Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

NCAA FB: 4 Unbeaten ATS Teams Who Might Be Overrated Now

Friday, Sep 22, 2023

I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are unbeaten against the spread so far this year in college football. I think there are signs these teams could be a bit overvalued at this point. Let’s find out who they are and what makes them look overvalued. Indiana Hoosiers (3-0 ATS) Indiana is 3-0 ATS after outperforming expectations against Ohio State, Indiana State, and Louisville. The Hoosiers hasn’t given up big plays, but I’m concerned by their #105 defensive success rate rating out of 133 teams in the country. Indiana also isn’t explosive at all on offense. They are 101st in the nation in explosiveness. The Hoosiers have been big dogs twice, but now they are favored against Akron on Saturday. Indiana then goes into a very rough part of their schedule. They’ll play at Maryland, at Michigan, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State, and vs. Wisconsin. That’s a brutal stretch for any team. Indiana doesn’t have the depth you would want to have heading into that kind of slate. Arizona Wildcats (3-0 ATS) I think Arizona is well coached, but the Wildcats have a few major weaknesses. First, Arizona has a terrible secondary. The Wildcats haven’t played anyone who can take advantage of that weakness. That is about to change! After a game at Stanford- Arizona will go to USC and Washington State. They then play Oregon State, UCLA, and Colorado. The Pac 12 is very tough this year (a shame they are breaking up after this season), and I think Arizona will have a hard time beating those more talented teams. Jayden De Laura is a QB I like, but he has thrown 5 interceptions already this year and he does take too many chances. The defense has allowed only 33% on third down conversions this year. I don’t think that can continue. UNLV (3-0 ATS) UNLV is -1.17 yards per play margin on the season. Michigan hasn’t been running up scores the way some expected (they were without Harbaugh) and Vanderbilt is far worse than people expected. UNLV only has 4 sacks in three games. The Rebels have to be able to generate more of a pass rush to hide their major weakness in the secondary. UNLV is 114th in opposing QBR allowed. Their offensive line ranks 119th in havoc allowed. This isn’t the profile of a team that will just keep covering spreads. Sam Houston State (2-0 ATS) In two games against BYU and Air Force, Sam Houston is averaging just 2.62 yards per play. That is just brutal. BYU and Air Force are decent defenses, but they aren’t that good! The Bearkats of Sam Houston have only been into the red zone one time all season. Though their defense is very solid, it is going to be hard for them to keep covering spreads without any help from the offense. They want to run the ball, but the offensive line just isn’t good enough. They are averaging only 1.37 yards per carry.

Wayne Allyn Root Week 3 NFL Top 10

by Wayne Root

Friday, Sep 22, 2023

Reminder; On any given Sunday…1. Dallas Cowboys (2-0) Wow. Jerry has to be pleased. Still America's Team and they’re just the fifth in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to score at least 70 points while allowing no more than 10 points collectively in its first two outings. They effectively defeated the overmatched Giants and post-Rodgers Jets. Let’s see how they do this week as a -12.5 road favorite against a undermanned Arizona team. 2. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) So talented, so impressive, so consistent and cannot do better than winning your first two games on the road. The 49ers are home the next three weekends and are very likely to be 4-0 heading into a must watch Week 5 Sunday nighter against Dallas. It’s anybody’s guess how their home game against the NY Giants will unfold this Sunday. 3. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) They’re repping last years team so far. Philadelphia is a consistent power franchise. The Eagles that started 8-0 on the way to the NFC crown in 2022 could well match that with the Bucs, Commanders (twice), Rams, Jets and Dolphins ahead of a huge division game in a Week 9 visit from Dallas. They are playing on the road in Tampa this week on MNF. 4. Miami Dolphins (2-0) Overlooked in the offseason, they might be really good. QB Tua Tagovailoa wouldn't mind playing New England every week, improving to 5-0 against Bill Belichick. With two road wins in the bank the AFC East is theirs at this time. They should be 3-0 after their home game against the Broncos. 5. Baltimore Ravens (2-0) Emerging as early favorite in AFC North as expected by many. They have their team off to a hot start ny benefitting from a scalding defensive pace as Baltimore's D is allowing 23 yards in the first quarter this season. New OC Todd Monken's offense has made QB Lamar Jackson look much better in Week 2. He has an easy game at home as an -8 favorite against the Colts coming up. 6. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) The Chiefs avoided a 0-2 start as the reigning champs retain top billing amid AFC teams that have generally sputtered out of the gate. No one says it’s easy to defend their crown but they got an important win on the road against Jacksonville. However, the 1-1 looks pretty good with TE Travis Kelce and DT Chris Jones back and performing well. They should be OK after knocking off the Bears on Sunday. 7. Buffalo Bills (1-1) Josh Allen got it right in a big way in Week 2 and his team now has a +22 points differential. The clean turnover sheet for QB Josh Allen is great with no red zone nightmares last game. But how encouraging is the offensive balance with RB James Cook setting career highs Sunday with 17 carries and 123 yards? They have ground to make up and play an improved Commanders team on the road this Sunday. 8. Detroit Lions (1-1) Detroit is just a play or two from 2-0 and must not let the Seattle OT loss get in their heads. Hopefully Sunday's loss to Seattle won't be as penal as the 2022 defeat that cost Detroit a playoff berth. They are tied with Green Bay but that slick information is only needed for motivation as the rest of the NFC North also lost in Week 2. They have another home game this week they can win. 9. Atlanta Falcons (2-0) The Falcons are 2-0 in two home games and some wonder how. Undefeated Atlanta is running more than 56% of the time … and why not with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, arguably the league's top RB tandem? It’ll be interesting to watch the NFC South as there are three teams at 2-0. The other interesting watch is playing on the road against an angry Detroit Lions team. 10. New Orleans Saints (2-0) An unimpressive 2-0 is still a 2-0. One nugget is the defense looks to be in midseason form, having held 10 consecutive opponents to 20 points or fewer since last season. The offense does not, but QB Derek Carr is still acclimating and awaiting Alvin Kamara's return – which could be key given New Orleans' depleted running back room. Carr couldn’t win in Vegas because he had no defense. Well he finally has one now. So far your “Carr” has been a Plymouth and it’s time to step up to a Rolls!

Wayne Root's Top 10 College Football Poll: Week 4

by Wayne Root

Friday, Sep 22, 2023

One thing is for certain, there’s no unanimous No. 1 team in college football right now. On any given Saturday, one of the best teams in college football can lose. 1. Georgia One more poor performance by Georgia and they will be bounced down; win or lose. Georgia bounced back from an abysmal first half against South Carolina, rallying from an 11-point deficit at halftime (their biggest in three years) to win 24-14. Yes, Georgia is still undefeated and its national championship odds should still be high. However, it’s also evident this team isn’t nearly as good as it was the last two years. 2. Michigan Following the Week 3 victory, Michigan Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh can return to the sideline. Based on how players reacted to the program, Harbaugh’s return will provide an additional shot in the arm for an undefeated team. The tune-up for Big Ten play was anything but for Michigan, which needed 17 points in the third quarter to pull away from the middling MAC team down to their third-string quarterback. 3. Texas A week after thumping Alabama, the Longhorns sleepwalked through most of the game, struggling to produce explosive plays, failing to convert on third down and committing ill-advised penalties. They needed 21 points in the fourth quarter to turn a 10-10 game against a Wyoming squad playing with a backup QB into a 31-10 “easy” win. Quinn Ewers (just 11 of 21 for 131 yards and three total touchdowns) never really had it, but a 44-yard score to Xavier Worthy, who turned a short throw that looked like nothing into a majestic, tight-roping run down the sidelines for a long touchdown, seemed to wake up Texas. The Bulldogs, Seminoles and Wolverines also allowed their opponents to keep the game close so the Longhorns are not punished this week. 4. Florida St Florida State was just 1 of 9 on third down and had just 340 total yards. The ‘Noles benefitted from a litany of self-inflicted mistakes by the Golden Eagles, who set a school-record 18 penalties for 131 yards, missed an extra-point and two-point conversion spoiling their upset opportunity. With a monster date with Clemson looming, the Seminoles survived an injury scare to quarterback Jordan Travis and a flat performance by the entire team, escaping Boston College with a 31-29 win in the Red Bandanna Game. We’re not high on Clemson, but a similar effort like this one from Florida State will result in a loss to Dabo Swinney. 5. USC After playing in Week 2, the Trojans were idle Saturday. They start Pac-12 play this week against Arizona State. They are a 33.5 favorite with a Heisman hopeful at quarterback. A bad Saturday for the Bulldogs and Seminoles opened the door for the USC Trojans to move up a few spots in the college football rankings. Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley provide Southern Cal with all it need to have a shot at the CFB Playoff. 6. Penn St Old-school football fans have to love how the Penn State Nittany Lions are winning right now. The Nittany Lions took advantage of five turnovers (including four picks) to win at Illinois in Drew Allar’s first-career road start.Allar to settle in as the starter, but he will need to prove himself with the game on his shoulders at some point.Their defense, which also added three sacks, seven tackles for loss and four PBUs, really carried the day on an afternoon when the offense had very little rhythm. 7. Ohio St Behind a 35-point second-quarter explosion, Ohio State’s offense looked like an Ohio State offense for the first time of the 2023 season — rolling past Western Kentucky 63-10. Recently-named QB Kyle McCord had his first 300-yard passing game of his career, going 19 of 23 with three scores. Marvin Harrison Jr. once again proved why he’s one of the best players in college football and this Buckeyes’ offense is looking far more consistent. The drawback, for now, is our skepticism of Ryan Day and quarterback Kyle McCord in a big game. 8. Washington Michael Penix Jr. is throwing fireballs so far this season, recording his third straight 400+ yard performance with a 473-yard, four-touchdown afternoon in Washington’s 41-7 splattering of the Michigan State Spartans. They had nine plays go for at least 30 yards and were up 35-zip at halftime, effectively running out the clock the last 30 minutes of the game. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is writing his own lengthy Heisman Trophy candidacy script right now and added more highlights with 473 passing yards and four touchdowns. He's up to 1,332 yards, 12 touchdowns and just one pick for the year now. The Pac-12 is deep and strong this year, but it's possible Washington is the best of the bunch. 9. Oregon In their final tuneup before Pac-12 play, the Ducks cooly dispatched Hawaii 55-10, jumping out to a 34-3 lead at halftime before emptying the bench. Bo Nix accounted for over 250 total yards and three scores, while Oregon rushed for 210 yards at a-that’ll-do 7.0 per carry. The stage is set for what will be one of the last must-see games in PAC-12 history. While the Oregon Ducks haven’t played their best football this season, this is an experienced roster with far more than than the Colorado Buffaloes have faced this year. They opened as a 21 point favorite. 10. Notre Dame The stage is set for the best college football game in 2023 to this point. Ohio State vs Notre Dame Saturday. The Irish were sloppy at times Saturday, not tackling particularly well and getting flagged eight times for 72 yards — one of which negated another 70-yard touchdown run by Estime. Notre Dame was down several starters defensively but it still held down a CMU offense. In the upcoming game with Ohio St, the quarterback advantage leads us to believe Notre Dame wins and eventually moves up even further in the college football rankings.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/22/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 22, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action.The fourth week in NCAAF college football continues with four games between FBS opponents. Wisconsin travels to Purdue on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Badgers raised their record to 2-1 with a 35-14 victory against Georgia Southern as a 21-point favorite last Saturday. The Boilermakers fell to 1-2 on the season after a 35-20 loss to Syracuse as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Wisconsin is a 6-point road favorite, with the total set at 53.5 (all odds from DraftKings). North Carolina State plays at Virginia on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Wolfpack improved to 2-1 this season with their 45-7 victory against VMI as a 43-point favorite last Saturday. The Cavaliers remained winless this season after three games in their 42-14 loss at Maryland as a 15.5-point underdog last Friday. North Carolina State is a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 48. Two more NCAAF games kick off at 10:30 PM ET. Air Force is at San Jose State on FS1. The Falcons are unbeaten in their first three games after a 39-21 victory against Utah State as a 9.5-point favorite last Friday. The Spartans fell to 1-3 this year after a 21-17 loss at Toledo as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday. Air Force is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 45.5. Boise State visits San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network. The Broncos ended their two-game losing streak to beat North Dakota, 42-28, as a 14.5-point favorite for their first victory of the season last Saturday. The Aztecs are on a two-game losing streak after their 26-9 loss at Oregon State as a 24.5-point underdog on Saturday. Boise State is a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs host the Colorado Rockies at 2:20 PM ET as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Cincinnati against the Reds. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Miami to play the Marlins. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the New York Mets as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves are on the road in Washington to play the Nationals as a -258 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The Baltimore Orioles play in Cleveland against the Guardians as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Chicago White Sox as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Seattle Mariners at 8:05 PM ET as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. The San Diego Padres are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Detroit Tigers travel to Oakland to play the A’s as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants play in Los Angeles against the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET. Week 16 in the Canadian Football League begins with two games. The Saskatchewan Roughriders are in Ottawa to play the Redblacks on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Roughriders are on a two-game losing streak after their 36-27 upset loss to Edmonton as a 3-point favorite last Friday. The Redblacks lost their seventh straight game in a 41-37 loss at British Columbia as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday. Saskatchewan is a 2-point road favorite with a total of 45.The British Columbia Lions visit the Edmonton Elks at 9:30 PM ET. The Lions are on a two-game winning streak after their win against Ottawa last week. The Elks have won four of their last five games after their 36-27 victory against the Roughriders last week. British Columbia is a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 50.

NFL Week 3: VW's Power Rankings

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Sep 21, 2023

The San Francisco 49ers might be the best team in the NFL, in terms of all-around, complete package.We saw another solid effort Thursday night in their 30-12 win over the New York Giants.Unfortunately, I'm not moving them up until the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs stumble.We're going to get a lot of NFL questions answered after Week 3, with some early pivotal matchups.Let's get started with this week's rankings.THE UPPER TIER1. Philadelphia (2-0) - The Eagles travel to Tampa Bay for a Monday Night Football showdown that features Week 4's only battle of unbeaten teams. Tampa Bay has won each of its last four against Philadelphia, including the postseason. Will Philly stay atop the rankings? A win is necessary. (Last week 1)2. Kansas City (1-1) - The tandem was back for Week 2, as Patrick Mahomes passed for 305 yards with two touchdowns while tight end Travis Kelce had four receptions and his first touchdown catch of the season in the Chiefs' 17-9 win at Jacksonville. (Last week 2)3. San Francisco (2-0) - Christian McCaffrey had 135 scrimmage yards. This week he gets a defense that has allowed a league seventh-highest 273 yards rushing. (Last week 3)4. Dallas (2-0) - The Cowboys are the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to score at least 70 points and allow 10 or fewer points through its first two games of a season. (Last week 4)5. Baltimore (2-0) - Lamar Jackson appears to be in MVP form, as he comes into Week 3 after totaling 291 yards (237 passing, 54 rushing) with two touchdown passes and no interceptions for a 112.8 rating in the Ravens' 27-24 win at Cincinnati. (Last week 6)6. Miami (2-0) - Have to like the way the offense has utilized tight end Durham Smythe, as he's been an efficient addition for this potent offense. On the other side of the ball, hard to ignore Andrew Van Ginkel's impact. (Last week 7)7. Buffalo (1-1) - The Bills' response to the opening-week disaster was impressive on one hand, as they looked competent all around, led by AFC Player of the Week Josh Allen, who threw for 274 yards and three TDs. On the other hand, it was against the Raiders. (Last week 8)8. Cincinnati (0-2) - From No. 3, to No. 5, to No. 8. This team's digression shouldn't come as a surprise. The one bright spot from Sunday was rookie wide receiver Charlie Jones returning a punt 81 yards for a touchdown. (Last week 5)9. N.Y. Jets (1-1) - A thumping by the Cowboys brought New York back down to reality after the Week 1 victory and the news Aaron Rodgers would miss the season. A visit from the winless Patriots should help this week. (Last week 9)10. Jacksonville (1-1) - A tough loss to the Chiefs last week, but just as I did after they won in Week 1, I'm leaving them where they're at after a loss in Week 2. This will be a telling week. (Last week 10)11. Seattle (1-1) - Now I'm really baffled with this team. How it came back to win in Detroit is beyond me, but let's move them higher in time for Week 3. The ascension should continue with the Panthers arriving. (Last week 15)12. Detroit (1-1) - Quite a collapse last week against the Seahawks. I'm still trying to figure out if the Seattle actually won that game, or if the Lions lost. Detroit has a chance to flex its muscles this week against Atlanta. (Last week 11)13. L.A. Chargers (0-2) - Justin Herbert continues to rack up the milestones, as he now has 23 career games with at least 300 passing yards, third-most by a player in his first four seasons. Now if only he could lead the Bolts to a win. (Last week 12)14. Cleveland (1-1) - Let's face it, the Browns should be 2-0. Let's face it, if you can't close out games, you're not going to last long. The Browns could have their hands full with the Titans this week. (Last week 13)15. Green Bay (1-1) - Jordan Love, in his third-career start, recorded three touchdown passes with no interceptions for a 113.5 rating on Sunday. A shame the way the Packers folded late. (Last week 14)16. New Orleans (2-0) - I'm giving the Saints the benefit of the doubt because they're 2-0. They get to move into the upper tier of the power rankings, but I'm quickly losing faith in this offense. I don't actually know if it's any good. (Last week 17)THE LOWER TIER: 17. Pittsburgh (1-1) - Never doubt Mike Tomlin. The Steelers with a much-needed win last week. (Last week 18)18. Minnesota (0-2) - Is the absence of Shane Steichen being felt? (Last week 16)19. N.Y. Giants (1-1) - Incredible comeback in Glendale could provide boost. (Last week 19)20. Washington (2-0) - Is the Eric Bienemy factor kicking in with this team? (Last week 21)21. Atlanta (2-0) - I don't know what to think of Desmond Ridder. (Last week 22)22. Tampa Bay (2-0) - Who needs Tom Brady? (Last week 25)23. New England (0-2) - One of the least efficient offenses in the league with just 4.5 yards per play. (Last week 20)24. Las Vegas (1-1) - The Raiders open their home schedule Sunday night. Can they beat Tomlin and the Steelers? (Last week 23)25. Denver (0-2) - This is a major do-or-die week for the Broncos in Miami. (Last week 24)26. Carolina (0-2) - The Panthers will be on hiatus from young Bryce Young's growing pains as Andy Dalton gets the nod this week. (Last week 26)27. Tennessee (1-1) - Big win for the Titans last week, in OT against the Chargers. (Last week 29)28. Indianapolis (1-1) - Anthony Richardson continues to be a work in progress, unfortunately, the progress is on hold as he's in concussion protocol and will not start this week. (Last week 30)29. L.A. Rams (1-1) - The Rams face a tough back-to-back gauntlet the next two weeks, in Cincy and Indy. Is 1-3 in their future? (Last week 27)30. Chicago (0-2) - I don't want to give up faith in Justin Fields, but... (Last week 28)31. Houston (0-2) - The Texans are better than their record, and at some point it'll click. (Last week 31)32. Arizona (0-2) - How does a team blow a 20-0 halftime lead at home? Oh yeah, it's the worst team in the league. (Last week 32)

NFL System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Sep 21, 2023

The NFL Schedule-Maker tends to give each team 1 home and 1 road game to start the season. But that's not always the case. Sometimes, a team begins the season with 2 home games, while others start with 2 road games. And, in very rare instances, the NFL has scheduled a team to play its first 3 games at home, or on the road. But that hasn't happened since the 1991 season, when the Cardinals opened with 3 road games. And, of course, there are other situations -- usually caused by hurricanes -- where the NFL schedule had to be changed because a team was forced to evacuate its local area. That happened in 2005 with the Saints and Hurricane Katrina, and in 2008 with the Texans and Hurricane Ike.This Sunday, there will be four teams playing their home opener in Week 3:San Francisco 49ers (vs. New York Giants)Miami Dolphins (vs. Denver Broncos)Green Bay Packers (vs. New Orleans Saints)Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)And there will also be four teams playing their road opener:Atlanta Falcons (vs. Detroit Lions)Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)Of note, there are two games (Miami/Denver; Las Vegas/Pittsburgh) where a team is playing its home opener vs. an opponent playing its road opener.The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on home teams in Week 3 playing their home opener because they "will be excited to be at home." Or play against a road team in Week 3 in its road opener because it "will be unaccustomed to a hostile environment."But does the data bear out either of these two hypotheses?It does not. Indeed, since 1980, our home teams playing their home opener in Week 3 have gone 54-80-3 ATS, including 38-60-3 ATS as a favorite. And our road teams playing their road opener in Week 3 have gone 76-60-4 ATS, including 61-43-2 ATS as an underdog.But what about our two games above, where a team, in Week 3, was playing its first road game against a team playing its first home game? In this situation, the home teams have gone 6-18 ATS since 1980, including 2-11 ATS as a single-digit favorite (which fits both Miami and Las Vegas).Consider the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/21/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 21, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, and MLB action.Week 3 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Giants on Amazon xPrime at 8:15 PM ET. The 49ers are unbeaten in their opening two games of the season after their 30-23 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point road favorite last Sunday. The Giants evened their record at 1-1 with a 31-28 victory in Arizona against the Cardinals as a 4.5-point road favorite on Sunday. San Francisco is a 10.5-point favorite, with the total set at 44 (all odds from DraftKings).The fourth week in NCAAF college football begins with one game on national television between FBS opponents. Coastal Carolina plays at home against Georgia State on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Chanticleers raised their record to 2-1 with a 66-7 victory at home against Duquesne as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Panthers remained undefeated this year with their 41-25 win at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 62.Major League Baseball has nine games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:10 PM ET. Zack Eflin gets the ball for the Rays to pitch against Griffin Canning for the Angels. Tampa Bay is a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers at 1:15 PM ET. The Cardinals turn to Miles Mikolas to take the ball to face the Brewers’ Wade Miley. St. Louis is a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. Atlanta travels to Washington with Max Fried taking the mound for the Braves to battle against Jake Irvin for the Nationals. The Braves are a -265 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. New York plays at home against Toronto with the Yankees sending out Gerrit Cole to face the Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios. The Yankees are a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 7:15 PM ET in Fox regional coverage. Philadelphia is at home against New York, with Ranger Suarez taking the hill for the Phillies to pitch against David Peterson for the Mets. The Phillies are a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Baltimore plays in Cleveland, with the Grayson Rodriguez getting the ball for the Orioles to face a Guardians’ starting pitcher that has yet to be determined. The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:40 PM ET. The Cubs tap Kyle Hendricks to duel against the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo. Chicago is a -170 money-line favorite. The Detroit Tigers visit Oakland to play the A’s at 9:40 PM ET. Louis Medina pitches for the A’s to face a Tigers starting pitcher yet to be named. Detroit is a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the San Francisco Giants at 10:10 PM ET, with Emmet Sheehan going to the mound for the Dodgers to pitch against Kyle Harrison for the Giants. Los Angeles is a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 9.

Week 3 College FB Observations: Knights Shine Heading into Big 12 Play

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, Sep 20, 2023

Conference realignments and program shifts have the complexion of a couple of Power 5 leagues looking differently.Normally, however, it takes some time for teams to ascend in a conference and make some noise.Central Florida hasn't gotten into the rigors of Big 12 play, but as it approaches its first conference showdown this weekend at Kansas State, there's not much different than what we've come to expect with the Knights.UCF has the No. 1 offense in the nation, gaining 617.7 yards per game, backed by the country's second-best rushing attack that is rumbling for 299.3 yards per game. But it's not all ground-and-pound for the Knights, as they're also bringing the No. 16 passing game that nets 318.3 yards per game to Manhattan, Kansas.UCF has surpassed 500 or more yards in each game this season, including 723 yards in the season opener against Kent State, the most yards by any team in the country this year in a single game.On the other side of the ball, the Knights have yet to allow an opponent to score more than 16 points in a game - the only team in the Big 12 Conference to accomplish that feat this season.The Knights' scoring defense ranks 16th nationally and second in the Big 12 with 12.0 points per game.Now they're ready to prove they're not just any "new kid in school," as they've been down this road before.The Knights joined the Mid-American Conference in 2002 and remained in that league through the 2004 season for football only. UCF became a member of Conference USA from 2005-12 and most recently the American Athletic Conference.The Knights were 57-23 in conference games during its tenure in the American, the best mark of any team during that span. UCF was 40-21 in CUSA games and 8-16 versus opponents in the MAC.The Knights are catching either +4.5 or +5 points in Manhattan, as of Wednesday morning.Here are more College Football Observations heading into Week 4:WILY WOLVERINES - Second-ranked Michigan may have one of the more potent - and balanced - offenses in the nation, but it's the defense Big 10 opponents should fear.Michigan has allowed a mere 16 points combined after three games. That's just 5.3 per contest - tops in the nation, just ahead of Big Ten-rival Ohio State 6.7 points per game.The Wolverines boast the No. 7 pass defense (141.3 yards per game) and No. 17 run defense (81.0 yards per game), good enough rank+ them second in total defense (222.3 yards per game). Michigan has held all three of its opponents to less than 250 total yards each game.More impressively, Michigan's stingy stop unit has allowed the opposition to score just four times - three field goals and one touchdown - in 33 opposition drives.Michigan opens conference play at home Saturday against Rutgers, laying -24 points to the visiting Scarlet Knights.PANIC IN TUSCALOOSA - Alabama is out of the top 10 of The Associated Press college football poll for the first time in eight years, as it's dropped to No. 13 after barely getting by South Florida last week in an ugly 17-3 win. The Crimson Tide's streak of consecutive AP poll appearances ranked in the top 10 was snapped at 128.Coach Nick Saban and his troops shouldn't necessarily be worried about trivial things like a poll, though. Instead, one has to wonder if it's time to panic in Tuscaloosa, that not only the program is seeing slippage, but the intimidation factor was worn off.After all, Georgia is looking for its third straight title, aforementioned Michigan has people intrigued with a chance to dethrone the Bulldogs, Texas has made headlines especially after upsetting Alabama a couple of weeks back, and Deion Sanders has everyone wondering about Colorado.Nobody seems to be worried about Alabama.The Tide rank 82nd in the nation in total offense with a passing game that checks in at No. 100 with just 196.0 yards per game. The defense is in the upper half out of 130 teams, ranked 45th, but that's not the Alabama we've become used to over the year.Perspective: Alabama is -7 at home against Ole Miss on Saturday. Over the past 10 meetings, the average point spread has been 17.8. And when they've met in Tuscaloosa, the average spread has been 21.1.Beware in your investment on Alabama as SEC play begins.SECOND-HALF HOOK 'EM - If you're looking for a solid second-half team, look no further than third-ranked Texas.Out of the locker room, the Longhorns - with the nation's 47th-tying highest 34.0 points per game - have been most dominant in the final two quarters of their first three games.In the opener, Texas led Rice 16-9 at halftime. The 'Horns outscored the Owls 21-7 in the second half.Against Alabama the following week, Texas broke free from a 13-6 halftime lead by outscoring the Tide 21-18.And versus Wyoming last week, a slim 10-7 lead at the break sparked a 21-3 second half for a 21-point win.Overall, Texas has outscored its opponents 63-28 after intermission and rolls into this week's game at Baylor with a 2-0-1 ATS mark in the second half. The Longhorns are laying -15 in Waco, but for those tuning into the 7:30 pm eastern kick, a second-half play may be the smart move.CHALK CHECK-IN - Laying between 15 and 19.5 points paid off last week, as favorites in that range went 5-0. Across the regular board games, favorites and underdogs batted .500 with a 27-27 mark.In the other five point-spread ranges, favorites were either .500 or below, with underdogs challenging the number throughout.Every week I'll update you with regular board games (no FCS or added), broken down into different point-spread ranges. There were a few pushes this week and a pk'em game to consider, but through Week 3, favorites are 76-73 with the following breakdown: 1-3 1/2 .................. 14-11 4-7 1/2 ................ 15-19 8-10 1/2 ................. 6-8 11-14 1/2 ................. 9-9 15-19 1/2 ................ 9-4 20 and up .......... 23-22

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 09/20/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 20, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features MLB and UEFA Champions League action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at 12:20 PM ET as a -142 money-line favorite, with the total set at 9.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Minnesota Twins travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 12:35 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 9. The Washington Nationals play at home against the Chicago White Sox at 1:05 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 9.The Texas Rangers are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 2:05 PM ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. The Houston Astros play at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Cleveland Guardians are in Kansas City to play the Royals as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Seattle Mariners play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 PM ET as a -230 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Francisco Giants visit Arizona to play the Diamondbacks at 3:40 PM ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies at 4:10 PM ET as a -270 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 6:40 PM ET. The Miami Marlins play at home against the New York Mets on FS1 as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to New York to play the Yankees at 7:05 PM ET with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:40 PM ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 7:45 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the Detroit Tigers at 10:10 PM ET as a -238 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchday 1 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Galatasaray hosts Copenhagen as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Real Madrid plays at home against Union Berlin as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich is at home against Manchester United as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Sevilla hosts Lens as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Arsenal plays at home against PSV Eindhoven as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Napoli visits Sporting Braga as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3. Inter Milan plays at Real Sociedad, with both teams listed as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 2.5. Benfica is at home against Salzburg as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+. The CBS Sports Network’s “The Golazo Show” is an NFL Red Zone-inspired show that presents live updated highlights of all eight games.

VW's Weekly Recap: Strong Start to Football Continues, 4-0 with NFL Dogs

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Sep 19, 2023

Time for the weekly recap, as I take a look at the incredible run on the gridiron and a heartbreaking loss I'm still steamed about.Since last Tuesday, I'm on a 6-7-1 roll in every sport and am down -$1,900. Complete transparency, right? It is what it is.That said, I went 6-4-1 in both college and pro football since last Tuesday, and even further, was 3-0-1 with Games of the Month in that span.I delivered my College Football Game of the Month on North Carolina against Minnesota on Saturday.On Sunday, I hit my AFC South Dog of the Month with the Colts beating Houston outright. Then there was the dreaded NFC West Game of the Month, and the field goal heard 'round the world.Trailing 30-20 with four seconds left, and no hope of winning the game, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford spiked the ball at the San Francisco 20-yard line, and a 38-yard field goal later, the final margin landed on -7. Some 49ers bettors pushed, others lost. Conversely, early Rams bettors got the win, and those who took +7.5 on Sunday also got the cover.Baffling.Nevertheless, College Football continues to be impressive since Week 0, as I've nailed 13 of 19 releases for +$6,420 net profit. For the season (L30 days on the leaderboard), I'm ranked third in net profit ($4,240) and fourth with a 61.9% win percentage.Breaking down favorites and dogs, I've hit two of the three underdogs I've released and 10 of the 15 favorites I've offered.Sitting at 7-4-1 in the NFL, I'm a perfect 4-0 with underdogs - all four winning outright. I gave you the Lions over Kansas City on opening night, the Browns over Cincinnati on Sept. 10, the Jets over Buffalo on Sept. 11, and the Colts over Houston on Sept. 17.As for MLB action, a 0-3 week didn't help the profits I've built in football. Good news is, that losing streaks don't last and things are setting up nicely for a huge comeback this week - beginning with Tuesday's One-and-Only MLB Underdog of the Year.Nothing doing in the WNBA, yet. Just waiting for the semifinals to be quite honest. Although there may be a value number coming up depending on tonight's results.Looking ahead, we begin with the postseason getting underway Wednesday.Be sure to check back Wednesday for my College Football observations and Thursday for my NFL Power Rankings.Let's gear up for a big week of action.

Wayne Root's Top 10 College Football Poll - Week 4

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, Sep 19, 2023

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 19, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Miami hosts New York, with the Marlins tapping Braxton Garrett to pitch against the Mets’ Joey Lucchesi. The Marlins are a -166 money-line favorite, with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings). Tampa Bay plays at home against Los Angeles, with Taj Bradley taking the ball for the Rays to face Patrick Sandoval of the Angeles. The Rays are a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds, with the Twins turning to Kenta Maeda to pitch against the Reds’ Fernando Cruz. The Twins are a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. Toronto plays in New York, with Yusei Kikuchi going to the mound for the Blue Jays to face Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees. The Blue Jays are a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Washington is at home against Chicago, with the Nationals sending out Jackson Rutledge to pitch against the White Sox’s Jose Arena. The Nationals are a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on TBS at 7:20 PM ET. Spencer Strider takes the hill for the Braves to battle against Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies. Atlanta is a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Pittsburgh is in Chicago, with the Pirates yet to name the starting pitcher who will pitch against the Cubs’ Javier Assad. Cleveland visits Kansas City, with Logan Allen taking the ball for the Guardians to pitch against Steven Cruz for the Royals. The Guardians are a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play in St. Louis against the Cardinals, with the Brewers turning to Trevor McGill to duel against the Cardinals’ Drew Rom. Milwaukee is a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 8:05 PM ET. Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Rangers to face Tanner Houck for the Red Sox. Texas is a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros are at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros’ Hunter Brown takes the ball to pitch against the Orioles’ Kyle Gibson. Houston is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games start at 9:40 PM ET. San Diego hosts Colorado, with the Padres tapping Blake Snell to battle against the Rockies’ Ryan Feltner. The Padres are a -252 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Seattle is in Oakland with Luis Castillo pitching for the Mariners against Paul Blackburn for the A’s. The Mariners are a -218 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Arizona plays at home against San Francisco with the Diamondbacks sending out Zac Gallen to face a Giants starting pitcher yet to be named. The Diamondbacks are a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Detroit Tigers play in Los Angeles against the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET.

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