Most of the domestic leagues in Europe have come to an end for the season and that means that the 2024 European Championship is right around the corner now. The first match of the competition is set to kick off on Friday, June 14, between Scotland and the host nation Germany. Italy are the defending champions from the 2020 Euro Cup that was played back in 2021, but with the start of the tournament now just a few weeks away, it is time to see if Italy can repeat or if there will be a new champion crowned this year.
To Win Outright
England +300: England is coming into this tournament as the team with the best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. England has had a lot of success in these competitions in recent years as they went to the final at the last Euro Cup, losing to Italy in penalties after a 1-1 draw, and they also made a deep run at the last World Cup, losing 2-1 to France in the quarterfinal. They did manage to get themselves relegated from group A in the UEFA Nations League between the Euro Cup and the World Cup, but they corrected their poor form recently as they dominated the group they were in the qualification stage for this tournament. England also has a very favorable group so they are very likely to get out of it in a good position, and they have shown they can make deep runs in these kinds of competitions with their performance in the last 2. They also have a team that is overflowing with talent at all positions and very well do have one of the best squads in the competition this year, but that is also one of their biggest problems as well. One of their biggest problems as a club is actually on the managerial side of things as Gareth Southgate has made some bad decisions over the last few years when picking players for the starting XI and there was even speculation that he was going to be gone after the last World Cup. England failed to pull the trigger on that decision and that could come back to bite them at the later stages in this tournament. England does have one of the best teams in the tournament but there is no real value in them at this price with a manager that cannot be trusted to make the right decisions deep in this tournament, especially with the pressure to perform on their shoulders, and there are also teams that are just as talented at a much better price. England does not have a lot of value here.
France +400: France is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. France has been one of the best teams in the world going back to 2016 with their consistency on the world stage. They went to the final of the 2016 Euro Cup which they lost to Portugal in, but then they followed it up with a World Cup back in 2018. They ended up getting knocked out of the last Euro Cup in the Round of 16 by Switzerland, but they once again had a deep run at the last World Cup in Qatar as they went all the way to the final, losing to Argentina in penalties after a 3-3 draw. France has been in great form since then as well, dominating the group they were in to qualify for this tournament. They do have a tougher group in the group stage of this competition, but they are still the best team by far and should have no problem getting out of the group. France also has a squad that is loaded with talent at all positions and they have a lot of attacking talent that can score goals which they are going to lean on, but this team is not nearly as strong defensively and can be easily exploited deeper in the competition against a team with the right attack. This was evident in their last meaningful competition that they played in at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar as they allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of their 7 matches played in the tournament, including 3 goals allowed to Argentina in the final. France definitely has the talent to make a deep run in this tournament as well as the experience from some very good performances on the world stage over the last few years, but they also have a defense that is not very sound and teams will exploit that as they get to the later stages. They have also performed much better at the last 2 World Cups than they have at the last 2 Euro Cups, winning the 2018 World Cup and going to the final in 2022 while losing in the final of the 2016 Euro Cup and losing in the Round of 16 in 2020. France does have some value here as they have been crowned champions on the world stage over the last few years, but they also have a defense that could get them into a lot of trouble so there is not a lot of value in them at this price.
Germany +550: Germany is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Germany is getting a lot of love here since they are the host nation for this tournament and will have the home crowd behind them in every game, but other than the home crowd on their side, they really have nothing going for them here. Germany has been awful in these competitions over the last few years as they have been on the decline as a team and they really have no chance at winning this tournament compared to the strength of some of the other teams in this competition. The last significant run that Germany had in one of these competitions was back in the 2016 Euro Cup when they lost to France in the semifinal. Since that tournament, they have been a complete disaster as they failed to make it out of the group stage in the 2018 World Cup, followed that up with a loss in the Round of 16 of the 2020 Euro Cup after a 1-1-1 group stage, and then they failed to make it out of the group stage again at the 2022 World Cup which was the last meaningful competition they played in. They have hired a new manager since the last World Cup, but they also face the problem of having automatic qualification from being the host nation so they have not played in a single meaningful competition since that group stage exit at the last World Cup and they have not even played a meaningful match yet under their new manager either. This team is also lacking in talent at various positions, and they have the same players on defense that have caused so many defensive problems over the last few years. There is no value in Germany to lift the trophy at this price as they have no real shot at winning this tournament.
Portugal +800: Portugal is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Portugal did not make it past the Round of 16 in the last Euro Cup but they were much better at the last World Cup as they went to the quarterfinal before getting kicked out by Morocco. They were very good in the qualification stage as they won every single match in their group and they have a very potent attack that has been scoring lots of goals for them going back to the World Cup. Their defense was a big problem in the World Cup as they did allow at least 2 goals in 2 of their 3 matches of the group stage and even lost in a 1-0 match to Morocco in the quarterfinals, Morocco not having a very strong attack either. They have fixed some of their defensive woes since then as they only allowed 2 goals in their 10 qualifying matches for this tournament, keeping 9 clean sheets in those 10 matches. Portugal was in a tough spot during the last World Cup as they were transitioning from Ronaldo being the guy to a team with some younger players and attacking talent all over the pitch. Ronaldo is still a key piece to this team when he is on the pitch, but they have also surrounded him with a lot of younger talent now and they have the potential to be a very dangerous team even when Ronaldo is not playing. This team has been arguably better with Ronaldo off the pitch as Goncalo Ramos is slowly making a name for himself as the next in line to replace that goal production. Either way, this team is not just Ronaldo anymore as they have built a very good team the last few years with a lot of quality in the midfield specifically and they have the potential to control matches with the talent they have in that area of the pitch. Portugal is a team flying under the radar right now but they do have a lot of value to win the tournament at this price as they have been quietly improving since their run in the last World Cup and they are going to be a lot better than the team that was seen in Qatar 2 years ago.
Spain +800: Spain is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Spain has a very talented team with a lot of young players and they have been trying to find their way in these competitions over the last few years as the younger players on the team grow with the experience, but now they have hit a point in which they have been in much better form over the last year and these young players are finally starting to round themselves into a team that can be a real threat on the world stage. They have been much better since their disappointment at the World Cup as well, dominating the group they were in for the qualifying phase as they won 7 of their 8 matches with some dominant scores in those as well. They also won the UEFA Nations League last year after beating Italy in the semifinal and Croatia in the final. Spain does have a tough group to get out of, but they are still the best team in their group by far and the other 2 strongest teams in the group are Italy and Croatia which they have recent experience beating at the Nations League Final last year. Spain is a team that has been regarded as a threat in these competitions over the last year, but now this team is finally here as a well rounded and balanced team with both their attack and their defense. Spain has the youth on their side to deal with the short periods of rest between matches in this style of tournament, but they also have a team that can win with their attack when they need to and also win with their defense in tighter matches, and that is going to carry them for in this tournament. There is a lot of value in Spain to win the tournament at this price.
Italy +1400: Italy is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Italy are the defending champions of this tournament but a lot has changed since they lifted the 2020 Euro Cup back in 2021. Shortly after winning the Euro Cup, they failed to even qualify for the World Cup in Qatar which was an embarrassment for a team coming off of a Euro Cup win and is also one of the most decorated teams in the World Cup. They followed up missing the World Cup in 2022 by going to the semifinal of the UEFA Nations League last year. They finished with the 3rd place medal after beating the Netherlands 3-2 in the consolation final, but they lost to Spain 2-1 in the semifinal when they had a chance to make amends for missing the World Cup. That was the final straw for Italy as they finally sacked their manager Roberto Mancini which has been a long time coming. Luciano Spalletti is now in charge of the team and they have been much better under his management. His 1st match with the team was a 1-1 away draw against North Macedonia, but they followed up by winning 3 of their next 4 matches, winning those by scores of 2-1, 4-0, and 5-2. This team is drastically different under Spalletti as Mancini loved to play a much together defensive style, tending to favor his older players as well, while Spalletti is not afraid to go for the wins in their matches with an all out attack from the talented young players they have in the squad. Italy is going to be a true wild card in this tournament as they have the talent with their younger players to be a dangerous team as they can score goals, but the defense is clearly not as sound as it was under Mancini and they are still in a transition phase with the new manager as he tries to figure out the best combination of players for this starting XI. There is some value in Italy to repeat as champions if the youth decides to step up here, but their defense is not all there yet with Spalletti and that will be a big problem as they get deeper into the tournament since it was their suffocating defense that won them the last Euro Cup. Italy has some value here at this price but there are still better options as there are more complete teams that can win this tournament.
RecommendationEngland and France are always going to be the popular teams to pick to win the Euro Cup this year and both teams have the talent required to make a deep run, but there are also a lot of other factors that could lead into another disappointment for both sides, especially with the amount of pressure constantly on these two sides to perform. The real value in this tournament lies with some of the other teams lower on the list as they are flying under the radar compared to teams like England and France despite having just as much talent in the squad. When Italy won the last Euro Cup, they were +1000 to win prior to the tournament starting. There are plenty of good teams in Europe this year that can win this tournament but the best value on the board is to go with Spain at +800 or Portugal at +800 as these are both teams that have underperformed over the last few years but have also done nothing but improve since the last World Cup. Spain at +800 has the best value followed by Portugal at +800.
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