Articles

MLB Postseason Futures Outlook

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022

MLB Postseason Futures Outlook  The MLB Playoffs have a new format this season and there may be some inefficiency in the futures market as four teams will have a bye in the first round for a dramatic change to the mechanics of the tournament. The eight teams playing immediately in the playoffs will play a best of three series to bring higher variance to the picture and potentially help the case for a possible series upset.  The division series games will start on October 11 as the four teams not playing in the wild card round will have six days off after the regular season, perhaps a less than ideal situation for lineups to maintain their peak form. The ALDS and NLDS pairings will remain best of five games before the standard seven-game series format goes in place for the League Championship Series.  With a week to go in the regular season the wild card teams are still jostling for positions. While Baltimore has not yet been eliminated in the AL, the three likely wild card teams Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Seattle are separated by only two games as the positions are still in flux. In the National League Milwaukee is just a half-game out of the final playoff position as they will compete with San Diego and Philadelphia in the final week with only two of those three teams making the field.  The NL East race is the most critical piece of the futures picture as the Mets lead Atlanta by one game in the standings with those teams entering the NL field as the #2 and #4 seeds. This distinction will be severe as the #4 seed will not only have to face a do-or-die three-game series in the wild card round, but they will also be paired with the Dodgers in the NLDS should they survive that round.  In the American League the case can be made that the #6 seed may be the preferable wild card position, drawing the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians, a team that might wind up with a lesser record than some of the wild card teams. The victor of the 3/6 pairing will be matched with a Yankees team that slumped in the final two months of the season rather than the AL leading Astros.  Likewise the case can be made that it may be preferable to be the #2 seed compared to being the #1 seed in this format as the top wild card team if often a stronger team than the #3 division winner, as would likely be the case in both leagues this season.  Worthy Long Shots: Atlanta Braves: +950 to win the World Series (9/29 at FanDuel)  The Braves are catching nearly double the price that the Mets have while just one game out of the NL East lead heading into the final week of the regular season. Atlanta has the better scoring differential on the season and is on a 74-32 run since June 1. Atlanta will host New York for three games this week before finishing the season in Miami as the Braves have a great opportunity to win the series this week to move into at least a tie for the division lead. The Mets close the season hosting Washington, a team that has been playing well down the stretch as Atlanta has a realistic chance to climb to the #2 seed.  Even if the Braves do wind up in the wild card route, the Padres, Phillies, and Brewers don’t offer an overly intimidating draw in the 4/5 pairing. The Braves also are the biggest threat to the Dodgers as Atlanta is 36-16 vs. left-handed starters while posting some of MLB’s best offensive splits vs. left-handed pitching. All four starters in the Los Angeles rotation right now are left-handed until Tony Gonsolin comes off the IL and it is unlikely Gonsolin would get a start in the NLDS anyhow. Atlanta took the Dodgers to seven games in the 2020 NLCS and won the NLCS 4-2 against the Dodgers last season as the Braves are a serious NL threat in whatever path they wind up in.  Tampa Bay Rays: +1000 to win the American League (9/29 at DraftKings)  The Rays could wind up in any of the three wild card positions. The #6 spot opposite Cleveland is a favorable place to be but even if they match up with Toronto, the Rays won the season series with the Blue Jays and the pricing gap between those teams in this market is difficult to justify. Toronto’s offense has been streaky and the starting pitching for the Blue Jays is marginal. Shane McClanahan has been one of the top pitchers in MLB this season to give the Rays a true ace while Tyler Glasnow’s recent return provides a boost to the pitching staff even if he is only used in relief or as an opener as he works his way back to full strength. Corey Kluber and Drew Rasmussen have had fine seasons and the pitching staff for Tampa Bay can carry it to a series win, particularly in a three-game set where McClanahan can start Game 1.  The Rays play at Houston in the final week of the regular season to provide some familiarity and comfort level should they advance and match up with Houston in the ALDS. Tampa Bay went just 8-11 vs. the Yankees but with near-even scoring and the Rays went 5-4 vs. New York in the final three series between those teams. The Rays beat the Yankees in the 2020 ALDS and New York’s starting pitching has left plenty of question marks down the stretch as they could be a vulnerable group.  Seattle Mariners: +1400 to win the American League (9/29 at BetMGM) The Mariners have not made the playoffs since their 116-win 2001 season and after narrowly missing the postseason last year Seattle is in a good position to not only get in but to emerge as a threat to win several games. Seattle closes the season on a long home stand to avoid hectic late season travel and this team is well-suited for a three-game series with Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray as elite starting pitchers from each side. Seattle has not played its best ball in September and the recent injury to star rookie Julio Rodriguez is a setback, but he is expected to be cleared to return in early October in time for the playoffs. Cleveland has been a great story this season but right now the Mariners have a stronger scoring differential than Cleveland and own 15 more wins vs. winning teams than the Guardians. Seattle also went 6-1 head-to-head with Cleveland this season with a 29-11 edge in scoring. Seattle won four of six with the Yankees this season as the Mariners would be a threat to get in a position for a competitive ALDS series to provide profitable opportunities for those holding a piece of a long shot ticket with Seattle.  Milwaukee Brewers: +5000 to win the National League (9/29 at PointsBet)  The Brewers are not even in the playoffs right now as this is a serious long shot proposition. The closing schedule is dramatically favorable for Milwaukee compared to Philadelphia however, playing at home vs. Miami and Arizona for the final two series. A Phillies team with a 10-13 record in September while -16 in scoring will be on the road for the final two series, playing Washington and Houston. The Astros may not have anything to play for in that final series, but Washington is on pace to have its best month of the season in September even if the Nationals have played poorly head-to-head with the Phillies. If Milwaukee finds a way into the playoffs as the #6 seed they would have a familiar draw in the Cardinals, who they went 9-10 against. Milwaukee’s starting pitching with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes would be formidable in a three-game series and while St. Louis added left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana mid-season in part to match up with Milwaukee, the Cardinals would almost certainly start right-hander Adam Wainwright in Game 1 for a possible advantage in the huge swing game for a Brewers team that excels vs. right-handers. Holding this ticket comes with no serious expectation that Milwaukee will make it to the World Series but even entering the playoffs or providing a Game 1 win in the wild card round would provide a profitable hedging situation.  If you are looking to play on one of the favorites in the postseason futures market, truthfully, you’re too late. At the current prices you are better off waiting to see how the bracket plays out to see if one of the top contenders would lose an opening game of the division series to provide a window to jump back in at a more favorable price. In the division series round last season, three of the four teams that advanced lost Game 1 in the ALDS or NLDS. The MLB playoffs rarely go according to seeding form and with the new format the advantage for the #1 seeds has been reduced with a case to be made the #2 seeds could have a more favorable position.  Remember, playing the futures market is not about guessing who will win it all, it is about consistently adjusting your positions to ensure that you profit no matter what team wins. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022

The Thursday sports card features action in NFL, NCAAF, and MLB.Week 4 in the National Football League kicks off with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Miami Dolphins on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Bengals won their first game last week with a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Dolphins remained unbeaten this season with a 21-19 upset win at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 48 (all odds from DraftKings).The fourth week of the college football regular season begins with BYU playing at home against Utah State on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Cougars won for the third time in their first four games with a 38-24 victory at home against Wyoming as a 21-point favorite on Saturday night. The Aggies lost for the third time in their first four games after a 34-24 loss at home to UNLV as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. BYU is a 25-point favorite with an over/under of 60.Major League Baseball has ten games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. Detroit is home against Kansas City, with Eduardo Rodriguez taking the ball to pitch against Jonathan Heasley for the Royals. The Tigers are a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Chicago visits Minnesota with the White Sox tapping Lucas Giolito to pitch against the Twins’ Louie Varland. The White Sox are a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles at 1:35 PM ET. Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill for the Red Sox to battle against Mike Baumann for the Orioles. Boston is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies play at Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. The Phillies turn to Ranger Suarez in their starting rotation to pitch against the Cubs’ Javier Assad. Philadelphia is a -190 money line road favorite. The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET. Jeffrey Springs takes the mound for the Rays to duel against Cal Quantrill for the Guardians. Tampa Bay is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Miami Marlins play at Milwaukee against the Brewers at 7:40 PM ET. The Marlins Braxton Garrett takes the ball to pitch against the Brewers Eric Lauer. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET. Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels against Cole Irvin for the A’s. Los Angeles is a -250 money line favorite with a total of 7. Two MLB games start at 9:40 PM ET. Los Angeles travels to San Diego with neither the Dodgers nor the Padres yet to commit to their starting pitcher for the game. Seattle is home against Texas, with the Mariners sending Marco Gonzales to pitch against the Rangers’ Jon Gray. The Mariners are a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies at 9:45 PM ET. Carlos Rodon takes the hill for the Giants to pitch against Ryan Feltner for the Rockies. San Francisco is a -215 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

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FBS Coaching Change ATS Results since 2018

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022

FBS Coaching Change ATS Results since 2018 The calendar has not even turned to October yet and three major conference FBS head coaches have already been fired. In most recent seasons there are only a handful of mid-season changes at FBS schools, but last season 15 head coaches were fired or resigned before the end of the regular season as there seems to be a quickening pace for programs to get in front of the line for the next hiring cycle.  Nebraska was a popular play-on team after Scott Frost was fired and there is a general perception that a coaching change might provide a spark for a program and could be a catalyst to saving the season if the move is made early. Nebraska and Arizona State both lost badly in their first games after making September coaching changes this season and the track record the past few years has a negative correlation in the games following a move, albeit with a small sample size and many circumstantial differences in each case.  An argument can be made that administrators don’t necessarily want interim coaches to succeed, potentially thwarting their preferred coaching choice for the future, and in the case of the three firings this season, the move came preceding one of the most difficult games of the season rather than ahead of a more favorable stretch of the schedule. Nebraska fired Frost ahead of hosting Oklahoma, Arizona State fired Herm Edwards ahead of hosting Utah. Geoff Collins was just fired ahead of playing at Pittsburgh for a tough pairing in the transition.  Below is a list of the mid-season FBS coaching changes since 2018 and the result immediately following the move. In the next game after a coaching change, those teams have gone 7-24 S/U and 10-21 ATS. Only eight teams out 29 mid-season coaching changes from 2018 and 2021 finished the season with a winning ATS record the rest of the way following making a move.  Most schools making a mid-season coaching change are having a difficult season, so it is not a surprise that losing results continue. There is however not much support in the recent instances to suggest there is any sort of coaching change spark provided to teams, nor a valuation decrease significant enough to warrant playing on teams in this situation. It is likely best to avoid Georgia Tech this week even with an elevated underdog price and it is likely worth steering clear of backing most teams that have made a coaching change during the season.  10/14/2018 Bowling Green 1-6 S/U, 2-5 ATS Mike Jinks firedNext Game: At Ohio (+16) S/U and ATS Loss 14-49Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 2-3 ATS 10/31/2018 Maryland 5-3 S/U, 5-3 ATS DJ Durkin firedNext Game: At Michigan State (+3.5) S/U and ATS Loss 3-24Record after coaching change: 0-4 S/U, 1-3 ATS  11/4/2018 Kansas 3-6 S/U, 4-5 ATS David Beaty firedNext Game: At Kansas State (+8.5) S/U Loss and ATS Win 17-21Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 3-0 ATS  11/11/2018 Louisville 2-8 S/U, 1-9 ATS Bobby Petrino fired Next Game: Hosting NC State (+16) S/U and ATS loss 10-52Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 11/18/2018 Colorado 5-6 S/U, 5-6 ATS Mike MacIntyre firedNext Game: At California (+11.5) S/U and ATS Loss 21-33Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS 11/18/2018 Texas State 3-8 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS Everett Withers firedNext Game: Hosting Arkansas state (+14) S/U and ATS Loss 7-33Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 11/18/2018 Charlotte 4-7 S/U, 6-5 ATS Brad Lambert firedNext Game: AT Florida Atlantic (+16.5) S/U and ATS Win 27-24Record after coaching change: 1-0 S/U, 1-0 ATS 9/30/2019 Rutgers 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS Chris Ash firedNext Game: Hosting Maryland (+14) S/U and ATS Loss 7-48Record after coaching change: 1-7 S/U, 3-5 ATS  11/3/2019 Florida State 4-5 S/U, 3-5-1 ATS Willie Taggart firedNext Game: At Boston College (+1) S/U and ATS Win 38-31Record after coaching change: 2-2 S/U, 1-3 ATS (lost bowl game)  11/10/2019 Arkansas 2-8 S/U, 2-8 ATS Chad Morris firedNext Game: At LSU (+41) S/U Loss and ATS Win 20-56Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 2-0 ATS  11/22/2019 UNLV 2-8 S/U 4-6 ATS Tony Sanchez was fired but remained to coach the final two games – which were both S/U and ATS wins  9/7/2020 Southern Miss 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS - Jay Hopson resignedNext Game: Hosting Louisiana Tech (-7) S/U and ATS Loss 30-31Record after coaching change: 2-6 S/U, 4-5 ATS  11/7/2020 Utah State 0-3 S/U, 0-3 ATS - Gary Andersen firedNext Game: Hosting Fresno State (+11) S/U and ATS Loss 16-35Record after coaching change: 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS 11/16/2020 South Carolina 2-5 S/U, 4-3 ATS - Will Muschamp firedNext Game: Hosting Missouri (+5.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-17Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 0-3 ATS  11/29/2020 Vanderbilt 0-8 S/U, 4-4 ATS - Derek Mason firedNext Game: Hosting Tennessee (+15.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-42Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS 9/6/2021 Connecticut 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS - Randy Edsall resignedNext Game: Hosting Purdue (+35) S/U and ATS Loss 0-49Record after coaching change: 1-9 S/U, 6-4 ATS  9/14/2021 USC 1-1 S/U, 1-1 ATS - Clay Helton firedNext Game: At Washington State (-3.5) S/U and ATS Win 45-14 Record after coaching change: 3-7 S/U, 3-7 ATS  9/26/2021 Georgia Southern 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS - Chad Lunsford firedNext Game: Hosting Arkansas State (-2) S/U and ATS Win 59-33Record after coaching change: 2-6 S/U, 5-3 ATS 10/19/2021 LSU 4-3 S/U, 3-4 ATS - Ed Orgeron resignedNext Game: At Mississippi (+9.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-31 Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 2-2-1 ATS  10/20/2021 Washington State 4-3 S/U, 4-3 ATS - Nick Rolovich firedNext Game: Hosting BYU (+3.5) S/U Loss and ATS Win 19-21 Record after coaching change: 3-3 S/U, 4-2 ATS  10/25/2021 Texas Tech 5-3 S/U, 4-4 ATS - Matt Wells firedNext Game: At Oklahoma (+19) S/U and ATS Loss 21-52 Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 3-2 ATS 10/31/2021 TCU 3-5 S/U,1-7 ATS - Gary Patterson resignedNext Game: Hosting Baylor (+7.5) S/U and ATS Win 30-28Record after coaching change: 2-2 S/U, 1-3 ATS 11/4/2021 Akron 2-7 S/U, 4-5 ATS - Tom Arth firedNext Game: At Western Michigan (+25) S/U Loss and ATS Win 40-45Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 1-2 ATS  11/8/2021 Massachusetts 1-8 S/U, 3-6 ATS - Walt Bell firedNext Game: Hosting Maine (+4.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-35Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 1-2 ATS  11/14/2021 Washington 4-6 S/U, 3-7 ATS Jimmy Lake – fired – had been suspended for final game Next Game: At Colorado (-6.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-20 Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS  11/15/2021 Florida International 1-9 S/U, 2-8 ATS Butch Davis firedNext Game: Hosting North Texas (+10.5) S/U and ATS Loss 7-49Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 11/16/2021 Virginia Tech 5-5 S/U, 4-6 ATS Justin Fuente firedNext Game: At Miami, FL (+7) S/U and ATS Loss 26-38 Record after coaching change: 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS (lost bowl game)  11/21/2021 Florida 5-6 S/U, 3-8 ATS Dan Mullen firedNext Game: Hosting Florida State (-3.5) S/U Win and ATS Loss 24-21Record after coaching change: 1-1 S/U, 0-2 ATS (lost bowl game)  11/23/2021 New Mexico State 1-10 S/U, 6-5 ATS Doug Martin firedNext Game: Hosting Massachusetts (-7) S/U and ATS Win 44-27Record after coaching change: 1-0 S/U, 1-0 ATS 11/21/2021 Troy 5-6 S/U, 4-7 ATS Chip Lindsey firedNext Game: At Georgia State (+6.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-37Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS 9/11/2022 Nebraska 1-2 S/U, 0-3 ATS Scott Frost firedNext Game: Hosting Oklahoma (+10.5) S/U and ATS Loss 14-49 9/18/2022 Arizona State 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS Herm Edwards firedNext Game: Hosting Utah (+16.5) S/U and ATS Loss 13-34 9/25/2022 Georgia Tech 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS Geoff Collins firedNext Game: At Pittsburgh (+22) October 1 

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2022-23 NHL Preview: Metropolitan Division

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022

The puck drops on the 2022-23 NHL season with a pair of games between the Sharks and Predators in Czechia beginning on October 7th. Before that, I'm running through quick previews of all 32 teams, continuing with the Metropolitan Division.Odds to win division in parentheses.Carolina Hurricanes (+195)I can't help but feel the Canes took the 'addition by subtraction' route by offloading constant distraction Tony DeAngelo and an aging Nino Niederreiter in the offseason. A pair of veterans, Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty, were brought into the fold although the latter will start the season on the shelf as he recovers from surgery to repair his achilles. The regular season hasn't been a problem for Carolina as it took top spot in the division last year and has been in the mix for a number of years. The question is whether the Canes can get over the hump come playoff time - just winning a round isn't enough anymore as expectations are seemingly sky-high on an annual basis, and rightfully so. An x-factor could be the performance of goaltender Frederik Andersen, who came up with a career year in 2021-22 but will need to match it to keep Carolina atop the heap in the Metro. Pittsburgh Penguins (+340)Evgeni Malkin is back to play Robin to Sidney Crosby's Batman for another year but it remains to be seen whether the once-dynamic duo has another Stanley Cup run in them. This seems to be a franchise unwilling to turn the page on an era that saw it win three Stanley Cups in relatively short succession. Yes, there is plenty of young talent in the fold to compliment veterans Malkin, Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Kris Letang but it just hasn't been enough to push the team from division contenders to Stanley Cup contenders in recent years. Pittsburgh's biggest offseason addition was steady veteran defenseman Jeff Petry. Instead of going out to get help between the pipes, the Pens will once again rely on Tristan Jarry, who has been frustratingly inconsistent throughout his career. New York Rangers (+350)After making a surprisingly deep playoff run last Spring, the Rangers are a popular Stanley Cup sleeper pick heading into this season. All of the right pieces appear to be in place with an All-World goaltender in Igor Shesterkin and a strong forward group led by Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. Despite their success last season, the Blueshirts didn't stand pat over the Summer, signing Vincent Trocheck to add even more offensive punch. Depth on the blue line could be an issue but New York has a couple of defensive anchors to work around in newly-named captain Jacob Trouba and rising star Adam Fox. Washington Capitals (+730)The Capitals made some interesting offseason moves, bringing in goaltender Darcy Kuemper from the Stanley Cup champion Avalanche and a pair of depth players up front in Marcus Johansson and Dylan Strome. Johansson is of course familiar with the team as this will be his third go-round with Washington. The most exciting part of the Caps 2022-23 season will likely be Alex Ovechkin's chase for the NHL's all-time goal-scoring record, currently held by Wayne Gretzky. It remains to be seen whether that ongoing storyline gives the Caps an emotional boost or proves to be a distraction over the course of the season.New York Islanders (+880)In a move that was questioned by many, the Islanders fired Barry Trotz following a disappointing 2021-22 campaign. It would have seemingly been difficult to fault Trotz for the Isles woes a year ago as they were handed a number of blows including an early-season Covid outbreak that put them behind the eight-ball in a crowded division. Apart from the ousting of Trotz, New York didn't make many offseason moves of note. It did lock up one of its young franchise cornerstones in defenseman Noah Dobson but Mat Barzal's free agency after this season is looming. A successful season would likely go a long way toward enticing Barzal to return for another run at the Cup on Long Island. New Jersey Devils (+2280)There are some good young pieces in place, namely captain Nico Hischier and 2022-23 breakout candidate Jack Hughes (who was on his way to a monster year before getting sidelined with an injury last season), but also a lot of holes in the New Jersey roster. That's especially true on the blue line and in goal where the Devils remain unsettled following a quiet offseason. You have to figure the Newark faithful are starting to get restless given it's been over a decade since the Devils last iced a team that had a legitimate shot at hoisting Lord Stanley's Mug. Head coach Lindy Ruff will likely need to work some serious magic to keep his team in contention for a Wild Card spot this season.Columbus Blue Jackets (+3870)It may seem strange to see the Blue Jackets being priced so generously given they landed one of the biggest free agent names in the league in Johnny Gaudreau. The problem is, there's not much depth behind the former Flames sniper. Elvis Merzlikins does inspire confidence between the pipes but the blue line needs help, as do the second-through-fourth lines up front. All indications are that Columbus is playing the long game to a certain extent as it has the services of Gaudreau for the next seven years. Given the steep return being offered, I don't mind taking a flyer with the Jackets in a division that could be a little more wide-open than most are expecting. Philadelphia Flyers (+6180)Will the John Tortorella experiment work in Philadelphia? One thing's for sure, he's going to be a polarizing character in Philly sports media circles. Curiously, the Flyers did little to bolster a roster than led to a last-place finish in the Metropolitan Division last season. It's becoming more evident with each passing season that Carter Hart isn't the answer in goal. Guys like James Van Riemsdyk and Sean Couturier will be relied upon heavily to shoulder the load offensively but they both have plenty of miles on their tires. Travis Konecny has to feel like he's been left on an island given the lack of offensive talent around him. While there's little pressure given the low expectations, I'm anticipating another tumultuous campaign in the City of Brotherly Love. 

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Thursday Night Football Primer

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022

Intriguing Thursday night battle between the AFC's last undefeated team and the defending conference champion, as the Miami Dolphins (3-0) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2).And it's Miami - which leads the all-time regular-season series (17-7) while the home team has won each of the past five meetings - that is catching the points from Cincy.The Bengals are -4 with a total of 47 points.Miami arrives after beating Buffalo, 21-19, in Week 3 to advance to 3-0 for the first time since 2018 and looks for its first 4-0 start to a season since 1995. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for 296 yards with one touchdown in the teams' last meeting against Cincinnati. Tagovailoa comes in ranked second in the NFL this season in passing yards (925) and tied for third in touchdown passes (eight). Now he aims for his third straight start with a completion percentage of 70 or higher and a passer rating of 120 or higher.His targets have done a good job in making this passing attack dangerous, as wide receivers Jaylen Waddle (342 receiving yards) and Tyreek Hill (317) rank second and third, respectively, in receiving yards this season. Last week, Waddle hauled in four passes and his third-career game with at least 100 receiving yards. He has 123 receptions in 19 career games, second-most by a player in his first 20 career games in league history. Hill had seven receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced the Bengals, which was the 2021 AFC Championship while he was with Kansas City, and happens to have a receiving touchdown in six of his seven career games on Thursday Night Football.On the other side of the ball, linebacker Melvin Ingram had two sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery last week, and registered a sack the last time he played Cincinnati, also in the 2021 AFC Championship when he was K.C. Ingram has 4 1/2 sacks and seven tackles for loss in eight career Thursday games.Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard had two pass defenses on Sunday and will gun for his sixth straight with a pass defensed. He hauled in an interception in the teams' last meeting and has 27 interceptions since 2016, the most among all players. Also from the secondary, safety Jevon Holland set career highs in tackles (10) and sacks (1.5) and added two passes defensed and his first career forced fumble.The defending AFC champion Bengals got their first win of the season last Sunday when quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 275 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 114.9 rating. Burrow has 4,467 passing yards (319.1 per game) and 30 total touchdowns (26 passing, four rushing) in 14 career home starts and will aim to become the first quarterback since Drew Brees with at least 300 passing yards and two touchdown passes in five consecutive home games. Burrow is also looking for his third straight on Thursday Night Football with at least 300 passing yards and two touchdown passes.From the same backfield, running back Joe Mixon has 13 touchdowns (11 rushing, two receiving) in his past 12 home games and tallied 115 scrimmage yards (93 rushing, 22 receiving) and a touchdown catch the last time he played at home against the Dolphins. Burrow's top target, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, recorded his 15th-career touchdown reception last week, tying for the second-most among all players since entering the league last season. Fellow wideout Tyler Boyd led the team with 105 receiving yards. Boyd registered a 72-yard touchdown reception the last time these teams played and he's gunning for his third in a row against Miami with a touchdown.From the stop unit, Miami defensive end Trey Hendrickson registered his first 2 1/2 sacks of the season and a career-high two forced fumbles against the Bills on Sunday. He is one of three AFC players - joining pretty good company in Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt - with at least 16 sacks (16 1/2) since 2021. Linebacker Logan Wilson has been a menace as he recorded his seventh-career interception last week, the most among linebackers since he entered the NFL in 2020. Safety Jessie Bates will be a ball hawk to watch after he registered his 11th-career interception against the Bills and recorded an interception against Miami in the teams’ last home game in Cincinnati/ Since 2018, Bates is one of two defensive backs with at least 400 tackles (414) and 10 interceptions (11).From a betting perspective:Miami has covered four straight since last season, and have also covered four in a row in the month of September.The Dolphins are on an 8-2 ATS win streak after notching a straight-up win. Be aware, however, Miami has stumbled at the window in Week 4 the past 17 years with a 3-14 ATS mark.The Bengals - who are on a 9-2 ATS roll since last season, including a cover in the Super Bowl - have covered seven in a row against winning teams, and are on an 8-1 ATS run against AFC foes.Unlike the Fins, the Bengals have found their footing in the fourth week of the campaign, having covered five of seven in Week 4.Miami has stayed Under in eight of 11 against AFC foes, and is on a 9-3 Under run in its last 12 September contests.The Bengals have stayed Under in six straight against AFC foes, and are on an 8-0 overall run in staying south of the total.These two have stayed under in five straight meetings in Cincinnati.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features action in MLB.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds at 12:35 PM ET. Bryce Wilson takes the ball for the Pirates to pitch against Luis Cessa for the Reds. Pittsburgh is a -120 money line favorite with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings).The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 6:10 PM ET. The Guardians tap Triston McKenzie to take the mound against the Rays’ Tyler Glasnow. Cleveland is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Detroit Tigers are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 6:40 PM ET. Matt Manning pitches for the Tigers against Daniel Lynch for the Royals. Detroit is a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves visit Washington to play the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET. The Braves turn to Jake Odorizzi in their starting rotation to pitch against the Nationals’ Josiah Gray. Atlanta is a -215 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees play in Toronto against the Blue Jays on TBS at 7:07 PM ET. Gerrit Cole gets the starting assignment for the Yankees to battle against Mitch White for the Blue Jays. New York is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. New York plays at home against Miami, with the Mets tapping Taijuan Walker to pitch against the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo. The Mets are a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Boston hosts Baltimore with Rich Hill pitching for the Red Sox against Dean Kremer for the Orioles. The Red Sox are a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games start at 7:40 PM ET. Philadelphia travels to Chicago with the Phillies tapping Aaron Nola to duel against the Cubs’ Hayden Wesneski. The Phillies are a -190 money line road favorite. Chicago is at Minnesota with Johnny Cueto pitching for the White Sox against Josh Winder for the Twins. The White Sox are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Milwaukee plays at home against St. Louis, with the Brewers turning to Brandon Woodruff to pitch against the Cardinals’ Jose Quintana. The Brewers are a -140 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Houston Astros host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 8:10 PM ET. Justin Verlander takes the hill for the Astros to pitch against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Houston is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET. The Angels tap Michael Lorenzen to pitch against the A’s Adrian Martinez. Los Angeles is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. Los Angeles plays at San Diego with Julio Urias pitching for the Dodgers against Joe Musgrove for the Padres. The Dodgers are a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Texas visits Seattle with the Rangers turning to Martin Perez to pitch against the Mariners’ George Kirby. The Colorado Rockies play at San Francisco at 9:45 PM ET. Jose Urena takes the mound for the Rockies against a starting pitcher yet to be determined by the Giants.

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NFL Scoring is Down

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022

Scoring is down in the NFL this season. For the first two weeks of the season, teams are averaging 21.41 points per game. In the first two weeks of the season last year, teams averaged 24.0 points per game. Let’s consider the implications of teams averaging 2.59 fewer points per game. The average combined score last year in the first two weeks of the season was 48 points. In the first two weeks of this season, the combined score is just 42.82. The scoring is down even more in this third week of the regular season. Through Sunday night’s low-scoring affair between San Francisco and Denver, teams are averaging only 20.37 points per game, and the average combined score for the previous fifteen games this week has been only 40.74 points. The betting market has yet to catch up with the under posting a 29-17-1 record this season. For prime-time games, the under has cashed in seven of the nine games. These under trends will probably fade as the oddsmakers and the betting market adjusts. Yet when we see the oddsmakers install an over/under below 40 as they did for the Monday night Cowboys/Giants game, we should not get scared off an under play. We had the under for that Monday night game, and bettors won with 39.5 tickets and pushed with 39s with Dallas winning the game, 23-16, to continue the lower-scoring trend. These numbers fly in the face of the conventional wisdom that the NFL has evolved into an offensive-dominated league. Certainly, rule changes designed to protect the quarterback and wide receivers running routes in the middle of the field have had an impact. Yet it would be more precise to indicate that these rule changes help the passing game. Yet with more teams passing the ball more often, scoring has not necessarily increased, as the early season numbers indicate. Perhaps offenses are simply behind the progress of defenses since more and more head coaches opt to not play their first-string offensive players in the preseason. More than a third of the opening week's starting quarterbacks did not take a snap in the preseason. Only three quarterbacks who did not play in the preseason led their team to a victory in Week 1, and two of those quarterbacks were playing against teams who also did not play their quarterback in the preseason. Kirk Cousins led Minnesota to a win against Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert led the Los Angeles Chargers to a victory against Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders. Only the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson started 1-0 after their quarterback did not play in the preseason. Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, and Ryan Tannehill were all losing quarterbacks in Week 1 after not playing in the preseason. These 11 quarterbacks combined for an 86.1 passer rating and a 6.9 yards per attempt average, which was a significant drop from their combined 100.4 passer rating and 7.7 yards per attempt average in 2021.If rust is the reason for the scoring decline, then it will be a short-term phenomenon. Yet some reasons support the notion that defenses may be catching up to the recent trends on offense that have emphasized the passing attack. More and more defenses are embracing the principles of Vic Fangio who deploys 3-4 base fronts with two high safeties. The two-high safety look became an effective counter to explosive offenses like Kansas City who thrived on big plays from Patrick Mahomes. Yet the Chiefs struggled against teams who played these two-high safety looks. These defensive concepts are now being used against other high-octane offenses like the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills. For those who consider NFL trends to be cyclical in nature, then it makes sense that it would only be a matter of time before defenses began to adjust, adapt, and catch up to these new offensive principles. Injuries and poor play on the offensive line are likely playing a role as well. Some observers are concerned that college football is not doing as good a job as they have in the past in training linemen for the next level. As more and more programs rely on pass-reliant passing offenses in the Air Raid vein, many offensive linemen are getting drafted by NFL teams despite the lack of experience playing with a hand on the ground at the line of scrimmage before the snap. Perhaps it is no coincidence that other teams are finding success running the football. As defenses play more nickel and dime sub-packages to defend against passing attacks, those teams that move in a different direction by emphasizing the run can take advantage of these schemes and lack of linebacker depth on the roster. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions are two teams with heavy run tendencies who are scoring plenty of points early this season. Bettors should consider these early under trends with a grain of salt. Yet it is important to monitor the possibility that the high-scoring games of the past which compelled oddsmakers to install the over/under in the 50s for many NFL games may be starting to wane.Good luck - TDG.

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NFL Week 4 Break Down

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022

Week 4BEST GAME – Kansas City at Tampa Bay (+2.5)Kansas City 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATSTampa Bay 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATSPatrick Mahomes is arguing with coaches. Tom Brady is destroying tablets. What will one of these guys do when one of them loses Sunday night and falls to .500? Light the stadium on fire? KC appears to be having all sorts of trouble after a non-existent running game and disastrous special teams play led to a loss to the Colts. Andy Reid is taking the hit for the Keystone Kops debacle, but the players have a lot of clean up. Speaking of cleaning up messes, Brady’s Bucs went nearly an entire game without a touchdown, then completely fudged up the potential 2-point conversion in a loss to the Packers. Who’s more pissed in the family – Gisele or TB12?WORST GAME – New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5)New York 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATSPittsburgh 1-2 SU 1-1-1 ATSDon’t expect a lot of great quarterback play in this one. Zach Wilson might make his season debut (just waiting for doctors to clear him), and the Jets will no doubt protect him by staying on the ground as long as they can move the chains. If he can’t go, it’s another dose of Joe Flacco. In Pittsburgh, there is some pressure to bench vet Mitch Trubisky and see what they have in rookie Kenny Pickett. Mike Tomlin is not the panicking kind, but if they fall to 1-3 on Sunday, it might be time for someone else under center.BIGGEST SPREAD – New England at Green Bay (-10.5)New England 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATSGreen Bay 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATSThe Patriots were finally able to put some points on the board, but still were trounced at home by the Ravens. And now they travel to Green Bay with the very real possibility that Break-Glass-in-Case-of-Emergency quarterback Brian Hoyer will be starting his first game since Week 4 of the 2020 season. NE is tight-lipped about the status of QB Mac Jones (high ankle sprain, on top of a back injury suffered in Week 2), but why risk the health of the future of your franchise in a game that is probably unwinnable anyway? BTW, the last time the Pats were double-digit dogs was in the 2002 Super Bowl, when they were +14.5 and beat the Rams.SMALLEST SPREAD – Denver at Las Vegas (-1.5)Denver 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATSLas Vegas 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATSIs it too late for Josh McDaniels to return to New England? Might be able to solve problems for both franchises. McDaniels was called on the carpet by owner Mark Davis after LV went 1 for 12 on third down and could score only twice in six red zone trips in a loss to Tennessee. Yikes. The books are betting on the losing streak to end, always a dangerous strategy. What should concern McDaniels is that through three games Russell Wilson hasn’t really been Russell Wilson, and this could be the game that that happens.LARGEST TOTAL – Buffalo at Baltimore (51.5)Buffalo 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATSBaltimore 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATSRight now Lamar Jackson is the best player in the National Football League. Whoever is No. 2 is so far behind that no one really cares. Jackson had three touchdown passes and more than 100 yards rushing vs. New England, something no one else has done more than once. The Bills have too much talent and pride to play a field position game in this one, so a wide-open battle can be expected.SMALLEST TOTAL – New England at Green Bay (39.5)This one opened at 42.5, but dropped three points on the news that Mac Jones was dealing with a high ankle sprain. The Patriots won’t talk about the injury, but the entire league knows that the Patriots will try to grind this one out whether or not Jones is a go. Green Bay’s offense appears to have taken a step back as well.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/27/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features action in MLB.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 6:10 PM ET. Shane Bieber takes the ball for the Guardians to pitch against Corey Kluber for the Rays. Cleveland is a -150 money line favorite, with the total set at 7. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 6:35 PM ET. The Pirates give the ball to Mitch Keller to pitch against the Reds’ Hunter Greene. Pittsburgh is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Kansas City Royals play at Detroit against the Tigers at 6:40 PM ET. Zack Greinke pitches for the Royals against Joey Wentz for the Tigers. Both teams are priced at -110 with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET. The Braves turn to Kyle Muller to pitch against the Nationals’ Paolo Espino. The New York Yankees are at Toronto against the Blue Jays at 7:07 PM ET. Jameson Taillon takes the hill for the Yankees against Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 7.5. Two more games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins with Carlos Carrasco taking the ball against Pablo Lopez. The Mets are a -210 money line favorite with a total of 7. Boston plays against Baltimore with Michael Wacha pitching for the Red Sox against Kyle Bradish for the Orioles. Boston is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three more games start at 7:40 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at Chicago with Zach Wheeler pitching for the Phillies against Marcus Stroman for the Cubs. Philadelphia is a -165 money line road favorite. Chicago is at Minnesota with the White Sox tapping Lance Lynn to pitch against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. Philadelphia is a -165 money line road favorite. St. Louis visits Milwaukee with Miles Mikolas pitching for the Cardinals against Adrian Houser for the Brewers. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 8.The Houston Astros play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 8:10 PM ET. Lance McCullers pitches for the Astros against Zach Davies for the Diamondbacks. The Astros are a -215 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET. The Angels turn to Jose Suarez in their starting rotation to pitch against James Kaprielian for the A’s. Los Angeles is a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at San Diego against the Padres with Tyler Anderson taking the ball for the Dodgers against Blake Snell for the Padres. Los Angeles is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Texas Rangers play at Seattle Mariners with Jesus Tinocho pitching for the Rangers against Robbie Ray for the Mariners. The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants turn to Alex Wood in their starting rotation against German Marquez for the Rockies. San Francisco is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.

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College Football: 3 Winless ATS Teams- Should You Buy Low?

by Kyle Hunter

Monday, Sep 26, 2022

We’re already to week five in the college football season. Time flies when you are having a good time. College football is a fan favorite for a reason. We’ve had yet another early season full of upsets and all kinds of craziness. In general, a good idea is to try to buy low and sell high. That is good stock market advice and college football betting advice as well. You want to try to find teams who have been burning money and buy in on them if there is a good reason to expect better results going forward. Let’s take a look at three winless teams ATS so far this year. Are they teams I’d be interested in backing going forward at all? They need to be evaluated on a case by case basis.  Georgia State Panthers (0-4 ATS This Season) Georgia State had a season win total of 7.5 before the season. There have been a lot of sharp bettors looking to bet on this team so far this year, but it hasn’t worked out. Georgia State’s defense has let them down. The Panthers have allowed at least 35 points in all four of their contests. I think this is a well-coached team and they have played a relatively tough schedule, especially for a Sun Belt program. I don’t have much interest in backing them against the triple option attack of Army this weekend, but going forward there should be some chances. The schedule lightens up later in the season for the Panthers, and virtually no one is going to want to bet them based on how they have been burning money. I think there will be some solid contrarian spots to bet on this team. Auburn Tigers (0-4 ATS This Season) Bryan Harsin was reportedly going to be fired if the Missouri Tigers beat Auburn this past Saturday. Auburn tried to give them the game, but Missouri refused to take it. That was one the craziest finishes in college football this year. Missouri missed a very short game winning field goal in regulation and then fumbled the ball right before the goal line when they would have won the game in overtime. Harsin is still in a really bad spot, and this Auburn team lacks a real identity at this point. I see no reason to try to be looking for a time to buy low on this squad. There will have to be some major changes here before I’m interested in backing them.  Utah State Aggies (0-4 ATS This Season)Utah State had an amazing run last season. The Aggies won the Mountain West Conference in stunning fashion in 2021. They entered the season last year with a win total of 3 or 3.5. They are now 1-3 overall and 0-4 ATS this season. Their lone win is over lowly UConn. They also lost at home 35-7 to Weber State. Logan Bonner threw 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. So far this year, Bonner has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Bonner threw a whopping 5 interceptions in Utah State’s home loss to UNLV last week. That was a game where Utah State actually won the box score, but finished a ridiculous -6 in turnover margin.Blake Anderson is a really good coach, and I do think Utah State will continue to fight the rest of the season. This is a team I will look for spots to bet on later in the year. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/26/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 26, 2022

The Monday sports card features action in the NFL and MLB.The second week in the National Football League concludes with the  Monday Night Football with the New York Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys on ABC, ESPN, and and the ESPN2 Peyton and Eli “Manningcast” at 8:15 PM ET. The Giants started the season 2-0 with a 19-16 upset victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Daniel Jones completed 22 of 34 passes for 176 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the victory. New York opened their season with a 21-20 upset win at Tennessee as a 5.5-point underdog. The Cowboys evened their record at 1-1 with a 20-17 upset victory at home against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cooper Rush, playing for the injured Dak Prescott, completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. Dallas started the season with a 19-3 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog. The Giants are a 1-point favorite, with the total set at 39 (all odds from DraftKings). Major League Baseball has four games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 6:35 PM ET. The Pirates lost for the ninth time in their last ten games after their 8-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Their record fell to 56-97 with the loss. The Reds ended a three-game losing streak with a 2-1 win at home against Milwaukee yesterday. They raised their record to 59-94 with the win. Roansy Contreras takes the ball for Pittsburgh to pitch against Chase Anderson for Cincinnati. The Pirates are a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Atlanta Braves travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET. The Braves have won two in a row with their 8-2 victory in 11 innings at Philadelphia on Sunday. Their 95-58 record places them 1 1/2 games behind the New York Mets for first place in the National League East. The Nationals are on a three-game winning streak after a 6-1 win in Miami yesterday. They raised their record to 53-99. Washington turns to Cory Abbott in their starting rotation to duel against a starting pitcher yet to be named by Atlanta. The New York Yankees play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 7:07 PM ET. The Yankees won their seventh straight game with their 2-0 victory against the Red Sox in a rain-shortened game stopped after six innings.  They improved their record to 94-58, which keeps them in first place by 8 1/2 games over the Blue Jays. Toronto won their second straight game with a 7-1 victory at Tampa Bay on Sunday. Neither New York or Tampa Bay has named their starting pitcher. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:10 PM ET. The Red Sox have lost six in a row after their loss to the Yankees last night. They have a 72-80 record. The Orioles lost for the second-straight time yesterday in a 6-3 loss at home to Houston in 11 innings. Their record dropped to 79-73 with the loss. With Seattle’s loss at Kansas City on Sunday, Baltimore is still four games behind the Mariners for the final wild card spot in the American League playoff race. Connor Seabold takes the mound for Boston to pitch against Jordan Lyles for the Orioles. The Red Sox are a -130 money line favorite with a total of 9.5.

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The Worst 2-0 Football Team in the NFL

by Oskeim Sports

Sunday, Sep 25, 2022

It’s the 2022 feel-good story, right? The New York Giants have struggled through three straight head coaches that didn’t last past Year 2. Brian Daboll, former Buffalo offensive coordinator, was hired in the offseason to try and get the Giants headed in the right direction. After two weeks of the 2022 NFL season, Daboll and the Giants are 2-0. The turnaround is happening!Or is it?The Giants WinsNew York has two wins so far this season. They beat Tennessee 21-20 in Week 1 after a gutsy two-point conversion call by Daboll. Last week, the Giants won when K Graham Gano hit a 56-yard field goal with just over three minutes to play against Carolina. Then, Daboll gambled and picked up a key first down late in the game to run the clock out.The combined record of the Titans and the Panthers at this point in the season is 0-4. Carolina hasn’t won more than five games in a few years and the Titans appear to be on a downward slide. It’s not like the Giants beat the Bills or Chiefs. The question then is – Are the Giants one of the worst 2-0 teams in NFL history?The HistorySince the NFL merger in 1970, there have been 11 teams that have started an NFL season 2-0 with a four-point or less point differential. The 2012 Philadelphia Eagles won their first two games that season by one point each. After the 2-0 start, the Eagles won just two more games and finished 4-12.History says that the Giants probably aren’t as good as their 2-0 record suggests. The teams in this category – 2-0 with a point differential of +4 or less – have gone on to finish their respective seasons with a .455 winning percentage. That is the equivalent of 7.7 wins and 9.3 losses in a 17-game season.Three of the 11 teams went on to 11-win season. The Giants happened to be one of them. In 2016, the Giants started 2-0 with a 20-19 win over Dallas and a 16-13 victory over the Saints. New York ended up 11-5 and earned an NFC wild card. The Giants got beat by Green Bay in the playoffs that year.Seattle in 2019 and Carolina in 2003 were the other two teams to start a season 2-0 with a +4 or less point differential and go on to win 11 games. That is not the norm. In looking at 2-0 teams regardless of their point differential, it is interesting to find that those teams finish the rest of the season with a .567 winning percentage.In 2022 so far, there are five other teams in addition to the Giants that are 2-0. Miami (+17), Buffalo (+55), Kansas City (+26), Philadelphia (+20), and Tampa Bay (+26) are all unbeaten after two games. When you don’t account for point differential, all 2-0 teams since the merger go on to win 9.6 games and lost 7.4 games per season.Are the Giants the Worst 2-0 in NFL History?The answer to that question will come when the 2022 season concludes, but precedent is not on the side of the Giants. Only five of the 11 teams on this list finished their season with a winning record.The Giants currently rank 18th in DVOA which, if you don’t know what that is, it’s a measure of the Giants taking into account the quality of their opponents. Even more telling is ESPN’s Power Index. The Giants are currently 27th out of 32 teams. They rank right behind No. 26 Atlanta. The Falcons are 0-2.

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