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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/29/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 29, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action.The fifth week in NCAAF college football continues with four games on national television between FBS opponents. Louisville travels to North Carolina State on ESPN at 1 PM ET. The Cardinals have won their first four games this season after their 56-28 victory against Boston College as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. The Wolfpack raised their record to 3-1 with a 24-21 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Friday. Louisville is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 55.5 (all odds from DraftKings).Two more NCAAF games kick off at 9 PM ET. Oregon State hosts Utah on FS1. The Beavers lost their first game of the season in a 38-35 upset loss at Washington State as a 3-point road favorite last Saturday. The Utes remained unbeaten in their first four games after their 14-7 victory against UCLA as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5.UTEP plays at home against Louisiana Tech on the CBS Sports Network. The Miners have lost three games in a row after their 45-28 upset loss at home to UNLV as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. The Bulldogs fell to 2-3 on the year with their 28-14 loss at Nebraska as a 20-point underdog last Saturday. UTEP is a 1-point favorite a total of 50.5. Cincinnati is at BYU on ESPN at 10:15 PM ET. The Bearcats have lost two games in a row after their 20-6 loss to Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Cougars lost their first game of the season with their 38-27 loss at Kansas as a 9-point underdog last Saturday. Cincinnati is a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 50.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins play in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET. The Cleveland Guardians visit Detroit to play the Tigers as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:05 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:07 PM ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play in New York against the Mets at 7:10 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against Washington at 7:20 PM ET as a -278 money-line favorite with a total of 10.5. The San Diego Padres play in Chicago against the White Sox at 7:40 PM ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees travel to Kansas City to play the Royals as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins are in Colorado to play the Rockies. The Chicago Cubs play in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 8:15 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angeles host the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Houston Astros at 9:40 PM ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 10:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in San Francisco against the Giants at 10:15 PM ET. Week 17 in the Canadian Football League begins with two games. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are at home against the Toronto Argonauts at 8 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 48. The British Columbia Lions host the Saskatchewan Roughriders at 10:30 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 49.

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Another 4-0 Start For Kansas Sets Expectations Even Higher This Season

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Sep 29, 2023

The Kansas Jayhawks opened their season with a 48-17 win against Missouri State before beating Illinois, 34-23. In week 3, Kansas played their first game on the road and survived a 31-24 victory at Nevada in a final score that should not have been that close. The Jayhawks held the Wolf Pack to 263 yards while gaining 442 total yards themselves. Kansas got inside Nevada’s 40-yard line seven times yet only came away with 24 points in those trips. Junior quarterback Jalen Daniels was injured to begin the season but he was back at full strength in that game after completing 21 of 27 passes for 298 yards. Yet the Jayhawks probably planned on revving up their rushing attack in preparation for their game against BYU with heavy winds expected up to 16 miles per hour in Lawrence at kickoff. Led by junior Devin Neal, Kansas was averaging 5.4 yards per carry and ranked 24th in the nation in rushing success rate. Neal had rushed for more than 300 yards already while averaging 3.8 yards after contact. If weather impacts the passing games for both teams, the Jayhawks would probably have the advantage..BYU had allowed their last eleven opponents last year to average 31.1 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. The Razorbacks' 38 points and 5.7 yards per play that they put up the week before was a return to that concerning level of play on the defensive side of the field. The Cougars allowed 408 yards per game which ranked 93rd in the nation for FBS programs. BYU was on the road to play an explosive Kansas offense that ranked 20th in the nation by averaging 35.6 points per game. The Jayhawks opened the game by recovering a Cougars fumble and returning it for a 22-yard defensive touchdown. They traded touchdowns before the Cougars scored the final ten points to go into halftime with a 17-14 lead. Yet the Jayhawks immediately responded in the second half by picking off a Kedon Slovis pass for a 30-yard interception that was returned for a second defensive touchdown. Kansas extended their lead to a 35-20 margin early in the fourth quarter before cruising to a 38-27 victory. Daniels was effective under center by completing 14 of 19 passes for 130 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He added 54 yards on the ground. The Jayhawks were able to control the game with their rushing attack with 221 yards on 37 carries. BYU ended the game with only nine rushing yards. Despite their favorable opening two games of the season against Sam Houston and Southern Utah, BYU went into that game averaging only 2.5 yards per carry in their rushing attack. They ranked last of all FBS teams in success rate in their ground game before playing Kansas. With their victory, the Jayhawks improved their record to 4-0 with a showdown in Austin against Texas looming on Saturday. Kansas opened last season with five straight victories before losing three in a row and six of their final seven games after a 55-53 loss to Arkansas in Liberty Bowl. The road gets much tougher with the heart of the Jayhawks' Big 12 schedule looming. The oddsmakers have installed Kansas as an underdog in the 17-point range against the Longhorns on Saturday. Yet with home against Central Florida, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Kansas State still pending, head coach Lance Leipold's team has a good chance to not only reach their second straight but end the season with a winning record. Good luck - TDG.

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How Far Can Georgia State Go After Its 4-0 Start?

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The Georgia State Panthers had opened their season with a 3-0 record before a showdown at Coastal Carolina last Thursday night that would go a long way to define their season. The Panthers came into the game on a 41-25 victory at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Panthers have one of the best quarterbacks from the group of five programs in senior Darren Grainger. The dual-threat quarterback had mostly been effective with his legs after rushing for 908 non-sack yards last year, yet he has developed his throwing skills this season. After struggling to establish the run against the 49ers in their third game of the season, Grainger completed 27 of 33 passes for 466 yards with three touchdown passes. He has thrown six touchdown passes this season without an interception going into the Thursday night showdown with the Chanticleers. He had thrown for 813 yards this year while completing 73% of his passes. He had added 216 rushing yards, and he had posted a quarterback rating of 78.3. Running back Marcus Carroll had rushed for 358 yards with 217 of those yards being after contact. The Panthers were playing a Chanticleers defense that had been vulnerable as they rank 111th in the nation in explosive plays allowed. Georgia State had covered the point spread in two of their three games, and they had covered the point spread in twenty-four of their last thirty-three games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They outgained Charlotte by a 571-356 yardage margin last week, and they had covered the point spread in four of their last five games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards. The Panthers had revenge on their minds as well after a 41-24 loss at home to Coastal Carolina last season on September 22nd. Georgia State were only 2.5-point underdogs in that game yet they had covered the point spread in eleven of their last sixteen games against conference opponents. The Panthers had covered the point spread in thirty-seven of their last fifty-eight games on the road. Earing a win against a Coastal Carolina team that still had Grayson McCall, Jr. at quarterback who led them to the Sun Belt Conference championship game would be a statement victory for head coach Shawn Elliott in his seventh year with the program. Georgia State started the game fast by scoring a touchdown in the first six minutes. After spotting the Chanticleers a field goal, the Panthers added two more touchdowns and went into halftime with a 17-3 lead. Coastal Carolina responded with a touchdown early in the second half yet the Panthers scored the next ten points to take a 17-point lead. The Chanticleers forced a fumble on Georgia State's 2-yard line which they ran into the end zone to make it a 10-point game but the Panthers kicked a late field goal to leave Brooks Stadium with a 30-17 upset victory after the oddsmakers installed them as a 5-point underdog. With the victory, Georgia State is 4-0 on the season with a big game at home this week against Troy. They get a bye week after that game before their homecoming game against Marshall.  Games at Louisiana-Lafayette and Georgia Southern remain challenging tests hosting James Madison and Appalachian State in as difficult a run as a team can face in the Sun Belt Conference. Winning the Sun Belt East may be too tall a task for the Panthers, yet earning their bowl game appearance since 2021 should be in the cards for Georgia State this season after their fast start. Good luck - TDG.         

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National League Futures Consideration

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Atlanta is the clear favorite to win the World Series and is priced accordingly in the National League market. The Dodgers are close behind, before a big gap to reach the other teams that will or could still be involved this October. Both are worthy candidates to make a World Series run but would not be worth entering the market presently at the current prices.  This is just the second season of the current 12-team playoff format and last season provided both extremes with a #1 seed and a #6 seed reaching the World Series. In the National League this season the same two teams will be the top two seeds: Atlanta and Los Angeles. Neither made the NLCS last season which was a pairing of the #5 and #6 seeds that won in the Wild Card round, San Diego and Philadelphia. When considering the current prices, one option stands out as a worthy consideration in the NL market right now.  CONSIDERATION: MILWAUKEE BREWERS +950 TO WIN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE Avoiding Atlanta’s side of the bracket seems to be a big advantage as Milwaukee could be a in favorable position, not having to play Atlanta or last year’s NL champion Philadelphia until a potential pairing in the NLCS. Should Milwaukee advance to the Division series, they would face the Dodgers with the NL West leaders certainly still a formidable draw, thus the significant underdog price.  The Brewers would have a clear edge in starting pitching in that series however as the Dodgers don’t have their typical postseason options of the past few seasons including Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, or Julio Urias. Clayton Kershaw is still pitching well but lacks an amazing postseason track record while the remaining starting options include trade deadline acquisition Lance Lynn who has been erratic this season, a trio of rookies: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan, or long reliever Ryan Yarbrough.  Milwaukee’s trio of starters Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta would give the Brewers an edge in several matchups with Milwaukee also possessing elite relief options led by Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, and Abner Uribe. Milwaukee’s lineup will finish with below average numbers for the regular season and the Brewers went just 20-25 vs. left-handed starters. Kershaw will be the only left-handed starting option for the Dodgers unless Yarbrough gets a start, while the current late-inning bullpen options include only two left-handers as well that aren’t considered in the top tier of the Los Angeles bullpen.  Milwaukee has also put together a .744 team OPS in the past month heading into the final days of the regular season for a significant improvement on the season numbers as the additions of Carlos Santana, Mark Canha, and Josh Donaldson have provided some proven power in the lineup, while July call-up Sam Frelick has also provided a spark.  Anything can happen in a three-game series, but the Brewers have an excellent home record and had good numbers vs. the Cubs, Marlins, and Reds, with an Arizona team Milwaukee struggled with appearing more likely to earn the #5 position to face the Phillies in the Wild Card series.  The Brewers have never won the World Series and have never appeared in the World Series as a National League team, switching leagues in 1998, so there isn’t much history on Milwaukee’s side. The Brewers did make the NLCS back in 2018 however and this will be the team’s fifth playoff appearance in the past six seasons as there is postseason experience, while Craig Counsell is generally regarded as one of the better in-game managers.  Given the high-end pitching for Milwaukee and a postseason path that is lining up preferably, Milwaukee may have a better opportunity than the current pricing suggests, even if the matching 1-5 season records vs. the Braves and Dodgers are tough to get past. Milwaukee does have a winning record vs. the Phillies and a winning road record this season, which is a consistent theme for World Series champions.   

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American League Futures Consideration

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Baltimore has stunned baseball to not only make the playoffs this season but has emerged as the likely #1 seed in the American League with that position nearly clinched. The numbers certainly support the Orioles as the most complete team in the AL field, but this is also a group with minimal playoff experience and a pitching staff that lacks the elite results of most past World Series champions.  Houston won the World Series last season as the #1 seed in the American League but over time that won’t likely prove to the be the norm with this being just the second season of the current 12-team format. On the National League side, the #6 seed made the World Series last season and after a tense finish in the AL West there are viable candidates to make a run in this year’s AL field with more attractive pricing than where the Orioles currently stand, with Baltimore last winning a playoff series in 2014 and last winning the World Series in 1983. Baltimore and Texas are close to clinching the #1 and #2 spots in the AL Bracket but don’t present attractive prices at +250 and +265 respectively to win the AL Pennant. Another team may, however, be worth consideration.  CONSIDERATION: TAMPA BAY RAYS +500 TO WIN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE Tampa Bay was the driver’s seat in the American League most of the season after a historic 29-7 start to the season. The Rays had a tough month of July to allow Baltimore an opportunity to move ahead in the AL East and even while Tampa Bay has played well down the stretch, they will have to go through the Wild Card round barring a collapse for Baltimore.  A surprise early in the season was the bullpen for the Rays struggling despite the success of the team, with the offense and starting staff carrying the team. Injuries have greatly hurt the Rays potential on paper with Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs lost for the season. The bullpen for the Rays climbed into the top 10 in the season numbers late in the season and currently leads MLB with a 2.77 FIP from relievers in the past month.  Tyler Glasnow returned to the Rays in June and gives Tampa Bay a true ace to lead the rotation, while Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, and Aaron Civale have all pitched well enough to earn a postseason start. In a three-game wild card series with Glasnow starting Game 1, the Rays have plenty of options to work with to cover two other games with its mix of elite relievers and capable starting options.  Should Tampa Bay advance, they would draw the top seeded Orioles who won eight of 13 games vs. the Rays this season but with even scoring at 48-48. The Orioles will have won only a few more games than the Rays on the season as Tampa Bay will have the second best record in the American League and a stronger scoring differential than Baltimore to warrant only a minimal underdog price. The Orioles with a young team and without playoff experience will also be in the less than ideal position of having nearly a week off to potentially zap the team’s late season momentum and build pressure in Baltimore.  In the Wild Card round it isn’t confirmed who Tampa Bay will draw, but right now it would be Toronto, with the Jays 128 runs worse than the Rays in scoring differential this season. Toronto lacks formidable starting pitching with Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt inconsistent performers at the top of the rotation while the Toronto bullpen ranks 18th in the past month in WAR while posting a 4.57 ERA.  Tampa Bay is 32-18 since August 1 while the Blue Jays are 28-23, rarely rising above an average level for significant stretches all season. Toronto will also face the Rays in the final regular season series with the Jays likely needing to go all out to win those games while the Rays will be unlikely to use any meaningful pitching options in those games. That would set up a possible advantage in the Wild Card round that would be in St. Petersburg, where the Rays have a current MLB best 53-28 home record.  The Rays could also draw Houston who went 7-0 in the AL playoffs on the way to winning the World Series last season, but the Astros didn’t face the Rays last season and Tampa Bay beat Houston in the 2020 ALCS. Tampa Bay was upset by Cleveland in the Wild Card round last season with only one run scored in 24 innings, but this was a World Series team in 2020 and this year the Rays have 837 runs with a few games to go for the season after scoring only 666 runs in the 2022 regular season for a dramatic improvement. Texas is the only team that has scored more among AL teams this season as the Rays would have a sizeable edge at the plate vs. Toronto, Houston, or Baltimore.  In the current bracket, the Rays would not have to face the Twins or Mariners until the ALCS with Minnesota and Seattle (should they get in) possessing the best starting pitching among AL playoff teams as the thin depth in the rotation for Tampa Bay may not be as big of a factor as it might appear to be on paper in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is also the only team besides the Astros in the playoff field with significant playoff experience and recent playoff success, as Tampa Bay should be priced as a more serious threat in the AL Pennant chase. 

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Edmonton Oilers: Could This Be The Year?

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The Edmonton Oilers have a history of hockey success. Their passionate fans expect their team to be good. Those expectations are realistic given that the Oilers have arguably the best player in the world. Connor McDavid topped the 150 point (64 goals, 89 assists) mark last season. With McDavid expected to have another monster campaign, the Oilers are favored to win the Pacific Division. Can they break through and take the next step?The Oilers have enjoyed plenty of recent regular season success. The postseason has largely been a different story. Last year, they got knocked out in the second round by the Vegas Knights. Before that, they were swept by the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals. In each case, the team which defeated them went on to win the Cup.Another strong regular season is in the forecast. The Oilers are projected to reach 105.5 to 106.5 points, depending on which sportsbook one is looking at. McDavid gets most of the headlines but his co-star Leon Draisaitl (52 goals, 76 assists) is also a bigtime producer. The Oilers made some tweaks to the supporting cast and are feeling confident. It seems like McDavid's been around a long time but he's still only 26. He's already done everything except win the Stanley Cup. The Oilers superstar knows that needs to change:  "I think hockey is a team game, but with that being said, all those great guys have won before and it’s certainly something that we’re after in Edmonton ... I certainly feel that the greats have all won and that’s what you have to do." Speaking of "the greats," McDavid was 15 when he first met Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby. Crosby, now 36, has achieved the ultimate success. He was the first overall pick 10 years before McDavid was drafted number one. Connor would like to meet Crosby again, when it really counts: "I’ll take a Cup Final against anybody. But against Sid, it would be incredible."Draft Kings currently has Edmonton at +1000 to win the Stanley Cup. Call me crazy but I think this just might be the year ... Will Rogers

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NFL Week 4: VW's Power Rankings

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Who are these Miami Dolphins, and why are they the best team in football?I certainly think they can leapfrog the field, but I'm going to keep it tame for now and give them a respectful boost up the ladder.After their annihilation of the Denver Broncos last week, the Dolphins are the 12th team in the last 20 years to be 3-0 SU and against the spread (ATS), but be listed as an underdog in their fourth game. And those previous 11 teams in the same role, they went 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS as an underdog.Miami is catching between 2 1/2 and 3 from the Bills in Buffalo this week.Let's get started with this week's rankings, which get quite the shake-up after last week's bottom-feeding teams winning:THE UPPER TIER1. Philadelphia (3-0) - The Eagles' 14-point road win in Tampa keeps the defending NFC champs atop the list. This week they host division-rival Washington in a game they have to be careful in not getting trapped. (Last week 1)2. Kansas City (2-1) - I'm not sure what the bigger story was last week, the Chiefs finally breaking out of their offensive shell, or a swarm of Swifties buying Travis Kelce jerseys. Heads-up, Taylor Swift is confirmed to attend this week's game at the Meadowlands. (Last week 2)3. San Francisco (3-0) - If you were to ask me who will be in the Super Bowl representing the NFC, I'd have to say I've been more impressed by the 49ers than the Eagles. This might be the most balanced team in the conference. (Last week 3)4. Miami (3-0) - And if you ask me to name an opponent for the 49ers from the AFC, I think the Dolphins have been the most impressive on the junior circuit with balance on both sides of the ball. This game in Buffalo will tell us plenty. (Last week 6)5. Buffalo (2-1) - The Bills didn't disappoint last week, following their blowout win over Las Vegas with another big showing against the Commanders. As I said above, this visit from the Dolphins will tell us plenty. (Last week 7)6. Cincinnati (1-2) - It was quite telling to see the Bengals respond Monday night, with quarterback Joe Burrow hobbling about. This team could become scary once the offense catches up to its defense. (Last week 8)7. Dallas (2-1) - The Cowboys were the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to score at least 70 points and allow 10 or fewer points through its first two games of a season. Then they lost 28-16 in Arizona. Ouch! (Last week 4)8. Baltimore (2-1) - How the Ravens lost at home to Indianapolis is beyond me. It drives them down a few slots on the rankings, and now they face a tough road test in Cleveland. (Last week 5)9. Seattle (2-1) - After losing the season opener at home, the Seahawks have won two in row, coming from behind to win in Detroit and then blasting Carolina in Seattle last week. A trip to the Meadowlands for a Monday night showdown against the Giants could reveal more. (Last week 11)10. Detroit (2-1) - The Lions responded to a disappointing home loss to the Seahawks by flexing their defensive muscles and shutting down Atlanta. If they plan on taking over the NFC North, the Lions better roar at Lambeau. (Last week 12)11. L.A. Chargers (1-2) - Los Angeles was lucky to come out of the Twin Cities. Some may say this team should be 0-3, but it's all about finding ways to come away with a win. This week should be easier against the hapless Raiders. (Last week 13)12. Cleveland (2-1) - The Browns took care of Tennesee quite easily last week, but this week's visit against Baltimore will be a different story. Something to be said about having one of the stingiest defenses in the league. (Last week 14)13. Green Bay (2-1) - Jordan Love had career highs in completions (22) passing yards (259), and had his first-career game with both a passing and rushing TD in Week 3. Love has a TD pass in each of his first 4 career starts. (Last week 15)14. N.Y. Jets (1-2) - Another loss by the Jets and it's quite clear how tough of a season this will be unless they bring someone in to quarterback the offense. Zach Wilson will make a great QB coach in Provo someday, but he's not the answer for the Jets. (Last week 9)15. Jacksonville (1-2) - Okay, so maybe the Jaguars aren't the next AFC South powerhouse. Shocked by what was one of the two worst teams in the league, the Jags now have to travel abroad. Will they be in the lower tier next week? (Last week 10)16. Pittsburgh (2-1) - The Steelers received an assist from Raiders coach Josh McDaniels last week, there's no doubt about it. But it's hard to argue how the Black and Gold is finding ways to win and could find themselves in first place after Sunday. (Last week 17)THE LOWER TIER: 17. New Orleans (2-1) - Let's see how this team performs while Derek Carr is sidelined. (Last week 16)18. New England (1-2) - The Pats got their first win over a tattered and torn Jets team. They face the angry Cowboys this week. (Last week 23)19. Minnesota  (0-3) - The Vikings' demise is no shock to me whatsoever. See what happens when you play a tough schedule? (Last week 18)20. N.Y. Giants (1-2) - Only dropping the Giants one slot considering they lost to the best team in the NFC. (Last week 19)21. Washington (2-1) - Last week I asked if the Eric Bienemy factor was kicking in with the Commanders? Then they couldn't find the end zone. (Last week 20)22. Atlanta (2-1) - I still don't know what to think of Desmond Ridder. This week's trip to London could reveal plenty. (Last week 21)23. Tampa Bay (2-1) - Only a one-slot drop for a team that lost to the defending NFC champs. (Last week 22)24. Indianapolis (2-1) - Anthony Richardson gets sidelined, and the Colts go into Baltimore and win outright. (Last week 28)25. Las Vegas (1-2) - The Raiders may or may not have the worst coach in the NFL. (Last week 24)26. Denver (0-3) - Winless under Sean Payton and the Broncos just allowed more points in one game than 18 other teams have allowed through three weeks. (Last week 25)27. Tennessee (1-2) - I knew the Titans' overtime win over the Chargers was a fluke. (Last week 27)28. Houston (1-2) - I told you last week the Texans were better than their 0-2 record and that they'd click at some point. They did. (Last week 31)29. Arizona (1-2) - Looks like the Cardinals learned their lesson about blowing a big lead. From disaster vs. the Giants to an upset of the Cowboys. (Last week 32)30. L.A. Rams (1-2) - A short week for the Rams, who travel to Indianapolis for what will be a tough test vs. a Colts team off a win. (Last week 29)31. Carolina (0-3) - The Panthers might find themselves at the bottom of this list within the next few weeks. Things are bad in Charlotte. (Last week 26)32. Chicago (0-3) - I was afraid this was going to happen. I do hope Justin Fields finds a better home. (Last week 30)

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Top 10 College Football Rankings - Week 5

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The PAC 12 Dominates this Poll.   1. USC USC had a very rusty performance coming off a bye week. Although the defense gave up too many big plays against a shaky offense and struggled at times with tackling, this unit did create plenty of havoc (eight sacks and 14 TFL). USC quarterback Caleb Williams still owns a clean line of 300 passing yards per game with 15 TDs and no interceptions. We expect USC to prove why it’s one of the best teams in college football. Now, it's the Trojans turn to face Colorado and take advantage of their talents. 2. Texas The Texas Longhorns have come out of the gate slow a few times this season, but what matters is they’re finishing with victories. The Longhorns are 4-0 for the first time since ’12. Quarterback Quinn Ewers was efficient (18 of 23 for 293 yards and one touchdowns), while the defense dominated (allowed just 4.3 yards per play) in a 38-6 victory at Baylor. The upcoming two-week stretch against Kansas and Oklahoma could allow Texas to take control of the Big 12 race. 3. Oregon The defense allowed just 199 yards and six points to a Buffaloes’ attack that entered Saturday scoring 41.3 points per contest. Total domination. That’s the easiest way to sum up Oregon’s 42-6 win over Colorado. The Ducks rank seventh in the FBS with 232 rushing yards per game, and the defense totaled seven sacks of Shedeur Sanders. The Ducks averaged 7.2 yards per play behind a standout performance from quarterback Bo Nix (28 of 33 for 276 yards). The Ducks face Stanford (/27.5) in Week 5. 4. Ohio St  The Buckeyes won a thriller in South Bend, as running back Chip Trayanum scored a touchdown with one second remaining to secure a 17-14 road victory. We talked about Ohio State's defense, and that's was the substance behind Day's postgame rant after the Notre Dame victory. Quarterback Kyle McCord continued his development with a couple of clutch throws late and finished with 240 yards on 21 completions. Ohio State will have a bye week to prepare for that Big Ten schedule.  5. Florida St The Seminoles beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime. Florida State’s defense surrendered 429 yards and struggled on third downs (six conversions on 14 attempts), but a fumble return for a touchdown by this unit, along with timely plays by quarterback Jordan Travis and receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson helped the ‘Noles end a seven-game losing streak to Clemson. The two marquee wins are pushing the Seminoles even further up the latest college football rankings. The bad news? Florida State rushed for JUST 22 yards on 22 attempts, a problem that could resurface against an elite front-line defense. 6. Michigan   The Wolverines had a sluggish start against Rutgers but pulled away for a 31-7 victory in coach Jim Harbaugh’s return to the sidelines after a three-game suspension. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 214 yards on 15 completions. It's the first road game of the season playing at Nebraska. Should Jim Harbaugh be very concerned, Michigan’s schedule sets up for this team to be 9-0 in November when it faces Penn State. That will be the Wolverines’ first test of the season. 7. Georgia The Georgia Bulldogs haven’t been quite as impressive in 2023 as they were a year ago. The Bulldogs have yet to put together a complete performance, but as coach Kirby Smart’s team has showed at several points so far in '23, it can turn it on when needed to put an opponent away. Kirby Smart needs to preach the importance of fast starts this week. Smart’s defense remains one of the best in college football, Carson Beck is proving to be extremely efficient and the three-headed tandem at running back should keep the Bulldogs undefeated through October. Auburn (-14.5) is on deck. 8. Washington   Another week, another elite offensive performance by the Huskies. Washington used 304 passing yards and four scores by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to crush California 59-32. Should the Huskies be ranked higher? Washington leads the FBS with 593.2 yards per game, and Michael Penix (209.58) has the second-highest passer efficiency rating behind USC's Caleb Williams. Washington faces an improved Arizona (-18.5) in Week 5, so they can't look ahead.  9. Penn St Thanks to a strong effort on both sides of the ball, Penn State thoroughly dominated Iowa in a 31-0 win on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions allowed only 76 yards and limited the Hawkeyes to just four first downs. Quarterback Drew Allar was sharp (25 of 37 for 166 yards and four scores) against one of the Big Ten’s top defenses and guided the Penn State offense to three touchdowns in the second half. Penn State has the other elite Big Ten defense in the mix. The Nittany Lions have allowed 15 points or less in all four of their games, including the shutout against Iowa. Are we under-valuing the Nittany Lions a touch? 10. Utah  Without quarterback Cam Rising for the fourth consecutive game, Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes pulled out another victory. Utah continues to grind out victories under the radar. Utah’s defense dominated in a 14-7 victory over UCLA. The Utes limited the Bruins to 243 yards (3.6 yards per snap), recorded seven sacks and 11 tackles for a loss, and allowed just three third-down conversions on 16 attempts. Quarterback Cam Rising continues to rehab a torn ACL, and Nate Johnson continues to do enough to win games in his place. Utah travels to Oregon State as a (+3.5) underdog for a Friday nightmatchup. 

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College Football's Game Five Nosedive

by Tom Stryker

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

College Football’s Game 5 NosediveAs we approach the halfway point of the college football season, a number of squads have been put on notice.  Are you going to be a pretender or a contender?  With most FBS teams scheduled to play 12 regular season games, that needs to be determined as quickly as possible or it might be too little too late. Before the mid-point of the season hits next week, I researched how well teams did in a game five settings.  There were a number of things that I looked at, but none more important than those schools that owned a critical .500 record.  In my opinion, college teams sitting at 2-2 SU after four games were locked into a must-win situation.  It was my expectation that these squads would do very well both SU and ATS.  The best of what I discovered was far from that. As you know, with the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of outstanding technical situations that have performed very well.  My “College Football’s Game Five Nosedive” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of profit over the years.  Take a look at this beauty. Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any 2-2 SU game five college favorite priced at -4.5 or more provided they are playing a conference foe and check in without confidence off back-to-back straight up losses.  43-Year ATS Record = 39-13-2 ATS for 75.0 percent  This Week’s Play = MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE Surprisingly, these conference favorites in need of a win to get off the .500 mark continue to tank provided they take the field of battle without momentum off a pair of straight up losses.  After knocking the snot out of South Florida and Houston Christian, Western Kentucky has fallen on hard times in its last two games against Ohio State and Troy.  The knee-jerk reaction would be to jump all over the Hilltoppers thinking they would bounce back.  According to this college system, that is exactly what you don’t want to do.  There is one special parameter that can be added to this situation that really makes it pop.  If our “play against” side was priced as a favorite or a short underdog of +6 or less in its last game, this system falls to a woeful 6-24-1 ATS.  Western Kentucky was a +4-point pooch at Troy last Saturday and the Hilltoppers apply to this negative wagering situation. Good Luck with MTSU plus the points at WKU on Thursday evening.

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Vancouver Canucks Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Vancouver Canucks' fans annually get excited around this time of the year. In late September, their team always provides reason for hope. Yet, year after year, that hope and excitement fades away. Will this season be any different? Vancouver got off to an 0-7 start to its 2022/23 season. Things were bad from the get-go. The Canucks didn't get their first win until 10/27. They ended up missing the playoffs. Again. The last time they made the postseason was 2020. They've been there 28 times in 52 years. The current preseason got off to an ominous start when Vancouver lost 10-0 to Calgary. Coach Rich Tocchet commented: “I know people don’t want to hear it, but it’s a learning experience.”There is reason for hope though. The Canucks have a legitimate star in Elias Pettersson. Vancouver's best player gets it done at both ends of the ice. He finished with 102 points last year. Captain Quinn Hughes anchors a blue line which is stronger and deeper than it's been in recent seasons. The Canucks are counting on a bounce-back season from goalie Thatcher Demko. He was great when the Canucks last made the playoffs but struggled last year. The improvement behind the blue line should help Demko's cause. The Canucks are currently about +1400 to win their division and +2300 to win the West. They're going to be better but they won't be good enough to win the division or conference. They do seem like a solid bet to go over their projected number of 88.5 regular season points though. If they do that, a return to the playoffs is likely in the cards ... Will Rogers

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/28/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, and MLB action.Week 4 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Detroit Lions traveling to Green Bay to play the Packers on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Lions raised their record to 2-1 with a 20-6 victory at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. The Packers improved to 2-1 with their 18-17 upset victory at home against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit is a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings).The fifth week in NCAAF college football begins with one game on national television between FBS opponents. Two NCAAF games kick off at 7:30 PM ET. Tulsa hosts Temple on ESPN. The Golden Hurricane have a 2-2 record after their 22-14 upset victory at Northern Illinois as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. The Owls fell to 2-2 with a 41-7 loss to Miami (Florida) as a 22.5-point underdog on Saturday. Tulsa is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Western Kentucky plays at home against Middle Tennessee on the CBS Sports Network. The Hilltoppers are on a two-game losing streak after their 27-24 loss at Troy as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Blue Raiders fell to 1-3 this season with their 31-23 upset loss to Colorado State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Western Kentucky is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 60.5.Jacksonville State is at Sam Houston State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Gamecocks raised their record to 3-1 with their 21-0 victory against Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Bearkats are winless in their first three games after their 38-7 loss at Houston as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Jacksonville State is a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 36.5. Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the Oakland A’s at 1:10 PM ET as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play in Detroit against the Tigers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Philadelphia to play the Phillies at 6:05 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play in Baltimore against the Orioles at 6:35 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Miami Marlins travel to New York toplay the Mets at 7:10 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs play in Atlanta against the Braves at 7:20 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:40 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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NCAA FB: 4 Winless ATS Teams Who Might Be Underrated Now

by Kyle Hunter

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are winless against the spread so far this year. These are teams that I believe could have value moving forward.  Georgia Bulldogs (0-3-1 ATS) Who would have expected that the number one team in the country would be winless against the spread at this point in the season? Georgia has played a very weak schedule. UT Martin, Ball State, and UAB are all terrible teams. South Carolina is the only pretty good team they have played so far. Georgia screwed around in that game and they were down 14-3 going into the locker room. They flipped the switch in the second half and won. The Bulldogs are just 51st in yards per carry against this weak schedule. They only have five sacks on the season defensively. The Bulldogs stat profile isn’t great. Having said all of this, Georgia is the most talented team in the country. The Bulldogs are going to turn it on at some point.  Michigan Wolverines (0-4 ATS) Here is #2 in the nation! Michigan has typically been a team that crushes weaker opponents. The Wolverines were amazing in the large favorite role in the last six or eight years under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh missed the first three games due to his suspension. Maybe that bothered the team and threw off the rhythm a bit. Michigan is still a great team, and the Wolverines are now not thought of as highly in the marketplace. The Wolverines are really strong in the trenches, and that should help them win and cover a lot of games in the poor weather games in the Big Ten. I’m not going to adjust Michigan much at all in my power ratings. Harbaugh’s team will get it going against the spread too.  UTSA Roadrunners (0-4 ATS) UTSA is a team I expected to be very good this year. So far this season I’ve been wrong on this bunch. They are winless ATS on the season, but they have a bye week this weekend and the hope is Frank Harris will be back soon. Harris is a star, but he has been hobbled this year, and the backups had to play against Tennessee. UTSA’s schedule gets much softer later this year. The Roadrunners still play UAB, E Carolina, Rice, and USF at home. UTSA still has a much higher talent level than many of the teams they will play against in this conference. I think we’ll have a chance to buy low on UTSA soon.  Troy Trojans (0-4 ATS) Troy was a covering machine last year. Now, they are 0-4 ATS so far this season. Troy doesn’t have an elite defense like they had last year, but they are still very solid on the defensive end. The Trojans offensive line has been abused by strong defensive lines in the non-conference slate. While it will still be a question mark, there are quite a few weaker defensive lines in the Sun Belt on their schedule the rest of the way. 

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