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2025 Big East Basketball Postseason Picture

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025

2025 Big East Basketball Postseason Picture   The Big East has the past two national titles and has seven of the past 13 NCAA Titles since 2010-11 with four titles from Connecticut, two from Villanova, and a vacated title from former member Louisville. Despite that success the Big East only had three NCAA Tournament teams last season, though all were seeded on the top three lines.  The picture for the Big East ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament doesn’t look a lot better as it again appears likely that the Big East bubble teams will be left out, as Seton Hall and St. John’s were last season despite strong credentials. There is work to do for the conference to live up to its recent postseason success.  Here is a look at the postseason contenders from the Big East as we approach the midpoint of the conference season:  Defending Champion – Connecticut (6-3): The Huskies won the title as a #4 seed in 2022-23, going just 13-7 in Big East play and then last season won the title as the clear favorite as a #1 seed with a 31-3 record as Dan Hurley’s team should still be considered the team to beat. Connecticut did earn three impact non-conference wins in early December beating Baylor, Texas, and Gonzaga, after losing three non-conference games in Hawaii in November, with none of those results looking favorable at this point. With potentially bad losses on the resume, the margin for error is lower than expected for Connecticut, and right now the Huskies project to be in an 8/9 game in NCAA Tournament seeding, meaning they aren’t that far from the bubble. Connecticut has had one of the easiest rated Big East schedules so far and has still lost three games as they will still play Marquette and St. John’s twice each, plus a road game at Creighton after losing hosting the Bluejays. Three of those high-profile games for the Huskies are in the next two weeks as this is a key stretch for the defending champions.   Big East Leader – Marquette (8-1): The Golden Eagles have improved by one round in the NCAA Tournament each of the past two seasons now in year four under Shaka Smart, but they have topped out at the Sweet 16 last season, despite being a #2 seed in back-to-back seasons. Right now, Marquette would have a case to be a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament again with an 8-1 conference start and some quality non-conference wins, going 3-0 vs. Big Ten teams beating Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin. The problem is that the Big East path so far has been favorable and five games vs. the other three current top four teams remain with three of those five on the road. Marquette went 17-3 in conference play two seasons ago, but last season’s 14-6 finish looks more realistic for this year’s team.  Rifle Rick – St. John’s (8-1): Controversy has often followed Rick Pitino, but his track record can’t be argued with. After St. John’s narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament last season, this year’s team appears set on making sure they will be included with an 8-1 league start and a 17-3 overall record. The Big East path for St. John’s so far ranks 11th out 11 teams however as they haven’t faced Marquette or Connecticut. The only loss in conference play came narrowly at Creighton and St. John’s completed a sweep of Xavier last week. There isn’t much weight in the non-conference resume for the Red Storm, who lost in the two toughest games in very close calls in the Bahamas against Baylor and Georgia. Non-conference wins over New Mexico, Virginia, and Kansas State ultimately aren’t pulling as much weight as expected as St. John’s needs to perform well in the Big East race to stay in a good postseason position. Despite being tied on top of the Big East standings with Marquette, currently St. John’s is projected as a #7 or #8 seed in the NCAA Tournament without much of a margin for error.   Erratic Birds – Creighton (7-2): The Bluejays have looked like a quality NCAA Tournament team in a 7-2 Big East start that includes wins over St. John’s and at Connecticut, but the loss count is elevated with four non-conference defeats. The home loss to rival Nebraska won’t do Creighton any favors in March but the Bluejays do have a home win over Kansas to pull up the numbers. It is a big week for Creighton with winnable but difficult games hosting Xavier and playing at Villanova as the Bluejays look to stay in the top four of the Big East. The remaining meetings with Marquette and Connecticut are both at home while also having to play at St. John’s, and the challenge is those three big games will be in succession in the span of eight days in mid-February. An issue for Creighton also may not necessarily be the loss count or the quality of those opponents, but that Creighton was blown out in a few games with three losses by double-digits and five losses by eight or more points.   Bubble Shot – Xavier (5-5): Villanova has a little life remaining as bubble long shot, but with two non-conference losses outside the nation’s top 100, Xavier’s chances look much stronger between the 5-5 teams in the Big East. Xavier has faced the most difficult Big East schedule so far to get to 5-5 and they did manage two wins in the six games vs. Marquette, Connecticut, and St. John’s, for a commendable showing. Losses to Connecticut and St. John’s came in overtime while Xavier also had a 2-point loss to Marquette as the Musketeers have looked the part on the court. The 8-3 non-conference season lacks standout wins but wins over Wake Forest and South Carolina are at least worth mentioning and all three losses came away from home vs. top 100 teams, though the TCU and Cincinnati defeats could become more damaging by season’s end. Xavier must play at Creighton this week as falling below .500 is likely, but from there the opportunity to close the season on a strong run will be there. 13-7 in the Big East wasn’t enough for Seton Hall last season as the Musketeers will need to be sharp the rest of the way but this is a team with potential, and a team that the top three Big East contenders are likely glad to be done with for the regular season. 

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2025 ACC Basketball Postseason Picture

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025

The ACC picture is taking form with a few surprise contenders in the current standings with only seven of 18 teams in the league sitting above .500 in conference play at this point. All schedules are not created equal and there is some value in projecting how the next few weeks will play out.  In ESPN’s current bracketology, only five ACC teams would make the NCAA Tournament. Only 15 teams will even make the ACC Tournament as well. The conference isn’t rated incredibly well relative to the other power conferences right now but last season the conference showed up in the postseason, going 12-5 collectively with a Final Four team, three Elite 8 teams, and four Sweet 16 teams.  Here is a look at the top postseason threats in the current ACC picture:   The Favorite – Duke (10-0): Duke is perfect in the first half of the ACC season even with a few recent close calls. The Blue Devils face North Carolina for the first time this season in the coming week and they have not yet faced Clemson this season as the 10-0 start has come through the #17 ranked ACC schedule so far. Duke’s numbers are impressive, and the Blue Devils also have non-conference wins over Arizona and Auburn. Getting to play Louisville in the ACC opener may prove to have been an advantage while the Blue Devils have road wins vs. SMU and Wake Forest as well as that opening win at Louisville. Duke is on track to be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018-19.   Next in Line – Louisville (8-1): Louisville is in a major transition season with Pat Kelsey taking over and the roster featuring numerous newcomers. The Cardinals struggled a bit in a difficult non-conference schedule, but the team has found its form of late rolling off nine straight wins including eight in a row in ACC play. That includes wins over North Carolina and Clemson at home, plus road wins over Florida State, Pittsburgh, and SMU. Seven of eight ACC wins have come by double-digit margins of victory as well. Louisville’s only game with Duke was the opener in Durham back in early December, a game the Cardinals likely would be more competitive in if those teams played right now. The remaining schedule is quite favorable for the Cardinals as if Duke slips up twice, Louisville is a threat to move up as this team should be favored in every remaining regular season game after reaching 8-1 through the #1 rated ACC schedule so far.   Tourney Bound - Clemson (9-1): This is Brad Brownell’s 15th season and Clemson, and the Tigers have only made the NCAA Tournament four times. Last season was a breakthrough, earning a #6 seed and delivering a run to the Elite 8, including nice wins over Baylor and Arizona before losing to Alabama to fall short of a Final Four run. This year’s team has similar numbers and sits two overtime losses away from being 19-2 instead of 17-4. The Tigers have only one loss in ACC play but it came to Louisville, who looks likely to pass Clemson in the standings given the remaining paths. Clemson hasn’t faced Duke or North Carolina yet and will have challenging games ahead in the coming weeks facing NC State, Florida State, and SMU on the road in February. A non-conference win over Kentucky should keep Clemson in the NCAA Tournament picture provided the team produces a solid closing run in the ACC, with a risk for a bad loss present in this year’s conference race.   Trouble Brewing – North Carolina (6-3): The Tar Heels were a possession away from winning the 2022 NCAA Championship and then didn’t even make the tournament in 2023. Last season North Carolina had a strong 17-3 ACC season and made a Sweet 16 run, though as a #1 seed in the Big Dance, expectations were higher and the tournament exit came painfully in a two-point result, while North Carolina watched nearby ACC rivals Duke and NC State advance further. This year’s team already has eight losses, and they will still face Duke twice, Pittsburgh twice, plus games vs. Florida State, Clemson, and NC State in a difficult remaining ACC path. Losses to Stanford and Wake Forest look potentially problematic and while all the non-conference losses came against quality teams, there is a complete dearth of high quality wins, with zero top 30 wins and only two top 50 wins against UCLA and SMU. Right now, North Carolina is right on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but this team likely needs to get a win over Duke to get comfortably on the right side of the cut line as there are likely to be a few more ACC losses ahead.   Wild Card – Wake Forest (7-2): Steve Forbes has yet to make the NCAA Tournament at Wake Forest even with a 13-7 ACC season in 2021-22 and a winning record in ACC play last season. Wake Foerst doesn’t have any bad losses this season though losing by 15 against Xavier could prove to be a comparison problem among potential bubble teams. Wake Foerst has a nice win over Michigan from November and has posted a strong 7-2 start to the ACC season with the losses in competitive games vs. Clemson and Duke. The Demon Deacons beat North Carolina last week and have a big opportunity this week at Louisville, before hosting Pittsburgh over the weekend. If Wake Forest can split those games, the early February path is favorable and getting to 14-6 or better in ACC play is realistic with the toughest remaining games at SMU in mid-February and then at Duke in early March. Last year’s team had a pretty strong case to be included, and it will likely be another close call for the Demon Deacons on Selection Sunday.   Crashing Out – Pittsburgh (4-4): The Panthers were a tough omission from the 2024 NCAA Tournament with a 12-8 record in league play, surging late after starting just 1-5. That included a win at Duke, while sweeping NC State and beating Wake Forest. There were a handful of bad losses however plus a weak non-conference schedule. This season Pittsburgh had a 9-2 non-conference season with only quality losses and a few solid wins beating West Virginia, LSU, and Ohio State in a true road game. That put the Panthers on the right side of the NCAA Tournament picture, but after staring 3-0 in ACC play, the Panthers have lost four of the past five. Last week’s overtime home loss to Clemson was a damaging miss and the Panthers have a tough stretch of games in the next two weeks facing North Carolina twice plus road games vs. Wake Forest and SMU. Pittsburgh still must play Louisville on the road in March after losing to the Cardinals at home and it is hard to envision the Panthers surviving the upcoming schedule still sitting on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.   Dark Horse – SMU (6-3): SMU had a great first ACC season in football and is proving worthy in basketball as well. The Mustangs didn’t do enough in the non-conference season to warrant NCAA Tournament consideration, but they will have the chance to make some noise in the ACC standings. In the 6-3 conference start there aren’t any high-end wins, losing the three toughest games including two home games. The toughest remaining games vs. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Clemson are all in Dallas however as a great February run isn’t impossible for this team and doing so would likely give SMU quality bubble comparison ammunition. This team has appealing shooting numbers and benefits from doubling up games with fellow ACC newcomers California and Stanford. Clemson didn’t make the NCAA Tournament two years ago while finishing 14-6 in conference play, but it would be very difficult to leave out a team that finishes 15-5 or better, and while that would be on the high-end of the possible outcomes for SMU, it seems possible with the toughest games already completed. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/28/2025

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. Two games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Houston Rockets travel to Atlanta to play the Hawks as a 6-point road favorite with the total set at 228.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Los Angeles Lakers play in Philadelphia against the 76ers on TNT as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 218. Two NBA games conclude the card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz as an 11-point favorite with a total of 229. The Milwaukee Bucks are in Portland to face the Trail Blazers on TNT as a 6-point road favorite with an over/under of 231. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Lighting plays at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -345 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes visit New York to play the Rangers as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Boston Bruins plays at Buffalo against the Sabres as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets are in Montreal to play the Canadiens as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche travels to New York to play the Islanders at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Washington Capitals plays at Calgary to challenge the Flames at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two NHL games complete the card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Seattle Kraken are home against the Anaheim Ducks as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights host the Dallas Stars as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 29 games between Division I opponents. Thirteen NCAAB games are on major national television. St. John’s is at Georgetown on FS1 at 6:30 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 140.5. Four NCAAB games on major national television Tennessee plays at home against Kentucky on ESPN as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Providence visits Seton Hall on Peacock as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 133. South Florida is at home against Rice on ESPNU as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. Ohio hosts Toledo on ESPN2 as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 161.5. Two NCAAB games begin at 8:00 p.m. ET. Michigan State plays at home against Minnesota on Peacock as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139. VCU plays at Saint Louis on the CBS Sports Network as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 142.5. Marquette is at Butler on FS1 at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 147. Two NCAAB games start at 9:00 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh is at home against North Carolina on ESPN as a 4-point favorite with a total of 154. BYU hosts Baylor on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Utah plays at home against Cincinnati on the CBS Sports Network at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with a total of 138.5. San Diego State is at home against San Jose State on FS1 at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136. Gonzaga hosts Oregon State on ESPN2 at 11:00 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with a total of 154.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/27/2025

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 27, 2025

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has 12 games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Detroit Pistons as a 10-point favorite, with the total set at 234 (all odds from DraftKings). The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222. Five NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Sacramento Kings play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 10.5-point road favorite with a total of 221.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Houston Rockets as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 222. The New York Knicks are home against the Memphis Grizzlies as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 243. The Toronto Raptors host the New Orleans Pelicans as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The Orlando Magic are in Miami to play the Heat as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 207. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Denver Nuggets visit Chicago to play the Bulls as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 244.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 10-point favorite with a total of 219. The Dallas Mavericks are home against the Washington Wizards at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 232. The Milwaukee Bucks play in Utah against the Jazz at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 9-point road favorite with a total of 235. The Los Angeles Clippers are in Phoenix to battle the Suns at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New Jersey Devils visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings play in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The St. Louis Blues host the Vancouver Canucks at 7:37 p.m. ET as a 3-118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Seattle Kraken at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins are in San Jose to face the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 22 games between Division I opponents. Six NCAAB games are on major national television. Boston University is home against Holy Cross on the CBS Sports Network at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 130. Ohio State hosts Iowa on FS1 at 8:00 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 157.5. Duke plays at home against North Carolina State on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 22-point favorite with an over/under of 134.5. Northeastern is home against Towson State on the CBS Sports Network at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 133. USC hosts UCLA on FS1 at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 140.5. Iowa State visits Arizona on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 152.

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Buy Low, Sell High In The NBA

by AAA Sports

Monday, Jan 27, 2025

Three NBA teams to back and three to fade as the season grinds into February:  TEAMS TO BACK Miami Heat – One way or another, the Jimmy Butler Dilemma will be solved. The Heat (and really we’re talking President Pat Riley here) will not allow Butler to continue the Play-Sulk-Sit-Suspend business model much longer. And when Butler is no longer in uniform, the remaining players will breathe a sigh of relief and move on.  Miami enters the month of February at .500, but would have to be truly dreadful over the next few months to bad enough to enter the lottery. Besides, unlike 9 or 10 teams, they refuse to tank. They’ll at least play hard post-Butler.Orlando Magic – This was supposed to be a breakout year for the young Magic, who last season were only a few good quarters away from finishing in third in the East. Then, injuries. After finishing 12 games over .500 last season, the Magic are now a break-even team. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Sparkplug high-motor Jalen Suggs, who is the key to just about everything Orlando does on offense and defense, has returned to action after missing 10 games with a lower back issue. Franz Wagner is also playing once again. The Magic will move heaven and earth to avoid the Play-In Tournament, and it appears doable.Denver Nuggets – Making up 9 games is the loss column in the Western Conference is obviously a bridge too far, but the Nuggets are now playing like the could make a real run at finishing second in the West, behind the Thunder. The O/U win total for Denver is 51.5, which would require only a 24-13 record the rest of the way. And to motivation, add the fact that Nikola Jokic is in the running for a fourth MVP Award and runningmate Jamal Murray has finally emerged from whatever funk he had been in since last summer’s Olympics, and the immediate future looks good. TEAMS TO FADE New Orleans Pelicans – Any team that loses by 31 points to Charlotte has to think about starting over. The Pelicans’ defense is atrocious (they give up almost 118 a game), Zion Williamson is playing but not in NBA game shape, and there’s snow on Bourbon Street. What else could go wrong? It’s definitely tanking time in the Big Easy, and the thought of Williamson (if he stays) playing alongside Cooper Flagg next season might keep the fan base from a mass exit. Philadelphia 76ers – Can things get any worse in Philly? The team bites, and the only way they can keep their first-round pick next season if they get worse this year (their first-rounder goes to Oklahoma City    if it’s not in the top 6). Now losing games is something the Sixers are actually pretty good at (See: Process). But if they lose intentionally to protect the future, the NBA suits will come down hard on them. It’s ok for small market teams to tank, but not descendants of Chamberlain, Erving and Iverson. Who knows what's going to happen with Philly.Washington Wizards – Before the season, bettors could bet over or under on the Wiz winning 22.5 games. They are now on a pace to win all of 11 games, and if things don’t get better they could challenge the record for the worst mark (9-73) in NBA history, set by the 1972-73 Sixers. Teams this bad don’t have to tank. They can play hard and still lose. And lose they will. Washington is the worst defensive team in the league and loses by an average of nearly 15 points a game. They have given absolutely no indication that things will change much over the rest of the season.

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UFC Fight Night 250: Preview and Picks

by Will Rogers

Sunday, Jan 26, 2025

UFC Fight Night 250 - Adesanya vs. Imavov Saturday, February 1stKingdom Arena - Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaWe've seen some high profile boxing matches there, as well as soccer, tennis, golf and wrestling. On Saturday, the UFC is back in Riyadh. Though there have been 20 events in Abu Dhabi, (UAE) this will mark just the second time that Saudi Arabia will have hosted an event. The headliner features Nassourdine "The Sniper" Imavov squaring off against "The Last Stylebender," Israel Adesanya. Other notable names on the card include Michael Page, Shara Magomedov, Sergei Pavlovich and Said Nurmagomedov. Let's take a closer look at the two biggest fights. The Main EventFormer middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (24-4) is currently laying in the -160 to -170 range, depending on where one plays, against Nassourdine Imavov. The 35-year old Adesanya is off back-to-back losses and has dropped three of his last four.  The 29-year old Imavov (15-4) has won three straight. Next week, at UFC 312 in Sidney, current middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis will defend his title in a rematch against Sean Strickland. (Du Plessis and Strickland are the two fighters who just beat Adesanya, while Imavov's last loss came against Strickland.) Both Adesanya and Imavov hope to face the winner of that fight. However, Dana White has already said that number one contender Khamzat Chimaev is probably next in line for a title shot.Whether or not it leads to a title shot, Saturday's match is very important to both fighters. Adesanya can't afford another loss. This will mark the first time since 2019 that he's fighting in a non-title fight. He's not suggesting retirement but another defeat could cause him to reconsider. On the other hand, an impressive win and he's right back in the conversation.Adesanya said this about his current mindset: "Same as I've always had it, I never really chased the belt. I always knew it would come around. I knew what I was going to do in the game, I knew it was going to keep coming around. So again, now I just plan on keep winning and it'll circle back. I'm not chasing the belt, but the belt chases me."Imavov feels that he has a chance to leapfrog Chimaev, if he can deliver an impressive enough victory. “Of course, depending on the performance, I can get the next title shot. It can be Khamzat. The fact that I went for four fights in one year, two top five, two top 10, that’s something very significant." Prediction: Anything could happen but my feeling is that Adesanya isn't done yet. Alexander Volkanovski recently sparred with The Last Stylebender and said he was in top form. "Didn’t even get close to him," said Volkanovski. However, the most likely outcome appears to be a decision. Imavov has seen four of his last five go the distance. Five of Adesanya's last eight fights have also been decided by the judges. The Co-Main EventI had a big play on Shara "Bullet" Magomedov (15-0) in his last fight, an impressive second round spinning back-fist KO of Armen Petrosyan. That was back in UFC 308, at Abu Dhabi. On Saturday, Magomedov puts his undefeated record on the line against English fighter Michael Page. Off a loss in his last fight, the 37-year old Page is now 22-3 for his career. Magomedov, 30 years old, opened as a -160 favorite but the line is now closer to -200. The O/U line for this 3-round middleweight bout is 2.5 over -240. Four of Page's last five fights have gone the distance. Magomedov has won three of his last six fights by decision. Before that, he'd stopped each of his first nine opponents. Magomedov is blind in one eye but that's clearly never been an issue.Convinced that he's the better striker and perhaps trying to goad him into staying on his feet, Page said this about his opponent: “I think he will be a lot more stubborn in believing in his ability. So, I think I’d definitely be landing some crazy shots if he decides to go for a takedown, because like I said, I think he in his mind he believes he’s the best when it comes to the striking game. So, it will take a few knocks before he decides to change that, and maybe it might be too little too late. I think he’ll be very bloodied up if he is going for a takedown.”Bullet countered with: “Michael Page I heard you say that I will bleed in our fight on February 1st. Yes I will bleed, only in yours." Prediction: Though I mentioned that both fighters have had some recent decisions, getting roughly +200 on the under looks like very fair value. If you're looking for a big underdog payout on Saturday, consider the under 2.5 rounds.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NHL, NBA, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds 01/26/2025

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jan 26, 2025

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Football League continues its postseason with its two conference championship games in the playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders in the NFC conference championship game on Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET. The Eagles are on a four-game winning streak after their 28-22 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. The Commanders are on a seven-game winning streak after their 45-31 upset win at Detroit as an 8-point underdog last Saturday night. Philadelphia is a 6-point favorite with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Kansas City Chiefs play at home against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game on CBS at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Chiefs won for the seventh time in their last eight games with their 23-14 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. The Bills won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5.The National Basketball Association has one game on its docket. The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Portland to play the Trail Blazers as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 225.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The New York Rangers are at home against the Colorado Avalanche at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators host the Utah Hockey Club at 5:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Calgary Flames at 6:07 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Minnesota Wild are in Chicago to play the Blackhawks at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are home against Florida to face the Panthers as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 13 games between Division I opponents. Five NCAAB games are on major national television. Two NCAAB games on major national television at noon ET. Maryland visits Indiana on CBS as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 149.5. Duquesne plays at Fordham on the USA Network as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 139. Memphis hosts UAB on ESPN2 at 1:00 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5. North Texas plays at home against Florida Atlantic on ESPNU at 2:00 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Army is home against Navy on the CBS Sports Network at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 141.Matchweek 23 in the English Premier League concludes with four matches. Two EPL matches start at 9:00 a.m. ET. Crystal Palace hosts Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham plays at home against Leicester City on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Aston Villa is home against West Ham United at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Fulham hosts Manchester United on the USA Network at 2:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 01/25/2025

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jan 25, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has 14 games on its docket. The Indiana Pacers travel to San Antonio to face the Spurs at 12:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 232 (all odds from DraftKings). The Denver Nuggets play at Minnesota against the Timberwolves on ABC at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228. The Boston Celtics are in Dallas against the Mavericks on ABC as an 8-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. The Miami Heat visit Brooklyn to play the Nets at 6:10 p.m. ET as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 209.5. Two more NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New Orleans Pelicans play in Charlotte against the Hornets as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. The Orlando Magic hosts the Detroit Pistons as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 211. Three more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Hawks play at home against the Toronto Raptors as a 4-point favorite with a total of 236. The Cleveland Cavaliers are home against the Houston Rockets as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. The New York Knicks are a 6-point favorite with a total of 233.5. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Chicago Bulls host the Philadelphia 76ers as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231.5. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the Utah Jazz as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 246. The Los Angeles Lakers are in Golden State to play the Warriors on ABC at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 219. The Phoenix Suns are home against the Washington Wizards at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with a total of 231.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Milwaukee Bucks at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224.5. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The Colorado Avalanche travel to Boston to play the Bruins at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 4:07 p.m. ET. The Seattle Kraken play at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Six NHL games start at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New Jersey Devils are in Montreal to face the Canadiens as a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Dallas Stars visit St. Louis to challenge the Blues as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings play in Columbus against the Blue Jackets as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Minnesota Wild host the Calgary Flames as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Ottawa to battle the Senators as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes travel to New York to face the Islanders at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Three more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Nashville Predators play in Anaheim against the Ducks as a -192 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Washington Capitals are in Vancouver against the Canucks as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Florida Panthers visit San Jose to play the Sharks as a -310 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 149 games between Division I opponents. Seven NCAAB games are on major national television. Providence plays at home against Georgetown on Fox at 12:30 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 139.5. Michigan State plays at Rutgers on CBS as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under 149.5. Kentucky is at Vanderbilt on ESPN at 2:30 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 166. New Mexico visits UNLV on Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET as a 3-point road favorite an over/under of 147.5. Duke plays at Wake Forest on ESPN at 4:30 p.m. ET as an 11-point road favorite with a total of 136. Houston is at Kansas on ESPN at 6:30 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under 127.5. Auburn hosts Tennessee at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 141. Matchweek 23 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Five EPL matches start at 10:00 a.m. ET. Bournemouth hosts Nottingham Forest on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion plays at home against Everton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Ipswich Town as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United visits Southampton as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal plays at Wolverhampton as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City is home against Chelsea at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5.

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College Hoops Overall Betting- Last 30 Days Trends

by Kyle Hunter

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

College Hoops Overall Betting Last 30 Days TrendsWhat has happened in the last 30 days in college basketball? I’m looking only from a bettors perspective at the whole picture of the college basketball landscape. Let’s see what has gone on and then take a look at whether we can gain any edges going forward. Last 30 Days Betting StatsHome Teams 580-634 ATS (47.8%)Road Teams 634-580 ATS (52.2%) Underdogs 612-606 ATS (50.4%) Home Underdogs 179-201 ATS (47.1%) 612 Overs 606 Unders (50.2%)Overtime Games 67-10 Overs (87% Overs) Non-Overtime Games 596-545 Unders (52.2% Unders)  Let’s start with the totals. It should come as no surprise that games that go to overtime go over the total at a very high rate. If you could predict which games were going over the total, you could be rich! That’s obviously very hard to predict. On the other hand, you can try to predict which games won’t go to overtime and that helps a lot with knowing where there can be opportunities to bet the under. Unders where there is a large point spread have done better than unders in general for many years. That is because there is far less of a chance of a late fouling fest, and a much smaller chance of overtime. I also do consider overs a bit more when the point spread is between 5-8 points because of the increased chances of a late foul fest. On the ATS front, home teams did very poorly in the last 30 days. Is it an aberration? They won’t continue to do this poorly ATS consistently, but road teams have had the edge over home teams in most recent seasons. There is quite a bit of evidence that home court advantage is overvalued by the betting markets. There are obviously exceptions to the rule where some specific home courts are worth a lot, but on the whole home court advantage is being overstated.There are about five weeks left in the regular season. As we grow closer to the end of the season, I would try to keep an eye out for teams who have little to play for and seem to be just going through the motions. The oddsmakers are good at their job, but there are always some edges to be found. 

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Four NCAA BB Teams to Sell High

by Kyle Hunter

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

Four NCAA BB Teams To Sell High Betting on sports can be similar to buying and selling in the stock market. You want to look to buy teams when they are low and sell teams when the market is too high on them. I want to take a look at four teams that have done well for bettors so far this year. These are teams where it might makes sense to try to sell high while you have a chance. UC Davis (10-7-1 ATS) UC Davis is 7th out of 364 teams in the country in KenPom’s luck factor. They are also among the luckiest teams based on Shot Quality’s data. UC Davis ranks 247th in the country in shot selection. They also rank a poor 309th in shot selection allowed. They are very heavily relying on forcing turnovers to keep their defensive efficiency numbers up. UC Davis has had a friendly schedule to this point in the conference too. That will not be the case going forward. UC Davis plays their next four games on the road. UC Riverside and UC Irvine are the next two up on the schedule. I’ll look for spots to fade UC Davis. 2. Middle Tennessee State (11-4-2 ATS) MTSU has been a covering machine this year, but I don’t think that will continue the rest of the way. Middle Tennessee State is 21st in KenPom’s luck factor. The Blue Raiders play four of their next six games on the road. There is definitely some luck involved in 3 point FG percentage defense. MTSU is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2% (40th best in the country) from long range so far this year. They are 274th in the country in open 3 rate allowed though. MTSU has been poor at defending the 3 point line in recent seasons. I think this number will regress toward the mean. Cleveland State (12-6 ATS) The Cleveland State Vikings have had a really good season. I think this team is well coached and they are improved. I think that the market has gotten a bit high on them though. Cleveland State is 9-1 in a Horizon League that is a bit weaker than it has normally been. Cleveland State relies on turnovers and offensive rebounds to do a lot of their damage. This is a team that has played the #312 strength of schedule so far this season. The road games at Fort Wayne and Northern Kentucky will be good tests for them in the upcoming days. St. Bonaventure (14-5 ATS) The Bonnies are a pretty good team, but there is a point spread tax on them at this point after this kind of covering stretch. DaSante Bowen is still out and Chance Moore missed their last game too. The Bonnies lack the depth necessary to keep playing at such a high level without multiple key starters. They are giving up nearly 1.11 points per possession in A10 play. Their defense that is normally a strength is weaker than average this season. 

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NFL System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

The NFL Playoffs resume this weekend with two match-ups of teams that already faced one another this season.  And, in the NFC Championship game, it will be the 3rd meeting of the season between NFC East division rivals.As a handicapper, I often look to previous meetings when I handicap a game.  Sometimes, that prior meeting might lead me to take a revenge-minded team.  Other times, I may play on a team because of its dominance in the series.  Here, though, we are going to focus on the Over/Under.The Commanders and Eagles second meeting this season was just five weeks ago, and the Commanders upset the Eagles, 36-33, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  The Over/Under line for that game was 47 points.This Sunday, the Eagles are a 6-point home favorite, with an O/U line of 47.5 points.What may jump out to many is the fact that the most recent meeting was an unusually high-scoring game, with 69 total points.  Some may be inclined to play on this weekend's game Over the total because of that 69-point game.  But be careful, as sporting events tend to not follow a well-worn script.  And our NFL System of the Week does, indeed, forecast a low-scoring game, as it says to play the UNDER in games between two teams whose previous meeting in the same season totaled 68 (or more) points.  Since 1980, there have been 130 such match-ups.  And the UNDER has gone 77-50-3.  Even better:  if the O/U line was greater than 47 points (as it is in this Eagles/Commanders game), then our 77-50-3 stat zooms to 24-10-2 UNDER.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/24/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has three games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Charlotte Hornets host the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 2205 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Philadelphia to play the 76ers as a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the New Orleans at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 12-point favorite with a total of 242.5. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:37 p.m. ET. The New York Islanders are home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Dallas Stars host the Vegas Golden Knights on ESPN. The Stars lost for the third time in their last four games after a 2-1 loss at home against Carolina on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are on a four-game losing streak after a 5-4 loss against St. Louis on Monday. Dallas is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.  Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Chicago against the Blackhawks as a -230 money-line road favorite with an over/under 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Utah Hockey Club as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 13 games between Division I opponents. Eight NCAAB games are on major national television. Toledo is at Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network at 6:00 p.m. ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 159.5. Two NCAAB games on major national television at 7:00 p.m. ET. Marquette is home against Villanova on FS1 as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Ohio hosts Kent State on ESPNU as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5. Dayton plays at home against Saint Joseph on ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Flyers are on a two-game winning streak after their 82-62 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. The Hawks are a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Purdue is home against Michigan on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 4:00 p.m. ET. The Boilermakers were on a seven-game winning streak before a 73-70 upset loss against Ohio State as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday. The Wolverines won for the sixth time in their last seven times in an 80-76 victory against Northwestern as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Purdue is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 151. Two more NCAAB games on major national television begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. Iowa hosts Penn State on FS1 as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 168. VCU plays at home against St. Bonaventure on ESPNU as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. UCLA travels to play Washington on FS1 at 11:00 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 138.

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