-1 season at Appalachian St. Those two seasons under Pinkel were the last two that the Tigers finished ranked in the AP Poll and they look to be on the right track. 14 starters are back with a ton of transfers to make an immediate impact and Missouri has now had two straight recruiting classes in the top 25 but this is an important year with the SEC only getting stronger. OffenseThe Missouri offense has topped 400 yards in each of the last two seasons and last season, it finished No. 59 overall and No. 55 in scoring which are average numbers and it could be better this season as long as the quarterback situation sorts itself out. The Tigers limited their turnovers as they were No. 24 in giving it up but 11 of the 13 giveaways were interceptions from Connor Bazelak who is no longer in the program and the new starter will likely not be named until late in fall camp with four players in the mix including transfer Jack Abraham and four-star recruit Sam Horn. Missouri has a better recruit at wide receiver in Luther Burden who will join a veteran group. The running game is even less settled as top back Tyler Badie and his 1,604 yards has moved on so someone has to step up right away behind an offensive line that will be moving parts around to get together. DefenseThe defense improved immensely in the passing game but could not stop the run as the Tigers improved by over 50 ypg through the air but gave up 75 more ypg on the ground from 2020. They do return eight starters and have a new defensive coordinator in place so there is potential for a big improvement. The defensive line is strong on each side but they need to shore up the interior to help improve that rushing defense that allowed a whopping 5.4 ypc and this is where Jayden Jernigan from Oklahoma St. can help right away. The linebackers are in good shape as Chad Bailey is back after starting 10 games and the real force could come from Ty'Ron Hopper who transfers in from Florida. The secondary will be the strength once again as safeties are loaded with Martez Manuel and Jaylon Carlies who combined for 144 tackles and the corners are deep. 2022 Season OutlookThere will be a lot of moving parts at most every position on both sides of the ball so it really remains a mystery how much better this team will be but the fact is they have improved player-to-player overall. While it was just one season, Drinkwitz quickly made a name for himself at Appalachian St. but he fell into a great situation that Scott Satterfield built yet he is showing what he can do, rivaling Lane Kiffin as the portal king in the SEC. The good news is that Missouri has seven home games on the schedule, but the bad news is three-fold. The five road games are all difficult matchups, the home SEC schedule includes Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas and they only have back-to-back home games once which does not come until the final two games of the season. The O/U win total is 5.5 and that number is tough to decipher with numerous unknowns and a treacherous slate. 

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2022 Mississippi St. Bulldogs Preview

by Matt Fargo

Thursday, Jul 28, 2022

Mississippi St. Bulldogs2021-22 Season Record 7-6 (4-4 SEC West) - 7-6-0 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 8Defense - 8OverviewPlaying in the SEC since its inception has had its good and bad for Mississippi St. but it has never been great. Things were looking good over a decade ago but former head coach Dan Mullin left a really good situation in Starkville to make a lateral move to Florida, which at the time looked like an upgrade, and that clearly did not work out. Eight straight seasons of a record of .500 or better playing in the SEC would be the envy of most coaches but he tossed it away and the reigns were given to Joe Morehead which was not the right fit so in came Mike Leach and things look different. The COVID season of 2020 was what it was but three losses by three points or less last season showed that this is a team on the rise only to get better. Both sides of the ball improved and while competing with Alabama in the SEC West is still a ways off, this could be the season that dictates things to come. OffenseThere was a drop off in 2020 with the offense but that year was an aberration for a lot of teams and we saw an increase of nearly 100 ypg and over a touchdown uptick last season with potentially more on the way. The Bulldogs finished No. 23 in total offense but struggled at times getting the ball in the endzone and now with eight starters back, more consistency should emerge. Quarterback Will Rogers came into his own as he completed over 75 percent of his passes for 4,739 yards with 36 touchdowns and only nine interceptions and he could be even better if there is any hint of a running game. His two top targets are gone but there is not a downgrade in wide receiver and more big plays will transpire. The offensive line has to replace both tackles but the tandem of Dillon Johnson and Jo'quavious Marks at running back showed promise despite a limited amount of carries. DefenseWhile Leach is known for the offense, the defense was great, finishing No. 22 overall and while the scoring average was higher than they would have liked, it was put in some tough situations. The stop unit also returns eight starters and there are playmakers at all levels led by the linebackers that will again be all over the field. Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson combined for 169 tackles last season and with upgrades around them, they should be even better. The rushing defense finished No. 10 in the country as the defensive line was a wall and it needs to get a bigger push into the backfield. Mississippi St. was just No. 72 in the nation in sacks and that should go up which will help the passing defense that gave up too many big plays. The safeties will have a bigger impact in the second go around in this system and the corners will show improvement via the transfer portal. 2022 Season OutlookMississippi St. was No. 9 in the country in time of possession on offense but it will gladly take a decrease in that to produce more big plays and there is a lot of depth on the defense that can withstand more time on the field. The Bulldogs have not finished ranked in the top ten since 1940 and while Mullin got them into the top 20 three times, bigger things are expected and Leach has the pieces in place to make that move. A 4-0 start to the season is feasible with a pair of home games against Memphis and Bowling Green sandwiched around road games at Arizona and LSU. The schedule ramps up with the final eight games against teams that averaged over 10 wins last season so that upward move has plenty of roadblocks. The O/U win total is set at 6.5 and seven home games helps but there looks to be only six games where they will be favored meaning upsets are necessary. 

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2022 Jim Dandy Stakes Preview

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Jul 28, 2022

As the three-year-old thoroughbred season kicks into high gear this summer, we have the most compelling and confusing situation we've had in quite some time.  If you add the Ohio Derby and Haskell into the mix along with of course the three Triple Crown Races, we have five different winners of these important 3YO Stakes.  The longshot Derby winner Rich Strike looks like a non-factor at this point, but the other four winners are serious contenders going forward with plenty of racing still to come.  Two of those four -- Early Voting (winner of the Preakness) and Tawny Port (winner of the Ohio Derby) -- are featured today in the Jim Dandy Stakes, a Grade 2 affair being contested as the ninth race on the card at Saratoga with an estimated post time of 5:37 pm. Yes, it's disappointing that only five horses are showing up for the Dandy today, and at first blush it seems like only one of the horses, #1 Western River, doesn't doesn't belong here.  So with that in mind, let's take a more detailed look at the four contenders:#2, Epicenter: The Steve Asmussen trained son of Not This Time had the Kentucky Derby seemingly in hand turning for home before 80-1 longshot Rich Strike shocked everyone and overtook him.  Epicenter then came back in the Preakness, which Rich Strike skipped, and ran second to Early Voting.  And therein lies the rub with Epicenter.  He seems to have a bad case of second-itis at this point and this is an awfully tough spot to try to break through, especially given that he hasn't been out since the Preakness.  His best chance is to stay close to the lead and try to launch a bid turning for home, but at what should be pretty short odds it's probably best to take a wait-and-see approach with him.#3, Tawny Port:  There's no trainer hotter than Brad Cox right now as he showed again when Cyberknife won the Haskell last weekend at odds of 7-1.  Cox has taken a different route with Tawny Port, a son of Pioneer of the Nile, that included the Lexington at Keeneland (which he won) only three weeks before the Ky Derby.  Tawny Port's Derby effort was much better than his 7th place finish would suggest and he then came back in late June and took the Ohio Derby over White Abarrio and Classic Causeway, who romped in his next race gate to wire.  Cox seems to know exactly what he's doing with Tawny Port, and Irad Ortiz -- who rode him to victory in the Ohio Derby -- will be back aboard today.  The odds on Tawny Port should be decent as he may be a bit overlooked.  He's a great win bet at anything 3-1 or higher.#4, Early Voting:  The Chad Brown-trained son of Gun Runner was ultra impressive in the Preakness after skipping the Derby, beating Epicenter by over a length.  He may be the controlling speed here, and so if Early Voting gets loose on the lead, he could wire this field.  You would prefer to see another race between the May 21 Preakness and this one, so if there's a knock on Early Voting, it's that he may not be in top condition here.  But you still have to like his chances today at a price, with regular rider Jose Ortiz aboard (Irad's brother, who's been having a very good Saratoga meet).  Like Tawny Port, Early Voting could offer some solid value.#5, Zandon:  He was the 'now' horse going into the first Saturday in May and he ran a huge race there, finishing third to Rich Strike and Epicenter.  But the Chad Brown-trained son of Upstart hasn't been out since that race, and that's almost three months ago, so he may very well need this race to get back to top form.  His last two workouts have been across the Saratoga dirt track that they're running on today, but the problem is that those workouts -- along with the ones he had at Belmont -- seem a little slow.  The other problem is that Zandon figures to be far back in this race -- probably last on the backstretch -- and he may not have much pace to run into.  Top jock Flavien Prat is back aboard for the ride, but at what figures to be a very short price, unless you're a big fan of this one, it's probably best to take a wait-and-see approach like Epicenter.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jul 28, 2022

The Thursday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 10 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 12:35 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at Baltimore with Ryan Yarbrough serving the opener for the Rays against Jordan Lyles for the Orioles. Cincinnati hosts Miami, with the Reds turning to Graham Ashcroft in their starting rotation to pitch against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Marlins. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. New York plays at home against Kansas City, with Jameson Taillon taking the ball for the Yankees to pitch against Brady Singer for the Royals. The Yankees are a -225 money line favorite, with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Philadelphia visits Pittsburgh with the Phillies tapping Zack Wheeler to battle against the Pirates’ Zach Thompson. The Phillies are a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two more MLB games begin at 7:07 PM ET. Toronto is at home against Detroit, with Yusei Kikuchi pitching for the Blue Jays against Tyler Alexander for the Tigers. The Blue Jays are a -215 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Cleveland travels to Boston with the Guardians turning to Triston McKenzie in their starting rotation to duel against the Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. The Guardians are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on FS1 at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros are on a three-game losing streak after losing at Oakland yesterday, 4-2. The Mariners are on a three-game winning streak with their 4-2 victory at home against Texas on Wednesday. Jose Urquidy takes the mound for Houston against Logan Gilbert for Seattle. The Astros are a -140 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. The Dodgers tap Tyler Anderson to pitch against the Rockies’ Jose Urena. Los Angeles is a -205 money line road favorite with an over/under of 12. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:38 PM ET. Shohei Ohtani takes the ball for the Angels to pitch against Spencer Howard for the Rangers. Los Angeles is a -225 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants host the Chicago Cubs at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants send Alex Wood to the mound to pitch against the Cubs’ Justin Steele. San Francisco is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.Week in the Canadian Football League kicks off with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats playing at home against the Montreal Alouettes at 7:30 PM ET. The Tiger-Cats lost for the fifth time in their six games this season in a 17-12 loss at British Columbia as a 9.5-point underdog last Thursday. The Alouettes ended a two-game losing streak with their 40-33 victory at Ottawa as a 2-point favorite last Thursday. Hamilton is a 3-point favorite with a total of 49.

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2022 Mississippi Rebels Preview

by Matt Fargo

Wednesday, Jul 27, 2022

Mississippi Rebels2021-22 Season Record 10-3 (6-2 SEC West) - 7-5-1 ATS - 3-10-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 5Defense - 7OverviewOne word that can describe Mississippi football over the last couple decades - sustainability. This is one thing that has lacked in Oxford from its coaching hires. David Cutcliffe started strong and fell off in 2004. Ed Orgeron could never get it going. Houston Nutt turned it around and then fell flat in his final two years. Hugh Freeze got it going again only to falter in 2016. Matt Luke was never the answer. Now, Lane Kiffin is in his third season with the Rebels following a 10-3 campaign that ended disappointingly with a Sugar Bowl loss to Baylor after quarterback Matt Corral sustained an injury early in the game. The other two losses were to Alabama and Auburn on the road and half of his eight losses have come to those two teams and he gets them both at home this season. There are only 12 starters back this season but it is not a bleak situation with a top notch recruiting class coming as well as loads of transfer talent entering the picture. OffenseCorral was a big part of the offense the last two seasons as he completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 6,686 yards with 49 touchdowns and 19 interceptions and his incredible career ended in a tough finish to watch. Mississippi finished No. 4 in total offense and No. 18 in scoring offense and while Corral was the main fixture, the running game was a star as well as the Rebels were No. 8 in rushing offense with nearly 225 ypg. The running game will be a complete rebuild but not from incoming freshmen or backups considering the leading returning rusher had only 78 yards but via transfers and the Rebels got two really good ones coming in with Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley, part of seven defectors for the offense. Likely taking over at quarterback is Jaxson Dart who played a decent amount at USC and should fit right in. Wide receivers are new as well as the top three are gone and the offensive line is shifting around as well. DefenseThe Rebels allowed 428.8 ypg which was No. 101 in the nation and that was close to a 100-yard improvement from the previous season showing how bad it was in 2020. They did not allow a ton of points as the were No. 54 in scoring defense with 25.0 ppg which was down by 13 ppg from last year. Now, a lot has departed but there are enough returning playmakers with solid experience along with a few additional transfers to help right away. The strength will be in the backfield as Otis Reese and A.J. Finley combined for 181 tackles at the safety spots and while depth is short at cornerback, they will be fine as long as a pass rush emerges because the Rebels lost a lot up front. Inside lineman Sam Williams was a beast with 12.5 sacks, 57 tackles and four forced fumbles but he is gone and help is on the way. The outside rush is fine with Cedrick Johnson as are the linebackers with Troy Brown coming from Central Michigan. 2022 Season OutlookKiffin gets a lot of heat for his brashness and style and he tells it like it is which makes him unique as most coaches are like robots when they speak and give their opinions. That is why players love him and it has shown throughout his coaching career as he nails down transfers that make immediate impacts and that will be the case this season. Despite only 12 starters back, this is not a rebuild but a reload. He has won nearly two-thirds of his games in his career and this is the ideal spot for him. The schedule features seven home games including Alabama and Auburn as mentioned as well as Kentucky and Mississippi St. in the SEC. Mississippi should open the season 6-0 prior to the game with Auburn which starts the brutal part of the slate with all six games against teams projected for 6.5 or more wins. The O/U win total is 7.5 so it might take some road upsets to get to that over but late in the season, those are possible. 

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2022 Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview

by Matt Fargo

Wednesday, Jul 27, 2022

Minnesota Golden Gophers2021-22 Season Record 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten West) - 8-4-1 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 6Defense - 6OverviewMinnesota football was never really a thing through the late 1990s but it has quietly become one of the most consistent programs behind the usual big boys and it has come close a few times to making that next big step only to get stuck. In 23 seasons since 1999, the Golden Gophers have had records of .500 or better 13 times including eight campaigns of eight wins or more while competing in 17 bowl games. While none of this pertains to how the prospects are for this season, it simply shows that they have made the leap into the top half of the conference and are a team that everyone else has to respect. The Gophers finished No. 10 in 2019, the highest ranking since 1962 and last season they went 9-4 that included three losses by a combined 17 points. Head coach P.J. Fleck has built something that Jerry Kill started a decade ago and there appears to be no slowing down and will be on the cusp on a preseason top 25 ranking. OffenseMinnesota struggled on offense last season as it finished No. 97 overall and No. 85 in points scored which was due to not having any sort of a consistent passing attack. The Gophers were No. 115 in passing offense but it was a much better No. 69 in passing efficiency which might be a better indicator of what to expect. Quarterback Tanner Morgan has taken a step back from his phenomenal 2019 season where he led Minnesota to an 11-2 record as he has completed just 58.9 percent of his passes for 3,418 yards with 17 touchdowns and 14 interceptions the last two years. Expect some of that 2019 magic to resurface as he has been in this system long enough and he has his top five receivers back and while none popped, there are explosive options. The Gophers running game led the way 195.2 ypg and get Mohamed Ibrahim back after rushing for over 1,000 yards in 2020 in just seven games. The offensive line is a strength again. DefenseThis is the area that Minnesota took charge as it was No. 4 in total defense, No. 9 in scoring defense, No. 9 in rushing defense and No. 10 in passing defense so there were no weaknesses across the board. The Gophers will undoubtedly take a step back this season but it should not be a big regression as the 2019 defense was nearly as good so they know how to get it done. Jack Gibbens was a force at linebacker but is now with the Tennessee Titans so it will be up to his counterpart from last season Mariano Sori-Marin who was second on the team with 85 tackles to take over the lead at inside linebacker. The defensive line is strong on the inside but it will need an upgrade with the pass rush as they had just 25 sacks, tied for No. 82 in the country, and should get it. The secondary is going to have to rely on a pair of new cornerbacks led by Justin Walley who had one interception and 28 tackles. The safeties will pick up the early slack. 2022 Season OutlookMinnesota is right in the middle of the pack to win the Big Ten and if the offense can make a move and the defense maintains itself, it could be a surprise sleeper. The schedule has both good and bad aspects to it and overall, it is probably in their favor. Overall, there are seven home games and five road games as the Gophers start the season with three consecutive nonconference home contests against New Mexico St., Western Illinois and Colorado so a 3-0 start is expected before diving into the Big Ten slate. The bad part is that five of the nine games are on the road with three of them at Michigan St., Penn St. and Wisconsin but they are spread out a month apart. Making up for that is the fact Minnesota misses Ohio St. and Michigan altogether for the second straight season. The O/U win total is 7.5 and there are enough winnable home games to get close while games at Illinois and Nebraska could be the deciding factors. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/27/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jul 27, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Atlanta Braves visit the Philadelphia Phillies at 12:35 PM ET. Charlie Morton takes the ball for the Braves against Kyle Gibson for the Phillies. Atlanta is a -155 money line road favorite with the total set at 8.5. The San Diego Padres play at Detroit against the Tigers, with the Padres turning to Yu Darvish to pitch against the Tigers Tarik Skubal. San Diego is a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. Milwaukee is at home against Minnesota with Corbin Burnes taking the ball for the Brewers against Chris Archer for the Twins. The Brewers are a -200 money line favorite with a total of 8. Kansas City hosts Los Angeles with Brad Keller pitching for the Royals against Janson Junk for the Angels. The Royals are a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games start at 3:10 PM ET. Los Angeles is at home against Washington, with Andrew Heaney taking the mound for the Dodgers against Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. The Dodgers are a -275 money line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 9. Chicago plays at Colorado with the White Sox turning to Lucas Giolito as their starting pitcher against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela. The White Sox are a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Houston Astros visit the Oakland A’s at 3:37 PM ET. Cristian Javier takes the hill for the Astros against Cole Irvin for the A’s. Houston is a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Two MLB games begin at 3:40 PM ET. San Francisco travels to Arizona with the Giants tapping Logan Webb to duel against the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen. The Giants are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Texas plays at Seattle with Jon Gray pitching for the Rangers against the Marco Gonzales for the Mariners. The Cincinnati Reds host the Miami Marlins at 6:40 PM ET. The Reds tap Luis Castillo to take the mound against the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett. Cincinnati is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles at 7:05 PM ET. Drew Rasmussen takes the hill for the Rays to duel against Tyler Wells for the Orioles. Tampa Bay is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays turn to Kevin Gausman in their starting rotation to pitch against the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright. Toronto is a -245 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two games conclude the MLB card at 7:10 PM ET. Boston plays at home against Cleveland, with Nathan Eovaldi taking the mound for the Red Sox against Cal Quantrill for the Guardians. The Red Sox are a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The New York Yankees play across town against the New York Mets, with the Yankees pitching Domingo German against the Mets Max Scherzer. 

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2022 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Jul 26, 2022

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders2021-22 Season Record 7-6 (4-4 C-USA East) - 7-6-0 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 5Defense - 6OverviewHead coach Rick Stockstill has been at Middle Tennessee for 16 seasons which is a very long time for a coach to still be around with a career record of only three games over .500 in that span. The Blue Raiders have just one double-digit winning season and have not won more than eight games besides that and the results are invites to nine mid-to-low tiered bowl games. But he enters his 17th season with the program and the final one in the current C-USA format as more teams are leaving next season and more coming in making a total new look next season. After having 20 starters return last season, only 11 come back this season so it will be a little more challenging especially considering their No. 108 ranking in returning production. 2019 was the last season they had half or fewer of their starters returning and that resulted in a 4-8 season and that is something that has to be avoided this year. OffenseThe Middle Tennessee offense was below average last season as it was ranked No. 100 overall and the rushing game was nonexistent as it was No. 110, averaging a mere 120.8 ypg on 3.5 ypc. The leading rusher gained only 372 yards and he is gone so someone has to step up and it could be Frank Peasant who was third on the team with 239 yards but managed only 3.7 ypc or it could be a young player to emerge. Quarterback Chase Cunningham was progressing nicely with 1,318 yards passing and 16 touchdowns with only three interceptions but he got hurt in the eighth game and was done for the season. He now has to hold off Nicholas Vattiato who finished pretty strong in relief. There are numerous receiving options but none that jump off the chart so it could be another season of spreading the ball around after nine players caught a touchdown pass. The offensive line stunk and now has to replace four starters. DefenseThe Blue Raiders were better on defense and that is what kept them afloat. They held seven opponents to 24 points or less and to no surprise, they went 6-1 in those games and they are going to need another above average performance and one that is more consistent. Middle Tennessee improved by over 70 ypg and 10 ppg from the previous season which was due to being No. 1 in the country in takeaways and that is something that cannot be counted on again. The strength of the defense is going to be up front as all four players from the defensive line are back including sack leader Jordan Ferguson who got to the opposing quarterback six times and was part of the all-around group that finished tied for No. 30 in tackles for loss. That backend is in trouble with the four top tacklers gone including linebacker Reed Blankenship who did it all in the middle. Five replacements back here will have to step up in a hurry. 2022 Season OutlookBy the looks of things, it looks like another average season for Middle Tennessee as nothing jumps out as something that can carry this team if other areas break down. Essentially, every level on both sides will have to improve as the Blue Raiders were No. 53 or worse in seven of the eight major stat categories. Stockstill is a beloved asset to this program so he is not on the hotseat unless something utterly horrible happens but another bowl game will at least keep him around. The schedule is not in their favor as the Blue Raiders have seven road games including nonconference games at James Madison, Colorado St. and Miami Florida and they have to go to UAB in their toughest road conference test. Playing UTSA and Western Kentucky at home is a decent break. The O/U win total is set at 5.5 and while it is low, finding four or five sure wins is difficult enough, let alone six as a 2-5 road record looks about right. 

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NFL - 3 WIN TOTALS

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Jul 26, 2022

Packers - Over 11 winsGreen Bay has won 13 games for three straight seasons since Matt LaFleur took over head coaching duties in 2019. That regular season consistency has been met with just as much playoff inconsistency, leading to disappointing finishes each year. The lack of playoff success is a major reason why people seem to forget that the Packers still have the back to back NFL MVP. Aaron Rodgers became the starter in 2008, since then, Green Bay has won 10 or more games in 8 of 12 seasons. Obviously, the loss of Davante Adams changes the offense completely, yet LaFleur has shown the ability to scheme other players open in Adams absence. Since 2019 the Packers are actually 7-0 without the All-Pro WR. In a soft division, with a relatively easy strength of schedule (22nd), and a much improved defense, we expect Green Bay to surpass 11 wins.  Rams - Under 10.5 winsFresh off bringing a Super Bowl to Los Angeles, the Rams get rewarded with the toughest schedule in the NFL. Looking through their 2022 opponents, it is difficult to find more than five games that the Rams should clearly win. They play ATL, CAR, NO, and get SEA twice. Outside of those games, they play the entire AFC West, then mix in the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, along with four games against the Cards and 49ers. Matt Stafford and Sean McVay are one for one so far together but they sure do have their work cut out for them in 2022. GM Les Snead has been able to pull off the “going all in” mentality while still maintaining long term success and somehow remaining under the salary cap. The downside to giving up picks is a lack of depth and youth. LA will rely on veterans to play key roles throughout their 17 week trek, and could leave them susceptible to dropping a few close games.  Texans - Over 4.5 wins Houston has the lowest win total heading into the NFL season, and this is not a bad thing. When teams fail to prepare, thinking they have a free win for the week, it leads to trap games that the Texans can possibly win. The fact that they play the Jaguars twice is also a plus when trying to think how Houston can get to five wins. Davis Mills leads the offense and had a surprisingly pleasant end to his rookie campaign. A second year always helps the game slow down and there is positive buzz that he could be the longterm guy in Houston. It feels this team is trending in the right direction with a strong draft class in 2022 that will only improve from their four wins in 2021.

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2022 Michigan St. Spartans Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Jul 26, 2022

Michigan St. Spartans2021-22 Season Record 11-2 (7-2 Big Ten East) - 9-2-2 ATS - 7-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 5Defense - 9OverviewIs Sparty back? After not being ranked for three straight seasons, Michigan St. went 11-2 and closed at No. 9 in the final AP poll. Former head coach Mark Dantonio did something his predecessor John Smith could not accomplish and that was get Michigan St. into the upper echelon of college football as he put together six double-digit win seasons and put the Spartans into the final AP top ten poll three times but a pair of 7-6 campaigns in 2018 and 2019 did him in. While Mel Tucker went just 2-5 in his first season, it was not a good indicator for many teams during the COVID shortened season and with 17 returning starters, he took advantage and let everyone know that Michigan St. is back, at least for one year. Everything went their way as statistically, there is no way they should have won 11 games with the numbers they put up but maybe that is a good sign yet luck can change quickly especially in this conference. OffenseThe offense put up some solid numbers last season as the Spartans were No. 42 in total offense, averaging 431.3 ypg and No. 40 in scoring offense, putting up 31.9 ppg and those averages were up over 100 ypg and 14 ppg from the previous season. That was with 10 starters back and Michigan St. has to work with half of that total this season so there could be a drop off. The running game led the way behind Kenneth Walker III who rushed for 1,636 yards and scored 18 touchdowns but he is now in the NFL and the Spartans are likely going to have to rely on a pair of transfers to carry the load. Quarterback Payton Thorne was excellent as he threw for 3,233 yards with 27 touchdowns and just nine interceptions but we will have to see how he performs without a stud running back. He has two of his top three receivers back and while pass protection was outstanding, three starters on the offensive line have to be replaced. DefenseWhat the hell happened to the Michigan St. defense last season? The Spartans finished No. 116 in total defense but only bent for the majority of the time as they were a more respectable No. 61 in points allowed. What was a weakness in 2021 needs to be the strength this season to carry the offense early on that has to adjust. Nine starters are back and for the talent that is in place, this is a good thing despite the rough numbers last year. Some of it did not make sense as the Spartans were tied for the seventh most sacks in the country but were dead last in passing yards allowed. What? The secondary is a year older and added talent from the transfer portal so it has no choice but to be better and it has to be a lot. The pass rush will be close to the same as the defensive line is strong even though they lose the two top sack leaders. Help is coming in to mold with the veterans and the linebacking crew will again cause havoc. 2022 Season OutlookIt really is mindboggling how a team can be so bad on one side of the ball yet win so many games and seven were by double-digits. Michigan St. caught some teams in the right scheduling situations and also faced some teams missing key players that it took advantage of. This cannot happen again and seeing that Tucker comes from a defensive background, that unit should have a big turnaround to make up for a possible lethargic early season offense. They will not hit 11 wins again but should be above the .500 mark. A pair of home games against the MAC starts the season and then they hit the road in a tough spot at Washington. The early Big Ten slate is brutal with improved Maryland and Minnesota and then Ohio St., Wisconsin and Michigan back-to-back-to back but the first two are home. The O/U win total is 7.5 and we see six most likely wins so there are some swing games that will determine how that total pans out. 

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Tracking Starting Pitchers' Success During Final Stretch is Important

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Jul 26, 2022

As we approach the final stretch of the MLB season, it's important to zero in on pitchers who can give us the best bang for our buck.I'm not a huge advocate of listing pitchers on every wager. I've always been of the opinion when specific systems leave pitchers out of the equation, you have to insist on "action only."Other times, it makes sense to list the pitchers. But who are the right ones?I researched starting pitchers during a 30-day span (June 26-July 25), honing in on starters with an ERA below 2.50 combined with an opponent's batting average less than .200, provided the pitchers have thrown a minimum of 20 innings.Chicago White Sox's Dylan Cease, Miami's Sandy Alcantara, Arizona's Merrill Kelly, Cleveland's Triston McKenzie, and Houston's Jose Urquidy have been the stingiest starting pitchers in that span, with a combined 1.64 ERA and an opponent's batting average of .170.And allow me to point out, these guys are lasting an average of 6 2/3 innings per outing, which is imperative to also apply to your handicapping when looking at these pitchers. After all, it's important to know a heavily priced team has a starting pitcher with the durability to last late into games so they can neutralize lineups.Here is a closer look at each one (L30 Days): Cease (5-1, 0.74 ERA, .182 OBA) - Forget 30 days, over his last 11 starts, the right-hander is 6-2 with a grubby 0.42 ERA, while the White Sox are 9-2 in those games. Teams are hitting a meager .179 against him and he's registered strikes with 61% of his pitches. He also has a 2.7-to-1 strikeout ratio, with 83 strikeouts vs. 30 walks. BE WARY: if he faces the Red Sox, as he's 0-1 in two starts with a 9.00 ERA against them this season. Alcantara (2-1, 1.42 ERA, .164 OBA) - The Miami right-hander has allowed more than two earned runs just twice this season and is sporting a ridiculous 1.81 ERA in 20 starts this season. Teams have a paltry .187 batting average against him, while he has a very stingy 3.6-to-1 strikeout ratio, with 133 strikeouts vs. 36 walks. BE WARY: in Interleague play, as he's 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two starts this season and 4-7 with a 3.33 ERA lifetime in 16 career starts. Kelly (4-0, 1.57 ERA, .175 OBA) - After rough months in May and June, the Snakes' right-hander has been lights out in July with a 4-0 mark in five starts and a 1.57 ERA. He's limiting lineups to a .175 batting average and a .214 on-base percentage. He's also done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs. BE WARY: against the Dodgers, who have beaten him in all three of his starts against them (0-3, 9.69). McKenzie (3-0, 2.20 ERA, .184 OBA) - After an atrocious June that saw the Guardians' righty hammered to the tune of a 6.44 ERA, McKenzie has allowed just one earned run in July and is 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA. He's shut down the Yankees, Royals, Tigers, and Chisox, holding them to a combined .146 batting average and allowed 0 HRs. BE WARY: when he faces the Twins, as he's 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three starts against them. Urquidy (3-0, 2.43 ERA, .149 OBA) - Houston's right-hander has been spotty at times, but he's durable and has a decent lineup backing him up. Since June 21, spanning his last six starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and has quieted hitters to a .153 batting average and .210 on-base percentage. BE WARY: when he faces the Mariners, as he's 1-3 with a 7.58 ERA against them.

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2022 Michigan Wolverines Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Jul 26, 2022

Michigan Wolverines2021-22 Season Record 12-2 (8-1 Big Ten East) - 11-3-0 ATS - 7-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 9Defense - 4OverviewIt was a special season for Michigan that won its most games since winning a National Championship in 1997 and snapped an eight-game losing streak to rival Ohio St. to secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship and eventually, the College Football Playoff. The question begs are the Wolverines back to their elite status from years ago or was last season just a one-off and they will come back down to earth? The answer is no one really knows. The nasty defense from last season is no more as all seven starters lost went to the NFL so now it will be up to the offense to carry them. Michigan finished last season ranked in the AP top ten for the first time since 2006 as the typical scenario was being ranked in the top ten early and falling flat late. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has done a very good job in getting Michigan back to playing at a high level with four double-digit win seasons now we will see if he can keep it going. OffenseThe offense was exceptional last season as Michigan finished No. 20 in total offense and No. 13 in scoring offense behind nine returning starters and the Wolverines get the same amount back this season and have the No. 13 ranked returning production offense. Quarterback Cade McNamara was very efficient but did not put up monster numbers as he had only 2,576 yards and 15 touchdowns and he will have to get the ball down field more that is if he wins the starting job as it is open with J.J. McCarthy right in the mix. Leading receiver Cornelius Johnson returns while top target from 2020 Ronnie Bell is back after missing last season and there is plenty of depth. The offensive line was the best in the Big Ten as the pass protection was spot on and helped lead the No. 10 rushing attack but there are pieces to replace. Also being replaced is leading rusher Hassan Haskins but backup Blake Corum ran for 952 yards. DefenseThis will be interesting. Losing talent that Michigan has to replace will be a challenge after finishing No. 11 in total defense and No. 4 in scoring defense. The Wolverines were stout in both areas coming in at No. 22 in passing defense and No. 21 in rushing defense and there are pieces in place to be really good but nothing like last season. The defensive line has to replace star Aidan Hutchinson and his 14 sacks which accounted for over 40 percent of the team sacks but the interior remains in place to stuff the run. Another big loss is linebacker David Ojabo who had 11 sacks and five forced fumbles but two starters return for this unit that will be expected to improve the pass rush that was average overall, ranking No. 53 in team sacks. Top tackler and interceptions leader from the secondary Dax Hill along with second leading tackler Brad Hawkins have to be replaced and while there is experience, there is not that "it" guy yet. 2022 Season OutlookThe 2021 season was excellent in a lot of ways and one intangible that should not be overlooked is that Harbaugh got the Buckeyes monkey off his back and there will be less pressure on him going forward. His commitment is still scrutinized as his name pops up every year surrounding coaching gigs in the NFL but he has stayed put, at least for now. No one ever took Michigan lightly but this year will be even more so. A lot of elite programs schedule top caliber nonconference games but Michigan does not and this year is no exception as it opens with home games against Colorado St., Hawaii and Colorado St. and those are not good litmus tests going into Big Ten season. Overall, it is not horrible as they do have Iowa and Ohio St. on the road but get Penn St. and Michigan St. at home with a bye in-between. The O/U win total is set at 9.5 and the over looks doable with eight home games but there is still trouble out there.  

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