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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 03, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action. Week 1 in college football continues with three games between FBS opponents. Rutgers hosts Northwestern on CBS at 12 PM ET as a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 39.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Oregon State travels to San Jose State on CBS at 3:30 PM ET as a 16.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Louisiana State battles Florida State at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida on ABC as a 2-point favorite with a total of 56.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 12:10 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Milwaukee against the Braves at 1:05 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Miami Marlins are in Washington to play the Nationals at 1:35 PM ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Seattle Mariners visit New York to play the Mets at 1:40 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play at Kansas City against the Royals. The Detroit Tigers are in Chicago to face the White Sox as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 2:15 PM ET. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Minnesota Twins at 2:35 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET as a -238 money-line road favorite with a total of 12. The Los Angeles Angels play in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Four more games start at 4:10 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Cleveland against the Guardians. The Atlanta Braves play in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 9.5. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the New York Yankees on ESPN for Sunday Night Baseball at 7:10 PM ET as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Week 13 in the Canadian Football League begins with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers visit the Saskatchewan Roughriders on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 47.5. Matchweek 4 in the English Premier League concludes with three matches. Two matches begin at 9 AM ET. Crystal Palace hosts Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal plays at home against Manchester United on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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NFL MVP Predictions

by ASA, Inc.

Saturday, Sep 02, 2023

Justin Herbert (+1000) Lots of experts picked Herbert to break out last season after he threw for 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2021. Unfortunately, injuries to the WR room along with a stale offensive game plan centered around short passes, limited the Chargers young star. Austin Ekeler vulturing numerous redzone touchdowns played a huge part in why Herbert’s stats took a negative turn last year as well. GM Tom Telesco addressed some needs this offseason that will put their QB back into the MVP conversation for 2023. The hiring of Kellen Moore will open up Los Angeles’ deep passing game allowing Herbert to showcase his superhuman arm talent, and first round WR talent Quentin Johnston adds some much needed depth to a stacked but fragile WR room. Despite a disappointing 2022, Herbert still finished 2nd in passing yards with over 4700. If some positive touchdown regression returns to the Chargers QB, he will be in line for almost 5k yards with near 40 touchdowns, which is right in the ballpark of Patrick Mahomes MVP stats from last year (5250/41/12). Soon, Herbert will take the next step to a truly elite QB, similar to how Burrow and Allen have the past few years.  Trevor Lawrence (+1600)As a former number one overall pick in 2021, Lawrence has not lived up to expectations, yet he is not fully to blame, being on a lackluster Jaguars team the last two seasons. Finally, Jacksonville seems to be a stable organization, and even got Lawrence a shiny new weapon in Calvin Ridley. Coming off a solid year throwing over 4k yards, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, Lawrence is in a great spot to solidify himself as a top 10 QB. Passing volume is due to increase with the addition of Ridley and there is no question the former number one pick has the arm talent to compete with the elite QBs in the NFL. A realistic statline is 4800 yards, 35 touchdowns and under 10 interceptions. Jacksonville has the 10th easiest strength of schedule and is favored to win the AFC South, maybe the worst division in football. A great team record along with stellar individual stats are what's needed to win an MVP. Despite being a long shot, Lawrence has an opportunity to harness both this season and compete with the likes of the heavier MVP favorites. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 02, 2023

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action. Week 1 in college football continues with 32 games between FBS opponents. Seven nationally televised NCAAF games kick off at noon ET. SMU hosts Louisiana Tech on ESPNU as a 20.5-point favorite, with the total set at 66 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Tennessee battles Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on ABC as a 28-point favorite with an over/under of 56. Oklahoma plays Arkansas State on ESPN as a 36-point favorite with a total of 58. Iowa is at home against Utah State on FS1 as a 23.5-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. Liberty hosts Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network as a 9-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Michigan plays at home against East Carolina on Peacock as a 36.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. TCU is at home against Colorado on Fox as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 63. Six college football games are on national television starting at 3:30 PM ET. Auburn hosts Massachusetts on ESPN as a 35-point favorite with an over/under of 51.5. Wisconsin plays at home against Buffalo on FS1 as a 28-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Western Kentucky is at home against South Florida on the CBS Sports Network as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 70. Washington hosts Boise State on ABC as a 14-point favorite with a total of 58.5. Texas plays at home against Rice on Fox as a 35.5-point favorite with an over/under of 59. Ohio State travels to Indiana on CBS as a 30.5-point road favorite with a total of 59. California is at North Texas on ESPNU at 4 PM ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 54. Four nationally televised college football games begin at 7 PM ET. Washington State visits Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 54.5. UTSA plays at Houston on FS1 as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 60. Texas A&M hosts New Mexico on ESPN as a 38-point favorite with a total of 49. Army is at UL-Monroe on the NFL Network as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 47. Three more NCAA-F games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Texas Tech plays at Wyoming on CBS as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. Penn State is at home against West Virginia on NBC as a 20.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49. South Carolina plays at home against North Carolina on ABC as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 63.5. Tulane hosts South Alabama on ESPNU at 8 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. UCLA plays at home against Coastal Carolina on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 66.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 4:05 PM ET. The Los Angeles Angels play in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Cleveland against the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs visit Cincinnati to play the Reds at 6:40 PM ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play in Kansas City against the Royals as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The Seattle Mariners are in New York to play the Mets as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago White Sox are at home against the Detroit Tigers as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games start at 7:15 PM ET. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two games are featured on Fox in regional television coverage. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies visit Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Colorado against the Rockies as a -185 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 12. The Baltimore Orioles are in Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants at 8:40 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves travel to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers at 9:10 PM ET.Week 13 in the Canadian Football League begins with one game. The British Columbia Lions play in Montreal against the Alouettes at 7 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 47.5. Matchweek 4 in the English Premier League continues with six matches. Everton plays at Sheffield United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2 (all soccer odds from DraftKings). Four more EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Brentford plays at home against Bournemouth as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Tottenham is at Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Chelsea is at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City hosts Fulham as a -2 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at Brighton and Hove Albion on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. 

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The Three NFL Coach of the Year Bets to Make Now

by Oskeim Sports

Friday, Sep 01, 2023

With Week 1 of the NFL just seven days away, it’s time to take a look at the NFL Coach of the Year bets to make right now. The current NFL COTY is New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll. He took a 4-13 Giants team, led them to a 9-7-1 record, and earned a berth in the NFC playoffs as a wild card. Which NFL coach is poised to do the same in 2023? There are a few, but in betting the NFL COTY, there is a certain profile that fits the bill. Understanding that profile leads us to three candidates to bet on before Week 1 of the 2023 season starts.  Wins Are KeyIf you look at the past ten NFL COTYs, all but one - that was Daboll last year - had double-digit wins. The NFL Coach of the Year is going to have a high winning percentage. Over the past decade, the COTY has won an average of 12.1 games. It’s actually closer to 13 if we base it on the 17-game schedule that the league now plays. Daboll had nine wins last year, but the nine guys before him all won at least 11.  Seven of the ten also won a division title. Five even received a first-round playoff bye. The bottom line is that winning is king when it comes to the NFL COTY. Making ProgressIt’s the reason why they were hired in the first place. They need to make improvements and each of the last 10 COTYs outperformed their team’s previous season. Most of them did so significantly. The average COTY team improved from 6.9 wins to 12.1 wins the following season, winning 5.2 games more on average. Most of the COTY teams had preseason win totals between 7.5 and 9.5. Most of these teams, who were thought to be .500 teams at best, went on to exceed expectations.  Exceeding ExpectationsSpeaking of exceeding expectations, our most recent COTYs didn’t just make progress, they performed well beyond what any of the so-called experts had anticipated. These surprise teams tend to garner more votes when it comes time for the COTY voting. Six of the last ten COTYs won at least 4.5 games more than predicted according to Vegas win total lines. The projected win total for the last 10 COTY winners was 8.8. All 10 won at least two more games than their projected win total. Ideal NFL COTY CandidateBreaking it down then, the perfect NFL COTY candidate is one who wins a ton of games. Preferably, the coach wins more than the previous season. Typically, the COTY is going to come from a team that had a losing record the previous season. He’ll likely need 10-plus wins and preferably a playoff spot.  Keep in mind that the award typically does not go to the favorite. The last eight NFL COTYs all started the season at +1800 or higher. Six of the previous 12 winners were first-year head coaches and five of the last seven were offensive guys. Your 2023 NFL COTY Candidates to Bet Now  Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) +2000: McDaniel enters his second season off a pretty strong debut. The Dolphins won nine games. He’s an offensive guy who will have a healthy Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and plenty of weapons on offense. He also hired veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to shore up the defense.  Miami has a win total of 9.5. McDaniel will need double-digit wins and a playoff berth. Both are doable with the Dolphins schedule. And, McDaniel is nowhere near the favorite here.  Arthur Smith (Falcons) +1400: Smith will play in what is likely the weakest division in football. He’s another offensive-minded guy who has developed quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill and Desmond Ridder last season. Carolina is young and inexperienced. Tampa Bay doesn’t have Tom Brady and the Saints are in the midst of a rebuild. The Falcons are talented - Kyle Pitts and Drake London - on offense and they made some moves in the offseason on defense. He’s not a first-year candidate, but he fits the other criteria and he’s priced at +1400.  DeMeco Ryans (Texans) +2500: Here’s the guy who is worth at least a small bet. Ryans is a first-year head coach. He’ll have the benefit of playing six games in the weakest division in the AFC (the South). The Colts have a new head coach too and the Titans will struggle with a weak offensive line. Jacksonville is solid on offense but weak defensively. Houston will surprise some people with a fairly well-rounded and deep roster. They benefit from having the schedule of one of the weakest teams in the league last year. The Texans won just three games last year. If Ryans can do what Daboll did a year ago, this bet makes for a nice payout.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 01, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and EPL action. Week 1 in college football continues with four games. Two games kick off at 7 PM ET. Miami (FL) hosts Miami (OH) as a 16.5-point favorite, with the total set at 45.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Michigan State plays at home against Central Michigan on FS1 as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Louisville travels to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Cardinals are a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Stanford travels to Hawaii on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET. The Cardinal is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs visit Cincinnati to play the Reds in the opening game of their doubleheader at 1:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Cubs are a -115 money-line road favorite in the nightcap at 6:40 PM ET.The Miami Marlins play in Washington against the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners are in New York to play the Mets on Apple TV+ as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians on Apple TV+ as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Five MLB games start at 8:05 PM ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Minnesota Twins as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Boston Red Sox play in Kansas City against the Royals as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Detroit Tigers visit Chicago to play the White Sox as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees as a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5.The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 8:15 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 12.5. Three MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. The San Francisco Giants are in San Diego to play the Padres. The Baltimore Orioles play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Angels are in Oakland to play the A’s as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves visit Los Angeles to play the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 4 in the English Premier League begins with one match. West Ham United plays at Luton Town on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 2.5.

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College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Two -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Part One focused on the 14 FBS teams that competed in Week 0. Part Two continues with the FBS teams that debut on Thursday, August 31st, and Friday, September 1st. KENT STATE: Just how much of a drop will the Golden Flashes endure with only four starters returning from a 5-7 team from last season? The offense has been completely gutted as they lost all 11 starters. The defense lost 10 of the top 16 in their rotation last year. While many Power-Five programs poach from the Mid-American Conference, they were hit the hardest with 18 players transferring away — and they lost their head coach Sean Lewis who decided the offensive coordinator job at Colorado was a better gig. First-year head coach Kenny Burns is trying his best to find players in the portal for a team that outgained their conference opponents by +18.0 net YPG last season (with a 4-4 record). Perhaps returning production numbers should be obsolete in the transfer portal era, but it sure seems ominous that the Golden Flashes return only 19% of their production on offense and 6% of their production on defense.CENTRAL FLORIDA: Can the Knights stay competitive with the elite teams in the Big 12? Third-year head coach Gus Malzahn continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal for the Knights as they enter this Power-Five conference this season. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team that finished 9-5 after a 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl. They have a former Power-Five conference quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee (previously transferred from Ole Miss) who should be back to full health after battling with injuries last season for the Knights. But this team has also lost several important starters to the transfer portal as well, making the chemistry of this new group a question. NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Will the Wolfpack pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator? Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons. CONNECTICUT: Can head coach Jim Mora continue to defy expectations in his second year with the Huskies? At first glance, bettors will identify that four of their six victories came against weak opponents: Central Connecticut State, FIU, Boston College, and UMass. The Huskies got outgained by -77 YPG despite their 6-7 record — and they only gained more than 5.3 Yards-Per-Play in three of their 13 contests. But 17 starters return from this team that should improve in the former Atlanta Falcons’ coach's second season — and they added plenty of transfers so the talent base is better with another year of development.                       NEBRASKA: Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan.MINNESOTA: P.J. Fleck has established a great culture with the Golden Gophers as he begins his seventh year as the head coach of the program — but does he have enough high-end talent that fits in with his vision? He has assembled a roster that can go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights regarding size — but the question remains regarding the overall athleticism of the team. They ranked 113th in the FBS in sacks last year — and they are thin at cornerback this season while banking on the transfer portal. The floor for pretty high for this group that has 13 starters back from their 9-4 team that beat Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl — but how high can the ceiling be?     FLORIDA: How far has the talent level fallen after second-year head coach Billy Napier tries to undo the damage in recruiting the program endured in the five seasons when Dan Mullen was running the program? The talent on defense has not been the same for years. Florida ranked 96th in the nation by allowing 411.0 total YPG — and they allowed 30 or more points in six of their losses. They lost their top five tacklers from last season as well. The Gators finished last season on a three-game losing streak. They lost several players to the NFL including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Napier brought in senior Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to be his starting quarterback. The reports were that he was shaky in the spring — and he is playing behind an offensive line that lost four starters to either the NFL or the transfer portal. The wide receiving unit lost three of their top four players from last season. UTAH: Can sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising regain his form after suffering a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl? He left the game with the score tied at 14-14 with Penn State — but the Nittany Lions outscored the Utes by a 21-7 margin the rest of the way for their 35-21 victory. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions have a loaded roster once again with 16 starters back. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. But to hang with the dynamic offenses of the top-tier Pac-12 opponents, this team probably needs Rising at full strength. MIAMI (OH): Can fifth-year QB Brett Gabbert regain his form of 2021? He only started four games last year after suffering a broken collarbone to his non-throwing shoulder in the season opener. The RedHawks ranked 112th and 121st in the nation last year by scoring 20.2 PPG and averaging 305.6 YPG. They ranked 117th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. Two years ago, Gabbert passed for 2648 yards with 26 touchdown passes and just six interceptions with the RedHawks scoring 28.9 PPG and averaging 423.1 YPG. On the other side of the ball, this could be the best defense in head coach Chuck Martin’s ten years with the program. The RedHawks return nine starters, 11 of the 14 players with at least 300 snaps last year, and 17 of their top 20 tacklers from the group that allowed only 22.6 PPG, ranking 34th in the nation. MIAMI (FL): Should second-year head coach Mario Cristobal be commended for hiring seven new assistant coaches including both a new offensive and defensive coordinator — or should he be criticized for the numerous hires last year that did not work out? Cristobal returned to the Hurricanes where he was a starting offensive lineman in the Jimmy Johnson/Dennis Erickson glory days to much fanfare last season after signing a ten-year, $80 million contract. But the team finished only 5-7 with a 3-5 record in the ACC with those conference opponents outgaining them by 68 YPG. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and defensive coordinator Kevin Steele had good reputations entering their jobs last year — now Cristobal is selling the narrative that they were the problem. Cristobal is recruiting well — but talent has not really been the problem for this program in the last decade or so (especially under head coach Mark Richt). The Hurricanes are 1-10 in bowl games since 2006 — and that cannot be blamed on last year’s assistant coaches.CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Was their disappointing 4-8 season last year a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program? This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters return on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans thrived by using the transfer portal in their 11-2 season two years ago — but are they now losing in the transfer window? The concern about relying on transfer players as opposed to original recruits who are brought up in the system is that the short-term fix may sacrifice the value of culture. Fourth-year head coach Mel Tucker watched his starting quarterback Payton Thorne and his top wide receiver Keon Coleman transfer out of the program after spring practice. The culture that is being nurtured in East Lansing has to be questioned under the leadership of the guy who spurned Colorado in the February after his first season there — and who was able to coax the Michigan State administration to grant him a 10-year, $95 million contract after that 11-2 campaign in 2021. Tucker brought in another 15 transfers this season, but these may simply be retreads of players who failed to succeed at other programs. Tucker only has a 23-21 record as a head coach — take away the ’21 season (and striking gold with the Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III in the transfer portal) and his Spartans are just 7-12.  And by the way, his team started a riot in the tunnel against Michigan players after their 29-7 loss last October. Culture …LOUISVILLE: How close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returns to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He will install his version of an Air Raid attack — and he has brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels. GEORGIA TECH: The Yellow Jackets had a 4-4 record after Brent Key took over as the interim head coach last season — Was this a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? The team seemed to play harder under Key while committing fewer mental mistakes. However, for a program that has always been challenged with keeping up with recruiting given the high academic standards of the university, is Key the right fit for the ever-evolving college football landscape dominated by NIL and the transfer portal? The fundamental problems for this program — that hiring Collins away from Temple was supposed to address as he moved away from the spread triple option that defined the successful 11-year Paul Johnson era — remain. The four victories with Key as the interim coach were by 14 combined points — and their four losses under Key were by a combined 76 points. The Yellow Jackets' 4-4 conference record was betrayed by them getting outgained by -62 YPG against those eight ACC opponents.   STANFORD: What are the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw? Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. Best of luck -- Frank. 

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Viktor Hovland's Ascendance Rewards Our Faith (and Our Pocketbooks)

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

After Viktor Hovland rewarded my faith in him by winning the PGA BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs three weeks ago, I was not going to jump off the bandwagon the next week at the Tour Championship. Hovland paid out tickets at +1600 odds at most spots for winning the BMW Championship. He was my Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds with him listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings to win the week (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we wanted the prop for best raw score this week). At the BMW Championship, Hovland followed up his Round Three of 65 with a Round Four of 61 with that nine-under score bolstered by his shooting a sensational 28 on the back nine — and under pressure. I had been bullish on Hovland since he settled for second place at the PGA Championship. Hovland had been remarkably consistent this season with 17 top-25 finishes in his last 22 events — and he has eight top-25s in his last nine tournaments. Hovland settled for a tie for 13th place at the British Open last month. He looked poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with simply coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 105th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). He was above average Around-the-Green — statistically — this summer which accounts for his moving up the ranking. He was clearly playing with more confidence with his chipping as evidenced by a couple of clutch shots on Sunday last week. Hovland was already one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranked sixth on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The last seven winners at East Lake had finished in the top-seven for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Overall, Hovland ranked third in the field by gaining +2.1 shots per round versus the field — and he was arguably the hottest golfer in the field going into the Tour Championship at the East Lake Country Club in Atlanta. It was his fourth trip to East Lake where he finished in fourth place two years ago. He started two strokes behind Scottie Scheffler in the adjusted scoring but quickly overcame that deficit after Round One. After a second round of 64 which was six-under par, Hovland seized a lead that he would never relent. He won the Tour Championship with an adjusted score of 27-under par — but winning the raw score for the week remained very much in doubt on Sunday. Xander Schauffele joined him in the final group in Round Four — and he shot 8-under for the round which was one better than Hovland. Schauffele settled for second place in the adjusted score at 22-under par. Hovland and Schauffele ended up tied for the week with a score of 261 which was 19-under par. But fortunately for us, Schauffele was our Best Bet for the week at +900 (DraftKings)— so we were able to cash that ticket along with our Viktor Hovland ticket (our Top Overlay Bet once again) at +1000 (DraftKings) to share those two dead heat winners at a +950 net payout. Cashing at +1600 odds and then the net +950 odds is a great way to end our golf season. We had seven 1st Place winners in 2023 after enduring three near-miss second-place finishes since cashing our Brooks Koepka tickets at 20-1 with his win at the PGA Championship. Hollywood Sports has 12 first-place winners in our last 43 PGA Tour Reports with regulars now enjoying over 63 weeks of free rolls where they can invest in the Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet, and Long Shot for 2024 and beyond!FYI: I do not handicap the fall PGA Tour events. I need the time for football and the pros tend to treat those events a little differently. My next Golf Report will be for the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first week of 2024, so on to January (in golf) ...Best of luck — Frank.

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Trying to Understand the Confounding San Diego Padres

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

The San Diego Padres seem to be a better team than their 62-72 record indicates. They are outscoring their opponents by 0.4 runs per game. They have scored 602 times this season while giving up 548 runs. Their win/loss record using Pythagorean models is 73-61. With that record, they would hold the second wild card spot in the National League and likely destined to compete in the postseason once again. Instead, they are 22 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, and they are 7 1/2 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the final wild-card spot in the National League. Why has manager Bob Melvin’s team underperformed their run differential numbers? After their 6-5 loss in St. Louis on Tuesday, they are winless in their eleven games that have gone into extra innings. They have only won one of the twelve games this season decided by a walk-off run. Of the twenty-eight games decided by one run, they have won only six of them. Perhaps their inability to win close games is an indictment of the character of this team. Yet this was a group returning mostly intact that reached the National League Championship Series. They have one of the best managers in baseball in the veteran Melvin. The Padres’ inability to win close games could strictly be a function of bad luck that will eventually get evened out. Yet bettors expecting this switch to be flipped could go bankrupt waiting for it to happen. San Diego has only won six games in their last eighteen games with five losses in their last six games going into the final day of August. Injuries are beginning to pile up. Their pitching staff is without Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Musgrove has been on the injured list since the end of July with shoulder inflammation. The right-hander has a 10-3 record this season with a 3.05 era and a 1.14 whip in seventeen starts. In his eleven starts since the beginning of June, he has an 8-1 record with a 1.88 era and a 1.00 whip across 67 innings. Darvish was put on the injured list this week with an elbow that may shut him down for the rest of the season. The right-hander was not meeting his 2022 numbers when he posted a 16-8 record with a 3.08 era and a 0.98 whip. This year, Darvish has an 8-10 record with a 4.56 era and a 1.30 whip. After struggling in May and June with an era over 5.00, he started to find his groove with a 3.62 era and 32 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. Yet after giving up four or more earned runs in each of his last three starts, he was shut down with perhaps the elbow injury impacting his performance. The bats have underperformed this season. San Diego has just a .239 batting average on the year with a .324 on-base percentage and a .408 slugging percentage. They have only been a .500 team at home at Petco Park with a 33-33 record, yet they have won only 29 of their 68 games on the road. The Padres still appeared capable of making a run to take a wildcard spot in the National League at the beginning of the month. Yet as the MLB season enters its final month, San Diego will need to suddenly play their best baseball and finally get some luck on their side to make the playoffs. Bettors may be better served in assuming their descent into mediocrity only continues the rest of the way.Good luck - TDG.

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Don't Sleep on Hawaii as a Dangerous Underdog

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

Hawaii may not contend for the Mountain West Conference championship this season, yet bettors should pay attention to this team since they could be a profitable underdog as the season moves. They were better than their 3-10 record indicated last year. The Rainbow Warriors were not ready to play in their opener last season against the Commodores. Rookie head coach Timmy Chang took over a program that could not field a complete roster eight months prior in the Hawaii Bowl with the team imploding in backlash of the coaching tactics of the previous head coach Todd Graham. Many players transferred away. Yet Chang and his coaching staff kept working, and the team showed improvement just two weeks later in a 56-10 loss at Michigan where they were more competitive despite being installed as 52-point underdogs by the oddsmakers. Of course, that Wolverines' group was on their way to compete in the college football playoff. Chang decided to incorporate run-and-shoot passing principles into the offense soon after to bring back the offense he operated as the Rainbow Warriors quarterback in the early 2000s. That change in scheme helped make the offense distinct while the team had a new sense of identity that traced back to previous traditions of the program. Hawaii covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games. They upset Nevada by 15 points despite being a six-point underdog. They upset UNLV as an 11-point underdog. They only lost to San Diego State by two points (as a 23-point underdog) and on the road at Colorado State by four points. They then lost to Colorado State by four points and Utah State by seven points. Chang had the opportunity in the opening week of the season to use their rematch with Vanderbilt as a benchmark game for his players to prove that they are much better than they were last season at this time in their opening game of the 2022 season. It was only a 21-10 lead for the Commodores at halftime in last year’s game before Vanderbilt scored 35 unanswered points in the third quarter. This year’s team has better depth and has learned to fight back. Last Saturday, they were trailing by a 35-14 score before scoring the final two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to lose by only a 35-28 score. In the end, it was a Vanderbilt 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that made the difference for the 17-point home favorites. Hawaii outgained the Commodores in yardage, 391-297, and their nineteen first downs were two more than what Vanderbilt gained. Junior quarterback Brayden Schager completed 27 of 35 passes for 351 yards with three touchdown passes. Chang had to be encouraged by how he operated the run-and-shoot with just eight incomplete passes. He only completed 55.3% of his passes last year. With the narrow loss to begin their season, the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in five of their last six games when the oddsmakers install them as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Hawaii may struggle to become bowl-eligible this season, yet they should offer some intriguing opportunities for bettors this season as an underdog. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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Five Observations Heading Into the College Football Season

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

As the College Football season officially kicks off Thursday with four games, there are storylines dominating the sport, and some that may or may not be recognized.But there are certain teams with certain backstories that may help you when handicapping games.Here are five observations to consider:UKNIGHTED -- The Big 12 expands to 14, with the 2023 campaign being the swan song for Red River rivals Texas and Oklahoma. But the real story in this conference could end up being newcomer Central Florida. The Knights enjoyed varying levels of success before their arrival, and bring a wealth of talent with them to the Big 12. With the race for the conference title wide open, TCU coming off its national championship game appearance, and surprising Kansas State looking to feed off its Big 12 championship, the Knights have a very good opportunity to make some noise in their debut season.WHO'S NEXT -- Last year it was TCU making it to the national championship. The year prior, Cincinnati got to the semis. Before that, Notre Dame returned to prominence. Every year the question arises, who will be this year's team to jump in with the SEC, Big 10  and Big 12 stalwarts? Look no further than South Central Los Angeles, where the USC Trojans return the nation's top quarterback in reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Remember, a hamstring injury hampered him in the Pac 12 title game last season, and the loss to Utah ruined USC's chances at a trip to the playoff series. This being the Trojans' final season in the Pac 12, it would make all the sense in the world to see them shock the world.MAC ATTACK -- Miami-Ohio's first three games could prove to be a catalyst in how the Redhawks play down the stretch. The Redhawks open with three straight road game - at Miami (FL), Massachusetts and Cincinnati - immediately putting their defense to the test. Coach Chuck Martin has done a good job in cultivating the culture in Oxford, and this year has an experienced defense that will be battle-tested by the time the Redhawks open conference play at Kent State on Sept. 30.SEC FREEZE -- Hugh Freeze did a remarkable job at Liberty, and after turning that program around, he returns to the SEC. Freeze is back in the West Division, as he takes over the Auburn program after leading Liberty to a 34-15 record and three straight bowl wins. Bryan Harsin didn't show us much in his two years at the helm, as he quickly learned Auburn is much different than Boise. With the experience he's had in the SEC, and knowing how to prepare for that type of schedule, Freeze will be an interesting coach to keep an eye on, especially before the conference schedule gets underway.REBELS WITH A CAUSE -- Yes, we have to include UNLV in this column, considering the culture has changed dramatically under first-year coach Barry Odom. The Rebels are looking to play like an SEC team considering that's where Odom has sewed his oats. Word out of camp is that practices, meetings and workouts feel much more like a big-time college program, than in past years under Marcus Arroyo and Tony Sanchez. UNLV opens with Bryant, but then faces a Michigan team that won't have Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines for that game. That'll be a fun line to see, and possibly jump on if the price is too high. The Rebels as an underdog will be something to watch.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 08/31/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Aug 31, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NCAAF and MLB action. Week 1 in college football kicks off with four games. Central Florida hosts Kent State on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Knights come off a 9-5 season that ended with a 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl. The Golden Flashes were 5-7 last year after failing to reach a bowl game after a 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference. Central Florida is a 35.5-point favorite, with the total set at 56 (all odds from DraftKings). North Carolina State travels to Connecticut on the CBS Sports Network at 7:30 PM ET. The Wolfpack were 8-5 last year after a 16-12 loss to Maryland in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The Huskies finished 6-7 after a 28-14 loss to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. NC State beat UConn by a 41-10 score at home at Carter-Finney Stadium as a 38.5-point favorite on September 24th last year. The Wolfpack are a 14.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5. Minnesota plays at home against Nebraska on Fox at 8 PM ET. The Golden Gophers finished 9-4 last year after a 28-20 victory against Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl. The Cornhuskers were 4-8 last season. Minnesota was last year’s meeting, 20-13, on November 5th as a 15-point road favorite. The Golden Gophers are a 7-point favorite, with a total of 43.5. Utah is at home against Florida on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Utes were 10-4 last season after a 35-21 loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl. The Gators finished 6-7 after a 30-3 loss to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl last December. Florida upset Utah by a 29-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog on September 3rd last year. The Utes are a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44. Major League Baseball has four games on its schedule. The New York Yankees visit Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 PM ET. The Yankees won their third straight game with a 6-2 victory in the third game of this four-game series on Wednesday. The Tigers are on a four-game losing streak. New York turns to Clarke Schmidt to pitch against Detroit’s Matt Manning. The Yankees are a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins play in Washington against the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET. The Marlins have lost five of their last six games after their 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. The Nationals have lost three of their last four games after a 7-0 loss at Toronto yesterday. Braxton Garrett gets the ball for Miami to pitch against Joan Adon for Washington. The Marlins are a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants are in San Diego to play the Padres at 9:40 PM ET. The Giants were on a three-game winning streak before a 4- 1 loss at home to Cincinnati yesterday. The Padres lost for the fifth time in their last six games after a 5-4 loss at St. Louis on Wednesday. San Diego sends out Pedro Avila to face a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Giants. The Atlanta Braves visit Los Angeles to play the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET. The Braves are on a three-game winning streak after a 7-3 victory at Colorado yesterday. The Dodgers have won four games in a row after a 7-0 win against Arizona on Wednesday. Spencer Strider gets the start for Atlanta to battle against Lance Lynn for Los Angeles. The Braves are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.

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Early Season College Football Betting Trends

by Oskeim Sports

Wednesday, Aug 30, 2023

College football has a unique Week 0 where only a select few teams make their debuts, unlike the NFL where every team plays on the opening weekend. Fourteen FBS teams started their seasons last weekend, with the majority (13 of 14) playing again in Week 1 against a team playing in its first game of the year. That raises a question of which is more crucial: Is it better to have game film of an opponent with a rest and preparation edge or is it better to have played a live game already?  Teams that haven’t played can view their opponent's performance from the first game if they played in Week 0. That can be a huge benefit. Teams that haven't played yet may also have an advantage in preparation. Teams who didn't play in the first week of the season don’t have film. That means their opponent has yet to see them play.  For teams that don’t play in Week 0, the extra rest is beneficial as is not having to travel or deal with injuries suffered in a game. Look at Hawaii, which played Saturday night after a lightning delay in the humid climate of Nashville. Their athletes had multiple cramping issues and then had to travel over 4,000 miles back home.  They will play against Stanford on Friday night, making it an even shorter week for the Warriors. Stanford was off last week and will make the trip to Hawaii with extra rest.  How does it all play out? Historical Trends The answer is obvious in terms of historical against-the-spread (ATS) odds. The team making its debut has an advantage. Historically, teams playing their season opener against an opponent who has already played, including FCS teams, have covered at a rate of just under 55%. The lower limits are a result of the FCS market's significantly lower efficiency. As a result, if we only consider FBS teams, they have performed slightly better, going 56-33 ATS (62.9%), since 2005. Only games played in August and September are included here. This eliminates eight season openers for Mountain West and Pac-12 teams in 2020 that started the season late because of pandemic-related issues. Due to their upcoming games against FCS opponents, Ohio, San Diego State, New Mexico State, FIU, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, UTEP, and Jacksonville State did not make the cut. Navy, which has a bye this week, didn’t either. 2023 Games To Consider There are five games that fall into this category. Nevada plays at No. 6 USC a week after the Trojans won their first game against San Jose State. Nevada is a 38-point underdog. The Spartans, after suffering a 28-point loss to the Trojans in Week 1, will take on No. 18 Oregon State on Sunday afternoon.  The three other games are as follows: ●     UMass at Auburn (-38) - UMass beat New Mexico State last week.●     Louisiana Tech @ SMU (-20) - La. Tech beat FIU last week.●     Stanford (-4) @ Hawaii  - Hawaii lost to Vanderbilt last week. Future Considerations There are no conference matchups that fit this scenario this year. It’s a small sample size, but there is a big trend to watch when a team makes its season debut against a conference opponent that has played in Week 0.  There have been 17 such games since 2005. The team making its season debut is 14-3 ATS - that’s an 82.3 percent cover rate - and the winners are covered by an average of right around a touchdown per game.  You could argue that teams in that situation have an even greater film advantage and may unleash an even greater frequency of new looks. Just something to remember for future seasons.

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